♪ >> situation in ukraine is critical for raw materials. >> it is adding fuel to the already well kindled inflation fire. >> the longer it goes on, the larger the ramifications are. >> it is really putting the fed into a bind. >> they absolutely have to get off the zero bound. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: bouncing back from a four day losing streak. good morning. for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we had the action from the president of the united states. we wait for the reaction from russia. tom: the zeitgeist today is a little more eventful than it was yesterday, but what i notice in

the last hour, there's a more constructive tape. it is not a turnaround, but there's a relaxation from the tension witnessed by euros swissie and gold. jonathan: if you're in the treasury market, you start to think more about cpi tomorrow morning. the highest we have gone back to 2016. tom: is inflation tomorrow like payrolls last week? nobody really cares. jonathan: can you ignore cpi tomorrow like we ignored payrolls on friday? lisa: it gives you a sense of where we are starting from in terms of how much inflation can go up. how much are we looking at momentum that will only be accelerated by what we are seeing in the commodity space? jonathan: elsewhere, more

sanctions from the eu and ursula von der leyen in the last hour or so. "we are further tightening the net of sanctions, responding to russia's military aggression against ukraine." oligarchs, the banking sector in belarus. there was a conversation this morning about peak sanctions. we have been discussing that. peak sanctions where? from who? the russians this morning, this coming from the russian president's spokesman, says they may rethink energy commitments after sanctions. i don't think we have fully realized how this will play out in the coming leaks -- the coming weeks and months. tom: it is about leakages of power, and what the secretary of commerce said overnight, what gina raimondo said is the leakages through china is maybe the one thing we have to focus on. jonathan: in "the york times --

"the new york times," a stern warning to companies that might defy sanctions, saying they would get their own sanctions. lisa: how does this end if you got the u.s. pressuring china to distance itself when russia, when there are reports that china is considering taking stakes in some of the major commodity players in russia, as all of the big players pullback? how much is this going to evolve into a u.s.-china issue as much as a u.s.-russia issue? jonathan: on the nasdaq, up 1.8 percent. we talked briefly about turning the price action of a couple of days upside down somewhat. yields higher by six basis points to 1.90 79% on tens. on crude, down 3%. lisa: things are moving quickly. the volatility unprecedented in so many asset classes.

does any of the economic data we are getting matter? i would argue it does. this particular data point matters quite a bit. we get the january job openings data showing how many people are missing from the workforce. we have nearly 11 million job openings in the u.s. how much does this edify the feeling from jay powell of an overheating labor market? it is backward looking, but it gives you a sense of how much moment him there is heading into a time where disruptions are only going to continue, at least for the foreseeable future. today we get i.e. a -- we get iea crude oil inventory reports. how much do we see a response to what we are seeing in the price action, the highest levels going back to 2008? at noon, the world agricultural report. food security all around the world. we are seeing wheat fluctuate. the volatility has been absolutely unprecedented. soybean oil futures i have been

watching, especially given china's dependence on some of the ukraine and russian imports for some of these products. at 1:00 p.m., the u.s. is planning to sell $34 billion of one your notes -- of one year notes. still far below where they should be if you believe the inflation expectations, and you can see that in the real yield, still deeply negative, down more than 1% below zero. jonathan: thank you. hearing from prime minister boris johnson in the u.k., speaking in the house of commons, going on to say they will unveil the u.k. energy plan in the coming days. this report from interfax, the russian president vladimir putin to meet with government members tomorrow, march 10, to discuss minimizing sanctions impact. the amount of companies that have pulled out of russia in the space of a couple of weeks, what will that labor market look like in the next few months? tom: that is the key phrase,

labor market. one of my themes starting this morning was the basic idea of what is the growthiness of all of this upset we are seeing? we are staying away from the measurement of economic growth and what is the key to politics. politics is about jobs, and it's got to be front and center for mr. putin and his people. jonathan: team coverage starts now with bloomberg's annmarie hordern. the president has made a move, and now we need to see what he does next the energy front. what are you focused on? annmarie: today i want to see what russia says that they are going to come out within terms of this banning of commodities. what could we see in terms of repercussions, less so for the united states which is definitely more insulated when it comes to reliance on russia, but definitely for germany? this is going to be a big problem. i spoke to the former yugo ceo who lives in exile now, and he

said this was a massive mistake for western europe to be so reliant on russia when it comes to fossil fuels and commodities. tom: tom mackenzie in poland, away from ella roos, on the border with millions of refugees. i am not seeing enough reporting on what happens next. the refugees get to the border. then what? tom m: we are on the border crossing between poland and ukraine. logistically, there are facilities in place that have been put in place by the polish military, by the polish police, and volunteers all over the world. but logistically, this is just the beginning. they've had that journey through ukraine. they have waited for hours, overnight, 90% of them women and children, in freezing conditions. this is just the start logistically. they have to work their way through poland if they find a

place of residence, and indeed other parts of europe. the polish government has put aside $7 billion to help fund this. you are absolute right, we are in the early opening stages of this. one point numeral people into poland just in the last 12 days alone -- 1.2 million people into poland just in the last 12 days alone. tom k: between romania and poland is slovakia and hungary. do they have the residence -- the reticence that is being reported in the united kingdom on taking in refugees, or are they using those two borders? tom m: they have been more generous, certainly. hungary has taken in about 200,000 refugees from ukraine, but that compares to 1.2 million for poland, so poland is taking in the vast majority. the u.k., last i saw, had just

issued 300 visas or thereabouts. u.k. is a big player in this. other nations that border ukraine are taking in refugees, but it is poland front and center on this. overall you have seen 2.1 million refugees from ukraine, the biggest refugee flow in europe since world war ii. the united nations organizer here said he thinks they can get to 4 million in the next few weeks. lisa: given this backdrop, this is why you get this earned gypsy -- this urgency and why we got the gina raimondo statement on taking actions on companies not complying with sanctions. do we get any sense on whether there will be action on that in the near term? annmarie: gina raimondo basically throwing out this threat to chinese companies, and it is a little reminiscent of what we saw in 2020 with huawei. that really crimped how huawei was going to expand. then you saw a number of countries not want to deal with

that company. this is what they are saying to china. if you go against these sanctions we have laid out, you're going to be cut off from the technology that your companies need to produce this material. so i think it was a pretty stark warning to china, trying to shift china's stance in terms of how they deal with president putin and russia. jonathan: always great to catch up. fantastic reporting, as always. that headline that we got from reuters on china, that got my attention, yours and tom's, too. china tell refiners to hold april fuel experts. that is the immediate focus for these companies now. lisa: energy security, food security, these are all immediate concerns, and part of the reason why prices have been fluctuated so much in the oil patch, as well as in other soft commodities, simply because the likes of china are trying to stop i'll ahead of what they -- to stockpile ahead of what they see as increasing production. jonathan: that is why so many

are trading and backwardation come of this massive scramble to get everything up front now. tom k: and how does africa scramble on food? i am not quite sure we've figured that out. we have david malpass with us of the world bank. ben laidler this morning announces, this is all great. food will have a longer impact than oil. jonathan: energy gets so much more attention because here we are on wall street looking at crude, but froude -- but food we have talked about a million times. lisa: 80% of egypt's wheat comes from ukraine. jonathan: what a stat. crude back down 2.4 percent. wti, $120.75. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta.

in ukraine, president volodymyr zelensky says some civilians are escaping around kyiv after russia agreed to open he medicare in corridors, but not all of those pathways are open yet. meanwhile, the u.s. warns that russian forces are stepping up their bombardment of kyiv. democrats and republicans in congress have struck a deal on a long-delayed spending bill that funds the u.s. government and includes $13.6 billion for the war in ukraine. the measure would pay for refugee assistance and to replace weapons given to ukraine. president biden will order government agencies to take a closer look at issues surrounding the fast-growing cryptocurrency market, the first attempt at the government strategy on digital assets. still, it's falls short of providing clear direction on regulation, something crypto firms have been calling for. in south korea, exit polls show the conservative candidate with a slight lead, less than 1% that

separates them from the progressive. they are hawkish on china and favor closer ties with the u.s. billionaire bond fund manager jeffrey gundlach underscores the need for the fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. the ceo of double-blind capital says bonds are now overvalued, whilst emerging markets look cheap. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> you saw the president bring the iea together last week to bring together a coordinated release. we are actively consulting with our allies about whether it is appropriate to act and do more with those releases. jonathan: goodyear from brian deese, as always. futures this morning positive 1.6%. we bounce back from trudy's of losses on the s&p 500. the nasdaq up a little more than 2%. yields heading north, up six basis points to 1.907% on tens. crude lower $120.80.

the wall street journal, here's the quote from them. "the white house unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between president biden and the defective leaders of saudi arabia and the u 8 -- the defective leaders of saudi arabia -- the de facto leaders of saudi arabia and the uae." tom: i thought ellen was just brutal. she was direct. jonathan: the cartel, it is -- is it there to manage the market or the individual numbers? those things have never been mutually exclusive and the opec story. at the moment, it feels like it is leaning a lot more in one direction on the other. tom: right now with our global best in class commodity coverage is will kennedy. he does many things for bloomberg.

mr. kennedy joins us this morning. i want to guess that when you were in a dorm room at the university of sussex a few years ago, you had an electric bill or a gas bill to pay. i think this has been underreported. how much and when are those bills going to skyrocket for sussex, the rest of great britain, and for that matter, europe? will: well, it was more than a few years ago, but i think you raised a very important point, that there is a storm coming here. there was already a storm coming before the war, that gas and power prices in europe were at unprecedented levels, and that is only intensifying. gas is down a bit today, but it has rocketed up in the last few weeks. there have been unprecedented levels of many multiples of what they were years ago. almost everywhere there are

subsidies in place, but governments are increasingly going to face a very stark choice, even as they spend hundreds of millions of dollars . either they subsidize people's energy bills or there will be a cost-of-living shock unlike anything we have seen yet. tom: i am not smart enough to guess the pipeline. which pipeline has your most acute focus this morning? will: i think it is probably nord stream one because the russian government reiterated a threat that it first made a couple of days ago that it is considering energy supplies and reacting to u.s. sanctions, european sanctions by cutting supplies themselves. the pipeline they have highlighted is everyone talks about nord stream 2, the new pipeline which is now not going to happen, but for a decade or more there has been nord stream one. there are hints from moscow --

where they follow through remains to be seen. they have always emphasized we are a reliable supplier, and in this situation we may not be. lisa: certainly another big story people are focused on are the wheat fields in ukraine. i say this is wheat has been experiencing the most volatility ever. we were talking with the ukrainian central bank president. jon was asking about how long people can remain out of those fields for it becomes a serious food security issue for the world. how far are we from that point? do you have a sense? will: i think the world has a food security problem already. wheat has risen almost 80% this year. edible oil price is something

keenly felt by households, especially in emerging households where edible oils rep isn't a huge portion of their everyday spending. the crisis are here. -- the crisis is here. people are feeling this already, and they will feel it much more as a ripple through the food supply chain, but i don't think anyone thinks this is something that is dependent on what happens on the ground in ukraine over the next few weeks. it is here. ukrainian exports are close to the world. russian at -- russian experts are very hard to trade. we heard yesterday that those two countries account for 10% of the calories traded globally, if you want to look at it that way. the only redeeming feature is that rice prices, which are hugely important to asia, have not yet risen. but that aside, this is a food crisis on par with what we saw in 2011.

jonathan: are we seeing any signs of increased and nationalism kicking in in places? the eu has a huge farm lobby. a story from reuters in china asking refiners to hold exports. using we will see that across a range of commodities? will: i think governments are going to have to become more involved and there is a kind of protectionist measure. i think some forms of rationing are going to come on the table, whether that is the management of industrial demand. i think we are going to see a real squabble. think about the lng market. europe has put forward this plan to replace 2/3 of russian gas this year. that means bidding whatever it takes to lure lng away from asia. what does that mean? that means there's less for japan. they will have to use more coal. four emerging companies like pakistan that rely on this to

keep their economies going, this is a crisis. governments are going to have to get more involved. we have seen the german government direct refund lng purchases this summer so that germany can build up its stockpiles. all of these things are coming, in our view. jonathan: will kennedy, brilliant as always. thank you, sir. that is the reality. i don't think that conversation has got started in a major way. that line that we could have days where you can drive an automobile, we need to pull back on energy consumption, and governments have not even started having that conversation yet with the public in a major way. tom: we had in the 1970's. i did a chart of the bloomberg commodity index, and let me cut to the chase. even with this lift up, we are no where we near where we were in the 1970's. mount spent on food in egypt, 31 percent. amount spent on food in america, 9%.

jonathan: on the nasdaq, up 2%. yields climbing -- yields climbing higher six basis points. crude down to $119.80. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: looking over to europe, the only two industry groups in the green for the year are the only two groups in the red for the session. up 1.6 percent on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, up a little more than 2%. going into tomorrow, the story for cpi in america, very close to 8% is the estimate. here's the bond market, twos, tens, and 30's. about 14 basis points north of where we are at the moment. the twos are through the highs of the year, very close to 1.67 now, up five basis point. that curve has got flatter, down to about 25.

the conversation lease has been pushing for quite a while now, will this federal reserve have the appetite to start an interest rate hiking cycle through the year with twos and tens already that tight, that flat? tom: part of the overly is the three year auction did not really go all that well. you see where the libor ois and all of the other measurements of short-term trust are. there's a tension into this report tomorrow. jonathan: did tom just quote an auction? lisa: i was really in shock. it shows the concern that people have a naming term about the inflation outlook and the response that the likes of jeff gundlach have said have to be strong and have to be soon. jonathan: that is the inflation story. let's look at crude and think less about inflation, more about perhaps growth and demand. with brent at 1.24%, let's call it 1.25% -- at 120 four dollars,

let's call it 100 when he five dollars -- at $124, let's call it $125 come at -- lisa: you've got a lot of credit officers trying to lend as quickly as possible so they can boost the bottom line, when conocophillips' ceo said we are getting to the point of demand instruction here at $120 a barrel. jonathan: the last couple of days upside down in the market. that is the cross asset price action. let's say good morning to romaine. romaine: upside down from the previous two days. the big cap tech stocks are trying to get their mojo back. apple coming off of four days of losses. the shares higher about about 2%. all of the tech stocks following that lead. meanwhile, a lot of those energy stocks that have rallied hard

over the last few days are reversing that on the day here. chevron, which rallied nine straight days -- excuse me, eight straight days prior, the shares down about 3% in the premarket is a lot of people maybe take some of the profits off the table. keep an eye on bumble. this is tangentially related to the russia-ukraine situation. bumble has deep russian ties because of early investments. the company did reassure that not only are there numbers for the most recent quarter still solid, but the guidance going forward was still what they had said before the company said what is the effect from the war in ukraine. it should not have a huge material impact. shares higher by more than 20% on the day. a couple of quick things going on outside of the ukraine war. keep an eye on coinbase and the rest of the crypto stocks. we are going to get an announcement a little later today from the biden administration about a coordinated effort to finally provide some regulation for this

, and based on some leaked documents bloomberg has already seen, it appears that it could be a potential net positive for this industry. tom: the close, look for that this afternoon. an important headline for global wall street, s&p global to suspend commercial operations in russia. jonathan: there goes another one. how long is the list now? is it easier to list the companies that have not left russia at this point? tom: there's a huge body led by mcdonald's and coke. jonathan: mcdonald's, just how big is that historically to make that decision? tom: it goes back to the opening of russia. the first mcdonald's in moscow, the big news and the splash that made. let's do this now. let's try to do something normal in a very nonnormal time. goldman sachs out with great research on this. peter oppenheimer and sharon

bell out of london thinking about where we are. sharon bell joins us now, european strategist at goldman sachs. buried in your powerpoint is the thing i would note. in the united states we are pushing a one year anniversary of negative wage growth. with the shock of this war, this invasion, how embedded is our negative wage growth going to be? sharon: i think it is going to get worse from here, quite clearly. you've got places now which is in single hike -- in hyson sigel digits. i think everyone will be downgrading their growth forecasts. wages will be high, too. normally wages would be reasonably good. we are seeing incremental wage increases. but inflation is going to eat into most of that, if not all of that. so i think we still have negative wage growth.

it is probably worth in europe than in the u.s.. tom: i don't want to go abby joseph cohen on you, but i am going to do it. if you have wage growth, corporations adapt. is the surprise coming that we begin to see some dynamics of unemployment or underemployment? sharon: i think the wage market and momentum in the wage market generally is good at the moment. there are a lot of vacancies still. we see participation pick up as well. ultimately, companies do adapt, but i think the thing they really want to adapt to at the moment is the higher energy costs. those are rocketing higher. so adapting to those, becoming a little more efficient in the pace of those, that might need a little more investment, but investment often enhances worker productivity as well. so it is a complicated picture. i think what we are seeing now is a slightly worse gross inflation fixed in the u.s. and

a much worse gross inflation mix in europe. tom: we have certainly seen this expressed -- lisa: we have certainly seen this expressed in the euro and the european banking system. have we gotten to peak pessimism , especially around the prospect of fiscal spending that starts to become possibly more realistic? sharon: there are things europe could do, absolutely. fiscal spending is the obvious thing. there's going to be spend on energy security. europe has talked about issuing more euro bond debt in order to finance spending. europe was planning to do the recovery fund anyway this year, and we start to see those moneys. top of all of that, perhaps some cushion for particularly lower income households when it comes to their energy costs. but with all of this, there is a

deep negative here which are these higher levels of inflation , and potentially demand destruction. the market is down about 20% from its peak, on a pe european valuation around 12, 13 times. that is a little bit below average, but it is not at the trough levels we saw in the pandemic or previous crises like the financial crisis or sovereign crisis. so i think it is difficult to see a very short-term shock. lisa: do you think the banks in europe have been oversold on the fear of possible exposure to russia and a slow down at a time when there. has not been a lot of clarity until now -- when there has not been a lot of clarity until now? sharon: by definition, exposures on the face of it are quite small. it can make quite a huge difference to the banking sector. you know their direct exposures. for example, they have business

in russia, and perhaps they can close out. but they can have indirect exposures, exposures to the liquidity problems and the commodity market, etc. in terms of bank valuations, they are now extremely low. place values in europe are almost at trough levels. so yes, i feel that they are getting good value for the medium-term investor. jonathan: sharon bell of goldman sachs, the medium-term investor. what is the medium-term investor, just quickly? what time horizon is that? sharon: for me, the medium-term investor is about six months. how much volatility you have at six months, absolutely low. you could be up and down each day. we have seen intraday volatility in the single-digit percent easily, so you could have a lot of volatility around that, but

lots of investors are more medium-term, thinking about portfolios that are 3, 6 months out, or even longer than that, several years. tom: was that work economics going after basque economics? jonathan: just working things out, tom. sharon, good to catch up. i do that every morning from six to talk to nana clock eastern. tom: let me translate this quickly because we got serious headlines to get to. in america, we don't do medium-term. in europe, particularly in britain, they are dipped into it -- they are addicted to it. jonathan: i think what sharon is saying there, on the bounce, and maybe not own for the cycle because this has been the value story of the last decade or so, the value trap and not a value opportunity. lisa: don't buy it. maybe that is another way of putting it as we see the longer-term trajectory and much

more potentially dire straits, particularly if there is not fiscal spending europe. jonathan: european banks up a little more than 5% over the month. up 1.6% on the s&p. futures bouncing back on the nasdaq by almost 2%. yields higher by six basis points. 10 year yield through 1.90%. crude back through $120 to the downside, $119.80. we are -3.2%. coming up, the conversation with david malpass, president of the world bank. you do not want to miss that. with tom keene lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro, for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. heineken has joined the list of companies that has quit doing business in russia. the dutch beer maker is stopping exports to russia and halting

investments there. the move comes a day after mcdonald's and paypal announced they would timber early halt operations in russia. the former ceo of russia's you costa oil says it has moved to totalitarian. he told bloomberg's annmarie hordern that change is coming to moscow. >> the regime will change, no doubt about it. before it might have taken 10 or 20 years from now. now it may happen much faster. ritika: he also said all of russia's oligarchs should be targeted by sanctions. in hong kong, the plan to test the entire populace and for coronavirus this month has been put on hold indefinitely. instead the city will prioritize vaccinating the elderly. it will also increase the number of hospital beds to treat patients. the chinese nickel company at the center of a historic short squeeze in a package of bank lifelines.

they face billions of dollars in potential losses on short positions on nickel futures. u.s. authorities investigating barry gillis trading in activision blizzard futures just before micah soft announced it was buying the videogame company. other trades are also being investigated for yet he denies any wrongdoing. a spokesman says he merely spotted a bargain in the market. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

>> putin tried for 20 years to create division between the u.s.

and europe, and he has failed completely. we are more united than ever before, which also means we don't have the luxury to say some issues will be off the table. we need to be able to confront everything, and there should be no taboos. jonathan: that was the first vice president of the eu commission. just getting some headlines from the u.k. defense secretary in the house of commons. wallace saying the u.k. is considering supporting anti-air missiles to ukraine, saying they regard them as defensive. that headline coming moments ago in the house of commons. tom: translate his importance to prime minister johnson. i'm a foreigner. jonathan: it speaks for itself. we got to be working out what we can do for ukraine that would not be seen as escalation by russia, that would then involve nato into a conflict. isaac that is what we are working out when it comes to air support from maybe poland, and things like anti-air missiles when it comes to the u.k.. tom: let's get to the

institutional conversation of the day. we wait on the international monetary fund, but david malpass is at the world bank. to his immense credit, they have not taken down world bank research on the russian federation, but front and center on the front of the page of their website, the world bank group is taking quick action to support ukraine. david malpass, what do you do this morning? david: good morning, tom. i am grateful that our board on monday passed a major package monday afternoon, so that when he becomes available right away, meaning today or tomorrow, for ukraine. that helps them survive as they are fighting back against the russian invasion. it goes for things like food and doctors that they desperately need. today we look to build a broader

package that can begin to think about reconstruction as well, but right now we are focused on refugees, on the region, and on how you hold it together. tom: are you basically working at the border like the red cross? david: today we are working through the ministry of finance of ukraine, which still exists and is operational. so they are supporting the service and ukraine. we are not working with russia's -- with russians in ukraine or in russia. we have stopped all of our operations in both russia and belarus. lisa: there is a lot of focus on ukraine and helping refugees, as there should be. there's also a growing focus on nations that rely on ukraine and russia for wheat, for a lot of the commodities, thinking of

egypt, 86% of their import of wheat come from russia and ukraine. how are you preparing a package to help some of those countries as they deal with the food inflation and commodities inflation more broadly that they have not seen before? david: this is a huge problem for developing countries in general, and especially the poorest ones. people that are inland from ports are having a great deal of trouble getting food because the supplies have been cut off. i spoke with the prime minister of egypt on thursday or friday last week. egypt is a major importer from ukraine. fortunately they have storage and their crop will be coming in. as you look around the world, the key variables here are how can global production be boosted outside of ukraine and russia. the u.s. and canada and even mexico are major potential suppliers of agricultural products and energy, so making

it productively, rapidly available is going to be one of the key responses of the world to this horrible situation that is hitting ukraine. on efficiency, there's lots of things that countries can do and we urge. for example, in the u.s., the efficiency is constrained greatly by the jones act, by the ethanol mandates that are hugely de-productive. they cancel production. in europe they have restraints across their economy on what people can do and what they can produce. lifting some of that would add to the global supplies and help respond to the crisis. lisa: when you talk about efficiencies, how much are you also talking about car free days or perhaps restrictions on how food is consumed in certain places? david: i think everyone can conserve. what we don't want to see is advanced countries hoarding

things. it is incumbent on people to allow their supplies to go into the markets, and that allows them to get to the people who needed the most. that is part of an efficiency gain. think there are some cost savings that can be done, but as we look globally, the biggest issue is how do you really tackle the output that can be made available by each country? for example, there's nickel supply shortages. the london stock exchange stopped its trading of nickel. but indonesia is a big producer of nickel, and those can be ramped up as the world responds. the russian situation right now does not look like it will be a temporary one. it is a longer-lasting set of problems for the world in interacting with russia on oil, on wheat come on basic minerals.

jonathan: the risk of an increase, and escalation in nationalism, how do we prevent that from happening? david: i think it is very hard to do that. people live in nations and they feel nationalistic and patriotic for their nation. what we need to do is have a rule of law that is really meaningful. you had in the 1980's and 1990's, talked a lot about constitutional law for latin america. it was having severe problems forming democracies, and it matters a lot what your original statues are and how you can implement those. so worldwide, if we keep pushing on transparency, on rule of law come on people finding ways to resolve disputes without fighting, that i think is the way forward. unfortunately there arise

authoritarian leaders that do not do that. we will bake this in the bill, trying to have good governance for countries as we work with them. jonathan: david malpass, always good to have you. the risk of nationalism and protectionism that comes with it, the reuters report, you wonder who is next and on what with energy. tom: the world bank with the united nations out of rome has been superb on the science of food. we forget the absolute miracle we have seen on food costs. the united states with all of our prosperity, in the 40 years from 1960 2000, a drop in the percent that we spent on food was jaw-dropping. it is an even greater miracle in some of the poorer countries. jonathan: you heard that veiled threat from the president this morning that russia may rethink energy commence after the

sanctions. lisa: and that is leading a lot of countries to envision a world without the ties to russia they once had, and what will replace that. jonathan: it will take a wild to unravel and unpack all of that. futures this morning up 1.8% on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪

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>> the duration of this incursion is going to lay on the economics of europe and the u.s. >> we risk seeing a much more entrenched inflation. >> the news is moving at lightning speed and markets have done so along with it. >> investors are pretty calm, not panicking, not running for the exits. >> this says to me i am looking for opportunities to invest. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. one day before and inflation report