rising, it is natural gas and food, adding fuel to the inflation fire. >> we will see the market even out. >> it was always hard to get inflation calls right. it is even harder today. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a morning. good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," i am jonathan ferro. no breakthrough in turkey. tom: the war in ukraine is extraordinary. there is a separation from the ecb and the inflation report and the horrific news flow out of ukraine. and then you go down to negotiations in turkey. this is a morning of sadness and frustration. jonathan: mr. lavrov saying

russia wants serious talks with ukraine and belarus. then -- tom: i like what greg wrote. he said mr. pruden will have to fabricate his story. valley a -- vallier says how soon does mr. putin face a devastating depression? jonathan: you got the impression that vladimir putin was the man in charge. lisa: cease-fire talks were not on the table so that serious talks could ensue. they perhaps were not that serious. where are we in terms of a diplomatic solution when there is not an offramp for putin to save face and ukraine -- jonathan: are we going to talk

about inflation? we have to shift our attention away from the tragedy we saw in mariupol. lisa: it is hard to talk about economic data points when there is a humanitarian tragedy going on and images that are shocking to all of us. this shock exacerbates what a lot of people were saying with broadening inflation. what is the momentum coming into this shock and how much could it affect consumer spending, i know it pales in comparison to human tragedy but this is what economists are watching. jonathan: can we ignore cpi? tom: it will be interesting to see. the idea of framing out 8% and saying the path is to 9%. and with certain unraveling, out to 10% of inflation. the mixture of it will be important. you know what will be more

important, christie has to explain a response removed from mary a pole -- mariupol. she has a difficult valley to perform. jonathan: did you see jen psaki, yesterday? putin's gas hike, that is the communication am the white house. tom: the washington post released 58 minutes ago, an article the press secretary for the president -- where the press secretary for the president mentioned biological weapons, it was a spirited defense of the united states. the biden administration is in real time events that we are witnessing in ukraine and there is one word for this, grimm. jonathan: on the nasdaq, we look

something like this. the nasdaq 100, down 1.1 percent, following the biggest day of gains. in the bond market, yield markets down to basis points. the euro-dollar, -4/10 of 1%. prude is up a little more than four percentage points. -- crude is up a little more than four percentage points. lisa: we are talking about the ballet that christine lagarde will be performing. we get the press conference from ecb president christine lagarde. this will be interesting to watch. because of how she responds to the ukrainian crisis. we see the euro in focus right now. it is still weakening. it has been bouncing around a little bit. yesterday, there was a recovery. how much does she talk about the euro and the need to support it

as the inflationary pressure -- as there is the inflationary pressure that people are worried about. we are expecting 7.9 percent, which would be the highest back to the -- going back to the early 1980's. you can get a sense of how they go from high to higher. how much does this affect it when it comes to heading into the oil and commodity shock? what does that mean in terms of how much it could be turbocharged? at 1:00, how much conviction do investors have to come in and by? we have seen the 10 year and three year do not so well. people are concerned about what the longer-term outlook is. if you can't get a sense of what will happen over the next six months, let alone three months, how do you formulate a view on 30 years when people are saying

this is a new shock and new regime that will lead to higher inflation. jonathan: are you ready for the tom keene victory lap that is about to happen? lisa: i prepared. i heard the scream going out. jonathan: tom, amazon is up more than 6% in the premarket. you got your stocks split. a $10 million stock buyback. tom: first thing i thought is where is mr. buffett. this is about politics. i am on the same page as charlie gasper reno. this has nothing to do with finance. they be it has to do with joining the dow jones. it is about politics. -- maybe it has to do with joining the dow jones. it is about politics. they are trying to do everything to be more accessible to the people of america. jonathan: the symbolism is

important. are we moving away from the cycle, toward something a little more investor friendly? is that what you take away, not just from the stock split but the $10 billion stock i back? -- buyback? tom: it is not comcast. there is a point where the roberts family and comcast decided to make a determined rotation to a more normal income statement and balance sheet. i am not indicating that from amazon. but yes, it could be a change for the company. lisa: you raise a good point. there is a shift that is going on with amazon. we have seen it with the underperformance of some of the big tech stocks. does that mean they are done with the bigger kinds of moves in terms of strategy? jonathan: typically we spend a

lot of time on that but that is not the top story. the top story, talks between the ukrainian and foreign ministers in turkey. this is what the ukrainian foreign minister had said. >> we offered a 24 hour cease-fire, we did not make progress on this. it seems that there are other decision-makers for this matter in russia. we agreed to continue efforts to seek a solution. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, i want to come to you. can you run us through what we are looking for after the stocks in turkey today? >> it is closed press.

the readout is the opportunity to get president biden's reaction to the lack of progress in the turkey talks that went on, that did not yield anything. it is another opportunity for biden to follow through on the energy sanctions, as he has been pushed by congress and a bill is going through that would essentially require what he has already started on with the energy sanctions on russia. again, they are keeping closed press. there is a statement following up on that call. tom: good morning. what i find interesting is the product -- is they make another step. what is the sanction -- what is the option if they decide to

make further sanctions? >> they talked congress out of requiring further sanctions on top of the energy measures there were. there was a bipartisan push for some more tariff focused measures in this bill that the house just passed. the biden administration ask them to take -- asked them to take that off and leave this bill at the point that the biden administration had taken to cut off oil and gas and coal imports from russia. it seems they are trying to pump the brakes a little bit right now on forcing anything further. but yes, there is the conversation in congress that could come up in more bills on tariffs or, you have heard the conversation about blocking russian sales of gold. that just isn't something the biden administration is pushing right now. lisa: you are in poland right now. there is a huge humanitarian crisis. i know you are tracking a closely as are a lot of people coming into the nation.

there is a diplomatic concern about a bigger conflict in russia. what is the latest on the fighter jets that they are sending over? >> you heard from the u.s., rebuffing the government of poland, and offer to move those big fighter jets into u.s. hands and give them over to the u.s. the u.s. would, under the polish plan, would replace those jets and get those makes across to ukraine. that isn't going to happen because the services in washington are concerned vladimir putin would see that as an escalation. that seems to be dead in the water for the moment. what you're hearing on the ground from people here, we have seen hundreds of refugees crossing. one of the things they say is purveyed -- provide us with air

support. our towns and cities continue to be bombarded. we need the air support so we can go back home and get this war over and be resolved. we are a long ways from that. as a result, you can expect refugee flows across this border. this is just one crossing here on the polish border with ukraine. there are many others as the refugee flows continue. jonathan: thank you, sir. the team here at bloomberg, putting in a tremendous effort to give you the right voices out of europe on what is happening. no one is doing that better than maria tadeo. >> good morning, jonathan. i am happy to say i am joined by the prime minister of estonia. thank you for being with us. you have been incredibly outspoken about the russian threat. you said it from the beginning, this is a real issue in europe. there is a war extending now for 14 days. today, the russian foreign

minister acted as if nothing was happening. how can you engage with a russia that seems to be completely oblivious to what is happening? >> you can't. that is the thing. they don't have any diplomatic will to find a solution. they are building this narrative that they are selling back home in russia, that the west is attacking. there are biological weapons. this is now the third story that they are trying to tell -- sell to their people to say why are we doing this? why are we attacking our slavic brothers? it is hard to explain. >> you say slavic brothers. that is an important point, the culture that is shared by eastern europeans. when sergei lavrov says we are not here to talk about a cease-fire, this is not the goal and the ukrainian prime minister hints vladimir putin makes the decisions, how can you have a diplomatic way forward? >> i don't think they have the

political will to have a medic way forward. they want to cause as much -- a diplomatic way forward. they want to cause as much damage. putin has gone all in. he either wins or loses. it is up to everybody to make sure putin does not win the war. >> when you say putin does not win the war, what does that mean? >> that means ukrainians should win this war. we should not give in. we should help ukraine in every way we can, humanitarian aid, military aid. political support, so that ukraine will be able to defend its country. >> there is a line that says it is best not to put vladimir putin in the corner. is that a mistake? >> we have not put him in a corner but he has done everything that we are seeing right now. and it is heartbreaking to see

what he is doing. if we look at the bigger picture, he has been planning this for quite some time. all over the world, also trying to cooperate with different countries and plan carefully this attack. and also, having crimea, which went peacefully. he had a thought that it will go easy on ukraine as well. but it is not because ukrainians are fighting for their country. >> they have been doing this for two weeks. when you look at what vladimir putin is doing, it is an aspiration to return to the old soviet union. he said the end of the soviet union was the biggest tragedy in russia. >> he has been open about his

imperialistic dreams. he has spent years talking about these things. and also been very open about not recognizing ukraine as an independent country. i think we should take him for his words on what his thoughts and plans are. it is also up to us to make sure he does not execute those plans. >> of course, i want to ask you about nato. your country beguiling's -- belongs to nato. when it comes to nato, are we going to see an operation that is bigger in number and longer in time? will we see nato becoming stronger? >> yes, i think so. so far, we have had this to terence foster but now we are moving to the defense plan. there are different capabilities for how these things work together.

this is how nato should work. the defense plan is a defense alliance. >> more troops on the ground. we know there are two big topics. one is do we include energy in the sanctions and should ukraine be part of the european union, what is the -- your answer to those questions? >> i think we have to give hope to ukraine and some really clear political signal that they are part of the european family and they have a way to europe. they are literally fighting for europe right now. so, this -- we need to give them some kind of message. when it comes to energy, of course we talk about the sanctions. there is already the package of sanctions on top of it. what we have to understand, the different european countries have different energy defendants. it has two sides. one side is that we want to hurt

the war machine of putin and deprive him of his income. but the other side is that our public has to support the decisions made as well. >> you don't see a full ban on imports? >> i don't think so, no. i don't think so. >> thank you so much as always. i appreciate your time here on bloomberg television. jonathan: maria, fantastic work. good to catch up, maria tadeo with the prime minister of estonia. tom: the important question is the european union mentorship -- membership. this woman who leads estonia is essentially the great-granddaughter of one of the four or five founders of estonian, in world war i -- estonia in world war i. her mother was shipped in a cattle car to siberia when she was six or eight months old and came back to estonia 10 years later. she has a responsibility, as you

mentioned yesterday, with latvia and with the when you to make sure they are not the next ukraine. and to look north, across the gulf of finland to helsinki. and in the west, what does sweden do? jonathan: russia has no diplomatic will. compare and contrast that with the market conversation of yesterday. lisa: how much of it is just hope and not reality? at a point, i was struck with something the prime minister said, which is he is not backed into a corner and he is doing these things. at what point are we throwing that out as a potential risk? that risk is becoming reality. jonathan: futures are down 8/10 of 1%. nasdaq was down 1.1% after a big gains -- a big day of gains yesterday.

getting this headline from interfax, the russian president spoke to macron and schultz about ukraine by phone. that call has happened. the reporting suggests -- tom: it would be nice to hear from mr. putin but maybe we don't because he is a leader under a lot of stress. we have to see how the headlines go. for those waking up, this is a grim story in ukraine this morning. there is no other way to put it. futures at -35. 128 on ruble. a very, very weak russian ruble. eric robinson is following that. he joins us today. with great respect, greg valley

ier says putin is heading toward depression. is he heading toward being a frontier economy? >> that is probably the case. it is our view that the sanctions and the embargoes that have been put in place are putting an increasingly tight stranglehold on the russian economy. their ability to source revenues from being constrained, i think it will be difficult for them to maintain a source of revenue and free cash flow. i think this all goes very poorly for their economic outlook. lisa: can they avoid stagflation even if there is a pneumatic resolution, however hopeful and optimistic that is? or have we seen enough damage done to global trade that it seems to be a reality the east will be grappling with today? >> i think that is right. i think that this crisis has

certainly put a few legs of support under the inflation risk scenario that we have all been talking about. at the same time, oil prices are above $110 a barrel. base metal prices, nickel, a la minium, etc. this will have a major impact on demands. it will have an impact on business demand and business spending. manufacturing companies in europe will have to be a lot more disciplined. this is a scenario which all central banks, not just the ecb, will be facing. do they tighten in the face of what is expected to be an economic slowdown? we think they do. the risk of pushing a negative growth outlook is one to be considered. lisa: mark mccormick said there is a range for the bottom of some of these currencies. we may hear a different tone

from christine lagarde. how much are we expecting that? >> if we take the ecb out of the equation for a moment and we assume that this crisis or this conflict continues to deteriorate, there is obviously further downside risks for the euro-dollar and further weakening risks for c3 currencies. the ecb's willingness or ability to hike probably does stem the tide a little bit. effectively, what it does is it pushes european yields into positive territory. we know that is a key enabler for people to buy the european currency. can it cause a big turnaround? i think you need to see a

significant de-escalation of military conflict to see a major turnaround in euros. interest rates would support help stem the tide. jonathan: what a tough situation for the ecb president. if you are just tuning in, we have had talks already in turkey between the ukrainian and russian foreign ministers. no diplomatic breakthrough to be seen whatsoever. futures down, three quarters of 1% on the s&p. pushing forward to an ecb decision in around an hour and 20 minutes and onto a news conference at the same time, we get u.s. cpi. tom: you wonder if we will get some form of verbal, what i will call loosely, one and done. the idea of having x number of rate increases is just not going to happen. new zealand, norway, it doesn't matter. maybe you will get a verbal

statement today of, in the case of the ecb, we will not move but let us make clear our analysis, about one, tentative move. there are masquerades in mariupol. jonathan: i hear you. tom: the grimness of the last 24 hours has barely been captured by the western media. jonathan: let's be clear about that. we are both news junkies. the way the business media carried the story was stocks up, diplomatic breakthrough is possible. when you compare and contrast the financial market story of yesterday with what was happening on the ground, a disaster. this is why we see the pressure building from the likes of chancellor schultz. this, from his office, moments ago, following a call with putin and macron, demanding an

immediate cease-fire. that pressure will build and build. tom: those were headlines we were hoping to see 2, 3 and four days ago. jonathan: futures down, three quarters of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between ukraine and russia, futures down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. on nasdaq, we are down one full percentage point. the lowest day for mastec, going back to march 21. we get comments, they have a call with vladimir putin and demanded an immediate cease-fire. tom: some of the anger, looking for government action. we saw that from prime minister johnson in the last two hours. jonathan: we are going to work out the response we get from prime minister johnson, emmanuel macron, because there is one person in the mix, vladimir

putin. the news conferences, happening simultaneously between the ukrainian foreign minister and the russian foreign minister. sergei lavrov had-- no space to do anything whatsoever. futures right now, pulling back on the s&p. on the bond market, feds are shaping up. treasury yield is down, 193.22. think about where we have been on the two year yield. close to the highs, going into cpi. the estimate is 7.9%. let's look at the euro-dollar and the inverse correlation that deutsche has been talking about for a while between euro-dollar and bren. euro-dollar is weaker and brent is higher.

lisa: there was a discussion about the target of deutsche banks statement. they see $9 billion in payout. deutsche bank had been the recovery story. it had been the noncredit of the region. shares are down and down hard. it trends with all of the european banks. and though they don't have direct exposure to russia, the broader exposure is uncertain. they cannot fully engage the war impact, yet. jonathan: guy johnson caught up with the cfo of deutsche bank. we have an important guest next. tom: pierre joins us out of the university of texas, he is now at the london school of economics. peter is the writer of the wonderful marxist revenge. it is the clarion call of modern

capitalism. he is talking about the shadows of nazi-ism, harkening back to the empire, harkening back to post linen ussr -- lenin ussr. what is putin's theory this morning? >> great to be with you. however anybody wants to size up putin's motivation, they range from security imperatives, a response to nato and european union expansion to what you are suggesting here. like restoring the glorious soviet empire. this guy made a massive miscalculation on two fronts. first, he underestimated western resolve and unity and the capacity to resolve -- respond collectively. second, he thought ukraine was too fractured to respond the way they have responded. and it is just -- you know -- it

is like a shambles in that sense. does it mean that russia is owing to lose and it won't get anything that it wants? he is demonstrating that he is prepared to go where you just don't want to go. he has -- after alluding to it, you see all of these horrific photos and pictures. tom: do we need a ulysses grant right now? do you see the west with any idea of the sacrifices required to stop this guy? peter: the west, you are in a difficult position. you are not dealing with an ordinary power. you are dealing with a nuclear power. the problem here is to provide efficient support to the ukrainians, on many different dimensions. immediately on military grounds, to be able to push back and sustain the war effort.

at the same time, to avoid things that allow putin to escalate, that give him an excuse to do it. that is why no-fly zones, that is why the e.u. will be careful in response in versailles over how to respond to the ukrainians request for expediting memory ship into the european union. lisa: certainly markets were hoping for some sort of dip a medic solution or diplomatic talks. based on what we have seen, is there any potential dip a medic resolution to this conflict? do you -- diplomatic resolution to this conflict? do you have any optimism? >> i was not surprised and i'm sure you aren't, either, by the outcome in turkey this morning. peter: look, these talks are important, because it is a way for each side to get a better sense of the other side's

political resolve and, importantly, to get clarity on minimal acceptable positions. both sides began with their maximal positions and what i see is change on both fronts. the problem here is, somebody eluded, maybe it was tom, before i came on, lavrov is not speaking with putin's confidence. you don't know anything that he agrees to will be signed to or agreed to at home. we have seen two things treat let me finish on this point. one is, what we are hearing from this talk, these negotiations but also the negotiations involving the israeli prime minister is that putin is no longer looking for regime change. that the zelensky government has to go. on zelensky's side, they are willing to accept some form of

neutrality in lieu of nato membership. so, there is movement on both of those things. the problem is that both sides are making judgments, diplomatically, based on what is going on on the ground. lisa: yes. peter: that is very opaque. lisa: are the sanctions working quickly enough to exert the pressure on vladimir putin and, frankly, on his surrounding circle enough to boost the prospects of some sort of resolution here? peter: lisa, that is the $64 million question. the thing is that what those sanctions require is the ukrainians to resist. the longer they can resist for the sanctions to take thereby, the harder it will be for putin to convince those close to him that the cost of the war in

blood and treasure is worth the effort. it's not going to happen overnight. tom: she and her nation and her heritage of family back to world war i, what level of stress are the baltic states under this morning? peter: i think -- they have reason to be concerned. the main reason for them to be concerned is not that putin is going to pivot. putin has his hands full as it is. the danger is inadvertent escalation, it seems to me. that this thing just tumbles in ways that none of us can anticipate. that is why i think the biden team has been smart about the way they are handling this so far. most of the europeans have as well. i think this is a real present

problem for them, that this thing could spin in ways that is just everybody's nightmare scenario. jonathan: peter, thanks. tom, it is a difficult moment for more reasons than one. the pressure that is going to build on governments around the world in europe, in the united states to do more, because of the way this is playing out in real time, on social media, we are seeing the pictures, the devastation that is taking place in cities across ukraine. and for that reason, when people discuss the sanctions, are we really done? do you think we can get away with out -- without doing more? do you think governments can face down the pressure to not do more? tom: i went back as i was making the chart. i skimmed and did not read the wikipedia of this horrific six

month bottle -- battle in guadalcanal in the pacific. can you imagine if the horrific battle of guano canal, where there was a six-month news back out -- blackout, because they did not want to demoralize america in 1942. jonathan: we are seeing the pictures and it is deeply distressing. lisa: people have been uprooted and had to leave their homes with children, trying to figure out when they will see their parents, their fathers are still home and fighting. this is a devastating conflict. your point is a good one, john. there are measures natures -- nations can take and how much more can they do before they risk the spiral link that peter was talking about. the conviction is there, as they are horrified, watching the images. jonathan: we heard the chancellor demanding a solution,

demanding an immediate cease-fire. they have already made a massive shift over the last couple of weeks. lisa, do they need to make another one? lisa: the problem is they will be inflicting a lot of pain on their population and it is not a commensurate pain when it comes to human tragedy. but we can't ignore the stress that people are feeling with the cost of heating. it is a very difficult moment. i don't want to minimize that, as they try to penalize russia. jonathan: staying on top of the story at the moment with futures down a tenths of 1%. -- 9/10 of 1%. cpi and an ecb decision, just around the corner. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news around the word -- world.

the russian army unexpected struggles in ukraine are raising questions about just how good it is. vladimir putin's troops have failed to take control of key cities. organizations echoed past weakness. the house and senate want longer punishment for russia's invasion of ukraine. lawmakers approved legislation barring u.s. imports of russian oil. the vote came a day after president biden issued an executive order to ban russian crude imports. pimco released billions of dollars if russia defaults. at least five pimco --

in south korea, the election of the president could mean some big policy shifts. it led to greater private sector led growth. the top prosecutor faces a national assembly and the super majority has little appetite to help the domestic agenda. global news 24 hours a day, on the air, on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

>> we have been very focused on the first order impacts.

we have those very well under control. very modest exposure, about 600 million. from a market risk perspective, we were positioned and advantaged quite well through these early days. the second and third quarters of impacts are harder to judge, you say. i feel comfortable we have the second order effects contained and we are doing work with our first line and risk organizations to understand together with clients what the long-term ramifications might be. the markets have been dislocated in a number of different ways. in the early part of the year as people look toward a tightening cycle, more accelerated in europe than we anticipated. now, we have gone through a period of real volatility. jonathan: james, sitting down with guy johnson.

you can watch that later today on bloomberg television. futures are down 9/10 of 1%. the nasdaq, down a little more than 1%. breaking news from interfax, we have been waiting for this. earlier this week, the russians talked about banning the expert -- export of raw materials and goods to certain countries. we are getting a drip feed of a list from interfax. banning turbines and vehicles -- exports of turbines and vehicles and some kind of timber. lisa, i have not seen the big one that you're looking for. lisa: uranium is what a lot of people are looking at. considering how much of that supply comes from this region. some people are concerned about what could be on this list. jonathan: you've been waiting for it, tom, the russian reaction. tom: i was with a magnificent

pioneer group. this is phil and john. they have siberian timber investments, which is interesting to see. this is from decades and decades ago. they were challenged through all the turmoil of russia. that is and has always been russia's trump card, which is pure, natural resources. i would look for much more of those timber headlines. jonathan: the exports of turbines and vehicles will be banned and certain types of timber, the exports of that will be restricted, that from interfax. tom: boeing is looking at titanium. i don't pretend to be an expert on that. there are also other metals and minerals involved as well. with futures deteriorating, we do try to stay focused on what is what. and that would be to try to have a normal interview of the european central bank. right now, katrina doubly of --

dudley of franklin joins us. how difficult will this be for christine lagarde? >> we have gone from talking about the ecb doing early tightening, if we go back a few months. now, we are talking about reversing that stance. you are in wait-and-see mode and that is the right thing to do. i think all of the turmoil and supply chain issues that russia is causing, exacerbating what is already an issue, i think that you have to wait and see. the implications on inflation for example, you are talking about withholding supply. when someone withholds supply, prices go up. that is the other side. tom: franklin mitchell has such a heritage -- franklin mutual has such a heritage. what is your reading of price of fixed income and debt in europe?

how fragile is it? how big could the drop be given the shock of this war? katrina: the fixed income market in europe is not as deep as the fixed income market in the united states. i think that the banks are very understanding. and at the support of companies. we have seen companies pull back from russia and pulled back from russian investments. i think the banks will be there to support those decisions, which is causing companies to fold. lisa: there is a concern that we hear from a number of different market players of contagion of systemic risk. especially at these -- as these -- how close are you watching the potential exposure to derivatives, as we see these huge whipsaw moves?

katrina: i think we are watching the moves. i don't think anyone can sit there in a vacuum and say that they are not watching them. the killer behind commodity prices is high commodity prices. when the prices are very high, it encourages supply to come on. people are looking at the fact that the cause of the high prices is potentially something that could change. but on the other hand, we are talking so many ceos that are really focusing on supply chain resilience. the resilience will involve country risk assessment and understanding which countries have supplies and looking to see if you can diversify. you can diversify to a new supplier or you can encourage

and support that level of investment in order to diversify your supply. if you are seeing -- sitting in a ceo sweet and looking at commodity prices, we are looking on an equity by equity basis. i don't think we are holding onto these high prices and assuming they will deny them. i think you will see prices come on. jonathan: thank you, thank you very much. the headline from deutsche bank, let's return to it. from the cfo, we will adjust our russian presence along with clients. lisa, that is different from what we have seen from consumer goods companies and the luxury items companies and the automakers which have said no thanks, we are out. the bank has not taken the same stance over the last couple of weeks. lisa: how do they remove

themselves completely when they are still in debt to be paid out? when there are still instruments tied to russian assets? it is a complicated pictures while a lot of companies want to take the moral high ground. that is what is being commanded of them by consumers. what is being demanded by the banks clients? how many others are in the same boat? how do we engage the potential derivative exposure to some sort of event when it is called, which is not happened yet? jonathan: the call is going to go to the determinations committee, of which pimco is a part of. i am suggesting this one gets complex, quite quickly. tom: this is a financial discussion of financial instruments. there is a commercial aspect as well, which is what deutsche bank is talking about. i skimmed a phd thesis of this

in 1917. it is no different than it was then. it is these big banks extracting themselves from commercial relationships. jonathan: we believe it. we all believe it. futures down 1% on ecb. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> there's a big year which is high levels of inflation and potentially demand destruction. >> is adding fuel to an already well kindled inflation fire. >> it was always hard to get inflation calls right. it is even harder today. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: there is no diplomatic breakthrough. from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.9%. no breakthrough in turkey. tom: a breakdown in ukraine. i think as we look at ecb, we look at inflation, maybe we even chitchat, jean, the new slow out of u