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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  March 11, 2022 1:30pm-2:01pm EST

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with russia. he also announced a ban on russian-made vodka and caviar. speaking from the white house, the president explained what the steps will accomplish. president biden: this will make it harder for russia to do business with the united states, and doing it in unison with other nations will make up half of global economy, another crushing blow to the russian economy which is already suffering badly from our sanctions. mark: the president cannot unilaterally change russia's trait status because that lies with congress but the move has support from democratic and republican lawmakers. russia plan to send thousands of local fighters from the middle east along with weapons to join its forces in the ukraine. vladimir putin told the security council today, we need to help them to get to the conflict zone. the russian defense minister told the council that russia has
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received more than 16,000 applications from people in the middle east to help fight in two separatist regions of eastern ukraine. the texas supreme court today paved the way for the nation's toughest abortion law to remain in place. it is the latest defeat for texas abortion providers which have now lost at the u.s. supreme court and the state's highest court, since a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy took effect in september. the law lets individuals sue anyone who "aids and abets" an abortion once fetal cardiac activity is detected. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories that we are following for you from around the world. ukraine's top diplomat pushes back on the suggestion of positive movement in talks with russia, cited earlier by president putin. we will discuss the geopolitical uncertainty that continues to shake markets. a big surprise for canada's jobs number, with the country adding 330,000 jobs last month, blowing past expectations. meta platforms, the parent of facebook, getting hit with antitrust probe from the u.k. and eu. all that and more, coming up. jon: as we wrap up the trading week, it is unclear whether or not investors really want to hold stocks heading into the weekend, which would mean a down week for the s&p, off about five
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points at this hour. about 2% for the week. down more than 10% on the year. we know the headlines of where conversation between russia and ukraine are have been the driving factors. we did spend the morning higher, but that skepticism started to build, and the easy targets have been the technology stocks. if we start thinking about all the ripple effects of the markets, financial markets in particular, given the complications of what is happening in ukraine and russia, that is our for what it is worth segment. i am sure some of you saw what was happening with blackrock. we saw the financial times reporting that the firm has marked down russian securities across its funds in a substantial way. clients held about $18 billion of russian assets at the end of
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january. this is a story that is not going away. we were reminded earlier by damian sassower our, working through what is in managed accounts will take a lot of time, so we will have to watch this closely. matt: i think it has to be seen in context. in absolute terms, $18 billion is a heck of a lot of money but there should have been one more line on that graphic, which is blackrock assets under management. i believe they manage about $9.5 trillion. even if it is a large absolute number, 18 billion is a lot for any of us, even for elon musk, jeff bezos, but in terms of assets under management, only a small piece of the pie.
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we spoke exclusively to the ukraine foreign minister -- i think one of the most riveting interviews we have seen in a long time. annmarie hordern talks to him about talks with russia. >> there was zero progress, so it is hard for me to understand what kind of progress president putin is referring to. even we continued talking with russia, that does not have an impact on the behavior of the russian army on the ground. we believe the personal meeting between president zelensky and president putin would be helpful. we all understand that president putin is the decision-maker and you have to talk to him directly. the russian position changes all the time defending on the develop it's on the -- depending on the developments on the ground. because they have so far failed because of the resistance of the people of ukraine, they are adjusting to the new reality.
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still if you put all of their demands together, they demand an ultimatum of surrender from ukraine, rather than negotiating position. matt: joining us now is the partner and chief strategist at clocktower group. i'm curious to get your thoughts. that interview, i could not look away from, it was fascinating. above all, the human cost is something that you cannot discount, the tragedy of bombing hospitals is just unbelievable, to be frank. if you try and separate that from everything else, put a financial strategy at work, is
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the right time to be buying? would you want to be greedy while others are being fearful? >> absolutely not. and i'm very respectful and conscious on the buy on the side of guns adage. in fact i open with that, i have seen it printed by financial press as a reason to buy. the one conflict that stands out on that table is the yom kippur war in 1973. if you think about why the adage buy at the sound of cannons works, number one, most do not impact supply demands, this one does given russia's supply exporter. bull markets last longer than their markets. and conflicts often catalyze policymakers to stimulate, to respond to the conflict with some stimulus. in 1973, it was difficult for the fed to do that due to
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inflationary pressures. the case is the same today. i am not a buyer right now. other than commodities, i would be careful engaging in anything else. jon: the other question i've been increasingly wondering about, you see those long list of companies that have exited russia. i am curious, given the corporate climate and financial market climate, what kind of scenario allows for those who are pulling back to even consider going back to business as usual? what, geopolitically, would have to happen to change that? >> certainly the war would have to stop. at this point, the russian military has proved itself to be so incompetent, they are afraid to engage the ukrainian military in the cities, with good reason. they don't have any history of moving successfully into cities. they lost the first chechen war. that is the first issue.
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i think it will incentivize them to continue to use long-range all children re-against the cities. if you are the ceo of a company and you know that will be the case for the next month, you will not reengage with russia. in the long-term, unfortunately, it will be difficult for russia to attract some of these companies unless there is substantial political change. matt: do you think these sanctions are helping at all? it does seem a little bit more aggressive than i would've expected from the u.s. and europe a few weeks ago. they have really come together and organized against vladimir putin. is it going to slow him down? are we putting a wounded animal in the corner? >> those are two different questions.
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very binary outcomes. if it is a wounded animal scenario, russia doubles down on the conflict, but to what end? it is absolutely fantastical, bedtime stories for children, the idea that they are going to put up a puppet government in the ukraine. think about the challenges of the u.s., double-digit trillion dollar economy with the best military in the world. how difficult was it to impose on iraq and afghanistan, two populations that initially welcomed the invasion. how difficult that was. can you imagine what kind of cost and actual occupation of ukraine, even parts of ukraine, would impose on russia? even though you are painting a picture of a wounded animal, i think putin's constraints are massive here. eventually, the russian military
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will show all sorts of reputational costs, human cost, economic cost. that is why i think the war is much closer to ending then not, but the problem is sanctions. it is not clear to me that the u.s. as an incentive to take it easy on russia, even if the war ends. as a human, i want the war to end. but as an investor i'm not sure that the war ending will have meaningful impact on the markets. russia may have to retaliate to a permanent state of economic war against the u.s., self embargo on commodities, including oil. that can continue to be a driver of volatility for investors. jon: a lot to consider. thank you. the author of "geopolitical alpha." we are going to take a quick break. meta platforms getting hit with an antitrust probe from both the u.k. and the eu.
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we will talk about it in our stock of the hour, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller.
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time for the stock of the hour. meta platforms has made an enemy in russia -- where haven't they? prosecutors want to designate the company as extremist for allowing posts advocating for violence against its troops. abigail doolittle is looking at that. seems facebook has problems everywhere. >> it's been a tough year. these headlines, it is tough to know what to make of them. this is an interesting move, only because i would think facebook and instagram and whatsapp would not be in russia, but last week russia banned facebook and is not talking about doing that with instagram. matt: facebook would be a great tool if the u.s. cia could promote fake news articles about russia, for their consumption, you know?
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abigail: i believe that to your thinking, but it is interesting because there is not a lot of clarity. russia want to designate certain information and images as extremist, especially showing violence against their soldiers. whatsapp is the biggest piece in russia, instagram, and then facebook. investors at least today are nervous. we don't know if it is headline risk or if it could hit financials. jon: thanks very much. coming up, canada's jobs market blowing past expectations in february after the nation lifted its covid-19 restrictions. insight from frances donald. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman. here in canada, we got a job support for the month of february. one in the u.s. a week ago that showed some pretty healthy numbers. the numbers here blew past expectations. there were covid-19 restrictions they started to lift. at the end of the day, 336,000 jobs added, which more than makes up for the losses in the previous month. and a lot of people are now expecting the bank of canada, which already raised interest rates once this year, will continue down that path as we move through 2022. matt: it's a very positive surprise number. i doubt it has anything to do with the russian invasion of ukraine. just like i don't really think the inflation number we saw on this side of the border had much
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to do with the russian invasion of ukraine. that should come in next month's numbers, but a lot of credit is being given to the war because of the search. jon: let's put it in context. joining us is frances donald, strategist at man u life global. matt makes a good point, we had a pretty strong jobs number in canada today, pretty strong number in the u.s. a week ago but global uncertainty. when you put it together, what comes out on the other end? frances: how challenging for central banks, facing tight inflation, tight job markets. there is no cover to pivot do visually even if they want to with a flat yield curve in both canada and the united states. no data give them flexibility to say that maybe we should go more slowly. they just appear to be increasingly behind the curve,
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and that is why we hear about 50 basis point increase possibly from the bank of canada. but monetary policy acts with a long lag. what they do now will impact the economy with a one to two-year lag. we have heard from a lot of shops that recession's are rising, so what does the bank of canada do in the situation? they have to stay the course until they see declining inflation. inflation will be challenging because we are moving from covid created inflation to board generated inflation, which is a different animal. i wouldn't want to be a central banker right now, what a pickle for them. matt: it will be difficult for the fed, as well. the consensus is the rate hike in march is probably locked in. the question is how much further can they go? mike mckee was citing an economist survey earlier that said those schooled in the arts think we will only get four this
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year, and the market is pricing in seven. where are you? frances: i have three to four hikes and quantitative easing. i expect the economic data to slow quickly in the u.s. we are not facing a great situation in the u.s. or canada. huge drops in government spending are creating declines in monthly income. even the consumption is rising, that is coming from excess savings that is getting dried up. we have some of the worst declines in real wages that i have seen since the 1990's. consumer sentiment in the u.s. fell again this morning, at recession levels. all indications are that pmi's will decline. unlike history went typically we see central bankers hiking into strength, they are probably just going to get their foot off the gas and see things decline. that will give them little room to pivot. the challenge is making sure that inflation does not become
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embedded into our psyche. i expect the rhetoric to remain more hawkish than dovish for the next couple months. jon: anyone who has debt has to consider what you are saying. we are showing canada's debt to disposable income. what do you make of that trend? frances: this is the big challenge. candidate is in a little bit less than the u.s.. the canadian economy may want to cool inflation but it has two problems. the bank of canada can hike interest rates all it wants, it will not change global demand for semiconductors or energy prices or food prices. it is a drop in the global demand bucket that has created the global inflation. secondly, while it may want to hike interest rates to change our psyche, it is also much more exposed to housing. residential investment as a share of gdp is three standard deviations above the long-term average in canada.
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this will make it harder for the bank of canada to raise rates. it will have very little power to control. matt: are the rate hikes we are getting from canada, the fed, the bank of england, are they going to slow down growth to the extent that we get a recession in 2023? frances: that depends on how much they go. that is the whole purpose of hiking interest rates, to cool demand so that your demand-supply imbalances change. the problem is usually the fed is hiking into strength. this time it is hiking into declining activity. if they really want to engineer a soft landing, three to four hikes. recession probabilities will climb even more, so once again, our recession outlook is dependent on a bunch of people in a room. i love models, not a psychologist. it becomes difficult for us. matt: thanks for joining us,
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frances donald, man u life global chief economist, not a psychologist, but a good strategist. we are looking at markets -- this morning we had a much more bullish picture. right now the s&p is down a third of a percent. the nasdaq tech stocks underperforming, down more than 1%. jon: investors cautious about holding stocks into the weekend. matt: for jon erlichman, i'm matt miller. bloomberg markets. have a great weekend.
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news from around the world. i'm mark crumpton. biden is warning moscow against
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using chemical in its war on ukraine saying russia will pay a severe price if it does. the president called to her and with normal trade relations with russia a movie says will deliver a crushing blow to the russian economy, joining the cuba and north korea as the status. ukraine's top of that is pushing back on the suggestion on positive movement in talks with russia cited earlier by president vladimir putin. the ukrainian foreign minister spoke exclusively today with birds annmarie hordern. >> there was zero progress in the talks. it is hard for me to understand what progress through 10 is referring to. the russian army is killing children, civilians. it speaks for one side only.

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