♪ >> we don't know how this is going to come out. >> pushing higher prices on energy, higher prices on food. >> it has been a seismic exotic net shock that has had the system -- seismic exhaustion is -- seismic exhibit -- seismic exogenous shock that has hit the system. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, it is a monday of immense complexity.

yes, the fed meeting coming up on wednesday. the reset of the markets off the weekend. it comes down to the nuances of words. we have war. we have invasion. we have ukraine action. that from the kremlin moments ago. jonathan: hard to reconcile any hopes with what is happening over the weekend. 15 kilometers from the polish border, was that an escalation for you? tom: huge escalation in geography. no question about that. of course, the tragic death of the media gentleman from america as well. but i look forward to where we are now and what we have a dearth of is simply information that folds back into how we game uncertainty forward. jonathan: three big headwinds to this equity market at the moment, high commodity prices, tighter financial conditions driven by the fact that we get higher interest rates, and slower growth abroad.

on the final point, the shutdowns in china, the lockdowns in shenzhen a big issue for the forecast for global gdp. tom: i agree. you mentioned earlier, you say 20 million people. the chinese model is to shut down these great cities. there's even discussion of shanghai in some way being limited as well. that has to do with the pacific rim. you see that was we could japanese yen which i featured earlier this morning. the bottom line is if you have that slow down, how does that change what central banks do? jonathan: and how corporations adapt. apple needed to shut down production at foxconn. tom: you see that with apple, but i think there is so much more as well. the domestic interdependencies of the pacific rim, that gets you to the blended series in

asia ex-japan, rolling over almost four standard deviations from before this war. jonathan: tens just short of 2.1%. tom: the thing that we really haven't talked about this morning is washington. it is radio silence. lisa: right now, how much more can i do? how much negotiation is happening right now with europe to possibly take some more action on the gas front? i do wonder what they are looking at in terms of the domestic front, given how much and how quickly gas prices have gone up. that basically what everyone was talking about over the weekend. tom: here's the first headlines of the clear and present now. china same-store sales down in the first week of march. we will see a lot more of that.

jonathan: and we are expected to see a lot more. same-store sales were down about 4.1% in january and february, then down 20% the first two weeks of march, so this is getting worse and not better. tom: let's do the data now. i mentioned, phil orlando of federated, march and april as being important. vicks still above 30, 31.29. . -- vix still above 30, 30 1.29. jonathan: the euro almost back at 110. we talked about treasuries. let's talk about crude, 104 on wti, down almost 5% on the session. tom: let's get to it now. we have 70 different ways to go, but we will go to lisa hornby, head of u.s. multisector fixed income come on what yield measures in this global system,

with schroeder's. what does yield tell you now? what does it tell you as we stagger from lagarde to other central banks? lisa h: yield, i would say, today looks way more interesting than it did 12 months ago. we look at things like the front end today. you combine high-quality corporate credit now for a two year bond, so yield tell me that the opportunities are much more available now than they have been. i'm not sure that answers your central-bank question, but certainly it means the market has discounted quite a lot in terms of future hiking. jonathan: take me into high-yield. clearly, energy mix that picture look a little prettier than perhaps it is. how much damage has been done in high-yield credit in america? lisa h: clearly, risk premium is

elevated. we look at valuations across the board and we see that they are much closer to the middle of their historical range. on the high-yield side in particular, it is actually outperformed versus investment grade credit. while there is the benefit of having more energy exposure in the high-yield market, we lean a bit more towards investment grade given the uncertainties around the ramifications for the u.s. economy, given what is going on on the geopolitical side. lisa a: is high-yield debt actually pricing in the slow down would have to ensue if you believe some of the stagflationary headwinds, and frankly, if you believe a lot of the wall street notes that are getting updated? lisa h: i think u.s. high-yield is discounting still a reasonable growth rate in the u.s. european high-yield looks may be a bit more interesting, where you are seeing much higher default rates priced in north of 30%. you are seeing much lower growth rates.

for a u.s. dollar-based investor look myself, u.s. high-yield is interesting. obviously, yields north of 6%, but leading towards higher quality, just even the elevated uncertainty we have. lisa a: given that we started with such a low cushion, i wonder about the dual shocks of the fed hiking as well as risk increasing, not actually decreasing. the economy is slowing down. i wonder whether you see a more significant dislocation down the line and credit, given the fact that we have oath of these shocks coming down the pike. lisa h: that has certainly been the trade over the last several weeks. you think about the start of the year, it was all about the fed and are they going to hike too aggressively. then it became russia-ukraine and what that implies for inflation, making the fed's job even more difficult. they are trying to fight inflation and inflation to scott worst seemingly. i think what we are focused on is is the u.s. headed towards

recession over the next 12 months. that is how you decide whether credit is -- or not. tom: is schroeder's modeling a u.s. recession? lisa h: we are not. our base case is that we do not see a u.s. recession in the next 12 months, but certainly the risks are elevated, higher than we were if we had spoken about this six weeks ago. jonathan: is the potential for a fiscal policy initiative constrained america? in europe, do you think we are restrained? some suggest that could be the direction of travel? lisa h: absolutely. i think they are looking at energy independence, looking at defense. i think that is why you have seen rates in europe move as aggressively as they have to the higher side because there is this sort of idea that we need to do more. this russia risk is not going

away, even if the russia-ukraine situation stabilizes in the next 24 hours. the russia risk is not going away, so there needs to be a change to the model. i think that is exactly the point you are making. we will see more on the fiscal side. jonathan: thank you. we have this conversation as the german finance minister is speaking to reporters in berlin and saying germany needs more measures to ease the consumer burden. we have seen that a for going into this crisis from germany. from italy more so. they are going to have to repeat the act. the long list of companies pulling out of russia continues to build. seemingly every company has to expend what they are doing, what they aren't doing. pfizer saying they are no longer initiating new clinical trials in russia, to cease planned investment with russian suppliers. doesn't own or operate any manufacturing sites in russia, some clarification from pfizer. they conclude by saying they

cease planned investment with russian local suppliers. tom: i don't know what else to say. my amateur phrase here is to embed sanctions. you do sanctions, fine, but it is the then what, and the then what is this week. jonathan: who is left? lisa a: companies can't operate there, little and one to. there are threats of possibly nationalizing companies that stay there, and then there is the idea that ebay pulled out over the weekend because i could not execute the financials of their transactions because of all of the sanctions. you do wonder, how can anyone transact in that nation if they are an international? jonathan: things get harder and harder for the finance ministry in russia. there was a quote over the weekend that nisa -- that lisa gave a nod to. the debts we need to pay to the countries that have been unfriendly to the russian federation and have limited our use of foreign currency reserves, we will pay off our debt to these countries in the verbal equivalent. tom: i think esther sass our --

i think mr. sassower's translation for that would be a no. jonathan: that would be a default. on wednesday, two interest payments on two dollar bonds, i think close to $120 million. if it is missed, you've got a long time, weeks to work out what is going to happen here. lisa a: i think it is 30 days, but it triggers the series of events that could actually lead to a moment that calls for those losses to be realized, and then we will have a better sign -- a better sense of what the long-term financial ramifications are. jonathan: one more thing in the diary for the week ahead. futures up 0.3% on the s&p. yields higher by eight basis points, north of 2%. very close to 2.1% earlier on. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. and china will hold the first high-level in person talks

since russia's invasion of ukraine. national security advisor jake sullivan is meeting today in rome with china's top diplomat. the biden administration once beijing to use its influence on russia to end the war. the u.s. says russia has armed china -- has asked china for military assistance in ukraine. it suggests putin has faced more setbacks in the invasion that he imagined. the u.s. is not saying what kind of assistance they have requested. china has placed the people options and into lockdown. they have been told to stay home and undergo three rounds of tests. apple supplier foxconn is halting production edits shenzhen site -- at its shenzhen site, one of which makes iphones.

deals to revise the iran nuclear deal must address russia. iran says there will only be a short break. pro football star tom brady has changed his mind and is not retiring after all. brady will return for a 23rd season in the national football league. the temp a big order back says he realized his place is still on the field and not in the stands. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> an armed attack against one is an armed attack against all. we continue to reinforce capabilities along nato's eastern flank so that we can defend every inch of nato territory if we need to. jonathan: john kirby, the assistant secretary of defense for foreign affairs. an update from citi regarding operations in russia. the statement reads, "we are moving with urgency to complete our assessment of our operations in russia. in april 2021, we announced our

intent to exit our consumer business in the country. here's the addition. we have now decided to expand the scope of that exit process to include other lines of business and continue to reduce our remaining operations and exposure. due to the nature of banking and financial services operations, this decision will take time to execute." tom:tom: at the back end, they talk about their employees which has got to be a concern as well. there is a symbolism of citigroup that is not like the other banks. maybe jp morgan would be there, going back to the time of the revolution. this is a bank that has prided itself in european commercial interests, and there is a heritage here that can be missed. jonathan: jp morgan and goldman made a move last week, but it was always going to be about citi, which has a larger footprint in russia.

if they shift that consumer unit, where do they shift it to? who do they sell it to? the domestic banks right now are now sanctioned. i think it gets very difficult, and in their words come of this decision will take time to execute. lisa a: just imagine all of the multinational companies trying to exit that need to exit financially and do it gracefully, and they need a banking partner. talk about a complicated engagement. jonathan: the second paragraph reads, "we have also decided to stop soliciting any new business or clients providing assistance to multinational corporations, many of whom undergoing the complex process of under winding their obligations. we will continue to manage our existing regulatory commitments and obligations to depositors, as well as all of our employees in this very difficult time. unabated regarding -- this very difficult time." an update regarding citi.

tom: we are honored that in the current dust that -- that enda curran could join us. what does it do to the domestic economy, and what does it do to the confidence in leadership? lisa h: --enda: we are going to find out. shenzhen, next door to hong kong , a big industrial hub underway wide range of restrictions as well, which means there will be a hit to consumer spending and confidence, but we will have to see how the industrial sector does because industrial production might be slowed down, shipment to ports might be slowed down. so there are many ways it can play out economic a. to your point about leadership, it is all about the big congress

coming up in october, november, so they have made it clear they want to continue. i don't think anyone expects a pivot from them and their term. lisa: people were looking at moves on the periphery for signaling what ending zero covid policy could look like. in the meantime, since that is a faraway off, what kind of fiscal support, what kind of monetary easing are people expecting? enda: blessed weekly -- last week the mpc came out with a growth target that a lot of people think is ambitious. to your point, that means there's going to be more government support. there will be central bank support, may be an interest rate cut in the near-term, but i think most of the action is going to come on the borrowing and infrastructure and spending side of things. it is going to be a year of fiscal actions.

we will see tax cuts and tax breaks, so i think more on the fiscal side than the monetary side. lisa: are you surprised by how few supply chains were actually moved out of china during the pandemic, given the fact that these disruptions were commonplace for the last couple of years, and now they continue to be amid zero covid policy? enda: it is a fair question. china offers a that no one has. last year, a lot of production outside of china was stripped, so we had a situation where factories were relocated to other parts of asia, back into china. that is the benefit of zero covid. you can argue about zero covid, but the factories were able to running. now we will see a much tougher variant to keep under control.

after the russian invasion of ukraine, they were already saying that prices would go through the roof. now we are dealing with soaring commodity prices and potentially on the production side, a lot of things to keep an eye on. jonathan: the moving parts in this story have just been phenomenal. thank you. stay safe as always. citi in the premarket up by 1.33%. much ago we did get an update regarding citi's operations in russia. they had previous and out -- they had previously announced their intentions to end the consumer business. we have now decided to expand the scope of that exit process to include other lines of business and to continue to reduce our remaining operations and exposure. tom: let's go to the ratios. this is not apples and apples. this is apples and broccoli. it is the magnificent screen on the bloomberg. i can get a quick snapshot of

some form of book value. citigroup, 0.59, way too close to deutsche bank, 0.37, and jp morgan doing a little bit better , 1.46. jonathan: they are doing a lot of things more than once now. tom: is it cfa? no, but it gives you the challenge that jane fraser has citigroup. jonathan: now you got to execute the call, and the line in the first paragraph, this decision will take time to execute for everyone. as you pointed out, all trying to do this at the same time. lisa: amid financial sanctions, illegal quagmire for all of these countries as they try to figure out how to navigate in a legal manner and amid all of these companies making this exit is out of russia. to your point, how do they exit quickly? jonathan: how do you find a local dance partner if they are not sentient? there's not going to be -- not

sanctioned? there's not going to be many to sell to. maybe you just walk away which is what we have been thinking about what some of the oil majors. jonathan: futures up 0.25 percent. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: the rally in equities fading. up .25% on the s&p, on the nasdaq down .25%. yields at 2019 highs, two point 0709. you will like this note at credit suisse. recession concerns legitimate but overstated. a review of the bird economic landscape leads us to believe investor concerns around stagflation are not likely to materialize. tom: that is what is out there this morning. i do not have an opinion. jonathan: tell us what it is. tom: we need a diversity of

opinions and not the panic that seems to be evident. jonathan: we appreciate the balance your brain to this program. tom: can i get some more tang? jonathan: you can continue. tom: we have tried to be careful with authorities on this horrific war or invasion or operation. we've been honored with the guests we have had. now seth jones with the center for strategic and international studies and in america he is our definitive expert on guerrilla warfare. thank you so much for joining us. general kimmitt was chilling describing them guerrilla war to come. describe what we will see. seth: what we are likely to see is russian forces continuing to push into urban terrain in ukraine, in cities like kyiv in

particular. in the russians to be bent from fire from atop billion -- from atop buildings, fire from around buildings, as the entire ukrainian population rises up to attempt to pick apart russian forces in cities. those kinds of campaigns destroy cities. we are bound to see that destruction in ukrainian cities. tom: does russia have the material or the will to make kyiv look like aleppo? seth: the russians do have the ability to use artillery, to use aircraft and to drop dom and smart bombs in kyiv and to turn it into aleppo. what they do not have is the ability to hold the territory?

russians did not have to do it in aleppo. the russian forces will have to do it. i did not know if they will be able to stomach the bloodshed. they have already lost more soldiers into those weeks in ukraine than the u.s. lost in 20 years in afghanistan. lisa: we have from the u.s. authorities the threat of biological or chemical weapons being used on ukraine by russia according to statements over the weekend from this administration. what with the u.s. response be to something like that? seth: i will tell you what it should be. i do not why the u.s. is now holding back on providing aircraft to the ukrainians. the russians are willing to ramp up this war. if they used chemical weapons, we are in a very different ballgame. these are work rhymes. -- these are war crimes.

the president of russia should be treated as such if that is what he uses. lisa: you've said that is what this is. we have heard so many talks about talks and possible optimism. you hear any optimism from the developments on the ground that there could be an offramp to this conflict? seth: it is always important to talk about offramp's. i do not see the russians looking for an offramp that is acceptable to the ukrainian population or nato. that is my worry, we can talk about offramp's. an acceptable one we will have to see. tom: over the weekend there were horrific articles, thoughtful articles by experts outlining the failure of the political and military leadership in russia to put together the kind of legitimate force you served under. how weak is russia? we deceive ourselves? seth: what we have seen with the

russians as they have been entirely incapable of putting together an effective ground invasion in ukraine. they have not done much of that in the past. they have also entirely miss read both how the west was going to respond as well as the ukrainian population. these are huge strategic miscalculations by senior russian government officials and i've not seen them improve that much over the last three weeks. tom: how far away is a sniper? this is the core of your work. how far away is a sniper when a sniper is sniping? seth: you could be at very close range, you could be 100 feet, you could be much further than a football field, much further than 100 yards, you could be over 1000.

it depends on the type of weapon you have as well as how accurate and good you are. you have options, which is the point. jonathan: that is the urban warfare. i am looking to situation shifting farther west. over the weekend, as you saw, we saw strike on a military base 15 kilometers from poland and we saw language change from the russians when they declared convoys of military supplies from nato to ukraine are now legitimate targets. can we talk with your thinking about that quote, "legitimate targets" on the military supplies from nato to ukraine. seth: i'm not surprised the russians are starting to conduct these attacks. the reason is the russian ground forces are getting hammered with javelins and stingers. both the ground and air elements. this is an attempt because the supplies coming into ukraine

have been so successful at hitting russian forces, they are now trying to destroy. i'm not surprised at all. the concern is how close they are getting to the polish border and one stray missile that goes into poland and hits a second airborne force puts this work in a very different direction. jonathan: can you talk to me about that. for myself, how far is 15 kilometers in your world? seth: not very far at all. one cruise missile or a ballistic missile with a guidance package offkilter, that is not a very long distance for that stray missile to go in a different direction. it happened with u.s. ballistic border shells, hitting 82nd airborne shoulders -- 82nd airborne soldiers would kill the

u.s. and we would be in a different world. lisa: how high is the threshold for u.s. military and european troops to fight directly with the russians? are we getting closer and closer to it? seth: i think we are getting closer. the u.s. has to begin to think about what war would look like if that is the direction the russians take this. the u.s. does not want to get directly involved in the war, but if u.s. soldiers are killed by russian missiles coming off of aircraft or maritime vessels in the black sea, that will be a very difficult decision for the u.s. the american population will want to respond. lisa: that is what you said with a strong response to work rhymes with a chemical attack were the biological -- to war crimes with the biological attack. what would that look like if

there were direct conflict between u.s. and russian troops? seth: the question if -- the question is if russian and nato troops were engaged in combat could you contain it? it might start with aircraft striking various targets. large numbers of u.s. forces crossing the border would probably not be the first option. it would probably be air assets being used in the possibility of u.s. aircraft taken down. i think that is inching towards broader ground engagements. ground engagements would be a serious concern. jonathan: a clinic as always. seth jones of csis. headlines from boris johnson, meeting with oil and gas companies on energy and security. the u.k. saying a windfall tax

on north sea oil and gas would deter investment. tom: that is just basic microeconomics. that is all there is. what is interesting is the senator from massachusetts knows her microeconomics. it is politics and we will see where it goes. the bottom line is we had a panic up to 130, we are back to $109. i learned long ago predicting oil prices is a good way to light your wallet. jonathan: the u.k. to discuss energy supplies and other issues with saudi arabia. lisa: the idea for how to encourage oil production while furthering a green agenda is a paradox in that is what you are pointing to. certainly right now the national security aspect of securing oil at a price that will not bankrupt the average person is of ultimate importance. jonathan: and doing it with the country with questionable human rights abuses over the weekend

and a questionable human rights record over recent history. it is awkward. lisa: is so awkward and that is why there was a lot of skeptical hope around the iranian deal. that seems to be falling apart. what a tenuous time from a year ago. jonathan: futures up one third of 1%. the nasdaq down about .1%. yields higher nine basis points, approaching 2.1% on this market. seema shah joining us very shortly on bloomberg tv in around 20 minutes. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i am ritika gupta. russia and ukraine are holding

another round of talks at a time where there are cautious since of progress from both sides. the focuses on securing a more substantial cease-fire. so far there've only been three pauses in the fighting. russian prosecutors are threatening u.s. companies such as mcdonald's and ibm for criticizing the government or pulling out of the country. assets could be seized or corporate leaders could be arrested. the journal says a broad range of companies delivered warnings. the british government is that you offer a new system for admitting refugees after weeks of criticism. the new system includes payments for households accepting refugees. the cabinet member told the bbc he expects tens of thousands of ukrainians will be admitted. in germany the coronavirus hit a record for the third straight day in the country's top health official issued to graham warner -- issued a grim warning.

he urged vaccine holdouts to get their shots. billionaire investor carl icahn has taken another step in his campaign to take over southwest gas. he boosted the price he is offering to $82.50 a share. southwest rejected his previous offer. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the way we are looking at putin's we are looking at a

cornered animal that thinks when all of this is done, he can stroll into the u.n. and make a speech. i do not think he has -- i do not think he understands what a pariah he has turned his country into and one of the economic ripples associated with that. tom: phil orlando this morning. we want to get through two news items to get the helane becker. ian bremmer publishes seconds ago and he says where are we three months from now, no one knows? lisa: you are seeing that uncertainty gamed out. the hope is we can get a resolution, the fear is what happens if we do not, especially given ukraine and russia's importance as the oil and gas supplier of so much of europe. tom: i have done panels with the great ed morris of citigroup. he published a tome a few minutes ago.

very clear yield will go up because farmers look at price and say let's plant. lisa: can that yield, what is the elasticity? can they plant enough to offset the loss of the reserves we will see in russia? that is one of people are looking at and what ed morris's conclusion was is it will be a tighter market. tom: we bring you the research and finance investment of everything out there and we finished strong with helane becker, senior research analyst at cowan. simply owns the high ground on airline analysis. i saw a blur of the airlines are begging the government to get rid of the mask on airplanes. is that going to happen? helane: i was hoping it would happen friday, but the tsa decided to extend the mask mandate for one more month to

april 18 while they figure out what to do. personally i think it is enough. i think it is time we move on. i think we go past all of this, including testing. you can see countries that do not have any requirements, quarantine, testing mandates, are the ones that are doing well in terms of bookings for the summer months. those are the ones that should continue to garner the lion share of bookings. tom: what with gas, with fuel, with airline fuel. to the prices of the tickets go up? helane: they will have to. we have inflationary pressure before this. we are forecasting a 7% monthly increase from now through the end of august. lisa: monthly increase? helane: exactly. especially if oil stays where it

is. if oil comes down we would modify that. tom: so lisa flying to the late will cost $4000. lisa: how many flights get canceled by consumers who do not want to pay the bills? helane: exactly. we will see both of those things. skywest, a small regional airline, announced friday they are cutting service to 21 markets, many in the midwest, where there is an airport within a 2 hour drive. that is a combination of high energy prices and a lack of pilots. united said earlier this year they have 100 aircraft on the ground because they do not have enough pilots, and then you add the fuel issue on top of that he will see more planes and less service. tom: i look at the pilots like you look at nurses. all you do is raise the pay and come out of the woodwork. the issue is we are addicted to

low prices. we have to get used to a permanent shift airline prices? helane: i think we are going to have to. to your point, every major airline is a negotiation with their pirates for a new contract. pilot contracts and flight attendant contracts in the airline industry cannot ever expire, they just become amendable so everybody continues to work. it takes a lot divorce strike. you will not see that -- it takes a lot to force a strike. to tom's point, starting salaries for first-year first officers are $90 an hour and i think that will go to $100. lisa: i wonder if we will see more mergers to consolidate some of the economies? helane: my one-word answer is yes and my longer winded answer is let's see what happens to the spirit frontier merger.

we think it will take most of this year but it will get approved. if that does go through i think you'll see more smaller airlines merge. the regional airlines. that is where you need to see consolidation. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated. too short a visit. i just did the analysis on the old hp 12 c. i think a starting pilot and original makes amount the same amount as a bartender. they do not fly 40 hours a week. $90 an hour. because of the stress, i do not get the math. lisa: what is the math for an airline that has already cut as many costs as they possibly can, where something like one third or more of their costs come from oil, dave cut every corner to try to streamline all of the expenses and now they are hit with this additional burning -- additional burden.

how they navigate that the pilots? how did they get that to work without raising prices enough to primp demand? helane: new york to lax, $375 in economy, the cheapest thing out there. $400 to fly across the country? lisa: are you searching for flights on television? helane: it is called research. lisa: where else are you looking for research? you have a flight to capri? helane: international is a different -- tom: international is a different story. we will all have to adjust out of this inflation. lisa: i agree. your point, consumers have absorbed it really well. at one point today pushback? that is what everybody -- at what point do they pushback? tom: extraordinary effort by our team to make this a smart monday for you.

bloomberg will continue on radio and television. a very important video -- very important interview, the senator from pennsylvania, pat toomey. look for that at the 12:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> welcome to another special bnp paribas open update from bloomberg tv and radio for tennis channel. madison keys one the all-american matchup. after clinching an opening set breaker the former u.s. open finalist wins six to in the second to set up a meeting with great britain. on the men's side, took care of business against compatriot. the number 23 seat edging his good friend and does go

tiebreaker's. 23 aces. up next, argentina. don't forget, tennis channels extensive daily live coverage all starts at 1:00 p.m. eastern.

jonathan: live from new york city, kicking off the week in positive territory. good morning to you all. up 5% on the s&p.

"the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city we begin with the big issue. president zelensky tweeting our demands are the end of the war at the withdraw of the russian troops. there is a dialogue. renewed hope for a diplomatic breakthrough contrasts with actions on the ground. russia striking a military base 15 kilometers from poland's border and several reports suggesting russia asks china for help. bloomberg reporting russia