tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg March 14, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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♪♪ ♪♪ >> a very good morning. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> welcome to "daybreak asia." our top stories this hour, the u.s. presses china to use its influence in moscow to help end the war in ukraine and warning there will be consequences for supporting russia. stocks and bonds face another challenging session in asia, traders assess the situation in
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eastern europe and the risk of aggressive belt tightening. the china equity selloff extends as geopolitical fears by the risk of u.s. listings. haidi: a difficult handover from that session, particularly when it comes to the continued fall feeding into the asian session. stocks and bonds both pressured by concerns over inflation, concerns over the market from the fed this year. you see the sidney stock situation online off by half a percent there. the bond market has really seen the big price moves, the yield moves for the 10-year, in fact that 10-year rising to top that pandemic high which was that meltdown back in march 2020. the intraday high that was reached. we have seen a big move with the
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three-year yield as well as bonds trading in new zealand as well. kiwi stocks are keeping their head above water, and futures are up by a quarter of 1%. we see this move in the bond market extending that route as we saw german bond deals surging, on u.s. 10-year treasuries and u.k. in that action as well. shery: after the 10-year yield here in the new york session rose to that highest level since 2019. we are seeing a little bit of a rebound when it comes to u.s. futures at the moment after the s&p 500 fell suggesting more declines to come. we continue to see the pressure on w.t.i. prices extending those losses after oil dropped in the new york session, negotiations between ukraine and russia perhaps appearing to grow a little bit more substantive and of course the demand outlook not looking great after china
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imposed that lockdown across the country. china and the u.s. had a substantial discussion in a high level face-to-face meeting over the war in ukraine while beijing also blasted reports of russia's request for military aid as disinformation. for the latest, let's bring in our chief correspondent in hong kong, steve, what stood out for you from those talks in rome? steve: well, these talks obviously are critical, of course, because we have been getting various lines from beijing over the last couple of weeks since the war in ukraine began. they have stopped short of condemning that invasion, obviously they have not even called it a war. it's a conflict and they have taken kind of a both sides approach, but obviously senior white house officials have acknowledged that they are concerned by beijing's close ties with moscow and what it would mean and all of those other reports that surfaced
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yesterday about possible military aid being requested by moscow of beijing. now these talks lasted about six hours in rome between national security advisors of the united states jake sullivan and top diplomat from china and both sides are essentially saying they had substantial discussions over those six hours that of course focused on the war in ukraine but also touched on taiwan and other issues. both sides underscored the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between beijing and washington. now, he essentially said china is committed to promoting ukraine peace talks and that beijing opposes dissemination of any inaccurate information that distorts or smears the chinese position. he called on all parties in ukraine to exercise restraint to protect citizens. now, on that issue of that report from u.s. officials unnamed u.s. officials that russia is soliciting beijing's
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military support in some form. we don't know if that's hardware or military aid of some other form. the ministry of foreign affairs spokesperson in beijing said those reports were disinformation and malicious. this is what he had to say. >> recently the u.s. has repeatedly spread false information on the ukraine issue targeting china with dangerous intentions. china's stand has been consistent and clear, we have been playing a constructive role in making peace through dialogue. the current priority is to exercise restraints from all sides to calm the tension rather than adding fuel to the fire. to work out a diplomatic solution rather than further escalating the situation. steve: a kremlin spokesman did say russia has all of the necessary resources to complete the mission as planned. so a good start to talks i would
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say perhaps between china and the united states in rome face-to-face, the first time high level talks since the war began, but there is more room to go obviously. shery: stephen engle with the latest, the selloff of the chinese stocks, having begin up all of its gains since the debut in 2013. let's go to our editor. this ferocious selloff that continues, we don't seem to see a bottom yet. is this still on the same old drivers? >> hi haidi, one thing we need to remember is that chinese equities went into this global market selloff already in a weakened position. we have that lack of clarity on the regulatory track down out of beijing. we've got the prospect of the
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listing of american depository receipts and the newest covid outbreak which is likely to weigh on chinese growth as more cities are being locked down. we have j.p. morgan downgrading 28 stocks traded in the u.s. and hong kong saying they're uninvestable on a six to 1-month basis. of course, we have the general weak backdrop for equity markets. so all of these factors are coming together to weigh on the chinese equities, especially the tech stocks. yeah, they are going in quite a weakened position. haidi: could all of those considerations offer some relief? >> yeah, look, we are seeing at
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the margins some investors, i guess dipping their toes in the water and on the fringes of that, some of them taking opportunity to come in as you said evaluations in a decade low and markets down 75% from their peaks, we need to see more than that. we need to see some positive news on the war. obviously there are still questions about china's position on the ukraine war. investors want to see a better vaccine to tackle this renewed outbreak as well as buyback in some private deals that could underpin, could underpin some of these companies. and also, look, there are expectations of some easing of monitor tray policy in china as it tries to revive growth so that also could help. i think it's still early days.
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haidi: take a look at how currencies are trading at the moment because we are now seeing the bloomberg dollar index rallying to the highest since july of 2020, not a lot of movement, but, of course, after we saw that up trend already in the new york session, this, of course, as we continue to see trades for yields rallying, a little bit of haven demand with geopolitical tensions over the war in ukraine continuing. the aussie dollar also rebounding from two sessions of losses that we had seen as oil and iron ore led the commodity prices lower. take a look at the euro holding steady and under a little bit of pressure, we have seen the euro also gain ground against the u.s. dollar in the new york session, but we're watching that japanese yen, take a look at that, after weakening the whole of the last week and dropping to that five-year low as we head, of course, towards a fed rate decision, we're expecting at least a 25 basis point hike
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while the b.o.j. is expected to keep easing. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: thank you. cranan president is expected to ask for more aid. lawmakers are agitating to do more to help ukraine and punish russia. however, he won't get all of his requests including the no fly zone over his country. the european union is said to impose more sanctions on russia. according to a draft of the sanctions attempted by bloomberg, a ban will be placed on some russian steel and iron products. it will ban sales of luxury goods and cars to the country. the package is sent for final approval by e.u. nations later tuesday. russia has started the payment process of two bond coupons due to this week in one of the most
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closely watched debt settlements in the war. paying $117 million, whether that will be in dollars, the issue currency or in rubles. if settled in rubles, it may put the nation toward default. joe manchin will oppose the nomination. he represents coal rich west virginia and supports an expansion of oil and gas drilling. he joined over the stance of climate change. pat tomby says that likely spells defeat for confirmation. >> it probably does as a practical matter. i'm not aware of any republican support for ms. raskin, i have not spoken with every last republican colleague, i'm not speaking for anybody. i'm just not aware of it. vonnie: global news 24 hours a day on air and on "bloomberg quicktake" powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries.
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i'm vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. haidi. haidi: surging nickel prices threatening to put a dent, we'll be discussing that with goldman sachs. and revising guidance most of the year-end targets with geopolitical risks and a possible recession later in 2022. paul christopher is with us next. this is bloomberg.
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haidi: turns out to be a challenging equity session, a challenging session already when it comes to asian bonds trading at the moment as well. take a look at the session in sydney extending the losses down to .7 of a percent there, this as really the combination of the russian war in ukraine, the risk of more u.s. monetary tightening and the inflationary environment being potentially exacerbated by lockdowns in china. we are seeing modest gains out of new zealand. s&p futures up by .3 of 11%,
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this after the nasdaq 100 fell and closed in bear market territory and we saw that big plunge, the renewed selloff when it comes to u.s. listed chinese stocks as well, the a.d.r.s, main e.t.f. tracking a.d.r.'s giving up all of its gain. the golden dragon china index seeing so much further downside, 12% to its lowest level since july of 2013, that builds on the route that we saw last week as well. no matter how you look at it, baba, j.d., et cetera tumbling as much as 21%. one of the biggest targets of selling as well, we had the report that russia asked china for military assistance. this all building on these concerns about the ongoing regulatory crackdown and the threat of u.s. d listing as well. let's bring in our next guest who recently degraded emerging market equities from mutual to
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unfavorable. paul christopher at wells fargo investment institute. great to have you with us. let me throw out the chart for people wondering if the selloff is nearing a bottom for china, bearish bets in hong kong is pretty elevated as you can see. at what point do we see this momentum in selling stopping and is what's going on with china at least partly informing your view on broader e.m.? paul: it is, to answer the first part of your question. we're in an environment where you may see a low, but you're not sure if it's the low. we need to see some of the uncertainty clear, take your pick from the list you mentioned and a lot of them associated with the war in ukraine. we need to see some more signs of clearing the uncertainty and we really want shorter term, shorter focused investors to be
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a little bit patient and holding a little bit extra cash is maybe not a bad idea. shery: in terms of where you are still invested, what segments of the market do you find a bit of protection? paul: we like the u.s. over international whether emerging or developed now for a couple of years, it's a call that paid off for us. we still like the u.s. and within the u.s. we like information technology communication services and financials, we really think you want to focus on quality, here is the reason for the i.t. and the services pick, these are companies that even though they have been handled pretty roughly in markets pretty recently, we think they're still good prospects for them in the medium and longer term. that's where you want your longer term investors averaging in here a little bit and not paying too much attention to the volatility. shery: j.p. morgan was seeing a 10% for stocks, can we expect such a technical boost in the short term?
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paul: possibly. it's difficult to expect that normal sort of technical bounds to out weigh the many other uncertainty, the fed, the war, the commodity prices, you name it. that's a pretty tall list, pretty tall order to overcome. shery: when it comes to emerging markets, i understand your logic that given what is happening with china, you're bear injury and you're not very optimistic about the prospects there. many of these emerging markets are also exporters of commodities, right, whether it's malaysia net oil exporter or colombia or brazil, are you also not so positive about those markets? paul: it's difficult, you kind of have to pick and choose and the ways that are available to invest are largely regional and so it becomes difficult to pick out the winners. remember, those countries that are exporters of industrial products are oftentimes importers of food products and likewise brazil is going to be a big exporter of food products
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but might have to import a lot of metals. it's really difficult for emerging markets here to get the story completely right for investors. haidi: when it comes to china, there were concerns about beijing looking to cozy with russia and perhaps the implications of that, whether it's a global backlash or even sanctions affecting the markets, do you go that far when assessing the chinese financial space or do you just stick with those valuations and the technicals and perhaps the ongoing regulatory crackdown as well. paul: it's the latter than the former. from beijing, we see the attempt to straddle the fence between russia and the west. china has sympathy on both sides of that fence and doesn't want to get too far on one side or the other. really it's the fundamentals, the growth is slow, the new outbreak of covid is likely to force lockdowns which are just going to aggravate the problems
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and many real estate companies are still having. that's a problem that slipped below the surface in a lot of investors minds right now. we need to keep that in the forefront that real estate is going to suffer here as more restrictions go in place and of course the regulatory regime as you mentioned and the increases cost of raw materials. so all of these things are head winds for china. we think growth will be solid this year, but we don't think the selloff is quite done yet. haidi: paul christopher, head of global market strategy of wells fargo investment institute there with some of his views and of course really informing some of these concerns of the outlook for china, are these lockdowns that we continue to see. we are now hearing reports in addition to the lockdown, that another city is locked down, it's near beijing. it has been emerging as a cloud i.t. and technology hub for china and we are now hearing
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that this is a city about 50k away from beijing, that is being locked down as a result of covid as well. of course, this comes as we see the lockdown of almost 18 million people effecting the output of a number of huge tech names, the likes of apple and intel as we see these multiple days of lockdown to try to put a cap as what we see the omicron outbreak in china as beijing sticks to the covid zero strategy. shery had mentioned earlier, we have been hearing renewed downsized revisions when it comes to the economy impact, zero gdp growth for china. langfang city immediately being locked down to curb the spread of the outbreak according to a statement from the local government. lots more to come here on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg.
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haidi: we're tracking the fallout of the global supply chain front. these are the top stories today. shares of apple and its suppliers fell on monday after operations were halted following a government imposed lockdown. the company is the primary assembler for iphones but says it expects no major impact to finances from the temporary shutdown this follows the lockdown of the northeast, not to mention china looking down a city near beijing as well. a year after the giant containership was stuck in the canal, another has run aground this near the u.s. capitol, it got stranded after departing with the port of baltimore. movement for other ships is not affected and efforts are
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underway to free the vessel. a number of container ships at one of china's biggest ports continue to rise, the ship has risen to 72 vessels, the highest in at least 11 months. haidi: the increased delay by these lockdowns expected to put up rates, there is a growing backlog of vessels which are among the top five busiest ports in the world. bloomberg terminal users can read more about these stories about the supply lines on trade. let's get you a quick check of the business headlines, 1.5 billion hit to earnings from a broader russia exit. analysts at wells fargo say citigroup will have to write down a portion of its investment in a russian subsidiary and set aside additional funds for losses.
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the lender is expanding its scope of withdrawal. wells fargo has raised the c.e.o.'s pay 20% for 2021 as a year which it recovered and shares advanced more than most of the bank's rivals. the board paid him $25.5 million, up from 20.3 million for 2020. the package consisted of salary, cash bonus, performance shares, rewards and restricted share rights. the chinese tycoon whose position roiled the nickel market, the company says the banks led by j.p. morgan agreed not to close out positions against it during a standstill period. it will continue on a credit facility to cover the firm's nickel margin and settlement requirements. coming up next, morgan stanley sees zero growth in china and the country will miss its gdp
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>> this is "daybreak: asia." i'm vonnie quin with the first word headlines. the u.s. and china holding substantial discussions on the war in ukraine. the first high-level in person talks since the invasion began. in the six-hour meeting, the u.s. national security advisor and china's top diplomat discussed topics including ukraine, taiwan, and north korea. no specific outcomes or agreements were announced by the white house. the european union is set to oppose more sanctions on russia.
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a ban will be placed on russian steel and iron products, and new investments in russian energy products. it will ban sales of luxury goods and cars to the country. a final approval will be later tuesday. the alleged mastermind of the one mdb scandal stole $1.2 million from bond transactions at goldman sachs arrange for the malaysian wealth fund. he testified at the trial of the x goldman banker. vendor and also said the former malaysian prime minister received $756 million from the transaction. the metals exchange will reopen the nickel market on wednesday, more than a week after trading was suspended and nearly $4 billion of transactions were canceled. this after a chinese tycoon announced a standstill with his banks to avoid for your margin
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-- further margin calls. it roiled the market last week. trading to resume 8:00 a.m. london time. india is keeping all options open to see how much can be imported from russia or new supplies turning to the market. the government pledging to provide relief to consumers as prices of gasoline and diesel start rising. they discussed energy cooperation with russia days ago. russia said prospects for crude oil and he exports to india -- and exports to india. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quin. this is bloomberg. shery: the chance of becoming the next fed vice chair of supervision looks dimmer than ever after a key democratic senator is not backing her nomination. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays joins us with more.
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why is senator joe manchin opposing this? kathleen: he's joining what has been a block of opposition among republicans in the senate. on the senate banking saying they oppose her. joe manchin a powerful senate democrat from west virginia with a 50-50 division in the senate. you have to have all democrats on board to get her through and allow biden to appoint her as the next vice chair. if you lose even one, it means you probably don't get her confirmed, because republicans are completely opposed to her. susan collins, moderate republican from maine. another republican democrats look to when they are hoping to break a tie, and they hope for one person on their side. they hope she joins them. on this issue, she made it clear she thinks there are too many gaps in her experience. her experience beside having been on the board of governors, deputy secretary of the treasury
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appointed by barack obama, she's been an advocate of the federal reserve, looking at the impacts of climate change on banks risks on their balance sheets. joe manchin opposes her. he's concerned about what she might decide about the financing for oil and gas companies, west virginia very important. representative pat toomey, a ranking member on the senate banking committee who will control whether or not the vote gets to the floor any time soon. when the news about the opposition broke, he was asked if it basically has an impact on her chances. here's what he said. >> it probably does as a practical matter. i'm not aware of any republican support for ms. raskin. i haven't spoken with every last republican colleague, but i'm not aware of it. >> at this point, one of the reasons it is important is not just sarah bloom raskin making
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the white house fully behind her apart from the issue of climate change and banks, and whether or not she would be helping the fed step outside its mandate of employment. there's a question of getting a vote on jay powell for fed chair, the fed vice chair, lisa cook, and jefferson to join the board of governors. sherrod brown, the head of the senate banking committee, all voted on it at once. more republicans saying let's vote on the floor. but it is looking quite not as bright for her now. shery: seven fed rate hikes -- haidi: seven rate hikes this year, is this what we are going to hear from that fomc? kathleen: you always wonder the policy statement and what it will say. a 50-50 basis point rate hike, totally priced out.
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everyone in the 25 basis point rate hike. what does jay powell say at the press conference? all of it will matter. but the dots are very important. every three months the fed with the employment, gdp, and inflation, then they set their forecast for rate hikes. what do they think will be needed to achieve these forecasts? in december, the last time they updated dots, there was a big move, barely half of the fomc seeing two rate hikes this year. seeing three or even four. that is a very powerful message for the mark. they are betting on this more aggressive fed, economists surveyed by bloomberg seeing aggressiveness. too much uncertainty about the war in ukraine. they don't want to overdo the fed and tilt the economy into recession. when it comes to searching commodity prices and a yield curve that has been close to
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inverting. that is one more thing that will be important. and whatever jay powell says at the press conference about the balance sheet, you stop buying bonds when you are going to reduce it. very important to bond investors. haidi: kathleen hays, thank you. let's get more on china. economists have pushed up expectations for cuts as china struggles with the worsening covert outbreak. morgan stanley lowered its growth forecast from china to zero this quarter. let's get analysis and a look ahead to the eco-data drop today with our chief asia economics correspondent. it is a very different picture looking at china versus the u.s.. we just heard another city has been placed under lockdown as a result of covid cases. >> there is a lot going on at the moment. on the covid story, people are
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saying the new lockdowns are showing the government is placing pressure of the virus ahead of growth. there's no hint of a change of the game plan. people are now recalibrating what that will mean for consumer and industrial sectors in the month ahead. a lot of focus on how shenzhen played out. it is to be a short-term lockdown, there has not been anything yet. and that is why we are getting this growth. morgan stanley, like you mentioned, lowering growth forecasts. 5.1 the full year. spiking the government to miss their full-year growth target -- expecting the government to miss their full-year growth target. we will have full numbers today, january and february. it will be skewed by the holiday. keep an eye on the retail sales figure. it will surely give us a bit of a temperature.
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shery: this chart showing us how industrial production has remained resilient, but not so much when it comes to retail sales numbers. how are we setting up in order to achieve the growth target of 5.5%? >> primarily, from the single friday that it will be difficult. to acknowledge it will be tough. most people say it will have to depend on support from the government. there will be monetary support. economists are saying there is a chance the one-year lending rate might be today. it will keep credit margins low. but the action will be on borrowing and spending. especially infrastructure projects. parallel to that, we will have to see how covid plays out. it will be critical to consumer confidence. zero covid operating has been great for industrial production, it has driven the whole export boom. if we do see sizable disruption
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to manufacturing, it will have a hit to growth. they are already worried about rising prices. getting data today, the focus is already on how covid will hit the economy. what kind of support is coming. there's a lot of moving pieces for china's economy. shery: our chief asia correspondent. more analysis on all of the china data. an economist joins us. bank of america's global research chief breaking down the pboc strategy to support the chinese economy. haidi: coming up next, surging nickel prices threatened to put a dent in the auto industry's ev ambitions. we discussed it with goldman sachs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: take a look at some commodities prices. wti extending losses after oil dropped in the new york session. the associations between ukraine and russia appearing to be more substantive. the demand outlook and concerns about china's lockdowns. we are headed toward the eia crude oil inventory report later this week. we have seen pressure for copper and iron ore prices, as well as china's covid-19 battle continues.
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we are also watching gold, close to the $2000 level. but still under pressure this week as bond yields climb with the global bond routes, as well. we are continuing to watch nickel and aluminum trading, as well. surging nickel prices threatening to dent the oil industry ev ambitions with metals caught up in war-induced supply worries and the short squeeze sending prices to record highs. our next guest is negative on ev margins, noting not only nickel, but all battery metal prices can be elevated. goldman sachs head of auto research joins us. speaking earlier this week to robert friedman, he told me how worried he was about the electric acacia. that the whole transition to ev's is a fraud, because there are not metals being mined.
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what is it doing to automakers? >> thank you so much. clearly, it is having negative impacts for auto and electric vehicle industry. the price has taken about 10% of the cost. so you can easily imagine the negative impact of the vehicle maker being significant. and we have to talk about cobalt, lithium. so we are expecting some 22 in a challenging year for the industry. and we are expecting 100 basis point to 100 basis point negative impact on the ev margins. haidi: when will all of that be filtered into their prices? we continue seeing the search in
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metals pricing, but how long will the transition take until we see the outlooks taking a hit? >> there is a certain long-term and short-term contract with each commodity. we think it will be materialized as a negative impact within one quarter to two quarters. the middle of this year, we will probably see a certain negative impact from the commodity price inflation for the industry. what we can do as an automaker is excel the technology growth innovation. something you can actually cope with this situation. >> how does the industry go about reducing battery costs? >> there are a couple of ways, but it takes time. probably two or three years to see a real impact of the battery technology innovation. what we think about is lower
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density, but lower cost battery solutions in china. also probably a very important technology. this green inflation, certainly a negative factor for the industry. i do think it will be a great opportunity for automaker and the battery industry to further develop, innovate the technology. haidi: when you take a look at companies who have the vertical integration, there is a better place than others? >> clearly, vertical integration is important for the industry in my view. clearly in a great position to capture the opportunity. it is about 30% of total costs,
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and we really have to understand the battery technology, and if you even innovate the battery technology as an automaker to achieve a profitable vehicle sustainable goal. a vertical integration very important for automakers. shery: do you factor in the war in ukraine when it comes to metals shortages, when it comes to militaries having to rearm, and supplies going to those weapons and ongoing tensions over there? >> we cannot take any risk about what is going on. and the countries, clearly those kind of impacts, it is something we have to closely monitor. we are predicting increases in battery costs this year versus last year. we are only modern during --
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monitoring -- shery: sorry about that. continue. >> we only factor in what is happening prior to this event. clearly, if there is any negative factor for the vehicle supply chain or battery supply chain, we might have to think about the best case scenario. best case scenario, but this time, we've introduced that scenario. it is showing that we have to think about the certain downside risk of the vehicle industry. significant acceleration of ev trends, this is the first time since we have seen it. haidi: goldman sachs head of asia autos research joining us
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from tokyo. the rise in natural gas prices, products like ammonia, now opening the door for green hydrogen and ammonia produced from renewables. it can be a catalyst toward broader adoption of the technology. let's bring in martin for more. how do we see the invasion of ukraine impacting prices when it comes to hydrogen and these derivative products? >> the war in ukraine has provided an incredible opportunity for green hydrogen made from renewable electricity. most today is made by natural gas and natural gas prices. extremely high today in asia. the russian invasion of ukraine, but the european month has gas prices. it is more than 10 times higher
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than just a year ago. it is also five times higher than a year ago. because most hydrogen today is made from natural gas, the high gas prices have translated to higher hydrogen prices, and high prices of ammonia. one of the most important products made from hydrogen. ammonia, spot prices in europe and north america, $1000 per metric ton. now this has created an incredible opportunity for making green hydrogen from water using renewable electricity instead of natural gas. using this hydrogen to make ammonia. in most places in europe and asia, we estimate the cost of making ammonia from green hydrogen is lower than the short round cost of making ammonia from natural gas. in the short-term, what matters is how natural gas --
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which depends on the war in ukraine. shery: what are the risk factors when it comes to keeping hydrogen developers from jumping on this opportunity? >> let me talk a little bit about europe. europe right now in about 12% of natural gas demand or hydrogen production. 25, 30% of gas consumption comes from russia. europe can now wean itself off from the russian gas. but of course, the high price of ammonia, the natural gas price i talked about can be temporary. developers will want to see a long-term certainty. that can make them reluctant for jumping the opportunity. some of those targets and
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subsidies could add some certainty, as well. but beyond economics, i would say they could really drive green hydrogen, great processes. we have seen green hydrogen and ammonia competing with production from natural gas. we are in a really different world, something we could not imagine two years ago. shery: martin tengler. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: chinese abr is quite the session in new york, following to the lowest level since july. we have concerns about the regulatory crackdown, growing risks of u.s. delisting, not to mention the close relationship with russia leading to more concern. tencent also plunging after reports it faces a record fine in china. given the selloff, the wealth dropped more than $3 billion. that is according to the billionaires index. in all, $52 billion in just one day lost for china's wealthiest. haidi: i think jack ma would
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know something about that, even the elongated pressure, extended pressure we continue to see on alibaba. it is one way of looking at how it has crossed the richest tycoons. but the king of bottled water in china, his fortune fell by $5 billion. we saw so many across the selloff that we are seeing. jack ma, who had been the wealthiest man before plenty had passed him, coming in at number four. now all of the regulatory issues that have faced him, and no doubt probably other tycoons and business leaders to come as the crackdowns and regulatory oversight continues. let's take a look at the stocks we are watching in tokyo and seoul. a few minutes out from the start of trading.
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shery: welcome to "daybreak: asia." i'm shery ahn. haidi: 'm haidi stroud-watts -- i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. our top stories this hour. asian stocks and bonds facing another tough trading session. weighing the risk of aggressive d tightening and the war in ukraine. haidi: u.s. threatens beijing to use influence in moscow to end
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the invasion or there will be consequences for supporting russia. china steps up efforts to rein in its biggest covert outbreaks since the start of the pandemic, locking down another city. shery: japan and south korea coming online. under pressure with the nikkei being led lower by tech and energy companies not surprising, given wti continues extending declines. despite the fact we hear from local media that the country is planning to end the covid emergency in tokyo and 16 other prefectures. the japanese yen continues to be above the 118 level against the u.s. dollar. it would be a five-year low. seventh consecutive session of declines against the u.s. dollar as jgb yields continue to rise. the 10 year yield surpassing the .2% level. very little scope and speculation of the boj's bond purchases intervention can cap yields.
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look at costs, .6%. the third consecutive session. the korean won stays at the 141 level. this after falling to the lowest since may of 2020. that is a two-year low ahead of this week's fed policy decision. we are watching for any other moves when it comes to central bank tightening around the world. haidi: let's take a look at the state of affairs when it comes to trading in australia. watching the asx. asian banks moving higher. yields are rising on inflation. financials are the biggest and one of the few gaining segments when it comes to the asx, trending lower by .7%. we have seen some of them rising with australia and new zealand yields surging. 10 years at the highest since
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2019. the australian 10 year topping the march 2020 pandemic high. the three year yield also rising. when it comes to the aussie dollar, it can have a decline before the high yields kick in and provide support. but traders really do need to be convinced the bond selloff has eased. it could take a while given what we are seeing. europe stocks have been intrepid in trading. the s&p futures above a quarter of 1%. the trading action over dominated by big tech. and chinese take adrs in particular. nasdaq 100 closing in bear market territory. just continuing to be exasperated. a little bit of a lift. when it comes to crude, watching some of the energy producers given the big swings. about $35 when it comes to prices in crude at the moment. gold holding steady under $2000
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an ounce. shery: we are watching the china open. many investors steering clear of chinese stocks after equities listed in hong kong had the first -- worst since 2008. the goldman dragon index capping -- tracking mainland shares. 75% from the peak. despite this, our next guest has upgraded chinese stocks to most preferred. with us is the head of equities and credit at ubs wealth management. good to have you with us. we see the bearishness when it comes to chinese -- hong kong stocks. this chart showing how bearish investors are with the put call ratio elevated. why do you like chinese equities? >> it is certainly true that chinese markets don't have many friends. if we go about a month back or
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so, especially offshore, china was probably the best performing large market. it is not so long ago. it shows these sentiments can swing very quickly. why haven't we upgraded it? particularly because it is the only really large economy on the planet that is actually losing when everyone else is either standing still or tightening. we see signs in the property market, property pricing. we see some stabilization. we expect more loosenings. if you tie it in with the massive underperformance we had seen over the last 18 months or so, still think there is reason to believe it is attractive other than something to be scared about. shery: loosening and monetary easing, will it offset the fact we will see more covid lockdowns? >> that certainly complicates the equation a little bit. in our estimates, not for the
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whole gdp target that has been put out, we are slightly below that. but we should come ultimately to the vicinity. if growth slows too much, there is room for the pboc to loosen. for the government on the fiscal side to do a little bit more. there is a buffer for these measures. haidi: what are the biggest delays? is there a pretty big risk that we see the macro turnaround taking longer than expected? >> i wouldn't say it is a large risk. it can be delayed by a couple of months. that is possible because of the current covert outbreak. we had covid pretty much in many other places, including two years ago in china. so we know how the market looks at it. it is very cautious, sometimes scared.
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even at the beginning. often times, even before they are peaking, the market is finding its footing again. i would not be too negative because we have these episodes we have seen in many other economies before, and a lasting session in the markets. haidi: global bonds are extending the route when it comes to credit in the u.s.. the worst quarter since 2008. a lot of fear about the surge in inflation, even stagflation. where do we find an opportunity, even in the bond space? >> on the bond space, we favor the ones who are floating rates. i think it is pretty much a done deal, we can argue how many times the fed will hike this or next year. and also, in our view, early enough in this cycle, they say two years or so, just over two years in the cycle, you can take credit risk, especially in the u.s.
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especially with some of it being energy that is short up right now. so some of the private credits, as long as they have floating rates. >> across emerging asia, do you see any opportunities or other risks facing ems given what we see going on in china and with the elevated monetary policy risk from the fed? >> china actually -- it is pretty clear it should not be too rate dependent. looking at the performance of the chinese market over the last 18 months, it doesn't suggest you are extremely rate sensitive at these levels. a lot of the previous growth stocks have become value stocks by now. that is something i don't think should have too much of an influence. also the regional strategy that
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we mentioned at the beginning, we are still pulling through with the overweight on china. haidi: how much further do we see the rally when it comes to financials? particularly in australia, banks are one of the few leaders in an overall down day. is there a sustained boost given we see rising yields? >> it is a valid question. in our strategies of the financials, not only banks, but insurers and life insurers, we have those included. in europe not too long ago. even before the war started, we took it down because the rally was very strong. it is still an interesting place to look at it. when they have a good rally, you
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can tip the positions a bit. haidi: always great to have you with us. the head of a equities and credit. let's take a look at oil stocks, given the drop in crude prices. quite a bit of volatility in the price swings. trading in the tokyo session. this is what we have seen for impacts. japan patrolling seeing a downsize of 5%. seeing modest losses. the oil corporation failing -- faring a little bit worse. down 1.7% after some pretty deep price swings. let's get to vonnie quin with the first word headlines. >> the european union set to a more sanctions on russia. sanctions obtained by bloomberg, it will be on some russian iron products, including investments in russian energy projects. it will ban sales of luxury
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goods and cars to the country. it is set for final approval by eu nations later tuesday. the payment process as bond coupons are due this week in what has become the closely watched debt settlement since the start of the war. the finance ministry issued an order to take your bondholders $107 million without specifying whether it would be in dollars, the issued currency, or rubles. it may put the nation on course for default. india is keeping open to see how much oil it can import from russia or new suppliers returning to the market. the government is pledging to provide relief to consumers as prices of gasoline and diesel start rising. they discussed energy cooperation with russia a day ago. russia says prospects for raising crude oil and exports to india. the ukrainian president will make a rare wartime address to
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both chambers of congress in the u.s. in a virtual seed planned for wednesday. he's expected to ask for more aid. lawmakers are both sides are asking to do more and punish moscow. but he will not get all of his request, even the no-fly zones over his country. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quin, this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, china's market march activity figures expected to reflect the slow start to the year. we get outlook and discuss the impact of the latest lockdowns with one of the top end china forecasters. the u.s. warns china over supporting russia and for beijing to use its influence in moscow to win the war. the latest on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: you are watching "daybreak: asia." u.s. futures up .10% after the s&p 500 fell into a death crawl, suggesting more declines. euro stocks 50 futures also losing ground. this after european stocks rose. investors looking to negotiations between russia and ukraine. we had seen the stoxx 600 at the highest in more than a week. continuing to watch russia etf, they will stop trading next week. in the meantime, we had seen the
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fall to the lowest since 2016. now extending the declines. haidi: the white house says china and the u.s. had a substantial discussion in high-level face-to-face meetings over the war in ukraine. beijing blasted reports of russia's request for military aid as "disinformation." for the latest, let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong. we talked about the request. it would have been a significant development. what did we hear from the talks, and would we have said it is a positive outcome? >> it is hard to say whether it was a positive outcome, other than the fact they agreed to keep open mind of communication. the national security advisor met on behalf of the white house and meeting with the top diplomat from beijing. a senior member of the politburo. the fact they talked for more
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than six hours is a good sign. not a complete readout of the nitty-gritty, but much of the six hours were about ukraine. they also touched on taiwan and north korea. the bulk of it was about ukraine. it came almost simultaneously with the report from anonymous u.s. officials saying in early days of the war, russia reportedly requested military aid of some sort from beijing. now beijing has denied it and called it disinformation and malicious rumors. this is what the ministry of foreign affairs spokesperson had to say about that. >> recently, the u.s. has repeatedly spread false information on the ukraine issue targeting china with dangerous intentions. china stands on the ukraine has been consistent and clear. we have played a constructive role in making peace through dialogue. the current priority is to exercise restraint from all sides to calm the tension rather
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than adding fuel to the fire to work out a diplomat solution rather than further escalating the situation. >> obviously, the white house wants to get beijing to use its influence on moscow to either ultimately end the war, have a cease-fire at the very minimum to help enforce the sanctions from the u.s. and eu and other nations around the world. but just on friday, we heard at the closing of the national people's congress that sanctions essentially will only hurt the world economy. we don't know what china pledged in the meetings overnight, but i'm sure the u.s. pressed beijing to exert its influence on moscow. shery: the idea is the biden administration is not calling out china directly when it comes to its stance on russia read what u.s. officials believe china has -- russia.
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what are we expecting in terms of any suggestions of where beijing eventually lies on this topic? >> u.s. officials have confirmed anonymously to us that the white house is quite concerned about the close ties between moscow and beijing. while it is an opportunity to you elicit beijing's support and help, at the same time it can go the other direction. china likes to take a neutral stance on these things. china has yet to condemn and has given no indication they will condemn russia's war in ukraine. so the longer this goes, and if the rumors continue protesting -- persisting about possible military assistance, it takes the veneer off of the perception of neutrality by beijing and puts them in a very awkward situation. jake sullivan on the sunday talk shows, it is very interesting
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what he said. the u.s. believes china did know of the invasion plans before hand, but not the full extent of the plans. and perhaps, it is very plausible vladimir putin essentially lied to beijing about the extent of his plans in ukraine. shery: o chief --shery: our chief north asia correspondent. the deputy assistant secretary general with nato and nato strategic foresight team that advises the alliance on potential crisis situations says vladimir putin underestimated ukraine's resistance, as well as coordinate efforts by western nations. >> i don't see a light at the end ofq the tunnel. particularly -- of the tunnel. vladimir putin has not seemed to change his endgame, bringing ukraine back to russia. so i must admit i don't see a
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quick way out of this crisis. haidi: if this is less about grievances that might be able to be addressed by compromise on the ukrainian side, and more about legacy or empire building, how does the west even begin to manage those expectations? >> so far, the european union has worked greatly together. i think it is something president putin has underestimated. facing assumptions on a rather weak and uncoordinated response by the west. the opposite has been true. also underestimating ukraine's military resistance and underestimated the way president zelensky has been able to mobilize the ukrainians behind him.
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this is basically the strategy that we need -- to support ukraine. both politically, humanitarian way, with military equipment, financially. i think it is very important that we need to be super careful that the conflict doesn't spill over. shery:shery: we are seeing the attacks getting closer to poland, nato members. is there anything specific nato can do at this point? >> we have started to upgrade our own deterrents and defenses. the u.s., french, german, and other nato allies have beefed up their forces. basically across the east and southeastern france. but concerns when i look at the
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current situation, which today, the russians announced another military exercise in that small enclave boarding this away near and poland, -- near lithuania and poland. as fast as possible in order to upgrade defenses. shery: we have just seen the high-level discussions between the u.s. and china, with the biden administration trying to enlist beijing's help. what do you expect from chinese policymakers at this point? >> i think at the end of the day, the chinese need to make up their minds. whether they would like to sit in it together with russia, which is completely isolated with wavering risk around the flattening with nuclear escalation. it happens to be a rather
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unpredictable. since beijing is concerned with safeguarding its strategical objectives, national objectives, including europe, i think they need to make clear on what side they are on. haidi: the former nato deputy assistant secretary general speaking to us earlier. a lot more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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talks will continue over a credit facility to cover the nickel margin and settlement requirements. the wall street journal reporting tencent isf facing a possible record -- possible record fine for possible of the network. wechat pay also know your customer and knowing business regulations. among others, the pboc is said to have discovered during a routine inspection. the report said it has been considered. haidi: looking at fx trading at the moment as the dollar is around the july trading high. the japanese yen holding around the five year low. traders boosting back from the pace of the federal reserve rate hike. the boj holding the easing pattern. the korean won at the moment also strengthening from the may 2020 low as the aussie and kiwi are gaining ground. we are seeing a little bit of a rebound in commodities prices. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "daybreak: asia." the u.s. and china held what the white house is calling substantial discussion on the war in ukraine. the first high-level in person talks since the invasion began. in a meeting that lasted six hours, the u.s. national security advisor and china's top diplomat discussed topics including ukraine, taiwan, and north korea. no specific outcomes or agreements announced by the white house. democratic senator joe manchin says he will oppose the
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nomination of the federal reserve. she represents west virginia and supports an expansion of oil and gas drilling. he joined republicans resisting over her stance on climate change. republican senator pat toomey said the seat for her confirmation as. >> it probably does as a practical matter. i'm not aware of any republican support. i have not spoken with every last republican colleague. i'm not speaking for anybody, but i'm not aware of it. >> the alleged mastermind of the one mdb scandal sold one point $2 million from bond transactions goldman sachs toward the malaysian wealth fund. towards agent vandoren who testified of the trial of the x goldman banker. also, the former malaysian prime minister with $756 million from the bond transaction. the london metals exchange will
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reopen on thursday. more than one week after suspended trading nearly $4 billion of transactions. it will allow the chinese tycoon to standstill with the banks to avoid further margin calls. extremely large short position roiling the market last week. trading set to resume at 8:00 a.m. london time. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quin, this is bloomberg. >> we have just been getting the minutes of lifting rates as well as the yield unchanged as expected. some of those noting they will not be raising rates until inflation is sustainably within target. it is too early to conclude inflation is within that target sustainably. uncertainties persist about how the nature of the inflation, how
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persistent the inflation pickup will be well wages growth remains modest. there is nothing surprising to markets out of the set of minutes. we also heard from the rba governor talking about the need to get wages growth up and the need to see past pressures within the sustainable band. also opening the door ajar, saying there is a possibility rapes can move -- rates can move higher, but also that they are very much dedicated to have the buffer to wait for data and information to come in. and they can still remain patient. the rba minutes also noting it will be some time until the wages growth is in line with the cpi target. we are seeing a mixed session across asia when it comes to the equities picture. the nikkei seeing some modest gains. not so much when it comes to the kospi. trading in sydney, we see some
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real leadership when it comes to financials in banks as we see yields pushing higher globally. . when it comes to australia and new zealand, the 10 year and three year in australia. yields rising. the 10-year breaching the march 2020 pandemic highs. haidi: talking about the pandemic -- shery: talking about the pandemic markets, they have locked down a city near beijing a day after doing the same in the north eastern province. and the tech above change and. officials stepping up efforts to contain the biggest covert outbreak since the start of the pandemic. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's shanghai bureau chief. we have seen the latest city to be on lockdown as we are hearing 198 local covid cases were added in that province. how bad is the situation across the country? >> things don't look that promising. cases have been popping up
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across china. the latest data showed as of yesterday, more than 3000 cases have been reported. i think 14 provinces, nearly half of china's total have been identified to high-risk for the virus. kind of spreading to the entire country. it is the latest city to be locked down a day after china did the same to jean probably -- jean province, and to shenzhen, home of some of the biggest technology companies. the proppants has a population of 20 -- the province has a population of 24 million. the first of its kind since the lockdown. the entire province two years ago. so things are not looking that
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promising at the moment. haidi: haidi: we are hearing from the likes of morgan stanley that they don't expect any gdp -- gdp growth. 5.5 percent was already ambitious. that was set last week. what is the economic impact that is being seen? >> they are expecting zero growth for the current quarter and cut the for your target. obviously, whether how bad the economy will be, how serious the impact will be on the economy depends on how long the lockdown lasts. as i mentioned, the restrictions and the lockdown will definitely dampen economic activities. shenzhen, some of the factories
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including the plant, assembling apples and iphones, suspended production. byd, a major electric car company, has halted production. it depends how long the disruption will last. haidi: let's get some more from our next guest. the rapid deterioration will put more downside pressure on the recovery and more easing policies. great to have you with us. taking a look at the different ways you see the impact, responsible for 11% of total gdp for china. responsible for about 11% of total car output. so these are enormous consequences. does it mean we will see more
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aggressive easing from the pboc to make up for the shortfall? >> thank you for having me today. in terms of the lockdown, it is one of the largest in the lockdown since the beginning of the pandemic. with the question how long it might last, it is uncertain how a local environment controls the pandemic. even with the dynamic controls, the testing and lockdown, the clearing of covid cases can last for a shelter period -- shorter period of time, four or five weeks, consider -- compared to hubei province at the beginning of the pandemic. based on that, even though we see a larger scale of lockdowns, it might be a swifter response this time to the omicron variant.
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but that brings me to the point of bringing forward the urgency of policy easing actions. it is not looking optimistic for much recovery. especially in the consumer services sector. it is very likely the pboc might be easing such as a benchmark rate cut. compared to the downside pressures we see right now. >> we saw record credit expansion. does it give a little bit of a buffer? >> i think credit expansion was one of the key focus for the pboc easing policy. so in january, it was very optimistic with flows of long growth. but there was a flight in medium to long-term growth. in q1, it remains uneven and unstable. it means there is more easing
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needed to boost long growth credit expansion. >> why is that? is the economy not as active as policymakers would want? or is the transmission mechanism not filtering through? >> i think if we look at the fundamental pictures, the property sector has been slowed down significantly since last year. we have not seen a decent or stable recovery in the sector, especially from a demand price. so mortgage growth has not been rising significantly. that is partly because of the tightening or control policies still in place, which have not been significant easing. mechanism, the pboc is trying to leverage on a variety of policy issues, including quantity and price based policies. they probably still have some
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transmission channels on the policy. the pboc has not yet fully achieved the transition mechanism from the price based policy. shery: all of this easing in the monetary side of things, fiscal support, as well. what can we expect on the leverage side of things? before the economic issues, what chinese policymakers wanted to do was to the economy. >> i fink on the deleveraging part, the medium-term package that we do not expect any fundamental or substantial change for the policy direction. i would say we are in the late phase of trading, or the majorities of the debt reduction has been done and there is a slower growth momentum we would expect deleveraging policy to ease marginally to offset the downside growth pressures. our forecast for leverage this
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shery: russia is planning a temporary export ban on the eurasian economic union. the latest blow to the global food system blocked by inflation since before the invasion. for more on this, let's bring in our reporter. the exports flow from russia had already slowed before this. so what impact will it actually have? >> to begin this, we are watching really volatile markets. it is pretty crazy. we are seeing it on every new development in the situation over in russia and ukraine. after the invasion by russia. basically, it is added pressure on what is already a tight supply situation. we saw prices spike yesterday
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when the news came out. they dampened a little bit with concern over the u.s. interest rates and whether it might heard commodities. a really volatile situation traders are watching quickly. shery: where can we expect prices to go? it is a very volatile space right now. >> it is an interesting question. upward pressure on prices, goldman came out last week. it was the biggest supply shock since the great grain robbery of the 1970's. it is interesting looking at prices at the moment. they are very high. near record levels. if you look at the 12 month contract, the price action has not been as significant. in reality, looking at the headwind impacts of what the conflict in ukraine is going to
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have, they will be quite significant and extensive in terms of how this plays out for global food markets. i would expect a lot of volatility and elevated prices. haidi: our asia agriculture reporter. we are getting more lines from the march rba meeting. thrown up about the war in ukraine. the risk outlook when it comes to ukraine is a major new source of uncertainty for policymakers. has created extra uncertainty with the cpi outlook. the board is prepared to be patient in that situation. also saying the risk to outlook for wages growth is on the upside. also saying there is uncertainty to how long it will get wages growth to go up to a sustainable level within target. also saying the conditions of the housing market are looking more solid. policymakers in southeast asia
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assessing how the russian invasion will impact their economy. and malaysia's -- spoke with haslinda amin for the business summit. >> this year, we are the commodity exporter. while we would be affected by lower demand, we think the benefit from the commodity prices at the same time for the increase in commodity prices. over a prolonged period for risk inflation. my policies are in place by -- it would somehow cushion the spill over from this perspective in the medium-term, we could see the global manufacturing also being redirected to the region. >> i'm wondering whether you
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have reassessed the number of times the fed is likely to raise rates this year. at least three rate rises maintained for 2022. what are your thoughts? has ukraine changed it? has the fallout in equity markets changed it? >> i think the russian invasion of ukraine and the uncertainties it has are developed -- it has developed are going to change it with the fed numbers. i think instead of making it 50 basis points, it can be 25 basis points. instead of five adjustment, it can be three. we don't know. we are waiting for the action. i think it is necessary to be patient and on our part, we will
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be patient. for those countries, we are not like american countries and some european countries, they have already adjusted rates upwards. except for south korea and new zealand. i think most countries have not adjusted rates. >> what impressions are you making about fed moves in 2022? >> when we look at the spillover to the market, the adjustments that we have seen so far, and more important, the impact of adjustments on the financials, and the asian economy, we expect them to remain manageable for a variety of reasons. we have worked very hard in the asian financial crisis to have a deep look at bond markets. so it will continue to support admissions.
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and more important, the price adjustments in the market. with the economy on that track, any temporary adjustment to the bond yield should provide a good opportunity for investors. >> could china be a bigger risk than russian attacks on ukraine? can china be the risk? >> i think so. it is more connected with the world rather than russia. i think the contribution of russia to global economy is much less compared to china. whether a slow retirement can have a bigger risk right now in between russia and ukraine. shery: the central bank governors of the philippines and
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bank speaking to haslinda amin at the asean business summit. you can see the full conversation, which begins on wednesday at 3:00 p.m. hong kong time. join virtually by registering at bloomberg live.com. haidi: up next, finding out what is in store for markets in china after a brutal selloff extended into the u.s. session. this is bloomberg.
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shery: gripping the chinese markets with stocks less than in hong kong off of their worst day since the financial crisis. the renewed route in the u.s. session setting up for another volatile session ahead. let's bring in david ingles. should we expect fireworks in your show today? >> either way, i think that will happen. if anyone from the nasdaq is listening, for the moment we should rethink the name. we should take out golden and dragon. bronze poppy might be good for that. let's get the breakdown. we are at a low point, extremely oversold conditions. whether it is actionable is
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different altogether. the other thing i point out is how bearish the market is, put/call volume and the ratio. we are nearing highs we had back in 2021. a little bit more. it takes you all the way back to levels of 2020. fireworks, direction, unclear. >> the chart really suggests he's got to be brave to find opportunities. >> yes. even if there is value, be prepared for another 15%, 20% drop. a good example, j.p. morgan came out yesterday. basically said at the moment, internet is an investable in china. they have a 60 handle underpriced target for alibaba. just to give you an expectation. that being said, there is some discrepancy and extremes taking
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place. they and h-shares at an extreme level. in previous years, it has served as a ceiling. we will see if that is the case. buying across the stock connect for consecutive days. the amount you had yesterday in terms of net buying from investors into the hong kong stock market at seven highest of the year. so people have been buying these dips. haidi: if we see the mls move to the downside, that might give a bit of a boost it needs. our markets anchor will be all over that in the next hour. we will get the outlook from china. ubs global wealth management will be joining us ahead of the day luge of activity. and knocking down another city. that is it for "daybreak: asia." coverage continues. shery: looking ahead to the start of trade in hong kong,
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