>> we have seen demand continuing to be strong, irrepressible even, and pressuring supplies. >> we might get some sort of alleviation given this break -- given the spike in energy prices. >> the market has discounted quite a lot in terms of future hiking in global rates. >> obviously there's a giant wildcard out there, and that is russia, but we are optimistic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, one day

before a fed meeting, it is markets and oil on the move. we are going to do a different opening this half-hour. we've got such an important set. let's go right to it. brent, $130, under $100. jonathan: at the highs right now, $99. $40 swing. did it become too crowded. is the china outlook starting to weigh on the outlook? down 7% today alone. tom: what does washington do? lisa: given the fact that they were combining about high oil prices, blaming put in, all of the sudden you have this issue with it crashing down. does that lead to lower gas prices? how does a message this heading into the midterm election? tom: later, our conversation of the day, with michael bell jp morgan on the greater view. we will get to ellen wald in a moment. it is "surveillance." i'm looking at curve steepening near 30 basis points. tom: -- jonathan: the nasdaq 100

yesterday in a bear market. futures up 0.3% on the nasdaq 100. on the s&p, up a little more than 0.1 percent. yields in a basis point. quite a turnaround on twos as well, right now 1.83%. last week in the 1.40's. tom: right now we start strong with ellen wald on this move in oil, senior fellow at atlantic council, author of "saudi." how does the world change for saudi when oil plunges down under $100? ellen: this is a very big plunge, but i think it does show , and one respect, the opec was not wrong when they were saying that the high prices were not exactly due to the supply and demand situation in

fundamentals, but that there was a lot of financial speculation acting on prices, and had they just increased production, it might not have actually even had the effect that a lot of countries like the u.s. were looking for. so i do think that in some respects, this does vindicate their position. jonathan: what do you think is behind the turnaround? why such a massive move the last couple of days? ellen: there are a bunch of factors. most of them are more financial. we think the oil market was probably overcompensating or had been higher than it should have been, given the supply and demand situation. i think that news that russian crude is selling for $30 compared to the benchmark prices is a helpful thing that kind of brought things down.

i think this was to be expected. i did kind of indicate that this is something we could expect to happen, though i did not see it happening quite this soon. i think news that india purchased cargo for $30 under the benchmark was definitely helpful in showing the market that russian crude can still be moved, and it is going to be moving at a discount. this combined with the fact that we are seeing a lot of lockdowns and closures in china and in other areas of china due to rising covid cases is definitely an indication that demand in china could get hit, and china is the world's largest oil importer. lisa: these are all reasons that we can give, a narrative that we can give to this move, but it feels different. it feels like a violent short squeeze.

i wonder if there is something significant or a historic precedents to the volatility we have seen that has been unbelievable, like $30, $40 swings in this benchmark price that affects almost everything that we buy. ellen: i am not sure if we can find a historical precedent for such huge volatility. i think we are in a period of huge volatility come about part of the reason the volatility is so great is because we've got inflation acting on oil prices, so everything is magnified because of this, and the oil market, there is so much more financial speculation, and it is so much more determined by trading bennett was in the late 1970's. -- trading then it was in the late 1970's. tom: in continental europe, on the timeline for them to become somewhat energy independent, can saudi come to the rescue? is there something i am missing

when i look for a u.s. centric solution? what can the middle east do? ellen: here is what the middle east can do. i think it will be part of maybe , in the situation that goes on in europe and the u.s. that continue to shun or ban, or even just companies, shunning russian oil, we have india buying a lot more russian oil, so india is going to then buy less from the middle east, and the middle east is going to shift to providing to europe. you have boris johnson talking about going to saudi arabia, the speculation is that saudi is going to produce more, but what is much more likely is that he is going to try to maybe negotiate some kind of deal where the saudis just sell britain more oil, which is more of a shifting pattern as opposed to producing more.

i think we will over time, if these bans or shunning continue, we will see the market reorganize, and as that happens, prices should come down, particularly because the countries that continue to buy russian oil, unless they get sanctioned, will be able to buy it at a discount, and that will affect the price of the benchmarks. it could also affect the price of the benchmarks if they are buying it in currencies other than the dollar, which i think will also cause rises to fall. the thing is that i don't think we have seen the last of high prices. we are in a period of high volatility, not just plunging prices. jonathan: that is a point well made. ellen wald of the atlantic council, making the point there that we are just moving the deck chairs a little bit, trying to work things out, and may be the overall volume on the market is not going to be much lower than it was last time around. at least, that might be an argument this warning.

whether that sticks in the fewmo be seen. lisa:lisa: whether it sticks in the next few hours as we whipsaw around to determine why we are seeing such huge moves. jonathan: the ecb saying thanks with direct exposure to russia -- saying banks with direct exposure to russia, that banks are so far resilient to the exo genous shocks. down 24% from the highs of a number of weeks ago. tom: i want to point out one item, and that is right now, there is something absolutely extraordinary happening. our maria tadeo reporting that some form of three prime ministers are driving across ukraine onto kyiv. seven hours, they turn, they bear less a little bit onto another highway into kyiv. i think that is absolutely as ordinary. jonathan: facing a war zone. european leaders going into a

war zone. we will catch up later on today on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. from the eu, headlines you did not think you would be reading this year, the eu faces no immediate threat to food security. two day meeting starts at the fed. mike mckee, what on earth does the fed do with all of this information, to sit down and actively be forced to come up with some forecasts tomorrow afternoon? michael: i think maybe jay powell comes up to his news conference with a giant shaker of salt because that is the way you're going to have to take the forecast at this point. the best thing i can think of that explains the dilemma they have is you pull up a chart of crude oil and how it went up, it looks like a rocket ship in the middle of february, into february as we get into march and the invasion started from russia, and then it has just dropped off a cliff. what is the fed supposed to do with that? do we have a lot of inflation from energy coming, or is this

just going to be a blip? it is really hard to know. i would not take their forecast with a whole lot of credibility. the only thing i would say is what we will be looking for is how far do they think they have to go and how fast. that is perhaps the market take away. jonathan: what time does the two day meeting start? michael: not :00 -- 9:00. and they are doing this when in person. jonathan: are they really? michael: that is what i have been told. jonathan: interesting. getting back to business. the two day meeting starts in about 50 minutes. tom: listen to the phds because so much of this will be the terminal value of the dot plot. it is something i don't spend that much time on, but nevertheless, there it is. it is a rich meeting in terms of gaming out amidst uncertainty we have never really seen. jonathan: on the demand front,

delta area seeing unparalleled surge in demand. this is what you have been talking about. tom: i can't say this enough, and i've gotten hate mail from the gloom crew on this, peter lynch 101, watch what people are doing. the answer is they are desperately traveling. jonathan: does 'bramo message you? lisa: they are probably just saying wait and see. theoretically, if oil prices go up and the price goes up, whether the demand sticks. just saying, theoretically, a bearish individual. jonathan: futures up 0.1%. you should see the emails that lisa sends us for the show. [laughter] it is on the verge of bullying. crude, $95 on wti. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date

with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. bloomberg has learned u.s. warned europe that russia asked china for drones in late february. the request came just as moscow was beginning its invasion of ukraine. china is not commenting specifically about drones. it called u.s. statements on russian requests for chinese military aid disinformation. in oil prices continues. wti is closing at the highest since 2008 just a week ago. the latest of element is a resurgence of the virus in china, the world's biggest oil importer. those lockdowns aimed at stemming the spread of coronavirus and china disrupting the operations of a number of businesses. apples supplier hon hai is stopping production in shenzhen. lockdowns affect more than 45 million people. walmart technology organization is opening hubs in toronto and

atlanta, according to "the wall street journal." walmart is looking to fill roles in cyber, software engineering, and data science, among others. year after a giant container ship blocked the suez canal and disrupted trade for months, another marine ship has run aground. this time, it got stranded in the chesapeake bay after leaving the port of baltimore. authorities say the grounding is not blocking other vessels. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> gradually, i think the pressure of sections is increasing. the pressure of sanctions is something that has a strong impact in the short and medium-term, but it is not granted that it will change. jonathan: the commissioner for the economy of the eu. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures are positive 0.2% on the s&p. yields coming in a couple of basis points on tens, and this

move in crude is just unreal. down by almost 8%. the companies are adjusting to higher crude prices, and if this is dropping in real time, we are hearing from the airlines. unparalleled surge in demand, the fuel story is adding $15 to $20 per ticket in cost. this from american. they say they have no fuel hedging contracts say they are y exposed to fluctuations in fuel prices. two airlines in the last couple of minutes. tom: the hedging story will be important. nevertheless, oil dynamic now. so is the news flow as three leaders of eastern nations drive across ukraine to meet the gentleman in kyiv. right now, and this was to be a normal conversation on russian

affairs with stephen sestan ovich, there's nothing else to say but his wonderful work at columbia, cornell, and harvard over the years. but we have been derailed by a video that went viral across all of this world on our modern social media, a woman with courage on a russian tv set. we have all seen this. on radio, perhaps many of you have seen it as well. marina has disappeared in protest in moscow. thank you so much for joining us today. what will happen to marina? stephen: marina is not in a good place. i think we can say that for sure. i would not put money on her job tenure. but she has gained a certain protection by becoming so notorious and famous so suddenly. she speaks for a lot of people. russian experts, the

intelligentsia, are all saying openly to westerners, we are depressed. we can't understand what is happening. people want to leave the country. she expressed individually, but for a very large number of russians. tom: what is the potential of mr. putin finding other employment or being derailed in his efforts in ukraine? over the weekend, i thought stephen kotkin of princeton was wonderful, and other articles as well. how do you gauge mr. putin's fragility given his special operation? stephen: if putin wins, he's better off. if he fails, russian leaders are not rewarded for failure. his problem now is that he's got a military offensive that is stalling. he has an economic elite that is

panicked about what is going to happen to their position. he has the intelligentsia depressed and speaking out. western governments are going to be united to do two things in definitely, maintain sanctions and keep arming the ukrainians. that is a formula that makes it hard for him to win. if he does not win, the institutions that have supported him will also be at risk. the russians' political future is more unprintable today than it has been in years. lisa: i wonder, given your experience as an ambassador at large to the soviet union, when 11 -- when vladimir putin took over in 2000, i am wondering who you think could fillet

power void should he be taken down in some capacity. stephen: this is going to be very hard because the institutions that would like to fill that void are going to be weakened and discredited. the military, the intelligence agencies, they have been the spine of the russian system, and yet they are going to look as foolish and is harmful to the country's interest as the communist party did in 1991. remember in the final collapse of the soviet union, it was triggered by the military intelligence people trying to do something immensely stupid, which is to have a coup against gorbachev that the people rose up against. what is happening in ukraine is possibly the same kind of

institution discrediting step that puts everything up for grabs in russian politics. jonathan: got to leave it there, stephen. fantastic to have you on this program, as always. please stay close so we can catch up in the next few weeks. stephen system on a bench -- stephen sestanovich of columbia university. just remember, they still have not fully recovered that story. the good news, previous guidance was down to about 22%, down about 17% for the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2019. tom: this is the new norm, and i support it. we are comparing to 2019, and we have seen some bang out numbers from other corporations enjoying less headaches in the airline business. you've just got to see what they do with fuel being a huge cost. helane becker clearly made that

evident the other day. i like what ed bastian is saying, the planes are full. jonathan: i wonder if we get a turnaround in fuel prices. right now, debbie g.i. brent down big time -- wti and brent down big time. lisa: i wonder, as some of these airlines rethink their futures, whether hedges will be considered an outsized risk based on some of the volatility we have seen in pricing. how does a real company hedge against commodity risk when commodities are trading like penny stocks. jonathan: some big overnight price action as we get more lockdowns in china. crude rolling over, then rolling over, than rolling over a little bit more. crude, brent, w di sub 100 dollars after coming very close to $140 a little more than a week ago. we have seen big moves in the bond market. on tens, right now north of 2% after being in the 1.60's a week

ago. a federal reserve which meets and will most likely drop its full growth forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and the dot plot needs a serious adjustment. all of that coming up tomorrow. special coverage live with the "bloomberg surveillance" team. this is bloomberg.

jonathan: this headline from delta airlines, 200 pilots a month through early 2023. that's a lot of pilots, isn't it? tom: we've heard this before. i'm not expert on where the pilots are, but by all acclaimed they are grossly underpaid. when you go entire those pilots, what are you going to incentivize them with? it is going to be something to watch. jonathan: the today meeting concludes tomorrow. bond yields come in a couple of basis points, 2.1%. look out below, empire manufacturing. let's get to mike mckee. michael: good morning. you mentioned empire, the new york version of the ism index,

down 11.8%. that is an index number. it was 3.1 in the month of february, so a big drop in manufacturing production, it seems, in new york, looking underneath the index. rices for goods seem to have gone up a little bit, while prices received for the raw materials they need goes down a little bit. that is some good news. but the ppi shows something also very interesting. final demand ppi up 0.8% on the month, down from 1% last month. takeout food and energy and ppi was up only 0.2% in the month, down from 0.8%, so a big drop in the increase in producer prices over the month of february. you take out the additional trade, which is retailer and wholesaler margins, you get a

0.2% increase as well. so over the year-over-year, we see the ppi for final demand up by 8.4%, ex-food and energy, 10% on a year-over-year basis headline. but it looks like maybe some good news going forward in terms of producer prices. we were restrained last month. jonathan: is that a leading indicator? michael: not necessarily a leading indicator. it does not translate directly into cpi. there's a lot of people between the producers and the final consumers, but it does indicate some interesting relaxation of pressure on the overall cost of goods. the price of goods for final demand was up 2.4%, but services unchanged. so maybe we got a services increase out-of-the-way last month. something the fed is going to be following, but it won't be

decisive. tom: is are going to be a press conference tomorrow? michael: of course there's going to be a press conference tomorrow. tom: very good. jonathan: i am pleased he is there, tom, and one of us has done some reading for the federal reserve tomorrow. tom: that's good. michael mckee getting ready for tomorrow's meeting. very important, these headlines on sanctions. jonathan: just working through a statement from the u.k. foreign office. 370 new sanctions over russia's invasion of ukraine. dissensions hit vladimir putin's key political allies, according to this statement. we will do some work on that. tom: right now, this is a really important conversation, kathy bostjancic has been doing this a long time, now at oxford economics, their chief financial economist. you look for a higher sustained inflation. this chairman powell do with 8.7% inflation? kathy: good morning.

i think he's got to stay pretty hawkish in his policy stance. they are only going to go 25 basis points tomorrow. i think if it were not for the upper cavort in ukraine, we would be looking at 50 basis points. they have made inflation their top priority, and it continues to be so. he's going to have to lead the fomc to be pretty consistent and relatively aggressive compared to what we have seen over previous tightening cycles, so maybe 25 basis points tomorrow, but he may hold out the possibility of 50 basis points for any given meeting going forward, especially if we are correct and inflation at the headline, cpi pops up to 8.7% by the spring. lisa: what does jay powell do if there is evidence of a slowing economy, but inflation stays high?

kathy: this is the worst world for central banks, this idea of a stagflationary shock. we don't think overall we are in stagflation. it is a stagflationary shock, but we think there is strong enough momentum that you will see growth around 3%. even if the economy slows, and it should, that is not going to deter them. we would have to see something looking like we are heading to a precipice of recession, and that does not look to be in the cards for now. lisa: i am looking at the economic data that came out. it does seem to be a slowing when you strip out food and energy costs, so that might feed into this feeling that perhaps we are starting to stabilize. the bad news was that empire manufacturing plunged. i wonder if there are signs that things are really grinding to a halt in the face of some of the inflation and worker shortages that really have been crimping some of the capacity at different companies. kathy: it is something we have

been watching, but overall, regional surveys have been a bit volatile. producers are still finding ways to get their goods out the door, even if they face some job constraints. but overall, industrial production still looks very healthy, as does manufacturing activity. jonathan: the last time we had a forecast from the fed i think was the middle of december. that was a long time ago. i'm looking at the dot plot for 2023, 1.60%, 2.4%. i imagine they will do forecasts tomorrow. what happens with that dot plot in the summary of economic projections? what does it look like? kathy: we think the dot plot estimates have to go massively higher for this year and a bit higher for 2023.

we would not be surprised to see it go from three rate hikes 75 basis points to 100 basis points. maybe it does not go the full 175 we expect in the markets, but certainly a big shift. we think that by next year, they have to start seeing their data towards a stricter policy stance. jonathan: is that the peak in the rate hiking cycle for you? kathy: our neutral rate is a little lower than 2%, so we think it goes slightly above that, and that would be the case in 2023. we worry about in the middle of 2023 that we could get a little soft and potential growth. tom: what does nominal gdp due to the mood of america? if i add eight to it, that is china like, isn't it? kathy: yes, there's no doubt that as the inflation component

is very strong, these inflation numbers really look like something from another part of the world, not here in the u.s.. you have to go back to the 1980's. so nominal gdp matters. i would say from a corporate standpoint, the corporations need to maintain pricing power to take advantage of that. for consumers, wages have to continue to rise for them to keep spending, but of course, then there's the problem of the fed. if wages start to rise, you have a wage price -- a wage price spiral that adds to the problems we see in the supply chains, which are being aggravated by the war. lisa: i am curious about the situation in china we are seeing come of the lockdowns, some of the supply chain response. we have seen walmart and amazon come out and say you can inspect to see some delays in shipping. how significant is this in terms of a contributor to inflation going forward?

kathy: it is just another headwind and a ripple through supply chains that are already very stressed. we have seen some nascent signs of improvement and supply chains. maybe the ppi data was picking up some of that. but you had seen that at year-end, but i think some of this gets reversed because of the war and now because of what is happening in china. so i think this is a significant step back of supply chains that is only going to add to inflation repressive. jonathan: -- inflation pressures. jonathan: kathy, thank you, as ever. it was the trick of 2021. margins held up through last year. can they repeat the act in 2022? how may times have we ask that? tom: dovetail it, right into it what we heard, and that is the animal spirits.

i get all the medium-term, long-term mumbo-jumbo. on a short-term basis, the illusion of prosperity from inflation is tangible, not to all, but to some of the public. that is where you get that outsized demand in that spirit feeds on itself into high unit demand in selected industries among selected americans. jonathan: one man with thoughts on this, mike wilson of morgan stanley. i will catch up with him in about 20 minutes' time. lisa: how much are the wealthy individuals going to keep going out and spending, and what about the others who are perhaps not seeing the same type of real wage growth? i really find this call interesting, that he sees bonds as a hedge again. that is fascinating. jonathan: essentially suggesting the fed is going to have a tough time engineering a soft landing. lisa: and an inverted yield curve because it is going to basically collapse on itself which to something other people are seeing, too. jonathan: i said the team would do a -- would do some

work on this statement from the foreign office. they are sentient and president putin's key political allies. that includes the defense minister and the former russian prime minister, and aim familiar to many people, dmitry medvedev. tom: he is occupied fully with a very difficult military campaign. it is a special operation, and it is specially not going well. jonathan: except, for everyone else, it is an invasion. futures up 0.6% on the s&p, on the nasdaq, but 0.9 percent. this turnaround in crude, we will talk about it throughout the morning on tv and radio. $96.33 on wti. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine's president volodymyr

zelensky says talks with russia are resuming today. in a video address, zelensky said the ukrainian delegation did good work. he also urged russian soldiers to stop fighting. china wants to avoid being impacted by u.s. sanctions over russia's war area that comes from the foreign minister. it was one of beijing's most explicit statements yet on american penalties. concerns are growing amongst investors that chinese companies will face sanctions or get american officials said russia requested military and financial assistance from beijing. more sanctions placed on russia and belarus. britain is banning the export of luxury goods to the nations, and also reverting there most -- also revoking their most favored nation status. that means they will face an additional 35 percent tariff. london heathrow airport, verdant atlantic airways -- virgin

atlantic airways are dropping mask mandates. most pandemic related rules in england were dropped last month. it is the world's largest movie theater chain and a darling of the meme stock investors. now amc entertainment is buying 22% of a gold and silver mining company in nevada or get is taking a stake in high court mining. the end -- the amc ceo says they have rocksolid assets. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we in the collective west are nevertheless sending billions of dollars a week to russia for

their oil and gas. this is funding the war machine. if we are going to be serious about this, and i think we should become a we need to shut that off. tom: patrick toomey there, the senator in conversation with bloomberg. we appreciate that. futures up 23. the vix comes in fractionally. 31.88. the oil of choice today, $100 a barrel on brent crude. in the keene household long ago and far away, we understood that not everybody writing on the markets came from new york city. down in newport news was someone named paul montgomery, and you read him religiously, or at least my selected parents did. barry rid hope snows that paul montgomery had a huge impact on how we study markets, and it is not snarky to say that esther montgomery invented how we look at hemlines and magazine covers. it paul montgomery say about

today's magazine covers in crisis? barry: he was very much a data driven behavioral economists before such a thing existed. whenever there was a popular trading desk miss, paul would go back and look at the data and say, is this right or wrong? so when he looked at magazine covers, he found they fell into distinct groups, popular magazines and business magazines. one had great residents for noting tops and bottoms. the other, pretty random, and did not mean anything. tom: i look at the study today, and it is not weekly magazines. you and i were buffeted by minute by minute social media with a short timeframe. how do we look for contrarian

indicators given the new speed of information? barry: there's a lot of hedge funds and other data geeks that are scraping twitter and trying to see if there is actionable information contained in the whole of sentiment as indicated by the quality and sentiment of various posts. some have done it better than others. it is not quite a perfect science yet. it is a little bit of art, and it has been pretty inconsistent. but the thinking is simply when you get a very crowded trade or a very crowded market perspective, when everybody is bullish on oil, as an example, and runs the price up to $130, and the russian minister of trade comes out and says let's see how the west likes $300 oil, i could tell you that was pretty much the top, and here we are

one to 5% lower a few days later. in speculative markets, emotions get the better of traders. lisa: on the oil story for a minute, that is a shocking move we have seen, the round-trip over the past two weeks. how do traders new for around fluctuations like that not just in bitcoin, not just penny stocks, but in benchmark commodities that feed into all other prices, which seems to be the new world we are in, at least for now? barry: let's use lumber from last year as an example. you had everybody stuck in an apartment building with their spouse and their kids, and it was no elbow space, remote work, remote learning, remote play. people want a little room, so there was a mass move to pick up some houses far beyond the available supply of single-family homes. so what happens? people start building more homes

and the demand for lumber skyrockets. but as every commodity trader knows, the cure for high prices is high prices. when lumber prices double, the mills go out and cut more trees, and lo and behold, now there's additional supply. that seems to happen with very few exceptions. semiconductors, which have this long ramp up period to when you are starting from scratch to actually produce chips, the cure for high prices is high prices eventually, but it is not like go cut down a tree. lisa: this all makes sense over a period of a year or six months or even a month, not necessarily two days, right? you are not going to get that kind of response in a day. you are not able to game it out in a day. i wonder if the fluctuations we are seeing in commodities has changed the game and made it more difficult, more harrowing for investors to use as that hedge to inflation. what are your thoughts on that? barry: keep in mind, when we

look at the futures markets, you have the hedgers who are actually consuming or producing or selling the commodity, and then you have the speculators. in a fast-moving situation like a war with russia and ukraine, the consensus and the thought process, sometimes that knee-jerk reaction is wrong or fails to consider all of the other aspects. so the spike in oil is 3% of the world oil market is now not going to be selling into the global economy. oh my god, there's a shortfall. and by the next day, it is like, oh, but china is going to buy it. this is why boycotting any production of any goods finds its way into the market, so all of a sudden, china, instead of buying it from australia or the middle east, is going to buy it from russia. they goes your spike in oil. tom: we've got to run.

we got headlines. but can you get me your bracket before wednesday so i can copy it? barry ritholtz on march madness, but also on markets and where oil is. we have seen another level of sanctions -- sanctions from the united kingdom. lisa: the flood of companies exiting their russian operations continues. eli lilly is suspending investments in new clinical trials in russia, just another when added to that growing list. tom: in this extraordinary march, we have to end on the reporting of maria tadeo. it is very circumspect. there are three leaders of eastern europe, poland, -- poland, czech, pennsylvania,

traveling into kyiv -- czech, and slovenia, traveling into kyiv. stunning. we travel towards the fed meeting tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to another special bnp paribas open update, for bloomberg tv and radio. monday started with a major upset. top seed daniil medvedev sent packing by gael monfils in straight sets. medvedev's defeat means novak djokovic will now replay the number one spot next week -- will now reclaim the number one spot next week. 21 time major champ raffaella kept his record intact against dan evans,

clinching the win in the second set. don't forget, tennis channel's extensive daily live coverage from indian wells all starts at 1:00 p.m. eastern. ♪

at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity.

jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. "the count down to the open" starts now. >> this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new we are back in two bear market. >> completely cautious. >> news regime. >> new markets. >> this is exacerbating all the issues that were already there. >> the fed, the war, commodity prices. it is a pretty tall list. >> geopolitical risk coming to the forefront. >> it is a modicum of uncertainty. >> leaves room for discussion. >> it is a tricky environment. >> tough time obviously. >> we are at one of the longest corrections for the nasdaq since th