>> very good morning. we are counting down to the major market open. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories, asian stocks make it a boost as the railing in chinese shares eases and oil slides. ukraine and russia set to resume talks a later as kyiv calls negotiations difficult. president biden will double to

europe. an interview with a minister of foreign affairs. we are getting the latest unemployment numbers for the month of february, adjusted jobless rates coming in at 2.7%. the estimate was 3%. this 2.7% number was actually a very sharp fall and perhaps one of the lowest numbers when it comes to the jobless rate. right now, the south korea jobless rate for the month of february coming in at 2.7%. much lower than expected, given at in february we had more of an easing of restrictions when it comes to the coronavirus

pandemic. haidi: look at how we are sitting up in australia, and new zealand -- setting up in australia and new zealand. some of these new rules that allow vaccinated australians to enter new zealand without having to isolate from april 12 and that portal open to other visa waived countries including the u.s. and u.k. on may 1. huge relief for the tourism sector and you can see that in stocks rallying today. pretty flat beginning to the cash session. a bit of an upside when it comes to the australian bond yield. up .1%, and are the big gainers are the airport and tourism operators. chicago and mckay futures --

nikkei futures looking up. shery: it is reversing those gains and the nasdaq 100 futures are under pressure. it was a calm session given that we did get weak manufacturing data and that fused that she is fears about aggressive fed tightening. east fears. ed fears. we may see some progress in the iran nuclear deal's and the ongoing markdowns in china. president biden said to be ready to announce more than $1 billion in military aid for ukraine. this is as moscow and kyiv is

set to resume talks. what are you hearing? >> it does sound like this money is coming out of the budget that the president signed into law today. that budget bill included more than $13 billion in aid for ukraine. we are hearing about how much of that could be going to the military. the president did say that you would have more marks on ukraine on wednesday, we get a bit more detail on what exactly will be going on in terms of military support, economic support, and we will be hearing a lot about this because we are hearing from the ukrainian president, addressing congress tomorrow morning as well. this comes ahead of president biden's trip next week to europe. >> we have seen atop a republican lawmakers pressuring the president on this delivery of some of these equipment and

arms to ukraine. what kind of domestic pressure is the president facing at the moment? >> the pressure has been from both sides of the aisle to make sure that they continue the support. you see a lot of alignment between democrats and republicans within the white house. there were issues in the past, the oil import ban that congress was ready to move on and am almost forced the white house to move ahead of them. you do see a lot of lockstep in bipartisan support for the confusion support for ukraine -- continued support for ukraine. >> we have an alert on the bloomberg, the ukrainian president will be seeking to deliver a speech to japan's parliament the diet. he has already scheduled to speak to congress in the rare wartime address.

he is expected to plead with u.s. lawmakers for more a on wednesday. . >> aid on wednesday. japan is to remove the most favored trade partner designation from russia. raskin has withdrawn her nomination after a powerful democrat took away his support. kathleen is here with more. it was joe manchin who held the key. >> he has held the key many times in the past year. close battle between republicans and democrats on an issue. she was caught in the middle

when she was nominated by president biden, a former member of the board of governors. a lot of people thought it would be relatively smooth sailing through the senate. it has turned out not to be and it has everything to do with her position on climate change and how they fit should deal with it when they look at the financial risks banks have. she has been a supporter of saying that they should have to account for this, it should be part of stress test. it was supported by progressives like elizabeth warren. many republicans have pushed back, the ranking republican on the senate banking committee, this is the committee or the vote has to go to put it on the floor of the senate. they pushed back against this climate view, joe manchin announced he cannot get on board either. he is from west virginia, a coal producing state. he is concerned about pushing back on financing banks.

that is how the republican opponents look at this. president biden is happy about this. he can now move ahead with his nominations of jerome powell to be the chair, vice chair, and the board of governors. this is all about what the fed signals for the future. the 25 basis point rate hike is fully priced in. the ppi is red-hot. 10% year-over-year in the month of february. watch the dots and see what they tell us about the fed's you on inflation. -- view of inflation. you see the your looks for inflation at 6%, that is a

record high on this survey. if they have more dovish views, they may signal for five rate hikes in the median. if it is more aggressive, more worried about inflation, seven rate hikes is what we might see. they could send some signals that move the markets in either direction. 50 basis point dissent, two or three look for the bigger hike would catch people's attention. >> good work. going through some of the options going into that meeting. let us turn to markets, the other big story has been the chinese stocks listed on the u.s. exchanges. hefty losses, equities coverage, the dip buying comes after a extraordinary multi-day selloff. i never want to ask this when it

comes to chinese equities, but is there a sense that they are close to the bottom? >> that is the million-dollar question. halfway hit the bottom -- have we hit the bottom? it is a 5% rally that we saw on the golden dragon index today. it was a broader market rally across the u.s.. if you dig a little deeper and look at the individual adrs that we are moving today, some of the bigger stocks are still down on the day. they closed lower for a fourth straight day. we did see some other tech stocks rising today. it does bring in a bit of caution and make to question whether or not this rally is here to stay or not. >> the fact that perhaps the pboc, the monetary policy and fiscal policy would ease in china.

we do not necessarily see that. when will be the next upcoming catalyst? >> the first thing is going to be what comes through with the fed tomorrow. a lot of it may not move chinese markets at that point, it is still something that could push chinese adrs higher or lower depending on what the broader market is doing. the sentiment is cautious on china. nothing has changed overnight in the u.s. and into the asian morning. covid cases are rising, there are concerns about regulatory crackdowns, people are worried about delisting issues. there are more concerns that are coming through that we have not seen any sort of relief to come throughout this point. this is what people are going to be paying attention to. in earnings, transit has to report as well. -- tencent has to report as well.

>> let us get to the first word headlines. >> the shanghai government was companies in the main commercial district to allow staff to work from home to stop the spread of covid. authorities are rolling out an immediate need for a full account of the financial hub. shanghai reported 105 new cases compared with two at the start of the month. mica says bitcoin is likely to continue to trade as the fed hikes rates. the founder of galaxy digital forecasted a 222 trading band of $50,000 of coins. in an expose of interview, he commented whether cryptocurrencies could one the impact of sanctions on russia. -- blunt the impact of stenches on russia. >> it is wrong to think that russia could use it to get

around sanctions. we should be thrilled that russians can get some of their money in bitcoin so that they are not holding worthless rules. >> saudi arabia is to conduct oil sales to china in yuan. current strategist say saudi arabia appears to be sending a political message to washington that the dollar's dominance is not under threat. exporting natural gas, national iranian will companies has invited others to view infrastructure. the push comes as europe tries to cut reliance on russian energy and world powers negotiate sanctions relief for the islamic republic.

global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: let us take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to trading in australia. the top gainer when it comes to the sydney session is magellan financial. buying back shares on issue. quite a bit over 8% in terms of the stock trading at the moment. the on market buyback announced today is an effective way to enhance value for shareholders. shareholders agree at the moment. the actual number of shares purchased will vary on market conditions and other factors as well. we heard that the board was considering the intention for a market buyback. we are seeing the stock reacting positively to the news. a backdrop of broader, more

subdued gains for the asx 200. we have our excessive interview with vivian on china's exercise on influence on russia during the war on ukraine. our next guest is leaning towards profitability and size as uncertainty around the war remains. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are seeing some upside for asian stocks trading at the moment with the effects of 200 being led higher by technology and health care stocks. interesting, and the energy sector, continues to trade below the $100 a barrel level. perhaps we are seeing progress in the iran nuclear talks. u.s. futures under pressure after stocks rallied in wall street. it was a calm session, some of the figures about fed

tightening being eased a little bit. property, value, and size, loreen gilbert joining us. are we talking about more large caps, perhaps away from the growth stocks? >> we have moved our sentiment from a risk onto more of a risk off mode since the beginning of the year with the geopolitical concerns and the increased ability of a slowdown, potentially sex elation and if potentially stagflation. certainly, looking at the portability of the companies we are purchasing, it all makes sense. >> funny that you mentioned stagflation.

this survey by the bank of america showing that the most investors -- most investors think we are going into a bear market because the market is under pressure. what does this tell you about the effect that the growth slowdown could have on the market if we are also pricing in a fed put? >> i think we learn a lot tomorrow, we need to listen to what the fed has to say. not only the amount of the rate hike which we think 25 basis points, what are the additional comments that are made to give us guidance going forward? that is priced into the market. what is not priced in is a consumer who pulls back. with increasing inflation, continuing to be an issue with

the geopolitical situation, how much is that going to change consumer sentiment? with oil pulling back, that is going to help the consumer. there is a direct correlation between oil prices going up and the consumer pulling back. where we are today is a much more comfortable place than we were a week ago. -- where we were a week ago. >> this really, when it comes to oil prices has thrown a wrench into the economy. qc opportunities -- do you see opportunities? >> we have pulled in more domestically than internationally. looking for the catalyst that will say we are good to go back in and have more an overweight. we have are underweight all over the globe -- we have an underweight all over the globe. the situation, the chinese

story of the properties, given all of the concerns and how much china impacts em altogether, we are a ways from increasing that. >> are you fully invested right now? where do you put those? how do you hedge? >> we have pulled in as we have become more defensive. looking for more of a bottom. we do not think we have seen the bottom of the market yet. holding onto cash makes sense. we have been hedging, we have a long-short position that helps us on the alternative side. it allows us the opportunity to go in more aggressively when we see things calm down. looking for the geopolitical situation to calm down and

looking for an opportunity to put that cash to work. >> is always great to have you with us -- it is always great to have you with us. today's addition of daybreak, -- edition of daybreak, you can customize settings as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> with the sporadic opus across the country, because epidemic situation -- sporadic cases across the country because of the epidemic situation, it will have an impact on the local economy. it is generally stable.

economic functions have remained stable. >> but is a spokesperson on the impact of the latest outbreaks on the economy -- that is a spokesperson on the impact of the latest outbreaks on the economy. it could inflict the heaviest corn virus related growth with the additional threat of cynic supply shocks rippling across the world. strong demand for electric cars leaves the maker of the porche behind. the nickel market remains closed. week after the london exchange -- a week after the london

exchange stopped a short squeeze . bloomberg expects prices to fall. shery: we are seeing metals leading down as we see the growth concerns around the world , given the lockdowns around china. we are seeing wti losing ground in the asian session. turning around $95 a barrel after the progress in the iran nuclear talks. president putin casting doubt on the success of talks with ukraine. it has led to the drop in wheat prices. gold also holding steady at around $1800 levels. we are heading towards the fed meeting as well. terminal users can read more about those stories on supply lines. singapore's foreign minister

calls on china to exercise its enormous influence on russia. our conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

>> they are making absurd claims about biological labs and chemical weapons in ukraine. this is just another lie. we are concerned they are going to stage a false flag operations possibly including chemical weapons. >> the crisis is hitting the economy just after the expansion

was gaining momentum. the fundamentals are solid. shery: high-level officials on the impact of the war in ukraine. singapore has taken the step of imposing sanctions on russia without seeking approval from the un security council. in an exclusive interview, the foreign minister called on china to exercise what he called its enormous influence. >> the fact that it is such a dangerous precedent, the fact it abrogates laws -- norms of international law, the charter of the united nations, the fact it's a big neighbor invading a smaller neighbor, the fact that it tramples over the concept of

territorial integrity. even the allusion to historical mistakes and crazy decisions also ring alarm bells. >> how do you expect china to respond? there are reports russia is looking to china for assistance, perhaps even for weapons. >> i am in no position to comment. i am making the point that china does have important principles at stake to affirm, and to live up to. i am making the point that china has far more than even russia in terms of its economic stake in an integrated, multilateral rules-based world. china will make its own decisions. >> what are you looking from china to prevent the bifurcation you're concerned about?

>> i think the first thing china has enormous influence on russia, both politically, economically, diplomatically. i hope they will assert their influence with the usual chinese characteristics, quietly, discreetly, but effectively. that is the hope. whether this is wishful freaking -- thinking, we will see. >> these rising geopolitical tensions. do you think at some point this will lead to an arms race? we had seen europe be thing up its defense spending, australia doing the same. singapore spends about 2% on defense. could we see an arms race?

or the world for that matter? >> i would take a step back and say, what has been remarkable over the past few decades, particularly over the last four decades, is what some commentators have called a peace dividend. meaning, the prospects of a world war, the prospects of the major comply duration were so low, many companies in europe could afford to spend less on defense. i think it's a mistake to assume that is the norm. when you are watching now, even if you watch germany and other european countries, you are getting a reversion to the mean. that means every country needs to make sure, as we do in singapore, that we have invested enough to be able to defend our own interest.

nobody is going to shed blood for you. you have to stand up and be prepared to fight. haidi: the foreign minister for singapore speaking to haslinda. you can see that whole interview , viewers can join virtually, you can register at bloomberg live.com. vonnie: president biden will travel to brussels to meet nato and european allies. it will be his first to europe since russia invaded ukraine. he will take part in an extra ordinary summit set for next thursday, the white house did not confirm whether biden has plans to travel with -- to other countries or meet with volodymyr zelensky. the prime ministers of poland,

czech republic and slovenia have traveled to kyiv. the journey was coordinated by the european union which is set to announce a report package. russia and ukraine are set to resume cease-fire negotiations later wednesday, ukraine's negotiator flagged what he called fundamental contradictions between the sides , but said there is room for compromise. earlier, vladimir putin said ukraine was not serious about finding a peaceful resolution. kyiv has imposed a curfew. president biden's nominee has withdrawn after it became clear they did not have the votes to be confirmed. chances evaporated after joe manchin announced he would not support her. in a letter to biting, raskin said she was criticized for her view on climate change and

costs. the shanghai government in china wants companies in its commercial district to allow staff to work from home, however another district is ruling out the immediate need for a full lockdown. shanghai reported 105 new cases tuesday, compared with two at the start of the month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: coming up next, the london metal exchange set to reopen later on after suspending trades for more than a week following the unprecedented short squeeze. we have the details ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: take a look at the yuan. south -- saudi arabia was in talks with beijing. we have indication sanctions could precipitate the end of the u.s. dollar role as the world reserve in currency, given the

broader selloff in chinese assets. the dominance of the chinese yuan rising in the world against the u.s. dollar has been talked about for a while, this is the share of swift payments for the yuan. china has made the internationalization of the yuan a top priority, and we are seeing some countries seek to reduce dependence on the u.s.. however, affect strategist say if we see such a move from saudi arabia, that would not necessarily be a game changer. we know that the saudi read is pegged to the u.s. dollar, it would see weakness in the u.s. currency that can affect the kingdom. turning to the latest and commodities, seeing a pullback in oil futures. nickel trading set to resume in

london where market participators are bracing for another wild ride. su keenan joins us for the latest. we are seeing another like lower in the asian session. su: it's been a significant come down, if we go directly to the bloomberg, many analysts are talking about a round-trip for oil, shop way above its average to get to never before seen highs, multiyear highs. now it's coming back down, more than 20% from those peaks we saw a week ago and some of the most tumult was trading the market has ever seen. one analyst says the market is trading on two things, hope and fear. let's take a look at west texas intermediate which closed below $97 and has dropped below $96, as we have seen asian trading pickup.

traders see fundamental and technical reasons the short-term direction could be lower from here. there are signals the iran nuclear talks could resume, that paves the way for more supply. the lockdown in china. also, a lot of traders are saying with brent oil, you have the rise and fall of the noise surrounding the ukraine-russia talks, there was briefly a significant pullback when putin threw water on progress. analysts say is generally priced in a positive outcome on this, so we have seen the slowdown in the decline. in the midst of all of this, there has been a liquidity crunch. what we mean is clearing houses have been increasing the margins on the trading houses and traders involved in oil, and that makes it more expensive.

open interest has collapsed to the lowest since 2015, all of that putting pressure on the price at this moment. haidi: we have to talk about this wild ride in nickel. the lme is starting to resume trade, the incredible chaos. what are we expecting when trading resumes? su: when it comes to chaos, what we saw was nickel was historic. let's go to the chart. we had a metals tycoon known as a big shot in ache chinese community, he struggled with margin calls to banks and brokers when nickel pete on the chart. in 24 hours, it rose to 50%. that was march 8. he was unable to pay margin calls, and in a widely controversial move, the lme erased several hours of trades

and halted the market of nickel for a few weeks. that royalty industry. it :00 a.m. london time on march 16 wednesday, the market will reopen. a lot of speculation. first of all, the banks led by j.p. morgan agree to a standstill on the calls. they are going to suspend any more margin calls so we don't have a repeat on the short squeeze, we saw that on the eighth. bloomberg has pulled many traders and analysts, all are expecting a decline in the price of nickel and a buckle your seatbelt kind of day. the commodities world continues to rock 'n' roll through this momentary point in history. back to you. haidi: su keenan there ahead of lme reopening. speaking of an asset class, bitcoin has been locked in its

narrowest trading range in more than a year. of course, the cryptocurrency is no stranger to wild moves, but mark nova groep says this trend is likely to continue. he joined our new show bloomberg crypto. >> let's say the dollar might never be the same. i think the biggest thing that's happened in the last 10 years and lots of ways, maybe longer, is when the europe and the u.s. said russia, those reserves you thought were euros, they are not really yours. what does that mean? it means the dollar or treasuries as a risk-free asset is not so risk-free. if you are chinese, it might not be risk-free. i think we are entering into a world that is unknown, where people are going to struggle to figure out what is the reserve currency? the u.s. isn't going away.

you're going to see this hodgepodge of assets. goals, digital assets are part of that bucket. the whole world is not going to flip to bitcoin overnight, but you are going to see more people say, i want to have my money outside of sovereigns. >> how do you deal with that today? people are talking about the problem with cryptocurrency is you can use it to circumvent, on the other hand, people are saying that is the point. we don't want censorship. >> let's talk big and small. there is zero chance the russian government can use cryptocurrencies to circumvent. we are regulated by 25 different agencies, galaxy. i am sure ftx and the others have just as many. almost all of crypto moves through exchanges, those exchanges have processes.

bitcoin is a public blockchain. we did a study on bitcoin, a 10 weeks exhaustive study with the security agencies, crypto companies. his thesis was if you are going to design a trap to catch criminals, it would look like the bitcoin blockchain. it's wrong if you think you can use bitcoin to escape sanctions. the russian ruble has depreciated. bitcoin is a lifetime to people -- lifeline to people with poor stewardship in their economy. we should be thrilled russians can get some money in bitcoin. >> that brings me to the

question of what they use cases. in the context we are talking about it, a replacement for fiat currency. is that what you view the future is? >> digital assets is a big word. i think bitcoin has this beautiful lane of being digital gold. everyone has a human right to have the fruits of their labor stored somewhere. if you don't trust your governments currency, traditionally rebutted in diamonds, gold. this is a digital version of that. i think that is the use case. there are stable coins, digital dollars, there are digital networks. and fts. the revolution is not just in one lane. i think for bitcoin it's a place to store value. shery: that was the head of galaxy digital. you can catch our weekly room --

bloomberg crypto show tuesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern cohosted by matt miller, where they cover the people, transactions and technology shaping the world of decentralized finance. next, the softbank founder lost a $25 billion in the last year. we will tell you why. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: we have breaking news out of japan. the february export numbers rising 19.1% year on year, slightly lower than the estimate of growth of 20.6%, but still, it's a huge jump from the previous month where we saw single-digit growth and export numbers. imports, gaining 34.4%, this is higher than estimates. we continue to see higher energy isis -- prices boosting imports, weaker european demand is weighing on exports, but still,

it's a big jump. this is leadinhe trade deficit to come in at 668.3 billion yen, which is a bigger trade deficit than what we had expected. we are seeing the adjusted number coming in at a much larger amount given this huge import bill. the japanese yen not doing much at the moment as it hangs around the five year low around the u.s. dollar, the primary driver for the fx space. the expected fed right kate, the boj staying -- expected fed rate hike, the boj staying pat. haidi: the softbank founder has seen his fortune crushed $20 billion. it comes as the stock has been

pummeled and loans keep ticking higher. our tokyo stocks reporter has more details on this. why are we seeing this shrinking wealth? obviously, he had a challenging few years. reporter: like you said, the market has been in a challenging situation, and if you look at how bad the selloff, especially asia technology shares has been this week, this is all contributing to the thinking wealth -- shrinking wealth. because of the sharp declines in technology shares you are seeing across asia, especially china, including alibaba, the asset values of softbank is shrinking very fast and leading to this shrinking -- shery: this is been a wild ride.

with doesn't mean for the outlook? reporter: it's a wild ride. let's alarming about this is the selloff in technology shares means it's a direct hit softbank, and the net asset value which is a key performance metric is shrinking fast because of the selloff. given how softbank has been collateralize and get stake to borrow money for more investments, people are worried about the risk for potential margin calls. there is not enough clarity which is adding to uncertainty according to investors. this anxiety is likely to persist given the outlook. shery: our tokyo stocks reporter. here's a quick check at the latest business flash headlines.

and group has sold its stake to comply with the man's chinese regulators. it's the latest asset disposal for the fintech giant as it seeks to appease authorities over concerns of influence. bloomberg data shows ant held about 18% of the company. intel has pledged to invest a most $19 billion to build a cutting edge semiconductor plant in germany. it marks the beginning of europe's ambitious attempt to learn chipmakers back to the region. the announcement comes as part of pat gelsinger's bid to reverse losses by developing the latest technology, including chips smaller than two nanometers. haidi: these are some of the stocks are watching -- we are watching. toyota says it is suspending weekday operations from march 22

through to the end of the month. an equipment seller reporting operating income that beat estimates, also watching korean carmakers after the industry raised concerns about the purchases of engine cars. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: our top stories this hour. asian stocks may get a boost, investors wait for the fed meeting. ukraine and russia set to resume talks as kyiv calls negotiations difficult.

president biden will travel to europe. markets are in focus after the rally in u.s. stocks and return of big buyers. shery: perhaps that is what leading to this. gains we are seeing in japan and south korea, the nikkei led higher by health care, communication stocks. the energy sector is the only sector losing ground given we continue to see oil declining in the session. the japanese yen holding at a five-year low, and of course the boj decision later this week, february export numbers coming in a little bit lower than expectations, 19.1%. south korea seeing a rally, reversing three sessions of losses while the korean won is gaining ground from its two-year low against the u.s. dollar, this as we have february jobless rate numbers coming in lower

than expectations at 2.7%. haidi: this is what we are seeing when it comes to some modest gains in australia, we are seeing tech stocks as well as consumer names, as well as health care doing quite well. we are seeing big jumps. we are also watching rare earth miners as well, with scott morrison set to announce funding for rare-earth to compete with the china dominance. we are seeing in new zealand, upside of about half a percent, the news there has been the announcement of the pathway reopening. s&p futures, seeing a little bit downside when it comes to the 10 year going into the fomc

meeting. new york crude is coming under more pressure, up by 1%. we have gold, some positive price moves well below the $2000 an ounce level. let's get to more markets. we are joined by a strategist. let's start with the fed, that is the big event to watch this week. to what extent has the market already priced in these expectations? guest: the market is convinced the fed is going to do a series of rate hikes. as many as seven consecutive hikes price into the market, and the first 25 basis points is on the way. then, a whole series to follow. traders are thinking the fed is in a similar situation to the ecb, going to prioritize about -- inflation above all else. no doubt, the fed will speak about the potential disruptions

and ukraine, and may talk about how that will bring recession risks a bit higher, but their objective, main goal in the near term is to do something about dampening inflation, which is why any forecast they have previously made is their objective. that is their objective, they will enunciate that later today. jerome powell may say he is still open to the idea of the idea of 50 basis points hikes should they need to in the months ahead. shery: those numbers, ppi today. we saw that big jump, two thirds of that ppi jump came from gasoline prices. we are now seeing oil reversing course. what does that due to the asian markets? -- do to the asian markets? guest: it's reverse course, and people are interested in a -- in

the average price. we are well down from the $130 a barrel we saw recently, the way that it's working out, when you have oil trading in the $90 range, that means the average price for people that need to import oil is much higher than they probably forecasted at the beginning of this year. the dynamics have changed dramatically in terms of the outlook. that has to be factored into the inflation story, and that is probably why the european central bank was a bit more hawkish than expected. no doubt the fed will take into account as well. just because oil has come down a few dollars when the war is continuing means the underlying fee for oil will be pretty high. you have a premium of $20 to $25 embedded in the oil price as long as the disruptions are expected to continue. shery: as mark mentioned, the

price of oil being sustained by the ongoing war in ukraine, concerns about the price disruptions. our next guest says while asian valuations appear compelling, it's the geopolitical event that continues to dictate a prudent stance. joining us now is the head of aipac equity research, good to have you with us. what does prudence look like when we are talking about asset allocations across asia? guest: the top thing is asian markets are in the emerging-market bucket. we have japan, australia. those are developed markets, but for the bulk of the economies in asia, they are bundled into e.m.. from that perspective, china is the single biggest market, but other markets that coexist. india, russia.

putting that number into a more comfortable democratic style of government, because of china, ideology is more proximate to russia, physically connected to russia, and other investors are putting china into that same higher risk basket and putting that number to work elsewhere. shery: that narrative of the ambitious growth target, we will continue to see more support coming from beijing? guest: i believe so. we have seen recent precedent of the national team getting involved in the stock market when he gets to dangerously low levels. this china care about investors?

probably not. the economy is becoming more distant from the west. actually, the stock market itself in terms of revenue is less detached than it has been historically. the equity market is bulk of it held by private investors, and to have social cohesion which is important for the chinese government, having a stock market is important, not just from a buyer perspective, but keeping social cohesion at home. i think there will be a time where the national team does get involved and there has to be president of this not just in china but other markets as well. be mindful in japan, the bank of japan is doing the same thing as

the swiss national bank. this could happen again. haidi: all of this is building a picture that yes, maybe chinese domestic equity stocks is a natural hedge when there is uncertainty and volatility outside of china, for those reasons. guest: risk diversification is important. we look at msci, 70% is u.s.. within the u.s. equity market and concentrated universe, where the big ten names or something like 40% of equity markets, so if you go back to history, the 1980's when japan got to 45% of msci world back in 1989, that was the signal for investors to diversify. if you look at the global economy, if you look at china with 18% of the world economy in less than 3% of the stock market, if i were someone with

responsibility for a global equity portfolio, i would be tempted to spread risk in asia. haidi: you said there are safety trades to be found in commodity net exporters, energy net exporters. how much of a risk is posed by an aggressive fomc? guest: i think with the fomc, ultimately there are two things that determine equity valuations. rates and the equity risk premium. with this volatility we have seen in the past few days, it's really driven by conflict. driven by ukraine. investors hate uncertainty, and what we are seeing with the ukraine conflict, equity was premium. the idea that rates are going up, that was known. we have had lose money for several years. my thinking is going into the corridors coming up towards the end of this year, i think the

markets going to focus on the equity risk premium, and that is investors' appetite for risk and ability to deal with conflict. shery: really great to have your thoughts. haidi: the joint head of aipac equity research. toyota said it is suspending weekday operations in japan from march 22 through the 31st. we are also looking at the office equipment seller reporting operating income for the third quarter, that beat estimates. also keeping an eye when it comes to korean carmakers, korea's automobile industry raising concerns about the president-elect's plan to ban of internal combustion cars by 2035. let's get you to vonnie quinn. vonnie: thank you. the prime ministers of poland, czech republic and slovenia have

traveled to kyiv. the first such delegation since russia launched its invasion almost three weeks ago. it was core data by the european union in which is set to announce a support package. saudi arabia is said to be and talk to price some oil sales to china and iran, dow jones reports discussions in beijing have been on and off or six years, but have accelerated recently. currency strategists say saudi arabia appears to be sending a political message to washington, but the dollars dominance is not under threat. iran is reviving efforts to explore liquefied natural gas. the state run oil company has invited investors to submit proposals to construct infrastructure, with haram looking to tap reserves. the push comes as europe tries to cut reliance on russian energy and role towers negotiate sanctions relief.

the shanghai government wants companies and its main commercial district to allow staff to work from home to stop the spread of covid. however, another district authority is ruling out the immediate need for a full lockdown. shanghai reported 105 new cases tuesday compared to two at the start of the month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, daniel hynes says commodity prices are being driven by headlines and big ones. we will talk oil and nickel. before that, the fed's decision day is a must upon us with expectations of a 25 basis points hike. bloomberg intelligence says some members 150. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: the federal reserve is expected to kickoff its 2023 inflation fight with a 25 rate hike. this diverges between what we are expected from the fed and the boj. we continue to see the yen around a five year low despite the fact we do have geopolitical tensions and ukraine with the ongoing war, leading to that risk off sentiment around the world. the japanese not reacting. take a look at u.s. futures, under pressure.

it was a rather calm session, a weak manufacturing number, easing fears about more aggressive fed tightening. european futures at the open seeing a little upside, we have seen european stocks falling on tuesday, renewing worries about the war in ukraine, investors caution given the federal reserve meeting. we are seeing the russian etf that is expected to halt trading in japan next week under pressure. haidi: let's get a quick check of the headlines. sources say citadel securities and sculptor r among investors facing a potential default on russian tech firms bonds. they are in talks for a restructuring of $1.5 billion worth of debt as international sanctions on russia make it difficult to repay.

u.s. shares have been suspended for more than five days. amazon has one unconditional support from the european union for its plan to buy a movie company for a $.45 billion. the deal comes as amazon faces increasing pressure to acquire more programming, it also makes for a debt that the nearly century-old hollywood icon can create demand for streaming content. intel has pledged to invest almost $19 billion to build a cutting edge semiconductor company. it marks the beginning of europe's attempt to lower global chipmakers back to the region. the announcement comes -- shery: we are focused on what the fed will do as it kicks off its 2020 inflation fight, the big question is, how ingressive that battle will be.

kathleen hays is here with the preview. markets right now are expecting a 25 basis point hike, but some thinking it could be larger. kathleen: betting it won't be, but some think it might be. the consumer price index coming in at the highest since 1990 on top of the cpi which saw its biggest increase, biggest annual increase for about 40 years. at this point, bloomberg economics, one argument they are making is when the markets are pricing in seven hikes, one at every meeting. what we are going to get a sense of from the policy statement, the dot plot, just how worried are they that inflation? why am i showing you expectations? this is what the fed is worried about. the longer inflation stays high, the more risk you have that

expectations become embedded and inflation becomes embedded. but they are saying is, there is a sense from the fed that they see inflation coming back down in the next year or so, if inflations are anchored, you will probably get five rate hike this year, maybe six. but, if they are unanchored, that could support this seven hikes, and that is what the dots reflect. how worried are they about inflation, we will see that. it's also interesting that they have pointed out that even though 25 basis points are priced in, built the president of the st. louis fed, a fed board governor, had argued for 50 basis points. that is why bloomberg is saying we could see some dissent. haidi: raskin withdrawing her name to be the next fed vice chair.

we have been following the story. kathleen: joe manchin is the democrat of the past year or two from west virginia who has been the tiebreaker. when you have a senate divided 50-50, any single democrat could squash a key move. president biden has five nominees. democrats. is would be great, republicans are worried she is too much of a public an avid supporter of climate change when you look at the balance sheet and look at risk that is there, and the implication is, republicans think that could determine how they allocate capital. when joe manchin got on board yesterday, sarah raskin realized this was not going to go through, she said she is withdrawing her nomination to take this position and now jay

powell can go ahead, the senate can confirm two other board nominees and the fed can go on with this business, but still wondering who the next vice chair will be. haidi: kathleen hays with the latest. lots more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: president biden is set to announce more than $1 billion for ukraine, the wall street journal reported as moscow and keep our set to resume talks on wednesday. let's talk about the prospect for another round of talks. reporter: we have heard

different assessments of the progress. putin will give some glimmer of hope and then say ukraine is not doing enough. ukraine saying they see some room for compromise. it's not clear what that will look like. at the same time these talks are going on, russia continues to say the military operation is going as scheduled and will be completed on time. until we see a deal, it's hard to know how much progress they're making. shery: we are expecting president zelensky to address congress. japanese media saying he will also address japan's parliament. reporter: we are seeing the ukraine president ramp-up to diplomacy for european leaders to travel to the capital, showing ukraine is in -- you can

expect statements coming out of the u.s. key providing support to ukraine in this fight. haidi: president biden is expected to speak more on wednesday. what do we know so far about the elements being pledge here? reporter: we so congress passed upwards of $14 billion, it seems like every day there is a new round of sanctions to try and weaken the russian economy. we will hear more about that. energy supplies to europe are another big part of this. had you hit russia without

hurting european countries, and then ongoing military support, how much can you provide ukraine without dragging nato into the war, particularly when russia has said nato military aid is a legitimate target. shery: quickly, any more clarity on china support? reporter: we have seen china shifting its position, at least trying to distance itself as domestic costs rise. china's envoy wrote an op-ed with the clearest denial yet the china had any advanced knowledge of the war and invasion. shery: our asian managing editor. as we keep an eye on the currency space, the japanese at a five-year low against the u.s. dollar. the kiwi under a little bit of pressure. we will be back with plenty more on daybreak asia.

this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: russia and ukraine --

the white house did not confirm if biden has plans to meet with zelensky. sue raskin has pulled her nomination to be the vice chair of the federal reserve. her chances evaporated after joe manchin announced he would not support her. she wrote that she was criticized for her views on climate change and the associated costs. mike nova grant says bitcoin is going to continue to trade at elevated rates. the founder and ceo of galaxy digital forecasted -- in an excessive interview,

>> elizabeth warren just wrong. bitcoin is a lifeline to people with people that have poor stewardship's and their economy, and we should be thrilled that russians could get some of their money. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: let's take a look at how we are tracking and the asian session. again is sitting test again is sitting at the lowest against the dollar in five years -- looking at the potential for a

messaging shift from the bank of japan if we see further weakness. when it comes to the equity front, some big gains across the board. tracking the nikkei, we are seeing that leadership when it comes to a lot of discretionary. before we get a closer look at energy, big uptick in towards related stocks. this is the picture when it comes to brent crude trading lower as well. chinese demand in focus. shery: we are seeing a continued pullback in oil futures, and also bracing ourselves for nickel trading to resume in london.

this of course -- >> we are seeing it move lower. some analysts are calling this a round-trip, because we shot to multiyear highs last week, we are now more than 20% below that, and analysts on a fundamental and technical basis believe it to be below the 200 day moving average. it has been a tumultuous week. let's go to west texas intermediate, which closed below $97 in the u.s. session, fell below $96 and even met $95 in the asian session, but it is

right now at about $96 and change. we saw brent go below $100. traders are seeing a couple of things. the fundamentals, they see a going back to the 200 day moving average. we have seen that iran nuclear talks resume, the intensifying lockdowns and china raising a consumption question, a demand westin. -- question. traders say there have been a lot of noise, we have seen rising and falling. in the tuesday session, we had putin, effectively making it

more expensive to trade, less players in the market that only adds to the volatility. bottlenecks couple of days. -- volatile next couple of days. shery: nickel is set to restart nickel trading. what are we expecting? su: this could be a session for the history books. a metals tycoon in china, the big shot. he said last week to pay massive market calls when it shot up 250% and a little more than 20 for hours. take a look at how big of a move that was. the lme made a controversial decision to erase many of the trades on that day. it reopens at 8:00 a.m. in the

london exchange, the limit down is about 5%. many are expecting it to be a move lower. the lme put in a lot more curbs, they are saying they expect an orderly session. you had a group of banks led by j.p. morgan that reached a standstill and they will not have to pay any margin calls. they don't want a repeat of what happened march 8. many are buckling up for a wild trading day when the exchange opens. haidi: su keenan there. our next guest says the sentiment in commodity markets remains driven by news headlines, joining us now from sydney is down. great to have a with us as always. how do you separate medium-term

fundamentals, the whiplash we are seeing from these headlines driven moves? guest: it's difficult to separate them at the moment. from a fundamental point of view , we are expecting to see disruptions increase, data suggests they are at the start of that line. the global picture, as you highlighted, markets feel like

they are pricing in a little disruption to oil and gas markets at the moment. if that peters out, if we start to see restrictions come through, we will be in for a pretty big roller coaster ride. haidi: where are you starting to see equilibrium? you can see the focus switching, the prices trying to keep up with the news flow. are there certain asset classes where you are starting to see fair value, if we can call it that? guest: some of the markets that have not had both the supply risk premium built into the price, you can look at nickel

and aluminum which russia has a large share in the global output. those prices have not moved as much, and we are starting to see them stabilize as well. that points to a fairly happy equilibrium. that mid february pricing level was pretty indicative of where markets were at that point in time. that could be something to look out for. shery: what are you expecting to see with nickel trading? guest: there would be limits in the move, so i expected to see

as big of a fall as we had rising last week. pressure is on the downside, happy equilibrium between buyers and sellers. a lot of the investment community sitting on the sidelines. that, i think will make one of those volatile metals even more so. shery: as lockdowns continue, what are the commodities that we will see most impacted? guest: metals exposed to

construction, we would see some downside. we have already heard of construction activity in several regions being impacted. it's an important tech code. seeing prices way down as supply-side issues, fears of supply shocks. further downside over the next few days or weeks really on the metal side, considering their exposure to china. shery: always good having your thoughts. a big player in the india steel sector tells us how russia's invasion will impact his business.

he joins us at 11:40 hong kong time. ♪ haidi: singapore says school lessons will move online as the pandemic reshaped learning. hear from our exclusive conversation with the education minister at the assam business summit. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: japan says north korea may have filed a ballistic missile. this comes as we have seen increasing tit-for-tat, just a couple of weeks ago, north korea launching a projectile. this would be i believe the nighttime this year for north korea to launch that missile. we are watching to see if this is an icbm and would signal a

complete listing on the moratorium that the u.s. and north korea had reached agreement on a few years ago. we continue to watch the developments out of that, but according for nhk. singapore is saying more education will be moved online. the education minister spoke exclusively to us and explain how technology will accelerate the pace and reach of quality education. >> there are many things we want to do faster and better. the first example would be the blended learning model. we will have more classes online and have our students have the skill set. going forward, we expect more

and more times will be spent on collaboration and targeting creativity. taking lessons from covid, we will move lessons online, allowing our students to pick up skills to learn. [indiscernible] with technology, you can now use the lessons for classrooms across the nation as fast as you can. that is something we really want to do more. >> if you take a look at uneven internet access, how do you think this might play out? it's estimated 38 million children worldwide do not have access to schooling.

how might this play out for the world? what does it mean for the most honorable in asia? -- vulnerable in asia? >> it could be -- we have seen countries larger than singapore able to scale up for good quality education through internet connectivity. i think it poses a tremendous opportunity, if we can focus our resources on equipping our people with devices, transforming the classroom into the digital classroom. to change the technology and get the student engaged. i think there is a tremendous opportunity. haslinda: given the skill sets that are required, there needs to be a rethinking of education. retraining, resilience.

how do you think -- what do you think the future of learning looks like? >> and singapore, we will go from moe -- our job of educating and training our people -- we need new programs, new technologies. the other change we need to make is this. go back to school i think is not the correct concept. it is difficult for adults to go back to school. anyone can learn anything, anywhere. shery: the singapore education

minister speaking to haslinda. you can see the full conversation of the summit which begins at 3:00 p.m. hong kong time, viewers can join virtually by registering at bloomberg live.com. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: china's covid lockdowns are adding to the china stock selloff, revising a debate over the market future attractiveness for investors and whether that matters. let's bring in our opinion columnist. here in the u.s., every time we have a huge market selloff, we talk about the federal reserve puts. is there such a thing for chinese markets? to beijing policymakers care? reporter: there is probably no xi put. he never talks about the stock market. i think it's silly to even ask.

i simply don't think he cares. china's regulators believe that the hong kong market is not necessarily broken. the last couple of days, despite the selloff, -- that has not halted the decline, but there is investment demand out there. haidi: as he moves to the third term, what this he care about? -- what does he care about? reporter: livelihood instability. -- and stability. after the russian invasion into ukraine, he addressed the nation about china's potential food and energy crisis, because china is

a huge importer of agricultural and energy products. xi is willing to make policy changes. he is known to be a tree hugger, he cares about carbon neutrality. recently, he stepped back and said we have to take a realistic approach to carbon goals. he is basically encouraging coal production to buffer the oil price shock. i think as long as the real economy is ok, middle-class, the majority of chinese support, he's not going to care about the stock market at all. haidi: chinese stocks may stabilize at the open after the golden dragon index gained almost 5%. let's bring in david ingles to

take a look at the market opens. with the did buying emerging, were probably see a rebound. are you brave enough to say this will be sustained? david: are you brave enough to stay until the close? we will get the technicals. it does seem given the price action where seeing across asia, massive amounts of net buying coming through the south, highest levels since may, 22 anyone. you are seeing the by the did. the market is oversold. more so in hong kong, although price action was quite bad yesterday on the mainland. the 14 day relevant strength index on the hang seng is now all the way back to the levels of the mid-1980's. we will leave it there. back to you.

ery: looking forward to your show, david ingles joining us from hong kong. he will have the market opens at the start of trade in shanghai, hong kong, and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open". as we count down to the fed decision, equities getting a boost. we will see whether they step into chinese shares. oil and focus, ukraine