dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: china is set to stop the pledges to back overseas investing. the hang seng index adjusting the most ever. the war in ukraine rages. president zelensky will address

the u.s. congress today and biden travels to europe next week. bracing for fed today. treasuries and dollars trade. they prepare for the biggest rate hike since 2018. china stepped in to support the markets to deliver confidence just as the federal reserve steps in to hike rates. a diversions of policy. dani: it has come after a huge loss in chinese stocks. three words coming from the meeting today. standardized, transparent, and predictable. they want to support the property market, the tech market, and chinese listings overseas. manus: let's bring in a juliette saly who was watching these moves across the market. some of the biggest moves ever on record. jules will join us very shortly

on some of the moves let's put some of them in context. that is really the hang seng tech index. we will get to jules in just a second. dani: there she is in the distance. what are you looking at with these big moves? juliette: absolutely. just looking at these instances. we are already seeing the hang seng tech index down by 17%. it has been down some 16% from its february 2021 peak. really giving a lot of support to not only the tech players but a range of sectors in this market that have been bearing down. we are certainly seeing huge moves on the back of that. is this the end of the

regulatory crackdown on china tech? we can see investors in the market leave the market and china also to adopt effective policies to develop this huge jump coming through in property plays as well. the yuan gains in the hang seng index jumps the most since october of 2000 hpo you see the china enterprise -- since october of 2008. you see the china enterprise jumping. tencent is up by some 19%. state media showing that we had these reports coming through that there would be an upside to asia earlier today and you get these big headlines coming through from xinhua that will take more drilling into these moves on the terminal. it is the biggest intervention since 2015 but a lot can turn

these markets around. the hang seng index moving up. manus: when it comes to the intervention, you are absolutely right. let's bring the team together around top stories. we have enda curran, maria tadeo, and aggi cantrill. dani: let's kick it off with the fed because they are set to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018. with a 25 basis point rate hike already phased in, investors will be watching for what else comes from the policy meeting. for more, and occurrence joins us now. we expect 25 basis points. what else should we be listening for from the fomc? enda: it is all about the dot

plot. we know they are going to go 25 basis points, but how aggressive will it be signaling further rate hikes? in the face of the remarkable commodities surge in the russia ukraine crisis, what will this mean for economic spillover from that conflict? the 25 basis points are as expected but there will be a lot of questions that investors are hoping for clarity on. manus: thank you very much. we will see you through the morning. that is our chief asia economics correspondent. let's move the story forward. the political story.

president biden will travel to brussels next week to meet with nato allies and take part in a summative eu leaders. that comes as nato defenses are's -- are due to meet today to discuss the crisis. what are the lines they need to be aware of? maria, what can we expect on the agenda from the nato ministers? maria: a lot on the agenda. this is now day tony one of the ukraine war and the fighting continues -- day 21 of the ukraine war and the fighting continues. they are trying to prevent the spillover from ukraine into eastern europe. there will be conversations of deploying even more troops to the eastern flank. these are the baltic nations which feel jittery. they perceive increasingly aggressive russia. the other big point is the preview that president biden

will be attending nato next thursday. he is also meeting with european leaders in brussels. a lot of this has to do with sending a political message to the nato partners. the united states has said that article five of nato as a sacred obligation and we are going to defend every inch of our nato territory. dani: at the same time, zelensky is set to appear before congress today. he will plead for more aid. what exactly is he asking for? we already had congress passed some funding for ukraine. what else does the ukrainian president want? maria: he wants supply of humanitarian aid but also weapons. ukrainians say, we get it, we are not going to see nato troops in ukraine. we are going to have to fight this for ourselves, but for that same reason, we need more weapons. a lot of this hinges about, what

do you do with the fighter jets? so far this exchange what -- with fighter jets with the polish has not come through. up until yesterday night, the u.s. has still said there is a real risk of escalation if we shut the skies. that means potentially a conflict between nato and russia. to me, we are still -- what is still interesting are the comments around nato. the ukrainians have had a major reality check yesterday and it was clear in the read between the lines that they are not going to be entering nato or they are not going to be joining anytime soon. salon ski center varied appointment -- disappointed -- zelensky sounded very disappointed. we need a different security package with the western allies and we have made it clear that we need security guarantees.

if it comes to cease guarding and this is still keeping we are still waiting for the cease-fire and the terms around cease fire. dani: thank you very much. sticking with the story and to show support for ukraine, the prime minister's of poland, czechoslovakia, and romania, visited the capital of ukraine. aggi, what was the significance of this visit? aggi: they are here to show solidarity with ukraine. this is something that is happening. you are seeing a lot of world leaders had to kyiv and show that they are standing with zelensky and this country. this is more significant. this is 21 days into a severe conflict with another country. three european leaders went

there with the clear intention of expressing a showing of support not just for zelensky's government but the ukrainian people. they are sending this message not just from poland, slovenia, and romania, but the eu as a whole. manus: thank you very much. dani, as we have been saying this is up pretty to mulch was moment. are we seeing from the chinese as someone set on the chat from the team, is this a moment for the chinese to do whatever it takes? i think you have got the sum up of the language. dani: in terms of tech, they say they want to implement standardized, transparent, and predictable regulation. it is all of the concerns you might have. it is keeping the markets stable, the tech property and

overseas. here is your luck at cross equity markets. all of them on the highs of this china news. manus: this is breaking not just in the dax futures, which is more tech heavy, but also the nasdaq. roll it over to the gmm and you begin to understand the effect across the asset classes. i want you to focus on the commodities side, which is iron ore exploding by over nine point 8%. steel up 9.2%. this is about a small lifting of restrictions in terms of those. this is about the accelerator affect. the biggest one-day gain ever on tencent. dani: should also mention foxconn also said they will resume limited output in shenzhen of iphones. the concern of covid was feeding into all of this. we will get more on the china

story and the broader risk asset story. we will be speaking with barclays cio william hobbs. those are the conversations we will have next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe." there is a move in the equity markets in china from the hang seng tech. state intervention is official. it is about providing stability, about val to keep things steady in the equity markets. it is about pledging support for

overseas stock listings as well. dani: you see their h.s. tech jumping the most since it was created in 2015. let's get straight to our guest, it is william hobbs, chief investment officer at barclays. what a time for you to be joining us. we're looking at tech stocks in hong kong. what do you do with equities in china right now? william: it is an interesting point. can equities -- china equities at the moment are interesting. the big question with china was the one being asked last year, which is can china find a new growth model? that is unlikely to be able to take them any further. they need to find the tech stocks and the key to this is innovation, finding domestic sources and pushing onto that stage of development because that last development model has

ran the road. they have got on -- a complicated road ahead. this is a jump that very few economies have managed in the postwar era. there would be interesting to watch. this policy measure is stanching the short term rather than the longer-term trajectory. manus: some of that stanching the short-term raft, jp morgan says that the path for chinese tech is on investable. does that change the narrative for chinese tech? does that put it lower for the chinese tech for you? i know you are at an advantage and you get to read the details. how do you look at china? william: the big story today is really about interest rates. we are seeing across the world

that central banks are going to start to put interest rates to less negative territory. the big technology companies, even if the intervention is weaker, long-duration cash flow like the ones in the tech sector provides, that they are more vulnerable in valuation terms real rising interest rates. that is something to factor in, but certainly that chinese tech has to be part of the investment portfolio. we are not going to make a technical call on that right now. that is more brave than i and capable of being. dani: that is fair enough. [laughter] when it comes to the -- what would give you more confidence and let you keep your hair in terms of china? what are you looking for to save the future growth pictures in china is ok?

ubs today downgraded the china outlook. this is before the measures were put in place. china says they are focused in loan growth, proactive in the economy, but what are you looking more say that china can navigate the shift? william: this is a complicated question. one of the interesting points from economic history is how china in the medieval. -- in the medieval period was a technological hub at the time and then at some point there was a huge gap between europe and china. one of the stories was about making the complication of ideas in the economies, and that is something that many people are lacking in the chinese economy at the moment. the difficulty to capture the eccentric move of the market.

i think that freedom of comparative ideas, that has been a sufficiently suckled state. that has been historically the trick to not just manage one productivity paradigm, but doing it repeatedly. that is the trick that the west has managed and others have yet to replicate in a sufficiently consistent way. manus: the one theme we are grappling with is this state of parabolic schism within commodities. it is ironic. i cannot get it around in my head, but it is. iron ore is up another 10% this morning, copper is up 1%. does that endure or are we going to find some kind of relief here? the hedge funds seem to have fit

finished with their pillage for now in come already markets. -- commodity markets. william: i think this is a sector that is incredibly difficult, as we have seen over the last months to tackle the key cord and make money on that basis, but from a strategic argument, are trying to make money out of a risk premium associated with commodities. the point for us about having commodities back in 2021 was when we look at the range of potential futures ahead, there were commodities diversification, protection from inflation to us perspective. there seemed to be more futures ahead, whether it was more problematic inflation than their work bringers to 2021. and you look at what is going on in ukraine, the policymaker response.

more inflation or what risk of inflation still seems to be something that should concern investors. therefore commodities has a strong portfolio. we are sticking with it at the moment. manus: we are going to dig into the inflation narrative in just a moment because it is part of the powell conversation. our guest this morning rolling with the punches, the chief investment officer of barclays. let's get the first word headlines. juliette: boris johnson is set to meet with the ruler of the uae and the saudi crown prince today. he talks with the opec members about raising some of the output. it is reported that saudi arabia has their talks with china about your end priced talk for some. -- about yuan price talk for

some. australia will be allowed to enter without needing to isolate from april 12, and visitors from the u.s., u.k., and japan will be allowed starting april 1. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani. dani: thanks very much. that is juliette saly in singapore. coming up, we will continue the conversation with william hobbs. we turn to the fed and inflationary outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

we have been talking about china this morning intervening in the stock market, property market, and the economy across equities. looking in the west, we are looking at futures market at their highs for the day. i will draw your attention to the nasdaq futures, up nearly 1%. that is the height for the future section. manus: at has already entered a bear market on the nasdaq and the dollar index. the fed is here and it is fed day. the fed raises rates for the first time since 2018. what will powell say to the market? william hobbs is that chief investment officer at barclays. as we go into this, inflation is at 10% but the breakevens, this is the challenge. how hawkish a hike do you expect or am i being presumptive? william: that is a good

question. we obviously don't know. the tendency now has gone out of the markets to look for more commentary about the 50 basis point hike. we have a brief fluctuation with that idea. the expectation is that the first half of the year is not going to give us too much information. a lot of the question marks is about where it ends? the market is still consistently expecting that real rates aren't going to make it into positive territory. that is the assumption is in the context of what we are seeing for inflation. one of the things about the u.s. economy at the moment is you have giant forces at work. the fiscal cliff is at four percentage points. you have giant savings calls on the other hand, you have covid, consumer sentiment bizarrely low for the situation, so there are

giant forces pushing on the economy, but the labor market is smoking hot. that suggests they are right to get going. what they will find over the next few months is whether they are behind how far they are. dani: really quickly, with the consumer sentiment so low, they constantly argue that this is the precursor for recession. are you seeing that word slip into your conversations as well? william: we are, and over the last months, you have seen the markets having mixed signals on this. the recession probability is around one third for this year, credit markets are less confident on that front. we think the u.s. economy has sufficient momentum. you are adding an average of 600,000 workers to your economy every month and that is a real momentum. there are risks of recession but

it is not too strong at the moment. dani: thank you very much for joining us this morning. that is william hobbs, chief investment officer at barclays rolling with the punches. rollin- [announcer] imagine we tahaving fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny with dani burger in london. dani: china steps in to support stocks and bring back overseas listings. the hang seng tech index jumped the most since its creation. the war in ukraine rages. resident zelensky will address the u.s. congress today.

bracing for fed day. the treasury and the dollar are little changed as markets prepare for the first rate hike since 2018. china stepping in to support not just tech stocks in the stock market, but property stocks and the economy as well. a huge turnaround in the index as hs tech is up more than 18%, on track for their best year since 2008. manus: and this is about delivering standardized, transparent, and predictable futures for a whole variety of sectors. you're looking at the tech sector. the stability and to resolve the property risks we have seen. you are looking at some of the biggest one-day moves ever. tencent had the biggest one-day move ever.

alibaba, this is one of the biggest moves since it was listed. you are seeing this real raise of -- we will ask investors throughout the morning, is this a draghi moment in china to do whatever to stabilize the market? the overflow in europe is palpable. dani: part of the reason why tech stocks in the u.s. yesterday, they rebounded but the day before had done poorly, is exactly this concern about overseas listings. you are seeing european stocks futures are up nearly 1.5%. you also have the dax looking stronger as well. nasdaq was up 0.9%. i should say it is not even just stocks. it is commodities and bonds also. the risk asset appetite -- the

risk appetite also picking up for that. manus: let's have a look at what is going on. the ripple effect at the moment that went higher in markets. a number of houses has warned about selling in these markets, but iron ore is exploding by 8%. barclays chief investment officer is along on commodities and he still wants to be long on commodities. you are seeing this overflow into china. there is a little bit of a sign of an easing of some of the restrictions of hospitalizations in china, the momentum at the moment we should say -- dani, what is your effect on the hang seng? dani: [laughter] ok, fault transparency this moment. i am going to quote david engel.

the hang seng indexes still two .2%. to get it back to where we were, we need to get up to 216%. manus: you are very honest. that is what i like. let's reset because we have got the oil markets to consider as well. the prime minister is coming here. the u.k. prime minister will speak to the leader of the uae and the saudi crown prince later today. the pressure on opec. opec is closed -- opec as opposed to opec+, which includes russia. paul wallace is with us. boris is coming with a big request. what's pressures? paul: this is a big chip for boris johnson. he is going to meet the two effective readers of the uae and

saudi arabia to try to change their minds than terms of oil production because so far they have very much been sticking to the opec line that they do not need to pump any faster than what they are doing at the moment. they are also very much saying for the public, they want to keep their alliance with russia. russia is in the opec+ group. if he is successful and we either uae and saudi arabia pumping more oil, that will be extreme victory for the oil markets. dani: part of the story when it comes to the oil markets and the war in ukraine, the threat of the dollar and using that as sanctions. there are reports that saudi arabia will consider accepting yuan payments of oil to china.

how much of a threat is this to the supremacy of the dollar? paul: this is very much part and parcel of the same story. saudi arabia has not made any decisions at the moment and there are a lot of people in the fx world are skeptical that it would accept your end as payment -- accept yuan as payment on a small-scale, but it would be significant if they were to do that. it is probably more a message to the americans than a sign of serious intention to accept the yuan for their oil shipments to china. it is essentially saying, you want us to pump more oil, but we want to see concessions too. there are other powers in the world that we can get closer to, china being the main one. it might be a way the say to the u.s., you need to reach out to

us and do a better job on the relations that what you are doing so far. manus: thanks very much. paul wallace with the latest on boris johnson's trip. the recent retreat is taking the leader this morning as the focus turns to demand of production. wide rises of brent and wti reaching $100 a barrel at one juncture last week, and it does not look like the volatility of inflation is setting down. let's bring in our next guest. fiona boal, head of commodities and real assets at s&p dow jones . china is vowing to stabilize markets and resolve property risk, and this is about stabilizing the commodity -- economy.

your first take for the commodity complex on china is do whatever it takes moment. good morning. fiona: good morning. they have really tried to hit it out of the park this morning to stimulate the economy, to do whatever it takes. in the past, that has always been positive when we have seen stimulus for the central commodities markets and the markets this morning are suggesting that they view it as a positive sign as well. we do still have some concerns about the growing covid cases and what even a short-term lockdown might mean. dani: fiona, let me get into that. are you confident that roast can resume in china -- growth can

resume in china on the qamar to complex if there is still a zero covid policy and if we see cases move significantly higher? fiona: it is too hard to know. the news flow when it comes to covid out of china is what you could call spotty. we are not sure if we get the full story. i would be watching for any metrics like lockdown numbers, cases, and to try to get an understanding of what it means to the average consumer. are we seeing less cars on the roads, for example? manus: one market which is going to prove interesting when we get going today, we are seeing the moves across the gmm markets, nickel. that is going to reopen. there are going to be certain breakers in there. how are the markets people you are talking to reacting to that?

let's kick it off there. fiona: you ask all the hard questions, manus. manus: you have all the good answers, fiona. fiona: we really don't know how the market is going to open this morning. what we know is that it is important for all commodity markets that we have functioning derivatives markets, that there are ways for players in the markets to hit their opportunities for speculators to be involved in those markets. the reopening of the market is a good sign. we will be watching closely to see what happens. a marker where there is troop price recovery is what we really want at the end of the day. dani: i have another question for you that is a bit of a head scratcher. yesterday, mcb, the

entertainment company, announced they will buy 2% of a gold company. what do you make of the strategy of this company that is buying into this marty's -- commodities space? fiona: i am not sure about the particular situation but we know that there are roles for commodities in investor portfolios. gold is an interesting one. it has taken a bit of a backseat over the past 12 months, a bit of a lagger which is interesting given the political risk premiums than the market. but we know that there are roles for commodities and commodities can be a great diversifier for portfolios. manus: we see huge volatility in

the oil markets. the hedge funds have reduced their stance of long positions quickly and aggressively. we are still at $100. your impression of the specs in that market and what is going to drive it next. i know the war is absolute. we turn on every headline, but when you go from $130 to $100, has that been washed down now? fiona: i think that is a fair assumption. we have seen liquidity in the oil market has dropped off. the interest in most of those markets is down to levels we have not seen since 2015 and the feet off spreads. that would signal to me that you might not have to be in the market and even though speculators are remaining the

markets, there are fully investors. the volatility is really the reason for that. when we have these geopolitical risks that create -- even in this commodities market that is used to uncertainty, we would expect to see deep moves and some players sitting on the sidelines. dani: super uncertainty. i feel like that is a good word for everything that is going on right now. thank you for joining us. that is fiona boal, head of commodities and real assets at s&p dow jones. let's get the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: ukraine's president has met with of the leaders of poland, and the czech republic in kyiv. they have traveled to the capitals and our show of solidarity.

president vladimir putin says he was not serious about resolving the conflict. ukraine has negotiated through a compromise. china denies they had prior knowledge of the invasion. amazon has approval from the european union for its plan -- $8.5 billion. this is increasing pressure to provide more programming in the comparative streaming market. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus. manus: thanks very much. we are just under 16 minutes away from the close. just a quick check on the hang seng tech index. we understand support is coming from government and stability is something they want to deliver on. if we roll over and look at the

gtv, this is how you understand the dynamics. we are down 68% before the intervention. what do we have to do? these are the three stocks that are doing the heavy lifting, alibaba, tencent, and meituan. dani: these are options for alibaba that is currently trading around $90. that is up 25%. it is really the most since the stock went public. we are going to dig more into that coming up. it is the surging equity story across hong kong. the china fever is spreading across the rest of the equity picture. more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny along with dani burger. the markets are fused by this underpinning of markets. we understand there will be intervention and stability. i think commodities are the top block there. iron ore roaring higher and steel. these commodities are lit up. dani: they are. we even had more selling in bonds. we also have an equity market on fire. hang seng tech index surging the most since it was created. let's dig more into this story. joining us now is bloomberg's sophia e costa. is this an all clear for markets? as everyone setting aside the tech regulation worries or is this a bounceback of how much

they have sold off the past few days? >> that is in us: -- that is an excellent question. one trader we spoke to this morning said that he was not wanting to buy in this market. now he says this is a market he doesn't want to sell. but look at the scale of the rally today. the hang seng tech index up 20% and alibaba up more than 30%. this is a very strong signal from the state council, this is china's highest policymaking body, and in one single meeting, policymakers addressed all of those concerns that are within beijing's control. it talks about pledging support for the stock market. that is the first time we hear that strong worded statement out of beijing. we have heard it mentioned by the state media but not by

policymakers. also saying that regulatory moves on big tech will be over soon. also saying that dialogue with u.s. regulators regarding adr is going well, and another one saying that policymakers will adopt measures to address risk stemming from what is happening to property developers. all of this from one meeting and one statement. we are looking at the selloff we had yesterday. the timing couldn't have been more important, especially with the fed expected to hike rates tonight. interesting timing indeed. manus: absolutely to underpin the markets. two regulators going in two different directions. thank you very much. our chief china correspondent on this intervention. we can't let a day passes in this show without mentioning the

russian interest payments to be made. russia will default if the dollar coupons are paid in rubles. i have spoken to lots of people about this intentional contagion of theirs. dani: that is part of the point of the figures. 117 million dollars in the grand scheme of russian debt is not that much, but if anything it is all historical outcome. if they do default to it, if they will pay in rubles, it will be the first time they default on foreign currency obligations. this was the post bolshevik revolution for debt clenching. manus: indeed. coming up on the show, nickel trading will reopen at 8:00 a.m. today. it is one of the most massive weeks for trading in history.

we have the story on bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london west manus cranny in dubai. ella meet trading of nickels and is such to reopen today at 8:00 a.m. london time. this plunged the entire market into chaos. the lme is -- this is based on the immense short squeeze we saw. we are joined by stephen. we do see in china the nickel futures are moving higher this morning. when we do get the lme markets opening up, what are most people

expecting? a move higher, a plunge? i don't know. >> spoiler alert, it is likely going to fall. we have spoken to analysts and traders, and 13 of them say it is going to fall. some have said it will rise and others say it will go in the middle. there is a new limit there is a 5% trading limit that didn't exist before last week. the nickel has risen 200% in two days early last week, so because of that they have put a 5% limit. when you talk to everybody, they are not 100% sure. there is going to be a lot of volatility and it could go either way. it depends on what the appetite is. the market should go down because that risk premium should be coming off of last week, but at the same time, we see an

enormous debt by the chinese nickel producer to look again at increasing their short position p they could be buying on nickel. it is going to be fireworks no matter what happens. manus: let's see where volatility takes us to in that market. stephen on the reopening of the nickel trading on the lme. a look at the real. the hang seng tech index ramping higher. hong kong shares and chinese stocks all romping home, hs tech up 20%. capital markets stabilize. stability, which is something they have lacked over the past 10, 15 days has been shuttering on the tech side. dani: tech stocks in hong kong still have over 50% to make up,

but we see the spectacular moves. china shares having the best moves since 2008. "bloomberg markets: europe" with anna edwards is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices

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anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets europe, i'm anna edwards live in london. the cash trade is less than an hour away. china steps in to support stocks and pledges to back overseas. the war in ukraine rages. president zelensky will address the u.s. congress today. president bryden travels to europe next week.