invasion. a white house official says president biden will unveil another military aid package for ukraine expected to include more antitank and antiaircraft missiles. moscow has asked the u.s. to stop weapons deliveries to kyiv. ukraine's military says russian forces continue to strike infrastructure targets. >> we need you right now. remember pearl harbor. terrible morning of december 7, 1941, when your sky was black from the planes attacking you. just remember it. remember september 11. mark: a kremlin spokesperson says a neutral ukraine with its own army could be a possible compromise in the current crisis, while kia said it needed firm security guarantees in any agreement. talks are set to be ongoing. a powerful 7.3 magnitude

earthquake struck off the coast of fukushima in northern japan, triggering a tsunami advisory and cutting power to more than 2 million homes in the tokyo area. the pacific tsunami warning area said there was no longer a tsunami threat, though the japan meteorological agency kept its low risk advisory in place. nhk says there were reports of fire and building damage, and a bullet train was said to have derailed. no official word yet on any injuries. south korea says north korea's latest missile tests appears to have failed. that comes days after a report that kim jong-un's regime was planning to fire its icbm in five years, its first icbm. the south's military says the missile is presumed to have failed shortly after launch. right now we will interrupt our programming and go to president biden. pres. biden: significant speech.

he speaks for a people who have shown remarkable courage and strength in the face of brutal aggression. courage and strength that has inspired not only ukrainians, that the entire world. putin is inflicting appalling, appalling devastation and horror on ukraine. bombing apartment buildings, maternity wards, hospitals. i mean, it is god awful. i was speaking with our commander behind me here, general milley. i mean, it just is amazing. as today we sell reports that russian forces were holding hundreds of doctors hostage in the largest hospital in mariupol. these atrocities are an outrage to the world. the world is united in our support for ukraine and our determination to make putin pay a very heavy price. america is leading this effort, together with our allies and

partners, providing enormous levels of security and humanitarian assistance that we are adding to today, and we are going to continue to do more in the days and weeks ahead. we are crippling putin's economy with crippling sanctions that is only going to grow more painful over time. the entire nato and eu behind us, and many other countries. what is at stake here are the principles the united states and united nations and across the world stand for. it is about freedom. it is about the right of people to determine their own future. it is about making sure ukraine will never be a victory for putin, the matter what advances he makes on the battlefield. the american people are answering president zelensky's call for more help, more weapons for ukraine to defend that -- defend itself. that is what we're doing. in fact, we started our systems to ukraine before this war began, as they started a new exercises along the ukrainian border.

the russians started in march of last year. we took the threat of putting invading very seriously. we acted on it. we sent ukraine morris security assistance last year, including antiaircraft vent, before the invasion. more than we had ever provided for. when the invasion began they already had the kinds of weapons they needed to counter russian advances. and once the war started we immediately rushed $350 million in additional aid to further address their needs. hundred of anti-air systems, thousands of antitank weapons, dozens of transport helicopters, armed patrol boats, and other high-mobility vehicles. radar systems that track unmanned drones. secure communications equipment and tactical gear. satellite imagery and analysis capacity. and it has clearly help ukraine inflict dramatic losses on russian forces. on saturday my administration

authorized another $200 million to keep a steady flow of weapons and ammunition moving to ukraine. nine months again, using my presidential authority to activate an additional security assistance to continue to help ukraine fend off russia's assault. an additional $800 million of assistance. that brings the total of new u.s. security assistance to ukraine to $1 billion just this week. these are direct transfers of equipment from our department of defense and the ukrainian military to help them as they fight against this invasion. i thank congress for appropriating these funds. this new package on its own is going to provide unprecedented assistance to ukraine. it includes 800 antiaircraft systems. to make sure the ukrainian military can continue to stop the planes and helicopters that have been attacking their people and defend the ukrainian airspace. at the request of residents on

ski we have identified and are helping ukraine acquire additional longer-range antiaircraft systems and the munitions for those systems. our new assistance package includes 9000 anti-armor systems. these are portable high accurate -- high accuracy shoulder-mounted missiles that the ukrainian forces have been using with great effect to destroy invading tanks and armored vehicles. it will include 7000 small arms -- shotguns, grenade launchers, to equip craniums. including the brave men who are defending their cities as civilians and around the countryside as well. as well as the ammunition and mortar rounds to go with small arms -- 20 million rounds in total. 20 million rounds. this will include drones, which mistreats our commitment to sending our most cutting edge

systems to ukraine for its defense. and we are not doing this alone. our allies and partners have stepped up to provide security assistance and will continue to facilitate these deliveries as well. the united states and our partners are fully committed to surging weapons assistance to the ukrainians. more will be coming as we source equipment that we are ready to transfer. now i want to be honest with you. this could be a long and difficult battle. but the american people will be steadfast in our support of the people of ukraine in the face of putin's unethical attacks on civilian populations. we are united in our abhorrence of putin's depraved onslaught and we will continue to have their backs as they fight for their survival. we are going to give ukraine the arms to fight and defend themselves through all the difficult days ahead. we are going to continue to mobilize humanitarian relief to

support people within ukraine, and those who have been forced to flee ukraine. in just the past few weeks we provided 300 million dollars of humanitarian assistance the people of ukraine and neighboring countries. tens of thousands of tons of food, water, medicine and other basic supplies to support the people in need. our experts on the ground in poland, in moldova, and other neighboring countries are there to make real-time assessments of the rapidly evolving crisis and get humanitarian supplies to the people in need, when they needed. we will support ukraine's economy with direct financial assistance as well. together with our allies and partners we will keep up the pressure on putin's crumbling economy, isolating him on the global stage. that is our goal. make putin pay the plant -- pay the price, we gaining his position while strengthening the hands of the ukrainians on the battlefield and at the

negotiating table. together with our allies and partners we are going to stay the course. we will do everything we will -- we can to end this war. this is a struggle that pits the appetites of an autocrat against humankind's desire to be free. and let there be no doubt -- no uncertainty, no question -- america stands with the forces of freedom. we always have and we always will. i thank you all, and god bless you, and i'm going to walk over and sign this bill to allow the drawdown of those materials. and may god protect the ukrainians out there defending their country. i am signing it -- what i am signing here is the delegation of authority under the

assistance act of 1961. a total of $800 million. >> mr. president, what will it take for you to send the aide that president zelensky is asking for? pres. biden: i'm not going to comment on that right now. thank you. >> the president now walking away from the press corps after signing an $800 million aid package for the ukrainians. that will include armed drones, as well as antitank weapons, and a small armor, as well as ammunition. it will not include the migs

the ukrainians want. the first question he was asked -- what will it take for you to send the polish migs? we have broken with ukrainian officials who have said all we need is the planes. if you give us the migs we will operate them and we will protect the skies of ukraine. so far it does not look like europeans or the americans, anyone in nato is willing to give them those plans. bring in joel mackey to talk about what we just saw. after an impassioned speech by president zelensky this morning it looks like the white house wants to make a statement. is this one clear? joe: i think it is pretty clear. they have been very consistent here. that was part of the reason why president biden spoke today. following that speech he mentioned, that virtual address to congress by president zelensky -- who, by the way,

acknowledged the reluctance of western leaders to create a no-fly zone over ukraine. that is why you heard the president run down not only what has already been provided and watching him sign there that order to ship another $1 billion with of a two ukraine. he actually showed up with a shopping list here. 800 antiaircraft systems. longer-range aircraft missile systems that zelensky asked for himself. specifically the system he pointed out in that address earlier. 9000 shoulder-meant in missiles. 7000 small arms. 20 million rounds of ammo and order. you mentioned the drones. that was a big ask. today the president really is trying to reinforce, as he gets pressure from capitol hill, the commitment this government has made to provide not only military hardware, but financial assistance. i will tell you republican lawmakers following the zelensky address this morning were quick

to run to the microphones to push the administration to do more. matt: why doesn't the administration want to allow the migs to transfer from poland to ukraine? are they concerned that would be seen as an act of war by the russians? joe: it is interesting. that has been the line until recently. they thought it would be provocative, that this would potentially be a road to world war iii. over the last couple of days the pentagon chimed in to say delivering those jets -- roughly 30 of these russian-built migs 2 9s, not enhance the air force to the extent it needs. it would not have the impact a lot of us seem to think. being in mind a lot of the attacks we have seen against ukraine have come from miles outside of their borders. cruise missile attacks. particularly the one that happened close to the polish border. as of now those jets are going to remain parked in poland. that does not mean they will

stay there forever. matt: you could see drones stray over borders and you cannot really prove who is operating drones. is this going to be a problem? joe: it's a great question and i'm not a military analyst, but these are the types of issues that nato is worried about, that the pentagon is worried about. the potential for an accident, essentially, turning this into a wider conflict. we have redeployed thousands of troops to the border in poland, to the border in romania. you are right, and misidentified drone or fighter plane, i.e. a plane coming from somewhere else, could lead to a dramatic escalation. that is what they are trying to prevent just as much or -- as they are trying to help ukraine. matt: joe mathieu outside the white house as the president has signed another $800 million in ukrainian security eight. right now we still see gains on the s&p 500, up 1.7%. not at this session highs we saw

earlier. nonetheless, a decent gain after more than 2% yesterday. the u.s. 10 year yield continues to climb. investors are willing to let go of the perceived safety of government debt. you can see the bloomberg dollar index right here coming off a little bit, but still over 1200. probably most importantly, crude down about .5%. the iea showing that inventories were stronger than expected -- bigger than expected i should say. the most important thing to be watching outside of the war in ukraine is central-bank action. in less than one hour the fed is expected to raise rates for the first time since 2018, with investors focused on how aggressive chair powell plans to be in tackling the hottest inflation in four decades and the unwinding of the balance sheet, trying to get some mechanics about how that is going to work. let's bring in danielle

dimartino booth. she is the ceo of quill intelligence. also the author of "fed up." what do you expect to hear from jay powell today, beyond a .25% increase? danielle: thank you for having me. i think investors are going to be focused on those dot plots. they want to see at least five, if they see at least six or seven expected rate hikes or a wide disparity in that dot plot, i think there is going to be concerned that there is dissent on that committee and the onus is going to be upon chair powell when he is at the podium to be very explicit and specific about how they expect to roll the balance sheet off if that is going to come with the may meeting. if it is going to be $80 billion a month or $100 billion. there are a lot of things to answer to with a backdrop he was not expecting for this particular march meeting, and that is he was expecting base

affects to have kicked in and for the anticipation to be that the march consumer price index print would start to take down. we know that the double shocks of food and energy are going to prevent that from happening. matt: what do you expect in terms of the recession probability, daniel? with the fed starting to raise rates, the yield curve at around 30 basis points -- so, close to 0 -- and inflation in a lot of places already at double digits and evidently heading there? danielle: you know, there is a lot to unpack there and i think recession probabilities are higher than what goldman sachs suggests at 35% probability. the base case here going forward is going to be stagflation unless something extraordinarily -- extraordinary games. unlike any time since paul volcker stepped into office in 1979, we have genuine inflation

and double-digit territory across a wide range of u.s. consumer prices and durables. and housing, we know, is being undercounted. but that is something that the fed is also very aware of. need to get out and fight this inflation. powell does not have the same flexibility that his predecessors have had. matt: they need to fight inflation. price stability is one of their two mandates, along with full employment. would it bother them to cause a slowdown in growth? i guess that's what they have to do, right? they have to slow down the demand side. danielle: i don't think the fed has many options. i don't think the fed has many choices at this point. that is why senator shelby wasn't so pointed in asking powell, are you willing to be paul volcker? are you willing to put the u.s. economy into a recession to get this inflation under control? i daresay because we have just

seen cross the wires that we are finally going to have a vote on the senate banking committee, pal can be more hawkish in saying, i am prepared to be that person, which is exactly how he answered shelby. yes, i am prepared for history to take me down if that is what it is going to take to get these price pressures under control. matt: in terms of unwinding the balance sheet, how important is the mechanics of that and what the -- and what are you expecting? danielle: i think the fed and lori logan from the new york fed have been explicit in saying this is going to be a more dramatic, more aggressive pace of reducing the balance sheet. they are looking hopefully to do $1 trillion a year, somewhere in that range. again, that is way more aggressive than we saw with the first attempt, when, of course, jay powell was first in office. matt: thanks so much for joining

us. danielle dimartino booth, the ceo and founder of quill intelligence. we are going to breathe -- to be bringing you the details on the fed. that comes up in just 10 minutes with jon ferro and tom keene. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets.

i want to quickly draw your attention to a correction we have to make. bloomberg said that president biden was going to supply the ukrainians with armed drones. the president just signed a package, an $800 million package of ukrainian defense aide. he did say he will supply the ukrainians with drones, but he did not say he would supply the ukrainians with armed drones. it is not clear exactly what kind of drones we are looking at, the white house, the president did not say they are going to be armed. now let's get back to the markets. u.s. corporate bonds are on track for the worst quarter since the global financial crisis. investors are fretting that inflation may trigger rate hikes -- we know there is going to be at least one. and weigh on economic growth. for more on want to bring in meghan graper, barclays head of u.s. great investment syndicate. thank you for joining us. what do you expect out of the

fed today and throughout the year? there are worries that in fighting this inflation the fed is going to have to raise rates, seven, eight times going into february 2023, and not could cause a recession. meghan: yeah, without a doubt today is shaping up to be another radical intersection between what i think are increasingly two-cited risks for central banks, and powell's hands are all but tied to a much more measured start than the market envisioned a month ago. but for the better part of the last three weeks the knock on effect of that central and geopolitical-driven ball has been a visible reallocation of cash into one are perceived safe havens. that is including elongated u.s. treasuries, which, while they dampened underlying yields, has also afforded her words of investment-grade debt a longer runway to look at

historically-attractive coupons. from a market perspective, even in the midst of that volatility, at 68 billion dollars we are still coming off of a very functional backdrop the most active week in the investment-great rocket in 2022 and the seventh most active week all time. these are still functional, even with those moving pieces. matt: what do you think about the treasury? is -- it is the worst treasury market we have seen in 50 years, and with such a seemingly-small gain in yields -- you have seen such a gaping destruction of capital -- how does that work itself out going forward? meghan: here again i think investment-grade is a unique case. in contrast to what you could perceive as a relative basis or risk aversion that are playing out in other asset classes and currencies, i think what is

particularly remarkable in the context of a market that is a function of that right to is down as much as a percent from a total return perspective, which, as you suggested, will be the worst start to a year from a performance vantage point since maybe 1980. but i think what is remarkable is that in the context of that demand for investment-grade continues to exceed expectations, and we saw that with a barclays-led event for the warner media spin off -- he was on hundred $7 billion of interest for a $30 billion transaction last week, with investors who i think continued to be mobilized by credit spreads that are at two-year wide. but in that context also the historic median. more importantly, there is a willingness to play in deals that are pricing with an average pick to secondaries at 14 basis points in the month of march. that is the highest concessions

have been in five years, and i think helping to alleviate some of the pain you are hearing on the return vantage point. matt: i'm glad we got a little bit of time with you. unfortunately the president took up some of it, so hopefully we can get you back on again. meghan graper, barclays head of u.s. investment-grade syndicate. next up, the fed decides. we are going to bring you the details from the announcement as they happen and what is possibly one of the most difficult for decisions we have seen. certainly for jay powell. he has, in some ways, painted himself into a very difficult corner, and you watch to see how he tries to get himself out of that. he fed decides, next. this is bloomberg. ♪