we get into the second quarter. >> we are in a place where we have options. >> i tend to agree with powell. it is going to quickly into recession. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz. we are down 6/10 of 1%. talks about talks. >> this is going to be an important talk about talks. this is president biden in the united states. discussing what is ahead for the relationship of china and russia. how much does china get forced to come out as opposed to taking a behind-the-scenes -- we want everyone to get a wrong -- along. jonathan: vladimir putin told

the chancellor of germany that the ukraine is trying to stall talks. kailey: the ukraine is saying that until we have a cease-fire, we cannot have a serious negotiation. at what point does it realistically come together. there are number of people off the record about how honestly this is not close to a resolution. frankly, there is more to come, and there is a look for more leverage on both sides. jonathan: let's put it all together. we are poised for that. kailey: one of the best weeks we have seen. since november of 2020, i think the note out of goldman sachs for the equity market is misunderstanding the risks and downside risks posed by this war and ukraine. energy supply as well. it indicates that the market isn't necessarily seeing things clearly at this point. jonathan: good morning. we are down .6% on the s&p,

nasdaq 100 is negative as well. a couple of basis points, 215, on 10 year. and crude is all over the point. 10423. lisa: partially eat what kaylee is talking about. we are not fully pricing in the conflict, yet if the conflict goes away, if the war and ukraine stops, then do we get fleeing back to the risky assets because otherwise the economy is recovering. at 9:00, we may get a better sense of how close we are to a resolution. president biden is meeting with xi jinping of china. how much will they discuss the potential sanction and potential downdraft they could face if they do not come ahead and actually do castigate russia? they could take a harder stance. will the u.s. threaten, and how much do they want china to come

out formally and say to russia, knock it off at we have home sales and the u.s. leading indicators read i am curious about the housing market. i want to put this in perspective. we saw the fastest pace of new homes being started to be built, going back to 2006. just giving you a frame of reference. 2006 is ahead of that boom and bust in the u.s. housing market. today, we get a slew of fed speak, including thomas barkan at 1:30 p.m., and michelle bowman. that will be a 2:00 p.m.. how much will they discussed the response to jay powell's press conference? frankly, they do not buy it. this is a way to show it. if you take a look at the market, if you take a look at how it is at a new record high from one it was yesterday, $9 trillion, if you look at inflation expectations, they have not come down. they are at the highest level

post 2002. will they bite aggressively to --. jonathan: chairman powell speak twice the next week as well. >> that is what i'm looking for. fed chair powell said he was expecting it to be about one rate hike. what does that mean? they're going to reduce it by what? half $1 trillion or $2 trillion for deutsche bank. jonathan: big big numbers. thank you. talks about talks. that is what we are talking about. we have heard from the kremlin already. vladimir putin has said the ukraine is trying to stall those talks. we heard from the deputy head from the president of ukraine. listen. >> talks continue. unfortunately, progress is not fast as one would have expected, and there are talks that should

ideally take place in terms of cease fire. that is not the case currently. jonathan: coverage starts right now with emily in washington. but start with you. a conversation between president biden and president xi jinping. how important is that? >> that is incredibly important. we will see that happen at 9 a.m.. it is twofold. the biden administration wants to make sure they are letting the chinese president know that if he supports with military aid or relieve russia with sanctions, the united states is prepared to put more sanctions on china. they are willing to move quickly and decisively. we do not know what these sanctions are going to be, yet. we have not heard from white house officials, but that is one of the messages that biden is going to be delivering today. the other is trying to get a sense of where china stands when it comes to how they see the relationship with russia. at this point, we have seen

careful messaging from beijing. they have talked about wanting peace and ukraine and having a peaceful solution. at the same time, with press secretary jen psaki pointing out, we have not come down and condemned russia's actions at this point. part of this is going to be getting a sense of where china might stand and warning them that if they think they can straddle the line, it will be a problem if they start moving closer and closer to pruden. kailey: we have vladimir schultz talking to vladimir putin, and he sees the blame, not surprisingly, as with ukraine, not with russia. how close are we to some sort of cease fire or some sort of end to what we are seeing? >> it is so hard to predict, but if you ask me, we are weeks away. this is not a situation that will be resolved in a matter of days. if you speak to the russians and you look at all of the

information coming from the russian government, you can hear this is about the ukraine. the problem is that they need to get real and they need a reality check. a lot of the points on the negotiating table are unrealistic. vladimir putin had a call with schulz which he said the talks have solved -- stalled but it is not russia's fault. he will be on the phone with the russian president -- french president. but if you speak to the ukrainians, they go back to the fundamentals. how can we negotiate anything bilaterally with russia? cities get shelled every night. we made it clear that we need to see a cease-fire and it can really engage the russians. russia lied about the invasion. they were ready to go on the ukraine. russia continues to lie about belarus being involved in this. how can we trust them in a way that is construction -- constructive? in a way that is honest? what we see right now is two sides trying to rock up

leveraged in real talks, but only down the line. this is not a situation that gets resolved in the next 48 hours. >> trust is a big issue and that is why we would like security guaranteed in any kind of deal. you are speaking to igor, talking about the idea of e.u. membership. does being a member of the european union guarantee security? >> he is very close to president zelenskyy, and he has been involved in diplomacy for a very long time, so speaking with him gives a very clear idea in terms of the thinking that is going on in the capital and the government there. at this point, it has become very clear that we are not only -- that they are not going to be a member of nato. he is disappointed with data. but he brought up the membership. this is something that the ukraine initiated, and he said that if we don't get one, it will take sense. if we get the other one, after e.u. membership, we will get a

security guarantee that can satisfy because we go back to the initial point. we are not going to cut a peace deal bilaterally with russia. we don't trust them. we want an international deal that is cosigned by a number of other countries, and for us. the ukrainians. european union offers the best guarantees. jonathan: wonderful interview earlier. that is maria and emily wilkin. the secretary was pretty blunt going into this 24 hour conversation predict it will take place at 9 a.m. between the president of the united states and the chinese president. they will there spots ability for any actions they take to support russia's aggression, and we will not hesitate to win costs. >> are so many rumors flying around and has been increasingly tough and hard as they say that perhaps there is an idea of china supplying weapons to russia. others will come out with an interest in actually doing that. how much does this motivate

china's desire to solidify the commodity resources. the idea that they rely so heavily on russia for gas and some of the other grains? jonathan: it came from the intelligence agency and a summary of worldwide threats after article after article with this quote -- here is the quote. this war and the consequences weaken russia's strength, russia will increasingly lie on its nuclear deterrent to project strength to its internal and external audiences. things you do not want to read. it is something we had to read yesterday. lisa: we saw him put his forces on alert and a way that we had not seen for decades. my question is, how much is the deterrent access a key one? is he going to use it as a threat? is he going to use this as a specter for exhalation to bring the temperature down? it is already working. why are we not sending certain

fighter jets to ukraine? this is part of the issue. jonathan: my question is how much cap he realized discounted already equities on course for the biggest week of gains of the year. crude is down 5% this week, going lower for a second straight week. kailey: this is across asset classes. at the market doesn't know how to price the uncertainty. there is nuclear risk but there are broader questions about this. no market has figure this out. jonathan: good morning. talks about talks. futures are down 4% on the nasdaq 100. we are down 5% as well. europe is lower by about a cap bull basis point print let's rounded up for you and call it to 15. crude is at 10420. from new york, this is bloomberg. >> keep you up-to-date with news from around the world first word news. vladimir putin will try to

persuade xi jinping to lower the pressure. this is the first talk with the chinese president since the invasion began. u.s. officials are trying to figure out china's position on the world -- war. vladimir putin often has rhetorical support for ukraine. ensuring russian debt against the drop in bond prices from bloomberg. the market has interest payments on the russian government to ascend payment agents, and they are still waiting to receive $117 million. while extending those gains, it is the biggest daily surgeon 16 months pushing prices back over $100 a barrel, it is a second weekly loss in a tumultuous. of trading. wti has dropped nine dollars in just two sessions. the u.s. government has approval for the second coronavirus rooster for all adults which covers significantly more people.

pfizer's earlier request for emergency authorization for those over 65. there is been a debate over whether repeated shots are necessary. general electric has slashed the controversial pay package by $10 million for their ceo. this is in response to the last year review for shareholders. it targets conversation -- compensation from $1 million to 11 nine dollars and a nonbinding resolution. it went over against the original paid. powered by tories and hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries, i am rikita gupta and this is bloomberg.

>> we believe china in particular has a responsibility to use its influence on president putin and to defend the rules and principles it professes to support. they are directly assisting russia with military equipment to use in ukraine and will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support his aggression and we will not hesitate to impose cost. jonathan: a blunt assessment from the secretary of state with talks between the president of the united states, joe biden, and the president of china. futures are down on the nasdaq right now.

down .6% also in the bond market, a yield at 2.14 76. the question of yesterday is, did russia meet its obligation to meet those interest payments on russian debt. this is coming in from the finance ministry. the russian finance minister he. it says that paying agency, citibank, the bank agent to be specific, the london branch, received $117 million according to an email statement. kailey: they confirmed the scoop from yesterday which confirmed that the russians sent a $117 million payments to jp morgan which sent it on to city. now that we have trace the money to citibank, do the people who are owed that money get paid? that is unanswered. jonathan: is this a test of the pipes? this could clear the pipes, so to speak. lisa: there are so many questions here. the clearing of the pipes, although the treasury department

did say that russia could fulfill its agreement for a while longer, even with the freeze. there is a caveat there. did they pay in rubles? did they pay euros? did they pay in dollars? how much does this get to the investors, and also, will the russians meet their following payments that are due. this is the first test of what will promise to be a series of nailbiter's. jonathan: there are more to come, and there will be? 's over everything going. joining us now is the cio at bank and trust. you call it a snapback rally. you expected to continue. why? >> the conditions are a stretch. you have 30. you have cash levels at institutional investors at 6%. you have extreme levels on sentiment for institutions and

retail investment. there are protections in the market and corporations. there are technical reasons why snap earnings were expected. we've seen it. it can continue. as long as those two red lines fall, the red lines being russian harpo -- hydrocarbons going into europe, and escalation that directly involves nato. those red lines are being pushed all the time, but we expect the snapback to continue, but it does not change the fundamentals which are one of volatility and the dangers of web saws, and continuing trajectories and assets. kailey: would you say you have a lot of conviction? >> i think the thing to say is we've got president zelenskyy saying he needs to hold the line, and we have to backed with

some conviction. you need to look at the medium term and hold that line. that could allow you to play through what is going to continue to be a very choppy market. kailey: with the meltdown or melt up, there are very specific sectors which are getting hit harder than others. when you lean into risk, what does that mean to you? >> looking into that medium term, we've spoken a number of times about conviction in the long term under supply in the oil market, so we are happy to be adding to that on week this like we saw in the last week. there was a big decline in oil prices, and we were worried about china's consumption and people thought that maybe opec was going to respond to an increase production to offset to russia. we saw that correction, but we are getting back into that area where we have conviction. in the medium term and also it provides a decent hedge to any further escalation or a redline being crossed in the empire go

-- embargo on russian hydrocarbons. kailey: how do you delineate between a trustworthy and untrustworthy asset question mark this we think is a new paradigm. trying to split and segregate different assets to understand how to blame an investment, and value growth in different geographies. we would actually introduce trust is one of the biggest factors of what needs to be considered when making allocations. do you trust that you own the asset, do you trust your right as a shareholder, as an owner of the asset, as a property owner, will be protected? what are the legal protections in place? you have seen what has happened in russia. russian assets went from the bond you were talking about earlier, and went from 140 back in november, $140 to 100 $.40.

back to eight cents and then getting paid. that is not an asset to be trusted. it is to be traded, but not to be trusted. they own it, but they never realized the capital. jonathan: let's take this one step further and wrap it up there. with all of that in mind from your perspective, is china investable? >> no. there you go. short answer. no. you can trade and you should, but the massive rally we saw last week, that was triggered by government decree. china had institutions that need to invest in some market. they turn around and say they want the capital markets to function, but is it an investment in the long-term? wonder -- what are the returns going to be?

it is whatever the president xi jinping decides. whatever the cash submission is going to be. what is the best sect there -- the tech sector -- determined by what mood resident xi jinping has with jack mar. that is not a long-term prospector there are investment opportunities, but they are short-term if they are holding in china. you need to believe that maybe reforms that are going to be more shareholder friendly are right. they are going to improve, and we do not believe that. jonathan: thank you. good to catch up, as always. trust -- the key issue there, lisa, not for russia but for china as well. lisa: how much can you count on investing in a country that is so dictated from the top, and the dictation changes even from china. they created a low paid for their currency in years. speaking to the idea of state control over what we have understood to be more free markets in other places. jonathan: there is a view that

your returns will be whatever the president wants them to be. whatever chairman powell decides. lisa: i wouldn't say that. i don't think he has that kind of control. jonathan: some people might say that. from new york, this is bloomberg.

jonathan: live on tv and radio for our audience worldwide with equity futures down .6%, this is bloomberg. we are up almost 5% coming into friday on the s&p and facing down one of the bigley weakest -- biggest weekly gains. their 10 year yield is shaping up as follows -- on a 10 year, yields are drifting higher than lower. pushing 2%. we look a little something like this. 1.8948, coming in at two basis points. down three basis points there. and if you look at the spread between twos and tens, the yield curve, just in and around 20. you can see the decline. the flatness is coming in on the yield curve. 24 basis points on a two-year versus a 10 year. lisa, unchanged on my screen.

20%. lisa: what are they trying to achieve? they don't have foreign investment. they have been cut off from the entire financial system. they're dealing with inflationary pressures that are out of control because of the appreciation of the ruble, but how does the central bank deal with an economy that has been made a global pariah because of the war they are charging in ukraine. jonathan: we have to talk about the inflation target and their ability to get back on target. the bank of russia, we may return to the 4% cpi target in 2024. kailey: it sounds optimistic. i pulled up the ruble to see if there is any reaction. we started the year at 74. this is extreme pressure on the economy, and two years down the road, they see normalization that it's really interesting, and i think the headline from the bank of russia is entering a restructuring phase. that is what we are calling it. jonathan: that is a restructuring that we are going

through. perhaps beyond. we will ray -- wait further changes based on the situation. higher inflation is inevitable, but they call it temporary. lisa: central-bank independence is funny to talk about in the realm of what we are dealing with. i think it is interesting that the bond payment or statement from the russian finance ministry came in such close proximity to the right decision. how integral is a position of maintaining bond payments, and avoiding the fall, going back to currency bonds, how important is that to the restructuring that they first see? jonathan: the central bank and the challenges they face are different from the federal reserve. it is interesting that every headline you read right now is just doubts about the ability to try and achieve what they are trying to achieve. let us talk about that regard. they put out a forecast and assessment. it is a long list of people to say no, i don't think so. lisa: the market is saying that

too. you could argue even stocks. five-year inflation expectations are the highest in data going back to 2000 two, despite the fact that the fed says they will get more aggressive to fight inflation. jonathan: we are invited -- we are joined by the chief market investment from metlife. you think the objectives and outlooks are achievable? >> i do. but i don't think the objective is everything that they think it is. this is not out there to do anything but to convince people that they care about inflation. i think they are convincing people they care about inflation, but whether or not people think they can do anything about it is another matter, and quite frankly, they probably cannot, but they are out there convincing people they can and trying to convince people they can, and everything they do going forward will be guided by convincing people that they care about inflation. lisa: can you reset on that?

you don't think the fed can control inflation here? >> unless they can fix the supply chains around the world and do something about energy prices, they are tilting at windmills. they need to convince people that they can contain inflation and do what it takes. there playing off the fed ring famous, before that. no one knew or cared what the fed was, and now we talk about all day. they play off of that. in order to achieve a goal, which is to maintain inflation expectations at more reasonable levels than they otherwise would. lisa: what is the implication of that? if they are trying to tighten the supply of money to essentially slow growth, what does that mean in terms of how the interplay with that, given that they will not be able to materially bring down inflation with those moves? >> that is the question. are they actually going to follow through on those rate hikes, or will those rate hikes be put in place, the idea of those put in place so that they

can convince people that they care? if you get to the second half of the year, the base effect alone should tell you that it starts to drift lower. it might not come down as fast as we would like, and it might have a forecast that is wrong, and we are expecting low threes by year end. but let's say they are wrong, but they get the direction right foreign -- for where inflation is heading. they do not need any follow through on those rate hikes. we went from basically 028 rate hikes -- zero to eight rate hikes. that is what people missed in this insight idea. the fed uses the tools they have, and most of the tools are actually communication tools right now. we will see them using that. it is purposeful, and it is the only thing they can do. it is the only thing that they will.

>> another one of those tools is the large balance sheet. how do you factor in qt to this equation? >> qt is coming sooner rather than later. i think it will be announced at the next meeting, and i think he hinted at that in the most recent press conference when he said it was time to do it. he said it is time to raise rates. it is time to do qt. we should all be expecting it coming. if it is not made, it will be june. it will be earlier than the second half of the year which is what people originally had put in place. it is the best way for them to build up a warchest in case something goes wrong in the economy. they need to get that number lower, $1 trillion off the balance sheet, and that is a trillion dollars they can use for the next recession, and if they don't know when the next recession is, they would rather have it now, rather than later. >> put that altogether and feed it to the bond market. are we headed for inversion? we have seen it with some parts

of the curve at 210. >> is where the rubber hits the road. it's where the fed balks and says we do not want to change the curve. at the last press conference in january, it was talking about -- in the past, it was liking to tens, and we are below those levels. if the yield curve looks like it is going to invert, that will be something that actually keeps the fed from going ahead and executing on the dot plot. if i am wrong, in that it is an idea. jonathan: the seven year yield is above the 10 year yield. weekly, the five-year was above the tenure. i would ask, if this happened, take your pick on the yield curve, and inflation is running 5%, 6%. what choice do they have? >> they have a choice of a high

inflation environment or a low growth, high inflation environment. if you are given the choice is a policymaker, you choose high growth and high inflation. >> thank you. thank you very much. just a range of opinions at the moment. morgan stanley this -- we think rates will be higher. higher inflation, stronger growth. they go on to say that it will allow a higher peak and a longer high-yield cycle. there is a lot of pushback against that idea. lisa: true was saying one of the key aspects of fed tools is communication. if what we are hearing is basically people dismissing what the fed chair is saying is unrealistic, you have to allow a higher rate of inflation that they are currently projecting rather than 2% or 3%. the rather that they are gaming out if they have lost credibility. they don't anymore have the believability to direct policy. they can do and say what they want. jonathan: they lost credibility

last year. this was about reclaiming credibility. lisa: do you think they succeeded? if we look at the market response, i did not hear a dovish chair. i did not hear a dovish powell. but here we have the market responding to what he said as they do not go too aggressively. i am trying to square those two, and he needs to come down to this idea that people do not believe he will do what it takes to counter inflation. jonathan: i agree with you. i was flying blind, and we got through that, and you said guest with the equity market is pretty i would not have said higher? kailey: the chairman would've been surprised to see that too. not just for the fed but for other central banks. the boe as we talked about on this program, tried to dovish hike, and the market did not buy it was not going to have to be aggressive and raise rates. the market is pricing that in. it seems there is a credibility on both sides of the atlantic. jonathan: another central bank we are looking at, the central

bank of russia to leave rates unchanged. 20%, and offering an assessment of restructuring for it that has to take place. i think that word is diplomatic, to say the least. restructuring needs to take place in russia. we will hear from that later, 10 a.m. eastern time. several hours from now. looking forward to hearing what she has to say. and looking ahead to next week, we keep going back to talks about talks. this talk about the actual talks. the chancellor is inviting g7 leaders in russia. -- brussels. the president is likely to attend all of this as well. lining up for a big week week. lisa: a big week to create a crescendo to ring this conflict to a close. picking up on what you said about russia, and the diplomacy of those statements, they also say that it sees a decline in the gdp over the coming quarters. you think? businesses are reporting logistical difficulties. again, a diplomatic way of saying our economy has been

torpedoed in two weeks. how much do you see europe starting to respond, and how much will russia concede to what they are feeling? jonathan: the former central bank governors turkey, and our members saying at the time, you have the hardest job in central banking. do you believe that title now belongs to the central bank governor of russia? we are joking about some of the statements he has to make today. what a tough spot. lisa: she probably has an audience of one. and that one is a very difficult audience to have. jonathan: futures are down .6% on the nasdaq, and almost .7%. we are looking up to catch up with julie norman. we will do that shortly. from new york, this is bloomberg. >> keep you up-to-date with news from around the world. ukraine's president zelenskyy

says that peace stop with russians are going on, but the pace is rather slow. >> the talks continue, but unfortunately, the process is not that fast as one would have expected, and definitely, and he talks ideally should take place in the terms of cease-fire. that is not the case, currently. >> he says a cease-fire should be implement it immediately. u.s. intelligence experts warned that vladimir putin is likely to make threats to use nuclear weapons if russia's invasion of ukraine drags on. that is part of the summary of worldwide threats to the defense intelligence agency. ukraine's continued resistance would drain conventional military strength. china, president xi jinping has pledged to reduce the economic impact of the covid fighting measures. that shifts the strategy that has minimized fatalities in the world's second-largest economy.

meanwhile, the technology hub is easing it's lockdown for factories and public transport as part of the effort to resume operations. it was a glitchy opening in london, and it dropped 12% for the third day at the london exchange. introduced last week, there was a price by great global news, 20 for hours a day and on uber quick take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> we need cargo, moving into ukrainian territory. we would believe it is carrying

weapons. we are implementing operations, the goal of which is to remove any threat to the russian federation coming from the ukrainian soil. jonathan: the perspective of the russian government has not changed. that was the foreign minister of russia on rt. futures are down 1/10 of 1% print their down about .7% on the bond market. a little bit of firmness. we are relishing -- rallying. 14.5 a. line after line, here is another one. the european parliament president is banning russia and belarus diplomats. that line is crossed moments ago. >> it has been a rapid exit munication of all things russia, and how much this actually pushes russia into actually capitulating. ceasing fire, and beginning talks and serious. we have not seen that yet. jonathan: there are talks later this morning, nine :00, between the president of the united

states and the president of china. these talks are important. let's get into it with julie norman, the director of politics. let's get a question and we will be deeper and more specific. we have a growing superpower with a different interpretation of the perceived responsibility that goes with that. have we fully realized the risk associated with that assessment? >> that has been the idea behind dividing -- behind the biden administration, but they have not been able to focus so much on china because of these other developments. they are forced to do that in relation to what we are seeing now in ukraine. the other question is to what extent china sees their role in all of this as well. they have really thrived on being a rising power on the economic side. they have not put themselves forward as a leading diplomat or other ways. they are really being put in that position now to decide if they are going to really back

russian -- russia in a meaningful way. if they are going to slow off this neutral space, or if they're going to do something more broadly. certainly, in this meeting between biden and president xi jinping, assuming very strong words from biting, following up on the median -- meeting with jake sullivan, and if china does back russia in economic or military ways, they will also face costs. lisa: how do you read the hardening rhetoric. china is taking steps to support russia. how much is this from a strategic wind of you trying to pressure rusher -- russia to pressure china to pressure russia to end the conflict? works that is a big part of it. we have heard biden use war criminal this week. that was initially off-the-cuff, but then it was reaffirmed by biden the next day, as well as a

burlington -- the secretary state. this will be must mow -- much more personal, and it is not just a strategic courage we have made, but it may be aligning yourself with someone that we see as a potential war criminal, and lining yourself up with that as well. reports have shown that russia has asked china for different kinds of military support ranging from drones and vehicles to emaar ease and intelligence equipment. we are watching that closely. it does not come as a surprise that the request has gone through. i think the more concern is china assisting russia around these sanctions. that is the pressure point that the u.s. and nato have with russia right now, and china has seen this as a lifeline to russia in that regard. that is where things will get tricky and where the united states is looking for mechanisms to push back on that. lisa: how do you understand the

rhetoric from ukrainians and russians on how the talks are going in terms of ending this? wax this is interesting it we see the bombardments, and we see bellicose rhetoric from prudent himself. but when we look at those who are involved in the negotiations, the foreign ministers, we see some signs of progress this week. there seem to be two main areas. where the negotiation is focus. one is neutrality. for the ukraine, moving forward, and the other is in regards to territories. weaponizing certain territories as russian. the first piece, there has been significant movement on. zelenskyy has indicated a willingness to negotiate on the neutrality piece. russia has back down on its calls for regime change or installing a separate government in ukraine. that is quite positive. it is also possible that the two parties will agree to compartmentalize territorial questions and put those into a referendum format, later. that is what i see this inching

towards, but again, we have a cease-fire in place. it is hard to see the most important conversations behind those without an actual cease-fire to allow that to happen. kailey: quickly, what is more dangerous? russia aligned with china and receiving support from china, or russia receiving support from no one and backed into a corner with nuclear weapons at its disposal? >> that is one of the questions right now. to see if russia is open to an exit ramp, or if prudent is actually trying to accelerate -- vladimir putin is trying to accelerate things further. how much can you push him without provoking him? the idea pushing him into a corner where he is no other options is where we see a concern that he might do something reckless like eight chemical weapon or a tactical nuclear weapon. we are not at that point yet. that is one reason why we see this extreme caution in some regard and how we play this and how much we push and. jonathan: thank you.

we are lucky to catch up with you today. it is an important day for the united states and china. as talks are several hours away. julie norman, there. we have several hours of talk between jake sullivan, the national security advisor at his chinese counterpart. we have very little detail of what came out of a seven hour conversation. my question would be, what was said, or what was not said that has pushed the president of the united states to alternately opt for a conversation himself? lisa: and for the administration to take a harder line. the potential panties -- penalties that united states will take, supported ukraine, or stepping back from russia. to me, that is fascinating because it means that something was not said in those talks to give them a guarantee that they are not securely on russia's site. jonathan: to build on that, the language of secretary blinken speaks for itself. i will read it again.

china will bear responsibility for any actions to support russia's aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs. we know what the ministrations concern is going into these talks. kailey: how does xi jinping respond to that. what is he willing to risk when it comes to the penitential -- potential imposition of costs. jonathan: those talks are two hours and five mins away. teachers are negatives. .7% on the s and p. we have had a ready decent week so far. through thursday's close, we were higher by almost 5%. we pull back a little bit, about .75 percent. on the nasdaq 100 and the s and p. yields are lower by two or three basis points. prude is higher by one percentage point. we are nowhere near the highs of the last couple of weeks. wti, or brent. lisa: just shocking this week. down 10% and up 20%.

again, it is like bitcoin. jonathan: volatile. meme stocks over the place. the meme efficacious in of the bond market. all of the above. we will be joined soon from alpha simplex. we are looking forward to that. this is bloomberg.

>> ukraine has been a concern and that is playing into the equity market. >> i think the market dynamics will shift a little bit as we get into the second quarter. >> we are in a phase where there is a degree of optimism. >> i tend to agree with powell, this is not an economy that will go quickly into recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. futures down 0.7% on the s&p, two hours away from talks between the president of the united states and china. lisa: i feel like this is a really important one. even with vladimir putin and other leaders