tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 23, 2022 2:00am-3:00am EDT
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>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger. inflation hammers global bond markets, sparking the biggest selloff on record. president biden takes his tough on russia message to nato as new sanctions loom. plus u.k. stagflation fears. rishi sunak lays out plans to counter the nations cost of
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living crisis. it is the bond market where carnage continues. looking at the biggest drawdown on record. -- amounts not seen since the 2007 credit crisis. the conundrum for markets this morning is spite those losses, stocks continue to chug higher. so how do we explain this? if you are mohamed el-erian, it is a market untethered to the reality of the economy. the reality in his mind is stagflation, saying "my baseline is we are going to see a global stagflation, lower growth, higher inflation." the equity market has not quite priced that in yet because it is thinking in a relative space. he thinks you should be selling equities but the relative space is the important thing. it is the return that perhaps explains this divide between stocks and bonds. as you have inflation moving
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higher, all of a sudden, s&p 500 , the inverse trade to what yields are doing, is not working anymore and that is what you are seeing on the gtv board right now. inflation expectations are higher. the only place you can escape negative real returns is perhaps in equities. let's get your check on equity markets and cross-asset's this morning. we are seeing those gains holding steady when it comes to s&p 500 futures, up .2%. bigger outperformance from europe, playing catch up on wall street yesterday. bond selloff, it continues perhaps not a facet has been -- steep as it has been. that is a little bit wavering today and you have pretty much a flat dollar, euro-dollar that stands at 1.10 energy sanctions on russia continue to dominate
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the conversation in the energy patch. let's get to our reporters from around the world. juliette saly is looking at record losses and bond markets. the latest from fed speak. maria tadeo is giving us the latest on the war in ukraine. as we have been discussing, losses in the bond market have hit a new milestone. it is the worst inflation in decades that is hammering fixed income. since a high in january of 2021, $2.6 billion have been wiped off the index for bonds paid let's get to juliette saly in singapore who has the details. what kind of levels of drawdowns are we seeing? juliette: it is a real blow for money managers. they are accustomed to two years of gains when you have seen the bloomberg global aggregate index which measures global corporate and government debt. plunging by 11%.
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11% from the january 2021 peak. surpassing records going back to 1990. this is a bigger drawdown then we saw during the global financial crisis in 2008. when it comes to the monetary value of this $2.6 trillion loss that we saw wiped off the bond market in 2008. we are seeing investors flock into equities and this is perhaps a hedge here. the asia-pacific index up for a second session in a row. a lot of this is to do with the strength of the dollar against the yen and we are continuing to see the yen at six year lows. that is pushing the nikkei higher for a seventh session. we are also close early -- closely looking ahead. alibaba coming back with a share buyback. will tencent do the same?
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it is expected to announce the slowest profit growth on record. dani: great round up. that is juliette saly in singapore. said officials backing chair jay powell overhyped to tackle soaring u.s. inflation. mary daly says the federal bank should be marching up to neutral. why jim bullard says faster is better. for more on this, we are joined by enda curran. how much backing does powell's 50 basis point hike, the possibility, the lack of things holding him back from doing that, how much credence and support is that getting from other fed speakers we are hearing from? >> -- enda: we had a volley of hawkish rhetoric from fed officials. mary daly saying not only do they need to get rates back to neutral, they need to go into tightening territory for the economy. we have jim bullard saying on
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bloomberg television a similar message. faster is better. he voted for the rate hike already. seems to be leaning towards the jerome powell camp. the fed seem to be responding to criticism behind the curve. they have not acted fast enough to contain inflation. in the space of a week, we have gone from commentary over incremental rate hikes to a big move by chairman powell. fed officials weighing in behind him so by all accounts, a lot of the expectation is for bigger moves by the fed and that of course will lend itself to more market volatility. dani: thank you very much. that is enda curran, our chief asia economics correspondent keeping us up-to-date on the latest fed speak. let's get the latest on the were in ukraine and president joe biden and european allies are expected to announce new sanctions against russia when they meet in brussels on thursday. joining us for more is
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bloomberg's european correspondent, maria tadeo. biden promising more actions but europeans remain split. what sort of outcome are we expecting from this meeting? maria: it is a whole diversion of intentions. he says we are going to see more sanctions and we are going to close loopholes about the existing one. a lot of this has to do with the fact that the mother of all sanctions -- when you look at the operations -- dani: apologies. maria giving us the latest with of course biden and european leaders planning on meeting as maria was just explaining. biden being tough on russia, trying to get support from nato. let's continue with the ukraine story.
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mary a pole continues -- the ukrainian population has been displaced. fleeing to the west of the country and onwards to the european union. let's bring in aggie. what is the latest on the ground? >> we are seeing a lot of people who are trying to leave the country here, trying to leave from the areas like this area around mariupol. they are trying to shift westwards but a lot of them are not necessarily all coming over the border. a lot of them are being displaced internally within ukraine in the west of the country which has seen a lot less fighting than the areas, the eastern areas near russia. what is important to see here is that as the russians have still not managed to encircle kyiv, there seems to be a lot of interest from the russian side in securing these areas like the city of merida point in the south of the country very near to the russian border.
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only 16 kilometers from the russian border and is a key interest for the russians because it will allow them to managed to secure a land corridor if they can get the area between russia and crimea. there seems to be effort to make sure they are able to secure these areas and we are hearing from president zelenskyy's representative over the last several days that while the ukrainians are willing to look at the prospect of neutrality with security guarantees in any sort of peace agreement, they are not willing to make these territorial concessions. the fighting is likely to remain in this area in the east of the country for a while. dani: thank you very much. that is bloomberg's aggi cantrill in poland near the ukrainian border. let's get back to maria tadeo. her sound is back loud and clear. we left talking about the meeting between u.s. and european allies. what sort of sanctions are we expecting? maria: let's hope we can make it
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work today. it happens, live tv. when you look at the details, the u.s. president is clearly sending a message ahead of this thursday meeting here. it is going to be a master day. president zelenskyy jumping in on this call with nato members. there will be more sanctions on russia, particularly if the situation on the ground escalates. there is use of biological and chemical weapons. the invasion has stalled for russia. they have not really taken any of the major cities they wanted to so far. the reality is, it's going to take a miracle for the european position to unite around a single package for 48 hours. every official i have spoken with, they keep telling me there is no unanimity around those.
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the energy picture is complicated. there isn't a european energy market. there's countries that have completely different systems as part of the european union. they are focused just on the price of electricity. the other thing president biden is going to want to talk about his nato spending in that area. we want to spend up to 2% of our gdp and that is something that is doable. i also expect he will make an announcement on nato troops on the ground in the eastern front. extending some of the operations in that part of europe in the face of a more aggressive russia. the other big issue will be on friday in poland. humanitarian aid for the country. poland has taken more than 2 million people in the space of four weeks. this is a huge effort that the country is making to welcome people who are fleeing war but it really weighs on the infrastructure so i would not be
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surprised to see a big bilateral deal between the polish and the u.s. government on that friday visit. dani: maria, thank you perhaps part of the reason why every time it gets headlines about a possible deal, oil surges but then starts to peter out. great reporting as always. that is bloomberg's maria tadeo. let's take a look at the other events for the nato meeting. rishi sunak will deliver a mini budget, the spring statement. as many people face a cost-of-living squeeze. at noontime, fed chairman jerome powell and bank of england governor andrew bailey speaking at the innovation sent about the challenge that central-bank chiefs would face. we are expecting the latest consumer confidence data from the euro area. that would be followed by russian industrial production
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data at 4:00 p.m. u.k. time. coming up, a record drawdown. a global bonds index has lost a whopping $2.6 billion. we will discuss the rout and the risks spooking the market or perhaps lack of that when we discuss with our guest, next. plus, millions of barrels of russian oil are still finding their way to buyers almost a month after the country first invaded ukraine. we will have that story for you later. this is bloomberg. ♪
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if you were with the program for the break, i believe i said billion but it's $2.6 trillion. quite a big difference. that is the most on record. stock investors don't seem worried about the growing stagflation risk. the s&p 500 rallied five out of the past six sessions of more than 1% but bloomberg a columnist mohamed el-erian believes -- bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian believes -- >> i would reduce equities at this point. i would take some money off the table. i would think the market is giving you a wonderful opportunity to come out. dani: with us now is william davies, global chief best an officer -- chief investment officer. are you surprised to the extent of the drawdown you have seen in global bonds? william: i think i would be surprised. the extent of that drawdown,
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obviously, the reason that we are seeing the selloff is inflation and the greater inflation figures that we are seeing around the world. we have to be a little bit careful i think of what is causing that because if we look at the heightened inflation, there is a lot which is being driven by commodity price increases. that in turn is being driven by some of the sanctions which are being imposed upon russia. we have to be careful because that actually may dent growth as we go through this year and as that dents growth, it may have the opposite impact on yields around the world. the u.s. tenure at 2.4%. it was closer to 1.6% earlier on this year. germany, 10 years these are real big changes that we are seeing. dani: i just think about what it
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is like to invest in this market. where is the trade at this moment? you are getting thrown back and forth over the past year. william: as you highlight the hurt in sovereign bond markets, we are really seeing that. you look at equities and you have seen equities fall earlier on this year. there's expectations of rate rises. increased as we went through january and february and obviously, we have the tragic invasion of ukraine further denting growth expectations and that eventually is likely to hit profitability and earnings so consequently, if we look at that
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, the rise in equities that we have seen, the degree to which they have recovered over the past couple of weeks has been quite surprising, the speed with which that happens but we must not forget that the underlying profitability of companies around the world remains strong. commodities prices and supply chain issues may impact. the balance sheets and the profitability of companies remains strong. dani: does that mean you don't necessarily agree with the statement that you should be selling equities, that they are not reflecting the economic realities? william: how could i possibly disagree with him? but yes, i do disagree. columbia threads the needle. in spite of some of these factors which we think provide the uncertainty as we go through this year, we believe balance sheets are strong. corporate profitability is strong.
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as we get through this year, we will see an impact on growth from sanctions in russia but if we look for instance at the u.s. economy, that impact on growth is likely to be less than in some of the other regions. so consequently, even though the u.s. market may look a bit more expensive than others around the world, we think there is momentum behind that profitability and that actually, that looks quite attractive. we have been far more constructive on the outlook for equities as we move forward. dani: how are we thinking about the risk scenarios when it comes to this energy space? we have bank of america -- 200 dollars a barrel per oil. what is the volatility -- what does the volatility in oil due to your input? william: one to get some of these headline numbers, we expect it could be $200. we had a suggestion that oil could be $300 from russia a
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couple of weeks ago. when you see those, you can see that actually within markets, some of the worst expectations are being raised. were we to have a further spike in oil prices, to my mind, that impacts like an increased tax. that is a hit on the consumer. that will dent economic growth as we move forward. consequently, we look at some of the moves in the bond markets. hang on, just be careful. think about what has driven this, expectations of further inflation. if that is driven by supply side, driven by commodities, we think that that is going to lead to some pressure on growth as we move forward. there may be some respite in bond markets as a result of that. look at because in the headline. -- the calls in the headline. dani: you are not talking about the fed hurting that growth.
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are you not in that camp? is it smooth sailing at least in terms of their impact to damaging the economy? william: we have gone from two or three rate increases back in december to seven. 25 basis points every meeting, may be 50 basis points at certain meetings. certainly, the negative impact of fed rate increases is being discounted in markets right now. as we move forward and see some of that impact of high commodities prices on growth, actually, there may be less reason to raise rates. if we look at the bank of england, it will be a little bit more circumspect about rate increases as we go through this year because of the pressure on growth. at the last fed meeting, there came out -- the expectations for economic growth this year were reduced.
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no one concentrated on that. everyone concentrated on the seven rate increases according to that dot plot. dani: it is fascinating, the contrast between the boe and the fed. so fantastic to have you on this morning, william davies, global chief investment officer of columbia threaded needle investments, a timely conversation. coming up, millions of barrels of russian oil are finding a way to buyers after the country first invaded ukraine. we will have that story for you, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the country first invaded ukraine. that is tempering concerns that a sanctions backlash will all but choke off supply. joining us now is elizabeth low. crude has been extremely volatile in the past few weeks. what is happening in oil markets at the moment and what are investors expecting? elizabeth: so there's been so much uncertainty in oil markets. i can imagine it is hard for traders to make a call these days. there is oil cargoes especially in europe. we hear more bias, purchasing russian cargoes. we have still seen some russian flows heading to some parts of asia but it's hard to say how certain this will be going
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ahead. things could change with any new sanctions. the market is looking a little less tight then we initially expected. -- than we initially expected. dani: if you are said russian oil is finding buyers in india and other countries so isn't the market concerned? oil prices should be at $100 or even $90. is it fair to say these supply issues are overblown? elizabeth: i think that is a really hard call to make. i think the markets have been extremely volatile. certainly, the markets avoidance of russian oil is going to make a difference ahead. the extent of it is what everyone is trying to gauge at the moment. economists from the federal reserve are saying that there could be a recession. dani: elizabeth, afraid we will
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dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. the 2.6 trillion dollar loss. inflation hammers global bonds, sparking the biggest selloff on record. president biden takes his tough on russia message to nato as inflation -- as sanctions loom. plus it is cpi day as u.k.
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chancellor rishi sunak factors in the cost-of-living crisis. our drawdowns and the global bond index on record. it is the stock market that continues to rise, continues to rally. the s&p 500 has reached gains of 1% or more. this is the picture for the bloomberg ad, a drawdown of 2%. there is space for yields to come in because as inflation continues to rise, that will start to hurt growth. it will limit how much the fed can act. it is not the fed that is the one hampering growth, perhaps raising 25 basis points in subsequent meetings, but it might look more like the boe who have to turn more dovish because the impact of growth that commodities will have. certainly a different outlook if
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you look at all of the fear out there that the fed will break something. s&p 500 futures off the highs of the premarket section -- premarket session. european equities are doing stronger. the bond market losses are continuing. pushing higher by about one basis point. you are still looking at a more or less flat dollar. we are seeing strength in the pound. and brent crude off of its highs for the morning, up about 0.1%. to the u.k. where the country and the u.s. have reached a deal to ease tariffs on british steel and aluminum. the nations work to strengthen trade and integration. joining us now is lizzy burden. how significant is this deal and doesn't it take london closer to reaching a trade deal with
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washington -- does it take london closer to reaching a trade deal with washington? lizzy: it has been there for a long time, the trading relationship between those two countries, but the u.s. did reach similar agreements with the eu and japan earlier. because of the handling of tensions post brexit and northern ireland, so the u.s. trade refused to be drawn on when the negotiations would start for the formal trade deal. it seems to be a long way off even though it has been held up as a big prize on the european union. dani: we also get european economic data today. how much pressure does that put on soon echo -- sunak today? lizzy: it is all about the cost of living crisis, which we know
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was already bleak, driving energy and food prices higher. the bank of england says it could reach double digits this year. the pressure is massive on rishi sunak at his speech in parliament today to do his bit to push at the blow. boris johnson has always been someone who likes to have his cake and eat it, but soon i -- sunak has needed to manage the public finances after all of that public borrowing. the good news is that the public finance data yesterday didn't give him a bit of wiggle room to do more -- did give him a bit of wiggle room to do more. he is not going to want to outdo inflation himself, and he is going to want to meet pre-election giveaways. the strike today is to be a low tax, small state, prudent, yet
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generous chancellor, which is apollo order for a guy who admits he is vertically challenged -- a tall order for a guy who admits he is vertically challenged. dani: [laughter] thank you, that is lizzy burden. let's stay on this story. joining us now is anna titareva, penn european economist at ubs. i am curious about the situation the u.k. finds itself in now. lawmakers came out with a statement saying that the sanctions being put on russia will have economic consequences for the u.k. which is already suffering a cost-of-living crisis and therefore the government needs to support those most vulnerable. is that where we need to be right now with this divergence between tighter monetary policy and fiscal policy that helps to ease the crisis? anna: yes, when it comes to impact of sanctions, if we also
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compare u.k. versus the eurozone in terms of energy dependence, the u.k. is less exposed to the risk of energy rationing. however the rest of the world does get affected by the price tag. as you mentioned, the cost-of-living crisis is on top of the policymakers' agenda both from the boe perspective and also the treasury perspective. in that case it is a tricky situation and we do expect to see some announcements from rishi sunak later today to address this cost-of-living crisis. dani: how hampered is the boe in terms of tightening policy? they have inflationary issues on their hands, you have the fed that is turning really aggressive to fight this inflation. how does the boe straddle this line? anna: i think it is important to
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distinguish between the different starting points of the fed and the boe in the sense that we are starting to work out of the u.s., the u.s. seems to be more shielded from the impact of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. the u.s. is one of the major oil producers in terms of producing a lot of the foot commodities, so the u.k. is much more exposed to the increase in costs of various commodities. when it comes to the boe, it was very clear the dovish tilt in the policy decision at the meeting last week. they didn't turn much more cautious, -- they did turn much more cautious, given the fallout of the sanctions, so investors are turning more cautious, but they also flag the two cited risks to their policy outlook. we need to get more data before we can make a solid call in
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terms of how much more time -- tightening is likely to be necessary in the coming months. dani: let me take you to the wider economic picture. this forecast made by the dallas fed yesterday, they said that the bulk of russian energy export, if that is off the market for 2022, and economic downturn seems inevitable and they say this downturn could be more protracted than that of 1991, tilting their hat a different kind of oil crisis. do you share that same concern? anna: we didn't exercise where there are all of these global scenarios. one of that scenarios assumes that we get some sort of energy rationing, so that is the most painful scenario for europe where we get destruction in the
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energy supply. in that case, we do foresee a eurozone going interest session -- going into recession. however when the price for annual average growth would still remain in the positive territory and we would still expect the negative growth in the euro zone to gradually recover. of course, there are a lot of uncertainties the extent of russia as well. dani: i was going to say, is that your base case scenario, or how close is it to your base case scenario? anna: we do not expect the eurozone to go into recession. when we did our latest forecast revisions, we now expect the eurozone to grow 2.5 times this year and 2.2% year.
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we do see oil futures curving for the seventh of march, so we do incorporate a strong increase in energy prices. however we still expect the euro zone growth profile to remain in positive territory. we do expect to see a slowdown in the second or third quarter, but still remaining close to the territory. dani: not only have you modeled out the impact of oil, but you are also looking at defense spending in europe with mark european nations pledging spending in that area. what does that do to the long-term european outlook? anna: in our forecast revision, we did see more fiscal spending. part of that did come from stronger spending on defense. it is important to note that all of this fiscal spending is likely to mitigate some of the negative growth impact, but it
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is unlikely to fully offset it. also when we think about fiscal multipliers on this sort of spending, they are likely to be somewhere below the bar, so this fits well with our view that we are likely to see partial offset. in terms of long-term growth potential and gains from this sort of investment, at this point it is quite difficult to say how it is going to turn out. dani: one thing to go back to, i mentioned the dallas fed before, but one thing that stood out to me was that they talked about in terms of being able to cope with the current economic trauma caused by the horrific situation in ukraine. the places that would fare better on -- are places that have fully recovered from covid. and it comes to europe, how many scars still remain from covid
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with the specter of war in ukraine? anna: first of all, in terms of post-covid recovery, we still haven't seen a full rotation back in terms of consumption. we did see a strong growth number up until the last quarter of last year given the omicron outbreak. we did also bring down our expectations for growth in the first quarter, again due to the higher restrictions, but we have seen a bit with the covid crisis every subsequent slow down and round of restrictions has been much less painful. in terms of the impact of the current crisis, the russian-ukraine crisis, again we mentioned that countries that are more dependent on russian energy, for example, germany and italy, tend to suffer the most.
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of course, germany being more manufacturing in that country serves to suffer the most. dani: thank you for joining us this morning. anna titareva, pan european economist of ubs. let's get the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: the china eastern lines plane that crashed on monday was traveling close to the speed of sound moments before it crashed. such an impact may complicate the investigation because it can obliterate evidence. this suggests that the boeing 737-800 at times may have exceeded hundred 27 miles per hour. code restrictions amid the --
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data from the united states shows that more than a third of the covid cases were caused by the ba.2 variant. people in tangshan in china are not allowed to leave their buildings until further notice. the company is firing thousands of staff and is offering the largest package for the marine industry. the ceo has been asked to respond to a call on thursday. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani. dani: thanks so much. juliette saly in singapore. coming up, wall street's retreat from moscow is the fastest explosion of a major
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." wall street's retreat from moscow is perhaps the largest and fastest explosion of a major industrialized economy. dozens of companies had hundreds of dollars of exposure to russia. that is today's big take. joining us now is tom from our banking team. what is the current state of play when it comes to banking in russia at the moment? tom: being frozen is probably
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the best work -- work, so the big take shows that you have got big bankers who have nothing to do. you have got a lot of banks trying to work out if there is a way they can avoid taking that hit or if they have to hand off the key into their masco -- to their moscow operations and take the hit. dani: who has the most at stake in russia at the moment? tom: the austrians and rife us in bank as well as unicredit. that is because of big retail operations in europe so they are much harder to move. goldman sachs have really only had a handful of investment bakers -- bankers. on the u.s. side, citigroup came out saying they have got $9.8
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billion of exposure to the country. dani: is there any playbook of the past that the banks will look to to execute these changes? tom: this is unprecedented, certainly on the side of the economy. we have had sanctions in the past, but the finance was much more offshore. here you have actually got people on the ground, so that is really unprecedented. the situation right now is that sanctions comes in, things have been present, and a lot of eggs are trying to work out what to do. dani: thank you for keeping us updated as we try to figure out what the outlook looks like. you can read more online or on the terminal of today's big take. that is and i big take go. coming up, we get back to the big market story where the global index walked out to $.6 trillion. we talk about the equities in
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the global bond rout continues. the bloomberg mobile i could get index is on a high since 2021. on the short end of the treasury curve, it is having its worst quarter in four decades. joining us now is paul. when we think about corrections and the bear markets, we also think about stocks, funny percent that is the barometer we use, but it does not really work for bond markets. we are talking about an 11% drop
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from the peak. can you characterize for us how big of a deal this is? paul: absolutely. it is significant. you talk about the trillion dollar amount and that amount is huge, but also the size of this that we have had in the bond market, the relentless kind of lowering of prices that we have seen, a really significant event if you look at that drawdown. the bond market moves slowly and part of the moves tend to not get hurt all that month -- all that much is that you have coupon payments on the side. the yield are on a historical basis and coupons are so low on a historical basis that even then the amount the -- that is coming in is not enough to compensate for the prices that are declining. there are reasons for that. central banks have inflation very high, all interest that we
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get on the move on the yield as well. the indication that these are pretty big individual savers, the companies on the whole markets, so if you think about this, it is very much tension -- pension fund money that is being on the paper. the good news is that as we were saying, things have moved slowly and we have been in there for a long time, but a lot of people would have made a lot of money on the upside before we come to this slowdown. dani: implications are big for companies of the cost of capital might get more expensive. how do we explain and s&p that has rallied more than 1% in five of the past six sessions? paul: an excellent question. we have those going what is going on in singapore, they are
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uncomfortable on the bond markets, so this is happening as well. the people might think that it is a riot when fed hike's interest rates, but these are companies that are able to raise their prices and continue to get decent earnings, decent profit margins all the way through this process. there are obviously sectors that have been moving particularly strongly at this point in time. overall the market seems to be thinking, this is all right, this is ok. you might also have that flow of money as investors are not pulling out of things after they see higher yields. what are the alternatives? a lot of people are seeing valuations at these levels and why not have ago? look for the appreciation on the price. dani: you are a victim of your
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own success because that was such a solid explanation paid i want you to explain another conundrum to me and that is the bounceback we are seeing on china tech. what do you think about that? paul: exciting news we have been seeing. we are feeding and the policy is shifting over there is an china and hong kong right now, we are getting much more market friendly policies coming through. maybe not so much on the monetary side but also on the regulatory side, over the last 24 hours, and has been the buybacks by tech companies like alibaba. maybe we will get more in the coming days, which is supported from a supply and demand perspective. we think that those companies are allowed to make that extra room for the equity markets is very favorable for investors. dani: thank you so much on all things markets from u.s. stocks
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