>> even though this war doesn't feel like a direct hit to u.s. growth, the implications of the inflation stock can be major. >> we are preparing for tighter myla terry policy -- tighter monetary policy. >> we don't know how much of the inflation is transitory. >> the fed is very concerned that they are behind the curve. >> they certainly don't want to cause a recession, but if it is necessary to slow the economy to get inflation down, it seems like they would be willing to do so at this point. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

kailey leinz in for lisa. on radio, on television, an important friday. the president moves to poland. there's an important story, this time not about america. it is about the eastern front. jonathan: the refugee crisis and a security crisis as well. let's talk about the refugee crisis. 3 million ukrainian refugees, and the overwhelming majority of them have gone into poland. that is why this first stop is in a city very close to that border. tom: it is very important, and as the united states talks of taking in 100,000, it really shows the humanitarian moment. the president's focus is very much on the humanitarian issue. jonathan: what we can do next is hopefully some kind of energy agreement between the u.s. and the eu. from there, the germans want to

rapidly decrease their dependence on russian energy, and that is going to take a while. it is going to take years. tom: the domestic calculus is important. poland speaks loud in the congress. kailey: i think you are seeing the domestic pressures on the president, and that is why he has made many of the moves he has made. congress putting pressure on him to front run the u.s. oil and energy embargo. europe likely not going to follow suit, but the agreement today to at least step forward and starting to wean the european union off of russian gas, it is just a process that is going to take years, not months. tom: important economic data this morning, the michigan numbers. you mentioned goldman sachs research on the duration of inversion. we come in four basis points, make that five basis points to 18 basis points, the difference between two year and 10 year, ever narrower. jonathan: open forecasting several years of curve

inversion. go out another year, it is a similar story for them. an inverted yield curve for a couple of years. what does that mean for the equity market, and where is the economy while status happening? and your foyer facing a recession. tom: kishida of japan proposing that the president of the united states visit japan in late april. on data, i want to talk about something we rarely talk about. we parse brent and rest texas intermediate -- and west texas intermediate. all eyes are on diesel distillate right now. jonathan: energy prices have been climbing through the whole of this year. we climb back a bit on wti and brent. futures on the s&p and on the nasdaq higher by 0.3%. call it zero point 4% on the nasdaq. yields come in a single basis point on the 10 year, but they are higher on twos by three

basis points. the spread between the two is getting narrower. your curve is getting flatter. a quick because euro-dollar which just about holding onto 1.10 -- onto 110. tom: to get to the second quarter, no one better than geoff yu, senior strategist at bny mellon. it has moved from a greater negative to a lesser negative statistic. how much further does it have to go to give us any sense of normal markets? geoff: it is interesting you were talking about the curve back then. i do think that central bankers are going to start to be wary of what the curve is forget you want to push the real yield higher by another 50 or 100 basis points, and to actually get it outright positive because then demand destruction which may already be taking place, because of financial conditions

tightening further, is going to only intensify, so we are going to be looking at a growth shock further down the line. i think that is what the yield curve is telling you right now, that the central banks are not willing to push real yield or financial conditions much tighter from here before we start to worry about the stagflation a lot more than the inflation side. jonathan: they cut curve inversion year end 2022. year end, 2023. year for they've cut curve inversion again. how much longer could that invert and not see a recession? geoff: curve inversion can happen for no reason, but i think right now, clearly there are worries about demand destruction. at the same time, when we had them flatten 15 years ago, that was when the savings glut, and people went into u.s. treasuries, especially from asia. this time that will probably not happen as aggressively.

right now it just shows you there is no demand coming out of asia. we are worried about real income growth coming off of something that the u.k. has been highlighting as well. so again, markets are challenging the fed in how much you want to push this right now for you find out you have already done too much and it is already too late. jonathan: we find out because the market and often tells us. i wonder how much pushback we get from risk assets. at what point does this become really problematic even the calls we are hearing? 50 basis point hikes, balance sheet reduction in may. the likes of deutsche bank, bank of america out to $2 trillion through year end 2023. is that problematic for risk assets? geoffrey: it depends which type of risk assets. right now there's a fair amount of pricing. i would say i am much more worried about corporate credit. g10 markets, every single g10 market that we track in recent weeks has been facing outflows in corporate bonds.

no one wants to own that. if you look at the decline and say i want high-yield right now, we are only just halfway over what happened during the pandemic. i do think that one final injection of risk aversion or risk premia needs to happen in the corporate credit space. that is when we find out who is swimming naked. that has not happened yet. kailey: why are you not worried about equities? geoffrey: it is probably more an issue of what i my more worried about. in corporate credit, that repricing has not happened yet. truth be told, it may be harder when you have so much demand destruction, and when that happens, savings actually rise again because imports have come off in many traditional and current account deficit nations. so will international investment flow, especially in asian investors, are they still going to try to pick up yields and corporate paper in the u.s.? that is the uncertainty, and i don't think they will in the same amount this time around.

equity allocation, i think the rotation has already happened. kailey: at what point do we start to see the limits of companies' pricing power? geoffrey: i think it differs from place to place. in the u.s., i think as core cpi is running at readily high levels, or the gap is sufficiently low, then corporate will have pricing power. here's where the u.s. actually stands in a better position because the u.s. is not really a trade driven economy. most of it is domestic spending, much more self sufficient and targeted relative to europe and asia, some other areas. that is where, on a least worst case basis, the u.s. is much better than in europe. input ppis running at close to double digits, ppi headline less than 1% right now. that really damages margins as well, so i think you will see much more differentiation ahead when it comes to pricing power. jonathan: can we finish by taking you back to your

foreign-exchange days? can you tell me if in ecb hike is bullish for sterling? a lot of people question that now. geoffrey: ecb hike is bullish for europe because it will only hike when there is clear reflation in europe. boe hike will be negative for sterling because that just exacerbates cash flow. they are probably doing a bit too much. i see tremendous downside to risk expert patients further down the line. jonathan: big cuts ahead. thank you. this is what we are seeing take place around the world. you take the inflation outlook, you kick that much higher. you take the growth outlook and you absolutely/it -- absolutely slash it and bring that down lower. tom: all of my radar is up about confidence data, ism data. there is a certitude that central bankers will not respond

to it. my reading is i don't buy that for a moment. jonathan: what do we get later, u mich close to a decade low? kailey: while inflation expect asians for the next year are the highest since 1981. jonathan: and that is why we are talking about the potential of a 50 basis point move in may and morgan stanley has got them doing it again in june. . tom: i thought when you said kailey, i thought you meant that her bracket is better than ours. jonathan: i think it is, isn't it? tom: everyone's bracket is better than mine. jonathan: this is just relatively speaking, but the three of us are doing terribly, right? tom: i am acting like i am british and have no clue. kailey: there's 39 brackets. i think you are at 36. jon is at 31. jonathan: we are in the 30's. [laughter] just to be clear here, if i won, i would have claimed it is all me. but given i am losing come of this was producer jamie who

messed up the bracket. gonzaga is out. the whole thing is over for us. it's done. futures up 0.3% on the s&p. the nasdaq up 0.4%. yields higher at the front end of the curve and lower at the long end, down a basis point on tens. about an hour ago, the president of the united states leaving brussels on his way to poland. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. has struck a deal to help europe or place russian gas, which will lead to

additional imports of liquefied natural gas from the u.s. russia is the eu's biggest natural gas supplier, accounting for more than 40% of imports. nato is boosting deployment in the eastern portion of its defense lines. it will increase the number in the battle group of the region from four to eight. the economy in russia is on course for a deep recession, according to a bloomberg poll. russia's gdp will shrink 9.6% this year and 1.5% in 2023. meanwhile, inflation is forecast to average 20% this year. that would be the fastest rate in about two decades. the mystery is deepening over that crash of a china eastern airline boeing 737. at least one piece of the plane appears to have broken loose before the crash.

food delivery startup instacart is now facing decelerating growth, slashing valuations to about $24 billion. instacart says it is a move that will help attract talent. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: china understands that it's economics future is much more closely tied to the west then it is to russia. i made it clear to him to make sure he understood the consequences of him helping russia. jonathan: the president of the united states on china. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures up 0.3% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, a 0.4 percent. the response from vladimir putin moments ago, the russian president voting a video

conference with cultural figures. he says the west is attempting to cancel russian culture. that headline just dropping moments ago. tom: i saw the video on the break, and he was really engaged. his body language, talking as an amateur, was as i have never seen. he was fully engaged. it was very different than the putin measured and controlled we have known for years. jonathan: we have seen him fired up and some of these news conferences. that is for sure. tom: let's get to a fired up henrietta treyz, director of economic policy research at veda partners. you know that every poll says congress wants more from this president. what is the kind of pressure washington is placing on president biden? henrietta: the polling data says everyone in the united states supports everything from

providing more military might to ukraine, even taking in ukrainian refugees. the main floor republicans have with president biden and us that he is not moving quickly enough, that they want to see more, and simultaneously, is the president doing enough on ukraine, and they say no. so every indicator is that they say we support this effort to provide assistance to ukraine, whether militarily or in terms of additional sanctions on russia, and what that has led to is a slew of legislation out of members from the house and senate across crypto, gold, capital markets. it is across the board. they have told us directly that that is designed to message not just to voters, but also to the president that they support him taking whatever measures he sees fit. tom: i am enough of a fossil to remember when the eastern european vote had huge weight, particularly in the midwest. i see from the statistics it is

not as much as it used to be 30, 40 years ago. but measure that weight right now. what is the eastern european voice in washington? henrietta: i think you could ask jd vance about that. there are individual senators, people running for office who are, especially on certain sides of the aisle, trying to figure out where the american public is on this. it is evolving very rapidly, and the collect support for engagement in support of ukraine is unlike anything we have seen an american history in quite some time, where it has been so fractured and polarized. so you can see where the pockets of poland, ukraine, other eastern european regions are in the united states, across ohio and the midwest, based on how those individual congressmen and folks running for senate are responding. in a couple of cases, they have had to recalibrate whether quickly once they get response from their constituents and see that even though this is costing americans at the pump, inflation is high, and we are all coming off of the pandemic come of this

is a global rally. there's a healthy amount of questioning from experts, in particular military folks, to say how long is this going to last, how long will that support remain, so that is a tricky question and part of the reason why president biden went to the eu this week to provide the optics to continue engagement, get those shots of nato allies working together, which united states citizens have not seen in quite some time. jonathan: the risk of chemical warfare, a lot of discussion about that. energy dependence, what we can do to help the europeans, to curtail the dependence on russian energy. the third point, china's role in all of this. had a couple of comments from the president of the united states. i does wonder how much projects -- how much progress we have made. henrietta: i think the keyword for the entire situation is forewarning. the administration, the white house is telegraphing well in

advance to investors and constituents alike what we should be expecting. whether that is the original invasion, cybersecurity, fears about chemical weapons, i think that the market is remiss to ignore this focus of the president is plainly targeting on china. when you speak with staff and they say their support for adding russia, belarus, and china to the tmt are stripping legislation, that is very serious. it is no longer framed democratic or rib public and thinking. it is mainstream, especially on the house side. so all of this forewarning i think is something we should take seriously. everything the present has said in the past has come to for wishon, and i don't know that there should be this piece trade out there, given as robust as it is. kailey: you talked about the risks that the president has

been tear about. has he been clear enough on the warnings of what the response will be? he continues to warn of consequences, yet do we really know what they are if russia crosses a redline? henrietta: i think that depends on what your redline is. i think we have the benefit of hindsight and experience from past engagements, whether in syria or elsewhere, to know that we need to classify exactly what kind of chemical weapons will result in which type of response. i think the president is doing something that is discomforting to the street, not giving clear, cut and dry redline examples, but as we learn from president obama and others, you run a risk when you put a redline in there that is too specific or vague, consensus is expecting one outcome, we get another, and you really have to keep your leverage, your ability to maneuver, as wide as possible, and create uncertainty.

one of the things putting putin off, and i heard from a speaker on your program yesterday, is the business community. the government might wobble and go back and forth, but if the business community is self sanctioning the way that they have, with coke and pepsi pulling out, major and oil and gas pulling outcome of those are things that no one expected to see, so to see that engagement i think is really constructive in an area where president biden cannot actually give redline answers. jonathan: henrietta, thank you. tom keene, we are going to continue this conversation. citi have just come out with a monster call on the federal reserve. 50 basis point hikes in may, june, july, september, then 25 in october and december. tom: i can't even do that math. help me here. jonathan: it is a monster call

from andrew hallman horst and his team. we will revisit this. back to back, back to back 50 basis point hikes, four in a row. more still to come. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures positive on the s&p end on the nasdaq. the nasdaq up 0.4%. in the bond market, yields in a couple of basis points on tens. on twos, yields bleeding a little higher on the front end. your two-year up to 2.16. it could be more if citi turns out to be right. take a look at this. a monster call from andrew hallman horst and the team, including veronica clark. they are making this call. 50 basis point hikes, may, june, july, september. 20 five in october and december. we end the year at 2.75%.

we end the next year, the next year, because they think it continues after that, at close to 3.50% to 3.75%. tom: i will go from the idiocy of the parlor games, 50 bps, 25 bps, none of this call from citi is within the dots. their terminal rate is centered tendency 3.625 percent. that is a stunning statistic. jonathan: it is not near the median., but close to jim bullard's world. tom: is it close to bill dudley, mohamed el-erian's world? jonathan: maybe. he things it is a binary choice between risking recession or prolonging inflation. he thinks the least bad choice to block inflation is to not go too hard. tom: the least bad choice is l

arian -- is el-erian game theory. we will go to ian shepherdson, who is fortunate enough to be in the studio. you have to frame glide paths or reaction functions. do you see glide paths that get us to that stunning kind of move that mr. hollen horst speaks of? ian: not in the timeframe they are looking at. tom: the x axis is the point of discussion here. ian: indeed. i am very much of the view that the terminal rate will be way higher than markets think, but i am also of the view that it will take longer to get there than citi are now suggesting. i don't have a problem with the idea that we will end up well into the threes, and we may even hit 4% by the end of the cycle, but i don't think we will get there at that sort of speed. tom: this is about the elasticity or responsiveness of the economy? if you get there short-term out two years, you go boom to

economic growth, don't you? ian: even if you think ultimately the economy can live with rates that high, getting there that quickly is going to really put a lot of stress very rapidly onto the private sector, and will require a great deal of calibration about how things work. i am really skeptical. they may well get the first couple of 50's, but to carry on at that sort of pace, this is 1994 all over again in terms of the speed and the scale of the hikes, and that ended up being very messy for the bond market. the economy did not go into recession, but it was certainly under a lot of stress. i am nervous that this is asking a lot for an economy or there are probably some fragilities that we don't even know of yet coming out of the pandemic. jonathan: we have to talk about the data, and in the line from citi is the path remains at a dependent. they believe that the risks to inflation are still to the upside for the second half of

the year. would you agree with that assessment? ian: this is where i differ with them. i think the glide paths for inflation may be a soon as the second quarter is going to be quite steeply to the downside. i am feeling optimistic about vehicle prices, 10% of the core cpi, with some huge increases this spring. but i also think the sequential numbers are going to be falling because we are seeing auction prices decline and supplies improved. that makes a big difference to where you think inflation will get to by the end of the year, and the speed at which it comes down over the summer. it is surprising markets, media, and the fed to the downside, the pressure to keep going by 50 is much diminished. that may be where i differ with them. i do think it is going to remain very elevated, than they will have to go more aggressively. but nobody knows. we are in very much unprecedented circumstances. jonathan: what using the strategy is? front load it, wait until the

summer? ian: i think they need to get a grip on the expectations, the idea that they have got behind the curve and they have left it too long. i think they need to start making signals, and we are hearing that verbally in the dots and in powell's press conferences that they want to be seen to be getting a grip on it. but i think the narrative changes as we get into the spring and the summer, where if those numbers come to the downside, and may be of growth does not have the traction we all hope it has come of the first quarter headlines are going to look quite soft because of inventories. there's a huge question mark over how the household sector responds to energy prices. i think it will be ok, but i don't know. it will depend on how willing people are to run down some of their savings, and maybe they say we don't want to, in which case we will see some real sustained weakness. that would suggest that starting with 50 may be, but keeping going meeting after meeting, that is a big ask. kailey: you talk about how

things could get better as soon as the second quarter, but there's obviously an ongoing war in ukraine. is your interpretation that that is not just going to show up as much in the u.s. economy as it will for europe? ian: there's no question that the difficulties for europe are much greater on the back of the war in ukraine. they are much more exposed to energy prices. energy prices were already a huge problem for europe, even before the invasion, and much more direct economic connections with russia. there's no doubt. it is even worse for emerging markets, where people spend more of their income on food and energy than we do in any western economies, and where people buy much more raw, unprocessed food, so they will see a much bigger hit. this theme is actually quite small. this is a big domestic closed economy, really. tom: the cottage industry of physics in economics

, i would suggest the united kingdom has really studied the nonlinearities of when you make moves. what citigroup is recommending here is an inertial force upon the economy that is essentially, i believe, if alan meltzer of carnegie mellon was here, he would say we have never seen this before, this kind of physic move in raising rates. we have any experience of this? ian: we raise rates very aggressively in the early 1990's, but the level of rates was higher. the gearing in the economy was low. tom: stanley fisher would say the gearing was different. ian: very different. this is why we've had the downward trend in nominal rates. the u.k. is an interesting example. it is the western economy that looks most like the u.s. there are some differences, brexit, but the bank of england's signaling they won't be raising rates very rapidly. citi is talking about is a massive widening of spreads

between short rates and you are that short rates in europe and the u.s. it is the scale of the cap they are suggesting in such a short space of time that will be difficult. tom: when we invented this program, we said just book smart people, then when news breaks, it works out. he killed it. jonathan: can i ask you whether you think wall street, maybe even the city of london, is missing the mood of the country at the moment? do you think it is? ian: if you look at the consumer confidence numbers pretty much everywhere now, we have seen numbers out of europe, they have fallen off a cliff with the ukraine war. he were weak anyway, but the question is is spending, is gdp the same as sentiment? if it isn't, if people say one thing and do the other, if you are expecting the sentiment numbers to lead to a very weak economy, you could be getting it

completely wrong. the reason why that might be such a big difference is in the u.s., households are sitting on trillions of dollars of savings they accumulated during the pandemic, so they may well say when the conference board of the university of michigan comes along, i feel terrible, but they still go to the mall because the money is there. we have never seen this before. that mix forecasting with any competence very difficult. i am glad citi said their forecast was data dependent because everything is very data dependent, and we need to admit, i think, the limit of our knowledge here because we are facing uncertainty like we have never had before. jonathan: has it been helpful to you to be headquartered in news castle -- in newcastle, away from london? has that contributed to a difference in opinion and outlook, a different way of thinking about the economy? ian: i don't do the cocktail parties in london or new york, so i maybe think about things differently, but ultimately i am following the data like everyone else. the data at the moment are

extreme lee confused, extremely confusing, and the cone of uncertainty is bigger than i have known it in 30 years. jonathan: is the season-ticket back? ian: i do want it back. tom: april 3, it beckons. tottenham, newcastle. jonathan: in newcastle. do you know how hard it will be to get tickets to that? i don't think people realize how difficult it is to get tickets for a newcastle game. what are the chances that you actually get your season-ticket back for next year? ian: that depends on how willing i am to close my eyes and write the big check. quite willing at this point. tom: if adele shows up to watch her tots at newcastle, how is adele treated? ian: i'm sure she would be invited. jonathan: have you ever seen a newcastle fan, tom? the day after christmas, i went to a game in the midlands. supercold. freezing. newcastle fans pack out the home

stadium. great away attendance as well. the newcastle fans, tops off, shirts off in the freezing cold in late december. tom: adele would never do that. jonathan: newcastle fans are some of the topics out there that's the toughest out there. -- the toughest out there. ian: the or wearing beer coats, jon. the ukraine situation is grim, but the saudi take over has been very welcome after the disaster. jonathan: someone wrote in the game is in london, not a newcastle. tom: oh yeah, chelsea is in london. jonathan: so adele doesn't have to travel. i thought you mentioned spurs versus newcastle. tom: that is april 3. jonathan: someone has just written in the geordies who come in their swim shorts. that is from a terminal subscriber. [laughter] from new york this morning, good

morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. u.s. officials are worried that russian president vladimir putin may lash out dangerously. they say putin's tendency when boxed in to escalate rather than back down. speculation is that putin might respond by using chemical or even nuclear battlefield weapons. the european union officials suspect china they try to soften the impact of sanctions imposed on russia. they say beijing may be ready to supply semiconductors and other tech hardware to moscow. china's potential influence on russia was a central issue in those talks in brussels. canada says it will help nations trying to shift away from russian energy by increasing oil and gas exports. the canadian resources minister said energy producers can boost

shipments by the equivalent of 300,000 barrels a day. he said canada and the u.s. already had the pipeline capacity to handle the extra volume. the u.s. and the european union have agreed in principle to a new data transfer packed that potentially efforts a doomsday scenario for tech giants such as facebook parent meta platforms and others who rely on free flows of information. a previous agreement was struck down due to concerns over the power of a -- of american agencies to snoop on data. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: the united states, together with our international

partners, we are going to work to ensure an additional 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas for europe this year. >> this will replace the lng supply we currently receive from russia. tom: the president of the united states on his way to warsaw, in brussels with ursula von der leyen and, with her unique german knowledge. an important meeting earlier this morning. we are monitoring the president in the next hour to land in warsaw. right now is my interview of the day, and not that i am just back from paris and it was an extraordinary joy to see paris preparing for the olympics, but because he is hugely qualified with his public service to the french nation on this moment of war. he is the french ambassador to the united states, but far more, he has had tours of duty particularly in romania. he understands eastern europe

perhaps more than anyone in the show. thank you so much for doing bloomberg. >> thank you very much for having me. tom: i cannot speak to you of the domestic politics of france. i believe that is off-limits this morning. but i can speak to you of when i am in london and i get on the train, i go under the channel and i come out. there are the fields of wheat of france. you are in the absolute agricultural nexus of the rich helping the poor with limited food at this moment. how will france help the poor of the world with their wheat and other agricultural products? >> it is one of our duties and one of the initiatives. we have decided that one of the summits in brussels. france is an important producer of wheat, but we have to collectively help the world community to face a food security crisis, which is one of

the threats caused by the russian invasion of ukraine. the first thing to do is to demand a cease-fire in ukraine for the ukrainian people first, but also because it would be the only way to allow the ukrainians to prepare for the next harvest. but we have also indeed initiatives to increase production, to increase coordination internationally, to help all of the countries which are the most vulnerable in the world and who depend on imports of wheat. tom: the president speaks of 100,000 refugees coming 2 america. it seems like a tragic statistic given the millions coming over the border to poland, romania, and the rest. cannot statistic be had -- can that statistic be had? philippe: france is holding the

rotating presidency of the council of the european union, and as soon as the war started and refugees started to come into the eu, we decided to give the ukrainian refugees more than 3 million arriving to the european union to provide them with special protection status. they are schooled. they have access to health care, two jobs. we have been doing this immediately. of course, the refugees first come to poland, romania, slovakia, hungary, moldova. but you see everywhere, including in france, huge movement of solidarity for the tens of thousands of ukrainian refugees which are already in france and italy, and germany. they are coming to us, and as the eu we have taken very quick and bold measures to welcome them. kailey: he spoke of poland,

where the president of the united states is expected to land in just about a half an hour. before he did so, he was in brussels with ursula von der leyen and i nothing that agreement on u.s. lng. what is the french feeling this morning about its energy security and whether or not it is able to wean itself off of russia? philippe: even if france is a bit less dependent on imports from russia than other eu countries, it is for us as a presidency of the european union , it is a common problem. it is a european problem. european leaders were convened by our president in versailles two or three weeks ago, and decided to stop the dependency on russian imports of energy and to increase in other fields, food, critical materials, the resilience of our economy. it is a huge lesson to learn, and we will transform decisively the european union. to get rid of this dependency of imports from russia and energy

means first to accelerate our transition and also to diversify our supply. from this point of view, the agreement which has been announced by the united states and the european union about 15 billion cubic meters additional of americans apply to europe is really important, and we will diversify supplies so that we get rid of this dependency as quickly as possible. tom: on the river seine, those bright gold domes stick out like a sore thumb. it is the russian architecture of the russian orthodox church. explain to us the new relationship that you know so well with your representation, the new relationship you will perceive of russia with paris and france. philippe: for the time being, of course we need to stop this war. the relation is mostly that our

president is amongst the leaders who has decided to continue to talk to the russian president, to tell him that a cease-fire is absolutely necessary. humanitarian access is absolutely necessary. while we raise the sanctions and the price paid by russia for this invasion, and the sanctions are really important now, we have to first, as an absolute priority, get a cease-fire, and we are doing this in close coordination with the president of ukraine. once there is a cease-fire, there could be negotiations, and once there could be negotiations , we could turn to the structure. but the absolute priority is a cease-fire. tom: thank you for joining us this morning, philippe etienne, french ambassador to the u.s. it is something to see the holy trinity church of russia. you wonder how that relationship will be.

kailey, thank you for helping out while i was gone. thank you for being here for lisa. futures up 15, dow futures up 87. stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ >> welcome back to another miami open update for bloomberg tv and radio, from tennis channel. thursday saw a major upset in the women's draw as the prestigious masters 1000 event. katerina siniakova stunned the reigning u.s. open champion emma raducanu. fighting back from a set down to snap an eight-match losing streak against top 20 opponents. >> i think it is much better. i was really working hard. i am so happy it worked.

>> and naomi osaka won the battle of the major champions as she took out angelique kerber in a straight sets victory. don't forget tennis channels live debris -- live daily coverage begins at 11:00 a.m.

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jonathan: live from new york city, your equity market, one third of 1% higher on the s&p. the countdown to the open starts right now.

>> everything you need to good start for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg to open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the u.s. and the eu striking a deal. pres. biden: today, we have agreed on a joint game plan. we are coming together to reduce europe's dependence on russian energy. jonathan: ursula von der leyen confirming that unity. >> we continue to reinforce our cooperation in many strategic ways. the u.s. commitment to provide the european union with additional at least 15 billion cubic meters of lng this year is a big step in this direction. . jonathan: