>> the markets are challenging the fed, how much do you want to push this right now? >> if inflation runs away from the fed even more than it is now, we are all a lot worse off. >> high inflation has generally been neutral because it is passed on. >> there's a huge question over how the household sector response to the surge in food and energy prices. >> the fed can bring down inflation without harming growth or the labor market, but it is admittedly narrow. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p slightly positive. the headlines are in the treasury market. tom: what this is about is the rate of change of the rate of

change. out of control is maybe a little forced, but this is an important monday for the markets. what it signals is a fed on the move. jonathan: the front end making a marriage of -- making a major move in the spread getting narrow and narrow. for the fed payrolls report, validate that effort. tom: april 1 is the jobs report. an early report this month, and it is going to be really important if it describes a fully employed america and a relatively good economy. jonathan: does any of this data start to speak to consumer confidence, which is rock-bottom? we sighed again on friday. lisa: the line out of some of the bulls is watch what they do, not what they say. is that really still the case? retail sales come in weaker than expected. people start to say they are starting to delay big purchases

of certain items. how much does this start to feed into the data, and we are all looking for that and what we get this week. jonathan: does the consumer pullback given where inflation is printing month after month after month in this economy? tom: i do not share that gloom, but i share the idea that economic growth is paramount given the financial dynamics. that is what you see in japan area that is what you see in europe area the russian headlines over the last two hours showing those dynamics. we will get all of the micro data points that give us a measurement of real and nominal gdp. jonathan: you know lisa is itching to get back in here and get back at you. lisa: i know everyone portrays me is gloomy, and i am not coming out and saying everybody should get rid of everything and hide in a bunker. the whole point is if you have 20% of household budgets, food and energy, 20% or more that his mortgage payments or rent, and you start to see those increased dramatically, then

people will have less money to spend elsewhere. we are already seeing that borne out in the data. it is not gloom. it is fact. tom: she would slap me if we were in the same room together. that's all there is to it. it is a very interesting debate. what i know is that when you get a seismic change in markets like we have, it affects different deciles of the public differently. jonathan: do you all here that massive sigh of relief that you don't have to get in a bunker and hideaway? thank you for clarifying that, lisa. on the nasdaq, we are unchanged as well. [laughter] yields up by a basis point on tens. this is why tom and lisa are separated. 2.48 25% on the tenure right now . crude down by 4.8% which $108 cash by 4.8%, $108 -- 4.8%, by

$108. lisa: we get fed speakers including fed governor chris waller, new york fed president john williams, san francisco fed president mary daly, richmond fed president. watch for the twos-tens, the five 30's inverting for the first time going back to 2006. do they care, or do they want to see this in order to crimp demand? today we get treasury auctions, including $50 billion of two-year notes at 1:00 p.m.. two-year notes are really interesting to me. we have seen this dramatic shift. people were saying it is not where we go, it is how quickly we get there. still we see risk assets holding in, which goes back to the resilience of the consumer point, which is the reason i am so focused on it. at 2:45 p.m., president biden announcing his fiscal year 2023 budget.

it will be all about reducing the deficit, of course about what is not being called the billionaire tax, but what everyone will call the billionaire tax, a tax on ultra wealthy individuals. how much do we offset some of the increased outlays, and how much focus on mitigating the next downturn, given that the federal reserve will not have all that ammunition? they might hike that much and then drop rates down, but how much does that become the discussion? tom: let's keep it on the president of the united states. a week of diplomacy in brussels, in poland. all down to one line from the president. pres. biden: for god's sake, this man cannot remain power. jonathan: it was billed as the most significant speech of biden's presidency for the best part of five minutes, and the walk back kicked in. >> as you know, we do not have a strategy of regime change in russia, or in anywhere else, for that matter. jonathan: team coverage starts now with lou briggs, reordering in warsaw -- with bloomberg's

annmarie hordern in warsaw. what does the walk back look like right now? annmarie: we're not sure exactly what the president meant, but this was clearly unscripted. these nine words at the end of a hallmark speech that ran for about 15 minutes got a ton of crowd applause and cheers when he mentioned nato, humanitarian aid, but the entire speech has been overshadowed when he said this man should not remain in power. was he just exasperated at the moment with everything going on? he met with refugees earlier in the day face-to-face, and in that moment he told reporters he thought president putin was a butcher. now you have the walk back. the white house has been working overtime over the weekend since he said those words. we heard from secretary of state antony blinken and the president himself leaving, was asked, is this what you meant about regime change for the united states and their position on the criminal and russia?

he gave a frank "no," but potentially what the president thinks pertinently. tom: maria, you are in berlin. explain the choice of words between germany and brussels after the trip. maria: for many it is disbelief and disappointment. for many it was a sad ending of a trip that was going very well, and it completely overshadowed everything that was accomplished at nato and completely overshadowed the message that came out of the european summit friday. the whole thing about this trip was to put the focus on unity and speaking with the same voice, and in particular, we speak to officials in brussels, but also the french president very vocal about this, saying what is the point of using this language. at this point, we want to get a cease-fire, pull the troops back and stop this war. if you call vladimir putin a butcher and suggest you want him removed from power, it plays

directly into russian propaganda. we have to stay very clear and coolheaded. so overall, the major capitals in europe, there was this idea that this was a very bad mistake, that the sentence took away everything that was accomplished over a week of diplomacy. lisa: let's talk about what was accomplished, including the agreement that the eu and u.s. came to to supply liquefied natural gas. how hard is that go towards independence from russian supply? maria: we had this big lng deal that would neutralize just a fraction of the gas that comes from a pipeline into the european union, but of course, the eu billed this as the beginning of a new friendship between the united states and the european union when it comes to gas and energy independence. the german chancellor also said we are moving away from russia, and this won't be turned back. this is irreversible. we are not going to go back to the old status quo.

you had emmanuel macron announce on friday a mission by the greeks, the turks, and the french together to try to get people in mariupol. if you know the tension between the french government, the greek government, and the turkish government, it does show at this point that the humanitarian angle is uniting europeans. it goes back to my earlier point, a lot of this is overshadowed by the debate we are having today as to whether or not the united states once -- the united states wants vladimir putin out of power. this plays directly into the russian propaganda that this is not about ukraine, not about the people of ukraine, that this is about getting vladimir putin out of power. jonathan: before we go, you are in berlin today, not brussels. you are sitting down with the german finance minister. can you tell me what topics you are really going to be hitting on this afternoon? maria: this is a conversation we are going to have with christian lindner. he wants to talk about the stimulus program needed not just

for germany, but also the european union. the question is whether or not we get something that looks like a pandemic stimulus program. he also says at this point, and a lot of this is demoed control from germany, the germany once to lead a marshall plan for ukraine come of this country that was destroyed after the second world war get that is very emotive language ---- after the second world war. that is very emotive language to use. they believe that security and energy were separate, that the politics and the trade were separate. for this government, it has been a wake-up call. jonathan: what a moment. really looking forward to this. maria tadeo sitting down with the german finance minister, a fireside chat, and exclusive conversation a little bit later. the highlight we will bring u.s. soon as that wraps up. tom: i'm looking at the german two-year, positive 20 year

swiss, positive 10 year yield. the german, -0.99%. it is a tipping point for german finance. jonathan: we start this conversation with u.s. consumer confidence absolutely rolling over. decade lows. german business confidence collapsing last week. german business confidence really week. lisa: this comes as we see that inflationary pressure and they are reliant on russian oil, and they are reliant on russian gas. how do they move away from that quickly enough to really offset this at a time when consumers are reaching a breaking point? jonathan: there's a lot going on in this bond market. we will be catching up with matt diczok of merrill a little later on. this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa matteo.

president biden is trying to clarify his stunning comments that vladimir putin should be removed from office. he said that he was not calling for regime change. european allies raised concerns about the president's remarks and critics say he was further inflaming tensions with russia. russia's oil exports fell 26% from the week before. moscow is facing a growing movement by many of its usual customers to find alternate energy supplies after the invasion of ukraine. only a handful of nations have imposed explicit embargoes on russian imports of oil. the revival of a nuclear deal with iran may not happen. iran has made a number of requests recently, including that washington removes the islam at revolutionary guard from its list of terrorist organizations. the u.s. is reassuring the political cost of reviving a nuclear pack.

president biden will propose what they would housecalls the billionaire minimum income tax. it calls for a and him him 20% tax rate that would hit both the income and unrealized capital gains of households with more than $100 million. aggressive lawmakers have complained that the tax does little to tax the richest americans. a stunning moment at the oscars. after will smith slapped presenter chris rock and was later awarded the oscar for best actor. rock joked with smith -- joked that smith's life could be in the next "g.i. jane" movie. she has short hair. she has alopecia, a disease that causes hair loss. smith later apologized, but did not mention rock. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the president, the white house, made the point last night that president putin cannot be in power and wage war against ukraine or anyone else. as you know, and as you have heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a regime change -- a strategy of regime change in russia, or anywhere else for that matter. jonathan: secretary blinken with some clarifying remarks after the president's comments over the weekend.

on the nasdaq, up a little more than 0.1%. in the bond market, things fade quickly. your 10 year yield is not higher. it is lower by a basis point. your two-year is back down to 2.3%. the high of the session was 2.40%. the picture changes quickly on twos-tens. we get back up to about 16 basis points, the spread between the two. got as low as nine earlier on. tom: you look at the blinking screen, weevil got -- we've all got our different launch pads, i would suggest on a monday it is a very active screen. jonathan: in this bond market has been all of the place from one minute to the next. that has been true this morning as well. tom: the real yield coming in a lesser negative yield. right now, maybe your most important conversation of the day, we are fixated on yield, fixated on bond price. sarah hunt look at -- sarah hunt looks at equities, upon woods --

alpine woods portfolio manager. it can be the idea of an etf, a given bond market etf, that i don't know if it is a bear market, but it is a pretty ugly number, -11% on price. and yet equities are resilient. is it just money choosing? is it flow from fixed income to equity? sarah: i think it is the same problem we have been seeing since you've had interest rates at such historic low. it has cut people a little off guard, and i think there is some belief that equities have more safety in them, and i think it is difficult when bonds have more volatility than things that are supposed to be volatile, like bitcoin. this move is just taking people very much by surprise. tom: do you have a gauge of the

revenue line of the corporations you follow, the ones you like, the ones you hold, the ones you sell? is it an estimation that nominal gdp will give us better revenue growth than anyone cares to admit? sarah: i think part of the upside of inflation in people's minds is that you will have disinflation and revenues. i think what is not being thought about is deeply is what that does to margins and costs on the other side. in the beginning you have higher prices. as the costs start to catch up, it becomes a much more difficult balance between can i keep my margins and still be raising my revenue lines are not. that is why in the near term, the equities have an advantage, but there is some question as to how all of these costs that will not be as easy to fix as people are hoping come down. that includes the energy prices, a big part of what is going on here that will flow through to a lot of other things besides just

energy prices themselves. lisa: drilling down into the granularity of markets and equities more broadly, how much can you bet on consumer discretionary that a time like this? sarah: i have to say sorry, but i am in camp lisa on this one. i am concerned the all of these prices will lead to different spending choices and worry that they will not have enough money to deal with things like higher energy price bills, higher heating bills, higher cooling bills for the summer, and higher food prices. i do think if it makes people more cautious about what they spend, you have the conflicting aspect of coming out of the pandemic, but also a little bit of excitement that are competing forces at the moment. if you don't have some change in longer-term energy prices, i think that really does affect consumer psychology. tom: what is important here, camp lisa is a lot like "total drama island." the swim test alone is enough to kill you.

jonathan: camp lisa is like a place you might not want to go to. what happens at camp lisa? what goes on there? [laughter] lisa: you just walk around feeling kind of gloomy. in all honesty, you look at the data, getting back to this point you are raising. this idea of not wanting to go into consumer discretionary's at a time of pressure on some of these households. what counts as discretionary? is it an apple phone, and iphone? is it a natural watch -- is it an apple watch? is it these basic mainstays of households that used to be discretionary, but perhaps no longer are? sarah: i would argue something like apple went from being discretionary to something, can you imagine? when you leave your phone at home, it is like some been terrible has happened. i'm not sure it is discretionary as, on the margin, on the travel and entertainment side coming to put something off longer.

if you are excited to travel, maybe you only take one trip instead of two. that is another thing that is still problematic. you're seeing oil down partially on the fact that china is once again having issues and is trying to curtail covid by shutting things down. i think there is so much going on, it is very difficult to parse people -- to parse each and every piece. ultimately, all of the factors have moved towards higher g -- higher energy prices and higher food prices. it is still going to be a problem. jonathan: i cannot keep up with this market at the moment. sarah, thank you. she ducks out and heads toward camp lisa. sort of burrows underground. tom: did you have this in england, where you get the little cheerios box, cut the box open and put the milk in, and it is powdered milk because you went to camp lisa? lisa: is that what -- jonathan: is that what they do their? you don't pour it out into a bowl?

lisa: a lot of those little boxes, you can open up so you can pour the milk in. jonathan: i didn't know that. lisa: it is inadvisable. jonathan: can we talk about the range in this bond market? 1.25%, the low of the month on tenure. that is the range on the month. let's talk about the range on the session. you get the equity market push-up a bit more, up 0.2% on the s&p. on the euro stoxx 50, up 1.9% to a nice rally, picking up over on the continent. tom: it is a correlated mass within the regime change. it is real simple. the bloomberg total return series, logarithmic. we did that last week. jonathan: is this week's data

about whether we need to move 50 or whether we should not move 50? lisa: or is it about whether or not -- as the consumer faces some of these headwinds? jonathan: futures up 0.2%. still thinking about camp lisa, tk. ♪

jonathan: i think we are all looking at the same thing, they relationship between the equity market in the bond market, and asking if there is one. the equity market right now up 0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, too. on the month, up almost 4% on the nasdaq 100, even with this monster move in the bond market. the low for march, 1.29 93%. it came on the first trading day of march. look at it now, close to bridging 2.40% and running away this morning. that is a massive turnaround on twos. at one point we had the three year, the five-year come of the seven-year-old trading above the 10 year and the 30 year yield. that inverted and then backing

away, which explains maybe what we are seeing in the equity market at the moment. just pushing a little bit higher compared to where we were maybe an hour or so ago. so we think we know what the federal reserve may or may not do in that six months. we also think we know what the boj will not do, and that is get involved in this rate hiking cycle. dollar-yen through 120 five. unreal. just short of that level now. this months, this currency pair up by 7% to 8% in a single month. that is a major move in the fx market. tom: i looked at a bunch of trade-weighted series today, and it is not quite through to record trade-weighted weakness on yen come about what i would suggest is a lot of detentions you see in japan modeled back to the early 1990's. jonathan: what is amazing about this is the federal reserve's engineering higher interest rates, higher yields essentially, an event of japan

is not tolerating it. if anything, it is trying to cap them, keep them down as the rest of the global bond market sells off. lisa: the other thing is the ecb is concerned about the weakness in the euro versus the dollar. do they care about this kind of weakness, or is it actually going to increase some of the experts? jonathan: it's what i have been looking for for a long time. they have been trying to buy some inflation. that the yen might help them get there. some big moves cross asset. there's your cross asset price action. some single names now. let's say good morning to kailey leinz. kailey: some big moves on the individual stock level as well. one of the main stories this moaning is tesla. shares are up nearly 6% in early hours after the company said it will ask shareholders at its annual meeting to authorize issuing more shares for a stock split. the last time tesla split its stock, august 2020. stock trading at $1067.

that came after news over the weekend that tesla had to shut down its factory in shanghai until april 1 due to the partial closer -- partial closure because of the covid outbreak. speaking of production related issues, the nikkei reporting overnight that it is cutting production -- nikkei reporting overnight it is cutting production of its iphone se. corvo down because it is also downgraded by goldman sachs this moaning. a quick check on stocks moving intended with other assets, we have oil moving lower today, but bitcoin moving higher. coinbase is up by about 4.4%, a lift for crypto related stocks across the board, but downward pressure for energy stocks. occidental and exxon mobil down 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. tom: thanks so much.

a small deal, but for those of a certain vintage, a name from another time and place. long ago there was plantronics, and it was a glory of a small-cap stock from three dollars of $277, and just a complete debacle to $26. all cash, hp. jonathan: what do they do? tom: they do headphones, stuff like that. jonathan: are they good headphones? tom: not those kind of headphones. they're not like you listen to tyler the creator. they are like when you are like, jon ferro is online too. that kind. jonathan: thanks for explaining that. tom: that is an interesting story there. thierry wizman remembers this at bear stearns years ago. not plantronics, but on interest rates and currencies. i am honored you are on today, and i want to link it right into

macquarie, which is aussie-yen. when we move like we move, things happen. what should we be paying attention to this weekend, three standard deviation long renminbi, three standard deviation long aussie, etc.. what should we focus on? thierry: we still have to focus on what central bank's will do over the next few weeks. we think they are going to potentially raise that cap on 10-year gilts. tom: they will go from 0.25 out to something new? thierry: maybe 0.3 to 0.4, somewhere in that range. i think at some point there's going to be a lack of tolerance for a weaker yen. as you said, imports are going to start getting more expensive and japan.

it is true that they need more inflation, but it seems they also don't need the kind of uncertainty that is brought to the market by a lot of dollar-yen volatility. tom: you and i are ensconced at the frank lloyd wright bar. you are having psaki you can't afford. we are talking about a cultural change in japan. are we going to see that at this time? thierry: i would not describe it as such. say that cultural change is to say that somehow, 0.25% is some sort of line in the sand that is immutable. it was always intended to adjust with conditions. inflation is returning to japan to some extent, but more importantly, the boj risks having some sort of risk, if yields outside of japan continue to go up and people continue to dump their jgb's, i don't the boj want to be in a position

where they completely lose control of the talents sheet and the adjustment to have to make. i think it is what central bank's do all the time, but move with the times, move with the data. lisa: people would not have found that is shocking. i do wonder, going back to question about the idea of weak currency being a bad thing after so many years when i am sure the bank of japan would have welcomed a weaker currency. we have seen this race to strengthening in the fx market. are you saying that the bank of japan will be in the same camp to avoid the inflationary input? thierry: i think so. i think the inflation is certainly going to be visited upon japan. they are not a commodity economy. there's no reason to believe central bank policy, that the yen would stabilize at these levels.

i think they recognize that will be forced to make an adjustment. it may not be enough to take dollar-yen back down, but i think will be enough to start stabilizing dollar-yen. the thing i would keep in mind is that dollar-yen typically does not go up in those periods after the yield curve inverts. we are very close to inversion now, the same way we were in 2007 and 2019. dollar-yen was not rising anymore. it was rising before, but starts to fall after the inversion. that is another reason why we think dollar-yen may stabilize around these levels. lisa: this raises a question about whether the dollar really becomes a haven that will continue to get stronger, versus all of it still at the market peers amid the turmoil both with respect to inflation, but also with respect to potential growth scares. thierry: not necessarily.

the canadian dollar is stable. many of the emerging-market currencies are associate with commodity economies. so i would not do several issei -- not necessarily say that the dollar is the readout of inflation. . there are other currencies one can buy for better protection against the commodity driven or supply shut driven inflation. jonathan: the boj today had to come in multiple times. are they going to own the whole of this jgb market once they are done? because they own a lot of it already. thierry: i don't think so because i think that is not some thing they want to do. i don't think that is the central banks was ponce ability. -- "central's was ponce ability -- central bank's responsibility. jonathan: but they've already

done that, hasn't they? thierry: i don't think it is the central bank's role to eliminate liquidity. we were looking at very tough times in japan in the past. deflation. we are not looking at that anymore and japan. we need to reflate the diminishing importance and the need to potential he bring back the market is increasing his importance. i think they are going to raise the upper limit on jgb. jonathan: that is going to be the big issue. terry wiseman of mccoury, thank you. if they wanted to defend this line in the sand, it is going to be harder. if they don't want to own the home market, they will have to change the threshold. lisa: and as you point out, they have been pretty close to own the home market for a while. how much do they draw the line at owning the entire thing and controlling all price action?

thierry was suggesting we have reached that point. tom: would you call it a market -- jonathan: would you call it a market anymore? tom: it has not been for years. i feel very strongly about that. is it really our first true year and decades test of modern monetary theory? it is really interesting. there's a lot of culture here in the insular nature of japan. it is a key point. i think it is way more complex than just looking at the bloomberg terminal. jonathan: central banks don't always get what they want. coming up 8:15, about 40 minutes from now, wendy schiller from brown university on the comments from the president over the weekend. from new york city, this is bloomberg. lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa

mateo. peace talks between ukraine and russia resume this week. there are still differences on the terms for a cease-fire. civilians are expected to keep fleeing from mary a pole and civilian corridors will beat -- from mariupol and civilian corridors will be opened north of the city. the outbreak is challenging china's zero-tolerance approach to the virus like never before. residents will be barred from leaving their homes. public transport and car healing services will be suspended. the recovery of the second black box from the china eastern crash gives investigators their best chance to find out why the boeing 737 fell out of the sky. the flight data recorder has been sent to beijing for analysis. officials say some parts of the device are severely damaged. hp has agreed to buy plantronics in a 3.3 billion dollar deal.

the acquisition will help the laptop maker further capitalize on the pivot. . to hybrid work plantronics -- the pivot to hybrid work. plantronics cells headphones and other accessories. tesla higher in premarket trading. the carmaker will ask shareholders to vote this year's annual meeting to authorize additional shares in order to make a stock split possible. tesla has been trading at over $1000 a share. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: my message to the rest of you, this new battle for

freedom is crystal clear. europe must end its dependence on russian fossil fuels, and we the united states will help. jonathan: president joe biden over the weekend. you have heard another comment on repeat, so that is something different for you. futures up 0.2% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, up 0.25%. 2.4788% on the 10 year. 2.55% the high of the session, 2.44% the low, and there we are at 2.47 percent. in the commodity market, we're down. lisa has said it repeatedly this morning, down perhaps for the wrong reasons given the rolling lockdowns in china and now in shanghai. tom: the vix, a 20 close on friday. the extraordinary signals --

extraordinary signals of the equity market. javier blas, i thought you were brilliant this weekend on rebar, the idea of concrete, and you have to put steel in it because of a lack of tensile strength in the concrete. so you throw in the rebar and rebar is to the moon. that is the granularity of this commodity inflation. is it here to stay? is there anyway to pull back the price of rebar? javier: only if we have a recession, that will kill the price that we have. the rebar we put inside concrete is used to increase the tension. prices have collapsed 55% since the beginning of the year, and

russia and ukraine combined are the two largest supporters of steel. at the moment we are not getting those flows. tom: to trading houses that had potential losses on more boring things, less esoteric things like nickel, like rebar, is it risky with these price moves? javier: the steel market doesn't really have the participation of the big trading houses as we have in markets like aluminum or copper. a lot of the construction companies have construction jobs to do. they have price exposure.

we are going to have a big problem coming into the spring and summer. lisa: we have focused on russia and ukraine as the nose of this shock in the commodities world. let's look at china and what the ramifications may be for the price of oil. how much of a disruption is china, both to the upside in the downside, with perhaps pushing prices of certain metals up because they will not be producing, while at the same time pushing oil prices lower? javier: this is a crisis that will have both upside and downside impact for the commodity markets. in oil, more than 5% down because of the lockdown in particular in shanghai. we will see lower demand there

and obviously jet fuel has completely collapsed because of restrictions with covid. we are going to see some upside, particularly on the steel market, where we rely on china. we should be expected less production on the global market come but in general, i think the restrictions with china and covid increase the risk of a global recession coming later this year, perhaps the summer. so all considered, i think it significantly varies for commodity markets. lisa: can you elaborate on that, the idea of the china shutdowns we are seeing to various degrees ? paint that in terms of the commodity market at a time when people were worried about brent crude getting up to $150 a barrel? why wouldn't that reduce the risk of the commodity margin

leading to a recession? javy a: at the end of the debt -- javier: the impact on china, we have seen extensive prices for oil, so we are having expensive shock with high-energy prices, and china is not going to change the price of gas in europe or electricity. so still having that price impact in the global economy, and now having a slow down on the economy because of the restrictions, i think the chances that the global economy slows down have increased significantly. jonathan: thank you, as always. the wonderful javier blas on the commodity market. in the fx market, cable, 131.19. tom: talk about that. what is the significance here?

jonathan: last year at 135 just as the bank of england started a tightening cycle, and now that tightening cycle has become a little bit fragile. governors bailey -- governor bailey speaking in brussels, saying it might be appropriate in the coming months to tighten monetary policy as opposed to a likely move, which is the language they had moved in the past. he's worried about the pickup and prices, but ultimately the pickup and prices hitting demand. if they are hiking into weakness, what does it mean for the currency trade? for cable sterling, it is weaker. tom: baby one of the most import people on surveillances michael mckee because the data will be critical. there were a couple of whispers in the zeitgeist in europe. there's lots of expelling of

diplomats tit-for-tat going on on an eventful monday. i know north macedonia expels five russian diplomats. jonathan: would you like me to weigh on and thus -- to weigh in on this? 'bramo doesn't know what we are talking about. this is about losing to north macedonia last week and not being in the world cup. so any headline associated with north macedonia, it doesn't matter what it is, thomas going to bring it up on this program. futures up 0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.3%. in the bond market, we shape up as follows. i am still sore about this. the whole weekend, honestly.

another article about italy and how bad the team is. i can't even read the sports pages these days. i think you are thinking of a different newspaper, a different time and place. stay out of trouble, all right?

> for the last 20 months we have basically gone sideways. >> we are going to be looking at a growth shock further down the line. >> the market probably once the fed to do nothing. >> ultimately i'm following the data like everyone else, and the data are externally confused, extremely confusing. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a most even for monday for you on radio and television. it is simple. we begin to measure yield