says it will reduce military operations in areas where forces are being pushed back while kyiv is calling for security guarantees from european union and nato members. russia indicated talks could pave the way for a meeting between vladimir putin and loaded mers zelenskyy. president biden thanked singapore's prime minister for supporting ukraine in a white house meeting today, speaking to reporters as the meeting began. he said the world's "rules-based order is facing unprecedented challenges." he said in addition to ukraine they discussed maintaining a free and open pacific. the u.s. relationship, asian allies and returning democracy to myanmar. they are speaking right now and you can watch that on live go. the house committee investigating last year's riot

at the capitol by a mob of former trump supporters is looking into a more than seven hour gap in white house phone records on the day of the insurrection. california congressman pete at gillard tells bloomberg there are "quite a few gaps in the logs provided to the committee confirming an earlier washington post report." they include the timeframe when the capital was being breached. peru's president has survived the second attempt to impeach him. after a marathon eight hour debate 55 of 128 lawmakers voted to impeach pedro castillo, short of the 87 needed. they tried to oust him for moral incapacity. a former teacher emerged from obscurity last year to unexpectedly win the presidency.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. >> welcome to "bloomberg markets ." >> oil falls amid signs of optimism in ukraine with talks between putin and zelenskyy on the cards. >> that sending credit risk of falling. we speak with bradley rogoff from barclays. and we are joined by the ceo of hyliion to discuss the future of the global trucking

industry. let us get a quick check on the major indexes, averages and it looks like a very tight spread. >> obviously if the general tone today has been willingness to do some buying and we see that with the s&p, up half a percent, it has been interesting to watch the change in equity sentiment with the s&p at this stage up in the neighborhood of 5% after challenging start in january and february. but staying with the bond market theme you're talking about, for what it's worth we want to take a good look at what is happening with investment-grade credit because it has been a rough year for u.s. corporate risk. but when you start looking at the charts, and the bloomberg team does a great analysis of what is happening with one of

the indexes that tracks investment-grade debt, you can basically have a timetable of widening spreads, risk growing through january, february and into march. over the last couple of days a couple of indications that some of those concerns have come down a little bit. obviously we will have to see how things play out there for a hard hit market an interesting chart nonetheless. matt: we will be keeping our eye on it. i am looking at my wb screen and the twos are up to 239.1 and the 10-year is 239.3. we are getting danr close -- darn close to something that may not matter at all, but to sum it signals a recession is coming.

if you look over the past couple of decades at least 12 or 18 months a recession always follows. joining us to talk about credit is brad rogoff, global head of fixed income currencies and commodity research at barclays. we have an expert to tell us what it means. thank you for coming into the studio. great to have someone on set post-pandemic i can say that. what do you think about the possibility of -- and what it really means for the markets and the economy? brad: thank you for having me in person. you are right. historically, what does it mean? it does not mean good things. it means recessions. it means credit spreads should go wider. we can look back historically and when it gets inside 30 basis points you look at forward credit returns, they are not great. all of this is, what are we pricing in? to the point of the grass we

showed we are pricing in a lot compared to a few weeks ago. we are pricing in less today. if you go back to the wides of the month on the cash index, you're talking 145 basis points for corporates. you could see -- assuming it is not significant -- trade outs like 150. what we see right now back into the 120 spread context your pricing in a 20% chance of recession over the course of the next year or so. probably a little light. i do not think that light but it is on the lighter side. jon: when i try to think about the other dynamics, especially in the world of credit that is being issued, you have been keeping tabs on the level of investment-grade bond sales. when we get a headline like this on the curve what does that mean? in a year where, up until this point, we were seeing a reasonable amount of activity in

terms of investment-grade sales? matt: we should clarify for viewers we did see an inversion. brad: historic moment. matt: the first time since 2019 we have seen it. i want to make that clear because i said we are getting closer. it happened about a minute and a half ago. we were briefly inverted. try and answer that on the debt sale side. let's stick with the curve theme. part of that has been we have seen a lot of issues and when you get in a rate curve that is as flat as it has been it could provide more yield. the credit curve remains really flat. what you have seen is not only a lot of issuance but a good chunk come out of the curve because there has been demand. you are not being charged much for it. matt: i want to ask about the no

good, terrible quarter that has been globally and not just across corporate -- look at fixed income. what do you do after a quarter like that? if i look at the barclays index, it is the worst performance of my lifetime. i am old. is that a buy signal? or do you still have to be careful not to go back in the water? brad: i hear you. my hair is a lot grayer than the picture you show. we have not seen this in a long time. it is a historic day because of the inversion that we are near the end of the quarter. i always remember march 31 is my son's birthday. matt: happy birthday. brad: thank you. it is a big deal. when you get a quarterly statement the investment-grade index is down less than that. it was down eight and three

quarters of a percent going into today. that is a huge number. look, for investment-grade it is important to remember mutual matters but it is not the most important. the biggest buyers are insurance companies. we have seen huge demand from a yield standpoint. not just for investment-grade but bonds down over 5%. i do think there is some fear that we will get more outflows and even if we get a relief rally like headlines today continue out of ukraine, you have to balance that i think. jon: i want to come back to headlines. this inversion which happened while you joined us on air -- matt: because you joined us. [laughter] jon: not because you joined us, will spark another round of headlines about what the fed is planning on doing and the recessionary risk that comes with that. how does that impact the messaging that we get from the central bank when you're just

going to have this fresh round of headlines sparked by what is happening in the bond market and its estimation of the central bank's strategy and what that will do to the economy? brad: i think they have to take something like the inversion even if it is minor into account. but there's also been so much in the press and all of us thinking, ok, equity market is down 20%. in my world credit spreads hit 150. is that where the fed steps in? we have been focused on all of these metrics and that is because the playbook -- even for those of us who have gray hair have been looking at the last 20, 25, 30 years -- it is still different. over that time peiod when has the -- period when has them fed had to think about this mandate and face inflation? i think a minor inversion, i don't think it really changes

the fed rhetoric because they do have to focus on inflation and whether that is actually slowing. that does not appear to be a near-term event. jon: we are around the same age and i remember my parents paying double digit percentage mortgage. when i first started watching the news paul volcker was getting bricks thrown through his window. ford made the mustang from the greatest car america ever produced to something really embarrassing. matt: are we headed back there? we have all the ingredients. we have got super high inflation that looks like it is getting worse. growth is into a contraction. gas prices that are over five dollars a gallon. where do you hide in fixed income? brad: i was in california last week on a work trip and i saw those prices and it was quite shocking to see the six handle.

i think growth is slowing. we are a little ways away from contraction is one thing i would say. we are holding up better then in some prior periods. we have had the experience. we had the volcker experience and we know you cannot ignore something like this. i think that makes you wiser but it may not be seamless as other times the fed has been able to act the last few decades. where do you hide in fixed income? first of all, it is a duration argument. actually, even if i was not so worried about duration and i looked at spreads, i would want to be at the short end of the curve. the spread environment is cheaper. the back and spread curves have flattened. if you are looking at this more broadly, one to 10 year chunk feels better than out the curve. there has certainly been proponents for going into more

floating-rate stuff. leverage loans have held up substantially better. i think that will continue to occur unless we are headed to that rougher recessionary credit selloff. but one of these -- i think the floating-rate securities will remain decent. jon: good point. a couple of weeks ago 35% chance of a recession, next year and i thought that seems low. matt: we are going to have a recession the question is what kind do we have? would you agree? brad: it depends on the timeframe. in the next year we are definitely going to have one. i would not be there on that but the probability has gone up. over a longer timeframe it becomes higher. not every recession is the great financial crisis. certainly never seen anything like we saw in 2020.

if we get a shallow recession, it is going to be quite different. i do not think the fault rates are going to spike like they did in the past. you look at the high-yield market which is a shorter duration, higher quality than before. it is going to perform better than in a previous recession. i think that is a very important point in terms of how you think about the risk spectrum. jon: great to get your perspective. your hair is no grayer despite these news headlines. really good to get that perspective. the two-year yield exceeding the 10 year for the first time since 2019. thanks to brad rogoff. coming up, stock of the hour. apple is higher. we talk about what has been leading to the longest streak of daily gains for apple as it hovers around flatline over the course of the year. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: i am jon erlichman along with matt miller. you were talking about the move in apple. stock of the hour. apple, you think about the desire to own this stock but the streak we have seen is pretty remarkable. have not seen this since 2003. abigail doolittle joining us with more on what has been driving apple shares. abigail: pretty interesting. apple surging higher, up 11 days in a row. best winning streak or longest since 2003. over these 11 days almost up 20%. that is incredible. this means we are back on $3

trillion market cap watch. lots of good things going on. i would say the biggest point is high quality. this is the world's largest company. they have a ton of cash, $400 billion in revenue expected this year. one down point is that revenue is slowing. 8.4% relative to 29% last year. something to point out relative to the yield curve inversion, apple and stocks has been rallying into this inversion. everybody focuses on the fact it is recessionary but it is really a last gas moment as short-term rates go higher. matt: and the markets. i am sure you have charted recessions and the stock market. as soon as we get signs there is going to be a recession we do not see the stock market tank. abigail: people are all in.

typically 9, 12 months later there is pain but we could have continued risk on. this rally we have had the last couple of months is right into the inversion. jon: we were inverted. abigail: briefly. matt: pretty exciting. abigail doolittle, thank you so much for joining us. coming up, we speak to hyliion ceo thomas healy about the pressures on the automotive market and the power of going electric, especially in trucking. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." i am matt miller with jon erlichman. as we move toward a zero emissions future companies are looking to bridge the gap between gasoline powered engines and cleaner energy, renewable energy sources that we don't

really use yet. hyliion is looking to deploy a new fleet of electric trucks and the second half of this year powered by natural gas and a natural gas generator. that will bridge the gap and even move forward into that future. we bring in the ceo and founder thomas healy. down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. thank you for joining us. tell me where you think -- we just saw pictures of your hyper truck which looks so cool. where does that fit in this road to zero emissions? thomas: we are really focused on the long haul. no doubt commercial vehicles are going electric. when you start getting into these big trucks that need to travel a lot of miles batteries don't work. you have an issue with too much charge coming off the grid and that is where, as you mentioned, we use a power plant on the vehicle to charge the battery as your driving. you get 1000 miles of range out

of an electric truck. jon: no doubt. you got a pretty interesting story. you were racing cars and go carts and here you are leading the charge. i could see u.n. matt miller duking it out when you were younger. one of the questions for a company that goes public so young is what can you tell us about the order book? thomas: we have spent a lot of time focusing on customer demand and filled out almost 1000 units and reservation. over the last month or so we started booking production slots. people actually putting deposits into reserve vehicles coming off the line. over the last few weeks we announced close to 200 units for those production slots. a lot of interest behind the product. matt: what is your business plan looking like in terms of moving into a profitable future?

how long until you are generating significant revenue and making money on these products? thomas: while we are focused on electrifying commercial vehicles we are doing it differently than the others in the space. we are not reinventing the truck. we partner with the conventional truck makers and put our powertrain in those vehicles. our path to profitability in the amount of cash we have is faster, cash burn is less. then competitors we see this as a volume play. as we scale up volume and start shipping thousands and tens of thousands of units that is when the cost will get into profitable. we will be launching production officially on the vehicle in the latter part of 2023. the goal is get as many out on the road as possible. jon: thomas, thank you for your perspective. thomas healy, ceo of hyliion joining us on the road ahead. we should probably reiterate the road ahead for everybody watching the markets right now influenced in part by the news

you were breaking earlier. the two-year yield exceeding the 10 year for the first time since 2019. matt: we saw the curve briefly invert. i am pulling it up to see where we are. we have really bounced back and if you look at the chart of the -- by the way, if you type "usy c2y10 index" you can see the curve. it briefly bounced back up. nonetheless, it is an historic moment because this is the first time we have seen any inversion by this measure since 2019. the last time, as abigail and i were talking about, in the commercial break the curve inversion predicted the covid cost of recession. jon erlichman, i am matt miller.

mark: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world here is the first word. i am mark crumpton.

u.s. regulators clear the way for adults 50 and over to get a second covid-19 booster shot. the fda said today anyone who received a booster from moderna or pfizer-biontech four months ago is eligible for a fourth shot. while the highly transmissible omicron declined overall the viruses' ba-2 strain is surging. opec says, trust us. they said prices would be more volatile if not for the cartel strategy. >> something we always do in the way that we work we have one objective only which is trying to maintain the supply to the market and is se at