hikes. >> one what i see in this yield curve is a soft landing scenario. >> you are going to see the impact of the flatter curve. >> the uncertainty factor is absolutely enormous. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city, morning, good morning, this is announcer: --this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p just a little bit softer after a four-day winning streak on the s&p 500. russia's promises met with international skepticism. tom: headlines right now. i will let you get to that. what i see here is round-trip after the buoyancy yesterday. ruble does round-trip, so does everything else out there. all of that preparing us for immediate april. we need to remember on this

wednesday it is a nonfarm payrolls week. we have to get used to it. jonathan: we can go through some of the data. some of the expectations ahead of friday. this u.s. government it is mistrust and verify. they do not trust the promises of the russian government. they are looking to verify some of the pledges made in the last 24 hours. ultimately they are a promise to sharply withdraw from ukraine's capital. tom: it is 6:00. he would is from bloomberg. kremlin, no breakthrough in ukraine talks. what else do you need? we are getting the micro measurements. the bank of russia moves money around today. they go to 20% is there new working yield. does that say banana republic? jonathan: no breakthrough in ukraine talks, lots of work remains. lisa: this is what people were gaming out overnight.

it was not any material change and there was a show me the action kind of move. it has been a shift in focus, though. if there is some sort of resolution in the near term to the ukraine more, what then is that due to markets? does that leave them on a tear upward or leave them worrying about central bank hawkish nest? these are the dual prongs we are going to be debating. jonathan: spanish cpi almost in double digits. lisa: expectations of recession, 9.8%. that is compared to something with an eight handle of expectations. it is becoming unworn from expectations of economists. jonathan: futures down .3% on the s&p 500.

on the nasdaq, .4%. crude, positive 2%. the line from the kremlin this morning, no breakthrough in ukraine talks. lisa, lots of work remains. lisa: this is what a lot of people were gaming out yesterday. is there a lot of progress that has been made? can we take, to use your words, a lot of tail risks off the table people were gaming out? eight: 15 a.m. we get march employment change. we are going to be looking at how much progress there is, how may people are coming back into the labor force as the unemployment rate falls. how much lower can it get? at 8:30 we will also get the third read on the third quarter gdp figures. how does this unemployment rate factor into the willingness to spend at a time when prices are rising at the fastest clip going back to the 1980's? at 10:30, and exclusive with

michael mckee. how much does he edify this feeling that a 50 basis point rate hike is pretty much guaranteed in the next meeting? we are also going to be hearing from esther george at around 1:00 p.m. today. at 10:30 am, obviously there is so much focus on oil. how much can we supply crude with 10% of the world supplies in question? we get the eia report. it comes at a time when gas prices are hovering around the highest ever in the united states. how much do we see them subside as we see prices come down on the broader market? how much is this basically a pause? jonathan: lisa, thank you. let's start the market conversation with thanos vamvakidis. can we start with these headlines from the kremlin? no breakthrough in ukraine talks. looking at the inflation bank drop in europe. pushing double-digit in spain. do you have a decent

understanding of the reaction function of this ecb? thanos: the ecb is facing a difficult challenge. the war in ukraine, the energy shock is impacting the european economy. growth will slow substantially. the ecb would have liked to start monetization, but with the war, for now they want to keep their options open. we do believe we start hiking by the end of this year, that they cannot go as fast as one would have expected even a surge in inflation. tom: i'm interested in where the next big figure move is. the japanese yen weakening, that is one full point. that is how you make money in foreign exchange. ruble's out to 130-something. 84 right now on dollar/ruble.

where is the next big figure event i can take advantage of? thanos: the yen move has been interesting. it has been driven by the shock, given that japan is a major energy importer. and given how much market is now pricing for the fed. despite the war in ukraine we did really have a risk-off. looking ahead, maybe yen has overshot, so in the short term we see a bounce by the end of the fiscal year. the australian dollar also seems to have overshot. but to us it seems like the market is pricing too much for the ruble. maybe we will see a correction in aussie/en. -- ozzie/-- aussie/yen.

the ecb is in a much more difficult position. as long as the war continues we see -- we still believe there is the euro-dollar down to the downside. lisa: 1.05, further weakness for the euro at a time when people are expecting him a especially if there is no cease fire, the open -- the economic momentum to regain a little bit of steam. can you walk through what gets us to that 1.05? thanos: the consensus is 1.14 for the euro-dollar. we are much more semester: economic growth compared to other consensus is. to a large extent because of the energy shock and the war in ukraine. we have 2.8% growth in europe this year. and 2.5%. we have a much slower pace of

ecb monetization. they will start in december, then four more hikes next year. for the fed we have determined our rate, three point -- the .25%. even if the war does not escalate in ukraine, a lot of damage has already been done. consumer confidence is collapsing in europe. so the energy prices have already increased at levels that have hurt the european economy. even if things don't get worse, we believe the damages enough to weaken the euro. jonathan: you are saying the ecb hikes are currency negative. is that the call here? thanos: because the fed will hike by much more in the ecb will not hike enough given the increase of inflation we have seen, because of the negative shock on economic growth.

basically, the u.s. economy is over hitting while the u.s. economy is hit by negative shocks. tom: as jon says, this is really important. what is your call on single spot euro? thanos: to a large extent, because of growth differentials. both of them would keep the euro week, possibly weaker. tom: come on, nobody is watching. you can tell us, forare you looking for 1.05 on euro, or can you give me .95? thanos: to go even lower, they can happen only if we get sanctions on energy from europe. i think 1.05 is a reasonable level. with sanctions it can go below parody. -- parity. in the euro-dollar can weaken even more. jonathan: thank you.

thanos vamvakidis of merrill lynch. that is not the kind of car you would expect. the ecb said to do something they haven't done since 2011, which is hike interest rates. here we talk about euro-dollar dropping to 1.05. tom: we have to and a good job looking at yen dynamics on the rest of it, but that conversation is really important about the distinctions between differentials and news flow that gets a single spot price to move a shocking way. jonathan: the damage is done seems to be the take away. even if the ecb makes a move, the fed is going to make a bid -- a bigger one. but as enos admitted, that is an out of consensus call. lisa: especially as people take a look at the recovery from covert. you remember, the pandemic? i do think it is fascinating the point you picked up on.

no longer can we look at fx trades through the lens of which central bank is hiking. now it is about economic mentoring, and that is much more hampered in europe. jonathan: have you seen this breakdown of german cpi? we have had all of the regional cpi prints. the verio, 7.8%. saxony, 7%. you could have something similar to that out of germany. tom: for our american audience, those numbers are shocking. you would have to move in the lap -- move them up 2%, it would be like 9% in america. jonathan: where are we between talks -- in talks between russia and ukraine? there is a lot of work that remains. much more to come from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news around the world, i'm lisa matteo. russia has offered to cut back

military operations in northern ukraine has sparked optimism. there is strong reason for caution. a russian commander had said they planned to re-concentrate their forces in eastern ukraine. one person close to the kremlin learned that the escalation does not mean a cease fire or complete withdrawal of russian troops from the area surrounding tf. it is one of the biggest cryptocurrency attacks ever. hackers stole about $600 million from a blockchain network connect it to the axi infinity online game. they drained ether and usdc tokens in two transactions. the breach was not discovered for six days. it is time to ditch the old playbook when it comes to china. katherine tai says the u.s. should forget about trying to change china's behavior and instead take a more defensive posture toward the world's second-largest economy. in remarks prepared for a congressional hearing, she blasted china for not living up to commitments.

the house committee investigating the insurrection at the capital has questioned former president trump's calls that day. they uncovered a seven hour gap in phone logs. the gap covers a period when lawmakers were trying to get him to call the mob. eps will buy back as much as $6 billion of stock over the next two years. it is part of a plan to boost shareholder return that surprised analysts with ambitious targets and cost targets. after exiting the pandemic with lower losses than expected. less trading and you making have searched. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

>> the jobs report last month beat estimates. >> we have a very tight labor market. >> what is the best labor

markets in a generation. >> this friday tom, jon, lisa, and mike will bring you analysis. >> or people are coming into the labor force. >> as the fed looks to contain inflation it is important that the jobs recovery continued. >> the march jobs report, friday on bloomberg television and radio. >> we believe this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal. and we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of ukraine. it does not mean that the threat to kyiv is over. jonathan: john kirby there, the pentagon press secretary. from new york city this morning, good morning. on the s&p 500, we are lower by .4%. on the nasdaq we are down by .6%. yields higher by a single basis point.

crewed up by 1.9%. russia does not observe any breakthrough in ukraine talks. a lot of work remains to be done, tom. as to the kremlin spokesperson, on a call with journalists 20 minutes ago. tom: from 18 hours ago what a shift that has been. you see it someone in the markets, but maybe not that much. dollar/ruble is a litmus paper. down to an 83 level right now. this morning stephanie baker and tom maloney issue of bloomberg businessweek, a spectacular article on sanctions and oligarchs. emily wilkins joins us right now on what must be the reaction of the white house. while, emily. what a piece, with graphics show how leaky all of this sanctions stuff is. how does the president plug the holes with prime minister

johnson and brussels and the rest of continental europe? emily: to a certain extent sanctioning specific individuals has always been a tricky thing, just because there is not sort of that global communication in who is on the list, was on the same list. our reporting clearly shows that, at some oligarchs on some lists, some are not on any lists. tom: great, but are we going to get tougher? that is what the public wants to know. jon, is prime minister johnson leading the way on this? jonathan: on sanctions, tom? they have been on the same page, haven't they? last week got another list ramping things up for the administration. there was always scope to do more based on whether we got an escalation. the question a lot of people ask right now is whether we have taken that escalation off the table by the pledges the russians have made in the past 24 hours? emily: i refer you to what president joe biden said, just we need to wait and see.

that is the stance washington is in this morning. to see what russia does. are they really pulling out of kyiv? are they reassembling their forces to go harder in the donbass region? these are things that remain unknowns. if you look at what the biden administration is doing, bloomberg has reported they are reporting they might potentially provide another $500 million in aid to ukraine for humanitarian and military efforts. lawmakers are getting confidential briefings on this situation. in washington it does not feel like anything has shifted in terms of the speed talk -- peace talks and if there is going to be some sort of conclusion. lisa: there is an issue of hardening sanctions, then there is the issue of supporting allies, notably germany, in their attempt to fortify their good natural gas supplies. especially as russia talks about demanding rubles for payment. where are we getting those stockpiles up and running and

adding alternative methods of germany's lng input? emily: the blood and administration, this is certainly one of the things they are focused on, i can share their allies are going to be able to get the energy they need. this is something that is definitely in conversation within the biden administration. lawmakers too, though. there is talk of additional sanctions, as was being mentioned. there have been some difficulties getting things through congress. we saw senator rand paul has put a hold on legislation to end regular, normal trade relations with russia. that will coast to the house, and now senator paul wants to see changes. other senators are saying no, that is going to take too long. you see this process stalled. while the u.s. wants to do more, you are seeing some divisions break down in lawmakers and the amount of aid, support, and a sanctions and how they want to roll those out. lisa: on a longer-term basis, got the fiscal year budget for

next year from joe biden this week. how much are we seeing more willingness to add to the military budget on a permanent level regardless of the outcome of this conflict? emily: that is a really interesting question, because we have seen democrats fall along very traditional lines on this. you are seeing progressives say they should not have more funding. this has been a point for them on the previous budget, it is a point for them in the current budget. they say they are going to push to lower defense spending or should domestic spending is also increased. they are continuing their position even as the war in ukraine continues. we are also seeing some concerns raised by moderate democrats that spending is not enough. congressman what -- a congresswoman and a former commander in the navy tweeted last night that she has delayed a statement on the budget mostly because they would be full of words you would expect from a sailor. she said the u.s. is not

spending what it needs to on its forces, that it is not supplying the navy with enough ships to defend in places like taiwan, and she is raising serious concerns. if a moderate democrat, who this budget is aimed at, is raising concerns, there are larger questions about what this budget is going to look like when it is finished going through the congressional process. jonathan: emily wilkins in d.c.. the latest polling for the president, the lowest approval rating of his presidency. progressives are worried about the base not being energized going into the midterms. so the worries from congresswoman casio cortez as well. when we think about the budget, that is what things are about. it is about the things like the billionaire tax that will not get done. it is about taxing unrealized gains. they know they can't make policy with that. that is about campaigning and trying to energize progressives, who right now are not energized by this president, it seems. tom: it is a long way to go. i don't know how that story is

going to twist and turn. i thought gregory valliere said, done on arrival. mention -- manchin as well. it may have been a bone to progressives. i think, get out the calendar. it is a cold march and they have to get tomato reset. jonathan: the problem the president has got right now -- there were many -- the public as supported what he has done with russia. they support the crude band, more specifically. yet at the same time they blame him with what is happening with price pressures and inflation. what can they do for that between now and november? the calendar is on their side. that may change things on wall street. maybe it comes down to 5%, 4%. but the people on main street are going to feel it, are they? lisa: they still are feeling it. if you look at polls, people are

blaming inflation as the main problem facing the u.s. economy. the greatest degree going back four decades. this is going to affect the election. jonathan: on the nasdaq, down .5%. from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

jonathan: four-day winning streak on the s&p 500. yesterday held down from a constructive site -- tight from both sides. the kremlin saying, no breakthrough. you choose negative by .3% on the s&p. by .5% on the nasdaq. you were looking at the treasury market yesterday. twos and tens, inverted. just for a moment today the curve is just a little bit steeper. yields on to his coming four basis points. basis points on tens, on the 10 year, we can talk about a german two-year as well. it german two-year, through zero for the first time since 2014. in the inflation data out of

europe, i would have to say not just for the bundesbank, for the ecb, disturbing. pushing double digits in spain, and germany, that data drops in about 90 minutes. anything 6%, 7% for the germans is a big deal. tom: want to reemphasize that. it is as simple as this. the numbers john manley so are quoting in europe cannot be compared to the same number in america. the culture there, the fabric is, this is unacceptable. jonathan: what does it mean for policy out of the ecb? they still have to wind down to a. -- wind down qe. you have to work out what you're going to do with interest rates. that governing council member is one of the most hawkish on the governing council. his view is 50 basis points before the year ends.

it is the consensus view on the governing council? tom: maybe they want clarity from moscow. we don't have that this morning. let's get to it, megan greene joins us, with work at harvard kennedy school. i want to go to your wheelhouse, which is the transatlantic dynamic you and i studied series in textbooks. those do not work anymore. given the algebra of all of this, the epsilon and the right-hand side of the equation, given all of this uncertainty, what is the new central bank transatlantic theory? megan: we are looking at massive monetary policy diversions between the fed and ecb. that is going to be difficult to sustain. the eu's inflation print is pretty shocking. headline inflation in europe is just under 10%. of course, you have to strip out a bunch of commodity and energy costs to see what is underlying, but the ecb is committed to

winding down its bond purchasing program first before it starts hiking rates. it will not manage to get rates up until the end of this year at best. in the u.s., meanwhile, economists are trying to out-hawk one another with the number of rate hikes they can call for for the u.s.. the u.s. is going much more aggressively than the ecb is. we know in general that monetary policy diversions is impossible over a period of time. the fed is hiking aggressively. either it is going to have to back off, or other major central banks are going to have to catch up. insofar as inflation is way higher than the ecb wanted to be, i think the ecb is going to become hawkish as well. tom: you studied your robert mundell, the great columbia -- i mean, currency is the release valve here. does that hold, given these unique set of uncertainties? megan: i think it does hold.

if the fed is hiking much more aggressively than other major central banks i think the dollar will appreciate. that could cause disturbances across emerging markets, of course, because all of these dollar bonds are going to be more expensive to service. trade which has been invoiced in u.s. dollars which -- will become more expensive, so that will be bad for importers. there is talk off the back of the conflict between russia and ukraine of the dollar -- is going to take years and years. i think we can expect the dollar to appreciate, and that be problematic for other parts of the world particularly. lisa: you have to weigh in on the big question of the day. does the yield curve matter or not matter? we have a lot of people coming out saying, you are looking at the wrong thing and other people saying, the time you say this time is different is the time you end up with egg on your face. where do you stand? megan: i do think it matters

that much. the two tens inverted for seconds, which is not long enough to provide signal. the yield curve inversion is way more effective than any economist, including me, in terms of calling recession, so there is that, but the sample size is not huge. we need to look at the shorter end of the yield curve in order to get more of a signal. don't forget, the u.s. government has been borrowing to pay for things like the pandemic response. so that will push the short end up without making any commentary on expectations about growth. in the fed has wound up its bond buying program. that could push the long and down i think these are bigger factors than the fact that investors expect a recession. that being said, it is going to be difficult for the fed to hike rates aggressively, which the fed expects to. it has no perceptible impact on employments. we know from the rules that if a

weighted average of unemployment goes up, then it is a much better predictor of sessions in the yield curve is. i think we will see that happen. i am not so worried about the yield curve, but i think there are other signals that could be coming down the pike if the fed hikes aggressively that suggests we will be pitching. lisa: you already seeing signs that the consumer is losing appetite to absorb price increases, to a place where you start to wonder about how much momentum is there? lisa: at -- megan: absolutely. energy cost israel, on top of elevated inflation already. i think everybody is feeling in the u.s.. it is perceptible. that is weighing on spending. we know that stimulus payments divided a cushion for many households, but low income households in particular have probably just about earned

through that entire cushion. so they are facing this double whammy of no more cushion and higher prices. of course, they have the highest marginal propensity to consume, so they are spending the biggest proportion of their income anyhow. that will weigh on consumption too. consumption is the biggest driver in the u.s.. we were always expecting a slowdown this year. energy prices were already expected to be elevated even before the russia/ukraine crisis. it is just worse than what we have expected, but a slowdown was inevitable. the question is, as the fed hike so aggressively now that a recession hits rather than just a slowdown check when we were growing we have a potential coming into this year. there is a lot of room to slowdown. jonathan: moments ago i think the answer to that question is buried in it. you mentioned rule. unemployment's already sub-4%. we have people thinking you

could go lower friday. given this timing cycle and where unemployment is, the former new york fed president said a hard landing is all but inevitable. would you go with that? megan: yeah. like i said, i think the fed forecasts that it will get that many rate hikes off will affect inflation but not unemployment much and it will not affect earth much just does not add up. -- affect -- i do think that is a great indicator that a recession is coming. jonathan: megan greene, thank you. tom, a really interesting point many people are making -- unemployment is at a much lower starting point for this rate hiking cycle, and once it starts if you are going to put the brakes on the economy and unemployment starts to climb, it is hard to stop what happens next, quite often. tom: we are not doing, jon, a normal surveillance. coming into this jobs report, it

is a gauge of this labor economy. this technology-driven economy. the numbers we are going to see on friday -- and i'm sorry, it is playing second fiddle to the drama out there, that it is important. jonathan: let's talk about the drama and let's talk about it from central bank central bank. the central bank's word -- the central bank of england is worried about a growth drop. the ecb is worried about the growth backdrop. you do not hear that from the federal reserve. they believe this labor market is stronger now than it was when they started a tightening cycle back in 2015. tom: i saw a statistic that the united kingdom is about 8% manufacturing. that is a good starting point. these are not equivalent economies, they are not equivalent cultures, they are not equivalent central banks. they all have their own mandate. u.s. has the comfort of being precisely that -- the u.s. chairman powell can prosecute that until currency tells him not to. jonathan: when you get

comfortable, lisa, you start to make stakes. lisa: and how much is this comfort coming from markets that the fed wants to disrupt? honestly at a certain point the fed wants to disrupt financial conditions. they are not doing it. if they are not succeeding, will they be able to succeed in their goal of cribbing inflation? it is almost a tautology. they have to slow growth more than people are pricing in. jonathan: payrolls, 490,000. unemployment, 3.7%. the previous read, 3.8%. tom: i did a presidential moving average of non-farm payrolls, we are still deficient on that four-year moving average, given the noise of the pandemic. but it is stunning how we have made that back with the policies we have. job formation -- fantastic is the correct word. jonathan: there is a massive spread between the conversation

we have, that people have on wall street as well, and how people on main street are experiencing this economy. it comes up in poll after poll. he comes up in the consumer confidence survey. you see it everywhere. tom: i'm going to go back to a great piece and number of years ago -- i cannot remember the economist, but it is, technology is a benefit to your job, and technology hindering job formation. that describes this social angst. jonathan: what is surprising is that the consumer confidence numbers have not hit the output numbers yet. lisa: some people take a look at other consumer confidence surveys. real spending tomorrow is expected to be negative. possibly the most negative in a couple of months. jonathan: it is a bright and cheery good morning from all of us. [laughter] good morning. tom: the bramble camels on. jonathan: this is bloomberg. lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date

with news around the world, i'm lisa mattea. the u.s. once that key of remains under threat -- key of remains under threat, despite russia's promises scale back operations. moscow is now likely to focus on taking control of two eastern provinces. in the u.k. the cost of living squeeze for consumers has gotten worse. prices rose this month at the fastest annual pace since 2011. the report by the british retail consortium said the war in ukraine is now accelerating inflation. the brc said shop price inflation was 2.1% this month. the uk's official rate is already above 6%. a team of u.s. investigators is headed to china to help determine what caused that china eastern boeing 737 to crash. group includes experts from

boeing and the national transportation safety board the jet plunged from its cruising altitude of 29,000 feet. biontech is returning some of the profits from its best-selling covid vexing to shareholders. the company is planning a share buyback of as much as 1.5 billion dollars in will propose a special dividend. biontech is pfizer's partner in the vaccine. shares of lululemon are trading in -- are soaring in pre-market trading. they beat estimates. that suggests the company is overcoming supply chain operate -- problems. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mattea. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there are certain issues in which a compromise is quite close or realistic.

we have heard that before when it comes to the neutrality. there is a way to reach compromise. when it comes to territorial integrity, there is no way comp from eyes can be reached. jonathan: there is work still to be done. that was the ukrainian president zelenskyy's advisor on the negotiations yesterday in turkey. that has been echoed by the russians. the kremlin saying no breakthrough. much work still remains following hopes of a breakthrough yesterday following talks in turkey, where the ukrainians said there was ground for a meeting in the russians pledged to pull back militarily the operations around ukraine's capital. tom, that met with international skepticism over the last day or so, and that continues this morning. tom: the market shows it was a turn morning. turn to the equity market. jobs data coming up here. right now on the unspoken conversation of america, which fortunately medical types of --

types are really looking at. bhakti hansoti, emergency medicine at johns hopkins. i'm going to cut to the chase. i read the american heart association's long piece on myocarditis. it was people out there way too young to understand this. you have to get another booster, yet there it is, vaccine one, vexing too, booster one, booster two. what about heart disease? brief us dr. hansoti:. we are still trying to unravel what the complications of covid really are. myocarditis, long covid, mental health complications. now a new study also shows individuals with covid have a higher likelihood of type two diabetes. then one of the challenges in america i'm at the health system, his lack of universal access to primary health care. what are your options?

how do you get to see a cardiologist? how do you get diagnosed in these conditions? some institutions have made available long covid clinics or post-acute covid clinics. those are available to those with insurance. and not accessible to everybody. i don't think we will truly understand the toll of society covid has taken for some time. i think we need to think about how to strengthen the health system to be able to provide access for all. lisa: we are hearing post-covid reality kind of talks out of the white house. president biden it is going to be addressing the public this afternoon to talk about it. what are you expecting in terms of what it will signal and what is needed to declare the pandemic over? dr. hansoti: i think that is really challenging, because we talk about the current numbers in america being low. people returning to normal. we are seeing football games, we are seeing children in school thought masks.

we are seeing springtime. there is a lot of hope right now, people outdoors. we also know that across the pond in the united kingdom ba.2 is surging. and we are watching with some apprehension to see what happens in the united states. we know ba.2 is becoming a more dominant strain, but we have not seen the rise of hospitalizations or death. we need to watch before we determine the pandemic is over. i think the acute phase of an acute response to the pandemic is long overdue. jonathan: what we have experienced in the u.k., what are we seeing, the relationship between fact -- infections and hospitalizations? dr. hansoti: hospitalizations did not rise. neither did death.

there are individuals who are immunocompromised, either hiv, chemotherapy come on steroids, who did have a rise in hospitalization. people have been making a quicker recovery, then the total time for infection and transmission. lisa: how will this chapter of health history go down? especially as with -- as we see china grab during -- grappling with a different reality. we look back and say the pandemic ran from this time to this time? give us a sense of how you are casting it. dr. hansoti: i'm thinking that summer, when all of our society is vaccinated, children under five, we will be able to say, this is now over. we are now onto a new chapter. there is universal access to vaccines, which is our single most effective tool against individuals dying from covid.

that is a good time to aim for. jonathan: dr. back to handsewn a there, thank you very much. -- dr. back to handsewn he there. -- dr. bhakti hansoti there. thank you. when two people get together will when they are from ireland or the u.k. and start speaking, they speak faster. she goes, i don't understand a word you are saying. [laughter] can you please slow down? lisa: there is that. jonathan: tk, what did you not understand about it? tom: no, it is just, you are foreign, ok? ted lasso. jonathan: do you watch ted lasso with subtitles? tom: no, but there are parts when they start talking -- jonathan: and you don't understand? lisa: you asked tom what are you thinking, and tom says, you are foreign. is that going to be the line of

the morning? jonathan: that is what he says quite often to me. the nasdaq down .4%. yields in the bond market shaping up as follows. the curve is steeper today, because front in the yields are little bit lower. thank you, tom. tom, is the pandemic over? tom: that is a really good question. jonathan: it depends on where you go in america. it depends on which state. tom: we'll have this collective memory of -- i watched death every day, jon, and to me it was getting under 900 deaths. we have accomplished that. we are at 750 deaths. that is spectacular. we need to do more. jonathan: what are you waiting for? who are you waiting for to tell you it is over and what do you want to do you can't do currently? even here in new york city the mandate to go into a restaurant, vaccine mandate, is done with. that is optional for the restaurants. i would say that, lisa, the only

time you have to wear a mask is when you get into a taxicab or uber. that is basically it. lisa: my building just lifted the requirement for masks. i walked into the elevator mask less and there was another individual mask less and it felt wrong. is this ok? are you all right with this? i keep it in my pocket just in case. there is a lack of direction. tom: i still have the mask in my pocket, that is true. jonathan: are you telling me this about social etiquette now? are you serious? lisa: i'm totally serious. you don't ever feel that way? jonathan: about being rude for not having a mask? no. tom: we will be like japan, where there is a lot of people in japan way before the pandemic that wore masks. jonathan: that is fine. tom: they're going to be a lot of people wearing masks. that is all. jonathan: that is fine if you want to. i don't feel rude at all. futures down .25% on the s&p.

on the nasdaq we are down .4%. i will look at the schedule in the commercial break. we will do that at the top of the next hour. that will go really well. we will talk about the games of the weekend. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the street is coming around increasingly to the view we are going to get a double barrel 50 hikes. >> the fed is going to tighten as much as they need to ticket the inflation narrative under control. >> what i see in this yield curve is a soft landing scenario. >> you are going to see the impact of the flatter curve. >> the uncertainty impact is enormous in everything. this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and risa from up it's, i'm jonathan ferro -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a hope for a breakthrough between russia and ukraine in the last 20 four hours, had think it much both sides in the last few hours, pouring cold water over that. tom: what we see in