fed intends to cause any sort of economic recession. >> it is alarming how stark the curve is so early in the cycle. >> it will be difficult for the fed to hike rates aggressively. >> it could be recession or inflationary pressure. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: wrapping up q1 from new york city for the audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. the focus this morning's crew. -- the focus this morning is on crude. tom: the president has to do some strategic planning. i have to be honest, i am skeptical he can move the price. jonathan: it is monsters strategic planning. they could release as much as

180 million barrels of crude. tom: it will make an effect and we have seen it. we can do the data check. brent crude, $101 per barrel but what will it do one week from now, one month from now given the 24 hour news in ukraine? i will say this until i'm blue in the face this morning. it is not going to be april fools. it is a demand economy. we have a boom economy. covid deaths are nearing 699. that is a triumph and it shows the recovery of the economy and that means oil of. jonathan: payrolls on friday. we have seen this before. not on this scale the. will it make -- not on this scale though. will it make a difference? lisa: that is about one third of the entire pool of reserves. going into the driving season.

so there is a question about what this does down the line especially if you have to replenish reserves leaving some to speculate it could push prices higher in the longer-term. jonathan: what is left to do? the president speaking later this morning. the oil executives in front of congress next week. what can they do? lisa: what i want to here is a cohesive plan of what they are working with, what they will be doing with the shale producers, what is their plan to echo yesterday that incorporates the reduction and the reliance on fossil fuels while also supporting the fossil fuels industry given that this transition is complicated and they need to rely on it. jonathan: you talk on the economy. i am with you. it is hard to reconcile what you say with how people feel about it. the most important problem facing the u.s. today, inflation, the cost of living, gas prices. tom: we brought home a $19

chicken last night, an uncooked chicken. $19. that is a new statistic in the household. everyone has stories like that. what i would emphasize is inflation is front and center and you nailed it yesterday with greg valliere when you grilled him. he publishes this morning, joe biden is a one term president because of inflation. jonathan: who is in the stable to step up? tom: i am not going to go there. either republican or democrat, we will sort that out. maybe not q2 starting tomorrow, but that is a q3 question. jonathan: let's wrap up q1. futures right now up 0.1%. what a month it has been even with a major move in the bond market with two year yield up 85 basis points in march. the 10 year yield coming down. lisa: how much are we baking in

and this is why i want to hear what opec-plus has to say. they are meeting on output starting in an hour. how much do they stick to their conservative reservations in conservative increase of output as they talk about the concerns in market still beset with pandemic air restrictions and travel and some of the other issues that have plagued the market? to give you some perspective, i want to give you a look at the strategic petroleum reserve to cushion the blow of the loss of the russian supplies from the market. there are 568 million barrels within the strategic petroleum reserve. that puts into perspective just how big 100 million barrels would be and what position that leaves the u.s. at a time where a lot of these issues are structural in terms of how tight the oil market is. we will get a slew of data including jobless claims as well as february personal income and spending. i want to hear what we hear out of spending. how much does real spending decline?

we have seen the expectation of a decline in real spending. if we get more of this, can we talk demand destruction from inflation? i hear your point about the resilience of the u.s. economy. at what point does that get eroded by some of his loss in buying power -- some of this loss in buying power? president biden will be speaking about how they plan to do this at a time where gasoline prices are still around the highest on record at about $4.24. how much can they do further and what are they planning? this is what i want to hear. what are they planning over the longer term because this does not solve all the problems. all it does is put a band-aid over a moment that is very tenuous. jonathan: thank you. dan fitzpatrick in washington and maria tadeo in budapest. let's start right here, the strategic petroleum reserve, considering a monster release. what are the details that we are aware of? dan: the reporting so far has

been the are discussing roughly one million barrels per day and the maximum number with the us to 180 million barrels total. that is a significant amount. as lisa said, by definition the strategic petroleum reserve is a band-aid. there is no way for them to use this to address the major structural issues about oil and gas availability worldwide. but in the context of that reserves, it would be a historically large release if it did get up to the 180 million or so. they have 568 million in the reserve right now so it would be a significant chunk of what they have built up. tom: this is a move within democracies and other forms of government. maria tadeo comes to us from hungary. i think that adds up to 16 years, maria. this guy is controversial. how does the illiberal deal with

the oil charts -- oil prices jack was talking about? maria: he is hoping for another term on sunday. that is why we are here. the general election for victor urban. he has been traded as a man who protects christian and family values. he is an ill liberal politician. how does he deal with oil? he says the way to deal with this is by stating -- staying out of the war. you can still watch russian tv in this country. a number of satellites have been taken off in europe. this is presented as freedom for hungary or going to war. we should not get involved in this. he is against an energy embargo. he is helping refugees support

but you are starting to see the cracks in central and eastern europe. eastern countries normally working together. right now, they are not even on speaking terms. lisa: we have seen cracks throughout the european union as we deal with the russia situation, in particular what germany does with imports of natural gas. yesterday there was discussion about possibly having gas holidays, people reducing their consumption. what is the latest on that? what is the pushback in terms of consumers to such a proposal? maria: i think it would be very hard and if anything, what we are seeing now and germany and across europe is that this hurts drivers, the middle class, and there is the feeling that everything is becoming expensive. there is real pushback across the european union, not just germany. spain has inflation in double digits in the prime minister has

approached this everyday in the capital of madrid. a lot of this is beginning to bite in a real way. tom: to get our morning started, we need you to get out the fitzpatrick calendar and give us a read on with the democrats finally address a one or two term joe biden. greg valliere says it is tangible. what part of 2022 does this become part of your focus? jack: there is not a lot of focus right now on biden's reelection process -- prospects. it is looking tough for democrats congressionally, but they are at least having relevant conversations that will play into the electoral success or failure congressionally and for the white house. that is why there is pressure to at least get back to some sort of, they are not calling it

build back better, but some sort of another legislative push to reduce prescription drug prices, some other major accomplishment they can cite smaller than what they have discussed before. clearly, talking to democrats, there is not some sense that biden is carrying them and his polling numbers are helpful. they are more concerned about their own polling numbers and their own struggles this november. jonathan: good to catch up. jack fitzpatrick and maria tadeo. the cost at the pump right now, $4.24 per gallon. tom: i asked my drivers, the bentley has been in the shop and we cannot get parts because of the war in london and shipping. i have been in cars more and they are all up to $4.95. jonathan: i know you feel better. tom: discusses, this is important -- discuss

this. this is important. jonathan: think about the driving that some drivers have to do outside of the country just to get to work. it is going to bite either way. it is binding everybody. in europe, they will face higher energy cost as well. tom: do you think we will switch to smaller cars? that is a huge deal for lisa. lisa: you actually are seeing signs of demand destruction with people buying fewer gallons of gas. there is some anecdotal data so perhaps they are altering. jonathan: tom wants to know is people will drive smaller cars. lisa: no, that is not the american way. we have learned that time and time again. jonathan: electric? lisa: let's hope. tom: we cannot demand destruction and brandy melville. is that possible? brandy melville. jonathan: good stuff.

futures up 0.1%. crude down by more than 6%. $101. from new york, this is bloomberg. lisa: the biden administration is weighing in on massive release of oil from u.s. reserves to fight inflation. one million barrels of oil per day may be released for months for up to 180 million barrels. president biden will speak today on efforts to reduce energy prices. opec is refusing to engage with the energy crisis triggered by the war in ukraine. the opec-plus coalition is expected to stick to its schedule of gradual oil output increases. that plan was released last july and has been followed ever since. saudi arabia has prioritized its relationship with russia which cole leads the opec-plus alliance. the white house says that the

russian president has been misinformed by his advisors about his military's performance in ukraine. a spokeswoman says the same thing has happened regarding the sanctions on the russian economy. she says that is based on u.s. intelligence findings. apple is exploring new sources of a memory chip in its iphone. bloomberg has learned that includes the first chinese supplier. a production destruction at one of apple's key japanese partners exposed the risk to its global supply. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

>> it is clear that removing accommodations is required but how much and how aggressively accommodations should be removed is far more uncertain. that is not an argument forestalling the removal of accommodations but i do think it suggests that a steady deliberate approach for the path of policy will provide space to monitor developments. jonathan: that was the kansas city fed president. good morning. futures down by 0.02% on the dow

jones. on the s&p 500, we are up. yields are down by a couple of basis points. i said that an accident. euro-dollar 111. the dow is unchanged. the kremlin seems to think that the europeans should pay for gas. the kremlin is out again this morning with volumes and gas contracts unaffected. tom: where is this going? this is real time this week. no one has a clue. germany, russia, payments, and flow of hydrocarbons. jonathan: when i take a step back, i see a buyer that wants to buy gas at a salad that needs to sell gas. they are having a conversation of what is needed to pay for the gas but the europeans still want to buy russian gas and the

russians still want to sell it. where does this go? in war, who knows. tom: a famous surveillance reset is march 31 when the year really starts, not the foolishness of 12/31. we reset with marvin loh, state street market strategist. what is the distinction of your reset this morning? marvin: i think first and foremost is monetary policy. we have a much better sense of where the fed wants to get this year and in terms of trying to get there quickly, we are getting to neutral very quickly, pressing somewhere around 2.25, 2.5 in the year funds rate --

end of year funds rate. getting through the first quarter, we can get a much better idea of how we want to approach 2023. that is where the inflation story goes and that is where this terminal rate starts to come into focus. jonathan: everyone is talking about this restoration halfway court. the ceo talking about a sharp deceleration in consumer activity. what do you make of that? marvin: he talks about everything in that call. jonathan: you are being diplomatic. marvin: you never know what avenues you cross in life. but it does show that there is demand destruction occurring and there is substitution that needs to happen and it is an interesting demographic that they go after where there is a certain amount of wealth, but not the high end wealth and that

is where a lot of these high prices when it comes to oil, food, affects a group that should be able to ultimately get through this and we have seen demand destruction. that is important to me because that is what the fed needs to do to get this inflation story in check. lisa: i am not going to be as diplomatic. key through the kitchen sink at a problem leaving people to wonder is it exactly as you say which is some sort of slow down in demand or is it a syncretic model with their business model -- syncretic problem with their business model? you are basically saying it is the idea of a slowdown in consumer appetite that you are starting to see elsewhere that will become the theme over the next quarter. marvin: i think it is something to focus on because that is what the fed needs to do given that higher rates will have no impact

on energy. the food discussion is one that will take a while and that is it big part of the increase month-to-month. it is the consumer demand construction -- destruction that we have to get a sense of in terms of how aggressive the fed thinks it needs to be in 2023 around those topics. tom: you are making jokes about this. i had the modern aviator flight desk for $8,000 and it was too low. i could not my legs under it and i had to send it back. jonathan: you are only saying that because you know i've got it. i can tell you lots of things. world class logistics. i know i am going to get the delivery. i know it will arrive in a couple of weeks. if it is in stock, i will see you next week. questionable quality of the products. i have sent some stuff back. i am just talking about my personal experience. tom: i am with you. they are very entrepreneurial. they nailed the delivery but

some of the other stuff is a little suspect. jonathan: it starts to become a lifestyle business. in a shop, in a store. tom: our guest is going, why did i get up for this? rh and others are looking at the new technology. it is about new technology and new habits from the pandemic. how do we adjust our equity portfolios for the fact that we are all going to use amazon, going to get boxes, and these companies have to adapt and adjust to our pandemic hiatus? -- arcade to make habits -- our pandemic habits? marvin: i do think that there is a longer lag time in order to see how these companies wind up becoming.

from a waiting perspective, if you are just buying the index, you are already getting increased exposure to those companies because they have performed well over the last several years and they performed very well over the last several weeks and it shows the strength in that model. certainly you can take -- overweight some of those but it is part of the discussion because whether it is a longer duration flight because slow growth reemerges or they have some competitive advantage in the market is shown year and year again. jonathan: thank you for your patience and for the conversation. just getting a headline out of italy. dragi had a conversation with vladimir putin. he said conditions for a cease-fire have not been met. tom: i think it has been really problematic to say the least. jonathan: we have to catch up with richard haass, the

president of the council on foreign relations. that is coming up shortly as we close out q1 and restart 2022. futures up 0.1%. yields up a couple of basis points. from new york city, this is bloomberg.

jonathan: with today's fantastic cast coming up, -- fantastic guest coming up, the s&p up by more than 5%. to your yields up by 85 basis points. -- two year yield up by five basis points. in the oil market, crude bloomberg. wti and brent as well. on the wti, we are down by six percentage points. a conversation about a monster reserve release of the strategic petroleum reserve come up to one million per day. bloomberg reporting it could be close to 180 million overall. this conversation is coming on the day that opec-plus has another meeting.

lisa: the irony is does this put pressure on opec-plus or does it take pressure off of them to increase their output because the u.s. is flooding the market with what they have in their reserves? we will see how they framed this considering the fact that in some ways they take the pressure off. jonathan: will this meeting last more than the last meeting? tom: you brought that up yesterday. that was very good. jonathan: 13 minutes earlier this month. tom: this was for the united arab emirates oil minister who is good out of the university of tulsa. he really did not budge from the linkage of russia to the persian gulf. jonathan: is it about politics, economics, the oil market? is this reserve release, does it change anything? something you would push back against? tom: it is every nation for themselves. right now, richard haass president of the council on foreign relations and far more

than that with his public service to the nation in northern ireland negotiations. he joins us with my book of the summer and number of summers ago, "the world, a brief introduction." we are thrilled the ambassador could join us this morning. in your newest essay, my favorite project syndicate, you talked beautifully about american overreach. they are all these phrases in the richard haass world. the clash of civilizations, the post-american world, and now american overreach. what will the new overreach look like? richard: this has become an assumption in the wake of afghanistan and the 2003 iraq war. the biggest problem facing american foreign policy is we are trying to do too much. now you have the russian invasion of ukraine and it is a reminder that classic geopolitics have not gone away and that the new danger might

not be overreach, but might be under reach which is another word for isolationism. we have seen voices calling for that in both parties. i actually think one of the things coming out of this crisis will be a new equilibrium. we have already seen some signs of that in the administration's budget, national security spending is going to go up. but the united states now faces a world of a russian threat to europe. chinese assertiveness at least in the asia-pacific. iran has not given up its nuclear ambitions. north korea is expanding its nuclear capabilities. we have a rack of other global challenges. the united states has to address it. tom: the new isolationism cannot be the chicago tribune isolationism of our parents with the modern technology, the speed of information, the reporting of intelligence by the united states and the u.k..

the speed of news means it is a new isolationism. how do you see that playing out? richard: it makes no sense. we are two years out of a virus that began in wuhan, china until -- and killed nearly one million americans. climate change affects us every day. we just had the 20th anniversary of 9/11. globalization is a reality, not a choice. the choice is how we deal with it. american isolationism now is truly a self-defeating and dangerous policy. lisa: let's talk about right now , this conflict, this war in ukraine and what this does to the road order as you see it if we are talking in geopolitical strategy terms. how much is there a winner and how much is there a loser? richard: there are more losers than winners, which is almost always the case. later has come out of it -- nato

has come out of it in much better shape. i think the biden administration has handled it pretty well. germany, what a turn around. ukraine has tremendous resilience but look at the structure. a quarter of the people are homeless, displaced, or refugees. the big loser would be russia. look what russia has done to its position in the world, to its economy. it is beginning to lose some of its best and brightest and the army looks like a military. russia is the biggest loser but also from a dangerous loser. we do not know how mr. putin will react to this, how he might lash out or even escalate. lisa: when you talk about how nato is a winner and germany in particular as they try to strengthen their place, what is your view is how lasting -- on how lasting this move away from russian oil will be? how much can the russian -- european nations affect the

replacement of those russian reserves? richard: one is the fiscal part of transitioning out of dependence on russian gas. we are talking about years. we will have to build the ability to export liquid natural gas. europe will have to build the capacity to import at scale. that is something that happens over years, not months or weeks. and then the question is whether the politics -- what are the politics. that depends on what russia looks like over time. do we get to a post-putin period? i expect there will be voices in germany that say we can relax some of the sanctions, some of the old fissures within the western alliance will begin to emerge if we see a change russia but at the moment, we cannot count on that. that is not a strategy. tom: richard haass, where the realists -- were the realists correct?

richard: i think this is one of these debates about whether we mishandled the end of the cold war. it will go on for some time. even hindsight is not 2020. we did mishandled dealing with russia in the years after the collapse of the soviet union and the end of the cold war. i would point out that does not justify what vladimir putin has done. we mishandled some of the post-cold war diplomacy. but in no way does that justify what putin did. tom: let's get down to the nitty-gritty. in 2008, i cannot remember what the meeting was. it started with a b. what do i know? the answer is condi rice and richard gates got hammered. they did not listen to the pros about what to do on the eastern front. are they going to listen this time to the pros that are nurtured by institutions like

what you build at cfr? full disclosure, i'm a member of cfr. but they did not listen in 2008, did day? -- did they? richard: madeleine albright was one of the members. condi rice in 2008 with steve hadley. that was the view. even now you will have people who will say we should have done more nato expansion. that is the problem. nato has never expanded to ukraine and you have the opposite point of view. we do not know what russian political culture would have emerged as so we do not know whether nato enlargement in the mishandling's of dealings with russia brought this about or would have come anyway. tom: let's not do the counterfactual thing. richard haass, bring it forward for the next secretary of state, which way do they tilt? rice or albright?

richard: what we want to do is limit our involvement in europe. that is not the critical arena for the 21st century. i would say we want to free ourselves up as best we can to deal with china, the endo pacific, and global issues. the 21st century will not be decided in europe. what we need to do is manage things in europe, put a ceiling on them so we can focus on global issues and other geographies. jonathan: richard haass, clinic as always at the council on foreign relations. thank you very much. as richard pointed out, there will always be disagreements over how this is being dealt with and how we will deal with it for years to come. tom: i want to suggest this and this is great respect for everybody listening and hearing and everybody was 2020 hindsight and foresight. the actual determinant in every moment like this is there is one guy, maybe a set of people that want to go rogue and that is really what we are dealing with.

we are chitchatting and all that, but we are dealing with a guy that made a significant rogue decision and that is always the case. jonathan: we are focused on that guy right now. mario draghi had a call with vladimir putin. he said this, the eu companies could continue to pay for gas in dollars. can you square what is going on here, the strangest agreement between the europeans and the russians in public and on the phone call, all is ok? lisa: i am making this up but i think it goes something like this where the kremlin said we are going to charge rubles and basically europe said, no you are not. and they said, ok, because they do not have leverage. they would love to give strength to the ruble with some sort of proclamation and some sort of policy on this front, but it is not going to happen and they cannot give up the income that they get from europe right now and they do not want to cannibalize their future business there. jonathan: the europeans cannot give up the gas for now. in the meantime, we are looking

ahead to an address by the president of the united states later this morning. expectations are high about what he can do to soften the blow of high gas prices in the united states and the team at bloomberg reporting that we could see a monster reserve release at some point, perhaps even announced today. tom: scope and scale makes this different. i am hugely skeptical of the value of these things but i agree, the magnitude that we are going to see the president announced, that will get your attention. jonathan: we have seen them do it a few times over the last few months and it has not worked out. crude snapped back again. they are going even bigger, according to reporting. crude is down 6%. from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." lisa: keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i am lisa mateo. the blue-black -- the biden administration may use the strategic oil reserve.

they may use roughly one million barrels of oil per day for months to combat rising gasoline prices. the release could be as much as 180 million barrels. president biden will speak today on efforts on energy costs. ukraine says talks with russia will resume on friday. the negotiations will take place via videoconference. in person talks in turkey this week did not produce a cease fire or major progress toward a peace deal. russia did agree to reduce military activity in northern ukraine. in china, covid lockdowns are stressing the economy and threatening global supply chains. purchasing managers index for march showed lockdowns in several cities stunted factory activity. covid controls in shanghai are impacting operations and reducing efficiency. british companies will feel the bite of inflation. a record number of them expect to increase wages over the next year according to the lloyd bank business barometer.

they intend to boost average raises by 2%. other businesses surveyed expect wage hikes of more than 5%. another payday for jp morgan ceo jamie dimon. he just received over 56 william dollars of jp morgan stock before taxes. it comes with an incentive program the bank valued at less than half that much. the latest involved -- the latest windfall was handled by the surging business during the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

>> i do think so far we are seeing clearly the situation in ukraine has put inflationary

pressures into the economy. you can see that in gas prices, wheat, aluminum, nickel, fertilizer. i have not seen a drop in demand. jonathan: the richmond fed speaking to michael mckee. good morning. futures are higher by 0.1% on the s&p. the 10 year down three basis points, a monster move in the bond market. in terms of yield, all the way out to 30's. crude down by six percentage points to $101.20 as we could have a monster release from the administration. all of a sudden, consensus from the federal reserve with a 50 basis point move in may and again in june. jp morgan has done exactly the same thing in the past day. tom: this will be the easy 50 basis point lift.

after that, it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. jonathan: the first one, maybe. but consensus is back-to-back. . tom: more than back-to-back. jonathan: 50, 50, and 25 after that for the rest of this year and into next year. tom: it is wicked, to use the phrase from boston, it is wicked. we will do this. jobs day tomorrow. usually it will be like april 7, april 8. no, it is april 1. rubeela farooqi joins us, chief economist for high frequency economics. just piercing analysis on the u.s. economy and the global. let's go to jobs day. is it a fully employed america? rubeela: the job market is looking pretty strong in terms of job creation in another itself. -- in and of itself.

the things we are looking out for right now are participation and wages. we saw moderation of wages in february. if we can see that go forward, it could take the pressure off. participation and the labor force, back is something we are concentrating on. the job market has a lot of positive momentum. tom: my study of economic history is wage growth never catches up with inflation. am i right on that? rubeela: there have been episodes where we have seen just going into the pandemic where we had wages that were higher than the inflation rate. right now what we are seeing is a huge distortion. with inflation and prices, it is a big challenge for households.

it is a big challenge for businesses right now. if they are able to pass on increases in terms of higher prices to consumers, how long that lasts is an open question. we are looking at the consumer to see when the pushback happens and that either happens in february. if that shifts into march and april, then we will be looking at growth estimates being revised down and that does have implications. right now the fed is very strong on inflation, to keep inflation expectations anchored. but the follow-through, we expect 50 basis point in may and june. we expect another 25 in july. that is 150 basis points since the start of the pandemic -- 250 basis points since the start of

the pandemic. we do not want to slow growth so much that the economy goes into recession. lisa: i was listening to thomas barkin yesterday at the fed and he was talking about how companies can pass along some of the inflationary inputs to their own businesses to consumers is a negative, that that pricing power actually gives him pause. how much will strong earnings from u.s. companies because the fed to go even faster than what people are expecting? rubeela: that is certainly a possibility but i do not think there is going to be a pushback. i do not think companies will be able to pass on price increases forever. i think the consumer is extremely sensitive. low income households are being hit really hard right now from high energy, high gasoline, high food prices and there does not seem to be any relief around the corner. i do think that as they allocate courses of their budget toward increases, there will be pushback. i do not think these things will

have unlimited power to pass on price increases. lisa: what is the chance of a soft landing? rubeela: that is the million-dollar question. it is a very difficult thing. that that is in a difficult spot. if they are as sensitive as we think they will become a they will pay attention. they will frontload rate hikes and they will be sensitive to how the economy and the labor market participation interact. there are only a handful of instances where they have been able to do it but we are still positive on the economic outlook. we think that growth can come around 2%, 2.3%. but really there is a wide range of uncertainty surrounding economic inflation and labor market outcomes. jonathan: thank you, rubeela farooqi of high frequency economics on the fed's next move.

david at goldman, we caught up with him. get ready for negative earnings prices concentrated around the consumer something to look for. tom: it is the growth versus value simplicity, which does not capture this sector divergence. it is really simple. we said this yesterday. mark gurman out with an important apple story. great. there are so many stocks that have dramatically underperformed. i guess it is normal. jonathan: sure. tom: i'm sorry, there is a lot of pain out there. jonathan: would you like to pick one? home depot down 26% year to date. that is a struggle. tom: you are shopping at restoration hardware. i am shopping at home depot. jonathan: you just told us you spent $19 on a chicken. i have no idea where you are doing your shopping. where did she buy it?

tom: she bought it at the convenience store. maybe somebody on the street. jonathan: did you ask for a receipt? tom: it was $115 and it was four bags of doritos and some chicken. jonathan: the year ahead for these kind of industries is going to get very interesting. lisa: especially because we already baked in so much momentum from the pandemic and the aftermath of that. at what point does that wane? the stock market is not the economy. if the fed wants to tighten financial conditions, are they effectively doing it? are we measuring it correctly when we look at the large-cap stocks that are divorced from the underlying fundamentals a little bit when you look at how much airpods cost? jonathan: it is just equities supporting financial conditions or is it something outside of stocks? lisa: credit because you have so much refinancing and balance sheets. honestly, this is a conundrum for the fed. how much do they have to cringe consumer demand -- crimp

consumer demand? jonathan: the nasdaq slightly firmer, closing on march and closing down the first quarter. yields coming in by four basis points. from new york, this is bloomberg.

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>> it is always hard to predict what the fed is going to do. it is even harder in an environment like this. >> i don't think the fed intends to cause any sort of recession by over tightening. >> it is going to be really difficult for the fed to hike rates aggressively. >> you cannot have a soft landing. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: closing out q1 of 2022. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: i get it, it is an american story. we k