>> it is always hard to predict what the fed is going to do. it is even harder in an environment like this. >> i don't think the fed intends to cause any sort of recession by over tightening. >> it is going to be really difficult for the fed to hike rates aggressively. >> you cannot have a soft landing. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: closing out q1 of 2022. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: i get it, it is an american story.

we know what a gallon of gas costs. but it is heating up in europe as we enter the later part of this week. what is it, a chess match, a game of chicken between germany, italy, and mr. boudin on the price of oil -- and mr. putin on the price of oil? jonathan: the administration, according to the team here at bloomberg, reporting that maybe we release one million barrels of oil a day for something up to 118 million barrels of oil. tom: i am going to talk to professor will kennedy and javier blas about that. i am skeptical as an amateur about any kind of long-term benefit from that. maybe i am wrong. jonathan:jonathan: -- jonathan: wti down 6% this money -- this morning. lisa: what is going to be the process of rebuilding

inventories, and what does that due to a market that is already tight? jonathan: so far, so good for this economy. the labor market, how tight is that? tomorrow, 490,000 is the estimate for payrolls, for unemployment, lower to 7%. lisa: this is causing angst for the federal reserve. do we get even more hawkish? right now, as julian emanuel said yesterday, the only bubble is in the bull market for how hawkish people are. jonathan: that of the call for the fed. for this administration, 3.7% unemployment rate, and to see the president's approval rating is low as it is. tom: it is stunning, and what is important is there are select economists who say this economy is so a powerful -- is so powerful, can you imagine 2.9%? some are thinking about that. jonathan: the issue the president and the white house has right now for this administration, the data point that matters is not that one.

it is the cpi print. tom: i agree. before it was the talking point, you and lisa have been great on it. but now it has exploded. this is a way bigger deal for ecb, lagarde, and europe than it is over here. jonathan: did you hear the vice president this morning? the headlines from him read us follows. he hopes the inflation peak is reached into to three months. he still a specs -- he still expects the economy to grow into 120 pool -- in 2022. doesn't that underline and emphasize how much of a problem they've got in europe right now? lisa: you don't want to hear your central banker saying we are still hopeful that perhaps we can eke out some growth at a time when people are talking about stagflation. jonathan: unreal. as we close out the month of march and q1, here's the price action for you this morning. on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2022. it has felt like a long one. let's put it that way.

futures unchanged on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up about 0.3%. euro-dollar just about below 1.11, down by 0.6%. we have talked down the moving crude. 6% on wti. lisa: really deteriorating throughout the morning as people assess the impact of this potential oil reserve release by the united states. right now the consortium of the biggest oil producers are gathering to talk about output. perhaps it will be more than 13 minutes long. how much does opec+ use the oil reserve release we are expecting from the united states as an excuse not to go further? how much does this give them a reprieve at a time when they really plan on only increasing outputs marginally in order to stay with their previous plans? at 8:30 a.m., the data dump. how much can they continue to fall? we get february personal income and spending data. how much does personal spending

start to go down as we get the inflationary inputs? we are seeing on the margin some signs. is restoration hardware the outlier in terms of their business strategy, or are we seeing real demand destruction as prices go up? at 1:30 pm which find out -- at 1:30 p.m., we find out exact you what the u.s. plan is. we mentioned california and how the prices are much higher than that. how much does this become a linchpin heading into the midterm election, and how much is this a strategic midterm police at this point? jonathan: if it is that, they are going to be doing it for a while, aren't they? the midterms are some months away. lisa: which is why we might get to 180 million barrels. tongue-in-cheek, how much is this a band-aid at a time when we are dealing with some deeper issues that policy has to be nuanced to fix, and it will take a long time to do so? jonathan: thank you.

your team coverage starts right now with bloomberg's jack fitzpatrick in washington, maria tadeo in budapest, hungary. what is reporting indicating about what we could hear a little bit later? jack: the basics are the consideration is about one million barrels per day release from the strategic petroleum reserve. the maximum number that has been discussed is about 100 he million barrels -- 180 million barrels total over a number of months. they have not put out the specifics on the time range, but that is about 1/3 of the oil they've got in the strategic petroleum reserve. they are still trying to lock down some kind of an agreement so that this is not the u.s. acting alone and this is in conjunction with a broader international release of oil reserves, but those are the basic numbers they have discussed now that they hope will make a difference over a matter of months.

tom: maria in hungary, you sent me a memo on the draghi-conversation -- draghi-putin conversation. this is a kgb kind of guy talking to the former head of the ecb with m.i.t. chops, and your memo reads i get derivative swap contract. does mr. putin speak differently to the financial guy from m.i.t. then he does to scholz and the rest? maria: he probably did, and if you look at that press conference i mario draghi, he almost made it look like president could in was not able to explain the payment system that he wants. he also says that putin told him thing would change for european companies, that the contract in europe can still continue to be paid in euros, and that mario draghi is saying it is my

impression that swapping a contract, swapping currency, and swapping the way you cash it is a, difficult, but b, also a breach of sanctions. lisa: basically, the kremlin said pay us in rubles. the european union said no, and they said ok. maria: at one point, someone is going to have to blink. cannot speak for what the russian government is saying. they tell you they can definitely change this contract and that europe will finally pay everything in rubles, but i can tell you when i speak to my contacts in brussels, they say this is a two-way street. if they cut the flows, we are probably going into recession. we are going to have a big problem in the winter. but this is a two-way street. at this point, russia has half of its reserves that are frozen. they need to pay for a war effort. you know the longer a war goes

on, the more expensive it becomes. the economy of the russian federation is under immense pressure, and they need the cash. so they believe at this point, faced with a choice, do we take euros? do we not catch the payment and not have money for ourselves? they are going to go for the euro. that is what the european union believes, russia will have to blink. jonathan: let's finish on the united states. if the u.s. unveils the plan that bloomberg has described in our reporting overnight and this morning, does that confirm that the outreach to riyadh failed? jack: it is probably a reflection of at least the mitigated expectations for opec and opec+ that the u.s. has not gotten things to entirely go their way. there is still a broader conversation about who they can work with to get international releases of oil reserves or an increase of supply and some way,

but the fact we are talking about this now is a reflection of at least some level of disappointment with opec and opec+. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick and maria tadeo, team coverage on the energy issues on both sides of the atlantic, and they are issues all right. big ones. tom: can i mention the corporate story, restoration hardware and the rest of it? mark gorman's definitive on apple, and he has the definitive story this morning on the first national bank of apple. this is what is coming down the road. i've got the wallet on my phone like everybody else, and it appears mr. cook and all are going to -- mr. cook et. -- mr. cook et. al. are going to try to bring payment into the platform. jonathan: part of an ambitious effort to reduce its reliance on

outside partners over time. that according to people with knowledge of the matter. tom: i had hair when grocery stores were talking about doing banking in grocery stores. it failed. there was the whole dean witter financial systems thing. it failed. if anybody is going to do this, do you bet on apple? jonathan: i think i had hair back then as well. how is the credit card working out? that is the first effort, isn't it? tom: i have been out on twitter. i hated with a passion. jonathan: why do you hate it? tom: it is just clumsy. jonathan: what is clumsy about the credit card? you've got to tell us specifically. tom: it is like, throw the phone. just let me pay the bill. jonathan: so you don't like the payments on the iphone. that is not working out for you? tom: i just think they are working at it. it is a work in progress. jonathan: tom keene's personal thoughts on the card effort from the apple iphone. [laughter] tom: i don't have a card. vet bill has it.

jonathan: send your thoughts to tim apple and let him know. this is bloomberg. ritika: -- lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. bloomberg has learned one million barrels a day may be released. president biden is set to speak today on efforts to reduce energy prices. meanwhile, opec and its allies are refusing to engage with the energy crisis triggered by the war in ukraine. at its meeting today, the opec+ coalition is expected to stick to its schedule of gradual oil output increases. that plan was reached last july and has been followed ever since. saudi arabia prioritized its relationship with russia.

the white house says russian president vladimir putin has been misinformed by his advisors about his military's performance in ukraine. a spokeswoman says the same thing has happened regarding the impact of sanctions on the russian economy. she said that is based on u.s. intelligence findings. some of europe's biggest airlines are renewing their call for more government aid and legislation to help the industry decarbonize. the ceo's of iag, easyjet, and ryanair gathered today in brussels. they argue that money is needed as airlines make the costly transition to cleaner energy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are already a standard deviation away from a black swan event on things like inflation, but also in europe, we have also the major geopolitical shock of the war. we are in a very difficult situation. jonathan: nouriel roubini. and that is just the first quarter. the nasdaq 100 positive about 0.2%. yields on tens down three basis points are get crude down 5.8%

to $101.60, as bloomberg reports we could get a monster reserve release from the administration that could be announced later today. happening right now is nato secretary-general jens stoltenberg addressing an audience once again of reporters and saying russia has repeatedly lied about its actions. russia is regrouping for an offensive in the donbass. remember earlier this week, we talked about a pledge, a promise from the russians to sharply cut operations around ukraine's capital. jens stoltenberg of nato suggesting that is just a regroup for an offensive in donbass. tom: this is not just the jenna when from nato, the former leader of norway. this is everybody in the zeitgeist and the last 48 hours. i am going to give major credit to the british media and the british briefing. i don't have the name. i believe it is so james fleming, their head of security in your united kingdom, but he

is absolutely heated about their measurement of duplicity. jonathan: those promises met with skepticism worldwide, and we can go over point by point over the last six weeks where russia has lied repeatedly, and jens stoltenberg saying that again, they have lied repeatedly. we don't believe their actions are for anything other than to regroup to attack the donbass. so actions on the ground speak for themselves. tom: we will continue to follow that. maria tadeo today in budapest. right now an exceptionally important brief on the equity market and how it correlates to commodities, bonds, and the rest of the financial world. mandy xu is chief equity derivatives strategist at credit suisse. i was going to give you a new job, chief executive, but you don't want that headache. [laughter] what it comes down to is the known known of the derivative space, which is in every case, it is always asymmetric.

what is the lead asymmetry right now as we enter q2? mandy: what everyone is focused on in the derivative market right now is the divergence we are seeing between equities versus all of the other asset classes. over the past week, what we have seen is equity volatility continue to normalize, whereas if you look across other asset classes, rates, credit, oil, gold, fx, volatility continues to go higher. what is driving this divergence? particularly, i would say does most pronounced but tuning -- announced between the rates market versus the equities market. we have seen implied volatility levels back to the march extremes. if you can take a look back at a longer history come outside of march 2020, you have to go back to the global financial crisis to see as much volatility in the interest rates market. tom: you talk about normalized.

let's go from bell curve to a plus on distribution. how are the pails doing right now in the different classes, particularly in the stock market? mandy: in the stock market, it has come in very significant lee. it is measures of risk, for example skew and convexity come on tails at risk. the index has come in near a low, so one of the trades we like in this environment is looking at upside in the vix, taking advantage of the asymmetry we are seeing in the equity market versus other asset classes and taking invented to that reset lower of risk in this equity space. lisa: pulling this all together into something that is not in the greek space, how much is this a bet that even though we are seeing unprecedented volatility, that is not the main tail risk for markets, that that

will lead equity markets much more stable over the long-term? mandy: mandy: i would say -- mandy: i would say obviously the yield curve inverting historically has a good track record of forecasting recession, but in terms of a tradable signal, you also see skepticism around the timing of just how imminent we see that recession. historically, the lead time is around two years. could it be even longer this time around? i would certainly say in the equity market, there's more optimism around the fed being able to bring in inflation without driving the economy into recession, whereas in the bond market, i think is a very high am out of skepticism that that is going to be the case. jonathan: mandy xu of credit suisse, awesome as always. her colleague jonathan golub wrote this.

that is what men of people believe, it won't be enough. lisa: lisa: when he was looking at -- lisa: when he was looking at what the real rates were, the fact that inflation has not moved more than 25 basis points, we have to keep her mining ourselves just stopped buying bonds and their balance sheet is near record highs. to give a sense of how easy on a terry conditions are seems to be underpinning some of the optimism in the equity market. jonathan: let's just say expectations have changed a lot through this year into 2023. crude is the move you need to look at. the bpi -- wti around $100 with a big move lower of about 6%. a story we put out your at bloomberg that this administration is considering a monster reserve release. a lot of people reacting to this, including bleakley advisory. "when something doesn't work, just do more of it?!"

tom: may a little harsh. jonathan: that's what he said, tom. not me. [laughter] tom: i know. i've got a radel in my desk chez radel -- a rattle in my desk today. what is this, pile on tom day? jonathan: what are you doing with your microphone? tom: vet bill is under here and his kennel is vibrating. bring your dog to work. jonathan: would you like to tell us why you disagree? tom: i don't disagree with peter book far. what i am suggesting is it is about nominal gdp. gross, 1%. atlanta gdp now, inflation 7%, which is 8% growth. that is why he can be optimistic. jonathan: stop dancing around

it. why do you disagree about the crude release? why is that harsh? tom: how many releases have we seen? i will take your point, it is a big deal. jonathan: thank you. futures a little softer, down 0.1% on the s&p. i am pleased you take that point. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: what a first quarter. what a first month of january, was a big selloff in tech. then february tom: i thought you meant tottenham. jonathan: i was trying to be serious about the first quarter. kind of encapsulates how the show has gone this morning. the biggest month of gains since october. this morning, just a little softer, -0.1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, positive i about 0.1% get big move in the equity market. tremendous moves in the bond market. your two-year yield is up 85 basis points month to date, a massive move. starting to think about a 50 basis point hike from the federal reserve. michael feroli of jp morgan

serving in the towel, saying 50 this meeting, 50 after that. three hikes this year, five next year, and we can get the depot rate at the ecb back to one point 50%. that is an out of consensus call in a big way. let's say we can achieve this kind of rate hikes from the ecb, together with these rate hikes from the federal reserve. you've got to reprice the whole european universe which has been a massive anchor for the global bond market over the last 10 years. if we can deliver that, i've got no idea where this one goes. tom: we will assess that with a leading authority in a moment. i want to say this with immense respect by our team, particularly aggi on the border with poland, maria and ann marie, and all of the agony in ukraine, this is an acute reality. dollar-won from 12.312 3.31 has

-- from 12/31 to 3/31 has barely budged. a market of crisis. lisa: it's not a market. i'm sorry, but at the same time, it is nice to quote what vladimir putin would like to see in terms of the reflection of progress in the war. jonathan: let's quote another one, crude. wti and brent looks like this. down 5.5% on wti. $101.97. we seen this before. crude gaps lower, they release reserves. this time, they are going bigger. will it make a big difference? lisa: we were harsh on tom. we didn't mean to pile on completely. but you did say scale does matter. this will matter in the short term. in the long-term term, does it have the opposite effect?

that is what a lot of people are repping their heads around. if they have to rebuild and there hasn't been a material change in the structure of the oil market, does that just kick prices back up, and then some? jonathan: we will find out a little bit later potentially. was that somebody for tk? lisa: yeah, i feel bad. he's playing with his kennel. tom: what is the year? lisa: i didn't mean to pile on. jonathan: the softer side of 'br amo. [laughter] with some single names this morning, let's say good morning to remain. -- to romaine. romaine: occidental petroleum down about 2.3%. you talk about the end of the month. occidental the best performer, ending the s&p 500 -- ending the quarter the best on the s&p.

you are not really going to find too many other stocks that really outperformed in this market over the last couple of months. the top 20 stocks in the s&p 500 your to date are all energy related or commodities related like nucor, up about 8% in the premarket. as for one of the worst performers in the s&p 500 so far this year, that belongs to a lot of those high valuation discretionary names, including netflix. netflix shares higher by about 0.4% in the premarket, but netflix ordered for its worst quarterly performance going back to june of 2012. keep it going here. some things to keep your eye on on the day. amd shares under pressure after some concerns about the cyclical risk out there for some of these chip stocks. keep an eye on the marijuana stocks. you are starting to see some potential progress on federal legislation to decriminalize marijuana. a vote in the house could occur as soon as today or tomorrow. sundial up about 5%. tilray basically unchanged on

the day. the ceo will be joining me a little later this afternoon on bloomberg television. tom: nice plug. "the close" this afternoon. it is the end of the quarter. we recalibrate. george sarah vale us -- george saravelos recalibrate against the motion of europe flat on its back , sayingbuy euro -- saying buy euro, strong euro for six big figures. why will the euro appreciate? george: i look at euro-dollar from two dimensions, the u.s. and american side and the european side. if we start with the u.s. and focus on the fed repricing, the key for me is as we go ahead now , every extra fed hike is going to be less and less supportive to the dollar, and the rationale is simple. the u.s. is moving to a late

cycle environment. we have been writing about the risks of curb inversion for a long time, and the curve did invert this week. but as that happened, as you have to price in even more fed hikes, that is going to challenge the growth narrative and lead to a slowdown in inflows into the u.s. if you look at the funding of the u.s. current account visit, they are already starting to deteriorate quite dramatically. so it is becoming less and less favorably inclined to go into the u.s. the european one, i don't think whether it is about the ecb goes in july, september or december. negative rates in europe have been this in the most important driver of the week euro over the last decade. it has meant a huge shift in capital flows. the entire european financial system has been structured around negative rates. just in the space of a few weeks, you have seen 80%, 90% of

the german yield curve kickback, and i think that is a hugely consequential event that should eventually mean significant depreciation. jonathan: summer of 2014 was when they took the deposit rate into negative territory at the ecb. that year, euro-dollar was pushing 140. 139 at the highs. when you say significant higher, what number are you thinking about? george: that is spot on. i use that period as an example of how big the impact was. if you go back to 2014-2015, 12 to 18 months we went all the way down to 105. there were other things happening back then come but if i look at the fundament of driver behind that weakness, it was a huge swing in european close from plus 400 billion euros to negative 400 billion

euros, so that nearly $1 trillion swing inflows pushed the euro down. our long-term forecasts premised on the european rate structure turning positive, quickly staying there, if you look at the european fiscal picture in contrast to the u.s., it looks much more favorable. if you take a that in put together, we have the euro moving back to above 120 and eventually above 130. lisa: if the ecb's hiking into weakness and the eu is facing a stagflationary force that leaves it in recession. george: i think that is a really question for the near term and that is exact we why we have seen that over the back of the russia-ukraine war.

extreme risks on the energy front would lead to that risk going up or down. we are seeing evidence that the tail risk is reducing. in terms of the big trip -- the big picture drivers, even with we were to see a recession, the medium-term outlook for europe still looks positive, especially with regard to fiscal policy. that is quite a big difference to the u.s., which i think is a more serious trouble from a medium-term perspective. jonathan: could you be more specific about the right path? he talked about how easy it is to get back to zero, but where you think it is going? george: we have the first hike

in september, and then december, and keep hiking until 1.5%. i would say the risks are to the upside, so critically, neutral rates in europe have seen repricing even more. jonathan: george, thank you. that is the call from deutsche bank, very somewhere to the call of 150 over at the ecb, and it could transform the european bond market, ultimately transform potentially the fx market, too. tom: it is intellectually really fascinating, but we have to remember come of the war is sort of over there. in day-to-day, there is massive uncertainty as we have seen the discussions of russian troops and the pressures on give. -- on kyiv. jonathan: i think lisa asked the most import question. if the outlook for breath going to be there -- for growth going

to be there to allow them to hike into? they are going to hike into weakness. lisa: and they had the exact opposite call because of what george was talking about. how can the european economy handle 1.5% overnight rates at a time when so much of the market is still trading at negative yields? how can they survive this in terms of economic growth, given the sense that they have been relying on these negative yields? jonathan: 150. the two-year in italy right now is 27 basis. tk, no world cup talk. [laughter] if you wonder why we have fallen out, this is it. he was texting me about it last night, telling me about which bar to go for the world cup later this year in new york.

tom: i was watching big jet. triple seven. jonathan: i don't know what you are having. lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the biden administration may use the nation's strategic oil reserve. the u.s. may release roughly one million barrels of oil per day for months to combat rising gasoline prices. the total release could be as much as 180 million barrels. president biden is set to speak today on energy costs. ukraine says talks with russia are to resume friday. negotiations will take place via videoconference. talks this we did not produce a broader peace deal. russia did agree to reduce military activity in northern ukraine. barclays is the latest bank to

raise compensation for its lowest paid u.s. workers. they will get 21% pay hikes from $17 an hour to $20.50. it applies to more than 900 employees come up or merely at bank. shares of h&m cell today to a two-year low. the swedish clothing chain reported a sudden slowdown in revenue due to the war in ukraine and earnings missed estimates. all of that complicates h&m's efforts to clear out a six year inventory buildup. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have reached the critical turning point in this fight. congress has to provide the funding america needs to

continue to fight covid-19. americans are back to living their lives again. we can't surrender that now. congress, please act. you have to act immediately. the consequences of not acting are severe. jonathan: the president of the united states this morning. unchanged on the s&p. yields coming in three basis points, down to 2.3133%. crude down a little more than 5%, fading from the lows of the session. as we wait to hear from the president today on the prospect of a reserve release, according to the team at bloomberg, we could be seeing some big moves may be a little bit later. tom: some of this ties in as well to the success of covid. christian beyrer joins us, johns

hopkins professor of public health. dr. beyrer's expert on international, which means we must talk china, but first we must talk about the funding of an america that is approaching under 700 deaths. it is a triumph for people like you. will this drift away at a certain point, or do we get the energy and the research effort forward that the president demands? dr. beyrer: we absolutely need that research funding. covid's not done yet, as you all know. it does have some immune escape. we really need to be looking at whether we need omicron specific boosting, should we have a pan coronavirus boost.

the trials and for structure that did this remarkable work on the vaccines through the nih expires in november, so the president is absolute right that congress has got to act. tom: this goes down to the boosters don't end in november, do they? jonathan: no, and we might be getting more and more. i think it is worth hiring a transparent, open conversation people can benefit from. i'm concerned about having an extra vaccine. i'm on number three. if someone turned around to me and said have number four, i would be a little bit worried about what it could do. can you tell me, if that becomes available, why you suggest that might be beneficial, not risky? dr. beyrer: the reason why the regulatory agencies went with a fourth dose, the second boost

for people over age 50 with underlying conditions is really because the israeli data shows that it is safe and secondly, that there was a significant increase in production against serious disease, hospitalization , and deaths. there's no question that for older people, the immunity does wayne, -- does wane, and we need more data. we are making this recommendation based on israel because they are ahead of us in the vaccine effort, but there still is some uncertainty. it does look like the safety issues particularly for people over 50 are not different between the third and the fourth dose. what about for the jonathan: jonathan: younger age groups? when do we start to learn about the kind of thing? i think people worry in the younger cohort about heart

inflammation, so-called myocarditis. dr. beyrer: first of all, remember covid itself can produce serious heart disease and myocarditis. the rates of myocarditis and people, specifically younger men and adolescent boys, is definitely higher, and most of it has been relatively mild and transient, but there's more myocarditis for the non-immunized. so on balance, it is still better to be immunized than not. i think one of the big challenges we have is that only about 1/3 of americans have had that third dose, so the primary boosting is not going well enough really to protect against the next potential wave, so i think while we are encouraging people over 50 to get the fourth

dose, we really need everyone else to get the third. lisa: especially of cases in new york city climbed yet again, let's say somebody has had three shots and they get omicron. are they protected from getting it again? how long does it take before that wanes? dr. beyrer: natural immunity wanes more quickly than vaccine-induced immunity. that is part of why some of the modelers are predicting that the u.s. may be protectable perhaps by june because so many people who have not been immunized but have had covid will have waning immunity, so that is a real concern. the scenario you are talking about where somebody gets a bout of covid after vaccination, many people are perceiving that to function more like a boost, so the vaccines protect you from serious disease overwhelmingly.

but that would give you more immunity. the challenge is that there are other people who are not eligible yet, people who are immuno compromised, so you still want to avoid covid, and long covid is turning out to be more of a problem, more common than we thought, and there's more long covid and african-americans emerging, so that also is a real concern. the neurologic up occasions, the brain fog, the memory issues we already want to avoid. jonathan: incredibly concerning. thank you for an open conversation nothing we have all benefited from. the kind of question i think a lot of people are asking at the moment. lisa: this comes as we do see a resurgence of cases in places

like new york. doesn't matter if you don't see the hospitalizations, don't see the deaths? when is that threshold, and what is the data going to show? jonathan: exactly what was said yesterday, that u.k. cases are picking up, but there is a disconnect between not and hospitalizations, and that is exactly what we wanted to see. tom: i would suggest as an amateur, and we have been really gifted with these guests we have had, we are struggling with the strange word endemic. everybody every day, particularly people with kids and old fragile people, the new endemic is a new struggle. jonathan: the policymaker moving away from it in a major way. outside of asia, of course. but in europe and in the united states, there's a real effort to move way from this now. tom: the airline industry is

having masks on planes. jonathan: where do you stand on that? tom: you guys are killing me today. i think there is a complete misunderstanding of aerosol in viruses, period. lisa: he wound down the clock. did you notice that? that was well done. jonathan: he knows i've only got five seconds left. this is bloomberg. g.

>> the slowdown was inevitable. the question is, does the fed hike so aggressively now that a recession hits? >> they were highly confident that we can avoid recession the next 12 months. >> the downside risk at the moment. >> i think that moves with -- i think that means we have room to move higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, and eventful day. yes, jobs data in 30 minutes.