♪ >> this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm dani burger in london. and these are the stories that set your agenda. massive oil release. president biden confirms he's tapping the strategic oil reserve to mitigate what he calls putin's price hike. russia will keep supplying oil to europe as they demand to be paid in ruble. putin may have put his advisers under house arrest.

we assess a tough quarter for for investors and the economy. we have mohammed helarain. happy friday. you made it to the end of the week and the start of a new quarter. off the back of a very, very difficult quarter the score is on the board for you. we saw stocks and high yield -- high yield bonds rather followed by 5%. treasury fell 5.6%. put those all together and that is the chart you're seeing right now, a decline of more -- of nearly 5%, the toughest quarter for this cross-asset view since the 1980's. but it is a new month. the same challenges are still sticking around. but let's get your view on what markets are doing so far on in the first day of april. not a huge rebound. up about .02 of 1%.

your 10-year yield is a 3.837%. we're looking at another day of declines in crew nymex crude up .04%. and finally yen heading to more losses yet again. that's at2 as we look at a stronger dollar today. let's get to our reporters around the world. we've got bruce einhorn. maria tadeo covering the election and the latest on ukraine and our juliette saly in singapore with all the market action out of asia to the u.s. where president biden says his plan to release a million barrel oils for six months lay a foundation for the country to achieve independence from foreign energy suppliers. >> today, i'm authorizing the

release of of one million barrel per day for the next six months over 180 million barrel first the strategic -- from the strategic petroleum reserve. s that war-time bridge to increase oil supply until production ramps up later this year. >> let's get more from bruce einhorn. biden confirming what we knew was on the way what sort of political calculus is biden dealing with right now? >> dain, of course, what biden is looking ahead to is the election in november as we're thinking about police cal calculus here. and high inflation and particularly high gasoline prices are not going to be good for democrats in november. biden is hoping that this will take some of the pressure off help to lower gasoline price. he did also refer to what's

going on right now as far as gas price as president putin's price hikes. so trying to put this in perspective, have american voters think about this in terms of what's happening in ukraine. he made a couple of other announcements including something about encouraging more production of electric vehicle batteries. so that's interesting because at the same time that he's focusing on gasoline prices, he's also making a nod to people in the democratic party in particular who want to see more emphasis on a transition to -- to more sustainable fuels going forward. >> at the same time in washington, bruce, we've got the steady drip feed of suggestions that there's a grow in gap between putin and his advisers by anything recently that some might be -- might have been under house arrest. what have we heard from the president? bruce: you're right.

president biden did refer to that in particular saying that there's some indication that vladimir putin has fired advisers or put under house arrest. president biden also referred to putin saying that he seems to be self isolated. this is in keeping with what we've heard over the last few days from officials in the u.s., officials elsewhere among the nato allies emphasizing what seemed -- what they say are divisions between putin and top advisers. we know that -- the top russian climate envoy resigned early in this war. we know that the head of the central bank tried to resign. we know the russian defense minister hasn't made a whole lot of public appearance over the last month. these are things that president biden, other western officials are trying to highlight to perhaps indicate that there's some divisions within the kremlin about what's going on. dani: that's bloomberg's bruce

einhorn. russia aims to keep supplying gas to customers even if it pushes it to pay in rubles. european gas futures had jumped earlier this week but pair back some of those gains. let's get to reporter maria tadeo. you're in hungay covering the election -- hungary covering the election. there's a lot of pushback over putin's demands for gas payments in rubles. what's the latest? maria: yes, dan irks and the standoff continues the back and forth continues, hand a whiplash yesterday. we heard early in the day from have a myrrh putin starting today friday april 1st, every company will have to have a russian bank account and pay their contracts in rubles. and the russians backtracked on that saying we're going to

fulfill the temperatures of our contracts. even during the war but in the runup from the occasion, they have always fulfilled their contract. when you look at the european response on this, well nothing has changed. we heard from the german chancellor saying the cracks are in euros and dollars and will continue to be like. this and nothing has changed. i made that very clear to vladimir putin that is a quote from the chancellor. when you look at the italian said they were confused by some of the new payment systems that the russians are pushing. they want to see more detail. and i had a conversation yesterday with a french official who told me the situation right now is so volatile that they are preparing for a potential cut from russia. this is a cut that the europeans don't trust. dain, yes, i was struck. i was watching the russian news and they were talking about vladimir putin doing the right thing for russia. they should pay us in russian

rubles they said. they said that he's going to take the country into collapse meaning germany. a lot of this is what russians are viewing and watching in their televisions at primetime news at 8:00 p.m. it's they were able to watch this because russian tv was supposed to be cut off from european air waves. but that is not a problem here in budapest. dani: it's not just russia that that e.u. has to contend with. china featuring neal the conversation in the war in ukraine and their relation with russia. what are we expecting the outcome of this to be? maria: well, dan irks, this call between the european union and china is always important. you're looking at the biggest trading block in the world and the second biggest economy in the world in context in the war in ukraine is ever more relevant and we know from our officials speaking to bloomberg yesterday that the

european commission and the head of the commission will send a clear message to china that they should not get involved in this war. they should not do it actively, passively, financially or military. and if it does the european union believes it will hurt its reputation. if china does get involved here what, does the e.u. have to do? there has been some ambiguity about this. one official told us china could find knit a position where it's also sanctioned. dani: maria will be back with an interview with hungarian politician. stupid for that. asian markets have started the new quarter as they ended the first in the red. and shanghai has begun part two of the biggs lockdown causing further concerns about china's growth picture. let's get to all the market action. jules? >> after a six and a half drop

in the asia pacific in the first quarter. you could see that there's some upside despite the lockdown in shanghai. the consumer stocks leading that drive there once again concern about the u.s. listing fears. let's take a look what the shanghai lockdown could mean for growth in china. we already had those concerns about what you say with p.m.i. we're hearing broker calls morgan stanley cutting their economic growth forecast from 4.6 to 57.1ers%. citi saying it was a hit in the second quarter. and economists suggesting that you probably won't see a rebound in this economy at the base case eagle in fourth quarter. of course, there's a concern this covid zero policy that could continue in 2023. well off those target of 5.5%, dain.

dani: a number of them have been halted. what's behind that? >> yeah, i'm looking at one-year chart of a few of these companies, 33, in fact, today have been halted because they haven't managed to meet their order requirements. there have been a little bit of changing to cope with from the fallout from the pandemic. but these companies including troubled property developers now suspended from trade until they get their finances in order. this of course, is weighing into more concern about the property sector and we're expecting some of the earnings from this sector to be the worse in around a decade. dani? dani: that's juliet saly in singapore. we look back on a historically rough quarter for bond investors. plus, lawrence, the chief economist gives her outlook on the issues impacting the global economy. all that next. this is bloomberg.

♪ dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. i'm dain bugger in london. the first quarter was historically rough one for bond investors. speck that active credit fell by 5% or more while investment trade fell by 6% some of the worst quarterly losses in decades. joining us is co head of public market. tatiana, good morning to you. these losses really spurred by a more aggressive sed. but we have a lot more praise into how aggressive the fed is going to be. does that mean that the worst of these markets are now over? >> yeah, i think -- well, the

worst -- a large part of it is behind us. and it's in the beginning really on that one. when you think about a fixed income as it says in the name has a fixed return potential. and for many years we've take than -- we've taken more and it was very low. and we were in a very low yielding environment. so we have hit this regime shift from a negative low yielding environment to a higher positive yielding environment. and so that is clearly near term and it's causing losses. so those are market losses. so are we there yet? the famous question. so when you look at the u.s.

shape of the yolker it would suggest that we are there because we are florida. i don't think we're inverting even. but i think we have to be careful. what we barely talk about is that even if the yield will flatten and invert there will be a parallel shift. and the same time flattened and started doing that. dani: well, this is -- this is -- >> huh? dani: this is such an important debate. it's really vigorous about how much of a cue we take from a flattening and inverted curves. when you look at these curves, does it change your strategy at all? tatiana: not yet. i'm a little bit skeptical about

the predictive power this time around. and why is that? it's been for the last five years the last time when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and clearly we had a recession. the recession wasteringed by the pandemic. the yoker didn't predict the pandemic. but what we -- what we have seen is that the market has become so aware that over the last few cycles, every time about 18 months before it happened a recession we saw the yield curve to invert. it has to invert by about two months in order to be a proper signal. so it cannot be over the, you know, half a day. so i'm a little bit worried that the market is getting ahead of itself in terms of the predictive power of the yield curve. so meaning we are sort of overanticipating it and

enforcing the yield to go negative. there's a little bit to be said about that if you focus too much on a deficit, you'll make it self fulfilling that the data set will match what you're thinking that there is. having said that, from the mentally you could argue that there could be a recession if we are fighting inflation and inflation is persistently high. and therefore, the central bank are very cognizant instead of very focused clearly there is a mandate to focus on inflation and then the secondary impact could be that you slow down the economy too much. really the way you want to slow down the economy to force inflation lower. but clearly how much do you want to slow it down? yes, there are fundamental reasons to think that we could face inflation fighting -- we could face a recession fighting inflation. but there are two parts of that

story. and it may be a little bit sort of overexaggerate because we know it is a signal in the past. dani: well, tatiana, i wonder when you get news coming from the white house of an s.p.r. release it sends w.t.i. below $100 a barrel. does this help ease your minds about the odds of recession especially in the u.s. if that inflationary factor is starting to come in? >> so yes, oil clearly is -- energy is a big part. it has diminished over time in terms of inflationary impact because we are less reliant on oil than we were in the 1970's for instance. but clearly that helped. having said that, we industrial to look at the broader based inflationary question. and yes, of course, quite a bit of it comes to energy. and in europe even more so with the higher gas price not just

the higher oil prices. but there are many other components that keeps it elevate which is not energy linked. and that would be the deglobal zation, the destruction of trust and, you know, you mentioned china and russia earlier. clearly, we -- we are entering a new regime. they're also not just inflation but in global zation where there's the belief that by linking other nations into this trading system that there would be sort of a coherence in society, a global society. and clearly we see that has not played out at all. we're facing a lack of trust document you want to, you know, as russia says well, do you want to be paid in a currency of your enemy? do you want to be paid in your own concern sit it goes to europe saying do you want to be energy reliant on a -- you know, on an enemy.

and so -- this talk, the wording has changed completely and so i think we want to become more self sufficient as nations, and we feel free and that would put a lot of pressure on inflation because clearly we need to reinvent our supply chain. and so again, and climate change is senior another factor where food security is being threated by the weather pattern. i think there's a lot of underlying issues other than energy, it could mean that inflation remains elevate. dani: tatiana, really interesting stuff. really great to have you. enjoy the rest of your friday and your weekend. that was tatiana, co-manager. energy bills will surge by 54%

from today. we'll get a look at details and what it means for inflation and the b.o.e. that's next. this is bloomberg. .

♪ dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak, europe, i'm dani burger in europe. juliet saly is standing by in singapore. hi, jules. juliet: talks with russia are set to resume. they failed to reach mariupol, the city devastated by shelling and forces. russia has agreed to hand back control of the chernobyl nuclear plant to ukraine. gamestop share surge after it announced plans for another plan

in the form of audi tend the retailer will fix shareholder approval to i crease the number of shares to 300 billion. it would provide flexibility for future corporate needs. global news 24 hours a day on air. and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 120 countries and 100 journalists. dani. dani: thank you so much. in the uk households are waking up this morning to a far higher cost to heat their homes. british energy regulator ovigerm gentleman has raised the cap on how high consumer prices can increase by 54%. joining us is economy reporter lizy burden to help us work through it. lizy, this price increase help us understand it. how big of a deal is it? what sort of impact does it have? >> simple things like boiling the kettle or having an early shower has gone up by 54%.

that is going to affect 22 million households according to the energy regulator. and because of the tax rise that has come in today, the resolution foundation found that it will cost the average household an extra $1, 100 pounds over the course of the year. this is exactly a time when people are being dod go back to the office so they're having to pay more to commute and more for their sandwich at lunchtime so the fiscal watchdogs the office of budget responsibility is warning that britains need to brace for the biggest drop in living standards in more than half a century. >> getting these c. pinch figures we have uk c.p.i. later in the month. how is this likely to impact inflation when inflation is already sky high? >> exactly. it was before the war in ukraine. the bank of england is warning that it could hit double digit

this is year it's because of this rise in energy cost. wholesale are more than six times than where they were last year. it's likely that you will see another rise in october unless cut by 30%. all of this inflation is swallowing up wage growth weighing on consumer confidence and adding to the sisk that the uk goes into a recession. dani: how complicated does this make it for the b.o.e. and treasury? >> it's compli cade because they're criticized for not doing enough for people. it's not they can do about short-term pain. if it goes too aggressively in the tightening it could add to the risk of recession. dani: it keeps get morety lizy, thank you so much. that's lizy burden our uk reporter. coming up, facing a one in a generation economic challenge, how should policymakers respond?

we're going to discuss that with the chief economist lauren boone. we're going to don't discuss the difficult quarter heading into a new one as we look at a slight rebound in stocks. this is bloomberg bloomberg

dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. massive oil release. president biden is tapping the strategic petroleum reserve. moscow says russia will continue supplying gas to europe as they continue demanding payment in rubles. plus we assess the damage from a tough quarter for investors in

the economy. we discussed with mohamed a el-erian. it is friday and it is the first day of a new quarter, a historically bad quarter across the board. let's see how they are shaping up for the first day of the second quarter. you are seeing some bond selling and yields pushing higher by four basis points so the 10 year yield and nymex crude at $99 a barrel. that is huge after the u.s. announced an spr release and there is a weakness for the yen. developed countries are under unprecedented pressure as the covid pandemic shows signs of easing but they are being squeezed by more supply chain issues, inflation, and all of that stalling growth prospects.

plus all of those are topics that are being discussed at the forum in italy and that is where francine lacqua is currently alongside our guest. francine: good morning. i couldn't be more excited to talk with our guest. talking about the military side but also on the economy and whether we could be a recession. thank you for joining us as always. thank you for taking the time to speak with us. it is an extremely difficult economy to see what and embroil -- and oil embargo would look like on inflation. laurence: it is nice to speak with you this morning. we are doing two things. the first one is oil and gas for europe and the cost of coal.

it is the price that reduces pollution. the other thing we can do is to look sector by sector how much the economy is using gas and we can stop that. in both cases, we are totally underestimating what the real sector would be because with gas, you could stop between one sector and this would have effects on the supply chain and other sectors. francine: how much do you have to review your forecast and what is the worst case scenario right now? are you more worried about inflation pressures now than you were a month ago? laurence: the longer the war will last, the more uncertainty we have. we are getting uncertainty for consumer purchases and investments. it is very worrying. plus the flight of a ban or

embargo depending on who wins the war also goes with -- we cannot estimate sector by sector. what we should be doing at this stage is to look at which sector we would need to switch off to preserve all aspects as possible of functioning economics. francine: is it a given that we will have to see some kind of rationing in europe and which sectors would you switch out first? laurence: it would depend on the evolution of the war, but if it lasts for longer than a year or depending on the behavior of russia, it will depend on what happened. at the same time, we have a food crisis, so instinctively you would think about consuming lots of energy like oil and diesel in

these type of things, but at a time where the world risks a food shortage, you don't want to shut down agriculture. francine: it will lead to difficult decision-making. what is the longer lasting impact on food insecurity? laurence: it leads to difficult decision-making and at the same time we have the experience of covid so we shut down the sector which is key. francine: the longer lasting impact on food prices, are you going to see countries or regions be much more --? laurence:

we have consequences on energy security, food security, digital security payments. you need to be careful with who you are training and -- trading and it will have humanitarian consequences as well. francine: are we underestimating the longer-term impact of this war? laurence: i believe we are underestimating the medium-term impact of the war. i hope and wish on the recommendation that governments realized they have to focus on all of these sectors. it takes time to weigh in on security and food security. that will take many years. this is something where we should be moving away from the short-term consumer oriented model to a medium-term security focused model. francine: the medium-term is that countries do not do enough to support the economy or fiscal

spending. what is the prescription today to prevent the worst outcome? laurence: on oil and energy, it is on food security and directly finding a way to find fuel from one country line. moving from one country to another one and that is to -- the best way to do that is to avoid the cost of fuel. we need to have targeted measures. you want also to do the same type of things for food and the most urgent one is the humanitarian help. we already have 4 million refugees and we need to give them care, medical, school, and plans. francine: how do you think the

government will deal with the refugee crisis? laurence: in terms of helping to integrate into the society like in germany, and you are also seeing that in turkey as well but it depends on which housing is going. it is about 12,000 euros per refugee, so that is something like 11.5 of the eu gdp. the european union is a little bit more than the percent of the gdp. francine: talk to me about princi volatility and whether there is a danger that -- pricing volatility and whether there is a danger that the banks cannot do anything about that. laurence: there is obviously the u.s. spending elements in terms

of tightening but each region in the world has its own pace with its own issue. what is happening with the world is consequences with the war. it is difficult for policy to address it and there is always some caution in some regions given that we don't know the size or how worse it can become. francine: thank you so much for joining us. that is laurence boone, chief economist at oecd. interesting to think what our guests think about monetary policy, coming up. dani: a fascinating conversation, underestimating the medium-term impact of war. thank you for bringing that. that is francine lacqua. the conversations continue. we speak with the allianz chief advisor and mohamed a el-erian.

that interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get back to the ambrosetti forum. francine lacqua is still there with our guest. francine: i am glad to be speaking with the one and only mohamed el-erian, economist at allianz and bloomberg columnist. first on the yield curve aversion, what is that telling us? everything has changed. mohamed: it is telling us to pay

attention, that the market is increasingly concerned that the fed will make a policy mistake and the markets are saying to just pay attention. francine: do you worry that a 50 basis point hike from the fed is the wrong message? mohamed: i worry that the fed now has to choose between one of two mistakes and has to define which one to take. go to fast or go too slow. i would go to to -- too slow. i understand that the fed may want to go too fast. francine: if they go too fast that they would have to reverse it? mohamed: i worry it would take us to recession, that they miscalculated inflation for too long, they do not do enough, and

they feel that to regain the credibility, they have to show and they hikec twice by 50 basis points. --dani: good morning and thank you for joining the program. you call for the double-digit inflation figures. does the spr released from the biden administration relieve any of those fears for you? mohamed: it helps but it doesn't remove themc. the distribution of outcomes has shifted. stagflation used to be a risk and it is now a baseline. goldilocks used to be the right and has now moved to be completely on distribution. recession has come in. i don't think the release of the oil will significantly change the distribution. dani: and all of this leads to a

market that is difficult to invest in. last quarter we saw stocks and bonds fall 5% or more. you said this environment will push investors to private markets but private markets are already $3 trillion or more in dry powder. what does it mean to have a world more awash in private money? mohamed: you also need the private market to expand their offerings. there is opportunity in developing countries that remain underexploited. there are other places where people haven't gone yet, so the private markets are going to have to step up and offer a much broader range of opportunities. francine: [indiscernible] when we were talking about the possible rationing, we don't know how to model a consumer price shock than the world.

it is more like the tabs are turned off because it is not feeding it rubles. what happens to the world? mohamed: europe goes into a recession. i think the rest of the world has a massive stagflationary wind and what we don't talk enough about, francine, is the input commodity prices on the developing countries. i am really worried about them. francine: are we leaning on possible default? mohamed: i don't get the phrase who christine lagarde said that war in ukraine could equal famine in africa. francine: is there anything that governments can do? you talk about how the markets have not caught onto this idea of rationing of energy prices, or is that what we will have if this were doesn't stop soon? mohamed: yes, if the war doesn't

stop soon, you are going to have high commodity prices, significant supply disruptions. what you and i will do in a world like that, we will stockpile. what you get is a lower supply and higher demand. francine: what do you get from the markets? the markets are still saying that we are fine and we will get through it. does that lead to more correction? mohamed: if you are an equity investor taking on a lot of risk, where do you go to? cash guaranteed returns, bonds, capital depreciation, where do you go? in a relative space, what you are talking about would shift us into an absolute space and that is a different proposition. francine: when we see that at some point because of the absolute space? none of this is modeled and this

is not priced in anywhere. mohamed: i have an article coming out that says exactly this, that this is the time to take some shares off the table. the market has been incredibly resilient and investors are picking up on that. francine: thank you so much as always for joining us. bloomberg columnist mohamed el-erian with wonderful critical thinking when it comes to the possible rationing on what it means for markets. dani: fastening in this environment, taking chips off of the table again. fantastic conversations and francine will be there in aoyuan --ambrosetti throughout the rest of the day with fascinating interviews. will russia be able to make a payment due on monday? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have a very tight labor market at the moment. the thing that is extraordinary about it is that it is already very tight. the ongoing demand for labor particularly in the services sector is very significant. we are starting to see those pass-throughs in the higher wages and more inflationary pressure. we continue to hope there is a chunk of people on the sidelines that are waiting for the pandemic to be in a better place , who have family obligations that may change as the pandemic improves, or people who have

retired and decided they wanted to come back. this labor market may mean high where ages -- higher wages and more inflationary pressure and that does pose a challenge to the soft landing scenarios. >> let's go back to the projections of the fed because they projected we are going to have more inflation and higher rates but the unemployment rate would not go up at all. do you think that is realistic? >> when jay powell was asked that question, it was a very challenging answer. i think it is difficult to get economics slowing with an immaculately flat unemployment rate. maybe that is possible, maybe we will be able to find some pockets of labor that are not tapped yet, but i think it is going to be challenging. the possibility that we might see a higher unemployment weight

-- rate, which often builds on itself and generates meaningful recessionary pressures is a distinct possibility. >> you mentioned the possibility of recession. where you put that possibility at? >> globally, it is around one third. the geopolitical situation, the energy situation is very severe. in the united states we are insulated, but alan greenspan once said that the united states cannot long remain an island of prosperity and stability in a world that is struggling. when i think about the situation coupled with the federal reserve potentially hiking rapidly, maybe one in four over the next 16 months, it is significant. dani: nathan sheets speaking there. let's turn to russia and the

country's that payment. -- debt payment. it has bought back bonds with rubles. it is getting ready to repay on monday, a date that investors are watching closely. let's get more with bloomberg's rebecca. why is russia offering to buy back its dollar bonds in this specific way? >> ultimately this technique is all about protecting and helping local investors and making sure that local investors do not lose out here and do not get caught up in any delays in payment that could be tied to the sanctions or capital control. there is still a chunk of cash that has not been returned, about 550 million that is still owed, so investors are watching closely what happens on monday to see. the other things we consider is as sanctions continue and as

these pressures on the russian currency continue, it becomes increasingly concerned about lessening the dollar flow out of the country. while russia has staved off the sector default in some of its sovereign debt so far, that pressure continues to mount the longer it goes through this period of financial stress. dani: as we are monitoring russia and deadlines approaching, what are we watching next? rebecca: on the background of these hefty sovereign dollar bonds and foreign currency bonds that are due, we are interested in the various missed payments from russia's other corporate debt. there have been technical defaults and other -- in other corporate russian bonds. mainly an outflow from the country is getting caught up in all of these compliance checks

and it is difficult to get money to leave russia. investors that still have exposure to some of those corporate russian names are eyeing those payments to see if we get any kind of crescendo more broadly. dani: thank you so much. that is rebecca chung wilkins giving us the latest on the russian debt payment. i want to bring you raking lines of hungary's bonds warning of deep economic crisis in europe. we have heard about concerns of this from my guest earlier saying that we are underestimating the long-term -- short-term consequences. maria tadeo is on the ground in hungary and bringing us interviews throughout the rest of the programming as well. she will have an interview with the opposition leader so stay tuned for that.

russia featuring heavily in politics in europe and the u.s. with president biden releasing more spr reserves. that is as oil prices lower for a second day as we head into the first day of the second quarter. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." mark cudmore, our markets live managing editor joins us from singapore to take us through market action this hour. nowhere to hide.