uncertainty surrounding economic inflation and labor market outcomes. >> as you price and more fed hikes that will challenge the growth narrative. >> what the yield curve is discounting is higher odds of growth slow down next year. >> we expect a shift in consumer spending. >> there is demand destruction occurring in substitution that happens. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls friday. good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p kicking off q2. tom: will do that on this jobs day with dominic konstam, one of the giant intellects of wall street. there is so much to talk about in the markets, how it links into this job economy and how it links into the one common shock of q1.

i will pick a number you picked the other day, 7% inflation. jonathan: look at europe, 37% for the first time ever. how big is this problem -- through 7% for the first time ever. how big is this problem? the bond market already making a move, the two year yield 90 basis points higher. up 160 basis points through the last quarter. tom: this is the second wave we are seeing. dominique makes clear that could be a third wave. that is the mystery of q2. everybody is looking for rate stabilization. maybe there is a set up like steve major's where rates rationalized. dominique constance goes the other way -- dominic konstam goes the other way. jonathan: coming up we get jobless claims. the estimate 419,000. lisa: how many people are going

back into labor markets to capture higher wages. how much does the unemployment rate go up -- how much do we see the robust labor market continuing to fuel a recovery and frankly pushing the fed to go faster? jonathan: crude back at $100. lisa: why are they releasing 180 million barrels? what is the longer-term plan? how much will they find oil makers and oil drillers for not using permits on federal lands they're not being tapped? what is the cohesive policy? jonathan: three member what happened when tom asked what is the granholm plan, she laughed in his face and said look to opec. now we are finding out what the plan is. lisa: this is a very convoluted message. how did they get some sort of cohesion? tom: this is right where i want to go. what is the plan? jonathan: bully the oil majors

in this country, apparently. before it was blame opec and now it is blame them. it will be a fascinating conversation later. have they have any evidence of price gouging whatsoever? let's get them to name names. let's talk about the companies when they go in front of congress next week. otherwise are using it because it exists for because it might play well with the electorate? tom: that is the domestic strategy. before this jobs day, let's make it clear, germany-russia is tangible and way more than what is going on in america. jonathan: on the nasdaq 100, elevated, kicking off q2 and april up .6%. yields up six basis points. crude unchanged, $100. lisa: 8:30, u.s. payrolls report

for the month of march. the estimates range from zero well north of 550,000. the estimate is 490,000. the estimate for the employment rate is for it to fall the 3.7%, new post-pandemic low. i want to understand how much wages are driving more people into the market. the expectation is for a 5.5% hourly wage and these year-over-year. palm, on a guilt -- tom, on a real basis they are still lagging behind inflation. the manufacturing front is interesting at a time we have covid rolling off but then the influence from europe. at 9:30 we get u.s. auto sales. how much do we start to see ongoing weakness? people have already bought cars. prices have come down from the accelerating pace in terms of how quickly they've been driving the used-car front. the expectation is for the worst quarterly decline in auto sales

going back a decade, just to give you a sense of what we are looking at. at 10:00 ism manufacturing at a time when we have dueling factors. covid is ending. on the other hand you're getting pressure globally because of what is going on in ukraine and what is going on in china. covid is not over there. we saw the biggest decline in private manufacturing in china back to the heart of the pandemic. jonathan: let's talk about what is happening with china for the stocks listed in the united states. alibaba in the premarket is shooting higher off the back of a bloomberg story which reads "chinese authorities are preparing to give u.s. regulators full access to auditing reports on the majority of the 100 plus companies listed in new york as soon as mid this year." that could be a big concession that keeps these guys in america. tom: is a huge deal and the thing here is the timeframe. mid next year in the accounting

business is tomorrow. alibaba, there is always been that yeah, but about accounting. here we are with the seachange. jonathan: the bloomberg report says the stock is up 6.5%. tom: we will start jobs day and it is our joy to have our first interview with dominic konstam. literally legendary at credit suisse, then deutsche bank and citigroup as well. i think dominic konstam retired for five years, he went out flyfishing. jonathan: is that what he did? tom: back in the game. jonathan: is great to see you in a new seat. let's talk about why you think yields have not peaked. why? dominic: the way we have been approaching the outlook is huge

uncertain but you have different regimes, you have the idea you could see strong growth from inflation regime. i think strong growth and strong inflation will another six months. i would give a lot of credence to the fed outlook that inflation will come down but growth will be resilient. the 10 year yields need to go a bit higher. that is essentially the view. lisa: what gives you confidence growth is resilient at a time when at the margins you are seeing consumers pullback and competence has been plummeting? dominic: obviously there is a lot of uncertainty from the consumer side of things that will affect confidence. the key thing people have

focused on four preemptive slow down have been things like oil prices. the household balance sheets are obviously very strong. the other key thing is labor market. it is off the charts. it is been a long time since you've seen a labor market this impressive. it is not just the top numbers or the unemployment rates. wages have been up strongly as unemployment has fallen. real wages are not that good. inflation is a problem on the energy side. when inflation comes down real wages should be up a lot. it is a great place for moderate wages to moderate in their growth.

you look at how hard it is to hire people, to offer more vacancies. all of those are signs of very robust labor market. the key points is why are they tightening? are they going to force the housing market down? what they are tightening for is to make the process a bit more organized so as people return to work they do not return to work at higher wages. they will moderate wage inflation and see a slight increase in unemployment, but you could have the best of all possible worlds, soft landing where wage inflation come down the housing market is not fall to pieces. at this stage it is too soon to say they are wrong. on that basis, and the u.s. they

have not got back to where they were, 2016 to 2018 averages. the global market has done it but not the u.s.. the u.s. market has room to move higher. jonathan: fascinating stuff and great to see you in that seat. dominic konstam of mizuho. head of microstrategy. morgan stanley put out a nice piece. ellen zentner putting out a long research piece. "price increases to offset higher wages may soon lose steam as demand destruction is emerging in consumer end markets. it may pose a risk to corporate profit margins." is that the story for 2022? tom: is out in front. ellen zentner with francine lacqua out on lake cuomo. she is flyfishing after the interview.

this is the point for the second quarter, to easy demand destruction click in? dominique said he is -- we are returning to normal labor economics with the reemergence of the phillips curve. i've not said that in four years or six years. jonathan: are you heated about not being at lake cuomo? tom: it is not as romantic as you think. there is/and the line goes horizontal -- there is slush and the wind goes horizontal out of the alps. jonathan: i would say it is best to go in the summer. futures up .5% on the s&p. the nasdaq up. yields higher by seven basis points. they do a great breakfast. 490,000 is your estimate for payrolls. that is coming up later. this is bloomberg.

lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. bloomberg has learned the u.k. has agreed to join the u.s. and releasing oil from its strategic reserve. no word on how big that release will be. president biden has announced the u.s. will release one million barrels of oil a day for six months. the goal is to lower gasoline prices and reduce dependence on foreign oil. negotiations between ukraine and russia are set to resume today by video link. ukrainian forces made a rare strike across the world. border. two helicopters had a russian oil tanker facility. economists expect another strong u.s. jobs report today. the median estimate is employers added 490,000 jobs in march. the employment rate is expected to fall to 3.7%. the jobs report is out 8:30 new york time.

shanghai has started part two of its lockdown, confining some 60 million people living in the western part of their city to their homes. a four day lockdown at eastern shanghai just ended. during the lockdown residents are barred from leaving their homes unless they are going out their mandatory covid test. the upstart amazon labor union is on track to possibly win a historic election to unionize a warehouse in staten island, new york. when vote counting was halted votes in favor of the union outnumbered those opposed. the final tally comes as early as today. amazon was ahead in a similar election in alabama. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: today i am authorizing the release of one million barrels a day for the next months from the strategic petroleum reserve. this is a wartime bridge to increase oil surprised until production ramps up later this year. jonathan: the president of the united states on latest effort to do something about gas prices. that was worth a move of 6% to 7% on crude yesterday.

this is how we are shaping up this morning on wti, $100.41. yields higher six basis points. look out, euro-dollar. 1.1053. this on twitter -- "only three things are certain, death, taxes, and the ecb not having a clue." tom: could you see jeff currie tearing to shreds the spr theory? he says it has not worked before, why would it work now? jonathan: it is bigger now. tom: fine. great micro economist from chicago said it is silly. jonathan: that is their argument, not mine. tom: let's get to it will stop maria tadeo in budapest for an important election but first

emily wilkins in washington. what does day two of this spr release look like? emily: the white house trying to give an answer to the question they are feeling on gas prices. this is a dual pronged move coming with regards to vladimir putin and ukraine and trying to help european allies, but it also comes as the biden administration is getting heat from the american people for these high gas prices. the administration tried to brand this as putin's rising gas prices. they tried to blame big oil prices. there is a pullout this morning -- there is a poll out this morning saying 41% of americans are blaming biden directly and only 24% are blaming vladimir putin or the big oil companies. this is something the white house is trying to get under control before the midterms later this year.

democrats already face a very difficult election, as the party in power always does. it is only going to get worse as the american people continue their low approval of the biden administration. jonathan: what happened to blaming opec? there was a wall street journal report that the white house said was inaccurate that the ministration had reached out for a call with the crown prince and that was rejected. emily, where are we with those talks? where are we without outreach? for many opec are laughing in our faces. they had another meeting. it did not last long. where are we in the relationship between d.c. and react? emily: those reports sent shockwaves through washington. they say we should not be asking these countries we are not allied with to be the ones to ramp up oil and gas prices and a

lot of republicans are hitting biden. they say it is the u.s. that needs to have energy independence to step up production. you saw the biden administration touch on that yesterday, saying they were calling on congress to fine companies that have these drilling permits and are not using them or have areas of public land they are not using to produce oil and gas. we know lawmakers are working on a package of bills trying to find ways they can nudge the price of gas a little bit lower. lisa: meanwhile in europe, we got this out of the kremlin. ruble payments for gas will be due in late april or early may. what is going on. we already had this tit-for-tat where the your region said we are not going to do that. let americans into rollover. this -- vladimir putin seemed like a different town --

vladimir putin started to roll over. this seems like a different town. maria: -- they say clients will have to have two bank accounts. one in europe and another one in rubles and they would be responsible for the swap. this goes back to what mario draghi said. he had a phone call with vladimir putin. the italian press was asking for details and he breathed they were paying euros and russia would be responsible for conversion. nothing changed. when you speak to critics, they tell you whether you pay in euros or rubles it does not matter because russia is making money and this is the way they finance the war. a lot of this is a clinical fight but in real terms not changing anything because russia is still getting paid in the european still buy the gas. jonathan: there was outrage from president zelenskyy addressing the parliaments around europe. there was one moment that jumped

out. he went through countries through europe one by one and talked about ukraine's relationship with them. then he got to hungry and he had a message for hungry's leader -- and yet a message for hu ngary's leader. where is that relationship? maria: this was a pity of conference in which president zelenskyy jumped in with all of the european leaders and everyone's job dropped. this is a moment -- and everyone's jaw dropped. so lindsay said you are with us -- president zelenskyy said you are with us or you are not. this is a relationship that is broken. victor orban says he is the only one who can keep hungary neutral, the only one who can keep the war going into hungary. he is saying he can keep

hungary. you can also say this propaganda. hungary is a member of nato. this goes back to his very personal friendship with vladimir putin. the relationship is completely broken, not just with ukraine but also with hungarian neighbors. poland is very different country. this is a war that has graded a lot of friction in eastern europe. jonathan: maria tadeo alongside emily wilkins in d.c.. tom keene, have you been able to follow this fat over how a paper route -- this spat over how to pay for russian gas? tom: buried in the depths is a look dark chapter when your eyes glaze over. you have to have a beverage in your hand stop the answer is i was listening to this, it comes down to a foreign-exchange swap which is very complex it is the time and the key thing, is the

ruble truly priced at 82? to me that is the singular traumatic question. jonathan: futures up .5%. it is payrolls friday. your estimate is 490,000. two hours away. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: futures positive this morning on the s&p. nasdaq 100.6%. --up .6 percent. lisa: it's amazing. i think the distinction is every thing else is even more, a sense of how painful this quarter has been. jonathan: a decent month of gains in march. on the month was this massive move in the bond market. looking at the front end. moving 90 basis points. a single month. of another four basis points on the session. the curve a little steeper. the difference between the two,

about two basis points. tom: even i can do that math. it is a huge deal. i can't imagine -- i can't frame in my head june 30. jonathan: 100 basis points higher by that time. look, that is the base case now. bmp another one. the next meeting, the one after that, that is the base case now. what about the ecb? i'm sure they were surprised this morning by inflation. the previous month had a five handle. 7.5% on cpi. euro-dollar, just a little softer. what does the ecb do? it probably will not and kiwi until q3. -- qe until q3. tom: right now the legend from

the federal reserve. williams college, mathematics is front and center. they have an acclaimed math camp. if you're better than good at math, you go east, young man and to go to school in boston where you can move forward. that is what david wilcock did -- david wilcox did before serving three fed chairman at the federal reserve. director of economic research for bloomberg economics. thank you so much for joining us today. let me cut to the chase on the jobs report. it is the first and second derivative of wage growth. what is their character right now? david: all the indications are the labor market is behaving like it is very hot. wage gains are galloping along at a clip we have not seen in several decades. we are expecting a sizable employment report, employment gain this morning.

probably another down to can the unemployment rate. employer's are really eager to hire. what that means is they are offering prospects a nice gain tom: they talk about the return of the phillips curve with beverage curve affects. i have not said this since two chairman ago. is the phillips curve return the relationship or tie-in with wage growth with inflation, with jobs and indeed with economic growth? david: i'm perhaps in the minority who thought the phillips curve never exited stage left. it is one of the sturdier relationships we macroeconomists have to rely on. what we see is on the economy runs hotter, we usually see a little faster wage growth. a little faster price growth. it is a noisy relationship.

sometimes it is hard to pick up from the background activity, but i think we are seeing strong evidence of that operating now. lisa: are we seeing the limits of it? people are seeing outpacing wage increases. you're seen consumer hesitance on the corners. david: is causing hardships for tens of millions of families. their purchasing power is being eroded by what they have to pay at the gas pump and at the grocery store. there is no guarantee that earnings are going to outpace price increases. for that to happen we need to see really solid productivity gains. lisa: you are at the fed. you know how they think. are they struggling with the idea profit margins? if they continue to climb, is that a bad thing for the federal reserve?

is that now what they want to see to pass along price increases to consumers, which help support their earnings? david: the main factor the fed will be focusing on is whether inflation seems to be becoming embedded in the general psychology. what is a red flag for any central bank, including the fed, is when businesses begin to say, i know i can pass on my cost increases to my customers because my competitors are doing the same thing. it is a red flag for the central bank when workers say, i know i can g in and demand higher wage increases on an ongoing basis because if my employer does not give it to me, i can go down the street and get the same job at a higher pay. that is when they know they are in deep trouble. tom: i want to move to the question for april and q2. whether christine lagarde, with

all the challenges and the original theory and practice of the european central bank experiment. they have a massive conundrum now. how does she move forward given 7% inflation which is unspeakable to begin with and germany? -- in germany? david: it's tough all around the globe. she faces a situation not that much unlike chair powell. up until now the u.s. stood out by having higher inflation and then other countries around the globe. what central banks need to do is attempt to judge what the staying power is of inflation. if as ill remains in the base case, inflation proceeds as the economy continues to normalize, central banks are going to need to do less in terms of crushing

the economy in order to bring it down. most of all what is required to run a successful monetary policy is for central banks to continually adjust to unforeseen developments and circumstances. they are just like a rocket engineer always firing the thruster rockets to get back on course. tom: is the thruster rocket to get back on course the utilization of foreign exchange? are the dynamics of the euro or the dollar the same now as they were for rudy dornbusch a few decades ago?? david: yes. an important channel of monetary policy is through that foreign exchange rate. when they tighten financial conditions, one thing that happens is the currency appreciate. that makes our product more expensive for foreign countries.

that tamps down demand. that is all part of tightening financial conditions. jonathan: david wilcox going into payroll, thank you. great to catch up with you on this payroll friday. 490,000. as lisa mentioned, you got zero all the way out to close to 600,000. tom: ian is not thinking clearly. new castle is too much tension for ian. what is important here, normal, back before the set of crises, 200,000. i remember when people with model 150,000 as "normal." we are still popping 400,000, 500,000. jonathan: is there anything normal about this moment? you mentioned europe.

7.5% inflation. it is still running qe after q3. can you join the dots for me? tom: let me go down my hallway where my books are. david wilcox studied under three fed chairman. in there somewhere is my son's textbook. none of this is in able bernanke. jonathan: the energy story making up the bulk of the move in the euro zone inflation. policy and the fundamentals on the ground are totally out of whack right now. in europe and the united states. lisa: even if you break out energy to volatile components, you are seeing the fastest pace on record in the area of 3%. taking a step back, this is how i make sense of the policy. for decades the only game in

town was the central banker to stimulate the economic growth. now we are dealing with an economic growth shock to the euro zone while we are seeing inflation we have not seen for years. how do we get to a new mentality where the central banks don't have power anymore over the main threat to the economic outlook? jonathan: i think phase i is get the interest rate back to zero. away from negative interest rates. if you get back there, the thing we are hearing at the moment is we have a massive split in the guests. one earlier this week said down to 105. that will not help inflation. another guest talking about breaking out to a positive regime and taking euro-dollar towards 130. if you don't know what policy is going to do, that's a tricky position. lisa: because regime change is not isolated to what central bankers can do to support growth.

is the fx channel more reliant on rates or the growth outlook? pleas holt -- this whole idea of pushing on inflation. jonathan: about eight years ago, mario draghi, ecb president said rates need to be low now to be higher in the future. we are eight years later and we are still looking at negative rates in europe. tom: one of our guests this week with that accent, qe1, qe2, qe3, qe4. jonathan: is that the real accent? i'm not sure he would have approved. i'm not sure what that was. futures up .5% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> president biden says russian leader vladimir putin may have fired some of his advisors or put them under house arrest. he said it's an open question whether putin is informed on how his military is doing in ukraine. the coleman says those remarks were a perfect example of this information. european union leaders have a warning for xi jinping. china will hurt its global stature if it helps russia during the war in ukraine. that message will be delivered in a virtual summit today. the warning will test beijing's commitment to keep the war from damaging its ties with the eu. the u.s. has denied claims from pakistan's prime minister that it wants him ousted. the government has lost its majority in parliament and he's faces a no-confidence vote on sunday. kahn has had a tense relationship with the u.s.. he hails the taliban victory and

has not spoken with president biden. the house has moved forward a key piece of president biden's drug pricing agenda. they voted to limit what insured americans pay for insulin to $35 a month. now it is up to the senate for a bipartisan group to come up with its own insulin proposal. big firms are wrapping up their fee war across the $7 trillion u.s. marketplace. the latest shot was fired by blackrock. it cut costs across the handful of etfs, including the biggest bond fund in the industry. state street and vanguard cut fees last year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i worry the fed has to choose between one of two mistakes. i worry it will take us into

recession. that they are late. they are mischaracterizing for too long. they did not do enough and now to regain credibility they have to hike twice by 50 basis points. jonathan: fantastic to hear from mohammed this morning. futures positive .5% on the s&p. nasdaq also. that is the view right now. 50 basis point move at the next meeting and another after that. tom: i have never seen the hudson river look that beautiful. for those of you on radio, it has never looked that good. jonathan: i've never seen the river with riverboats. tom: he is anchor for the network. it is quite cold. on this spectacular success and good news of people like barela

just andrew pekosz, he joins us from johns hopkins. we've had many difficult conversations and we do this now within america with under a seven day moving average. that is a triumph of science. why can't they do that in china? >> it's a very different situation in china for a couple of reasons. one of the things is they are using vaccines that are maybe not as durable and don't induce broad enough protection like we are using here in europe and other parts of the country. the second thing is, china's strategies have worked really well against every variant prior to omicron. but omicron changes the game. it makes a different playing field here. the strategies that worked against other variants are not working as well so they are struggling to keep up with this more transmissible variant. lisa: what are you hearing on

the ground? what are the tea leaves from where china is going with zero covid? dr. pekosz: they seem to be committed to the zero covid policy. this will really open up some opportunities for china to rethink their vaccination strategy and the vaccine they use. it starts and ends with vaccines these days. the impetus to have a zero covid policy with omicron requires a higher level of public health intervention. so, it's a question if the country can commit to even more restrictions to control covid the way they have tried to control omicron and other variants. lisa: what happens if they allow people to go about their business and got rid of zero covid policies? dr. pekosz: you would see a massive increase in cases. the immunity in that population is not as good because the vaccines they have been using are not as good as some other

ones. i think you would still be really weary about surges in terms of cases at hospitals, mortality rates among the elderly, all those things we hear about here would be coming to bear in china, except where we were worried about this over the past six months or previously now you have china getting worried now. tom: for listeners and viewers, i believe it was delta with deaths under 900. we celebrated. we were wrong. along came omicron. how do people like you determine the next omicron? dr. pekosz: let's start by saying the general popular -- population has a little bit of a reprieve right now. i am cautiously optimistic about the levels of cases and how long we will be able to hold those. public health officials, scientists were constantly searching for variants that give

us signatures that potentially could be different from the circulating variant, omicron in this case. we are looking for clusters of cases that are occurring that are localized to one geographic area. one town, one city. that might give us a sign a new variant has emerged. right now nothing looks concerning but public health laboratories are monitoring things and keeping an eye on things. jonathan: i want to hear that on repeat. nothing concerning on the horizon. doctor, thank you. andrew pekosz. one stock i want to look at is alibaba. bloomberg coming out with a story a few hours ago. chinese authorities are preparing to give u.s. regulators for access to auditing reports on the majority of 200 plus companies listed in new york as soon as the middle of this year. that story out early this morning. that stock up 7%. lisa: it follows news that gary

gensler was taking a hard line. how much was this the peak of a negotiation leading to some concessions on the part of chinese authorities? how much does this play into the story with respect to covid zero, with respect to the slowdown in the economy, with their need for financing, turmoil both internally and externally? jonathan: i think it is interesting. some state owned enterprises and private companies will be delisted. we want to find out who those companies are. tom: it is a back-and-forth. i am frankly of the thought it is clouded by the war in ukraine, by the relationship of china and russia. i don't want to overplay that. this article is a real surprise. it would be a massive change. jonathan: i think it is really important. in many ways in this relationship the u.s. side has

underestimated the value of being able to tap u.s. capital markets. of course those companies are listed here needed to do this. they should have been doing this years ago. it's only recently you see them ramp up again and ask them to do this. i'm surprised it did not happen in a bigger way before. we tried for a long time to make this happen but it's happening now. tom: i will keep my opinion out of it. on an accounting basis it has been awed from day one. -- odd from day one. jonathan: it does not make sense that a foreign company doesn't have to abide by the same rules as the domestic one. lisa: and the fact it has taken so long to get concession on this with respect to disclosure will be interesting. how much is the backdrop of what is going on with the pressures on the commodity sector, the pressures on the chinese economy a result of covid? how much is that coloring the negotiations?

i do think about that, because it seems like there has been some shift. there has been a bigger concession on the chinese side we have not seen in years. jonathan: if this happens -- it's been decades of the u.s. making concessions believing the chinese would become like the west. that has not happened. that is why in many ways europe and germany carried on engaging with russia. the idea that russia and the russian government would like to become like the west. that has not happened. it failed in a massive way. tom: yes and no. you are right but i would not provide equal balance. i would say germany really has learned what they did for decades did not work out. the change of the first quarter in germany is historic. jonathan: someone said recently the longer you wait to deal with a dictator, the higher the price is.

they waited a long, long time. futures up .4% on the s&p. good morning. payroll at 830 eastern time -- 8:30 eastern time. ♪

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>> there is a wide range of uncertainty in the market outcome. >> that is going to challenge the growth narrative. >> it is discounting higher odds of a growth slowdown next year. >> what we expect is a shift in consumer spending. >> it is destruction that is occurring and there is substitution that needs to happen. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am jonathan ferro. futures up .5% on the s&p. kicking off q2 with payrolls just around the corner. the range anywhere from zero up to 700,000. that is the range of estimates for payrolls this morn