>> there is a wide range of uncertainty in the market outcome. >> that is going to challenge the growth narrative. >> it is discounting higher odds of a growth slowdown next year. >> what we expect is a shift in consumer spending. >> it is destruction that is occurring and there is substitution that needs to happen. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am jonathan ferro. futures up .5% on the s&p. kicking off q2 with payrolls just around the corner. the range anywhere from zero up to 700,000. that is the range of estimates for payrolls this morning.

tom: it will be a lot about wage growth and wage dynamics. the jobs report around the may 4 fed meeting is the mystery of demand destruction given the way prices are moving up in america. jonathan: inflation is skyhigh. on april 12, the next cpi, then onto may 4. the 50-basis point move from this fed. tom: this is massively not linear. i'll it dr. l arian and others talk about this. this 50 point move is not like the third or fourth or whatever andrew hollander's is talking about. jonathan: it's a consensus call for 50 back to back. that is the call on the street. i don't know a single bank that does not believe that. lisa: how much that does affect

the narrative. frankly whether risk markets have priced this in. we were talking before this year about how an increase of the stature at this pace would disrupt capital markets dramatically. we have seen a selloff but early have not in a more mature way. at what point do we hit a breaking point? jonathan: in terms of price performance what came to market, the new issues? lisa: there was softening on the edges for certain issuers not want to pay higher rates. others wanted to capitalize on rates heading even higher. honestly, resilience is the underlying word. junk bonds are one of the best-performing assets. giving you a sense of how risky assets are considered havens at a time when it is based on the rate story and a strong economy. jonathan: the energy move no doubt as well. futures up .5% on the s&p. nasdaq, .5% also. yields up seven basis points on

the 10-year to 240. crude at $100. euro-dollar unchanged. conflation anything but unchanged. unreal. lisa: have they priced into the move in the united states but globally to higher yields? what does that do to the investment after decades of central banks. 8:30 a.m. for the payrolls report. we have been talking about the range of estimates. how much does this bring the u.s. on appointment rate down? does the patient rate increase and how much do wages continue to climb? deification is for a 5.5% year-over-year increase in average hourly wages. how much further cannot go? at what point does that bring more people into the labor market? we get u.s. auto sales at 9:30 a.m. scattered throughout the day.

there is expected to be -- it is expected to be low, the lowest going back decades. how much does this get fueled by the fact people have already bought cars? the prices have gone skyhigh. we are having production issues which leads us to 10:00 a.m., the ism manufacturing data in the u.s. following softening out of europe. now we are dealing with maybe covid is not there but the shock of what is going on with the ukrainian war. even in china and you are seeing the biggest plunge there in manufacturing going back to the heart of the pandemic. it is a complicated picture of dueling shocks. jonathan: thank you. that is why it is central -- difficult to be a central banker. priya misra, let's start with jobs data. what are you looking for? priya: we are looking for 350,000.

some of the higher frequency indicators we track suggesting slumming and growth momentum. 350,000 is still very strong. we do think it changes anything for the fed. expect them to go 50, another 50 and then continue with 25 basis points. tom: what does the labor economy do and the rate economy do? the entire spectrum of rates given nominal gdp at 14%, moving data something like 5% or 6%. is there a change or not? is it just business as usual? priya: it is business as usual for now, because conditions are extreme the accommodating. we look at real rates. they are low on the long end but the fed wants to get to neutral. they want to keep inflation credibility and engineer a soft landing. i don't know if they will be able to do both those things. i think the market is pricing in

that they can tighten conditions, slow growth down. maybe we have to cut a few in 2024 or 2025 to engineer the soft landing. i think growth will slow down and financial conditions are going to tighten. that is the point of fed hikes. it is about the speed of that move. it is the fundamental strength of the economy that it can handle higher costs everywhere, plus higher mortgage rates. we will all have to look at the data. i think a straight line up to 3.5%, i struggle with the market pricing that in. lisa: with the fed prefer orchestrating a soft landing and allowing inflation to become on board, forgetting inflation under control? priya: that is the trillion dollar question. it's a question for later this year. right now we want to get to neutral.

when they get to neutral, that is when your question is something we will be focused on. our view is if some of the broad-based inflation metrics start to do celebrate, we see labor force participation continue to rise, the fed will look at the forecast and it will be weaker. can we tolerate 2.5%, 2.7% to allow growth to slow down? i think they would. trying to engineer the soft landing even if it means a little longer to get to that 2%. if we are not seeing fundamental change, i think they will have no choice but to really take us into a hard any scenario. i think it is too early to make that call right now. jonathan: neutral is a concept we talk about with conviction. people outside a fixed income and wall street said there must be a work that goes into that. how do we come up with what neutral is?

how do we know where it is? priya: there is a lot of academic work on neutral. i would say neutral for the balance sheet. i think the fed is around 2.5% for the funds rate. when you are letting the balance sheet runoff, i would take the lower end. we will find out as we get to neutral if it is slowing growth. i think we realized what neutral is in the last cycle. 2.5% on the funds rate was too high if you're also going through qt. i would argue 2% to 2.5% is neutral. the key question is how much higher will the fed ? -- the fed go? i do think there is evidence that neutral is high today post-pandemic. lisa: we are 90 minutes away

from the payroll report. does it matter? priya: the headline really does not matter. i would look at participation wages. these are questions -- her ultimate question is will the fed be able to engineer a soft landing? if wage inflation remains high, the fear around this will mean they will have to hike above neutral. i don't think it matters as much for me. it matters how much higher than neutral do they have to go. jonathan: thank you as always. one of the best on wall street. priya misra from td securities. i got that goldman note from jeff curry on the energy move from the administration. the first page concludes like this. the was policy use of an spr release, a potential deal with iran, extreme price volatility are exacerbated uncertainty face

by producers reducing incentive to invest more. that's inclusion of jeff curry -- that is the conclusion of jeff curry. tom: that is the heated agreement of paul sankey. heated with curry there. we will not see the investment clicking as before. i was that is struck by priya misra and the distance between her and andrew hallman horst. where is the comfort of higher rates? that is much lower than what we're hearing from citigroup. jonathan: financial conditions are still pretty easy. they are not that restrictive, are they? in some weeks in the last few months they have become less restrictive, even as the fed announced plans to hike of interest rates. if you want to get inflation down, you have to get restrictive.

you have to constrain demand. to do that you have to move in 50 basis point increments. not at one meeting over a series of meetings. lisa: one of the biggest wildcards is how the fed treats off march is continuing to expand. if companies do well, that could be a negative for them. at this point are they looking to the stock market to decline to actually take their paddle off the gas? -- pedal off the gas? jonathan: it did not work out. they went back to fixed income. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date with the first word. bloomberg has learned the u.k.

has agreed to join the u.s. and releasing oil from its strategic reserves. no word on how big that release will be. president biden announced the u.s. will release one million barrels of oil a day for six months. the goal is to lower gasoline prices and reduce dependence on foreign oil. ukraine says direct talks with russia are set to resume today. the negotiations will be by video link instead of face-to-face. russia says ukraine forces made a rare strike across the border. two helicopters hit a russian oil facility. expect another strong u.s. jobs report. employers added 490,000 jobs in march. the end of limit rate is expected to fall .1% to 3.7%. eurozone inflation has accelerated to another all-time high. in march, prices rose 7.5%, well above the median estimate.

russia's invasion of ukraine drove already rising energy prices even higher. it also caused more problems for global supply chains. shares of gamestop sword in premarket trading. they are announcing plans for a stock split. gamestop has become the poster child for so-called meme stocks. he was boosted by 700% in 2021. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i am lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the geopolitical situation, the energy situation is very severe. i think we are insulated. what i think about the global situation coupled with the federal reserve potentially hiking rapidly, maybe one in four in the next 18 months, it is significant. jonathan: the city global chief economist on the outlook. good morning. .4% on the s&p and nasdaq 100 up .5%. payrolls is one hour and 20 minutes away.

the estimate is 490,000. in the ukraine were continues and talks continue. tom: it's a busy jobs day. there is percolating in the zeitgeist something interesting. it is unconfirmed but the financial times summarizes the unconfirmed reports of two helicopters of ukraine unconfirmed moving 50 miles north over russian territory to take out a fuel depot. we have to be careful with this because it is really stewing now without confirmation. maria tadeo and maria tadeo --emily wilkins. what is the significance of this is true of ukrainian movement and a russian territory? maria: we have to be careful but we know according to russia two ella terry helicopters hit a depot.

it's on the border of ukraine and russia. it would mark the first escalation from ukraine into russian territory. the russians say vladimir putin has been briefed on this. they are looking at the information but they are hinting the timing of this is not ideal, because there was not supposed to be around of talks today. when you talk to the ukrainians, they don't have the full picture. we don't have confirmation. they say be very careful about what russian said -- russia says because it can be a false flag. lisa: a lot of people believe we have heard this is a way for russia to regroup and go harder into the region. is that what the allies are viewing this as, way for russia to re-escalate or back away from some of the talks? maria: yes. there are two important points to make.

ukrainian officials have said for a long time there may concern now is they are unable to take the capital kia. we -- kyiv. it was fortified. it was sealed by ukrainian officials. unable to make ways west, they would move to the east and separate the country. he would be each ukraine, west ukraine. then you sit down for the real talks. that is what ukrainians worry about. officials say the same thing. they don't see anything on the ground but would point to a de-escalation on the military operation moving troops from one place to another. the big concern is you can see the country split in two. lisa: emily, we heard from president biden yesterday about gas prices in the united states. he talked about the oil reserve release. how much is there a focus on gas supplies to europe?

have we heard anything comprehensive out of the white house about what they are doing on that front? emily: part of this release is to bring down gas prices in the u.s., but it's also to help the allies overseas in europe. the u.s. only gets about 10% of gas from russia. higher from many european allies. the administration has committed to that. they have committed to helping out. even with the 100 million barrels the u.s. is releasing, that's not enough to cover the worldwide supply that could be lost from russian oil. you are seeing other countries begin to step up and tap into their reserves. u.k. announced 30 million barrels this morning. it is going to be a huge impact. for the messaging we are hearing from the biden administration, he said yesterday he talked about patriotism. he tied that he has. this is the messaging coming

from the white house. a lot of americans are not buying that but it is the message the democrats are pushing. tom: we will talk about the jobs report. emily wilkins, if the germans and russians screw this up, what do we do? send in an armada of boats across the atlantic? forget about the happy talk patriot stuff. what do we actually do to assist our allies? emily: there is really no appetite right now in washington to take american troops and bring them over to ukraine and get them involved in this at all. you saw the strict deployments to poland and other areas in eastern europe. when you talk to lawmakers about this, they are not there yet. they are the point of sanctioning russia and going ahead and providing aid to ukraine. lawmakers have said there could potentially be a redline, maybe if nukes were used, nuclear warheads.

maybe large-scale atrocities going on. at this point those discussions are not happening. jonathan: thank you. it is very frustrating. this is about politics and not making good policy. it often is. you find something to blame, a piñata. in this case it is domestic oil producers and go after them. just going over some the lines from this. we risk this incentivizing producers are unsustainable production to replace russian barrels and encourage consumers to use just as much gasoline. the opposite needs to happen. the last line is so important. no one wants to come out and say it. people need to use less energy. tom: we have not got there yet. that will happen with price. it is always about price. jonathan: no. they come up with a plan. 10 points on how to use less

energy. the bottom line is no one was to be the person to come out and say dial the thermostat down and put on a sweater. tom: we did this. jonathan: it is terrible politics. instead we go after an oil producer and blame them. tom: my sisters can see their breath giving the first oil crisis. my father turned the heat down so low in the house. we could play hockey in the living room. jonathan: how did that work out? tom: it was great. jon, my question to emily and it will be the same. in world war ii, we did a convoy to europe to help with supplies. is anything like that feasible if the germans face what they will face in april of this year? jonathan: if they have to face strict and supply coming out of russia. it will be tricky. that's a different story

altogether, what happens with european gas and their access to energy. domestically we have a conversation coming up in about 35 minutes. yields up six or seven basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: big conversation coming up in about 30 minutes about energy. futures up .4% on the s&p. nasdaq up around .5%. the first quarterly loss on the s&p going back two years. in the bond market, yield higher. last month up by 90 basis points on the two-euro loan. -- two-year alone. the difference has gotten narrower, taller. the curve has gone flatter. many people suspect and they start pushing back. for the relevance of that in the future of this economy. lisa: people looking at the federal reserve saying it is irrelevant and then saying is the best indicator you can have, the fed saying don't look at

this. you know what happens then. going back to priya misra, between the soft landing and information -- inflation. jonathan: the slow story around inflation. is it a soft landing or a choice? lisa: that is what a lot of people are saying. mohamed el-erian was speaking about how he would go on the side of not going quickly enough because of the fear of recession. jonathan: here's the story in foreign-exchange. euro looks like this. negative about .1%. cpi and europe a problem for the ecb. 7.5%. looking for something with 6%. came in at 7%. the alarm bell might be ringing at the european central bank. let's get some press actions. romaine: some of the active

stocks in the u.s. are stocks based in china. chinese authorities are working on a framework to resolve one of the big regulatory disputes between the u.s. and china. this is about giving regulators will access to the audited report of the 200 plus chinese company listed in the york. the nasdaq golden dragon. four straight quarterly losses. dad about 65% from the all-time high. a lot of this is because of regulatory overhang. alibaba up about 7%. didi one of the bigger performers. we should point out this is based on bloomberg reporting, citing people familiar with the matter. we've heard from fcc chairman gary gensler about the potential for progress on this issue. elsewhere in the u.s., a little bit of a bit coming back to the

meme stocks. gamestop announcing they will pursue a stock split. this was a press release saying they plan to do something and they plan to ask for authorization at the annual meeting that still has not been scheduled. shares nevertheless up 16%. amc moving higher, 4.5%. blackberry moving lower here. down about 4% after reporting earnings. this company does not make phones anymore. tom: what did they do? romaine: security software for mobile devices. that business looks like it might be slowing. tom: i have a blackberry that is used as a chew toy. looking at the close this afternoon to begin the second quarter this year. it is always instructive to speak with macro policy perspectives julia coronado. she was absolutely definitive in nailing a slowdown in economic

growth. thank you so much for joining us today. what will the next slowdown in economic growth look like? julia: we have one in trend right now. gdp tracking lower in q1. that was the intention of a lot of the removal of policy, slow down the economy and cool it off. we are already seeing evidence that is taking hold. consumers -- it is not necessarily a worrisome slowdown. the consumer is getting a lot thrown at them right now with higher gas prices, the removal of fiscal support, higher mortgage rates. we are undeniably going to see a slowdown. the question is how fast we slowdown. tom: let's go john williams on you, maybe david branch. the un-appointment rate trends

down in a fully employed america in terms of an implement rate, the other side is the rate restructure. can you say the great moderation is over? julia: i don't think we know that. we have been hit with one of the biggest shocks we have ever seen in our lifetime. not just in terms of the pandemic and all that came with it but the structure of the economy has been shocked. the shift to good spending is the biggest we have seen since world war ii. this is an enormous shock to the structure of the economy. we are still reeling and dealing with the pandemic in terms of global supply chains in china. it is hard to say that with the dynamic looks like on the others. it has been shock aftershock aftershock. the economy is reacting and adapting but it does not happen overnight. in terms of what the labor

market looks like on the others of these shocks, do we get to the other side of the shocks? what did those wage inflation dynamics look like? obviously the fed is concerned. they don't want things to become more deeply entrenched than they already are. all we talk about is inflation. they are worried, getting inside the heads of consumers and businesses. they are willing to take some risks of a bumpier -- chair powell called it softish landing. you have got to ensure that slowdown is underway and those inflationary pressures don't broaden and deepen further. lisa: what do you hope to see in the labor report that would give you a sense of thing will be increasingly concerned about inflation expectations becoming umoored? julia: ever faster? please keep ratcheting faster and faster.

one thing in the last report was some good signs. we thought we have a very well established recovery and labor force participation. we talked about it last year the fed worried about it not appearing. it is here it is definitely here. you look at labor force participation. that seemed to provide some relief on wages. we saw lower gains in wages. we will look to see if that continues. if it doesn't, i don't know the fed needs to ratchet ever faster. they have signaled they will go out of much faster pace this time and start the cycle with maybe a couple of 50 basis point rate hikes. i think if we get strong wage growth and no gain in labor force participation, that's a

more inflationary report and vice versa. the further rebound and participation. we have seen reach close -- rage growth -- wage growth last year moderating in the last two months. it has been flat. it looks like a level shift for that sector. we can see more normal wage dynamics going forward. those are kind of the tea leaves we are looking at in terms of wage growth more important as ever as part of the employment report in terms of reading inflationary tea leaves. are we seeing ever higher, broader wage inflation or seeing it more of a rotation in wage inflation from the sector several hot last year to a broader base but more moderate this year? lisa: do you think the fed has to either cause a recession or allow inflation to be materially higher for a longer-term than they have been comfortable within in the past? julia: there is a whole range of

possibilities in between. certainly recession risks are higher combining everything we are seeing globally. does the fed need to cause a recession? that is not the intention but they are slowing the economy down. actively moving to slow the economy down. the risks in that direction are higher. whether we need that to cool inflation, i think there is a lot of framing of this discussion as if it is the phillips curve dynamic. it is still the case this is not primarily or dominantly a phillips curve dynamic. there is a lot of supply chain issues complicating things. you can see that because regardless of different labor market experiences and different physical levels of support -- levels of fiscal support, we are seeing inflation rise around the world. if we can cool demand, it will not be a linear thing. these macro models don't capture

these inflation dynamics. once good inflation moderates to the point -- when good demands moderates to the point where supply chain pressure eases, it will ease. you will start seeing price competition and consumer good markets again. i think there is a whole range of possibilities where we can see inflation cool. if the housing market cools substantially, that will be an important source of moderation in inflation over time. i think we can see some bumps on the road, whether that turns into an outright recession you look at this economy, this labor market, the consumer balance sheets. it has a really good base for resilience. jonathan: that is a chairman pahlavi. julia coronado, thank you as always.

mohamed el-erian was on with francine lacqua this morning. if you want to get inflation down, the price you have to pay as recession or tolerate higher inflation. it is one of the other. i wonder if that is the case. lisa: i can't answer that question. obviously i don't have a crystal ball. what priya misra was saying echo that. the flirtation with curve inversion suggests the same thing. there is a feeling that perhaps mohammed is right. jonathan: futures up .5%. payroll at 830 eastern time -- 8:30 eastern time. the estimate is 490,000. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. president biden says russian leader vladimir putin may have fired some of his advisors or put them under house arrest.

he said it's an open question whether putin is informed on how his military is doing in ukraine. they come in says those remarks are example of this information. european union leaders have a warning for china's president xi jinping. china will hurt its global stature if it helps russia during the war in ukraine. the message will be delivered in a virtual summit today. the warning will test beijing's commitment to keep the war from damaging its ties with the eu. shanghai has started part two of its own phased lockdown. it is confining 16 million people in the western part of the city to their homes. a locked out of eastern shanghai just ended. during the lockdown residence were barred from leaving their homes unless they are going out for mandatory covid tests. the house has moved forward the key piece of president biden's drug price agenda, limiting into linda $35 a month. now it is up to the senate where

a bipartisan group is coming up with an insulin proposal. it is called the peter principle, one of the mainstays of new york economics. it states the price of a slice of pizza will always be the same as the subway ride. it has held true for decades. not anymore. the price of a plane slice is three dollars throughout the city thanks to higher commodity and labor costs. in manhattan, $3.26. subway fares have been frozen at $2.75. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i am lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i really believe we are underestimating the medium-term impacts.

we will have consequences, longer-lasting consequences on energy security, food security, digital security, payment security. jonathan: that is the big worry here. that is dr. lawrence boone. we have not realized the aftershocks of all of this for the next year and maybe beyond. good morning to you. futures up .4% on the s&p 500. and 42 minutes, payroll support. the estimate, 490,000. tom: we will dive into that. we have a former governor of the federal reserve system. an important report focusing on inflation teases we may get out of those two reports. we digress and we do so with my book of the summer, " 2034: a novel of the next world.

' they had no idea how it would turn to ukraine. the former marine joins us this morning. you have legit military duty and are working in afghanistan. you worked with the cia at the end of the tour. the atlantic article of you speaking to a modern marine was stunning about the reality on the ground in kyiv and ukraine. what was the distinction of your conversation with the marine in your atlantic essay? elliott: as you might know there has been large numbers of foreign fighters, americans, brits, individuals from the balkan states you have come to ukraine to fight. i had a conversation with a former marine who served in some of the similar infantry units i served in. he was fighting around kyiv for the first month of the war.

the salient point he was making to me was that the antitank weapons we deployed to ukraine for making a huge difference in that fight and allowing two or three well armed ukrainians to stop entire russian armored columns. that was one of the most salient points he made, and the intensity of the fighting he witnessed which exceeded anything he participated in in afghanistan. tom: take us beyond the media reports of brave journalists and ukraine -- in ukraine. how do the russians adapt to a difficult march? elliott: it is yet to be seen if they are going to be able to adapt. the russian way of warfare is different than the american or western way of warfare. one of the most critical ways it manifests is the russians have a difficult time adapting because they have extremely centralized decision-making structures.

all the decisions are made by a group of colonels or generals. those decisions are disseminated down to subordinates who are not supposed to show individual initiative. in the western military we fight with mission tactics. even the lowest 21 euros corporal understands the mission and intent behind the mission because the expectation is the plan will not work, the enemy has -- everyone has to adapt. western militaries are adaptable. the ukrainians since 2014 have undergone a series of reforms to make them more like western militaries. we are seeing the contest between a western military style of fighting and a classic soviet or russian style in ukraine. the result has been a lack of russian adaptability. lisa: the west has perhaps miscast by other nations following other rules that transplant their own.

are we overstating our understanding that hit to morale people are talking about among russian troops? elliott: i think we are underestimating it. we continually unstrapped -- underestimate the hit to morale but habitually overestimating russian capability and underestimating ukrainian capability. we for some reason seem unwilling to concede to the idea ukrainians can win the war and are winning this war right now. it is important to note there is historical precedent for this. in the second world war, russia, which defeated germany, invaded finland. a small nation but very nationalistic and they defeated the soviets. there is precedent for this. ukrainians are winning. i think having spent time there that we should back a winner. that's usually a good strategy and support the ukrainians in this fight. tom: we have taken great pride in our interviews with the military in this war.

you may be aware there is another division of the u.s. military called the army. we met with the general kim and a substantial infantry experience in germany and the persian gulf. he was heated that the russians were unprepared for the urban battles to come in the work. is that what we have observed? what are the new urban battles looking like for the russians? elliott: we are seeing the russians make some gains in a few select ukrainian cities. they had a completely destroyed the cities to win. the much larger story is in places like kyiv, cities that are center of gravity politically. the russians have not even got into kyiv. they have been stopped in the suburbs. it's a city of 4 million people. the russians simply do not have the troops to task, meaning the

troops they would need to accomplish the mission to take a city like you have, let alone take the entire country. ukraine is a nation of over 40 million people. the russians have a force of 200,000. it is a nation that has been completely mobilized unlike anything i have seen in my lifetime. this is the fourth where i have been around. how much people are mobilized from 20-year-olds up to kids who are helping like making camouflage nets to grandmothers. it will be difficult for the russians to achieve anything more than potentially some limited territorial gains. at that i don't know if ukrainians would allow president zelenskyy to give territory because they perceive themselves to be winning. why should we be ceding anything that we are winning this war? jonathan: elliott, a clinic in education. elliott ackerman.

tom, you follow the map more than anyone i know. where is your focus shifting to? tom: the plexi. i'm sorry, but it is about water and the navy. that is the ancient peter the great russian heritage. they need a path to the black sea. will they moved to edessa? i don't know -- odessa? i don't know. this week has been a dearth of information about how ukraine responds to the black sea advance of the russians. jonathan: how important is it in that respect that turkey is the mediator? tom: it has to do with turkey being in a sensitive position. what i would focus on more than turkey is the comment that nato on romania, the buildout of the western world on the shores of the black sea. that's a great mystery one, 2, 5

years out. jonathan: counting you down to payrolls. that report is 35 minutes away. up .4% on the s&p. crude lower by 120%. the white house on oil, next. ♪

>> in the equity markets there is more optimism around the fed being able to rein in inflation. >> they want to ca deceleration in inflation, not so much a deceleration -- >> there doesn't seem to be any relief around the corner. >> there is a belief at the end of the year the markets will balance. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on