>> investors one higher yields but they don't like the path together. >> jury would be out for an inflation hedge. >> the central banks don't want to be caught too far behind the fed. >> getting a positive growth number for this quarter is going to be a challenge. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom kean, jonathan darrow and lisa abramowitz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. futures are negative 2/10 of 1%. the pressure is piling up on the europeans. tom: the grim headlines are something. danny blanche flowers is the ecb

will not raise rates. dovetail that with the big tech move in america where big tech growth is moving. perhaps they won't raise rates as much. it's this true grimness in europe. jonathan: because growth is decelerating. the energy crisis threatens growth. the question i have, the proposal this morning is on banning coal imports. is there a redline for the europe sheehan that the russians could cross when buying russian gas and russian oil becomes too much? tom: the papers are doing the best they can to pretend it's 1950 and we don't show people these power fig images. the twitter feed is the modern newspaper. those images are appalling whether they are alleged or not.

they are being overcome by events. jonathan: deeply distressing. lisa: which is the reason why you are hearing harsher rhetoric. some people are saying perhaps oil and gas is on the table. is the market telling us there is a redline? didn't think europe will go through with oil and gas sanctions because they are not seeing much of a move in crude prices. days ago, we were talking about that potential. jonathan: is there a sign there is not much left? tom: lisa: on twitter, they mentioned that they mentioned that their crossing into energy not being taboo in how much does that become the conversation and how much of a pounding do they have to take from their own trajectory?

jonathan: futures are slightly down but yields are higher. the 10 year is up seven basis points. the two year is up four or five basis points. lisa: why are oil prices not even higher given the mounting pressure to do more in light of the images that we saw over the weekend? we will hear more on that on what the rest of the world can do. vladimir zelinski will address the united nations at 10:00 a.m. and we have european finance ministers meeting in luxembourg for two days. do they talk about the potential for oil and gas sanctions? do we care more about what germany and the rest of europe is doing to divert away from relying on russia? they expect to hear more from the united kingdom on that front

stop the kansas city fed president is joining michael mckee at about 10 a.m. and other fed speakers, lots of them. do they discuss this concern that people have that perhaps the fed is behind the curve. you -- real yields are rising but they are perhaps the least negative going back a long ways. at the same time, they are still negative. at 10 a.m., we get ism data. how much will that make up for the slow down we are seeing in industrials and you are seeing the unemployment rate fall the most since before the pandemic. tom: we are so far away from potentially restrictive, miles away from a restrictive policy.

we are living ineffectual time -- a fictional time. the taylor rule gap is something no one has ever theorized. jonathan: you don't like the parlor game but you laid out the citigroup argument. tom: i have sent in john taylor's parlor in palo alto and i have said it's very elegant in the taylor rule dominates. jonathan: thank you. tom: and he serves pie. jonathan: let's get real about sanctions. a proposal to do something about coal, can you start there? mar wheni you get something ona paper in the european: union

that means it will get approved. otherwise you debate around it behind the scenes but you don't write it down. the fact that we have something in paper says that tomorrow, this will be approved and in my view, there are big restrictions coming in for russian shipping and ports coming into europe. the other thing is that you could say we are disappointed, there is no gas or oil but we knew this would be a crescendo. you start with: and finally you get to oil and gas and that will be the position for the german industry. tom: what will the president of the united states to today about the images on twitter and in the papers and on television? annm the president reiterated that he believesarie: vladimir

putin is a war criminal and he says this guy is brutal and everybody has seen an itself rages. we got a briefing from his national security advisor jake sullivan which said what's going on across ukraine are war crimes. what they are outlining is what will be the penalties from these images we are all witnessing. jake sullivan said we will get new sanctions this week. he said energy is part of that discussion and what we are seeing is potentially a window to that, hitting the russian fossil fuel second -- sector with these potential coal bands. lisa: do you fear enough about what germany in particular is doing to fortify its energy stream ahead of potential sanctions like that? maria: we talked about the

russian arm of gas in germany. they also talk about getting another energy supplier. the german finance minister said in the eyes of the german government, we have to work with more sanctions. if it hurts the german economy, that is a problem for us but ultimate, a lot of this is a power struggle between the german political class in the german industry which would hurt . deutsche bank said it would put them into recession. they talked about when will the chancellor wake up to this and finally enact what germany says. they said never again after world war ii so that the economic tension but also the politics. jonathan: is this still an

economic russian or a moral one? annmarie: that is really the point. maria: germany talks about if we go into recession where russia operates at semi normal. will the war come to an end if we ban gas? there is a question about ukraine and many eateries whether you believe this is a military operation or just strategic or your you believe that this is existential, that russia and ukraine cannot coexist in their current forms. if you are in the german industry, you don't see in and to the war even if you ban gas. jonathan: thank you. based on the reporting, this wouldn't be a ban on russian coal, it would be a mandatory

phase out on russian in -- on russian coal imports. tom: buried in that article is the idea of trucks and ships which is just as important. the idea of restricting transportation logistics is arguably just as important. jonathan: a mandatory phase out? lisa: this is a first step in our we seeing this as a threshold into a more serious conversation about oil and gas vans. are people willing to go into recession in order to draw a line for what are saying are absolute atrocities similar to what you saw in world war ii? i wonder what the tipping point will be. are the sanctions working? they say the sanctions are not

working fast enough. jonathan: there is a bid for chelsea football club in one of them is the former disney chief bob iger. that story came from sky news moments ago. tom: people in entertainment with tons of money see the magnet that is premier league football. where is jamie dimon in this? he can afford to write a check. he loves ted lasso. jonathan: you think you might look at a chelsea football club? tom: he can buy richmond. jonathan: you got a massive franchise available and there is some big money. tom: what numbers are they talking about? jonathan: north of $3 billion,

it could be more than that. coming up, cracks beneath the surface of the equity market. this is bloomberg. ritika: news from around the world, the eu will propose a mandatory phase out of russian coal imports in a direct response to russian troops committing apparent war crimes in ukraine. the european commission is expected to propose banning most russian trucks and ships from entering the block. the u.s.'s increasing pressure on moscow to find the turn of ways to pay bond investors. investors have halted dollar debt payments from russian account at u.s. banks. russia can drain its dollar reserves, spend on new revenue or going into default. the u.s. senate has judge ketanji brown jackson on track to be approved for the supreme court this week stop for

confirmation is all but set with three republican saying they will vote in favor. in shanghai, a sweeping lockdown of 25 million residents has said it's stemming the spread of covid. they have reported level of over 13,000 cases. north carolina was beaten last night for the men's best ball championship in the ncaa. it's the fourth time kansas has won the title. global news, 24 hours it day, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the commission is already preparing the next sanctions package and we should be able to decide on the ambitious next steps regarding the sanctions so we must step up pressure against russia we must step up our support for ukraine. jonathan: that was the vice president of the eu commission, the proposal is a phased out than russian coal imports. future this morning are down about order of 1%. yields are higher by six basis

points, short of 246 on the 10 year. crude is 104 dollars and $.11. the line on gas from germany stating the german dependence on russian energy imports was a mistake. tom: yes, that would be true. here is this headline that captures the moment. france had a huge election and now opens the ukraine were crimes case on possible french victims. it will not happen. from the shock of what we saw friday to last week, this is ramped up and its front and center. the equity markets give you perspective from names from the

past. it may be the pioneer funds for the templeton funds. long ago and far away, there was the windsor fund of vanguard. he is with lack rock today. tony, wonderful to have you. it is so far removed from the client of those traditional flagship funds of decades of go. how do you adapt and adjust in managed conservative dividend investments given the turmoil we are reporting minute by minute? >> it's good to be on. you are right, we live in unprecedented times and we could go through covid, the war in ukraine, inflation at the highest numbers we've seen in 40 years. we've got inverted yield curve and i think the thing to do is

to apply good old-fashioned common sense investing. that means making sure you have sufficient resiliency built into your folio. in the black rock equity dividends fund, we do that -- you want to participate in some of the deeply depressed economic sectors meeting financials and energy but you want to balance that with some of the most attractive, more stable sectors, namely health care, technology. given the events in market moves of the recent past, that barbell is tilting more in favor of the service sector. lisa: you're talking about adding to beaten up names with instability. what are those names? >> i think the health care sector cries out in that it's a

sector that has really underperformed since covid. the stocks of not done well. when you look at underlying fundamentals of health care, the long-term fundamentals are good and the society is getting older and you need more help here as you get older so the demand is there. that is a lot of liquidity in companies in a number of the company stocks are down dramatically. we think there is a real opportunity there and it runs in sectors. it could have medical devices or covid recovery plans. you have innovation in the pharma space in the hmo space, you have companies helping to control costs and stop the problem of rising demand. i think there is opportunity throughout this sector. lisa: many people thought security selection would lead to dramatic outperformance in a way where you get significant returns. are we moving to an area where inflection has changed and now

it's becoming a weathering strategy, a way to have stability and reserve your money? >> i think stock selection will become increasingly important particularly focusing on companies that are facing cost pressures and which are not. which companies have pricing power so they can price it on the consumers. what is the market thing about all that? what is reflected in the stock price and how much risk is there? i think in this time of rising rates and rising inflation, stockpicking is becoming more important. in the 1970's, that's what you saw. + jonathan: thank you very much. many people thought what would happen and has not evolved is that small caps, people were

looking relative outperformance. tom: it's really interesting to see. everyone in the value space and people like tony with a sophisticated approach to value. in the last number of weeks, absolutely humble by the growth in this rally. that affects small caps. that affects international stocks as well off of the dollar. jonathan: we've got to reset the conversation stuff how many times that we said it's time for stock picking an active management? every single year. tom: this is an important issue and is one of my most famous interviews, john vogel in the raging debate over this was a wonderful moment with the late john vogel. jonathan: i remember that, that was special. tom: we learned that a

first-rate mathematician going at it with john vogel, bright guy who is very much based on concepts. it was the nerdy part of the business on active versus a much more conceptual belief driven behavioral debate of mr. vogel. it was absently great to see them put this up against active and how you do active and more important is what it takes to outperform if you have to move the needle against a large pot of money? what is that marginal active decision for a big pension fund or a big multi-billion-dollar mutual fund? jonathan: we are still having the same debate. lisa: i wonder if the tenor of it has changed. the fed has been the main game but doesn't change when they pull it back and you are allowing more volatility on that front? do you get areas they can be your stability if you pick the right businesses and right names? that is the argument on the

other side? jonathan: futures are down about quarter of 1%. yields are higher by seven basis points on the 10 year. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪.

>> over at j.p. morgan thing the risk-reward of this market is not as poor as it is currently fashionable to believe. morgan stanley taking the other side of that. futures down on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down 0.2%. the reason the team have that view is this idea that the fed repricing might be close to the end, and we could see a mechanical peak in the inflation story over the next several months. you see the s&p down around 5% on the year. you see it in the sectors in a big way. one sector that gets talked about a lot and another that does not get talked about enough. s&p 500 energy, on the year up 38%. the homebuilders year to date are down 27%.

i know is it -- i know it is invoked to talk about the transports, but this is the story of the year so far for me. the homebuilders already rolling over, anticipating that rate hiking cycle and what it might do to this economy and to that sector. tom: that folds into the mortgage rates. is it the mortgage rate or is it the rate of change of the mortgage rate? you wonder how much mortgage you can buy given where interest rates are. it gets smaller and smaller. jonathan: these homebuilders have adjusted in a big way. twos-tens and 30's look like this. just in and around that line in the sand, the difference between some steepness and just a little bit of inversion. tom: we have come so far. frances donald moments ago was mesmerizing in her distinctive differences with william dudley,

the former president of the new york fed, or mohamed el-erian. the raging debate forgets how far we have come in 100 days. jonathan: the argument frances set up is so important for the back half of this year, whether we have fully clarified the reaction function of the federal reserve, if they have to choose between containing inflation and preventing a recession. is that the choice they have to make later this year? let's hope it is not. lisa: right now they have made it clear their big concern is inflation. does that change if you start to get material data pointing to that slow down? jonathan: some single names, we can do that with kailey leinz. kailey: i want to begin with the cruise lines because carnival was out after the bell yesterday saying it just had a record in weekly bookings, up double digits from the previous record. listing its guidance that cruises should be avoided, basically we are moving past the

pandemic in many ways in the travel sector. carnival is up about 4% on the back of that. some of its competitors getting a lift as well. of course, i also want to check on the big mover of yesterday, twitter. it had its best day since 2013, up 27% on the news that elon musk had amassed a 9.2 percent passive stake in the company. we will see how passive that really is considering he's already advocating for an edit button on twitter. one analyst at jefferies saying he thinks the rally yesterday may have been overdone because it is over -- it is unclear exact he what elon musk means to accomplish with that stake. nevertheless, up 1.3% for that stock. gains not continuing for tesla. it reported record deliveries for the first quarter over the weekend, up more than 5% on the back of that yesterday. getting some of that back this morning, down about 0.7%. in electric air vehicles, a stock i wanted to point to is

lily him -- is lilium, saying they are starting another round of testing on aircrafts. tom: right now the conversation of the day for people clipping coupons, kathy jones joins us, chief income strategist at charles schwab. the bloomberg corporate total return index is down 8.6%, and i'm going to guess i've given up to and a half years of coupon enjoying the price decline in corporate bonds. there is the full faith in credit story as well. the great dynamics here, this is tuesday dynamics on "bloomberg surveillance," the great dynamic here is with a rising coupon, it is ok to step in and buy even with further price erosion because now i've got a decent coupon. are we there yet?

kathy: we have recently pivoted towards adding more duration to portfolios and have been pretty outspoken about things like investment corporate bonds, even high-yield. all things considered, we think a lot is priced in in this market, and we do see growth slowing down in the second half of the year a bit. we had a brutal first quarter in fixed income, so we think now is the time to step in and factor in some of that income. tom: what is a decent corporate coupon right now? what is the yield i can expect? kathy: i think on the index it is around 3.6% plus. so you can be in some, depend on

where you want to be an investment grade, it can be 3.5% up to 4% perhaps. preferred, we are seeing 5% or 6%. so these look pretty decent if you believe inflation will trend lower later in the year. tom: i'm looking at a very famous american name with a 12 year piece of paper, a coupon of one and 3/8 yield. lisa: i love that you do your bond shopping online while we are talking on live television. [laughter] tom: i've got my blue s&p book on my desk so i can look up my boise cascade bond. tom: i will let you -- lisa: i will let you do that, but i want to go back to what frances

donald was saying, that you do think inflation is going to roll over. that you think there's a transitory nature to this that was prolonged by the pandemic moving to the crisis, and that that is what is really going on with the crisis driven inflation we are seeing. do you also think the fed will not be able to raise rates nearly as much as people are pricing in before they get concerned about growth concerns? kathy: we have been in that camp all along. or i guess i should say i have been in that camp all along. i think the fed now has to come out guns blazing declaring that they are going to conquer inflation because that is their job. i am sure they mean it. but when push comes to shove and we get the slower inflation -- the lower inflation and slower growth, will they really be able to follow through on that? will they need to follow through on that, or can they slow down the pace? you add in qt, which i think is

being underestimated here, and we've got a lot of tightening in liquidity coming into the market just in the last couple of months and maybe over the course of the next couple of months, so we get to the end of the year, and we think the picture is going to look a lot different in the fed will be able to slow down a bit. lisa: we were talking to frances about how she things we are getting close to the peak in the 10 year yield, a pretty bold call when you've got the likes of credit suisse coming out on the opposite side, saying we could see 2.8% on the 10 year because of the same thing you just mentioned, quantitative tightening. where do you fall on this? kathy: i don't think quantitative tightening is negative for the long end. i don't see that supply weigh in on the long end. we don't know what they are going to do yet, but that is probably a lot shorter duration than it looks on the balance sheet. i don't see q2 weighing so much

on the long end of the curve. when you go back to the last people of qt, we saw some curve flattening. i think it is more of a liquidity drain, and that is a slowing growth story. don't forget, we are getting tightening liquidity and higher rates globally. that can compound the situation. lisa: so you think we have seen the peak so far in 10 year yields? kathy: i think we are pretty close to it. our call for this year was around 2.25% on the 10 year, so as rates move above that, 2.5% or above, we will see -- jonathan: wonderful to catch up with you, as always. we've got something really powerful in the works, a balance sheet unwind, and no one can agree on what it will do when it starts. lisa: there isn't a lot of

history here. even fed officials have said we do not understand the reaction function as well is unwinding the balance sheet. we will read about what the details are perhaps in the minutes. jonathan: looking forward to that. are you? tom: i've got the alarm set. vet bill and i will look into that. i think i will have to have an early beverage of my choice. i may have some beverages or several beverages. usually i have a few. jonathan: we know that, tom. just getting a headline from valdis dombrovskis out of europe. they will continue to ramp up sanctions on russia. we just got to that point now, i think a lot of people have come on gas come on crude. tom: maria tadeo just putting out an internal note on the importance of the austrian leadership going to kyiv. this is hugely fluid, and let's be clear here, it is just about

atrocity, or as putin would say, alleged atrocity. the alleged must is -- the allegedness is perhaps drifting away. jonathan: we've got the austrian delegation going. we got the european commission as well. von der leyen going, too. lisa: when you go to a place that has been devastated ace on these pictures, how do you then come back and say could do more, but let's wait and see? i think the timeframe is really the key aspect here. this is why i wonder what the u.s. is doing with tightening the screws on russian finances. jonathan: should we catch up with a man who will actually read the fed minutes, tom porcelli? joining us a little bit later, 8:30 eastern, from rbc capital. i can guarantee i know a man who won't be reading the minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world,

i'm ritika gupta. a lot of are zelenskyy ill address that you zelenskyy will address the u.n. sick -- volodymyr zelenskyy will address the un security council today. he said the death toll may be even higher. bloomberg has learned the pentagon will be sending ukraine new switchblade drones under tank busting warheads, in addition to less powerful versions of the unmanned aircraft. the weapons are part of a $300 million package of military assistance announced last week by the defense department. twitter's largest shareholder says he will be a passive investor, but in the hours after elon musk announced he had taken a 9.2% stake in the company, some were skeptical. ark investment management founder cathie wood said it may lead to another management change. >> i will say this could be setting up for another leadership change at twitter. you never know. but i am not jumping to this conclusion automatically. i am saying it is one of many

possibilities. it will either be changing the policy of the company to really open source the censorship, or call people out on censorship, or it will be a management change. i don't know what is going to happen. ritika: the twitter ceo replaced twitter founder jack dorsey in november. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> french president made very clear yesterday that he was open

to extending sanctions to cold and a wheel. we will see what the position of the other mentor states -- the other member states will be, but i think there is possibility to have coordination with these. jonathan: the finance minister considering an embargo of russian oil and coal. futures positive -- negative, rather, by 0.1% on the nasdaq 100, down a little more than 0.1%. yields are higher by six basis points, 2.4616 present on the u.s. 10 year cash 2.461 6% on the u.s. 10 year -- 2.4616% on the u.s. 10 year. these pictures coming in from lima, peru. the peruvian president needed to

impose a curfew in the capital given some of the protests of the last couple of days. tom: peru is absolutely original politics. the president is popular, he is a peasant, he is to the left, and he has become unpopular rapidly over fertilizer and fuel costs. jonathan: and peru won't be alone. we will see a lot of this around the world, unfortunately, in the months to come. tom: right now on this, we want to devolve this away from politics and right to the markets and the dynamics we are going to see. damian sassower our with us, our chief emerging markets credit strategist. i want to go to the strange word we see in peru, in indonesia, and that is controls. we will get controls, and out of controls, and out-of-control we get uncontrolled outcomes. in the financial space, what are the uncontrolled outcomes when we are putting controls on fuel and things?

damian: you forgot my last name for a minute. i saw that. but you're right, it is unique. he has just survived a second impeachment attempt since he has been in office. he just raised the minimum wage. he just put more fuel subsidies in place to help prevent what is going on. but in lima, what you are seeing is protests against inflation. tom: in moscow, what does that look like for markets? damian: monetary tightening across the whole of the zone with the cost-of-living crisis. going back to russia and what we have seen overnight with the u.s. treasury basically taking a hard line, saying you can no longer accept payments from u.s. banks, they are preempting the may 25 decision, attending to put this country into default. clearly the government is not happy that russia has been paying on its debt. it is trying to make it dip into its foreign reserves. we saw a russia's foreign reserves declined by $40 billion to its lowest level in years

just last month. they are trying to add as much pressure as possible. you guys are all right to focus on the energy exports, but to me it has got to be about china. the fact that xi and zelenskyy will finally been meet -- finally be meeting, it is huge news. they are going to be forced to pick a side in the not-too-distant future. lisa: in the stew of emerging markets, i want to go back to rising concern that the cost of food, the cost of energy, the cost of getting things from one place to another absolutely skyrocketing, and that it is only going to get worse. what areas of the world are you watching for social unrest to potentially bleed out into the financial areas simply because that is a very blunt instrument that we used to try to measure things, even though we are very aware of the humanitarian issues on the other side? damian: the countries that appealed to the imf debt service

initiative post-pandemic are now at a high risk of suspension. everyone is feeling it there. the last 10 years, total external debt related to exports across the whole em complex has doubled for get so anything you are hearing about the fact that commodity prices going up or going to be good for certain emerging markets, and they very well may be, but by and large, the amount of debt outstanding across the whole of the emerging-market landscape and developed markets as well, it has gotten excessive. when the water rolls out, you see who's wearing their bathing suits, and we are pretty much there. lisa: what is the historical analog over what we will see in the next six to 12 months? damian: you look to 1998. russia going into default, if you look back at 1998, no one knew they had that exposure to russia. most of the losses were due to bets they made in the short end of the u.s. treasury yield curve. but what happened was they got involved in russian debt, and

when russia defaulted, that is when he found out who wasn't wearing their bathing suits. the real risk in terms of a russian default is not so much that it will hurt the country. it is what is the ancillary exposure to other countries, other trading partners, and other creditors globally. tom: something i have always taken issue with is the mystery of what is in a given country's piggy bank. do we really know what russia's reserves are made of? damian: it is a good question, but what we do know is there's a lot of gold there. tom: can they move it? damian: there's going to be a renewed focus on trying to prevent russia from moving that gold. the u.s. is doing that in venezuela. they are able to sell their gold and generate income off the back of it. you hear about glencore, you hear about some of the other commodity traders really pulling back. jp morgan pulling back on the nickel, and all of commodities. tom: that was not in dimon's letter.

did you read the letter? damian: not all of it. i think the funding is going to be an issue here. i don't think banks want to get behind it. released a piece last night talking about all of this. credit suisse, sometimes the conclusions are inaccurate, but his analysis is pretty in-depth. i have to say, some of the things we are seeing in the commodity space could easily spill over into financial markets. jonathan: should we throw in some sport just because you have done everything else already? what happened? damian: the reality is i did not get to see the game because i fall asleep at 8:30, but the reality is i heard it was an awesome game. nc was up 15 a behalf, kansas came back and won that game. what i win. that power forward as an animal. he's a beast. jonathan: the scheduling of american sports i will never understand. why was that played on a monday

night? damian: i think you have to give them a day's rest. jonathan: give them a week's rest. damian: if i had my druthers, sports scheduling needs to be fixed. i agree with you. jonathan: it just doesn't make sense. you have a run-up through the whole week. saturday daytime game, saturday evening. whatever you want. damian: you get the ratings from the west, but in the east, guys who fall asleep with the tv, you get my ratings as well even though i don't get to see the game. tom: it is based on beer commercials, and it is over. it is just done. it's dated. damian: just when the team cuts to the music? i'm getting. [laughter] jonathan: this is where amy plays the music. it is a small violin. tom: i had a nightmare. can you imagine the damian cam? start with a slide rule. jonathan: everyone can select which camera they would like. the 'bramo cam.

need someone a bit more bullish in the mix. take your pick. we will get a picture of the trading floor at j.p. morgan. lisa: marco. jonathan: get the marco cam. futures negative one point -- -0.1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we are living in a world of 6%, 7%, 8%, almost 9% inflation. >> it is too early to sound an alarm bell on a recession over the next year. >> it has gotten much harder to forecast. >> the good thing for the economy and corporations is they are in such a good place to start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz back in the house,