>> we are living in a world of 6%, 7%, 8%, almost 9% inflation. >> it is too early to sound an alarm bell on a recession over the next year. >> it has gotten much harder to forecast. >> the good thing for the economy and corporations is they are in such a good place to start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz back in the house, and tom

keene. the analysis back to thursday of is this nato, is this russia, or is it just a redux of chechnya is front and center. jonathan: but can the europeans agree on? is it energy? the proposal we have seen that we are reporting on is a baby step towards doing something on coal, coal imports. with that be enough to retake -- to retain any credibility as russia ramp things up? tom: all of it leading to reduced growth, and certainly the most controversial pleat of the investment morning and economic morning is blanchflower really pushing against the certitude of ecb and indirectly said raising rates a lot. jonathan: jamie dimon and jp morgan yesterday, "pity the fed." his words, not mine. let's take the essence of the

spirit of that statement. this federal reserve is in such a tricky position going into the back half of this year, and to repeat what damian sassower set on this program 10 minutes ago, monetary tightening is on a collision course with a cost-of-living crisis. that unfortunately is true of too many countries right now. tom: we will talk to the equity outcome in a moment, but before that, this cost-of-living crisis. anecdotally, day today, every item, grocery store, fuel, and everything else, it is tangible. lisa: we can see the cost-of-living crisis bubbling over in place like peru and even sri lanka. you can see tensions erupting in protests as people really push back. at what point does this become the shaping aspect of the next six months as we take a look at some of these frontier markets, to repeat what damian sassower was saying? tom: i want to go to you on boris johnson and the new slow this morning on these sanctions, on the outrage over these atrocities. i'm sort of surprised how the united kingdom has been silent.

jonathan: in what way? tom: i haven't seen the headlines coming out. what we have seen on the bloomberg this morning is a substantial stream of headlines. where is the united kingdom? jonathan: i think the focus is very much on the europeans given their dependence on russian gas. the likes of the europeans and their dependence on russian gas does not compare to the united kingdom. it is why the focus is on them at the moment, and that has funded the war effort over the last six weeks. until the europeans do something about it, they will continue to fund the war effort. tom: that of course comes back to gold. lisa: there were headlines talking about how the united kingdom is exploring fracking, exploring other avenues of energy. so they are kind of coming out with what they can, but to jon's point, this is not an issue with the united kingdom. it is germany. tom: to me, i'm not getting much love off the data screen, but i do note euro swissie, strong swiss.

a bit of a surprise, not record strong swiss, but there it is as haven has come back. jonathan: we are down 0.1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, 0.1% lower also. kind of the theme of the session so far, steeper curve, yields up a whole lot more at the long end. new york crude just short of $104. the aussie really outperforming as the governor of the rba takes a baby step towards perhaps an interest rate hike in the not-too-distant future. tom: into the second quarter, what to do after -8% and bond price, after challenges for the equity market? sarah hunt joins, portfolio manager with alpine woods, with a tangible effort of what you do with a portfolio. what is the single change you have made april 1? sarah: i am not sure we have

made any single changes. if using about the larger economic backdrop with commodities and everything else, you have had years of history where the oecd countries have basically said we are going to try to move some of the stuff like mining and oil production outside of these areas, and now this is coming back to be a real problem when you start to have geopolitical problems like we are seeing right now with russia and ukraine, which is just horrible, and country trying to figure out what do i do now that i have outsourced all of my energy production to other places. we had already been moving in the direction of realizing that the fed was raising rates and get into more stable things in the portfolio, higher cash flows , better things of that nature. it is looking at how we take advantage of what we think is coming in the future, and unfortunately, i do not see energy prices coming down that quickly. i think that is going to be a real problem globally, and a problem ultimately for equities as well. jonathan: let's talk about where that problem is concentrated. can you be more specific? sarah: we added some energy

towards the beginning of the year because it was clear that even before the russia-ukraine situation, the fact that there has been a pullback in investment in the hydrocarbon space because people are looking for newer ways to produce energy has meant that you have seen underinvestment, and as prices were starting to go up, it was starting to look like that was something that could continue, and that the russia-ukraine situation exacerbated that. there's also places where, on the technology side, you saw some stocks come down quite dramatically in the last couple of months. so we look at some of the franchises like adobe that we did not have representation in, and we put some money to work there as well. jonathan: what do you make of the homebuilders year to date? we talk about the economic data and america. we are told it is great. but the forward look giving rising rates, the homebuilders have been hammered. sarah: similar to some of the technology sticks get -- the technology stocks getting hit early in the year, i think part

of the problem is that that playbook says when ratings go up, houses go down. there's so much demand, especially on the lower end, and the unintended consequences of the financial crisis has also taken the ability for people to buy those civil family homes out of the market, so i think the demand is there. the question is going to be what happens with pricing materials, labor. all of those costs are going higher. lisa: what is the head right now if there's a feeling that we are headed in who a slowdown? is it certain u.s. equities? sarah: i think we go back to the fact that once again, the u.s. equity market tends to be the strongest when things are weakest locally. i think the u.s. economy is not seeing the problems you are seeing in some of the emerging markets. you do have debt issues in the united states, but it is not going to be as bad as dollar-denominated debt coming and other places. so i think equity markets are a decent place to hedge. it is just a challenge when you

look at the rest of the globe. lisa: what are you doing with cash right now, hoarding it or actually deploying it? sarah: i am a believer that cash does have a place in portfolio management. we are higher on our cash positions than we have been, just because we think there's more volatility. if you want to take advantage of that volatility, you would like to have some cash sitting around because we have seen some drops that happen very quickly and then rebound very quickly. it is very difficult to try to sell something that is down to buy something else that is down. we have some cash on portfolios right now, and probably a little higher than normal. tom: a lot of good studies on how out of vogue equities are. what is the level of unlovedness of equities right now, and what do you do with that knowledge? sam: it is a relative -- sarah: it is a relative game because

equity participation does not go across the board. a lot of people do not participate in the stock market, and i think that fixed income, which has come down so much, is starting to get more of a bid because rates have gone up or get the concern is that the fed is going to keep hiking, that makes the bond market seem as volatile as the stock market. what has happened over the last six months, and that is coming out of covid, you see some growth in the equity market even if it is not going to be the stellar growth of the last couple of years. i think you've at least got some ways to participate in companies that can grow, and i can bet is going to end up being important, especially given the backdrop in fixed income. jonathan: sarah hunt of alpine woods, thank you. i just got a message from a bloomberg subscriber. "as you know, i call jay powell wrong way powell, and i have no simply for the fed. i have been telling brokers that

the surprise trade of 2022 may be long treasuries, not for the coupon, but for the capital gains." i thought it was quite interesting, the trade at the end there. tom: if you get yield stability and even a yield move, that is where you will get total return. that is a minority opinion. jonathan: if we are threatened with a significant growth slowdown, which some people are very worried about. lisa: as we heard from kathy jones and frances donald, both of them saying that. they are about to start buying if we get a little bit higher on the 10 year. jonathan: you touched on this earlier. jens stoltenberg, the nato secretary-general, saying nato supporting war crime probes in ukraine. that one has been building in a bigger way over the weekend. tom: absolutely, but the war crime concept is a timeline. it takes a long time, and there is a process. i hear a lot of people screaming about these atrocities and the alleged comments coming out of

moscow, saying what are we going to do now. that is what mr. zelenskyy clearly is pushing. jonathan: and reframing the map as well in many ways. nato expecting a russian push in the east end to the south of ukraine. that is different to we we were -- to where we were maybe a month ago. tom: way different. i have been talking the black sea from day one. that is all russia cares about is the lexie. jonathan: looking -- the black sea. jonathan: looking forward to continuing this conversation with andrew weiss. that is just around the corner. futures -0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down 0.2% as well. higher to 2.4 7% on the 10 year yield. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika

gupta. bloomberg has learned the eu will propose a mandatory phaseout of russia's coal imports, a direct response to reports that russian troops committed apparent war crimes in ukraine. the european commission is also expecting to propose banning most russian trucks and ships from entering the bloc. the u.s. treasury is increasing pressure on moscow to find alternative ways to pay bond investors. authorities have halted dollar debt payments from russian government accounts at u.s. banks. russia now has three options. drain dollar reserves it holds, spending new revenue, or going into default. the u.s. senate has set ketanji brown jackson on the path for confirmation. jackson's confirmation is all but certain now. three republicans say they will vote in favor. the black boxes from that china

boeing crash have now been sent over to the u.s. did you flight recorders have become central to solving the mystery of why the jet intraday sudden nosedive before crashing. any evidence that clears or input case boeing could be crucial to the company's future in china. pressures on the u.s. supply chain have risen to a record. logistics manager index rose for a third straight month in march. it found wendling warehouse space -- found dwindling warehouse space and companies trying to figure out if they overbought. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the russians obviously miscalculated the extent of ukraine's resistance which has been heroic. jonathan: john bolton, the former u.s. national security advisor come on bloomberg in the last 24 hours. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures are -0.2% on the s&p, about an hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. yields higher by eight basis points.

2.4745%. tom: we have prided ourselves on chart number station of this war in ukraine, from general commit the other day, and yesterday john bolton, and thank you for the comments. always informative and controversial. we continue that discussion today. we do so around the carnegie endowment for international peace. this was formed out of andrew carnegie's outrage of world war i. he died within a year of the end of that war. andrew weiss joins us this morning, vice president at carnegie endowment for international peace. i want to talk about autocracy. from the past, it is hitler's, it is stalin. putin is mentioned. we have a massive win in hungary with or bond as well. how do we end these outcomes of autocracy as we see in ukraine?

andrew: great to be here with you, tom. i am always skeptical that the united states has within its power the ability to shift the political direction of russia. as long as what president putin is doing in ukraine is horrible and the world must level whatever tools it has to try to slow down russia's war in ukraine, we need to be realistic that regime change in russia is something that has eluded western policymakers, and everyday vladimir putin what's up when he comes into work, he's mostly concerned about the safety and survival of his regime. he's prepared to escalate and do things to protect himself against that threat. that is what has been animating him throughout the last two decades. tom: do the various peoples of russia find out what is going

on? will they give him support or walk away from mr. putin? andrew: we need to be careful about what russians are willing and are not willing to accept. russians are living in an information vacuum, and for the most part they are doing that by choice. they don't believe their country is responsible for atrocities or war crimes in the ukraine. i'm not sure they are prepared to take action to deal with the problem of living in a country ruled by vladimir putin. the instruments of re-task -- of repression that wouldn't have built up are intimidating. they are prepared to use violence and other measures to prevent political dissent from

creating questions on how the country is ruled. you see that level of fear among average people as well as the elite. for the west to be banking on either a split within the elite or bottom up pressure on the regime to take care of our putin problem, i think it is really unrealistic. the way we are going to do with our putin problem is action by western leaders. lisa: where does china fit into this, given that over the weekend and yesterday, the new york times put out an article talking about propaganda that china has made that actually painted vladimir putin in a very nice light for some of the policy members? andrew: a lot of what china is providing now is moral support any propaganda sphere, as far as supporting russia's lies about possible biological weapons. but when it comes to the ways russia needs help right now, the

main support china is providing is by providing the bid on russian oil and gas resources, which at the moment, china buys as much as it once from russia. the longer-term problem is that china could not expect to be backstop and the fiscal authority for its government. as russia comes under increased pressure from western sanctions, it is going to be turning to china out of desperation. it is going to be looking to china to be its savior. i would be very surprised if the technological area that is affected by western export controls. lisa: just to wrap things up, we only have a little bit of time, what do you think the west could do to bring this to an end far more quickly? andrew: i hit the west is going to keep ratcheting up sanctions.

the problem is there's not a ton of headroom left, sort of a full-scale embargo on the russian economy. so if the west is prepared to cut off all imports of russian oil and gas, which i think germany is not counting at this point, i think the most likely outcome is that this simply drags on, and over time is likely to morph into something simmler to the balkans war of the 1990's. jonathan: andrew weiss of the carnegie endowment. what a difficult time. it has got harder, not easier, over the last weeks and months. tom: these atrocities are a major shift, and before this, in our lack of news, it was about nato. it was about diplomacy. it was flying around, and that has just vaporized in the last

five or six days. jonathan: something you said at the start of the invasion, the social media has changed the way we absorb war, how we witness it. that ramps up the pressure on the politicians to do more. can the europeans get away with just offering a proposal on phasing out russian coal? tom: i think the reporting is the proposal has to go further. i would do this overlay. the second chechen war was grim. twitter started a few years before it, but can you imagine the russian wars in georgia or chechnya with the kind of social media today? despite an approach of showing immediate intelligence is one of the original point of this moment. jonathan: and something he has

been congratulated for along the way, before the invasion and through the invasion as well. tom porcelli is going to join us of rbc capital markets in about five minutes. he has some doubts the fed can keep going at a 50 basis point clip through the summer and beyond. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: -- jonathan: here is a move for you. twitter in the premarket is higher off the back of this headline. twitter to appoint elon musk to the board of directors. twitter saying there's an agreement with musk to not own more than 14.9% of the company. of course, he has taken a so-called passive 9.2% stake. 24 hours later, there's nothing passive about it. twitter saying musk's term to expire at the 2024 annual meeting. i say this is the beginning, not the end. tom: on the twitter assent and they were above $60 a share,, from 30 something to 40 something to 52 issue right now,

that is how far we are from the average of the good old days of twitter. jonathan: this is a man who adds a ton of value to everything he touches, whether it is tesla, dogecoin, or in this case, twitter as well. is this going to be any different? tom: the debate this morning, i am not up to speed on the fancy techie stuff of this, is an edit button. when i go out and trash some tots, i can go back in and edit the tweet later. jonathan: i think if we lead with that, we are being disingenuous. this is going to be about freedom of speech. elon musk's interpretation of freedom of speech versus, say, what is going on internally at twitter. tom: there's a push to bring back donald trump. jonathan: i think he might do. i would not try to get into the business of working out what he thinks. lisa: i think the edit button is part of the conversation.

that is part of crowdsourcing news standards. these are some of the discussions you have in the newsroom. do you edit a story, do you correct it? all of these things are basically being crowd sourced and he's been a very vocal voice. jonathan: let's see who the republicans are happy with and washington, d.c. i think it is the beginning of something bigger, and the edit button, that is a media distraction. tom: you've got to see who comes in here. when you look at the function, mr. musk clearly at the top of the pile of who owns twitter. right now at the top of the pile of wage analysis is tom porcelli, chief u.s. economist at rbc capital markets. it is percolating that wage growth, maybe it is subsiding. what is the take on your meat and potatoes wage growth?

tom p: good morning to you all. it is good to be with you. it has been interesting. if you look at the paper report that just past, it is pretty interesting. it looks like average hourly earnings are starting to slow. nevertheless, i think directionally it is where we expect it is going to go. the idea that growth is going to slow, i don't think that is debatable. i think where it is debatable is the degree to which it slows, but if the economy slows down from 8% consumption last year, we are going to slow down this year, probably between 2% and 3%. this will probably take a lot of heat off of the wage dynamics, so by the end of the year i think we are in a different spot. in terms of total compensation, you are probably looking at 5% or 6% total, which compares to about 8% total comp last year. in real terms, you are

meaningfully lower than that which probably 1% to 2%. there's a lot less oomph from a wage perspective. tom k: i channeled my inner porcelli a couple of days ago ended the wages and benefits adjusted for inflation, and the wage decline we are living has been much longer than the one a number of years ago. what is the duration wage growth that matters? tom p: you are seeing it show up in the confidence numbers. we were talking about this a month ago. the thing about confidence numbers and why they were falling, it was not this idea that they were worried about economic growth or recession. today might be different. but they were worried because of

inflation. you saw it show up in the confidence data in a pretty meaningful way. i think that is one of the most important points about what is happening from a confidence perspective. higher inflation is eroding confidence. that has been true now for many months. jonathan: i want to come back to you in just a moment and pick back up on the twitter story because the twitter ceo is tweeting, "i am excited to share that we are appointing elon musk to our board. it became clear to us that he would bring great value to our board. i will go on to say he's both an impassioned believer and critic of the service, which is what we need to make us stronger in the long term. welcome elon." there we go. tom k: it is something the three of us live on every single day, providing us different kinds of value. this twitter debate goes to the

new technology that is part of the fabric of labor america. what is the technology stream going to be like in the next two or three years? is it labor's friend or foe? tom p: i think this is a really interesting conversation point. i will try to keep my response brief here. we have been writing about this, and we wrote about it in our year ahead. i think it is one of the interesting things to come out over the next year or two, the idea that companies are going to really engage in technological advances that can boost productivity. one of the things that really forced that idea, you can go back as far as the trade war that forced companies to rethink from a productivity perspective, fast forward to covid and the idea that companies were having a really hard time finding

workers, wage workers were being bid up. this is the entire dynamic dating back at least a few years. i think this will be a fascinating thing to watch. i think capex will have a couple of good years on the back of this dynamic alone, were companies are trying to ease back on some of the margin pressure they have been experiencing. they want to scale back a lot of the wage pressures that are in place, and i don't think they want to find them selves in position to basically have to pound the table to find labor. there's a confluence of factors over the years forcing us down this path. just to be clear, it is happening already. jonathan: got to leave it there, unfortunately. thanks for your time on that breaking news. it is easy for every fed official to talk tough on inflation with the labor market is humming. that could change later this year. that could break the group think. let's get back to that top story. twitter and the premarket with a little bit of a pop off the back of the news from twitter that

elon musk will get a seat on the board of directors. that news out moment ago. tom k: what do the others do? how does meta, instagram, how do they respond to that? how do somebody as enormous as microsoft or apple respond to this? this is not just about twitter. jonathan: let's start with objectives and go back to a tweet from elon musk when he said this. given the defective public square, it -- is that the conversation that is going to take place on the board of directors now within the company? what can be done? what will they do? lisa: how transparent can they be about who and who is not allowed to be on twitter? we talk about former president trump, other republic and lawmakers in particular. at what point have we already been having that debate?

at what point does he bring the swing vote in allowing more free speech versus the argument on instigating some sort of violence or types of misinformation? these are the arguments on the other side. i'm really not weighing in. i do think the idea of free speech is front and center and this highlights it in a much more poignant way. tom k: the 10 year out to 2024, what is the dorsey influence here? this is elon musk versus jack dorsey. jonathan: dorsey has taken a backseat on all of this, hasn't he? the other thing i would be think about from a stocks perspective, does this become a stock that is based on fundamentals anymore or based on story? the reason is we've got a note from jeffries on twitter that makes this point, that investors will be disease substantial progress towards twitter's 2023 revenue and daily user targets given that the stock is trading at more than a 100% premium to facebook and meta platforms.

tom: it is about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals are not there. i don't get the revenue platform. i need our great team at bloomberg intelligence and others to describe for me what the revenue platform is. tom: -- jonathan: can you describe the rationale behind this move yet? tom: tesla 101. it is elon. maybe jack dorsey ought to go up in space. lisa: can you explain to me the move in dogecoin when elon musk was talking about it? what does fundamentals actually mean? some people are speculating with the edit button, you could potential he charge people a premium that also includes an edit button. basically, the more viewers you have, the more you can play with different revenue streams. jonathan: and the engagement of the existing user base something they want. i'm not totally dismissing the edit button story. i'm just saying he's been pretty clear that it is about something else. lisa: oflisa: course. i am just saying something about

crowdsourcing, having the argument about free speech that a lot of news organization is had in boardrooms quietly, and now we are having a very publicly. jonathan: if he can add value to this company that he had added to tesla, then we've got quite a story i had of us. twitter up a little more than 5% in the premarket. tom: headlines quickly, you, von der leyen -- e.u., von der leyen. jonathan: need to praise rusher on russia. what kind of import ban from russia? tom: that's all i've got. but it is moving. i want to say to people on a tuesday, the story in europe is moving in real time because of those photos. jonathan: russian operated vessels from eu ports. just getting that headline crossing. as we get more headlines, we will bring them to you. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date

with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy will address the united nations security council today, scheduled to begin at 10:00 a.m. new york time. in his nightly video address monday muzzling ski referred to killings of civilians by russian troops and said the death toll may be higher. depending on will be sending ukraine news switchblade drones armed with tank busting warheads in addition to less powerful versions of the unmanned aircraft. the weapons are part of a $300 million package announced last week by the defense department. a change at the top of dr pepper. the soft drink company's president will be the new ceo, who has agreed to stay on for two years. curry dr pepper -- curate dr pepper -- keurig dr

pepper's value has grown by more than $200 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we could see some upside and yields, especially as we see ongoing hawkish nest from the

fed. when you look at that 40 year downtrend in the 10 year yield, i'm a believer that we can't yet break out of it. that means we are probably near the peak in this rates move. tom: francis daniil -- frances donald on with us, really spirited today. we are going to digress right now. we are going to have a chart from kriti, and then a very special guest coming up. what do you have today? kriti: we are looking at the dow transports index. some people are looking at the dow transports index as a beacon of what potentially may come. the idea is as you start to see airlines shipping, railroads even, the index has dropped 7.3% in the past few days. since 2010, 120 four times the transport index has fallen over 5% in just one week. 85 of those times, the s&p 500 was higher a month after. in other words, that translates to about two out of three times,

the s&p rallying a month after this big drop in transports. there is your bull case. that is my chart of the day. tom: thank you very much. for those of us on bloomberg radio -- for those of you on bloomberg radio, it is an iconic voice out of detroit. michael barr held the record for attending 10 consecutive toledo mud head games. michael barr, you are iconic in all of this, and you put action from your words, which is to win the tv news bracket. i am in for hundreds place in that. -- in 400th place in that. let's talk about the size of the bedding involved. was this a record year? michael: oh yes. the books were hoping that north carolina was going to win because they were the underdog and they were going to make a lot of money.

at the end of the first half, it was looking like all of the books were like, hooray. then all of a sudden, the wagon wheel selloff, and that was the end of that because then kansas pulled off one of the most historic, if the most historic comeback in the finals. tom: did you go into the locker room at halftime and say let's go boys? michael: i said we've got to go. [laughter] lisa: our entire savings is resting on this. to talk about the bedding aspect of it, how much have people transferred away from brackets, which is the mainstay of a lot of office pools and gone to bedding, which is increasingly legal -- gone to betting, which is increasingly legal? michael: what happens a lot of times is that, in the office, you used to have a bracket. that was the only way you could

get some money playing this. but when online betting came along, you could do parlays, you could just bet on a single game, you could take the odds, you could take the points. it changed the whole landscape of how you approach betting. no longer do you have to go to las vegas anymore just to place a bet. lisa: let's talk about process here. do you just basically come up with a list and a dartboard? what is the process here? michael: i like to work from the inside out. my first choice was kansas to win the whole thing. i started with kansas, and then i started going on down. i had duke and kansas in the finals, and then unfortunately for coach k, he went out with north carolina. by the way, what a brilliant career for coach k. i had a chance to meet the guy one time. just a brilliant gentleman. tom: jon from the united kingdom

emails in and says let's speak the truth, ferro defeats keene. that works out as well. paul sweeney and i lock horns on this every day on bloomberg radio in the 9:00 hour. the new media, the new technology, does march madness get bigger? how does it change? michael: as long as we don't have another covid era, it is going to get bigger and bigger. and give a shout out to the women's ncaa. tom: that's where i want to go, south carolina. is it getting momentum? michael: yes it is. that is growing at well. and all of this i attribute to online gambling because now you can make a bet on the team and you have to research the team if you are going to get anything right to win something. tom: this is great. lisa did an online bet for university of chicago. that really worked out. [laughter] lisa: it is probably our inverse

sports etf's, and chicago is key among those in terms of outcomes. how much has this industry grown? just give us a sense of how much moment on there has been, especially as everyone was at home with their checks. michael: let's go back to win the supreme court said ok, you can have online gambling now. this was before the covid era. so it started growing right then. that was about five something years ago. that is when it started to grow. it was going to take off time then, and all of a sudden we hit the covid era, and there is nothing to bet on except marble races. so then it came back. it was just, the coaches love seeing 70,000 people in the stands watching the game, which means hopefully this is the post-covid era, and we can continue on. tom: our people talk to you about coming on here today, and we welcome all of you on tv and

radio, and one of the people in your entourage said the only way to get barr back is to talk tigers. austin meadows to the tigers. are the detroit tigers destined this year? michael: well, they are going to play .500 ball. they are rebuilding. we are rebuilding every year. i'm a big fan. i wish we had that era where we were in the world series against the giants because we had a pitching staff that was second to none. tom: michael barr, thank you so much. all he does for "bloomberg surveillance" each and every day. i think we've got to regroup with a tape that is a little soggy, but, right that the headlines from europe have taken over this day? lisa: in particular from european commission president ursula von der leyen and saying that the eu is working on more sanctions, including oil imports. this is a big deal, talking

about how they need to raise pressure on russia, talking about the potential for having some sort of import ban. we have already talked about the cold issues -- the coal issue, the vessels issue. the key issue is oil, and she does say they are working on more sanctions having to do with oil imports, so giving some steam to this feeling that coal was the beginning to some of the harrier areas. tom: it will be interesting to see. i looked at amsterdam, rotterdam coal, up about 400% from the quiet of long ago. that will be important to see. futures -11, dow futures for jon ferro, -79. the vix with an 18 close yesterday, comes back a little bit to 19.2 p6 -- 19.26. stronger swiss franc, a bit of a surprise. a real interesting dynamic with euro-swiss.

that is something for global wall street to watch. esther george will join in the 10:00 hour on "bloomberg markets," a timely interview. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

jonathan: equities are softer this morning. down one third of 1%. the count down to "the open"

starts right now. announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg "the open," with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york we begin with the big issue, pricing in a growth slowdown. >> this is the markets readjusting. >> the inversion of the yield curve. >> pretty strong signal we are facing some kind of significant slowdown. >> when the current gets inverted. >> the economy is dried today but it may not be in the future. >> i am very impressed and quite honestly surprised at how resilient equities have been. >> the equity market is balancing, yes there is greater risk of recession. >> one other thing. >> the possibility things continue on for