market does not fink inflation will roll back. >> it's all about duty, that is what is driving things. >> they will go for a soft landing but their chances of pulling off our low. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up .3%. tk getting ready for monster balance she reduction. tom: there is the statistic. is this a choreographed ballet or what? do you think the comments are orchestrated directly with chairman powell, yes. jonathan: bank of america says 350 point -- 50 basis point hikes in a row. the fed is to 350 just like

that. tom: i would call that a middle tendency versus what citigroup is saying. we can parse the parlor game but that seems to take into account that every step you take has a greater effect. this is the nonlinear nests -- nonlinearness about this. jonathan: foreign ministers meeting in brussels today, a nato meeting, looking forward to catching up with maria tadeo on this, from ukraine's foreign minister who said i have three items on my agenda today, weapons, weapons, weapons. tom: this is in eastern ukraine where there's a real feeling in the zeitgeist. if you're not following that russia is getting ready for a greater war or renewed effort. i would not just mention the ministers in brussels, i would mention the people of france this weekend, sunday, in this election. jordan rochester comes out and reaffirms weak euro, and you get a 105 according to jordan

rochester if le pen comes up with a win. jonathan: i just read the same note. that the victory might lead to eu tensions, a lower euro, higher uncertainty, let's break out risk than it could have been and 2017. lisa: maybe that is the silver lining, doesn't is exactly give people a vote of conference. my big question into the meeting is how much they try to support the euro, how much they talk about giving some sort of boost versus combating inflation and how much they're worried about the economic trajectory in light of tightening sanctions. jonathan: did you see what mario draghi had to say? lisa: yes. jonathan: what do you want, peace or air conditioning this summer? lisa: hold on the second, yes he is refreshing on one hand saying he is for the potential embargo or bidding of russia -- russian oil and gas as long as everyone else is on board and no one else is on board so it is pretty easy to say i am on board with that.

jonathan: the one country not on board is the one everyone wants to see come on board in germany is not boarding any time soon. on the nasdaq 100, up .5%. yields in and the bond market now by couple basis points. things calm down a little bit and we really liked data this week, a little later this morning jobless claims and the state is set -- stage is set. tom: i can make jokes about it but this is really serious. we are beginning to see the micro effect in everyone's lives. and hearing. i read the minutes last night. [laughter] in england, do they have the cliff notes, do you have little yellow and black books that got you through college? jonathan: i think they use to. college has changed from my day and yours. tom: miss out -- michelle smith at the fed came out with notes. jonathan: it's a great start to

this program. [laughter] tom: the color is yellow on radio. i have a yellow and black cup. lisa: i can't save you because at 7:30 a.m. i would have -- we would have gotten what i called the minutes. coming into this i was told i cannot call them that, it is the account because jon said we cannot call the meeting minutes. jonathan: you can call them what you want. tom has got -- tom and i has gotten into trouble. lisa: we saw brief positive territory and now down .25%. how much you get a sense of going forward, the ecb ready to move to support the euro and i talk about that with the euro nearest the lowest levels back in 2020. is this a concerning point or is

this a good thing potentially increasing exports and economic activity? today we get a slew of fed speak because it is another day in the week that includes the fed president at 9:00 a.m., the chicago fed president, and how much do they support the ceiling if they will reduce the balance sheet to this year. it seems like a lot. i don't know if we can accurately price this because no one knows what the ramifications will be. today we see the yuan general's meeting which possibly is going to suspend russia and the human rights council and talk about war crimes and how much does that change the question in terms of how much the penalties will be and nato foreign ministers continuing their meeting in brussels. is it oil and gas, further sanctions? what are the next steps at a time where people are concerned about the humanitarian aspects of the conflict. jonathan: a busy morning ahead. let's get the morning started with our first guest. walk me through the update.

you got bullish at 4200 on the s&p. we have gone up what, 200 point since then? where are you now? >> good morning. we had the small contrarian bullish view down in the lows and our call was we thought short-term we could see the market head into the 4600 range. we thought the street got too cautious around the u.s. when we see this picture of relatively resilience. we can see a range from market in the short-term and it'll really be earnings season next week that will be the key catalyst and set the direction for the market to the balance of the moment. tom: where are people positioned right now? what is this tree but i can go against? >> we think the positioning from the institutional picture looks incredibly clean. on thing we have seen at the start of the year is a pickup in the demand for hedges. looking index put volume, it has been running in q1 around 30% higher than last year.

it has been a pickup in hedging activity. we have also seen institutions take delta off of the table. we track the positioning in s&p futures and we have seen billions of dollars of outflows from asset managers and hedge funds. one of the key themes we have been talking about is how clean positioning is as we enter into this season. lisa: do you think stocks in the united states have price in potentially reducing the u.s. balance sheet of the federal reserve by $1.1 trillion? greg: i think as you alluded to earlier, it is difficult to accurately reflect what is going to happen when we have qt in this balance sheet reduced. this year, we came in with much more dovish expectations priced into the fixed income market. we have seen massive moves in rates and that has been a headwind. the thing that really affects equities is when we get a hawkish message, not necessarily

when we deliver something we now expect. i spoke to the head of u.s. rates strategy yesterday and he described to me the path of the fed is almost priced to perfection by the rates market. so we have hikes priced at every meeting, a couple 50 basis point hikes. the market knows that qt is coming. i would argue perhaps there is last hawkish surprise now then at the start. jonathan: can you walk me through how the equity market is absolving things so far? i see weakness in the banks are so far much of this year. what you make of that? greg: i think some of the price action and rotation between sectors has been incredibly interesting. when we look at the correlation of equity sectors to rates, you can see one of the sectors that should do well in terms of rising rate environment is the financials. one of the sectors that should do poorly in a rising rate environment is utilities. utilities are on a tear. clearly there is something going on away from the rotation driven by rates.

really i think it is a defensive bias and the fact people are concerned about the economic outlook and there are more people i speak to who are bearish and worried about the idea of a 2023 recession and has been for a long time. under the surface on the equities, we have this rotation out of risks into defenses. you can even see that in the technology sector, something like the semiconductors, a really bellwether from tack and semis are relatively lows relative to the broader tech sector. jonathan: are you willing to buy that wingness? what is the signal to get you to buy? greg: it has to be earnings season. looking at stocks are on earnings, when you see analysts shift their forecast, it tends to drive stocks. we been in a macro environment with ukraine and the message from the fed. if you look at the stocks that

have had the largest forecast upgrades, those have been the stocks that have outperformed. it has outperformed every major index here today. the question to me is what type of message what we get earnings over the next couple weeks. our corporate's going to be worried about margins? are we going to get a more cautious tone about outlook or are we going to hear corporate's art actually still resilient and we still have strong consumer and potentially a longer-term cycle and there are reasons from koerber earnings to be a little more constructive. jonathan: great to catch up. greg boutle there. on the defensive rotation we start to witness an equity market, particularly in the united states. tom: look, a lot of people have been wrong. we have four standard deviations, minus two through the center, to plus two on equity markets. i do not have any opinion on this other than the bears have been confounded with their certitude that this is a bull rally in a long-term bear

market. that is the belief out there. it needs to be proven out again. earnings matter. we will know a lot more in a week. jonathan: "one day the u.s. expansion will and but right now economic fundamentals in the market -- by manufacturers and earnings growth remain robust." tom: raymond james was adamant yesterday that they do not see a slowdown being outside of new york city, being in the south. jonathan: lori will join us from state street. looking for to these conversations. with futures up .3% on the nasdaq 100 up .5%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. ukraine's foreign minister says his agenda is simple, he wants to give nato -- have nato to

give his country weapons, weapons, and weapons. he met with the nato secretary-general in brussels for meeting with the alliance's foreign ministers. ukraine has been pushing for more air defenses and antitank weapons. in ukraine's port, the mayor says russian attacks have killed more than 5000 civilians. he also says more than 90% of the city's infrastructure has been employed. if russia captures mary pull -- maripul, -- fed officials have laid out a roadmap for reducing the assets they bought during the pandemic. plaintiffs treat their balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year according to the minutes of their meeting in march. officials also thought they should arrange rates by more than .5% but they held off because of uncertainty by the war in ukraine.

nancy pelosi reportedly will visit taiwan as a show support. according to media reports, she will arrive in taipei sunday. the invasion of ukraine raised concerns china may follow through on his threat to take control of taiwan. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway has taken a stake in hp valued at more than $4.2 billion. that has shares surging but he has traditionally stayed away from some technology investments but has moved into that tech trend in recent years. at the end of 2021, berkshire stake in apple is worth more than $161 million. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: and one year our sanctions are likely to wipe out the last 15 years of russia's economic gains. because we cut russia off from importing technologies like semiconductors and encryption security and critical components of quantum technology, that they need to compete in the 21st century, we will stifle russia's ability and its economy for grow two -- grow for years to come. jonathan: good morning. futures on the s&p and nasdaq bouncing a little bit back on the s&p 500. we are higher by .3% on the

nasdaq 100, up .5% from the eu. just in reporting on how sanchez are going, in that debate,, hitting a snag. they're aiming to reach an agreement on this today but that is the current snag. over what time period and other details too? tom: we are learning new things each and every day away from the horror of this, the immediacy of ukraine. jack fitzpatrick in washington, always wonderful, maria tadeo, in brussels with us as well. maria, i am learning about coal, learning about a wonderful bloomberg article on how the nuclear stuff from russia as to the nuclear plants along eastern europe help them. learning new stuff every day. is the climate debate disappeared in brussels? is there -- has there been a regime shift in terms of energy in brussels? maria: it is changing.

i would point to the italian prime minister who said yesterday at this point we should not be naive. every war carries a cost and we have to ask ourselves, do we have to have a people summer where you turn on the ac at the max and have a nice time of the beach or will you help ukraine to put an end to this war. there will be a price tag that comes with this. debate is the huge pressure we see, i would argue the biggest story today, the warning from the nato secretary-general saying russia is prepared for a full attack in the east of ukraine, it will dominate dundas and the clock is ticking for vladimir putin just briefly. this parade may 9, the victory, they will have a victory over nazi germany. vladimir putin has to show something. jonathan: maybe may 9 is the target but what we're looking at is the french election you are reporting in budapest a number of days ago, what does the west do about a victorious band.

what is the action you take with hungry in cahoots with moscow? maria: he was unapologetic and blamed what he says is the international left, he blamed george soros and president zelenskyy, -- excuse me, the hungarian government says ukrainians have no interest in putting an end to this war and took aim at brussels. i have covered viktor orban for three years and you have to make a difference between the bravado of language of what he says to his people and what he says in public and what he does in real action. the reality is he needs money that comes from the european union. he needs the funding. and you look at the details as we do with every sanctions package, victor has voted in favor of everything for four times. you have to make a distinction from what he says, that macho line he likes to take and then he what -- then what he does

when the money is at stake. lisa: how do lawmakers parse out the distinction between words and actions when it comes to china, when it comes to india, when it comes to determining who your allies are and frankly who your enemies are when it comes to the conflict with russia? jack: with countries like china and india, the goal seems to be not to expect that you can get them fully on board. they are talking to european allies about sanctions and seeing what they can do unilaterally to the u.s. for sanctions but trying to get them to remain neutral or be a little more neutral, there has been pressure on india lately ahead of military talks with india next week. just yesterday, the house press secretary said it has remained clear to india that any more formal, more significant economic relationship with russia would be a bad thing for india, saying they still dubai energy commodities from russia, they are the biggest buyer of russian weapons.

there is not an expectation you can get china and india to really fully pull away from any relationship with russia. but at least something more like neutrality and avoid them going all in on a relationship with russia. lisa: we heard from the foreign minister of ukraine coming out and saying we need weapons, weapons, weapons. are you hearing that western nations want to give them more weapons if they are worried about the potential for escalation? maria: he spoke to us reporters earlier today and said at this point it is clear the ukrainian army is well-trained and can repel the russians but we need the weapons. the debate and nato, should we still make a difference between defensive weapons and offense of weapons? for the ukrainian foreign minister he said that is the idea, the entire ukraine is defending itself and needs everything. i will bring a big debate on

should you -- should you send the fighter jets and so on. is that an escalation for nato? that is a point of tension. they worry about this going into crescendo but to give you color, today outside of nato, there are ukrainians who are protestant here and they scream and chant to give those fighter jets to ukraine. that is a line we hear repeatedly. of course the ukrainians will continue to push for this until they get it. jonathan: thank you as always. maria tadeo and jack fitzpatrick. lisa: coal is the first step toward energy or it is the last step, it is basically as far as european nations are willing to go before they can get the sort of other source of gas in particular they current get -- currently get from russia. tom: i believe us all yesterday year over sales in russia down 60 some percent. some but he asked me yesterday, how do you measure depression.

that is a loaded academic question but as a general rule, -30% gdp, is that imaginable in russian? i think the answer is yeah, it is in the frame of where we can go. are we moving russia with coal and others into depression? jonathan: the ruble is probably not a good gauge of how the country is doing. tom: strongly agree. jonathan: the problems they will have in the labor markets given how many companies put out of the country. tom: traded abroad, i'm looking at the 2042 russian peace and it trades weaker this morning. it is not through unpriced new lows but it is getting there and the yield is 20 something percent. that is maybe a more accurate indicator of market belief than what you see in the currency. jonathan: i'm looking at twitter in the premarket, up and twitter's board meeting will be

-- this is a legit elon musk tweet this morning. tom: some people say where is the sec on this. i'm not up to this. jonathan: i'm not sure they are against him smoking a blind. tom: what is a blonde -- blunt? ♪

jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning on tv and radio, your equity market picture looks like this. positive across the board. on the s&p 500, a .3%. he bounced back on the nasdaq by .4 5 -- 5.5%. some real weakness in the nasdaq and you have to say the rotation bids new youth -- rotation beneath the surface has become -- look at the bond market and look at twos, 2021 we closed at 72 basis points on a two-year. right now to 42.50. clearly we have added a lot of weight to the front end of the curve. we look at the big moves from the federal reserve and bank of america looking for 350 basis point moves from the federal

-- this is becoming consensus and we can sit on this for a moment, twos and tens, negative nine basis points monday morning in the open and this kicks in, positive 13 basis points. you see the flattening trend over the last year or so. you have been asking the right question repeatedly, higher yields at the long and/or lower yields at the long and and there is still debate about that -- long end and there i still a debate about that. lisa: people say perhaps in a short run at leads to a widening of the yield curve and is steepening of the longer-term yields. and longer-term as the ramifications come into effect and you get the slowdown, people will pile back into bonds. it is hard to wrap your head around. this is uncharted territory. jonathan: what do you make of the pace from the fed here? lisa: it is dramatically faster, however the balance sheet is dramatically larger and

inflation is dramatically faster as well. people are looking at this that it is in the range people are talking about. as the market accurately pricing in $1.1 trillion of balance sheet reduction a year, they pace the fed is setting up for? jonathan: i think we are trying to work out how to price it. thank you. when you hollow it out and fill it with -- that is a blunt. tom: oh, that is a blunt. [laughter] jonathan: that's what people tuning fork, a bit of a bond market and a bit of a -- lisa: blunt. [laughter] tom: our next guest joins us now. we can go to physics of cambridge and look at 14 topics. i want to look at the one true thing here we are focused on is your ecb. you have provided huge research over the last decade on ecb. what does lagarde do, is her

degrees of freedom so shrunk down that she has limited choice april 14? >> at this stage, they will be doing little. they are setting up for normalization coming further in the year. i think what gets interesting is what they do further out. the margin is pricing hikes and it is clear that's the direction of travel but question is how far. do we just get to zero stocks, do we go any further than that? unlike the u.s. where you have strong domestic demand, and europe, it is a bit of more about inflation without much strengthen the economy. tom: how do you respond to the certitude they will raise rates, begin to raise rates or get out front of raising rates to keep up with the fed? elsa: they're not going to keep up with the fed and i think that is what is going to give increasing support as the year goes on. of course for euro-dollar, it is still around 107 and quite

comfortable with that but if i had to look at where the risks lie around nine, unless the fed changes course or something happens to derail the u.s. tightening and it may well happen later in the year, if things turn out as markets price at the moment, we will have a yield advantage by the end of the year. that in itself will be very meaningful for the current state. lisa: what's the ramification for the dollar of this balance sheet reduction we are coming up with question marks? elsa: i think it's a little more indirect than most people might think. all of our research has found there is no one-for-one link between the size of the central bank balance sheet and domestic currency. a lot of it depends on the status of the currency, haven proxy. in the case of the dollar at the moment, it is trading at more of a haven. you tend to find if equities selloff, the dollar find a boost. to the extent the market like you said earlier is not

necessarily priced for reduction in balance sheet per year, you may well see that weighing on equities and boosting the dollar. lisa: you talk about the global picture for the currency and i have to go to a philosophical point, especially as you see china start to pay call from russia in u.n. and you see this concern especially as you get janet yellen yesterday saying they could impose sanctions similar to what they did on russia to china should they invade taiwan. how much are you looking at the diminishing of the dollar's place as a result of what some people say the westernization of its cloud on the global financial system? elsa: right. a lot of what we have seen with russia in some ways has been unprecedented. i think the key to ask is what is going to take it there. we had a conversation about this exact topic talking about

depolarization and there are two big obstacles for china. one is the fact that they do not allow access to their capital markets and the second is liquidity and ability to hedge exposure via the u.s. dollar or via dollar funding markets. i think until you get a broad shift on both topics, you are not really going to see a proper challenge. what will happen over the next decade or 15 years if investors do not think on that horizon? tom: the fact here is on all these currencies, there's massive uncertainty. can you make a big bet on dollar or a big figure bet on dxy or the bloomberg dollar index? is that even feasible now? elsa: i've gotta say we have had a lot of success with short-term tactical trades. it has paid off a lot better than trying to find a position for the longer-term trends. at the moment, i think we have been watching euro-dollar bounce

around in that range. we have the french election coming up attracting more interest in the tension. my bid is for a crime lower but there's a lot of risk around that. tom: i look at the pacific rim with lisa mentioning china and the challenges there as well. is there a surprise opportunity in the pacific rim here, given the covid story in china, given sort of a pacific rim gloom outlook? where is that opportunity? elsa: it's an interesting question. i see quite a lot of optimism baked into parts of the pacific rim. if you look at the australian dollar or new zealand dollar, we model it based on the fundamental drivers to your yields, commodity prices, and so on. for the last three months, there has been residuals but a lot of optimism getting baked in to the topside. i do think as the year goes on, if the fed is going to deliver as much as markets expect it,

then the yield advantage for the u.s. is not just for the pacific rim but global currencies. lisa: before we let you go, you were talking about conversations with clients. what are the biggest concerns for clients right now? what is their biggest worry that they present to you? elsa: i think there are number of questions on topics on people's minds. clearly you are looking at the situation in ukraine and everybody is looking at the fact that it could worsen materially at very short notice. it is a political decision expected on the sanctions imposed and that political pressure to change. beyond that, i think people are a little perplexed, looking at the relative strength of equity markets for example and in their heads trying to figure out where that is coming from. granted i'm talking to macro investors, they are probably a lot more comparable with that. there's a lot of anticipation or weakness further down the line. jonathan: elsa lignos, thank

you. onto next week on the 12, we get cpi, then on the 13th, j.p. morgan earnings and on 14th, the ecb. tom: i strongly agree with you that we are already shoved into next week. you know i'm death on friday because we work through the weekend but this thursday, there are claims out here and two hours as a friday feel to it just because we wait for next week. jonathan: surveyed a moving target but at the moment, most people are looking for a number north of 8% on cpi in america. lisa: i will be a little controversial. it's a stunning number and i do not think it will matter. i think what will matter is april 13 when jp morgan reports the earnings. i think that will be so much more important terms of what the fed will do if they beat estimates, if they show those profit margins continuing to grow, what then happens to the federal reserve? do they take a page out of bill

dudley? jonathan: i don't know if it will change anything given we expect a 50 basis point move in may. tom: is that a hawkish stance? if a 50 feet is assumed, is that a hawkish stance? jonathan: i think that is the consensus and they are not pushing back against it. i think earnings will matter more to the markets. we will take the rate hikes, the balance sheet reduction. if the corporations could give me a decent look on the year ahead. there is concern in the market based on what we have seen with utilities rallying, the homebuilding struggling at even banks not performing with higher interest rates on the horizon. there is a signal that things are getting -- and i go one step further, worry is starting to be introduced in the year ahead. tom: there is micro data that clearly indicates that and yesterday, where maybe the wage growth is slowing. is it finally spring in new york city? jonathan: i hope so.

when the master starts, will you indulge me and allow me to go through the teetimes? tiger woods is 10:34 eastern time. it is the most relaxing sporting event in the world. i can sit and watch that thing for hours, for days, uninterrupted. it is just beautiful there. at of all the things, this does have a page in the book. [laughter] of all the things you want to do to put on our tour for this program, that will be up there. tom: i could see it. i could see you with a green jacket on. can i talk about a hawkish stance? the hawks are out with a vengeance on central park. we are trying to avoid a hawkish stance. that is all there is to it. i guess i'm not going to share it. [laughter] jonathan: why hasn't that worked out? tom: i have no idea. jonathan: where's the punchline?

[laughter] do we have to wait for the punchline? i will wait for the punchline. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. the united nations general assembly is set to vote today whether to suspend russia from the human rights council. the u.s. and others accuse russian forces of carrying out atrocities in ukraine. russia repeatedly deny those allegations. the next economic jolt to russia will probably come in the labor market according to a bluebay survey -- bloomberg survey of analysis that this year is said to be more than double, exceeding 9% for the first time in more than a decade. sanctions but the economy on course for one of the deepest recessions in russia's modern history. in china, the government is acknowledging domestic and global risk to the economy are bigger than previously expected. the cabinet signal they will

step up monetary stimulus. chinese authorities aid repeated promises in recent weeks to stabilize the economy. covid restrictions curtail spending and business activity. in washington, the fbi arrested two men accused of posing as federal agents and giving free apartments and other gifts to secret service agents. one of those secret service agents worked on the first lady's security detail. a four secret service employees have been placed on leave. we may be on the verge of a bidding war for the -- highway group atlanta. it could become the biggest deal this year. there has been a nonbinding bid for the company. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> my agenda is simple, it has three items on it. it is weapons, weapons, and

weapons. we are confident that the best way to help ukraine now is to provide it with all necessary to contain putin and defeated russian army in ukraine. jonathan: that's the ukraine foreign minister. from new york city, good morning, with features positive on the s&p, nasdaq, on the s&p .25% and on the nasdaq 100 bouncing back from a two day loss. today's add-on to a loss of more than 4%. the nasdaq right now we had .5% back on. yields are lower by almost a basis point at 259. write news baked in, now it is time to undertake rates. in a nutshell he said we believe the tech sector is as oversold as we have seen since 2015. that note were dropping moments ago. tom: we have such an important gas but we must address this

later, apple, how the other houses are coming up to the eyes level and you wonder when he jumps over them and with enthusiasm. jonathan: apple is a clear favor, his words are not mine. tom: we will follow that new moment. this is a great honor as we drive forward our conversation on ukraine. maria taddeo is reporting and others are helping. we try to bring in guests that on the high ground. nobody owns it for almost a decade. when you are at berkeley and writing a thesis on the dark side of european integration, you are a decade outright on the dark side of this war. thank you for joining us this morning with the center for european policy analysis. cut to the chase. you nailed this 10 years ago, how dark is this war and what does ukraine have to do about it? >> unfortunately the threat that is russia we now know, we tried

to ignore it and we cannot. in 2014, russia invaded crimea and then dundas. we put sections on russia, obviously sanctions did not change putin's calculus and here we are. this is the most significant, most brutal war we have seen since world war ii. it is a dark moment for europe, absolutely, i dark moment for all of us. tom: i've got john bolton on the right and alina farkas working with obama on the left. both in agreement that we way overestimate the ability to start world war iii. do you agree with them that we were overwrought in our worries about the ghost of 1939? >> it is rare to have someone like bolton and evelyn, who i know as well, to agree on this issue, but it just tells you how at the end of the day, we are so worried about escalating and

worrying about what we would do if we give the ukrainians more weapons or if we give the ukrainians fighter jets, but the truth is, we cannot predict what putin will do. we should be worried more about how do we ensure europe is at peace? how do we ensure the united states is not going to get pulled in with troops and things of that nature into the war? the best way to do that is to give the ukrainians everything they need to be put in an ukraine so we do not have to fight him as nato in poland or the baltic states. unfortunately, if putin does not stop -- is not stopped in ukraine, there's a good chance he will take that as an opportunity to keep going forward and further into europe. lisa: do the same sins work at a time where a lot of the opposition to vladimir putin was in russia -- within russia is squelch where protests are not working if everyone is hauled

off to jail or forced to leave the country? >> economic sanctions historically speaking, especially with russia, have never worked to change the short-term military behavior on the ground. looking back at 2014 when russia invaded crimea, we imposed significant sanctions on russia but it did not change putin's calculus. how do we know that? because he invaded ukraine eight years later. so now we have an incredibly significant round of sanctions that we will impose on russia and we never tried this before. it is affecting the global economy. the russian economy is not like north korea or iran. it is significant. we see the effects of that in oil prices, but sanctions are a long-term tool. in themselves, they will not change what is happening day in, day out on the battlefield. for that we need the military and security assistance and sanctions themselves not change behavior. at the end of the day, the oligarchs are not breaking

ranks. they're staying loyal to mr. putin and i do not think that will change. lisa: that's a really important point, sanctions are not helping in the near term when it comes to the day in and day out of the on the ground military actions. if that is the case, do policymakers realize that? do they recognize that? if so, what are they doing to affect that at a time when they are talking about war crimes? >> absolutely i think there is a recognition sanctions have a way of taking a long time to work because we have never tried this level of economic sanctions with countries as large as russia. we are waiting to see how they will interlock and play out. right now, the strategy is two-pronged, one is to make it hard for russia to stay in the effort financially, force russia potentially to default. this seems to be with the united states is pursuing right now, close all avenues of financing for the russian government so they can no longer pay down on their debts. but they still have a 30 day grace period.

so it is really not a short-term solution. the second prong of the strategy has to be making sure that we are supplying ukrainians with what they need on the ground. together, that should contain russia if we do it rapidly, if we do what it takes, and if we do not pursue a cautious tentative policy where we will do x and won't do y. if we go in full and give the ukrainians what they ask for, we will ramp up sanctions. eventually, how many more debts will that mean and brutal images will we see like we have seen the last couple days? that is really where we are right now, calculating costs. it is painful, quite painful. jonathan: incredibly painful for the people of ukraine. lisa, it is getting increasingly

uncomfortable. the focus still is trying to get a deal on call this morning. lisa: and -- an embargo on call, not an outright ban. and when that will take place. what more will they be willing to do at a time where there are a lot of platitudes we hear from the overall nato group is masking some of the disagreements on the ground? i think about hungary and italy and germany and to the different dueling points and dueling economies, how do they bring this together on something that is harder heading to vladimir putin? jonathan: that is the focus in europe, the folk at -- the focus on equity market. we have used tech stocks positively from these oversold levels, like tiger was putting the master today, the skeptics said a year ago it was impossible yet here we are. tom: it will be interesting to see where they come in down the income statements.

lisa mentioned the surprise of j.p. morgan delivering not so much." revenue." growth but one of the margins -- much revenue growth but one of the margins. come on this morning. dan, parachute in. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ han: this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> inflation is the driver of the feds more hawkish position. >> we do think consideration goes up if the market does not think inflation will rollback. >> it is all about q2. that is what is driving thing. >> the fed has muted tools. >> the chances of pulling it off are very low. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- pulling it off are very low. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures bouncing up back 0.2% on the s&p. tom: a bit defensive over the last week. gloom is front and center. for the gloom crew, this is a must watch 30 minut