>> inflation is the driver of the feds more hawkish position. >> we do think consideration goes up if the market does not think inflation will rollback. >> it is all about q2. that is what is driving thing. >> the fed has muted tools. >> the chances of pulling it off are very low. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- pulling it off are very low. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures bouncing up back 0.2% on the s&p. tom: a bit defensive over the last week. gloom is front and center. for the gloom crew, this is a must watch 30 minutes because we

are going to talk to people that are pushing against all of the gloom that is out there. jonathan: we will catch up with dan ives of wedbush on his big tech call as well. i think earnings season is taking on a new importance when we kick things off next week. tom: we are jumping into next week with the event of the show. scott brown, raymond james, adamant yesterday that it is not as bad of people think. he suggests the glass is half-full. jonathan: next week's cpi in america looking for something north of 8%. then we have the earnings season kicking off in the ecb decision in the mix as well. lisa: it is good news, bad news. i will get raked over the coals for this because optimism is wonderful to have. i will say that right now, earnings are really robust, if margins continue to expand, if companies

continue passing along costs to customers, does the fed try to disrupt the market? two central banks see an even bigger -- do central banks see an even bigger problem? i think this is the tension. how good can things be if the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is markets that a lot of fed officials would like to see tighten a little bit or selloff? jonathan: it is a therapy session for bulls that is probably needed. on the nasdaq 100, up around 0.4 percent. lisa is going to run you through the week ahead, the day ahead and just a moment. yields unchanged on the 10 year. crude, 97 dollars $.56. we are positive today, but back by 1.3%. lisa: what are the remaining inputs for why oil has increased?

seven: 30 am, we will hear from the ecb. we are going to get there monetary policy account, not their meeting minutes from the march 11 meeting. i have been informed it is an account, not the meeting minutes. we have seen two-year yields in germany rise bad about 40 basis points since that march 11 meeting to about zero. how much does the ecb indicate concern about how weak the euro is versus the dollar? that is what i am going to be looking for in the account. today we also get a bunch of fed speak. st. louis fed president james bullard at 9:00 a.m., then raphael bostic, charlie evans. how much do they talk up the effect of the $1.1 trillion yearly reduction in the balance sheet on markets? do we get more of a sense of how they gain that outcome of what they will be looking for on

whether they slow it down or keep it going for longer? the u.n. general assembly's meeting to possibly suspend russia from the human rights council. how much do they start talking about war crimes, and what does nato do with foreign ministers still meeting in brussels? can they simply hammer home that inflation and sanctions are going to eventually work, or do they have to take another step? jonathan: thank you. let's kick off the market conversation with lori heinel, global chief investment officer of state street global advisors. you are more dovish in the outlook than most people who come on this show, and more constructive on the economy as well. can you walk us through it? lori: absolutely. we think that they reopening trade is still with us. certainly in the u.s., consumer balance sheets are quite healthy. we see employment really being strong. other factors like energy, which the u.s. is benefiting from. we have ratcheted down our expectations.

the other side of that equation is the inflation picture is very destabilizing. the comps will start to get harder and harder, so we think that is the fed reacts to the current prince, they may be at a tougher spot in the fall. tom: i want to go to the idea of a collective memory of inflation. so many people listening and watching don't understand what corporations do given inflation. you say we are reopening 10% nominal gdp. how do corporations respond? lori: there are several things they are doing. they are going to try to pass along those costs when it is possible, and we have seen lots of evidence that companies have been able to do exactly that. sometimes it is self increases like changing the size of packaging, for example. the other thing that corporations have not done,

particularly in the service sector, is invested in technology through productivity. there are certain industries, the steel industry is incredibly more productive than it was years ago, where they had to have hundreds of people running those plants, and now they can do it with dozens or hundreds. the service industry is a place we are lightly to see more robust growth in the future as the reopening trade happens and as companies start to invest in the technology to improve that activity. tom: this is too much optimism. i can't take it. [laughter] jonathan: lisa, are you ok? lisa: i am doing just fine. i welcome optimism. i just am concerned about what that means if we are talking about all this resilience, increasing productivity for a federal reserve seeking to get inflation down. is an increase in productivity, and increase in profits, per system with the fed's goals of trying to crimp the demand side?

what other transmission mechanism to they have to counter this kind of inflationary impulse? lori: certainly they are worried about inflation, and we are worried about inflation, too. the question is is it supplied driven or demand driven. we would argue it is a little bit of both. but part of what is creating the acute pressures in this moment is still the supply side of the equation. he saw in some respects the demand shift can taper that inflationary pressure pretty quickly. we saw china, for example, closing down and oil prices dropping quite a lot in subtheme with that. so with inc. it is more about the supply side. we are not exactly raging bulls, but when you look at the landscape, equities look relatively attractive given the landscape we are operating in. lisa: what specific areas do you think are undervalued right now? lori: certainly we are looking at the u.s. because it is more resilient than other parts of the world. coming into this year, we were

much more constructive on europe , but given the russia-ukraine conflict, that is not likely to happen. we like the areas benefiting from the reopening trade, so we like energy, financials, some of the material sector, places that have not actually enjoy to the rally that we saw and the last few years in tech, for example. jonathan: lori heinel of state street global advisors with a much more constructive outlook. thank you, as always. yesterday on bloomberg opinion, bill dudley, the former new york president, wrote this. "it is hard to know how much the u.s. federal reserve will need to do to get inflation under control, but one thing is certain. to be effective it will have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far. we joke about it, but the ultimate point you are making i think is really important and were sitting on for a moment. are you suggesting it has become a lose lose situation for people in this equity market, given what the likes of bill dudley are saying and givien

earnings next week? lisa: lose-lose over the near term. over the long-term, good news is good news when it comes to equity prices, especially given what your other options are. however, if you see companies passing along the costs that they are actually incurring from higher input costs, how much does that give a sense of an embedded inflationary spiral? how much does this give a sense that consumers are willing to accept higher prices, companies can pass that along? that is concerning to a lot of fed officials. they may want to stop that because that gives us insight could become more entrenched in the economy. i am wondering how they are going to read these earnings. do we want to see them show a little bit of weakness in light of the inflation? jonathan: you are making a really strong point, and it sets up next week in a really big way. we will have cpi one day, earnings the next, and learned about a central bank response the day after with the ecb. for that reason, i won't be here next week. [laughter] dan ives of wedbush is going to

be joining us a little later this morning on tech stocks. we view tech stocks very positively from these oversold levels, just like tiger woods playing the masters today. the skeptics a year ago said it was impossible, yet here we are. tom: it is a blistering note. for the showman dan ives with his prodigious security analysis chops, he and others are saying here is the data. seriously, apple, china, the world coming to an end. these people are saying no, it continues. jonathan: never mind china. let's talk about the consumer around the world and the pressure they are under at the moment. are you telling me we are lining up for iphones the rest of this year? you get my point. tom: i learned a long time ago on tech, whether it is adobe, microsoft, ibm and the train wreck they have had in cloud, you just listen to these people, and this morning is a reaffirmation of big tech. jonathan: cloud is one part of

the market that dan ives likes. lisa: when we talk about iphones, how much is this really a discretionary item? how much is this becoming a mainstay as people work more flexibly? i also wonder if this is really representative of the economic cycle, and how much is he really going to talk about that, that basically, is this something more recession proof than other areas because of increasing dependence on cloud and chips? lori: and if they are going to -- jonathan: and if they are going to embrace the subscription model, is it just a luxury? it has become that way more recently. for lower and middle income people, that has become the big deal. we will build on that in just a moment. futures up 0.25 percent on s&p. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika

gupta. ukraine's foreign minister says his agenda is simple. he wants nato to give his country "weapons, weapons, and weapons." he met with nato secretary-general jens stoltenberg in brussels before meeting with the alliance's foreign ministers. ukraine has been pushing for more air defense systems and antitank weapons. in ukraine's port city of mariupol, the mayor says russian attacks have killed more than 5000 civilians. he also says more than 90% of the city's infrastructure has been destroyed. if russia captures mariupol, it would open up a land corridor to the crimean peninsula. moscow foresees that from ukraine -- moscow sees that from you -- moscow seized that from ukraine in 2014. some officials thought they should have raised rates by more than 0.25%, but they held off

because of uncertainty. elon musk is already having a little fun joking about twitters next board meeting. the billionaire shared someone else's post about the time he smoked a blunt filled with tobacco and marijuana on a radio show. between said, "twitter's next board meeting is going to be lit." global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> ukraine is fighting a defensive war. we need both support with weapons, but also to step up sanctions and welcome the fact nato allies are now in the process of stepping up further sections -- further sanctions on russia. jonathan: jens stoltenberg come the nato secretary-general, in brussels this morning. good morning to you all from new york city. futures on the s&p up 0.2 5%. on the nasdaq 100, bouncing back by 0.4%. the last two days have been brutal for the nasdaq, down by

more than 4% over two straight days. the note from dan ives at wedbush got our attention. "great news is baked in -- "rate news is baked in. we believe the tech sector is as oversold as we have seen since 2015." tom: on the masters starting today, how is sir nick treated in your united kingdom? jonathan: very well. why wouldn't he be? in the commentators box, i think he's great. tom: this is going to be fun. insecurities analysis, when you are on a juggernaut that everybody has been wrong on for years, let's go back to 2016. this was quoted in the business media. iphone seven is done, it is toast. iphone seven is not going to move the needle. the fact is since then, and this is when jordan spieth at the masters blew up, apple is up 42% per year since iphone seven

wasn't going to move the needle. dan ives has lived this gloom, and playing off of tiger woods at 10:00 something this morning, dan ives on apple. why is the gloom crew wrong on apple? they are not wrong. it continues to be underestimated. what consumer demand is for iphones, as well as services. that is going to continue to play out this quarter and throughout the year, which is why i believe the risk to apple here, the haters will hate. i still view it as a bright green light to own this stock, as well as tech, especially with all of the negative sentiment out there. tom: does the cell phone were continue? they got lucky last year with verizon, t-mobile, and the rest of them going mental about giving away iphones. is that part of your optimism?

dan: it is part of it. used to have over 20% of an install base for apple that is not upgraded in the last three and a half years. put that together with services, it is north of the $3 trillion market cap. apple is one of those teams where investors will continue to think innovation is in the rearview mirror. demand holding up, extremely robust. iphone 13 doing into 14. that is why the cupertino growth story in my opinion is hitting a renaissance rather than its eighth-inning. jonathan: the most oversold we have been since 2015. does that include apple? you mention apple as your clear favorite, but you would hardly carlin -- hardly call it oversold, would you? dan: where i differ is that some just look at street pe, compare

historical's. i've you would on the sum of the parts. the sum of the parts on apple, which is the only way to view it, i believe -- you look at names like amazon, microsoft, others, it is sum of the parts stories that drive these higher. i believe valuations in tech relative to growth, growth is going to be 3x what it has been the last decade. you can take pull forward covid with work from home names. we are talking about enterprise, digital transformation. if you want to sell those stocks because of a100 50 bit move, that is fine. but to us, that is exactly the opposite. i've had an economist for 10 years in the office next to me.

i just continue to view fundamentals. jonathan: you know what that economist would tell you right now? we face some real consumer headwinds. they have been talking about maybe trimming estimates for a consumer goods company, and ultimately it is still a hardware business we need to talk about here. jp morgan very bullish for stocks still. rice target at $210. they maintain that price target, but they trim their estimates. one thing they highlight in this note i am reading through right now is that they think the higher end smartphones, tablets, and laptops will have a resilience to the slow down, the broader slowdown in consumer spending. do you share that view? dan: i could not agree more. you start seeing it coming out of china on the higher end with what we are seeing in apple. that is why, make it a macro call in apple. it is a cemetery of investors that did not meet that call, and i think the street is

underestimating growth over the next 12 to 18 months. lisa: what has happened in your view on the development will standpoint for apple that increases their worth based on innovation, considering the fact that shares are only 6% below the all-time high? dan:dan: i think a lot of that is the underestimated product cycle. services, that is an $80 billion revenue stream that we think is worth $1.5 trillion. i think the big misnomer on apple is the service is peace that continues to be overlooked. if you look at the stock, it obviously gets sold with broader tech, just like with microsoft going to one q. i believe we sit here six weeks from now, looking at this as the catalyst for tech rather than a negative. i can tell you sentiment is extremely negative institutionally speaking going into 1q.

jonathan: just quickly, who is wearing a brand-new green jacket? dan: i think it is got scheffler. my dark horse is corey connors. jonathan: thank you. i'm looking forward to 10:34 eastern time, tiger woods teeing off. tom: it is going to be a big deal. jonathan: i think it is a wonderful thing. what a turnaround for him. tom: what i am fascinated by, and i am not an expert on this, but what is fascinating to me is tv is still beholden to tiger's showing up. that is fascinating to me. jonathan: you heard dan ives mention scotty scheffler. do you know who scotty is? tom: i do not. jonathan: number one in the world. he's the guy with momentum coming into this. they are names you don't know. you need the names everybody knows to get the broader audience, and that name is always tiger woods. tom: fascinating to me.

i will talk to paul sweeney about it in my other property today. jonathan: 10:34 eastern time, tiger woods. looking forward to it. for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, futurist at the little bit positive. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. on tv and radio, we bounce back on the s&p by about zero point 1%. on the nasdaq, bouncing back by about 0.3%. the last two days, down by more than 4%. there is something really interesting happening in this equity market. i think the banks show that almost perfectly. the kbw bank index is down almost six straight sessions, close to down 9% over that time period. this is all happening even with rates climbing higher. this market is starting to position for a growth slowdown. you see it in the banks, and the homebuilders, and with higher interest rates. what has happened? utilities are starting to look good. this is the defensive theme emerging in this equity market over the last few weeks. tom: i think we have had the

right tack this morning. the media focuses on the day today, the trading and that. the fact is we have had a massive up pop of growthiness. but it is now time to look at earnings and see what the view is forward. jonathan: morgan stanley take the view that the growth headwinds take center stage as we start to work our way through the rest of this year, and for that reason, mike wilson and team over the weekend doubling down on defensive's. this is what is happening in the bond market right now. closing out last year at 73 basis points on twos. let's think about the way we have added to the front end and the expectations for the rest of this year. bank of america, room number when they said seven hikes at all the rest of the meetings from the federal reserve? people said they were crazy, and then the 50 basis point move started to come through. be looking for a 50 move at the next one, another one after that, another one after that, and 25 at each and everyone.

lisa: and other people actually agree. this is close to what the consensus is right now. how much has this been priced in, and how much is there a lag effect that allows stocks to continue rallying before it really starts to have ramifications for the economy? jonathan: fascinating moment, setting the stage for next week. cpi next week in america, looking for something or the vain percent. then we get earnings, jp morgan kicking that off. the ecb conference, which tom watches religiously. let's get something on names with remain -- with romaine. romaine: biggest percentage movement belongs to hp, the company that is still making printers and laptop computers. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway now the largest shareholder, increasing its stake by about 10%. hp q up at about 4% in the

premarket. meanwhile, keep an eye on sophia technologies, down about 5% in the premarket. this company is to get a big chunk of its business by refinancing student loans, and over the last couple of years, the ceo has said that business has fallen by about 50%, largely because of the government moratorium on student loan payments that was set to expire at the beginning of may. that has been extended through the end of august. the company came out last night come arising there for your revenue down slightly, but it seems like adjusted ebit. is going to be half of what was previously forecasted. meanwhile, levi strauss nicking a nice little come back here. they reported earnings last night, shares of about 2.6%. volume was back to 2019 levels. a couple of interesting downgrades to keep an eye on. the folks at wells fargo downgrading home depot and a bunch of other retail stocks, citing inflation, the fed, and the potential risk for a

recession that could tamp down consumer demand. to the upside is citigroup, initiating roadblocks with a -- citigroup, initiating road blocks with a nuy rating. tom: we heard from lori heinel and dan ives their optimism of the economic experiment of earnings and investment. evan brown joins us now with ubs . yes, multi-asset strategy, but far more trumpeting the remain robust tone of the union bank of switzerland. i am absolutely thrilled, buried in your note is one big on the gloom -- one big yeah but on the gloom that is out there. how do you position yourself? evan: we went quickly from

exuberance on growth to now gloom. isaac the story is somewhat in the middle. we are seeing some of the growth indicators moderate. housing, which you would expect in a higher rate environment, cooling off. cooling-off does not mean falling off a cliff. so we have jumped very far from talking about growth to recession. it is ok if we have a little bit slow down without a recession here. that is the base case for us. lisa: you talk about timing. this is important, to look at yield curve as perhaps an indicator, but not that forward. you can't get too carried away with what it might be saying down the line. there will be a recession at some point, but if it happens two years from now, it is not necessarily going to affect your view of equities right now. what you looking at in terms of how long it is going to take and

where it will take the equity cycle in terms of getting more bullish? evan: i can't tell you when the recession is going to come. i don't think anyone really knows. we watch the indicators, we watch things like the shorter end of the yield curve, 18 months, two years out, whether the market is really pricing in cuts. in terms of how we position, i think it is no longer this really overate or underweight equities. you play in between in the markets and sectors, you pick out some areas of the market where there is still a positive story. energy is not just about russia-ukraine. there's still going to be this push towards infrastructure. energy security is going to take

old-school energy. that is going to take other commodities, metals and the like . but with some growing concerns about both, maybe we should put a little bit into more defensive sectors like health care, like staples, that kind of thing. it is no longer simple growth versus value. lisa: is apple a consumer stable ? evan: that is a great question. i am top down, so much at the individual stocks. lisa: but the bigger point that some of the behemoths that have in the past been thought as luxury goods providers, increasingly the mainstay, in this feud as a sector as an increasingly recession resilient sector as opposed to something that on the margins could really suffer in tandem with declining consumer sentiment? evan: it is hard to bet against these.

they have been so consistent with earnings. i don't see a major reason to get to bearish on these right now. with real yields going higher, then the nasdaq comes off. but fighting these super caps in the earnings profile has not proven to be a particularly good strategy over the years. tom: off of dollar dynamics, can i believe in international stocks? that was the rage 12 long months ago. where do we fit international stocks right now, or do we run? evan: i think it is a matter of being country specific. europe is tricky with russia-ukraine. japan, we are seeing some pick there. dollar-yen moving higher. that is an interesting place. but really, the place to be is in em. not so much asia, but in these

big commodity producers. the dependable commodity producers where you will not get a shot off of supply we have seen in russia. we are talking about brazil, these kind of places producing commodities that are so in demand and where there are supply concerns, you want to be in those kinds of markets. jonathan: a constructive. send our best to luke. evan brown of ubs asset management. luke kawa, our old friend. the accounts from the ecb's last meeting, here's a head scratcher for you. this quote right here. given the extremely strong starting point of the anchoring of medium-term and lesion expectations, it was difficult to see how this shock could push the euro area economy into stagflation. it was difficult to see how that might be the case.

in the accounts of the ecb's last meeting. lisa: this goes to what bill dudley was saying when you ask why do fed officials speak so differently when they are not at the federal reserve. he said it is a very uncomfortable story to tell, that you could potentially risk sending an economy into recession by trying to fight inflation. how much is this a message and exercise instead of trying to project confidence in the euro area while also recognizing this stagflationary shock? jonathan: they seem to be opening the door to a fiscal effort because the fiscal response would also be very a port to achieving a favorable outcome. at the same time, weaker activity could nonetheless result in a technical recession in terms of quarter on quarter growth rates. just working through this one, but the stagflation line, i think there's a lot of people who believe that might be the case for europe this year. tom: it is something that bloomberg does very well,

parsing out the different models and all of that. i don't dive into it, but recession, i don't think that is the issue. the issue is how much of negative gdp in europe. tom: sergey lavrov, the russian foreign minister, here's one for you. ukraine is trying to stall and undermine the talks with russia. that is the latest from the russian side. tom: john kirby is over at "morning joe" this morning. the former admiral now with secretary of defense austen, he's talking about odesa and the black sea. that is important. odesa has not been spoken of enough. jonathan: and taking a more constructive view on that. equities up just a little bit, little more than 0.1%. we saved someone on the nasdaq 100, up 0.3%. from new york, this is bloomberg

. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia is rejecting the latest ukrainian proposal for ending the war. foreign minister sergei lavrov said proposals on crimea and donbass are on except will. he also says ukraine is trying to undermine the negotiations and that the u.s. and its allies want the board to continue. the next economic jolt to russia will probably come in the labor market. it is set to more than double, exceeding 9% for the first time in more than a decade. the shanghai lockdown is threatening to become the biggest crisis of president xi jinping's 10-year. the struggle has triggered rare

pushback from residents, many saying the communist party's covid cure is worse than the disease. shanghai's reaction could inspire other cities to resist lockdowns. -- will write down as $5 billion for its withdraw from russia. shell said trading of oil and gas are looking to be higher than in previous years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is absolutely critical that we get that money. we in the next few months will

run out of tests, run out of monoclonal antibodies, run out of antiviral drugs, as well as the important work that needs to be done to do studies to determine what the best booster should be. jonathan: dr. anthony fauci there. good morning. features positive just about on the s&p by a little more than 0.1%. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.25%. we are looking for a number in and around 200,000 in our survey of estimates. just a note for anyone trying to follow the masters, 80 off time delay for tiger woods, pushed back about 30 minutes due to bad weather. according to reports, tiger teeing off at 11:04 eastern time. tom: we are teeing off right now with a chart. kriti gupta here with an important chart. kriti: i am just going to go off of what evan brown said. he really focused on have an

exposure to the export oriented economy, names like brazil, like australia. there's a case to be made with some of that same exposure. we do have a pretty big export base. forecasting record exports when it comes to agricultural product when you have oil, defense, all products that are going to help the united states bottom line. when it comes to the trade-weighted dollar, relative to the recovery that we saw post great financial crisis come on the left and the chart, you see this major surge into the dollar similar to the one we saw in 2020, but the difference is two years outcome you saw a round-trip, it would getting of the dollar that boosted those american exports. this time two years out from that surge, you are seeing the dollar strength again. a lot of it has to do with inflation or pressures, but how does that help exports at a time when the united states could help fill the gap from russia. tom: wanted to the great truisms

of the beatles is it started in different clubs in hamburg in 1961. separately, watson and crick found a thing called messenger rna with a brilliant set of teams. christian beyrer has lived this at johns hopkins university, and he understands the path from 19 to one to the miracle that pfizer and moderna brought. what is this about the national pride of china and their inability to say watson and crick and pfizer and moderna got that right, let's import that and get it fixed? dr. beyrer: they started with a much older technology not based on mrna. they basically used a whole virus approach which goes back to pasteur's era.

unfortunately they got that vaccine up pretty quickly. it had pretty good efficacy against the original strain, but the original strain is extinct. there's nothing circulating in the world right now side from omicron and the ba-2 subvariant. they also went with this zero covid policy, using lockdowns and social distancing. it turns out that that also worked pretty well with the earlier variantss, but now they are so much more infectious at the zero covid policies make them vulnerable. tom: can we give them mrna? can you see a medical position where you can get two political positions to do this, to bring pfizer, moderna, etc. to them to

make for a better china? dr. beyrer: they have already purchased about 100 million doses, but of course, they have 1.3 billion plus people, so that is not anywhere near enough. they made a manufacturing agreement to make mrna in china, so that technology transfer is likely to happen and is underway , but it is going to take time. it is easy to make mrna. what is hard to do is to get it into that lipid nano particle so that it is taken up into the tissues and the cells and delivers its mrna message. that is the hard part. lisa: we are talking about the granularity of this virus. we are not talking about wholesale lockdown in the united states or europe. how much is health concerns still keeping people on the sidelines of the labor market in almost every store you go into? dr. beyrer: we are in an interesting place.

the data on boosting just keeps getting better. it turns out that mrna is good against protecting against long covid. that is really encouraging, but we are still stuck at 66% overall vaccination in the united states. the vaccine uptake is down to a trickle, and we are not getting the boosting that we need in people over 50 and particularly over 65. as we can see from what is happening in hong kong and vietnam, this can get you in the hospital and can kill you. jonathan: how vulnerable is somebody over 50 who had their booster at the end of last year and is eligible for another one, but has not got it?

dr. beyrer: we are seeing a significant number of infections in people who are vaccinated, lower in people who are boosted. the israeli data shows pretty clearly that you've got further significant reduction in deaths for people who get a fourth dose. that is part of why the u.s. has made that recommendation based on the israeli data. the numbers are not huge in terms of deaths still well under 1%, but you don't want to be in that 1%. jonathan: i will agree with that point for sure. thank you. i have to say, it has not been a major push to go around and get that booster and quite same way there was at the end of last year. tom: i do take your point. you have been vocal on this. there's some questions out there. there's definitely not a major push, and i think one of our guests at one point said we need more study. jonathan: a lot of people asking

a logical question. i've had three in the last 12 months. why do i need a fourth? tom: i think the major method we are hearing is what is critical is to get the first booster, the so-called third shot. that seems to be what the adults in the room are saying. jonathan: we will let the doctors give the responses to those questions. there is something going on in this economy. flights getting canceled again. we are experiencing friends, family getting a case of covid once more. are we reintroducing the disruption we saw at the back end of last year, the start of this year through spring? lisa: you suck christine lagarde confirm this morning that she also has been diagnosed with covid, although it is just a mild symptom attic case. how much are we going to see wholesale disruption at a time when people want none of that? people want to move on. you are seeing that be the feeling more than anything else. still annoying when your plane gets canceled, just

theoretically. jonathan: theoretically. not through experience. or twice in a row. that is killer. lisa: well, i am not alone. jonathan: florida, all those getting canceled. lisa: all weekend long. tom: would you like to expand on that? lisa: first world problems. [laughter]

>> i think people are overestimating the strength of the consumer. >> if the fed wants to slow demand they need to get financial conditions tighter. >> inflation will roll back. it will probably be later this year, early next year type of phenomenon. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a thursday claims in 30 minutes. what we claim is optimism, way too much opti