>> a lot of what the fed has to do initially is just catch up. >> pricing hikes it is clear that is the direction of travel. >> the fed is almost price to perfection. >> if the fed overreacts they might be in a tougher spot in the fall. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from europe city, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. futures just about positive on the s&p, setting you up going into the weekend, with cpi and earnings in america. tom: it will be interesting to see earnings. ecb just as important. the market speaks volumes. i am looking at dollar, strong,

persistent. with all of the angst about the french election, a 1.08 level, dollar-yen up to 1.24. if we see a 125, that is a signal of a resilient dollar. jonathan: that is the story below the equity market. look at the sector performance. there are some alarm bells ringing. it is the banks underperforming in not responding to higher interest rates. higher yields in the treasury market. tom: opening-day, red sox/yankees. it works. the bloom crew can work to up -- the gloom crew can point to a lot of micro data. tom: we can talk to the -- jonathan: we can talk to the bloom -- the gloom crew right

now. lisa: next week we do get the cpi print. and then into earnings. here is the issue for me. if you get good earnings, good projections into the future, does that mean we are not at peak option is for the fed, they have to move faster or at least signal greater hikes and a faster reduction of the balance sheet in order to inject control over inflation. tom: this keys up the bank of america note. bill dudley in everyone's mind. he is in yours, too. lisa: i keep wondering at what point does the fed look at the market response and say this is not good enough. jonathan: futures are positive. we are up one third of 1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq up 0.28%. down hard on the week for the nasdaq. yields up a lot this week.

2.6735 on the 10 year. crude, a $95 handle on wti. down about .1%. lisa: it has been a round-trip. we are back where we were before the war started. the answer as to why is not necessarily positive. you have the strategic petroleum release, you also have the potential slow down and this feeling we will get tighter monetary policy. when it comes to the war in ukraine, there is not a resolution. perhaps we are in a bit of a pause. today olaf scholz is making his first visit to london visiting boris johnson. looking for beautiful pictures of them at 8:30. how much do they talk about the gas issue? the u.k. is more willing to ban imports of gas from russia, not so much germany. at 12:00, the usda will release their world agricultural supply

demand report of corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. how much supply from the united states could offset the decrease we have seen in the export from ukraine? the increase we are seeing in food prices. 13% in the month of april. this leads to the highest rate of inflation for food going back to ever. a 50% climb in food prices since the peak of the pandemic in 2020. this weekend, this leads into the french presidential election. these higher commodity prices, higher commercial prices have driven support of marine le pen facing off against emmanuel macron. this is led to some trepidation about the euro, the weakest versus the dollar going back to 2020. is it realistic she could wind? tom: this is important and falls

into the second round of the election. this just in. we have a photograph. i think -- does this look good as our set for that second paris election? jonathan: it looks fantastic on radio. are you still trying to sell this trip to paris? tom: it looks great. we thank alain for setting us up with the french government. jonathan: you've promised miss is keen a trip to paris -- you've promised mrs. keene a trip to paris? lisa: he is trying to expense it. tom: i'm trying to dovetail it would surveillance. jonathan: greg staples joins us now. on qt, you have a thought which i think is out of consensus. you said qt impactful but not as market moving. why is that?

greg: i think the narrative for the fixed income markets was basically pricing in it hiking. the narrative in the second quarter is going to be qt and how that impacts the longer end of the market. the fed, with all do respect, it has put out peak option us in terms of pulp -- peak hawkishness in terms of policy. it is clear they are on autopilot for the next year. it is now for the market to catch up with the fed. the long end probably has more room to run. probably get the 10 year to flirt with 3%. if the market does little bit of the fed's lifting for it and people look at a terminal rate of 3.5% price did come a 3% attend year you will see a bit of a pullback from chief financial officers, from investors, from house builders

come and see slow down in the economy. that would give the fit room to not have to go to that 3.5%. perhaps 2.5% is the real rate into 2023. tom: you went into economics at columbia at the time of paul volcker and the ferment we saw in the late 70's and 1980's. this is the first time i've spoken about this with greg staples and i will -- in eight years. soft patch. define how a soft patch is doable versus the bloom of recession? gregory: when you talk about recession you're talking about two consecutive quarters of negative growth. forecasters are starting to talk about that in 2023. we would not be surprised at all to see a quarter of two of one handle growth or even one handle of slightly negative growth. that is not a recession. that is a soft patch. we do not think there any

overleveraged balance sheet items that will lead to a sharp slowdown. the data is always erratic in the u.s. economy. it picks up and slows down. a true recession we do not see. lisa: do you think fed policy is on autopilot? gregory: the short end has little bit of flexibility. if you see a couple of quarters of lower psi receive the jobless claims numbers soft and a little bit. i think they have the flexibility to go on to pause, maybe 25 basis points or even take a quarter off. in terms of quantitative tightening, i think they pre-much on autopilot. the only thing they have to do now is the $35 billion in mortgages and $60 billion in treasury runoffs, some of the month they do not have that much and they might look to the mortgage market to sell more to get that target. lisa: you said markets have to

catch up. where needs to be catching up the quickest? gregory: i think on the long end. i think the short end has done as much work as it can. if we truly get to 3% by the middle of 2023, i think the economy feels that. we have the impact on the housing market, on capital expenditures. that is the area you need to get the 3%. with all due respect to mr. doubly, i agree with him, i am not sure i agree with the causality. you need to see weakness of the equity market and the rest market. i'm not sure we are there yet. jonathan: greg staples, thank you as always. can you get on board with that, the idea we have seen peak hawkishness if qt is not as market moving as expected. lisa: we do not understand quantitative tightening, and i say we as me.

we do not understand the ramifications. some of the on the fed wanted to focus on the front end. they had to take a more aggressive stance. jonathan: real yield, the final round, i will ask, qt, does it people hide yields or lower yields and let's see, everyone sits there and goes higher, higher, higher, and they will go lower, lower, lower. i imagine the three will split. lisa: yesterday i went to my bloomberg terminal and looked up the fed balance sheet and it was basically flat. jonathan: for you excited for? it might go down? lisa: you might start to see a sharp decline. jonathan: you might see that in the months to come. tune into bloomberg real yield and then after that you can watch the golf at 1:45. isn't that a perfect afternoon? tom: it is a good afternoon.

the way i would look at this, i'm trying to expand my tang choice will i watch the masters. there is not just orange tang. it is huge in brazil. jonathan: are you trying to come to brazil? jonathan: i just think -- tom: i just think that would be something to watch the masters with. jonathan: is this on the way to paris? tang is huge overseas. tom: we should do market research in brazil. jonathan: futures up one third of 1% on the s&p. yields up three basis points. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world.

for the first time the european union has targeted russia's crucial energy revenues. the block agreed to ban russian coal imports and japan may follow. it is the fifth round of eu sanctions since russia invaded ukraine. it also includes a ban on russian trucks and ships from entering the eu. the war in ukraine is entering a new phase six weeks after vladimir putin launched the invasion. ukraine may have just weeks to acquire new weapons. russian forces are expected to regroup after being pushed out of the area around kyiv. meanwhile dozens of refugees were killed after russians allegedly filed -- fired a missile at a train station. russian central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate the most in two decades. the rate went from 20% to 17%. that is a sign of confidence the central bank can reverse some of the monetary tightening it imposed after the invasion.

janet yellen is counting on the support of corporate america for a global tax deal. big business is nowhere near backing the plan. bloomberg spoke to executives at eight multinational corporations. they say there is too much they do not know about the deal. the fine print is still being negotiated. he is four shots behind the leader after the first round. tiger woods shot one underpar in his first round of golf in 17 months. he has been recovering from a car crash that nearly cost him his life. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the calculation is telling us where we should be, under minimal assumptions, very generous assumptions, we should be a 3.5%. we are actually only one third of 1%. you are too low by about 300 basis points. jonathan: he has become very hawkish. that is james bullard. futures are positive on the s&p, up one third of 1%. on the nasdaq up one third of 1%. on the 10 year, a big week

higher by as much as 30 basis points. today up two basis points. on the year, your two year closed 2021 at 73 basis points. it is now 2.5238. if i told you what would happen with rates to the first quarter into april and where the banks would be, would you tell me jp morgan would be down 17% end of last seven days the kbw banks index lower through all of them. something is going on with the banks. i find it fascinating ahead of earnings season. tom: i will go to economics growth and how they dovetail economic growth. we will learn a lot next week. one tip i would have is i think you will see expense control reaffirmed. we are always strong on bank earnings. something bloomberg surveillance

has believed in from day one. we have the advantage of alison williams at bloomberg intelligence and others on the street. kenneth leon will join us next week. we are thrilled he joins us now to start global wall street and their weekend contemplation of the future of our banks. let's go to jamie dimon's letter. he has trepidation about apple and others. what are we going to learn about bank technology investment this week when we look out five years? kenneth: it is great to be here. of the growth of expenses for jp morgan, 40% to 50% is investing in technology. technology is needed to protect the franchise as it relates to new entrants, whether it is apple, any form of payments outside the system, and in the mortgage area, banks are a small percentage.

they used to be 80%. it is below 30% of the market for mortgage origination. we are seeing technology leveling the playing field, and for banks that have strong brand, scale, antitrust, they have to invest. that affects margins. tom: i have $60 billion of operating income for jp morgan plus or minus a couple billion. who is counting? why do they have to build it internally? why don't they biofarma -- why don't they buy a firm? why don't they just buy the young turks? kenneth: they are doing that on the early venture-capital stage but not in terms of significant headline multibillion-dollar transactions. the other factor is why apple or amazon will not cross the

rubicon on bank regulations. they do not want to be banks. there is enormous capital put to the side for regulation, whether it is fossil three or other requirements or even paying the fbi see. those runs -- the fbi see -- the fdic. those are the banks that an apple does not want but the banks bear. jonathan: this bond market is seeing massive moves in the equity market. the banks are not responding anymore, not just europe but the united states as well. i want to understand your interpretation of what is going on. what is the forward look the equity market is picking up on given it is no longer trading on high yields. kenneth: no matter whether we have a strong or weak economy,

the fed has to move ahead to control inflation. we have already seen it in the bond market, the magnitude of the rates. we are not in the perfect world. the bull case prior to the russia ukraine more has been in a stable to growing economy, rising rates was the benefit for banks. one of the concerns is the consumer. the other concern is whether corporate's will hold back on capital investment because of the uncertainty and also the rising cost coming from inflation. those are significant clouds we did not have back in early february. lisa: we will see mortgage rates rise towards 5% and borrowing costs more broadly increased dramatically. how much are you expecting lending to decline? kenneth: we already just looked at the mortgage bankers association forecast, which tends to be more positive.

they are essentially calling for mortgage origination in 2022 versus 2021 to be flat. the number of loans coming down significantly. what we are seeing, does this time different in the housing market? one third of the buyers of existing homes is institutional investors, possibly as an inflation hedge. when you look at recent homebuilders, kb homes had 18% or 19% growth in their recent quarter has come from pricing. only 1% or 2% has been on volume. the backdrop has been the brakes are happening in the housing market, and again it will take quarters before we have a real number conversation about credit loan loss exposure and nonperforming loans. jonathan: great to catch up ahead of earnings next week.

ken leon of cfra. this from bank of america. we downgrade transports on waiting demand and price dives given deteriorating demand outlooks. we downgrade ratings on nine of the eight stocks in our coverage universe. railroads to neutral, union pacific, canadian pacific. these are the issues the equity markets starting to pick up on. tom: bloomberg surveillance in front of this does two days ago with paul sweeney. george ferguson was grim, no other way to put it. jonathan: is the transports, it is the homebuilders. it is the banks as well. lisa: are we pricing in a slowdown or a recession? what is the distinction? increasingly that will be the focus for a lot of analysis. jonathan: for the moment we are pricing in the former. if you become something worse we will see. futures up one third on the s&p.

on the nasdaq, up one third of 1%. yields higher on the session. 2.6754 will earnings season just around the corner. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: what a fascinating moment in this equity market. your equity market positive one third of 1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq up a third of 1%. on the week we are lower and there is this bias starting to emerge. let's talk about that. bank of america downgrading the transports. demand and freight rates as well. there is story in the banks. for seven straight days the kbw bank index is lower. over those seven days it is lower almost 10%, down 9.28%. this is happening even with this developing at the bond market. the yield curve is not flatter, it is steeper. yields are higher, not lower.

banks are trading weaker. yields on the 10 year up about 30 basis points. higher one basis point or so. we get back up to about 2.50. there is some steepness back in the curve. starting to see banks failed to respond to higher yields from the prospect of higher interest rates going into earnings next week. if you look through the equity market, lift the lid, you start to see the economic incentive part of this equity market struggle a little bit more. tom: there are 24 members of the bank index. it is a good mathematical snapshot of american banking. only five or six of those stocks , the stocks we talk about 95% of the time, i think you have to separate out jamie dimon and what bank of america is doing from the mere mortals of banking that have to deal with an

american economy with 8% inflation. jonathan: jp morgan is down year 17%. when it comes to spending the need to start to show next week with returns will be on that spending. the regionals, you would think higher rates would help them out. not so if you believe this economy will be weaker over the next 12 months. it is a forward look on that we need from the earnings. tom: i'm not even going to mention the name of the bank because it does not matter, they're not a big bank. they are down very much the jp morgan equivalent. i'm trying to do the math and real-time. they are down 26% versus 70% on jp morgan. -- versus 17% on jp morgan. jonathan: throw in the homebuilders in the transport. morgan stanley is doubling down on defensive's for this reason. tom: one of our staff had to

move from buffalo to washington and she had to move fancy. $900 to fly from buffalo to washington. jonathan: getting expensive. the cost of the flights are through the roof at the moment. tom: everyone knows that. we welcome all of you as we jump forward. a spirited conversation to end the week. anastasia amoroso joins us. anastasia, i want to talk you about international relations. we will save that for later in the conversation. how has your outlook changed as we begin the second quarter? anastasia: it has changed quite a bit. one thing that has not changed is the view we have had on cyclicals. we have been talking to investors about rotating out of those cyclical spots, and for reasons of what john just talked about. this is not being set over bullish rate hikes.

this is not alleged developments the fed is pulling back on liquidity. i think there is a real concern about a slowdown. things are getting too expensive and consumers may be in a double way me situation where prices are high and the fit is hiking rates which is making all of the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy prohibitive. that is a big part of the outlook. the other thing i would say, we have a little bit of breathing room near term given how much valuation we have had in q1 and giving how much positioning in q1. we are now in a stalemate situation, whether it is inflation, whether is ukraine. barring adverse developments we have breathing room for the equity package. we cannot ignore the longer-term risks of the consumer lending session or slow down that are

building. now is the time to right size the risk in the portfolio. when we have the rallies, when we have the recent lower volatility, i would be using that to de-risk parts of the portfolio. lisa: when you expect to start seeing your consumer led recession if that does come to pass? anastasia: i think we will see at least a slowdown. consumer confidence is at a 10 year low come into one year at recession probability is about 65%. we have some indications. we also have expectations for personal finances that have fallen sharply. these buying conditions for durable goods have slumped to the lowest level on record. i'm not surprised to see the transportation sector is starting to feel that. i they we will start to see a slowdown in the next quarter or

two. to have this be a recession, i think the fed has to commit a policy error and has to over tighten too much into a slowing economy. it is not the base case at the moment. that is definitely a risk worth watching and a risk worth hedging. lisa: what is the balance of the portfolio? is it the commodity sector? is it long bonds after they have risen so high? anastasia: first we should talk about the portfolio, which for most people is some kind of s&p exposure and the nasdaq exposure. since january or february 2020, the s&p is up 30%. since march 2020, you are up 100%. that is a huge return over the last couple of years. it is reducing the risk in that. one way to do that, there was a time in a place to belong equities and long only and have

this one directional exposure. now we are talking about layering hedges and maybe you sell some of the upside and you use that premium to buy a put option so you have some sort of protection on the downside. i think that is one of the more important things that investors can do. then it is about sectors and where else can you get a yield? tom: what is the price to hedge right now? is it outrageous? is everybody on board? anastasia: it is not outrageous. that is why am talking about today versus a month ago. when you had a spike of 35 that was not the time to be talking about putting on the downside protection. now at 20, now is the time to be looking at some of those put options. it gets very dynamic very quickly. you want to find the points on volatility curve where you can

sell rich call premiums and get a put option that is reasonably priced. definitely not outrageous. tom: we have called on you over the years for the perspective of your heritage and the travels you've made, particular to the black sea. this is a weekend where odessa is under unique threat. to you, what is the odessa distinction. what does it mean to ukraine and to russia? anastasia: it is a dire situation, needless to say, in ukraine. fortunately there is been an almost international concession that russia is not likely to succeed broadly in ukraine. it seems like russia has a good chance of succeeding in the donbas region or the black sea region and connecting that. perhaps russia will not get ukraine as the buffer zone they

were hoping for, but it seems like it is likely they might succeed at reuniting the southeastern part of ukraine and carving that out as a buffer zone they so desperately wanted. jonathan: awesome as always. fantastic to catch up. anastasia amoroso on the situation in ukraine and the broader market. should you buy the weakness in some of the cyclical parts of the equity market? do you want to buy some cyclicality? that is the conversation with the guests. tom: and kenneth leon saying the big banks are undervalued. look at dan ives. on fire over the cheapness -- eyes it is a joke are the big text the new consumer staples. jonathan: resetting the valuations into earnings. lisa: what i find fascinating is when you start to talk about potential hedges you talk about rearranging sectors. a get much more granular than

ever before. i look at retail. when you lead into cyclical weakness, does that mean buy retailers down 11% year to date versus the sub 6% decline of the s&p? how much do you lead into that? jonathan: market timing is so difficult. a note from goldman. "timing bear markets is more difficult than forecasting recessions." he said "timing the market competes with time in the market. you try to time the market it with time in the market." looking through the history of equity markets, time in the market is everything. tom: you have to be in the game to play. gina martin adams of bloomberg's outstanding on that concept. what i talk to anastasia amoroso about, the key thing with odessa, to the southwest of

odessa, they are a stunning 100 miles from romania, where nato would set up shop. 100 miles. jonathan: your best place to talk about this. that body of water. turkey's role in it? tom: huge. they have some kind of original power. i do not think anyone knows what mr. erdogan's power is. the bosporus strait is always key. jonathan: on tv and radio counting you down to the opening bell in a couple hours. equities up .4%. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. in ukraine officials say missile

attack on a railroad station filled with refugees has killed dozens of people and wounded at least 300. the station is on the eastern flank of the territory held by ukrainian forces. the war is entering a new phase. it is likely ukraine has just weeks to acquire weapons for fighting in the eastern part of the country. global food prices are rising of the fastest pace ever. the war in ukraine has choked off crop supplies leading to planning about shortages and key staples. according to the u.n. food prices rose 13% last month. ketanji brown jackson will make history when she becomes the first black woman to take her place on the supreme court. the senate confirmed horror -- confirmed her nomination by a vote of 53-47. in costa rica dhl cargo jet

broken two when it skidded off the runway after emergency landing. the two pilots escaped without serious injury. they reported problems just moments after takeoff. tesla will start production of three vehicles that have fallen behind elon musk's schedule. must revealed the plan at the opening of teslas newest factory in austin, texas. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪ ♪

>> i think inflation has a lot of momentum. i think wage growth is very

strong. the fed is going through a hard time. they have to slow the machine a lot. jonathan: olivia blend chart -- olivier blanchard there. there is a lift going to friday's opening bell. we kick things off with j.p. morgan on the 13th. yields higher on the 10 year, up two basis points. olivier was talking about wages. this story crossing the bloomberg. walmart ramping up paper its truckers. they will be able to earn between $95,000 and $110,000 in their first year at the company. that is the result of a tight labor market.

you get to earn that kind of money. tom: you get to earn that kind of money across many other industries. what are we waiting for? what it comes down to is profit disappears, or they pass on these labor increases enterprise. it is either/or. jonathan: 26% higher than the previous average for new drivers. fantastic when people get that kind of pay rise. tom: let's look at a chart. kriti gupta expands further. kriti: the story will be the food prices hitting a record. this is important. you talked about the black sea. this is what the u.n. report is talking about the driver behind the latest leg higher, the idea that there is reduced export supplies amid the ongoing conflict in the black sea reason -- the black sea region. that has to do with where the grains go and were vegetable oil

goes. turkey in particular. the question is what is the historical precedent. if you look back 10 years, there are two spikes. one in 2007 and the one in 2010 which is the post-recessionary recovery and the crop crisis. the difference is how long does it take to get the price relief that is the question a lot of people will be asking. tom: kriti gupta, thank you so much. dow futures up 147. the vix, 21.23. now we attend paris and that can only mean caroline connan who has provided leadership in our paris operation for years and we are thrilled she can join us with the tower in the background. on the right, marine le pen. all of the focuses on emmanuel macron.

what happened to francoise mitterand and jack chirac's left. caroline: the left-wing has almost disappeared in this election campaign. the far left could do about 15%. the french have been veering right in this election. as you may have seen over the past week in the french bond market, we have the spreads widening and the cac 40 lower this week. there is some anxiety about the tightening between the two front runners, president emmanuel macron, and marine le pen from the far right. some polls recently showed the lead would only be a few points in the second round. tom: let's say we have this election and it is like emmanuel macron, le pen, and all of that,

and we bring surveillance over for the second election. what did they do between the disco elections? how do they campaign? what changes? caroline: is clearly a delicate phase for investors. this time around, like 2017, will be between the disk around, between this sunday and april 24. all of the polls are showing emmanuel macron woodwind with only about 50 -- would win with only about 50% of the vote and marine le pen getting about 48% of the vote. you have to remember there is a three-point margin of error. this is a delicate phase. there will be a debate between the two remaining contenders on april 20. a lot can happen because marine le pen has refocused this

election and this campaign on the issue of purchasing power, which is obviously at the heart of french people's concerns given the current inflation, especially in the energy sector. tom: -- lisa: this came up with former president trump about the accuracy of polling. people did not want to say they were going to vote for him so polls undercounted the support leading up to the election. is there a similar phenomenon in france? caroline: i will say we should not worry as much as an 2017, when you had a risk of far left versus far right in the runoff. anything is possible. you soft brexit, you saw donald trump. the pollsters have a hard time to measure the turnout. this will be key. the problem is lot of the french thought this election was done,

emmanuel macron would be reelected and it would be an easy victory, another five years for the current president. that is causing some french to think they were not going to vote on sunday because the games are done. when you've seen brexit, when you've seen donald trump, anything can happen. it could be a bad thing for emmanuel macron. he will have to mobilize between the two rounds if he wants to boost margins and have a victory on april 24. jonathan: let's not lose this moment. the french like to complain about the list whether. i've known caroline connan for more than 10 years, she used to complain about the weather. what is this? at 2:00 in paris, looks at 7:00 at night. what is wrong with the french

weather? caroline: the weather forecast does not help anxiety and voter turnout. if the weather improves on sunday, perhaps emmanuel macron and marine le pen and the 10 other candidates will manage to get some of their troops to vote on sunday. jonathan: caroline connan, an old friend of ours. thank you so much. tom: thank her for scouting out that ensemble for surveillance. jonathan: led to get through it. coverage sunday start at 7:00 in london, 2:00 in new york. in the middle of the night in hong kong. lisa: who are you trolling? jonathan: i have known carolyn for a long time. when we used to work in the london office she used to complain a lot about things in london, including the weather. i thought i would take the opportunity to convey to the

french that they suffer from the same thing as the lush, which is -- as the english, which is bad weather. lisa: if you want to respond he is @ferrotv. jonathan: i am sure the french will get involved in a minute. [laughter] jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> equities look relatively attractive given the environment. >> if things turn out as markets are pricing at the moment we will have a significant yield advantage for the u.s.. >> the market knows qt is coming. >> we went from exuberance on growth to gloom. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and television, not your usual friday. a