>> equities look relatively attractive given the environment. >> if things turn out as markets are pricing at the moment we will have a significant yield advantage for the u.s.. >> the market knows qt is coming. >> we went from exuberance on growth to gloom. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and television, not your usual friday. a massive set up to a massive

week next week. jonathan: cpi next week, most people on wall street looking for an eight handle and earnings from jp morgan after that and on the policy response from the ecb. a tough spot for central bankers. for many people they got themselves into it. tom: away from the tension in ukraine we have to go to what matters this morning and to meet as the bank of america downgrade. they look at transportation and other parts of the american economy and they see demand destruction. jonathan: bank of america downgrade nine of the 28 transports in their coverage. in the banks, seven straight days of losses on the kbw bank index. yields are higher, the purpose deeper. this is about demand destruction. let's look -- tom: let's look at the signals we see in this raging debate over recession, over where we will be, forget

about q3 2023, how about q3 2022? everyone knows and equity land that lisa abramowicz knows credit. what does the credit signal? lisa: they have been signaling strength. resilience in companies. you are to see that crack with a move away from the riskier credit. with the fundamental story, you talk about transports. how much is some of the weakness in the equity space driven by softening and how much is driven by walmart's announcement they will pay truckers up to $110,000. how much is this margin pressure? we will have to parse out the type of messaging. tom: we have to go to damian sassower. you and i would do this with damien. sri lanka, this is the jump conditions, whether it is united states or something as

emerging-market with sri lanka with a massive lifted interest rates. they go from 7.5% to 14.5%. those are the jump conditions that are the instability of the second quarter. jonathan: russia went the other way and cut rates 300 basis points. interesting to see what happens at the end of the year, when the central bank faces a different challenge. at the moment the federal reserve does not see a trade-off between the economy and inflation. later this year is there a different test? with central banks it is not. is it later this year. tom: we start with currency. everything i look at is little moves but they scream resilient dollars. jonathan: let's start with the equity market. on the nasdaq 100 up one third of 1%. down on the week on the s&p by about 1%. yields higher on the week by

about 30 basis points over the last five days. 2.6754 on the 10 year. crude has pulled back. up today by 1%. we have a 97 handle on wti. on wall street, i want to frame this in the appropriate way. for a lot of people this war is not over, for everyone this war is not over, project lead for the people in ukraine. from a market perspective so many people have moved on. quite quickly. tom: is always trouble. this happened in 1939 in 1940 in capitalism continue to move even in the depths of world war ii, the canal -- the low in 1941. it is the reality that capitalism continues forward. jonathan: it has to be anticipatory. the more the fund managers move on from this, you can see it. markets become less sensitive. tom: a busy week for weekend

reading in global wall street. a focus on the masters. bloomberg radio has good coverage of the masters. we get a summary, start to the weekend, with scott clemens, chief investment strategist at brown brothers. you are known for quiet money. how do you strategize on quiet money given the cacophony of news right now? scott: no offense to your profession, but you have to listen through the news and listen through the headlines and the inevitable price volatility this cacophony creates and focused on the underlying fundamentals. economically that is household spending and household consumption and 68% of gdp. it is corporate earnings. that is the fuel. we will learn more about this the next couple of weeks. there are a lot of moving parts that upgraded a lot of volatility.

we have cautioned our clients not to expect those to go away. even if investors move on beyond russia and ukraine, there still a lot of other moving parts to the economy, fed policy being the foremost of them. jonathan: we have seen the more cyclical parts of the equally market, the more sensitive parts suffer. i wonder from your perspective, when you think about buying those kind of parts of the equity market, what drives that decision? scott: i am reminded of an old adage in the financial markets that whereas the most anticipated risk is the least dangerous, the least anticipated risk is most dangerous. given so much talk about an economic slowdown, we are optimistic, we do not by the pessimism of a recession in 2022. if that weighs on market sentiment enough to drive down

valuation to more cyclical parts of the market, that might provide a buying opportunity. we are not close to there yet. it will play a large role in our per folio -- they do not play a large role in our portfolio, the valuations are not compelling. jonathan: as we wait for it -- lisa: as we wait for earnings to start, how much is margin compression a good thing as lower income workers see bigger wage gains that we have seen from walmart truckers in the atlanta fed data that just came out? scott: it is a good question and i think there's a silver lining in all the handwringing about average hourly earnings. forgive this simple economist for drawing the following conclusion, but if more people have more jobs and there is more money in those people's pockets, keeping in mind consumption is two thirds of gdp, that sounds like a constructive economic background. i admit there is margin compression on the other cited the trade, but margins are

compression -- are compressing starting from high levels. s&p 500 operating margins have ranged between 8% and 10% in the rebound out of the worst quarters of the pandemic, margins rebounded closer to 12% or 13%. there is headroom there. i'm expecting another upside surprise the first quarter across the s&p 500 because margins have been healthy to begin with. lisa: how much you hear bill dudley's voice in your head, that if we get the upside surprise that means a downside surprise for the fed? scott: the thing that surprised me the most this week was the fed seems to be more concerned about inflation than i would have anticipated. that forms in the comments that were made and that lael brainard emphasized that the fed needs to accelerate with reduction of the balance sheet. i did not anticipate that the

happen so soon in this tightening cycle. i think three months ago i would've said tightening fed spread, restore monetary policy. it seems they feel the time pressure. a strong corporate earnings season. companies talking about price increases may accelerate that. jonathan: scott clemens there. it is the reality of the situation for central banks. inflation is surging off the back of what is happening with food and energy and in many places the labor markets have tightened as well. that is what the federal reserve faces. they believe the labor market is tight. as you pointed out, this move in sri lanka is a monster move. tom: why is it any different than the walmart wage move? this is a phrase that drives me nuts. people talk about conditions but they happen in real life with

real life consequences. i bring up sri lanka because i think we will see a lot more of those conditions. jonathan: all of these stories are so connected. to lisa's point, she said food prices are absently surging, and the epicenter of an election in france, that is at the epicenter of what is going on. does the cost of living, does the story of europe, the story around the world. lisa: how to central bankers respond to the fact wheat exports are not getting off the ground? you just have to print demand? do have to push consumers to do less when it comes to what they spend? if that is the case, what is the ramifications? with sri lanka it is a defending of the currency. how much does that come into play as you deal with inflation? jonathan: on friday -- tom: on friday humbled by the dedication of our listeners on radio and our viewers on tv.

someone emailed and ask if caroline connan was on the balcony in paris where lisa abramowicz was during covid. we all know lisa was ensconced in paris. jonathan: this has to be one of your buddies on twitter. definitely the same view from lisa's apartment window. tom: i am sorry, caroline connan in lisa's apartment. lisa: selling a five dollar plastic eiffel tower i will taped to my window. [laughter] tom: sunday night, france decides. jonathan: are you getting to fly out there? tom: i am hoping. jonathan: let's go to bramo's. lisa: i will have an eiffel tower. jonathan: tried to sell that to mrs. keene. lisa: i will provide the wine.

ritika: up-to-date with news from around the world. and ukraine officials say a missile attack on a railway station filled with refugees has killed thousands of people and we did at least 300. the station is on the eastern flank of the territory held by ukrainian forces. the war is entering a new phase. it is likely ukraine has just weeks to acquire and deploy new weapons for fighting in the eastern part of the country. the european union has targeted russia's crucial energy revenues. the block agreed to ban russian pole imports and japan will follow. the biggest round of sanctions since russia invaded ukraine. the band also includes a ban on russian traps and ships from entering the eu. the russian central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate. that is seen as a sign of confidence the central bank can reverse some of the monetary tightening imposed after the

invasion of ukraine. janet is counting on the support of corporate america for a global tax deal to help when passage in congress. big business is nowhere near backing the plan. bloomberg spoke to executives at eight u.s.-based multinational corporations. they say there is too much they do not know about the deal. next year, tesla will start production of the three vehicles that have fallen behind elon musk schedule. he revealed the plans at the opening of tesla's newest factory in austin, texas. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> everything that happens is very logical. it is a catharsis for the human rights council. i'm quite satisfied with the result. jonathan: that was ukrainian ambassador to the u.n. futures positive on the s&p and the nasdaq. on the alstom be -- on the s&p up .25%. yields up by three basis points on the 10 year to 2.6849. crude up 1%. going into an election, the

first round of the vote in france, euro weaker .2%. euro-dollar 1.0 861. it will be interesting to see. if there one thing i'm watching, dxy. we have not printed 100 yet, but we are right there. jonathan: close. tom: down 10,000. it is the benchmark. jonathan: do you have a cap for dxy 100? tom: i don't. we will do some merch. we have had a stunning week in discussing the western response to this horror in ukraine. we finish strong on this friday with kristina kvien, which is what america is about, when you come out of school and you join this strange thing called the foreign service. her first tour of duty was in paris, france.

she has spanned the world for the united states of america being a diplomat. she is the u.s. charged affairs to ukraine. what are the ramifications of all of this if russia not so much takes eastern ukraine, but takes the shores of the black sea? what will be our diplomatic response to something as shocking as their taking of odessa? kristina: first of all i would say russia's attack in the south of ukraine and also their blockage of the black sea is a significant barrier to trade, not just with ukraine but with other countries that are against the black seat. the economic costs are significant. the russian invasion of ukraine has not gone according to plan. i think they thought they might be able to take odessa within a

matter of weeks and that has not happened. russia has had to pull back from its central position in its approach on kyiv and so far they have not been able to take the city to the east of odessa and which has to be taken before they can take odessa. i would say does early to say russia would be able to take odessa given they have not succeeded so far. tom: i agree that is a fair statement. i will call you ambassador because of your years of public service. my colleague jonathan ferro asked of turkey, the black seat, the bosporus strait, what is the present relationship of mr. biden and mr. erdogan? kristina: president biden and president erdogan have a good relationship. they talk frequently and they talk about many important issues

turkey is part of. i would say turkey has been quite supportive of ukraine. president zelenskyy also has a good relationship with president erdogan, and turkey has been hosting some of the negotiations between ukraine and russia. turkey has been playing a positive role. as a nato ally and part of unified dado that stands against russian aggression, turkey has been supportive. lisa: there has been an ongoing conversation about the potential for a no-fly zone or more offense of weapons to ukraine. there has been a shift in the type of military weapons being given. how much do you consider this an escalation or do you think the line that determines escalation has shifted with what we saw out of bucha? kristina: i would say first of all is russia that is causing the escalation. what we are trying to do is help ukraine defend itself.

the ukrainian foreign minister has said to me more than once that any weapon that is used in ukraine to defend ukrainian territory is by its nature a defensive weapon. what we are doing now is taking all of ukraine's requests for various weapon systems and seeing how we can match them with what we have in stock and what we think ukraine could best use right now if we give it to them immediately. we've already given them a very large supply of anti-air, antitank, ammunition, defensive, things like body armor and other material. we are looking at further systems they will be able to use to help not just defend against russia, but repel them from the areas of ukraine they continue to occupy. lisa: you talk about trying to do it quickly and immediately. the foreign minister of ukraine

has been emphasizing the need for speed. how big is this window of time? kristina: we are concerned that president putin is not withdrawing but regrouping. when he regroups it is believed he may be making a heavy offensive in the east, perhaps in the donbas. it is a relatively short time ukraine has to make sure they are ready for that. since before the war we have been flowing weapons and ukraine. several months before the war we had seen what russia was starting to do, and we started to flow weapons and before the war started. after the war started we have flowed in even more. we are getting weapons to ukraine every day. however, ukraine needs as many as it can possibly get in we are doing our utmost to get them as much as we can. jonathan: what is the difference

between defensive and offense of weaponry? what is the difference? kristina: i would go back to the foreign minister's view that any weapon that is in ukrainian territory defending against attacks against ukraine is by nature a defensive weapon. jonathan: seems to be disagreement on that on the international stage. thank you for your hard work throughout all of this. kristina kvien, that is the focus for all of this. confusion as to what is defensive and what is offense of and the risk of escalatory steps along the way. tom: it is not that we have gone light on the tension, but there are so many other distractions. the tension into the weekend speaks to the tension in our various conversations this week. it is about what we project? great question on offense of an defensive. what do we project to assist

ukraine at this moment? jonathan: looking ahead and looking forward. we will do that with jan hatzius of goldman sachs. a recession call in the mix. need to get to that. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: good morning on tv and radio. rounding up the trading week with gains. we will see if this sticks going into the opening bell. treasuries up around a basis point. some drama on the week, higher around 30 basis points. the curve positive much of the week. the curve flatter this morning. looking ahead to next week, cpi next week. 8.4% is your median estimate, tom keene. tom: stunning statistic. the duration of the inflation. remember, it was going to go up and come back quickly. it was transitory? jonathan: good times.

tom: time is of importance. it is amazing in the housing economy to think of the housing dynamics and the prediction that the moonshot in housing would not end. that is where i first met the chief economist at goldman sachs. he owned the high ground on the last housing boom. we are going to talk about the goldman sachs call, the gloom of recession, and the labor economy. thank you for joining us. i want to go to labor. years ago when you were a young upstart at goldman sachs, go back further. your analysis on where we are with the strange labor economy goes back to the 1940's and 1950's. jonathan: that is right --. jan: that is right. if you look at the gap between the total number of jobs and workers where we have the most

overheated labor market going back to the early 1950's, that is great to see. 11 million open positions, 6 million unemployed workers. that 5 million gap is a record in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy. that is what the fed will be focused on. tom: politicians want unemployed america. what is wrong with an overheated labor economy? -- politicians want an employed america. jonathan: -- jan: with a 2% inflation target, you get higher inflation that erodes the real wage of workers. that is not in anybody's interest. right now, wages are growing in the 5% to 6% range. that is too fast.

jonathan: you think a recession is far from inevitable. but you are looking for severe deceleration in the economy. lay out where you think we will land here and in why you think the fed will be pushing up even with those numbers. jan: we are expecting a slowdown from 5.5% growth last year to just under 2% this year on a fourth-quarter two fourth-quarter basis. from av-shaped economy to something around the trend based. the fed will be pushing on because the labor market is overheated and inflation is too high. a very important reason it will be slower is the fed is trying to slow things down. jonathan: where is cpi at that point?

jan: cpi around 5%. for core pce, a little over 4.25%. well above the 2% target although lower than now because i think some inflation will come off as we go forward. jonathan: we should see a mechanical peak later this year. most people are looking for that. next year, what would you be looking for the next six to nine months? jan: if the economy does not slow and we do not get a substantial slow down in employment growth, you could be looking at something that could go higher to the 4% range. it could be significantly higher

if we see continued increases in the overheating. lisa: 4% terminal fed funds rate, when do you see that as a possibility? jan: i think 2023 is a possibility. our baseline is that by the middle of 20, we will be at a little over 3%. on the downside, if we get sharper tightening in financial conditions than they want. on the upside, if the economy stays stronger or you fail to get additional tightening in financial conditions. the goal is to stabilize the economy near full employment but not at an overheated rate.

lisa: do you agree with bill dudley fed has to cause stock prices to decline? jan: it has to be some combination. these things can be substitutable for one another. jonathan: i was looking at the rate called at goldman in terms of where treasuries will be. what would that mean? what does that mean? jan: they build in the call on the real economy and monetary policy. we have the funds rate a little over 3% and 10-year yields a little under 3%. yes, mild inversion. if you look at market pricing

for the federal funds rate, that already shows inversion. market pricing goes up a little over 3% and comes down to 2% late in 2023. the market is saying there is a meaningful risk of renewed rate cuts because the market sees meaningful risk of recession. jonathan: 3.5% is where the fed is that on labor markets. given what you expect, the deceleration you are looking for in the economy, the persistence of inflation as well, the work the fed needs to do, what do you see happening? how out of sync is the unemployment -- employment target? jan: we have the unemployment rate fall further despite the weaker growth forecast. 3.5% from the fed is already a little stale probably given we

are already down to 3.6% since the summary of economic projections was published. jonathan: you still expect unemployment to keep falling. doesn't that tell you they have to go higher with interest rates? jan: i think they do have to go higher with interest rates. jonathan: higher than you are anticipating. jan: possibly. it is not just about the unemployment rate. the overheating in the labor market, on the demand side, it is unemployment. it is also open positions, jobs, but open positions. we expect open positions will come down somewhat. in an ideal world, the fed would slow the economy to a degree that leads companies to delay or shelve some expansion plans, thereby bringing down the extremely high open positions without slowing it so much that you have substantial layoffs.

that is what you're shooting for. is that going to be available? is that what happens? we will have to see. i think it will require fancy footwork from the fed. lisa: i see why it is a narrow path to the soft landing. how high do rates go before there is recession? can we handle a 4% fed funds rate without recession in the united states? jan: i think the higher rates have to go, especially if rates have to go significantly higher, because you see even clearer signs of overheating the higher the recession was goes. if you go up to 4%, the risk is higher than in the 3% range. tom: the emails are coming in. the pandemic is over. one of the joys of the pandemic was going back and forth with no tie on. we need to know.

does solomon force you to wear a tie? is this the new solomon regime? jan: i want to celebrate i'm coming back into the office. it did not have anything to do with it. tom: there is your exclusive today with jan. jonathan: fantastic to get your thoughts on what the team is looking at. tom: we will have to get him back here as we move on into 2022. one of the great things is he owned the housing market last boom. i'm fascinated to know what his team sees in the coming months in the housing market that refuses to go down. jonathan: next year. you have 45 seconds. tom: when does the housing idiocy break? jan: i think it will slow. i think a lot of the weakness we are going to see, a lot of the slowdown will be a decline in demand.

supply is a much more significant constraint. tom: i agree. huge issue. jonathan: that is my gift to you going into the weekend. tom: that is good. jonathan: it is a special friendship you and i have. tom: i am more interested in -- jonathan: we have the australian grand prix, looking forward to that. we have the big game on sunday. formula one. and we have the masters as well. that is what you are still calling on australian airline. tom: we were polite. we did not ask if he agrees with deadly. good form. lisa: i think i did ask. jonathan: pretty sure lisa asked. tom: she was delicate. jonathan: you two are so low without me next week. have fun. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. the war in ukraine is entering a new phase six weeks after putin launched the invasion. ukraine may have weeks to obtain new weapons for eastern fighting in the country. dozens of refugees were killed today after russians allegedly fired a missile at a train station. global food prices are rising at the fastest pace ever. the war in ukraine has choked off supplies leading to panic about shortages of key staples. according to the united nations, food prices rose 13% last month. in costa rica, a jet broke in two after its get off the runway. two pilots escaped without serious injuries. they reported hydraulic problems with the 757 moments after takeoff but returned to the

airport. spirit airlines has agreed to have talks with jetblue over the takeover bid. spirit says the offer could lead to a superior proposal. jetblue topped the offer from frontier which spirit accepted two months ago. elon musk will join the twitter ceo at a company meeting next week to address employee questions. the world's richest person revealed he had taken a major stake in twitter. the meeting is to ease concerns about the impact musk will have. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are in the middle of adjusting monetary policy from the accommodative stance towards

a neutral setting. by the end of the year, early next year, depending on the pace. tom: mr. evans of chicago, one of my favorite people on the practice of economics in a very unusual time. next week, we will dive into further economic data, including inflation, and onto the fed meeting. next week, the ecb meeting which i am sure evans will be paying full attention to. we digress now. lisa and i do this with a divorce therapist from the kennedy space center at cape canaveral. there will be a launch at 11:00 a.m. we will launch private citizens up into a five-bedroom house where the aggrieved go to one end of the house and the others are at the other end of the house. these astronauts today, these private citizens, are going to

fly up to a russian-u.s. spat. how ugly is it? ed: pretty ugly. the reality is because of the conflict in ukraine, tensions between the u.s. and russia are not good. you are sending four private citizens up, three paid $55 million a pop for a seat. i asked, will they visit the russians? she said they might have dinner at the russian half. how it stands currently is the three russian cosmonauts would have to extend an invitation to these four private citizens for that to happen, which is a strange state of intergalactic affairs. tom: one of the great niceties of our early nasa programs where we had military and neil armstrong, are the people of u.s. and russia astronauts all

military? ed: they are astronauts. nasa has a firm view that a board i.s.s., whatever is happening on earth, that does not happen. the tension comes from here on earth. the head of the russian space agency said saturday that the economic and trade sanctions on russia are so bad that if the u.s. does not ease or withdraw them, russia will pull out of the i.s.s., an agreement in place since 1998. behind that, russia is the biggest financial contributor to i.s.s. nasa contributes about $4 billion of taxpayer money annually. russia is not far behind. the greater concern is if we did get escalation, russia could literally pull out of i.s.s. in other words, undock their modules from the station. one of the key russian modules

provides the propulsion that help i.s.s. reorient to the altitude above earth. nasa officials are putting on a brave face. lisa: how is this situation complicated by the fact the astronauts being brought up our through spacex, a private operation? ed: i have spoken to a few spacex officials and nasa officials. it is an opportunity for spacex. they are the carrier of choice. the only carrier other than the rocket from russia that can reach the i.s.s. and take human life. the mission costs nasa a lot to do this. axiom, which i would describe as a travel agent, if spacex is the airline, axiom is the travel agent that arranged for private citizens to go up. from nasa's point of view, they

brokered this with the long-term goal of the private sector taking the cost burden away so in the future they don't have to worry about this because it will be the private sector that not only provides the launch as spacex is doing but also provides the space station and brokers seats for high net worth individuals that want to go. lisa: can you put the space exploration into context? some people are conflating space tourism with the privately funded satellites and other aspects key to surveillance and modern technological advancement. how much are some of these privately operated missions going toward the satellite aspect and not just tourism? ed: i love that question. on the screen and for radio listeners, this is the launch pad from which man first went to the moon. this is the first all-private

crew aboard. the russians have taken private citizens up but they have been accompanied by russian state astronauts, for example. the long-term ambition is to have laboratories in space run by the private sector to make use of data generated in the private sector so that nasa does not have to put $4 billion a year into the lower orbit program and can use the money into going to mars. i nuked tom keene is raising his eyebrows -- i know that tom keene is raising his eyebrows. nasa wants to move resources from lower orbit and move it deep into our galaxy. tom: where do we stand on manned versus unmanned budgeting? ed: there is a commitment from nasa for manned budgeting. the i.s.s. isn't commission until 20 -- in commission until 2031 when it will be decommissioned.

axiom is not just short-term taking people up space. they are building their own space station. we have a new order to spacex for more crew missions beyond those scheduled for this year and more cargo missions. it is a significant annual budget of taxpayer money. tom: terrific brief. thank you. incredible up to speed. i cannot tell you the authority mr. ludlow brings to the modern space effort. what is great about the space station is they don't have to dump it into the sea. you can put the kids at one end of the space station and you at the other and there are like 14 bathrooms and six bedrooms. the thing is large. it is like a george clooney movie. lisa: if they misbehave, you press the booster and send them closer to mars. fantastic. with a one-way ticket to get there in nine months.

it is fascinating given it is the international space station with questions about the russians participating and what they did with their uniforms. it highlights the public profile of explorations in name and substance. tom: ed had a good window into the managing of the message and the tensions out there. what an extraordinary week. it sets us up for the earnings of the man who writes the 44-page letter. lisa: jamie dimon on wednesday. 2.7% on the 10-year yield, driven by inflation-adjusted yields. basically, the fed is seen as moving away, taking a more hawkish stance, looking towards a more restrictive policy. tom: one of my looking at sunday evening and monday morning?

dollar dynamics to see where the yen is. we will know that sunday, as we will know the future of the masters as well. please stay with us. much good conversation today on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

jonathan: setting you up for a massive week ahead, good morning. futures paid on the s&p. the countdown to the open starts right now.

announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. >> the job of orchestrating a soft landing. >> trying so hard. >> the fed knows it is late. >> they need to normalize as quickly as possible. >> the fed's path to a soft landing has narrowed. >> the fed has to choose between one of two mistakes. >> there is a risk the fed under tight ends. >> go too fast or slow. >> what is worse? >> it seems unlikely we will be able to avoid a harder landing.