tv Bloomberg Real Yield Bloomberg April 8, 2022 1:00pm-1:30pm EDT
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the confirmation process i had the distinct honor of having 95 personal meeting with 97 sitting senators. we had a substantive and engage in conversation about my approach to judging and the role of judging in the constitutional system we love. as a brief aside, i will note these are subjects about which i care deeply. i have dedicated my career to public service, because i love this country and our constitution and the rights that make us free. i also understand from my many years of practice as a legal advocate, a trial judge, and a judge on the court of appeals, that part of the genius of the constitutional framework of the united states is its design. the framers entrusted the judicial branch with the crucial but limited role.
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i have also spent the better part of the past decade hearing thousands of cases and writing hundreds of opinions. in every instance, i have done my level best to stay in my lane and reach a result consistent with my understanding of the law and with the obligation to rule independently without fear over favor. i am humbled and honored to continue in this fashion as an associate justice of the supreme the united states working with brilliant colleagues, supporting and defending the constitution, and steadfastly upholding the rule of law. [applause] but today at this podium, my mission is far more modest. i am simply here to give my heartfelt thanks to the category
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of folks largely responsible for me being here at this moment. first, of course, there is my family. mom and dad thank you, not only for traveling back here on what seemed like a moments notice, but for everything you have done and continue to do for me. my brother is here as well. you have always been an inspiration to me as a model of public and bravery. i thank you for that. i love you all very much. [applause] to my in-laws pamela and gardner and jackson who are here today, and my sisters in law and brothers in law, william and dana and natalie, thank you for your love and support. to my daughter's talia and leila , i bet you never thought you would get to skip school by spending a day at the white house. [laughter]
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this is exciting for me as well but nothing has brought me greater joy than being your mother. i love you very much. patrick, thank you for everything you have done. for me over these past 25 years of our marriage. you have done everything to support and encourage me and it is you who has made this moment possible. [applause] your steadfast love gave me the courage to move in this direction. i do not know that i believed you when you said i could do this but now i do. [laughter] [applause] and for that i am forever grateful. let me also briefly mention the huge extended family, both patrick and my own, watching this from all over the country and world.
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thank you for supporting me. i hope to be able to connect with you personally in the coming weeks and months. moving on briefly to the second category of people that warrant special recognition, those who have provided invaluable support to me professionally in the decades prior to my nomination and the many many friends i have been privileged to make throughout my life and career. i know that everyone who finds professional success thinks they have the best mentor. but i truly do. i had three inspiring jurists for whom i had the privilege of clerking. each of them is an exceptional public servant and i could not have had better role models for thoughtfulness, integrity, honor, and principal, both by word and deed. by clerkship with justice breyer in particular was an
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extraordinary gift and one for which i have only become more grateful with each passing year. justice breyer's commitment to an independent impartial judiciary is unflagging and for him the rule of law is not merely a duty, it is his fashion. i am daunted by the prospect of having to follow in his footsteps. i would count myself lucky indeed to be able to do so with even the smallest amount of his wisdom, grace, and joy. the exceptional mentorship of the judges for whom i have clerked has proven exceptional for me as my -- during the past decade of service as a judge. that service has been a unique opportunity. for that i must also thank
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president obama who put faith in me by dominating me to my first judicial role on the district court. this brings me to my colleagues and staff of the federal district court in washington dc and the d.c. circuit. thank you for everything. i am grateful for your wisdom and cattle tested friendship through the years. -- battle tested friendship through the years. i also want to thank my law clerks, many of whom are here today, who have carved out time and space to accompany me on this professional journey. i'm grateful to jennifer who has been by my side since nearly the outset of my time on the bench. and thomas, promise not to leave me as we take this last big step. to the many other good friends i have had the good fortune to have made throughout the year
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from my neighborhood going up, -- growing up, from miami palmetto senior high school and especially the debate team, from my days at harvard college where i met my beloved roommates, truly my sisters. to my time at harvard law school and the many professional experiences i have been blessed to have since graduation, thank you. i have too many friends to name. but please know how much you have meant to me and how much i have appreciated the smiles, the hugs, and the many at a girls that have propelled me to this day. finally i would like to give special thanks to the white house staff and a special assistance who provided invaluable assistance to help me navigate the confirmation process. my trusted sherpa senator ted
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jones was an absolute godsend. [applause] he was an absolute godsend. he is not only the best storyteller you would ever want to meet, but also unbelievably popular on the hill, which helps a lot. i am standing here today in no small part due to the hard work of the brilliant folks who interact with the legislature and the other stakeholders on behalf of the white house. [applause] [laughter] [applause] i am also particularly grateful for the awe-inspiring leadership of white house counsel data
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riemann. -- dana read men. page, and ron. -- dana, paige, and ron. they led an extraordinarily talented team of white house staffers in the herculean effort required to ensure i was well prepared for the rigors of this process and in record time. thank you all. [applause] thank you as well to the many, many kindhearted people from all over this country and around the world who have reached out to me directly in recent weeks with messages of support. i have spent years toiling in the relative solitude of my chambers with just my law clerks
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in isolation. it has been somewhat overwhelming in a good way to recently be flooded with thousands of notes, cards, and photos expressing just how much this moment means to so many people. the notes i have received from children are particularly cute and especially meaningful. more than anything they speak directly to the hope and promise of america. it has taken 232 years and 115 prior appointments for way -- for a black woman to be selected to serve on the supreme court of the united states. [applause] but, we have made it . [applause] we have made it, all of us, all
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of us. [applause] and, our children are telling me that they have seen it more than ever that here in america, anything is possible. [applause] they also tell me that i am a role model, which i take both as an opportunity and a huge responsibility. i am feeling up to the task, primarily because i know i am not alone. i am standing on the shoulders of my own role models, generations of americans who never had anything close to this time -- kind of opportunity, but who got up every day and went to work but leaving -- believing in
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the promise of america, showing others through their determination and, yes, their perseverance that good, good things can be done in this great country. for my grandparents on both sides, with only a grade school education, but instilled in my parents the importance of learning, to my parents, who went to racially segregated schools growing up and where the first in their families to have the chance to go to college, i am also -- product -- college. i am also ever buoyed by the leadership of generations past who help to fight the way, -- lie to the way dr. -- light the way, dr. martin luther king junior, thurgood marshall, and
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constance baker motley. they did the heavy lifting that made this day possible. for all of the talk of this historic nomination and now confirmation i think of them as the true path breakers. i am just very lucky first inheritor of the dream of liberty and justice for all. [applause] to be sure i have worked hard to get to this point in my career and i have now achieved something far beyond anything my grandparents could have possibly ever imagined. but no one does this on their own.
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investors are looking at fundamentals and briefing for a slowdown in growth but it does not seem like the market is incorporating a resent mary -- a recessionary time at this time. david: there are people who think it is either or. is it? amanda: i don't think so. i think that is exactly what the situation is. i think that, you know, we have had over 20% and two growth over the last two years. there has been a huge accommodation on the part of the fed. when you get runaway inflation, monetary accommodation combined with supply shocks, i think obviously some of the supply shocks will clean up by destroying demand, some of the inflation but the federal reserve will have to throw some people out of work. i agree with economists who are saying that you will not really
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get relief from the wage price spiral until you see unemployment begin to loosen a little. it's a very tough choice for the fed. that's what bill dudley thinks as well. he said one thing is certain. to be effective it will have to reflect more losses on stock and bonds. we will get to the balance sheets in a moment. do you agree with bill dudley the former new york fed president that to be clear, to be certain, to be effective, it will have to reflect more losses on stock and bond investors and it has so far? marcus: we agree with that especially on the fixed income side. in particular, real interest rates have to rise further. we'll interest rates now are still quite accommodative. tenure rates have moved a lot this weekend we think there is further upside there. we think the fed needs to take real rates at the front end of the curve into a place where
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they are finally restricted area the fed -- restricted. the fed is a long way from that today. they need inflation to come down and rate hikes to kick in to get real tightening of editions. we think there are headwinds to risk assets and real interest rates probably need to rise further to bring this about. john: i asked people, can you tell me what qt means for the market? they will tell me, i do not know what that means for the market. mark: i do not have a lot of conviction we have seen fed hawkish in us because we know the fed tends to overshoot in these environments. they miss early signs of slowdown and keep tightening through high front-end interest rates and qt. the fed does not have a lot of confidence in how qt impacts the
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real economy. we have heard estimates from powell and others on the fed that qt might be worth one and 25 basis points of rate rise or maybe 50 points but they do not really know. this is a fairy -- a fed that is , like powell said in 2018, walking in a dark room, feeling its way around as it approaches neutral knowing that rate hikes rmp at -- impacting the front and and qt is impacting liquidity, like in the back and likely the financial conditions but they do not know how to calibrate those so the risk of an overshoot in our view is high. john: amanda, you have -- throw in everything the market -- that marked cabana is speaking about, throw in credit and cash. can you tell me how cash competes with credit in your mind at the moment? amanda: absolutely. from a relative value
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perspective we believe that as rates rise on the front end, cash is coming back as an investable asset class option. it reduces the value proposition of bonds and paper. you have to be careful in terms of an erosion of a value proposition going forward. our global portfolio strategy has underweight to credit. with credit we have overweight to high yield on the u.s. market. in the european market we are more defensive. i still expect underperformance at the front end and outperformance at the long end. jonathan code on your underweight sacred tools -- jonathan: you are underweight cyclicals and industrials. can you talk to me about what you are overweight? laird: we feel the same way
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about credit. it was worth buying a couple weeks ago when spreads got to 130. it has tightened since then. we don't understand why. we have been selling. we think agency mortgages, your fannie mae's, your jenny mays have get in to the point where it is worth dipping a toll in. --toe in. prices are low and spreads are pretty wide and they are obviously frontrunning the news of portfolio sales. as it relates to qt, the fed broke things in 2018 doing qt. they will probably break different things this time. in these tightening cycles they blow things up along the way that are probably meant to be blown up. but there will be lots of volatility. i think for opportunistic
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investors there will be lots of trips higher in spreads in different asset classes that you will be able to take advantage of. jonathan: can you take me back to 2018 and tell me what you mean by they will break different things this time. we all remember what happened with high yield spreads december of 2018. when you said things broke then and different things will break this time come up what do you mean? lair: the funding market, they put mechanisms in place where it probably will not be the funding market that breaks during qt this time. it may be any other market that we cannot predict in advance. but i think this is an experienced -- experiment, the whole quantitative tightening, quantitative easing, we are still in the early days and this is a second attempt at it. my guess is when we pull liquidity back we will find areas and mechanisms of the
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market where the tide goes out and people are not wearing their bathing suits. jonathan: the caps we got from the fed minutes this week and how that influences your thoughts now versus what you expected before. mark: we were disappointed in terms of what the fed announced on qt. we thought they would treat their bill portfolio differently and allow for a faster overall runoff. after the minutes this week we ratcheted down expectations on how much balance sheet shrinkage we would get this year to about 650 billion. that is due to the treatment of the bill portfolio. there will be a more aggressive approach to qt in 2023 and 2024 then we previously sought. -- a thought. the fed will be more gradual moving into this. but there is a lot of liquidity coming out.
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this year alone given our expectations of a 650 liquidity trend, that is almost equivalent to what they did at the last episode of qt. these are very sizable numbers. in just seven months this year you are likely to replicate what you had over the course of a year in -- a year-and-a-half over the last episode. jonathan: thank you. we had to interrupt the program for a historical moment so thank you for the patient's -- patience. that does it for us. number real yield will be back next week -- bloomberg real yield will be back next week. this is bloomberg.
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court justice judge ketanji brown jackson as a historic milestone for women and people of color. speaking at the white house alongside judge jackson and vice president kamala harris president biden said this without so much sunshine on so many young women, so many young black women, so many minorities. the u.k. and germany are putting aside differences over imposing tougher sanctions on moscow in a show of unity for ukraine. the nations say they will send the war-torn nation more weapons and work to ramp up pressure on russian president vladimir putin. after talks on downing street with british prime minister boris johnson german chancellor olaf scholz spoke to reporters. >> we are trying to send those rapids -- weapons that are helpful. we will continue to do that. > th -- successes by the ukrainian military
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