♪ >> part of the reason why growth is going to be slower is that the fed is trying to slow things down. >> the fed seems to be a little more concerned about inflation then i would anticipate. >> there seems to be a concern about a slowdown. >> demand needs to be slow. it is simple supply and demand here. >> i don't think the market has made up its mind whether it is going to be a recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. mr. ferro on well-deserved sabbatical. kailey leinz doing double duty this morning. thank you for joining us this morning, on radio and tv. with the news flow, the inflation report tomorrow come our trip to washington scheduled for thursday.

you know what? the markets matter, and they are moving. lisa: and it is not just. the imf on. thursday we also have the -- not just the imf on thursday. we also have the ecb meeting. we see the 10 year yield in the united states reaching the highest levels since the heart of the pandemic. but it is also german yields, the highest since 2015. just to put into perspective how significant this move is, at one point we were talking about negative yields in germany on the 10 year early in march, and now talking about almost 0.8%. tom: i'm not going to sit on a data check right now. we will do that in a bit. but the 10 year yield is front and center this morning. wow, have we come to a smaller negative statistic. lisa: is this because of the balance sheet discussion we got in the minutes? why the sudden move? what do you think is driving it? oil prices have come down because of concern about the growth slowdown in china and.

lockdowns in places like shanghai. . is it technical? is it people capitulating? tom: the rate of change here is really critical. part of this is the rate of change of our international relations. maria tadeo in luxembourg with foreign ministers, annmarie hordern in washington. it is a movable feast focused on the war in ukraine. kailey: a war that continues to intensify as ukraine is now warning of russia reinforcing its position in the east, really fighting for the east after moving out of part of the north of the country. it raises the question of the western response. obviously ukraine has asked for more weapons. the west says they will deliver. but on the sanctions front, how much are we running out of cards to play? europe yet to play the gas card, but that is a conversation they are still having. tom: mr. biden to meet with mr. modi by zoom today. maybe it is presidential zoom, i don't know.

some real tension there. complexities in the india relationship. let me do a data check right now. we want to get lisa's brief in, and then we have a wonderful guest on how to reset second-quarter in truly the cacophony we see right now. futures -15 on the vix. we quote the dow for jon ferro. let's call that 1500 points away from nerve on a. the yield is the story, two point 57% 10 year, 2.76% i should say. twos-tens goes to inversion after a positive 17 basis points. oil just under $100 on brent crude as well. the foreign exchange market speaks volumes with euro on a tear versus yen as well. lisa: i want to offer up a clarification. we are talking about jon as though he is on sabbatical. he's just taking vacation for

the week. i don't want anyone to think he's off for the next month or something, lest they be confused by tom's sabbatical talk. today we get a host of fed speakers coming out and talking about how they are going to navigate what is becoming an increasingly tricky moment. raphael bostic, christopher waller speaking at an event at 9:30 a.m., then charlie evans speaking at a separate event. how much will they talk about that move in real yields, the fact that we are nearly 11 basis points away from zero? we are still negative, considering how high the expectation for inflation is. how much does this actually give them some hope that they are being effective when they have not raise rates by that much, and frankly they have not started rolling off the balance sheet? we talk about the balance sheet as if it is something massive, which will be. however, we are still at $9 trillion.

-- will visit vladimir putin in neutral. -- in russia. even though this is a neutral country, they are concerned about the humanitarian crisis in ukraine. how much does this shift to a more aggressive stance by a lot of european nations? tom: this is important because austria has the huge weight of russian energy. this is a real nuanced change. lisa: especially given the fact that they continue to buy oil and gas. this is one of the main points of contention among foreign ministers meeting in luxembourg today. president biden is meeting virtually on zoom with indian prime minister narendra modi. how much is their increased pressure to really get some of the quiet allies to speak up and declare which side they are on, given the fact that we have not heard anything decisive and aggressive out of india, basically castigating russia for

their war in ukraine? tom: i will try to get this story out on twitter. reporting from india from bloomberg news, really lays out beautifully the nuances here of china, india, and the united states, and india and russia as well. there is a real complexity to this story. right now on the complexities of all of the economic babble we talk about and what does it mean actually to construct strategy, tom kennedy joins us now, chief investment strategist at j.p. morgan private bank. the are thrilled he could join us this morning. how do you take the cacophony right now and distill it down to the new short-term for long-term money? how far out is short-term for j.p. morgan private bank? thomas: good morning. short-term for us is probably three to six months, and over that period we are most concerned about the fed's

dual mandate. they have a very tight labor market then makes it hard to believe that more inflation can roll in the near term, and they also have on the inflation side persistently high inflation that calls into question if inflation fighting credibility is at risk here and if true entrenchment is here. so it looks like a fed that has to fight the world from the top side. that is the first time they really had to do that in many decades. lisa: on wednesday we get earnings kicking off with your bank. i understand you are probably not involved with drafting those. however, it is going to be a very awkward moment for all of these companies as they deliver potentially really good earnings , and frankie for the federal reserve. if they surprise to the upside with respect to margins that hold in, what does the fed do? thomas: the question on margins is important because you have the ability to pass on, which is good for corporate earnings, but from a challenge fed who really

needs to slow demand. the real question we are all asking is how high do rates really need to go to slow down this economy, and assuming place and expectations can remain anchored, we really should start to question if that is happening right now. you can look at market internals. three things you can look at. market internals so far. yes, the index level is still near historic highs, but financial, housing forming poorly. next you can look to the bond market. the market is pricing that the fed will get to 3.25% next year, and that for the next two years they will stay at two point 5%. so very optimistic price. lastly, look at the housing market, the most cyclical piece of the u.s. economy. the average american walks into a bank right now, they are going to get a 30 year mortgage north of 5%, almost 2% higher than what is existing in the market now. this is to me the most important

question. kailey: you mentioned how high rates need to go to cool off the economy. let's mention how high they need to go to cool down the equity market anymore material way. if end when it goes positive, is tina dead? thomas: i don't think so. i don't think there's anything magical about the negative interest rate conversation. real rates should continue to go higher. i tend to focus most on the five-year-five-year. those real rates are already positive. the problem for the fed is that inflation expectations out that far are still very high, so this conversation about peak hawkish in us from the fed, we need to see spot inflation rollover before that can happen, and we really need to start to see five-year-five-year inflation expectations rollover so that inflation fighting credibility remains intact. tom: very good.

tom kennedy, thank you so much, with j.p. morgan private bank. we really have not touched on it today, but mr. musk i guess is not joining the twitter board. the soap opera. lisa: it is just hilarious. after proposing that they turn their headquarters into a homeless shelter, and people weren't exact lee sure whether he was serious or not, and twitter took it on its face value and basically said, what does he want from this involvement? he said he would take a passive stake. then twitter offers him a seat on the board, saying we value your opinion, trying to get ahead of him so he wasn't the enemy from outside. he rejected that. so what is he going to do with this stake? tom: i'm speechless. help me here. why does he have a different rulebook than everybody else? i don't get it. kailey: i don't know if anyone knows the answer to that question. he is the richest man in the world, so you have to keep that in mind. tom: i don't agree with that. kailey: on paper?

tom: i do not agree with that claim back to the securities exchange act of 1934 and 1933 as well. if we had that attitude back then, we would still be in the depression. kailey: fairpoint. but it does raise the question of whether there would be some kind of regulatory headwind for elon musk being on the board of twitter and owning such a large stake in it. if he joins the board he was going to be capped at 14.9%. if he's not on the board, that is no longer the case, and it raises the question of whether he is thinking of more of a stake or outright acquisition. lisa: acquisition? how does that fit into -- what, you can go to space and you can also tweet? [laughter] tom: he's got his own rulebook. that is what i know for certain. we will continue. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning.

ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy expects russia to turn to more large-scale action this week in the eastern part of the country. he has been warning for days of a new russian offensive. he said he understands there will be much more russian weaponry then there is now. it is another twist in the saga of twitter and elon musk. twitter says the world's richest person has decided not to join its board. that touched off new speculation as to the company's future. musk owns just over 9% of twitter stock. if he does not joins the -- does not when the board, he would not be subject to keeping the stake below 14%.

a rerun of a 2017 contest that will reverberate across europe. the runoff will be april 24. three polls show macron leading le pen. the iran nuclear deal is alive, but lingering in the emergency room. the fate is resting on a decision by the u.s. on iran's latest proposal. one of the issues is the trump eras designation of is ron -- other ron -- of iran's islamic revolutionary guard is a terrorist group. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have the feeling that president putin is throwing all of his might into the east of the country. we have to end this humanitarian disaster and make them understand that he is i who leading russia, that this war is a war he cannot win -- he is isolating russia, that this war is a war he cannot win morally. he has already lost. tom: this is going to be a big deal.

maria tadeo with us in luxembourg, and in washington, annmarie hordern. get out the map. india is miles from moscow, but it is not because it does not border, but it touches upon the -stans, to giga stan -- to chic a stan -- tajikistan and giga stan -- and cared to stan -- and kyrgyzstan. annmarie: one of the reasons why india is in this difficult position making sure they are not openly condemning what is

going on, you saw what they did last week in abstaining again at the united nations when the rest of the world wants to revoke russia out of the human rights council. what you have is an india that is very reliant on russia, and united states that needs india to also be a counter to china in the region. tom: maria tadeo, when we were children in america, we played the game "risk," which was the global map and the complexities that children would do. that is what we are living right now. who is driving the western bus this morning? who is the voice in charge of directing the western response to mr. putin? maria: it is very difficult to say because we don't hear from olaf scholz, who is criticized perhaps for not sending weapons ftse enough. mario draghi is trying to get a

domestic deal for gas. emmanuel macron is in the midst of a two week reelection campaign. a lot of this shows you that the war in ukraine is a number one issue at this point, but there's also the domestic agenda. the domestic agenda is amplified by the inflation we are seeing, the prices we are seeing. the question at this point, and mario draghi was very good with this, he said we say we are committed to help ukraine, but we need to figure out how much we are willing to pay for it. do we want to have air conditioning, or do we want to have peace? there's many voices also distracted by the domestic agenda. lisa: to build on that, boris johnson visited kyiv, and he is now being compared to weston churchill -- to winston churchill. is this the reality on the ground in terms of support, or does this not necessarily play in the same political way at home amid increasing prices for everything from food to gas?

maria: that is a very good point because at home, he's under a lot of difficulties, and we know why. in ukraine, boris johnson, they love him. they love the fact that he went there, that he walked around in the city. they love the language that he uses when he says vladimir putin will be defeated. we are going to give the weapons that ukraine needs to defend themselves. that moment in which he walks around with zelenskyy, that went down in ukraine very well. he's very good when it comes to working a crowd. so you could look at this as points that he is trying to score at home, where there's many issues happening, but in ukraine, this moment in which the two are walking around went viral, and it went down very well. kailey: let's talk about the russian side. there's a new man in charge on the ground in syria. he has been called the butcher of syria, now in charge of operations in ukraine. he was known for his history of targeting civilians. the white house has promised a

severe response to the use of chemical or biological weapons. do we have any more of a sense of what that would actually look like, considering how many cards the administration has already played? annmarie: we don't. the president, when asked what these would look like, he said they are not going to communicate that in the public. when i was at the nato headquarters and spoke to the latvian president, he said leaders did discuss what those consequences would be, and at the moment, he thought maybe they should broadcast that to the kremlin, but at the moment, there was not going to be such a strategy. when you are looking at this new general, he has been called the butcher of syria. he was leading the russian army when they decided to enter the war. he really turned the tide for assad. not only that, but poor -- not only that, before he was now this new general in ukraine, his focus was always south and

eastern ukraine. he is already regarded in russia as a hero. he was called a russian federation hero after his work in syria. the united states said over the weekend, we heard from jen psaki, the national security advisor, we can expect more of the same, which is likely going to be meaning the targeting of civilians. tom: thank you very much. i want to turn back to the markets, and i'm focused on yield. there's no question about that. the 10 year yield. mike wilson, the weekend reading, i thought morgan stanley was something with a 4.6% earnings growth. he just flat out comes out and says growth will disappoint. lisa: growth will disappoint given the flak that -- given the fact that it will ease to margins. certainly you are seeing a

feeling of that in the market today. is the bigger story potentially earnings, and if there is a disappointment, is that really going to be such bad news, or is the story really the fed? what we are seeing is that moving yields hitting the equity markets, and what you're seeing particularly in big tech stocks. tom: i look at michael feroli's jp morgan note friday evening, and he talks about the wedge in what we look at for inflation. there's 14 ways to look at inflation. i'm going to suggest the answer is higher. kailey: when you look at the components of inflation, wages is something mike wilson also brought up because when we talk about companies that need to pass on higher costs, among those higher costs or labor costs, having to pay employees more. when we talk about the potential of a wage price spiral, lisa has a thought on that. tom: welcome to the show, kailey. lisa: honestly, isn't it good? don't we want to see wages go

up? at what point is it negative? if they don't go it quickly enough, consumers don't have buying power. tom: you cut off kailey at 7:25. feel good about it. she would have cut off ferro at 6:02. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: "bloomberg surveillance," we say good morning to all of you. we will get to this with marilyn watson in a moment. yields move with a vengeance. on the 10 year yield, 2.75%. the inversion is gone. we've got 18 basis points of a positive yield differential between the 10-year and the two-year. the clarion call this morning is the 10 year real yield. lisa: absolutely, given the fact that we are at the least negative going back to the heart of the pandemic. i am keeping my eye on crude. the idea that you're getting a 4.3% decline in wti crude prices really gives you a feeling of all the wrong reasons. the reason why we are seeing a decline is not because of the conflict -- not because the

conflict has been resolved. it is because of china and's there. how much do we see a slow down there in addition to supply chain disruptions? tom: really want to emphasize within the data check, let me focus on currency. currency is a resilient dollar near 100 on dxy. rounded up to ¥126. weaker yen is a huge story this morning. maybe macron doing better off of the french election. kailey: we have to talk about one of the individual corporate stories we are watching this morning, and that is twitter. this saga continues, and it seems like there's a new development every day. elon musk now an active 9% stakeholder in the company, will not be joining the board. that gives him clearance to build a stake greater than 14.9% if he wants to. the question becomes what exactly are his ambitions with this company.

could we be talking about a takeover? shares were down as much as a percent in premarket trading, now off about 1.7 percent. another company in elon musk's control, tesla. it is down 4.7%, but commanding lofty multiples. that puts pressure on some of those growth stocks, including nvidia, down about 3%. it was also cut to neutral over at baird. it is trading at $224 this morning. it is not just u.s. stocks lower. chinese stocks were under a lot of pressure in the asian session. some of those players are lower in early hours. then more news on share splits. shopify now doing a tender one stock split. that is not really change the fundamentals of the company, and yet it seems to give a lift to the shares. final note on wells fargo, which will be reporting on thursday, was upgraded to a buy at citi.

the drumbeat to wall street results goes on. tom: our interview of the day on yield, and it is yield up and decidedly price down. marilyn watson is head of global fundamental fixed income strategy at blackrock, and has a wonderful view of this strange idea is not just about yield. it is about price as well. i just took the 10 year series back to the time of volker, and we have lower yields and higher prices of five standard deviations in the pandemic scare to low yields. we are up only one standard deviation off that long-term moderation. can you and blackrock say that the great moderation is over? marilyn: i don't think that yet we can say the great moderation is necessarily over. i think what we are seeing now

is a period of correction, having had incredibly suppressed yield going back several years now, and exacerbated during the pandemic. i think what we are really seeing now is an increase in volatility, market positioning itself for the fed to be more aggressive in terms of quantitative tightening, and terms of raising interest rates, and the runoff and the balance sheet that potential he will come in may or june. i think as we start to see the fed shift away and try to move towards a neutral point, it is understandable that we are seeing a lot more volatility in the market. i think when we continue to look at inflation, just how high it is in the u.s. and around the world, there are a number of factors exacerbating this, whether it be the lockdown in china and shanghai due to covid restrictions, whether it is energy and the massive impact that is having in europe in

particular. i think there's a whole confluence of factors exacerbating the volatility in yields, and the market expedition of what we can see from interest rates, from the fed, and from the ecb as we go forward this year. lisa: early this morning, tom kennedy of jp morgan ask, how high do yields have to go to restrain inflation? what is your view on that? marilyn: at the moment we do think that rates could go a bit higher from here. it is our view that inflation will probably start to roll over pretty soon. it is often at very high levels, but given base effect that come into play, we think inflation will start to take down, but obviously from incredibly high levels. i think that is why the fed indicated it will be more aggressive. think that is why the ecb has started to signal may be ending its asset purchase program in

the third quarter of this year, and potentially raise rates as well by the end of this year. i do think rates could go higher from here, but we also need to keep a firm i on inflation. i think the risks are huge. there are risks in terms of pushing inflation higher if we start to see issues around restrictions in china, energy, elsewhere, or we could start to see inflation rollover. part of the equation is growth. there's a large risk now around the growth in the euro zone. that is certainly a factor that would come into play as we look at what the ecb will do this year, but when you look at the u.s. as well. growth remains relatively strong. the labor market is incredibly tight. also continuing to see the consumer and the high level of household savings they still have, they start to bring those down as we see retail sales and other things, i did -- other

things, and it depends on retail sentiment. but i think growth remains relatively solid given the u.s., and inflation data is absolutely critical now. lisa: in the wall of worry you talked about, the potential increase in inflation, potential slowdown in growth, what do you do? how much do you lean into a risk at a time when people are already somewhat bearish? i would just say people. i'm not going to specify. [laughter] marilyn: we have been short duration. now i would say we are neutral, relatively low duration. but i think now, given that the risks are two-sided, we are being very flexible. we ask to get a little more carry in front end rates. we like investment grade. the other is to be very diversified. we are relatively conservative at the moment in the next two months, when we see further

inflation data, data around growth, development ongoing around the situation in ukraine, the impact of sanctions. i think there's a lot that still needs to be factored in. i think there are areas now where we can see value start to get some yield, and i think diversification is the name of the game, but also really understanding liquidity, the risk-reward and the liquidity around each position we currently hold. kailey: you talk about the geopolitical risk factors that need to be in the equation. what about domestic politics, thinking specifically of france? i'm looking at the 10 year yield that started march around 40 basis points, now around 129. what would happen to the french bond market if marine le pen were to win the runoff? marilyn: we have seeing a lot of volatility around france,

and the market is clearly signaling it has a preference for in the market, in the euro, keeping things much the same. it does remain to be seen, and i think we will see a lot of volatility around then. if le pen does win, i think it is too hard to say at the moment. she has really been quite clear around some of her economic policies, and i think it really remains to be seen, the policies that she actually implements. i think it is may be a case of just trading around volatility as well, so for the time being, it is more around the potential trade opportunity. but in either scenario, a really remains to be seen what would be implemented.

tom: thank you so much, marilyn watson of blackrock. a really important thing, this is how economists look at yield. the series goes back 70 years, and the move up here to 2.75% is possibly the greatest standard deviation move higher during the great moderation, which means it is really a test of where we are in the move from volker, the 40 move of this great moderation. lisa: how can we look at a new higher-yielding regime when we talk about yields only at the highest since 2019, but really edging up to some of the great moderation highs that we have seen? remember, we were saying that yields could not go that high because something would break from all the debt that has been incurred. no one is talking about that. a lot of this has to do with the momentum, the strength in the economy that people had perhaps not expected in the past. tom: i want to go to your wells

fargo comment in the report. people are still enthused by banks even though there's the gloom of recession. kailey: we will see how much that holds up when we start to get earnings. jp morgan kicking us off on wednesday. citi saying that wells fargo's balance sheet stands out among the u.s. banks in particular. citi also has a buy rating on all of the other financials, including jp morgan and the like. flatter curve not as much a problem for. . these banks tom: deep into -- for these banks. tom: deep into april 2022, it feels like november. on his france, it is definitive come of the history of modern france. we are three yield -- we are thrilled to bring youth jonathan fenn be -- jonathan fenby. we will do that. futures negative six. ritika: keeping you up to date

with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. in france, president emmanual macron's team is painting nationalist marine le pen as an ally of vladimir putin. macron and le pen will square off april 24 and a runoff election. they were the top two vote getters in sunday's first round. le pen has been playing down her previous support for putin. three poles show macron with an eight point lead. russia's invasion of ukraine will cause the ukrainian economy to shrink by 45% this year. meanwhile, the russian economy will contract by more than 11%. estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. some lawmakers set to choose -- leadership. he lost a no-confidence vote after file out for pakistan's army over a range of issues.

in china, port congestion has gotten worse in shanghai after an economic lockdown there. a cargo ship waiting to deliver everything from metal to grain. the lockdown lead to warehouse closes and a trucker shortage in shanghai that led to diverting ships to other chinese ports. scottie sheffler is the new masters champion. scheffler has won four of the last five tournaments he has played. meanwhile, tiger woods played for the first time since a car accident that required surgery. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm rick a group the. this is bloomberg. -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

>> sanctions are always on the table.

discussing ukraine certainly means to discuss the activities of our sanctions. certainly minutes goals -- certainly ministers will discuss further steps. tom: the vice president of the european commission there. our maria tadeo in luxembourg this morning for ministers meetings, and we remind you of mr. biden and mr. modi in an interesting, delicate phone call today on the war in ukraine. we are following the headlines from russia. it has been a quiet morning all in all on that front. in the markets, two point 75% tenure yield. that says it all, doesn't it? lisa: especially because this is reverting to that trend saw that when yields rise, tech stocks selloff. people are getting concerned as we move closer to positive real yield, what that means for risk appetite. kailey asked earlier, is tina dead?

people say not necessarily, but it raises that as a potential issue. tom: kailey leinz info jonathan ferro this morning. he is a prolific writer on shanghai, on france. "the history of modern france" is an important read. but also, it one volume on what there was before macron, before le pen, and that is his magisterial book on general de gaulle. it can only be jonathan fenby. thank you so much for joining us. can you explain the collapse of the center and the right around the 31-year-old maverick mr. micron in his second term -- mr. macron in his second term? jonathan: the conventional centerleft, center-right division on which the fifth republic has rested for the last 50 years or more is now

destroyed. macron took away a lot of the support for the socialists last time round, and this time he seems to have taken away a lot of support from the center-right republicans. add to that the rise of le pen and other extremists on both left and right, and france's politics become completely fragmented. tom: in the tumult of america, there was a massive turn out in the last election. 74 million people chose to vote for trump. tell us the mystery of this turnout april 24. jonathan: the question now is how many of the people who voted for the hard left wing candidate , 22% went for him, which was an unusually high and unexpectedly high number, how many of those who don't like macron was

still -- like macron will still hold their nose and vote for him, or how many will abstain. that is how the runoff will be decided. lisa: how much is a move toward marine le pen indicative of the shift away from the western order, similar to what we saw with the trump presidency and what we have seen on the margins in a number of nations? jonathan: it is in part that, but the even harder right candidate who played the values card much more strongly than le pen, he did not do as well as many people thought he might have done, and le pen really picked up a lot of votes yesterday on cost-of-living issues, security, law & order, all these kinds of grassroots issues which she made the center of her campaign. kailey: what does emmanuel macron need to do as he campaigns between now and april 24? what is his largest task?

jonathan: his largest task is to show that he cares for the french people. his opponents made the argument going into the first round that he was to abscessed with his position as an international statesman, having once to described the president as that he floats above everyday concerns, and he's got to show the french that he cares for them. tom: i'm absolutely fascinated by this. paris is roughly 31% of the gdp of france. it is paris centric. is this simply the generalization, paris and macron against the rest of france? jonathan: that is certainly the way le pen will try to pitch it for the second round. the metropolitan elitist who cares for the rest of the world, the upper elite class, looking after them.

the president for the rich, and you've got the rest of france is being left in the doldrums. that has really been her main campaign theme. tom:tom:. to our viewers, france is table 12 overlooking the love's and berg garden -- the luxembourg garden. you are sitting there in the sun and everything is great. that is not france. is that what france is saying to micron, you are not france? jonathan: you've got it absolutely right. the rest of france, those who voted for le pen and the one who got 22% of the vote, got third, that france does not just exist in the small parts of paris. it exists in small towns and

farmlands, and you've got to face that class. lisa: how much of this is france's approach to russia, to what is going on in ukraine? jonathan: ukraine in a sense has been there all through the campaign, but mike rounds -- but macron's conversations with putin i don't think did him any harm. on the other hand, the far left and far right candidate who cowed to putin earlier on are somewhat embarrassed by this, and macron will make a lot of this, le pen's big loan from a russian bank, for instance. a lot of this will come up for the second round. tom: greatly appreciate it. wonderful to catch up with you again. i can't say in up -- say enough about mr. fenby's writings on

france. he has put together truly thousands of pages on this interesting nation. i'm looking here at this little cafe that overlooks the garden, and it is out of a movie. do a spielberg movie there. it is simple. that is what ugly americans, that is all we see lisa: film a spielberg movie. film "surveillance." i feel it you do duolingo during the break to prepare for a trip. tom: you mean -- [speaking translate] [laughter] it is worse than duolingo. lisa: caroline connan told us what street she was on, and you were like i am not going to do that. how much does this really represent the new order versus the breaking point? people are saying that frankly,

the war in ukraine had to do with a coalescing around nato. is that really an accurate rendition of where we are? tom: as jon would say, we have full team coverage. futures negative in paris. this is bloomberg. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. nalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

>> the fed will be pushing on because the labor market is overheated and inflation is too high. >> the fed has to move ahead to control inflation. >> it is really now for the market to catch up to the fed. >> the fed needs to step in and take some of the steam out of labor markets. >> the longer-term risks of this consumer led recession or slow down, whatever it may be, are building. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning. a pivotal week starts with a

yield spike. this i