tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg April 13, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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dani: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. manus: i'm dani burger alongside manus cranny. these are the stories that set your agenda. vladimir putin says negotiations have stalled as president biden accuses him of genocide. u.s. inflation hits a 40 when you're high. the fed calls for a quick set of rate hikes neutral.
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treasuries slipped. boris johnson richie cynic are find over party gate after breaking covid rules. u.k. inflation hits the tape this morning. the rbnz which is known as hsbc uses the language, the path of least regret. that language at the fed. dani: 50 basis move. i refuse to say that this morning. i'm embracing my americanism. is this a preview of what's to come for other central bank? manus: we had the language. we want to move expeditiously. we know that's the standard. i'd love to know what that means. i'm drawn so tom vargas.
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moving rapidly to the neutral range. brainard reaffirming the expeditious mood and bullard. we know what ubs is view is. he thinks it' fallacy that the current policy is good. 150 basis point hike. what is the risk of multiple sequential 50 basis points? fast fed. dani: that's what yesterday's market reaction to a core cpi that didn't get as hot as expected was. yields come off a bit but that's not what the fed is going to be doing. they aren't going to say, the fire is burning less bright. this is part of the reason why. every single survey is so negative. yesterday, a survey of small
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businesses. i have the chart for us. economic optimism is at an all-time low with prices at an all-time high. here is what inflation is doing to small business sentiment. the fed has to get this picture under control. manus: think about spending. americans set to cut their spending. putin says the talks are at an end as biden accuses russia of genocide. you have this movement in the oil market. down by 2/10 of 1%. above $100. that's the important alpha in the story. quite a big move in the oil market yesterday. gold continues to rally as the inflation hedge takes hold. why is it doing this to me? it went up for the ninth day in a row and it's back to flakka. -- flat. the dollar defies the notes i
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have in front of me. i won't be denied. bitcoin is up 1.5%. dani: i don't have that on my board for some reason. the market gods are in my favor. it is 6:00 london time. you are seeing three quarters of a percent rise. the outlier when it comes to market futures. europe is weaker than the rest of the market, down 2/10 of 1%. s&p 500 futures up 0.5%. i wanted to point out small packs. when markets fell yesterday, small-cap, russell 2000 was the only index that turned in the green. a lot of selling and some of the cyclical -- cyclical small caps. it will be interesting to see if the cyclical value trade can come back in action. tech has been extreme leave volatile over the past year to date. manus: let's get to everybody
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standing by. juliette saly on the rbnz rate and the language used. enda curran to talk us through the whole inflation. we have marked champion with the latest on the war in ukraine. dani: let's start with new zealand whose central bank has raised interest rates by half a percentage point. let's get more with bloomberg's juliette saly in singapore. break down the decision for us and the market reaction. juliette: catching about 15 of the 20 economists off guard, they are expecting a quarter-point hike. they are saying the path of least regret is to move more aggressively now rather than to have to play catch-up down the track as they grapple with inflation. the rbnz likes the inflation but -- to be between 1% to 3%. they've increased rates by 125
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basis points since october force -- october 4. you could see another 50 basis point hike, 50% chance of that coming through in the may meeting. asb and kiwi bank calling for that. let's have a look at what it did to market reaction. we are seeing yields yet -- drop. we saw quite a big move. let's have a look in the two year yield in particular. dropping 14 basis points. you saw the kiwi rise above net -- $.69 on the decision. rbnz saying that this could potentially be seen as dovish if they are moving more forward now and you don't see further aggressive rate hikes down the track. that's pushing the kiwi down. looking at a weaker new zealand market. reopening stocks are in play. new zealand reopening its border to vaccinated australians. manus: can you imagine the momentum when china gives us that headline? thank you very much for putting
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the rbnz in context rest. the u.s. inflation is the hottest since december 1981. is that what we will get? our uber teak -- chief asia economics correspondent and the current is with us. when you look at the headlines, it's a battle. state street was just with me and they said it's folly to think that the slightly lower core than we anticipated is going to save the day and slow the fed. enda: i think that's right. there seems to be two ways of reading it. in asia, headline inflation of 8.5% bringing things back to 1981 levels. mostly down to rising food prices and the cost of gasoline. core is coming off of 6.5% and that's reflecting a dip in currency -- used car sales. most economists are saying,
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non-withstanding the prices, it will take a long time for inflation to come back down from where it is and get back down to 2% target that the fed set. therefore, expectations remain on the fed going aggressively. official coming out on a daily basis talking about the need to get back to neutral as soon as possible. new zealand is seeing a bit of a bellwether for global central banks. it will only add to it. dani: thank you very much. now to the war in ukraine. president joe biden has for the first time accused russia of committing genocide in ukraine. his comments market major escalation in his condemnation of russia's invasion. joining us for more on this is marked champion. the use of the word genocide, what does this change? does it change anything? mark: legally, it doesn't
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really. genocide is one of those terms that has to be decided by a court. there is in any way to go from here in terms of political rhetoric that a u.s. president can use towards another country. in that sense, yes, it does matter. what it indicates is that there's a feeling at the moment that there's no more talking to do. that it's just a war now and we are going to have to wait to see what happens and who comes out on top in the next few weeks. president putin also said that talks yesterday were at a dead-end. the rhetoric on both sides is just getting worse. there's just a recognition that it's a race to get arms into the theater of eastern ukraine where
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russia is expected to mount a large offensive coming soon. any talk about a second summit has to wait until after that's done. which side comes out with more facts on the ground, if you would like. manus: thank you very much. mark champion there. thanks for joining us. let's set the agenda for the day. 12:00 u.k. time, that's when you want to be focused on some of the u.s. data. you are going to get ppi, more it -- mortgage allocations at rates -- with rates at the highest level in a decade. bank of canada will review their rate decision. 3:30 p.m., it's the eia inventory report. later on, jp morgan with q1 earnings. dani: coming up on the program next, touchup -- tatjana puhan.
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>> even as we work with congress, i'm not going to wait to take action to help american families. i'm doing everything within my power to bring down the prices. manus: president biden on the efforts to reduce the cost for american families. our guest this morning is tatjana puhan. deputy cio at tobam. the fastest inflation since 1981. we are grasping at straws.
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core inflation wasn't as bad. then we look at the narrative from bargains to bullard and from brainerd. i wonder, are we getting ready for a time where we don't have just one 50 basis point hike but a series of multi--- a series of 50 basis point hikes. let's get to neutral rapidly. bullard thinks it's fantasy to talk about modest rate rises. are you ready? is the market ready for multiple 50 babs? tatjana: the market is not ready for that. from my point of view, they underestimate the risk of inflation being so persistent. what seems to be a peak might -- now might be a plateau and it will stay for some time. i am much more cautious. i would expect that the rate hikes be much more aggressive
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than what we anticipate or what markets anticipate. dani: let me play dead will -- devils advocate for you. you get this decision to hike 50 basis points. most economists didn't think that would be the scenario. the market reaction was pretty muted. the game in the kiwi dollar came back. some of the rise in bond yields in new zealand also came back as well. is there not a degree where markets are prepared for these hawkish moves so once they come to fruition, the moves are insignificant? tatjana: there's obviously something playing into it. rates in general, a lot of investors try to hedge themselves. that's probably another factor in here. that could mute the immediate reaction. the medium term for me is very
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clear actually. we need to price further than what we did today. we are far away from pricing in a scenario with higher interest rates and persistent high inflation. this is the eventual objective. this risk isn't priced and yet so far. yeah. after all, lockdowns make the economy less hungry for commodity consumption. otherwise, i don't think -- see anything that will bring down inflation in the short term. manus: i'm trying to find a goldilocks scenario. i have been chastised on that. apparently, i was awaiting the fairies. bank of america have delivered a
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phenomenal chart that goes to the heart of the debate in the equity market which is global growth optimism. it's at an all-time low. they say you want to sell the rich. you are calling for a more aggressive fed hiking cycle. do you think the equity markets are playing jeopardy? are they too rich, given the growth scenario laid out in the fund manager survey, given the narrative from bank of america? tatjana: i think so. if you look at evaluations of stocks, they priced in long-term growth expectations. if you look at the business models behind those companies, behind these large tech companies, the growth has been built on consumers fueling the growth of the last 10 to 15 years. this will basically invert in
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the moment when we have longer inflation fears and much higher rates. this has not been priced in so far. dani: what does it mean when you have assets that no longer give you the juice in your portfolio they once did? one way to look at this is that jones trading. they take the earnings yield of the s&p 500, add that to the yield of the treasury, and that for the first time in six decades is giving you less than inflation. what does this mean for your portfolio? tatjana: it's a catastrophe. it will have long-term consequences for people like me. when i want to go into retirement, there will be a long time where you won't even learn the inflation rate. it also means that people will be even more desperate to look for other ways to diversify. what's also very important is
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liquid assets. the challenge is the liquid state of assets. dani: you are going to stick around with us. deputy cio at tobam. let's get to the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: boris johnson has become the first u.k. prime minister to be sanction for breaking the law after police find him for attending a real breaking gathering during lockdown. the chancellor was also found to have broken the rules and attending the event in june 2020. the opposition labour party leader says they had repeatedly lied to the british public and called on them to quit. new york city police department has identified a person of interest after a chaotic tuesday morning shooting at a brooklyn subway station. 23 people were injured after two grenades were set off on a manhattan train.
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10 people had gunshot wounds and there were injuries among 13 others. shanghai has posted a new daily record of covid cases. the city sought 26,330 new infections on tuesday, up from about 23,000 on monday. curbs have been eased in some areas. the majority of the city remains under a tight lockdown that bands even outside exercise or shopping for essential items. the world's top independent oil trader intends to completely stop transactions involving russian origin crude and products by the end of the year. the company says volumes will diminish significantly in the second quarter before being phased out completely. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. coming up, the tech roller coaster.
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dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. now as yields have moved higher, tech has fallen. over the past week, $1 trillion has been wiped. part of the story is these higher yield interest-rate hikes mean that you have to discount the future cash flow of these tech shares. if tech isn't safe, what is? let's dig into it with our guest. you are also saying that part of the reason tech is faltering is the u.s. consumer story. that's what fuel tech. if the consumer story isn't
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there, it's more than tech presumably. where you hide out? tatjana: this is a very good question and everybody would like the answer. i think the right answer is to say, you need to diversify. this means that you are going to automatically be moving away from meg attack stuff -- stocks that have reservations and long-duration priced in. you know, it's going to be a wide range of different sectors. it's going to be a wide range of different business models behind that that might have -- help actually. completely heading out of consumer impression anyways. manus: if we dissect tech a little bit more, one of the risks is that the consumer in the u.s. -- 84% are going to spend less. wages are declining.
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that's the consumer side of tech. on the industrial side of tech, how do you differentiate this and we'll wages -- real rages? how do i disaggregate tech from consumer to industrial or sectorial difference? tatjana: it is not so it's really similar. you might have certain tech companies, you might have a business model that has both branches. very clearly, those companies have very high valuations. you have a lot of smaller tech companies that surprisingly have been punished today the most. from my point of view, they are much more nuanced.
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they are the more industrial part of tech. i was not expecting a rotation within tax -- tech. dani: that's pretty interesting. i wonder if you buy the story. this had been developing as inflation was moving higher. this idea that because tech companies aren't capital-intensive, that inflation won't hurt them as much. they can keep their margins and prices lower because of that input of higher commodity prices. do you buy that narrative at all? tatjana: i buy it hardly. in an obvious way, consumers have less money. they are less likely to buy a new iphone. they will go away even if you cut the price. we are talking about the global market.
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it's not only the u.s.. i think that will be really difficult to compensate for. manus: thank you for being with us this morning. tatjana puhan. deputy cio at tobam. . we are going to talk u.s. bank earnings. the president and cio of greenwood capital joining us next. we talk about the risk to the m&a slate. that was to be monster but has been meliorate it. we will talk about trading and big cap to small, right here on bloomberg. ♪
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manus: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i manus cranny by with dani burger in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. dani: dead ends. vladimir putin says negotiations have stalled as president biden accuses him of genocide. treasuries slip. plus, boris johnson and ritchie's new neck are find over
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party gate. it seems like the gloomiest among us have taken over, survey after survey shows a record woes, attitudes about this economy. pessimism is at an all-time high. opinions about this economy, about the way forward are at an all-time low. bank of america argues that that means equity allocations can fall even lower from here. manus: the fast and the furious fed has invoked global growth optimism, which is what you are looking at, at an all-time low. the narrative from that bank of america survey is that you know that little bit of an appetizer of a rally? you want to sell that and that is not even the main course for 20 22. i'm channeling my inner grinch. we know it lives strong. dani: it does seem are they so
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bad this is a most contrarian signal? the economy is going to head toward a recession or maybe it is a really good time to be a contrarian and bet the other direction because sentiment is so stretched to the downside at the moment. manus:-many great moments of contraryitis, none of which are proven to be very profitable. just when you thought it can't get worse, it can. dani: this is why we are not asset managers, manus. let me dig into the market for those that are and those that own it. the msci asia pacific. we are looking out at china that is underperforming. also underperforming coming euro stoxx 50. meanwhile, s&p 500 futures up 0.5 percent, outperformance from small-cap. the fiscal shares doing -- cyclical shares doing better. the only one to end in the green
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was russell 2000. manus: you love your russells. dani: i do. manus: let's show you what is going on in the oil markets. putin vows to continue the war. negotiations are at a dead end. eia and the u.s. saying crude production is going to rise slower than expected. you are seeing oil build on it 7% rally. day six of the rally, again, i think it is on stagflation concerns. where they see the target for this year. that dollar, i could think of an expletive, that dollar will not move. my notes said it had rallied for the ninth day. it is not doing what my notes say. he interest-rate differential, i'm hopeful the dollar will rise. dani: oof. just slipping. it is a cruel, cruel king
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dollar. it is, it is. also on deck today, jp morgan kicking off the bank earnings season, first quarter earnings due later today. investors will be focused on how market volatility caused by the war in ukraine has infected the investment banking and trading operation. charlie wells is here with us to break down what to expect. how exposed are u.s. banks to russia at this moment? >> these are the headlines we have been hearing all quarter. it will be reassuring for investors to hear that american banks have been drawing down operations since 2014, 2015. for jp morgan, bank of america, russia was not in one of their top 20 market. citigroup was the most exposed of the large american banks. last month, they said they had about $10 billion in assets tied to russia, compared to the $2.3 trillion they have. i think what is important is to focus on the secondary effects. we know about the primary
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effects. u.s. banks want to get out, they know they need to get out. what about a potential recession, what do fed moves mean for these banks? that is what we should be looking at. manus: good to have you with us, charlie. we are about to have a conversation with an analyst on the banks. part of that will be about the interest rate cycle, what is priced in. that comprises the net income narrative for 2022 and beyond. how significant is the speed of these hikes to the banks' narrative? >> i think this is pretty important. we will hear a goldilocks theme. if the fed moves to slow, these banks don't get that net boost they have been talking about for months now. but if they move too fast, we have the risk of triggering a recession. recessions are not good for anyone, but you see that spread across banks. on the commercial side, you get slower deal flow, you get slower investment banking.
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on the consumer side, you get demand diminished, the demand for mortgages diminished. i think that is a real concern here, as the jp morgan ceo said last week in his letter to the shareholders, i don't envy the fed. manus: nope, i don't think anybody does. damned if they do, damned if they don't. let's continue the conversation on earnings. we are joined by the greenwood capital president and cio, walter todd. my gosh, there has been some spirited change since we last caught up. bonds are on fire. the market is convulsing over rate hikes. so let's talk through what has changed for the banks at the top level as we go into this reporting season? what is going to define the jp morgan numbers today? let's start there. walter: good morning again.
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it seems like three months seems like a year or more. we talk about the rate changes and so forth. i think looking at the bank earnings, you talk about net interest income, i think the quarter is going to be pretty good from that perspective. they should see an improvement. i think the real concern for banks is looking forward. you touched on the probability of a recession or severe slowdown. that is what the market is starting to price in. the market is starting to participate some credit problems down the road. you start to see this really in mid-january where the bank index diverged from higher rates. the 10 year was up about 100 basis points. from that point, it is down 19% from those levels in mid-january, after earnings. i think this quarter is going to be fine. i'm sure investors will focus on long growth and the usual suspects, but more so want to
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hear about what the exposure is to russia and what the outlook is for the remainder of the year. dani: one of the lovely changes also, i think last time we talked to you, you were still broadcasting from home -- it is good to see you in an office, some normalcy there. one things that seem like it has deviated from being normal is m&a. a lot of it being tabled. due to the volatility, due to the war in ukraine. how big of a bite is that going to take out of the major banks if we are seeing m&a deal flows significantly? walter: for sure. whether you look at m&a or ipo activity, they have all slowed and will likely continue to slow. the backdrop for m&a is actually quite good despite the uncertainty, given some of the valuations that have come across the market. the cost is still relatively good. it is actually a good backdrop for m&a. but the uncertainty of the war, of business confidence starting
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to fall, we had some numbers this morning that went down, that is going to cause companies to maybe pause and not move forward with that. that is another pickup for banks in addition to the ipo market as well slowing. manus: come back to the russian exposure in a moment, because my sense is that europe has a bigger exposure to perhaps the russia story, but you can help us clarify that. what i was drawn to, heck lot has changed since we last spoke, bonds have spiked, the yield curve has flattened -- but when you look at the relationship, and you drew my attention to this, the ratchet in the 10 year government bonds -- obviously, these two are diverging. normally in a rising rate, it is a positive for banks. we have given a lot of that back. why the divergence?
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is it because mortgages are at risk? is it because mortgage costs are at a five-year high? why the divergence? >> that is the big question. a lot of factors. i think the housing market potentially slowing with mortgage rates backing up 150 basis points clearly an issue. it is more than banks. if you look at home builders, if you look at stemis -- stimis, if you look at transports, all of these are going down and pricing in a significant slowdown. banks are just kind of emblematic of a broader issue and concern around an economic slowdown. i think that is why you are seeing that divergence. if we could see that reconnect at some point later this year, that would be great. i know you have mentioned brainerd's comments several times. what jumped out at me this week is christopher lawler, a fed governor who said, when you have
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a brute force tool you are using, sometimes there is collateral damage that happens. that is a pretty bold statement. dani: he was. yes, it does feel like some concession of the effect that they realize that might have. walter, i'm going to do a hard pivot. be patient with me for a moment. i was looking and i know these tend to be outdated, but i did notice you took some exposure to twitter. you can correct me if you don't have that exposure anymore. i'm interested to get your thoughts on having elon musk among your peers and the largest holder of twitter. does that change your opinion about the company at all? walter: we do not have that exposure anymore to twitter. it was a small position we exited. we have been kind of following that narrative as well, just because it certainly is market moving. manus: i actually looked at the
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end of the list of the 24 stocks. dani sent me this this morning. there is another little ticker in here. tfla. tesla. what are your thoughts? this man is now pervasive. he has a following of 80 million people on twitter. do you think he could run for president? [laughter] walter: we don't own tesla, just to be clear. personally, i think tesla when you look at -- elon musk aside -- just look at the valuation of tesla compared to other carmakers, there seems to be a total disconnect. it is a fraction of the market share. we have a position in porsche based on the undervaluation there. very challenging issue with
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germany and everything going on right now, but we do think the ipo which we expect later this year will unlock some value in that specific security. we have never owned tesla and i can't guarantee you, but i can pretty much given you. manus: my apologies on that. i misread that. my apologies for that. when we get it wrong, you have to be big and brave and say i got it wrong. dani: all right, walter, let me jump in. let me get away from the single stock names and elon musk. i sense some hesitancy to talk about mr. musk, which i understand. manus: i think it is a fair question. he's got 80 million people following him on twitter. walter: he's the richest men in the world. he's obviously a pretty smart guy. dani: yeah, walter, are you scared of when you have these
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stocks, that can really just with one tweet, be it from elon musk or be it from gamestop related to, when you look at stocks that do move so much based on personality, does that scare you off or do you see an opportunity here to short the stock, to ride the wave, or otherwise? walter: we are a pretty traditional manager. we do try to find companies with management teams we feel comfortable with and we are going to be in for a longer period of time. we would try to avoid those names that are moving up and down on a narrative or a story and not on fundamentals. we saw a lot of that in early 2021. it has calmed down a little bit, but it seems to be coming back lately. those of the type of names we would try to avoid in our portfolios. dani: sticking with the reliable, the jp morgans of the world, walter, great to have you another program.
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walter todd, greenwood capital president and cio. let's get to the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: president vladimir putin says peace talks with ukraine are at a dead end and vowed to continue russia's invasion. there has been no word of progress for days in video link talks after ukraine accused moscow of carrying out war crimes, including killing unarmed civilians. putin called the claims fake and said the war is going according to plan. president joe biden has accused russia of committing genocide in ukraine, significantly escalating his condemnation of president putin's invasion as the u.s. is said to be ready in further military assistance worth around $750 million for kyiv. ukraine has asked allies for more weapons as a braces for a new offensive by russian forces in the country's east. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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manus: it is daybreak europe. i am manus cranny in dubai. dani burger in london. we have the reactions in. elon musk is born in south africa. he cannot run for president. there you go. that is four different people. i think about the message. dani: i'm embarrassed myself. i did not pick that up. at the top of the show i
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insisted on saying rbn-z. manus: don't try to share the blame. dani: you are right. i just did not want to correct you. let's turn away from the u.s., away from south africa, and get to u.k. politics were boris johnson has become the first sitting prime minister to be sanctioned for breaking the law after he was fined for attending a rule breaking party during lockdown. how big of a threat to these party gate fines post his career? >> he looks to be the teflon man. the most likely successor has also been having a time. he had his many budget, which many people do sized for not doing enough to help the poorest people. he has been criticized for his wife's tax affairs.
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he has been having a difficult time even though he has become the first prime minister to have committed a criminal offense while in office. meanwhile, boris's popularity has arisen because of the war in ukraine. it looks like you will keep on for now. manus: we are going to get a little bit more data for you to chew on. 6.6% in march. up from 6.2% in february. >> yes, unlikely to beast stood here in a few minutes -- driven by the war in ukraine pushing up food and fuel prices. adding up to this cost of living crisis. it is threatening to derail the economic recovery.
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looking ahead, as this war rages on, the bank of england says that you could get a percent inflation -- 8% inflation in april. this figure we are going to get today is likely to boost the case for another rate rise from the bank of england in may. manus: a little bit more mortgage pain to come. the latest on the politics and data from the united kingdom. coming up, lvmh has a bumper first quarter, but how is it doing with china and the zero covid policy? details to come as organic revenue bumps up for dior and louis vuitton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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europe. i'm dani burger with manus cranny in dubai. lvmh sales beat expectations. fashion and leather goods saw standup performance. now how to navigate new rolling lockdowns in china. a really fascinating quarter and quarters to come for lvmh luxury goods. breakdown the results for us. laura: as you say, the rolling lockdowns in china are a problem. asia excluding japan now contributes 30% of lvmh's total revenue, down from 41% the same period a year ago. it was europe that saw the highest organic revenue growth of 45 percent because lvmh is focusing on establishing local tourism in europe at a time when asian tourism has been decimated because of the pandemic. we learned that the u.s. is lvmh's largest country market and there was a comedic moment on the earnings call when the
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cfo actually had to check with the head of comms whether it was the u.s. or china. pivoting to fashion and leather goods, which brings me onto my next board. bolstered by strong sales from dior and celine in terms of pricing single-digit pricing increases, what the cfo called reasonable, although he had admitted there was no specific science behind this. online sales growth is decelerating compared to brick-and-mortar. manus: he said increasing those in a meaningful way across. given the conversation we have
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had in the past hour about the global outlook, how does that stack up for lvmh? >> look, they are a heritage luxury brand, so they have pricing power. they don't have to worry about rising oil prices. they can lock in raw material costs well in advance. against a tough macro backdrop, which includes the selloff, the rise of omicron, and russia's invasion of ukraine, lvmh has still achieved growth of up to 84% over three years. why the analysts remain bullish on this luxury name. manus: we want again to whether you bought a little bit of dior and a little bit of louis vuitton. dani: i will never tell. manus: you never, ever tell.
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anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets europe. i'm anna edwards live in london. mark cudmore joins us from singapore to take us through all the market action. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. u.s. inflation hits a 41 year high. brainard and barkan call for quick rate hikes. treasuries slip. dead-end. vladimir putin says negotiations have stalled.
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