>> so far, people still expect inflation is going to come back down. >> we are not going to go back to 2% inflation. >> we are not of the opinion that 2% gets us to where we need to be from an inflation slowdown standpoint. >> i think it would behoove the fed to get a move on. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the united states taking another big step away from this pandemic. tom: it really says that things are getting back to normal. it was great to have the doctor on with us from john's hot ins.

there's that symbolism. no masks on airplanes. jonathan: the performance this year, dreadful. down 44% year to date. tom: i keep looking at the fa screen and go back to this on another property, where's the profit on netflix? it's not like amazon. it's not like apple. i go to j&j is just as important. j&j has a tepid view forward. jonathan: where's the revenue growth for the likes of netflix and our people cutting back. is that discretionary spend on things like this. lisa: that financial times article this morning about how u.k. subscribers are cutting their netflix at the fastest pace on record. it was a number of the others including apple tv.

at what point do we see these types of discretionary spends being the victim of higher living. jonathan: dollar-yen. in the face of some verbal intervention from the japanese minister who said we are monitoring with a strong sense of vigilance. that's falling on deaf ears in foreign exchange. tom: it is. there needs to be an education on the long term devaluation. what did japan do? they devalued the yen to keep the house of cards going. the devaluation is 56% calculated by the imf going back to 1995 and in that period in u.s. dollars, the japanese index is up 13% and 27 years and the

s&p 500 is up to 745%. that's all you need to know. jonathan: it's not about what the japanese authorities are doing, it's about what they are not doing. they are not going to be joining that fed rate hike. tom: the whole thing here is we are finally where we have known we were going for years. the separation from japan is here. jonathan: good morning to you all. futures recover on the s&p. essentially unchanged on the nasdaq as well. yields keep climbing by three or four basis points. the significance of getting closer to 3% on a 30 year in america. tom: we talked about housing yesterday. we've got housing data.

the point is it's not like the yield lift of six months ago. there's something different going on which is a general lift bringing that inflation-adjusted rate up. jonathan: i think that was lisa telling us to shut up. lisa: there's so many other things that are happening and frankly each economic data point might not move the tile in the same kind of way that geopolitical events could. that's what i've been grappling with every morning. today president biden hosting a call with leaders of france, japan and the u.k. the question is how to proceed with the war in ukraine. the focus is france coming out and saying we've got to consider banning oil. how much is the focus moving -- we hear from chicago fed

president charlie evans. do they matter at this point when even jawboning is not sending down longer-term inflation expectations? why is the 30 year treasury yield rising? because people do not believe we are going to get inflation back down to 2% over the next five to 10 years. tom: this is really important. the chart is showing the guesstimate of inflation getting back in the vicinity of 2006. lisa: it comes as we have the ongoing role of earnings. 15% of the s&p will be reporting this week. 69 companies, netflix among them. shares down 44%. they are set to report after the bell. how can they remain resilient?

jonathan: senior investment strategist at edward jones. netflix is down 44% year to date. what are the data points you need to see top-down to start looking at big tech again? >> it's been a brutal year for big tech. this is the year where we went off the zero bound. real yields which were deeply negative are now starting to hit at zero bound. when that happens in that backdrop, what we really see is downward pressure on the growth sectors. what we have seen as the underperformers coming from discretionary, tech and come services. the growth tech parts of the market have really underperformed. in order for that to reverse, we would need to see somewhere down the road when u.s. growth slows

more meaningfully, perhaps investors start taking a look at where is their growth in the market. but in the near term as real yields hit positive territory and as the fed starts to move, we would think they would be continued downward pressure. at least avoidance of some of these names for now. jonathan: we asked whether it's time to lean back into the cyclicals. are you saying now is not the time? >> generally speaking a lot of investors are bracing themselves ahead of this big fed move. the fed is poised to move aggressively. probably 50 basis points in may and again in june. head of that we really need to position a little bit more defensively in your portfolios. the areas that have pricing power. health care, staples, utilities. consumers will have to buy their staples. probably have to pay their utility bills. those are the areas people have

been gravitating towards. we can see value outperforming growth as valuation compression is likely. defensive value cyclical tilts still holds. lisa: what about financials? do they count as growth or value? >> probably energy and industrials have been more defensive oriented. financials have had a tougher time. it's hard for net interest income and interest margins to really rise in financial companies. we do see as yields start to move higher, as there is less pressure on the consumer and consumption or at least more indication the consumer will

remain intact, financials may come back to some extent but we still favor some of the more defensively oriented. lisa: there's a distinction here. not necessarily wanting to lean into the more economically sensitive stocks and not necessarily seeing a recession. can you parse that difference to suggest that we're not parsing in a slowdown and not necessarily getting into some type of downturn? >> for 2022, recession is not as likely. the economic metrics have held up. we talked about earnings being solid. we are seeing things like consumer sentiment, industrial production, even broad economic surprise indices have been moving higher. when you look at the fixed income market, credit spreads until a benign story as well.

i do think as we move forward with 200 basis points plus a fed tightening, we will really be watching two scenarios unfold. one will be that inflation indeed does rollover towards unit and we hope for that scenario plays out. the other is that growth starts to rollover more meaningfully. i think investors are still on the fence as to which direction this could head. we could see long-term yields start to move lower. generally if inflation does start to rollover, some of that pressure is taken off the fed. that is how you execute a soft landing and probably much more welcomed by markets than the other scenario. jonathan: this is what people are waiting for. to see that deceleration and growth and perhaps a federal reserve that has to back away. maybe that's not the scenario

that emerges in the back half of this year. lisa: the conversation has shifted away from that narrative that we begin the year. on the margins people are thinking about higher yields over the longer term because of the idea that the fed is not necessarily considered aggressive enough to curtail inflation that has been influenced by a number of factors. jonathan: barclays picked up on that point. looking for some more flattening, more inversion. they have backed away from that exactly because of what you described. for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up to news -- up to date with news around the world.

-- russia has made the capture of the area its main goal in the war. the attacks are taking place along the front more than 300 miles. -- says the central bank shouldn't rollout rate increases to fight inflation. he said the fed needs to move quickly to raise rates around 3.5 percent this year. he said talk of a u.s. recession is premature. most major u.s. allies are no longer requiring travelers and employees to wear masks on domestic and some international flights. a federal judge overturned a mandate for passengers to cover their faces. the airline industry has lobbied the biden administration to ease that rule. uber in the u.s.. johnson & johnson has cut its profit forecast.

j&j is suspending its guidance for covid vaccine sales because of unclear demand and global supply surplus. bloomberg learned that apollo could provide elon musk or another bidder like private equity firm -- with equity or debt to support an offer. twitter shares posted their biggest gain two weeks on monday. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the array of disruptions from china's lockdowns, from the impact it to be fully felt of the russia ukraine war on food crisis, on global supply chains. jonathan: the wonderful braylen carmen reinhart there. the china gdp outlook from 4.8% 4.2% this year. the base case. can you imagine a three handle potentially in china this year? tom: can we do a victory lap? not for jon ferro.

for carmen reinhart. reinhart and her wonderful husband vincent reinhart, an essay that came out and made a splash and a lot of people said come on, the pandemic depression, the global economy will never be the same. they are like a piñata on that. they took a lot of heat for that not gloom but caution of gauging where we would be back then two years from now. she looks like a genius now. jonathan: russia included. tom: right now joe mathieu. as you know, there can be one sentence in the morning research where you just stop. four days before thanksgiving after the election, the president of the united states

will be 80 years old. everybody in your world knows that. what does it mean for the democrats, what does it mean for the republicans? >> the unspoken conversation that this president will not likely be running for another term although he did suggest pretty recently that he would be lucky to run against donald trump again. that's what you have to do. you can't come into the white house as a lame-duck president at a couple more years and imagine how brutal that campaign would be in 2024 whether it were against trump or anyone else. this is difficult for our young men and a lot of questions about how many years joe biden has left in that job. tom: remember when -- showed up in u.s. politics? young people used to show up and run. you are the youngest guy in the beltway. why is it a geriatric washington? >> it's a great question.

if republicans get their way and start instituting term limits on chairmanship, that may turn things around a little bit. if you go back to 2008, it was the young barack obama who was too young for the job and he inspired a lot of younger lawmakers to come to town. it was the republican young guns before that and these guys like to hang around for a while. the idea was someone puts their career down for a minute, comes to washington, represents the people, acts as a politician and then goes back to what they were doing. that doesn't happen very often. lisa: is anyone in washington? >> not in terms of lawmakers. the biggest event that happened here last week was the easter egg role at the white house. this white house is engaged from a distance. the president is back on the road. even he is leaving on his way to

portsmouth new hampshire to tout the benefits of the infrastructure law. that is also home to the portsmouth naval shipyard, one of the most important installations for upgrading and revitalizing our nuclear submarine fleet. they are spending money to upgrade that facility. lisa: this idea of how engaged lawmakers are even if they are on break or concerned about the midterm elections. how engaged they are at a time when people are talking about the u.s. and helping to really remove their dependency on russia or whether it's really increasing production of grains so they can really feed a lot of the nations that are running into some issues. how much is their willingness to spend at a time when spending is being blamed for a lot of the inflation that we are seeing now? >> very little willingness. republicans wouldn't even get together on a covert funding

bill because they didn't like the fact that it wasn't coming with offsets and some of the ways this came together is resulting in supplies running out here. we talked to lawmakers every night on bloomberg radio. they are engaged not necessarily on the issue that you are talking about. the next likely thing might be a sanctions bill to codify what the administration has already done. jonathan: did that judge do this administration and favor? >> i think you are on to something. it also helps if you are not going to go into a lawsuit, put some questions around the authority of the cdc. that's the potential downside to this. tom: joe is just fresh and perky this morning. after patriots' day in boston, he has a lager beer wrapped around him. he is way too chippy.

jonathan: a man who did not run the marathon. tom: i thought about it once. explain that hill in newton. >> heartbreak hill. it's not too late. people do this late in life. we can start a couple months of training together. we will be the last to arrive late in the dark of night. tom: pharaoh is going to be pushing me in the cart. jonathan: can you do that voice again? is that your ex and at the end of a marathon -- accent at the end of the marathon? we got you the average age of the senate. just for you. 62 point nine years. average age of parliament in u.k., a little more than 50. tom: ok. i don't know.

i like what joe manchin -- joe mathieu said. it's like washington and wall street. i like what joe mathieu said about term limits for chairman and chairwoman. jonathan: that's a mistake i made. are you bringing it up from yesterday? tom: the last time jon ferro made a mistake was six weeks ago. can you get me that? jonathan: are you suggesting the president is too old? tom: i'm not suggesting that. it's a grind. president reagan and president bush senior, i'm sure there's issues in england as well. i -- come on. 80 years old. jonathan: i'm asking because after the midterms are we going to have the conversation about whether he's going for that second term or not. tom: i'm going to be here at 80.

there's no question about that. jonathan: i have no doubt about that. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. i was just asking about the president, of course. not future plans on this show. lisa has no thoughts on this. no publicly available thoughts anyway. ♪

♪ jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. we are slightly negative on the s&p, down two points to -0.04% -- down two points, -0.04%. after the close we will be talking about netflix. that has had a dreadful year. i want to talk about two things. and the bond market, i want to talk about the treasury market and the 10 year, and this breakout we have seen through the month of april so far. a 50 basis point move. lisa has picked up on a story that i think is really important. maybe some doubts that this federal reserve is going to step up and do what is needed to cap inflation, and that is starting

to reinvigorate the selloff in the backend of the yield curve. that's one view from barclays and another view you have been building on as well. lisa: this is been a huge shift. even though people were expecting that later in the year people would be worried about a growth slowed down and go into longer-term treasuries, that is not happening, and also because it is a global phenomenon. it is not just the u.s. with rising yields and rising inflation. jonathan: it is germany too. we had about a 40 basis point move this month alone on the german 10-year. we've had a two basis point move on the japanese 10 year. that is the global story. you see it again this morning. 10 year yield up to four basis points in america. in japan, it is hard to tell whether the japanese government bond market is closed or if it is open and no one is really doing anything because the doj won't let them. that is a factor in the fx market. with dollar-yen on the move for a 13th street day of yen weakness against the u.s.

dollar, when you hear the japanese finance minister saying we will look at this with a strong sense of vigilance, and you look at what is happening in the bond market and what they are going to do or not going to do in policy this year, it is hard to push back against this one, and this is bricking out any major way over the last couple of weeks. tom: the now has been discussed for 10 years. i remember talking to martin feldstein of harvard about this, waiting and waiting for that differential to be there to show the nakedness of japan. there it is. we are there now. jonathan: there's the cross asset price action. let's say good morning to romaine. romaine: let's take a look at johnson & johnson. the bloom really does seem to be off the rose when it comes to these covid-19 vaccine and treatment makers. johnson & johnson reporting revenue from the covid-19 vaccine of about $457 million in the most recent quarter, $300

million below what the street was expecting. the company also pulling its guidance for any covid-19 guidance going further, largely because of concerns about what demand is going to look like and some of the supply chain issues. overall, their revenue came in at about $23 billion, just a smidge below what the street was looking for. a company clearly and transmission, particularly with the spin off of that consumer health division. moderna down about 2.5%, setting up for a third straight day of declines. moderna still sticking by this covid-19 program. just about 45 minutes ago, providing update on its latest booster shot that says will be more effective against the newer variants out there. a wild story with cassava sciences. last year they came out was data showing what appeared to be a major breakthrough in treatment for alzheimer's disease. a bombshell story in "the new york times" calling a lot of that data into question, saying

several medical journals have retracted the study that led to the big rally in the shares. there was a similar story i "the wall street journal" that also made some allegations about the veracity of that data. that has been a retail stock darling. we are going to take a look at netflix after the bell on "bloomberg markets: the close." those shares flat on the day. this is the third worst performer in the s&p 500, third worst in the nasdaq 100 on a year-to-date basis or get a lot of that stems from the report in january where the company said it only expect to add about 2.5 million subscribers for the first quarter, about 1/3 fewer than what the street was looking for. it will be interesting to see not only the subscriber growth, but also the pricing power. bloomberg intelligence has some great data on app downloads for a lot of these streaming services that showed a pretty healthy environment, but just not for netflix, not for warner bros., not for business.

tom: what does netflix mean for warner bros.? what does the netflix release this afternoon mean for warner bros. discovery? romaine: let me quote bloomberg intelligence for you. the streaming service is doing better right now are the non-subscription streaming services, the ones that are more reliant on advertising rather than on the price of the sub script in itself. the ones that are sub and related are suffering the most. tom: it will be interesting this afternoon. this is a joy because he has been so right about the resilient dollar. dollar is going to die, dollar is going to be weak, and mark mccormick of td securities said no it is not. mr. mccormick writes one of the most nuanced research pieces on the street. i'm going to go to factor analysis. you have six factors that matter within your cocktail of strategy. tell me where growth fits in now

and what growth differentials say for the japanese government. mark: thank you. what is quite interesting is if you think about growth, it is kind of forgotten about. 2021 was all about central-bank divergence, respond to inflation. everyone kind of forgot about growth. what we are seeing is if we look at growth momentum is a factor, it is one of the best performance strategies year-to-date, along with carry and even equity divergence. you are seeing is across any countries, divergence across factors, which is important because this is not just about fed, not just about central banks. we are think about how important relative growth divergence matters. tom: we've got the imf report this morning, and he is going to talk a lot about trade. full trade in shanghai into the weakness or the potential weakness of em. mark: i think if you think about

where growth is, but we still have is the services reopening coming in em. what i think the big driver is for this year is the g4 central-bank balance sheet is shrinking, but china's credit impulse is rising. so the credit cycle is kind of turning in delta terms, but still generally positive. so it changes the landscape of which currencies can outperform others. if you were to think about what happened this year, we had a massive selloff in equities. we have seen deterioration of sharpe ratios. the best performing currencies year-to-date are in latin america. they are emerging markets, high yield, carry currencies. if we still have a commodity story, we do have growth diversions, we don't need a unifying strong dollar. so there are still elements that china stimulating is good for pockets of the world because it is pushing capital flows on the equity side out of the united states can do other countries. lisa: is the narrative clearer now? has an turton d -- has

uncertainty about the direction of certain currencies been removed? mark: i think it is clear is if you think about the market narrative, we've had conversations with clients in january where we really like ozzie and. that would -- liked aussie-yen. that was one of our favorite trades to start the year. if you look at the two factors that were driving aussie-yen, it was commodities and yield. part of what we know that the market is aware of now is this turn to trade theme, this is really a prevailing narrative along with the central bank policy. i think talking about growth again, talking about valuations and equities is very critical where the biggest thing we have seen this year israel rates have gone up 100 basis points in the u.s. this is what is causing the new narrative shift, which is kind of a pivot back to europe. i think what is very clear in

the fx market is we know yields are rising, we know central banks were hawkish last year. we know which ones will let you be less hawkish this year, and we are starting to see these new trades emerge, which i think a big part is going to be divergence across europe. euro, sterling, swiss, all of those currencies are now in play for the second half of the year. lisa: how much do you expect the dollar to weaken just broadly, given that people have begin what you see as the main and staying narrative? mark: i say we are still in a period of time where the dollar strengthens. through q2, i think euro is still holding, but you could cem start to crater on the hawkish rates. part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions, and they have not really done that too much yet. we still need to see real rates rise a little bit, maybe another 25 basis points. that is descriptive for u.s. equities. that causes a lot of the turbulence we are seeing in

markets. on the others had of this, if the fed disrupts the golden goose that has supported the dollar for the last couple years, it is really the equity flows into u.s. have offset the current account deficit. so euro can revisit 115 to 120, especially if the ecb is going to hike rates twice this year, but it is too early to sequence ecb tightening because of the other tractors -- the other factors we are tracking for the euro. they are still negative our framework, so we are not buying europe because there's not a broad-based conviction for it. but when it happens, euro timing out around one await -- euro bottoming out around 108 is where we are. if you focus on the changes around what is happening in europe, euro-swiss is a prime candidate right now. it has held around parity at 101. devour models are pointing towards 104, even in the next couple of weeks. jonathan: there's nothing boring

about foreign exchange for the next few weeks, that is for sure. thing boring -- nothing boring about the commodity market either. we heard from french finance minister bruno le maire, who said it more important than ever to stop oil imports from russia. here's the number from jp morgan. if the eu banned all russian oil immediately, crude in value they hit $185. tom: what is important here is the partition in that article between gas, not gas, and oil. americans don't make that partition enough. jonathan: and the timeframe for doing this, an immediate ban on russian oil. that is the view from jp morgan. $106 90 eight cents on wti this moring. the morning to you worldwide -- 100 six dollars 98 cents on wti this warning. good morning to you worldwide. ritika: in ukraine, president

volodymyr zelenskyy says a long anticipated russian offensive has begun. russian forces are said to be targeting the donbass region in the eastern part of the country or get the assault is taking place along a front of more than 300 miles. it is a fresh blow to russian billionaires. as an advisor reboot has dropped the curtain on the era of foreign stock listing. he has signed off on amendments that allow -- on illegal on the mitts that allow russians to list in foreign markets. measures include general pleasures for more credit and other financial support. the people's bank of china is urging lenders to boost help for industries such as tourism, catering, and retail. investors are rapidly getting out of stocks. last week, u.s. -- saw their biggest outflows.

that is according to bank of america. meanwhile, european funds have experienced a ninth straight week of outflows. bloomberg has learned cryptocurrency startup blockchain.com is planning an ipo could take place this year. blockchain.com says a funding round is valued at $14 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would point out that the 1994 cycle where we raised the

policy rate 300 basis points in the year, in that cycle there was a 75 basis points increase at one point. so i would not rule it out, but it is not my base case. jonathan: this at the moment is the biggest nonstory. james bullard of the fed. "i would not rule it out, but it is not my base case." ultimately, his base case is 50 basis points i will see you there, -- 50 basis points. i will see you there, may 4 for the fed. lisa: can i break in on this? it is hard not to fix it on comments suggesting a 75 basis point rate hike is not off the table for good reason. it is because right now, people are really understanding the fed has not gotten the situation under control. so how much do they need to shock the market? that concept is rattling the market. jonathan: i think the more

interesting is that perhaps he wants a three handle by year end. that is the story for jim bullard. if he was leading the committee, they may be his base case would be something other than 50 basis points, but he's not. so trying to get the committee to move 75 on may 4 is not part of the conversation, is it? tom: we need to frame this part of the conversation. it is really important. mr. bullard is not welcome at the st. louis cardinals box seats that he has, but this is a guy who wrote about regime change and a modern siri which the fed has almost stumbled into. we are in a regime change, and in his own way, leading the discussion on dudley, but in a different way. jonathan: he showed me some shredded money from the money museum at the saint louis fed. tom: i've been there. very good. jonathan: i'm not sure what the message underpinning that particular message was. are you trying to make a trip? tom: road trip to a cardinals

game with mr. bullard. jonathan: i am down for that one. tom: let's move on from 75 basis points to 75 people standing in line at tsa. kriti gupta provides wisdom. kriti: we've got to talk about the mask mandate dropped after a federal judge basically overturned the ruling saying that in public laces, whether it comes to metro lines, airlines, uber rides, you no longer have to wear a mask. that is important when it comes to the airline industry, which has been lobbying more and more for the biden administration to drop this mandate. it also comes after the cdc extended that mandate to may 3. my chart of the day actually puts that into perspective. with the tsa checkpoint throughput, a lot of fancy words for homely passengers are flying through the airline industry in the united states, you can see we are nearly back to prepend them at levels. the hiccup -- to pre-pandemic levels. the hiccup is how that is affecting airline stocks. if you were to overlay a chart for the industry, it would show we are aligned until the last

couple months, which would show a complete drop. it has everything to do with commodities like jet fuel the labor shortage. tom: and there's the talk of energy commodities. we talk about commodities in the business media world. oil, oil, oil, gold, oil, silver , more gold talk, oil, oil. simon casey has legit expertise in this. bloomberg news managing editor and truly in cycle peter on the soft commodities like corn to the moon and the rest of it. thank you so much for joining this morning. let's talk about the immediate, which is a lot of snow across america, and that is the winter wheat that makes the durham pasta for jon ferro. is winter wheat really threatened? ? is our pasta crop threatened? simon: it depends what you mean by threatened. conditions are certainly worsening and the data we had out yesterday from the usda showed that the good to

excellent condition across the crop has gone down, covering 30% or so for the entire crop in north america. so it is not good. there still will be a crop. it is not as good as it could be , and this comes on top of everything else. we have been talking about this for weeks now. the war, the impact on supplies coming out of the black sea, fertilizer inflation stock, which is rippling around the world. we will have ramifications the on this year, even if the war does and at some point within the near future. this whole confluence of events is going to continue to reverberate. lisa: you raise a really good point, the cost of fertilizer has gone up from the sleep. how much have we included that in the equation in the united states, and how much is it considered the increased demand globally, especially from

ukraine and russia, doesn't make it onto the market? simon: it is certainly factored in the price. the increase in fertilizer prices, right now we are seeing farmers around the world change their planting decisions. here in the u.s., but also in place is like india, really everywhere. it is difficult to pull that apart from the immediate supply disruptions from the war, but it is definitely fundamental to what we are seeing right now. lisa: i'm watching corn carefully, climbing to the highest since 2012 in the united states. i wonder whether the u.s. continue to push ethanol at a time when corn prices are so high. can they continue to push this as a supplement to other oil and gas supplies as a way to stave off some of the increases on that spectrum of the commodity scale? simon: ever since the renewable fuel standard came in during the last decade, this has been a big debate going on in the

background. should we be using food as a fuel for cars? as you know, it is intensely political in the u.s. it has got a lot of support from the farm states. for that reason, no president can really afford to tinker with it too much. as you know, biden came out in the last couple of weeks and pledged to support sales of ethanol with the higher version of the ethanol fuel that is out there and some stations to extend the sales of that, the ee 15 blend. there is still speculation that ultimately he could do something drastic and reverse course on the rfs ultimately, but we'll prices right now have tempered their gains. the gasoline price is not as high as they were a few weeks ago. so the way the political calculus is working right now, maybe the biden administration could keep it where it is. but if we see corn prices go

beyond where they are now, we were at a 13 year high. we are only about $.40 a bushel off of all-time highs, and you've got to think based on global fundamentals and what we have seen in recent weeks, corn could take out that record high. it could move higher. it could be nine or even $10 a bushel perhaps sometime this year. maybe the political conversation shifts and maybe the political conversation in this country and around the world is no longer so fixated just on energy prices, but talks about food affordability and global jonathan: tremendously important . simon casey, bloomberg news deputy managing director for it is a question you have asked. what is it coming back down to? tom: i am going to go to corn which is not that big a deal, but you get substitution effects with soybeans as well. it is a lot more complex than

just trotting out the price of a bushel of corn. there's a lot more going on here. we've got to study that in the coming weeks. jonathan: coming up, michael bell of jp morgan asset management as we have a little bit of a lift on the s&p, almost 0.1%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we have seen a true regime shift. >> right now we've got to deal with the disruptions in food markets, the rise in food prices. >> you are seeing the consumer generally still plugging along, spending very strongly. >> the fed needs to readjust policy to the current circumstances. >> whether it happens in 2023 or 2024, that depends on the fed. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a most