>> a lot of investors are bracing themselves ahead of this big fed move. >> to what extent does consumption start to d accelerate, or from a post? >> what the fed needs to do is tighten conditions, and they have not done that? >> it is undoubted that we are seeing a slowdown in economic activity and the fed pressing hard on the brakes. >> at some point, they will have to judge between accepting a recession, or embracing stagflation. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. teachers are positive on the s&p. netflix stock is down by 27%. tom: it's not just down, it is the way it is down. they have not found a way to

recalibrate. this is 27%, maybe 20%, moments ago to 252. that is a level -- this is a stocking cast. we can talk about it all our. we are not going to do that. boy, what a lesson be and what a structural shift for the industry. jonathan: nathanson asking the right question britt is a cheaper to step in. they argue, not yet. the price target is not far away. 25331. the previous price target was 350. previous close, 348. tom: as i sat with alex web and les sour, i'm going to go to what the others do that don't have the netflix power. what is paramount plus do this morning? jonathan: what is the pricing content now, that you have a big content buyers saying we don't see the growth. lisa: the death of content is king. it is all about buying the right content, and the skies your limit.

have we seen a shift in that? i keep wondering, how much is this a specific story to netflix and the reopening tray. how much is this a representation of how inflation can cause consumers to cut back on other expenses in their households? jonathan: a question we ponder often run ethics earnings -- if i am in the south side, how do we get to a situation where we go through a quarter, they know the streets are possibly 2.5 million, they are -200 k, we don't get some kind of profit warning from the company? how does that come about? i don't understand that. we're just a 2.5 million for the last quarter. 2.5 million positive for the current quarter. and it's down like this. a 4.5 million spread from where the market was and where this company is. tom: you're going to kill me on this. arrogance. jonathan: is this going to fix it? -27% a single day? tom: arrogance is cultural. if a ball bearing company in

ohio did this, they would be hammered. jonathan: they're getting hammered right now. tom: i'm talking about at the board level, the legal level as well. these people think they have a different playbook. jonathan: something to say to reed hastings? tom: i don't think this is a personal thing. i give apple freedom, and apple has the luxury to make money, but i will defer to michael nathanson. he is been brilliant on this. dan ives tweeted out on this this morning. we have that yet? our control room is buried with news. chris, get that tweet up right now. this is dan ives, away from netflix. his guy has had a homerun out of left field on caution on netflix. dan ives, here. this text eps season is going to be have sent have-nots. he goes on -- a cloud for what we have seen. work from home, covid growth, poster child stories will fade. jonathan: including netflix and

zoom, etc.. we will return to the story through the morning. the stock is down by 27%. tom: it's just killing me. jonathan: i don't know of reid is going to make a call. futures are unchanged. slightly down. talk about the bond market come up very briefly. a positive real yield on a nominal 10 year yield. we are down seven basis points to 2.8628. the euro is straightly stronger come up .6%. the dollar to .86. a rate hike from the ecb? lisa: possibly another one to follow later in the year. because of how aggressive inflation has been, we will get a sense of whether some of the hawkish talk is making any difference. at 10 a.m., the u.s. marched of existing home sales is coming out. it is an expectation of deceleration. people are less willing to go in and out bid prices because

mortgage rates are the highest, going back to 2011, at a 5% level. are we going to see that deceleration in momentum? we did not see that yesterday. housing is starting on the upside. the fastest pace going back to 2006. how much has the fed really continue to fall behind, given the fact that having come through with a 50 basis point rate hike. if not come through as quickly as many people said they would. we have a slew of fed speakers ahead of that quite. -- quiet time. mary daly and charlie evans, 11:30 a.m.. we want to see what they have to say. in particular, charlie evans talking about how he does not see rates going to 3.5%, as we heard from others. perhaps, two in a quarter or 250 by the end of the year. how much do we get edification of a consumer slowdown in the beige book that tom keene scrutinizes, that will come out at 2 p.m.. after market, the earnings break continues.

tesla, interesting to hear what they have to say about their china production, as well as elon musk's indication around twitter. jonathan: we need to read around shanghai and a big way. thank you, as always. let's kick off the conversation in the bond market. for the first time since 2020, we had a positive real yield on a 10 year treasury. this morning, although bit early today, we are joined today. a research strategist at alpha simplex. how much of a game changer is that for the market worldwide? katy: we are moving in sort of an interesting direction. i would say that the question is just going to be, what is the headwind that it could could create longer term? it is still relatively small. for us, it is a difference between how high inflation is, and the nominal rates. is that eventually going to push even farther for real rates? we are kind of watching this closely. it is still very, very far apart, is what i would say. tom: good morning. the managed futures were a bible

years to go on what to do with commodities. i'm thinking of monro trout in bermuda, this morning. you are one of the experts on this. to cut to the chase, if commodities restructure now, where they are currently trend able for managed futures? katy: what is fascinating about trend following is that we follow with the market is doing, as opposed to what it should do. it is particularly these moments right now where we feel like the market should do this. things should get better. inflation should dissipate. we actually start to see tremendous trends being quite profitable in these markets, so we actually have seen one of the most interesting short on such trend as a trend follower in decades, this year, as well as commodities. it is continue to move, but i will tell you, our signals have dissipated some and commodities, just with recent turbulence. lisa: given so much volatility,

will these trend following strategies still work? do they function the way you expected they would? katy: in the sense that we build models that try to build on this, so as volatility and uncertainty build, we adjust our positions and we see how much signal we have. it is so fascinating. we have zero signal and equity markets this year. that is very consistent with the idea that it is very much either right or left, either we recover, or we have a very challenging recession. but it is very unclear at this point. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but it is so important, and as we know, it is all built off of the marco -- micros systems systems, until the bloomberg terminal showed up. can you do trend based analysis? let's go back to welles wilder

in 1978. can you do trend based analysis now, given what the central bank has dealt you? katy: i get that question a lot. the point is, central banks create different trends. this year, they've created eight fantastic trend for us because they have sat around for a year saying transitory. now this year, they have telegraphed a very clear rising rate environment. that is because one of the most spectacular long trends in yields that we have seen in decades. so, what we see is trends change over time, and they are just eight function of what the environment is. our job is to move with things that are moving as markets move, especially when people don't like it. jonathan: as always, fantastic catch up with you at alpha simplex on the bond market. commodities as well. speaking of commodities, little later this morning, we will catch up with christie at j.p. morgan. we have some big calls over there. 1.25 on brent for 120 two.

150 for 2023. tom: are we getting in eu oil cut off russia? jonathan: and what does that mean? what does that actually look like? all at once, absolute? if it is, it makes a big difference. i imagine you can reroute. tom: i have a cross going on radio. never forget how tight this crosses in the oil market. the answer is, even if we institute over time, how the loss will tell us, it will be disruptive to the market. lisa: i do wonder about the oil gas divergence. it is one of the main products that europe relies on for russia. how much does that end up sort of being carved out in ways that insulate the european economy for a bit longer. jonathan: they're not going to touch it, right? that's what we seen. lisa: that's the signal from the

market where you see the prices come down dramatically, but that is the consensus right now. jonathan: through the market, discreetly. neff looks is down 27%, but we have to talk about the bond market as well. the 10 year treasury is approaching 3%. it backed up a bit, and it is down seven basis point spirit was: 2.87. in japan, they are protecting this upper band of something like 25 basis points? you have a global bond market setting up. the boj is trying to restrict his 10 year yield. the japanese yen come over the last month, really taking it on the chin. tom: you got me in trouble the last hour. you're going to do it to hours in a row. i'm just going to suggest, matthew morgan says that a week please -- services possible. jonathan: tk, some people want to talk to.

unchanged on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: news from around the world, this is first word. russia is calling this the second phase of the war in ukraine. all indications that it could be better for russia than the first. russian forces are threatening an area at the top of the eastern border that holds about 40% of the ukrainian troops in the region. the assault has been combined with a massive air and artillery bombardment. china says it will continue boosting strategic ties with russia. it indicated that the relationship remains solid, despite growing concerns of allegations of war crimes in the invasion of ukraine. trade between china and russia grows in the first quarter, and much of that was before the war began. the binding mist ration has not figured out how to respond to a federal judge striking down the mask requirement for plane and train travel. the white house and various agencies are struggling to coordinate a legal strategy,

more than a day after it lost support among some democrats in congress. well before the court calling. netflix is throwing it out after they lost customers for the first time a decade. there introducing a cheaper as ported option for the next couple of years. it will crackdown on people sharing their passwords. netflix rejectable lose 2 million customers. shares plummeting today. global news, 24 hours a day on bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2400 journalists and 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> i'm a bigger fan of consumer choice, and allowing consumers who would like to have a lower price and our advertising tolerant. it makes a lot of sense. that is something we are looking at, trying to figure it out over the next year or two. jonathan: that was a tough call. the ceo of netflix with the stock getting absently hammered. from new york city, good morning. s&p futures are just about positive. the nasdaq 100 is -.2 percent. one stock to talk about, so let's do it. netflix is down by 27% be it we were looking for something close to 2.5 million subscribers, we got -200 k. they're looking at something close to 200 million subscribers, in addition. we have a projection from this company of -2 million. that is a massive spread between

where the street wise and where this company is projecting. tom: any number of people taking a victory lap. wedbush, and of course, michael nathanson, who may join us later this morning. right now, somebody who absolutely crushed this call -- neutral forever, like 2.5 years with a recent underperformance, but flat out, he is basically never said by necklace. timothy nolan is joining us. out of london, with j.p. morgan. he is the australian shop. tim nolan, what did you see on october 2019 where you said run? tim: we had a buy rating on netflix going into the time when the steering war really got underway way. -- underway. we downgraded to a neutral around the time disney plus was launching.

the rationale was simple and it is coming to bear very clearly, which is more competition from major content analysis, going to record the consumer, it will keep the pressure on netflix. it takes away from their ability to add subs as progressively as they did for years and years, and it will raise the pressure on content costs. we have seen all that come to bear very clearly, especially in the last two quarters. yesterday, last night's results from netflix were really the same thing as the quarter before , with subs missed, a guidance figure which is a lot lower than the street expected, and again, a comment that operating margins will be -- now they are saying flat in 2023 after having cut the guidance for 2022. jonathan: your words -- netflix of slight dead money. growth is more like that of a traditional media company. as you pointed out, the big news is a concession that they have

to pursue. a supported offering. how much is that a game changer? tim: it is huge. it is unexpected in some ways. i did not think netflix would come out with an ad supported business model plan this soon. i think, maybe it was not surprised that they would eventually do it. they are saying it will be a year or two, probably, until he can get it rolled out. that is why i say it is dead money. there are good upsides and opportunities for this, but it will take a while to get it all going. we've done some work on some of the peers in the direct and streaming space. disney plus and now warner bros. and discovery, laundry discovery plus. -- watching discovery plus. they have added ad supported options which have led to about a double, which attracted more

subscribers. it is a nice set up for both sides. the consumer can be attracted to sign onto the service, the provider in this case, netflix, and make more money, giving how strong the advertising technology is. high-value targeted ads. it will drive even the higher arc for the service. lisa: there is a question as to whether this is an acknowledgment of netflix, but also the streaming industry at large. this is no longer a growth area. do you think netflix is a specific story, or do you expect the other streaming services to follow with advertising, and frankly, with lower projections for subscribers? tim: i think streaming is a growth business. for sure. particularly, internationally come outside of the united states. there is a lot of runway to grow. efflux is a huge head start, and they have a lot of progress, i think, to make. i think, in a case of a broader

media company, streaming within the traditional business makes the broader business look not so exciting. netflix has a case where it is almost like they are transitioning from an and internet company to a media company. i've spoken about this publicly. they aim to provide the metrics investors look for in media come these in the past. strong revenue growth, high margins. netflix will have that. it got so high, and they move so far over the previous 10 years, now, everyone is catching up to them with all of this competition coming. they are trying to hold onto 10% revenue growth in the future, which for a traditional media company, was pretty good. they are getting margins back up again, moving into 2024. jonathan: we touched on this at the top of the hour and we went back and forth on this. what you make of the

communication to allow the streets run with 2.5 million's subs, and the same for this quarter. to have the street at 2.5 million and then project you may it what do you make of the fact that they didn't get out ahead of this? tim: well, a couple of things. by my count, netflix has missed its guidance. it is for out of the last seven quarters. they hit it right on the head, or be that money -- number -- beat that number for many years. they did not clearly expect this number to come in solo. they would not have given that guidance number we months ago. that said, i don't think netflix is as focused on the raw sub numbers as the street is. actually, i think that is the right approach. they talk about what they can generate. they talk about user engagement. the talk about revenues. i've said this for a long time. the raw sub number is important,

but really, it is about the revenue earnings. as netlist becomes more of a media type of company, that is what matters. i think their focus on driving engagement, their effort now to convert some of those 100 million free writing users at the service to become paying subs, the effort to get a lower price service, to get more subscribers on, all that is designed to generate subs, and then to generate more revenue growth and ultimately more profitability. i think that is where the focus is more than the sub number itself. jonathan: great to catch up. you reiterate -- they underperformed for is good to catch up. that stock is down by just under 27%. 26.8%. tom: for those that remember the wonderful experiment of verizon and at&t coming alley media moguls, hollywood media moguls, i think what is interesting here, mr. nolan, for exactly how does one discovery find

synergies, and at what rate do they find synergies? jonathan: we've got a call on that, tom. 10 seconds, what is that? tom: it is too early. what i'm saying if they have to cut a lot of costs, and fast. jonathan: from your city, this is bloomberg. -- from new york city, this is bluebird. -- this is bluebird. -- this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. netflix is down by about 27%. equity futures are doing ok on the s&p. we will hear from tesla and united. the nasdaq down a little bit more than .1%. the 10 year treasury, 10-year bond, 10-year jgb. bfa believes now is the right time to get long. they believe inflation has peaked already for the year. slowly will fade into 2023. as that fades, the inflation

panic will proceed, and they believe the long and can decline. in the bond market for germany, we are facing the prospect of rate hikes from the ecb. there was a governing council member from latvia this morning teeing up the potential for a potential rate hike in july. pick your poison, which side of the trade you want to be on. in japan, they have an upper ceiling on where they want the 10-year yield to be on the japanese 10-year, and it is 25 basis points. we are there now. how sustainable is that policy given what is happening in the bond market? tom: it is not, has never been. it has been a fiction waiting for the rest of the world to adjust. the rest of the world is adjusting right now.

jonathan: treasury yields are broken out in the last couple of months. japan has to do more and more work to keep it at 25 basis points. add in the fact that we also have a positive real yield in america for the first time on the 10 year going back to 2020. that has been the story overnight. lisa: has it truly been priced into equity markets, if that is the case? jonathan: which side of the trade is bramo on? let's say good morning to romaine bostick. >> you have been talking about the decades long streak of growth after growth, coming to an end for netflix, a loss of 200,000 subscribers. the tone further out into 2022, 2023 was not any better even

though they didn't give any hard numbers. whether that is something broader for the industry, disney, fubo, all down today. that will surpass the 25% drop we saw in 2012 when it came out with an inflection point, people weren't doubting the growth story then. reed hastings was able to win back a lot of analysts on the street and investors. the stock was one of the ten best performing in the nasdaq 100. today, this is the worst performer in the nasdaq 100 to start the year. we should point out, this stock had 37 buy ratings at the start of the year, now at 21.

that was the drama yesterday after the bell, probably tonight, elon musk and tesla. it is all about what he has to say about the future of the factory, the cyber truck, all of these grand ambitions he has. and of course they will be questions about his involvement in tesla. ibm one of the bright spots on the day. lululemon coming out with their five-year plan. basically, they will refocus on menswear, trying to get you out of that burberry. jonathan: you know the trend on wall street. certain groups of individuals are wearing lululemon pants to work. how do you feel about them? >> they should just be them. patagonia sweater, lululemon pants. i bought my first pair of lemon

pants over the pandemic. jonathan: would you wear them to the close? with the patagonia vest? >> i'm not sure the guy on the side of the building would like that. jonathan: romain may debut the lulu pants later on. tk, i could see that, you with the vest, pants, bowtie? he does yoga. family yoga. and he makes the breathing noises and everything. lisa: he is falling off the chair. please come back to us. tom: it is scary. i don't get it. jonathan: my advice to newly minted graduates, dress

properly. that's it. tom: you have gotten me in so much trouble today. i am going radio silence. good morning on bloomberg radio, television. jim bianco joins us now, founder of the yunker research. i love your chart where you say, everyone understand, the week japanese yen matters to american investors. why? jim: the japanese are the largest country that owns our securities, more than china. $1.3 trillion. as they try to haul japanese government bond yields at 25 basis points, when every other yield in the world is going up, they are increasing their spread to the rest of the world, making their currency unattractive. if they keep doing it, and the yen down 12% in a month, it will

have big implications for their financial markets and economy, and we are all going to feel it. tom: 90 days ago, at deutsche bank, making clear that the clear concern was the valuation of currencies against an ever stronger resilient dollar. at what point does yen tip into some point of the evaluation panic japan has to act? jim: they are close to it now. they have lost 12% of their value in a month, they approached 130 on the yen overnight. the boj has a difficult question to answer. they can hold their yield curve control peg at 25 basis points to the currency go, or they can let the peg go and defend the currency. they cannot do both at the same time. we are getting close to the point where they will have to think more about their currency than the yield curve bank.

jonathan: should people -- lisa: should people be paying more attention to japanese monetary policy considering the japanese investor owns even more treasuries than any other external investor? jim: they should. as their currency goes come interest-rate, that will maintain its relative attractiveness of the u.s. treasury market. shouldn't they let the peg go in interest rates rise a lot in japan, and we saw that last fall when australia abandoned yield curve control, a lot of those investors buying treasury securities -- 1.3 trillion -- may find attractive yields in japan for the first time in a generation, and that will lessen the demand for treasuries at a time when the fed is leaving the market, when some are saying the bond market is un investable because of the higher rates.

you will just compound the problem in the bond market. lisa: what does that translate into in terms of how much higher yields can go? jim: when you see yields do what they have done this year, on a total return basis, when you factor in the yield and price, this has been the worst year in the history of statistics. it is down 10% for the year. that is an extraordinarily large move for the bond market, and it's only the middle of april. as we continue to see this happen, you have to worry -- and i am -- that there will be unintended consequences. the bond market, banking system, financial system is not designed to have the entire bond market lose 10% of its value in four months. every time we have seen this, we have run into problems. i'm not saying we have problems now, and it may be a wild off,

but when you see extraordinary moves like this, i hate to say it, they keep going like this until something breaks. this is what happened in 1999, 1987, when you had huge rises in yield and everyone said it was over, and it was not over until something broke. that is what i'm getting afraid of. jonathan: conversations with you are always valuable. when you say something may break, what have you got in mind at the moment? jim: either the stock market wakes up to higher interest rates, they recognize that higher rates are bad, or that higher rates that translate into mortgages and borrowing costs really shut the economy down fast, or some kind of a plumbing problem like we saw in 20 with the repo market. this stuff is very complicated. when you see extraordinary moves like this, you never know what impact it will have. jonathan: jim bianco of bianco

research. a big move on treasuries and bunds. tom: moments ago of easter research from deutsche bank. i am not sure they are all on the same page, but he makes clear in a wonderful chart, the set of super we currencies right now. the turkish lira leads the way, russian ruble, no surprise there. but the big dog in the room is japanese yen is one of those weak currencies. that speaks to the manipulation of the government in japan. jonathan: coming up, the story in the commodity market. very happy to say we have a fantastic lineup for you today including christyan malek i'm jp morgan on why they think crude can get to 150 next year. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world,

i'm ritika gupta. let's get to first word news. a small but growing number of senior kremlin insiders are quietly questioning vladimir putin's decision to go to war. they believe it was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back four years. these people see no chance the russian president will change course and no prospect of any challenge to him at home. in shanghai, businesses are gradually resuming operations in the midst of that massive lockdown. many factories are able to restart using a closed loop system, where workers live on-site site and undergo regular testing. two thirds of the 25 million residents are still locked down. elon musk has given fresh fuel that he would tender an offer for twitter shares. the board has yet to make a formal response to the $43

billion takeover, but it has adopted a poison pill option to defend itself. grubhub says it is considering strategic options for its u.s. unit, less than one year after buying it. that highlights how the end of the pandemic has turned the food delivery industry from a hot property into a struggling sector. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> probably we are going beyond neutral. that is my expectation when i

see they are taking out special factors. i'm still left with 3, 3 .5% inflation. if we have 2.5 percent inflation, there is more to ponder. jonathan: that was charles evans. from new york city this morning, the equity market is shaping up as follows. the s&p 500 up .1%. the nasdaq down almost .1%. netflix is down only 7% after a wildness yesterday, projecting even more pain for the quarter. may 11, that is how long you have to wait until walt disney. a few weeks away. tom: i am focused on the mourner discovery pat, what they do with whatever the debt number is. i take the point on disney and the rest of them, but wow,

mourner-discovery, the merger of 47 networks. jonathan: cnn plus, you have to wonder what will happen with that. tom: and animal planet. i have like seven things i am doing. jonathan: have football on paramount, hulu for formula one. it is getting messy. tom: december 1, 2022, you'll remember this conversation. 100 pages that jamie dimon will read at jp morgan, an exceptionally brave document on energy. christyan malek joins us now, director of global energy. he has written an absolute mandate for the superiority and continuation of hydrocarbons. it is without question the most

anti-woke document i've seen in years on wall street. how are people going to react to your pro-oil call? christyan: when we set about doing this report, we made sure that we were agnostic of all fuels, thinking of energy rather than barrels, megawatts, jules, the calorific value of energy. but me built out looking across all fuels, we made sure that we started with clean energy. we built out renewables using our utilities team. as we went through the use and application of these fuels, worked backwards by end use, we found ourselves back in the fossil fuel category.

if we have a deficit of around 80 jules, how do we solve for that in the medium-term? by doing the work, we came back to filling that with oil and gas as a bridging fuel to make sure that we can deliver this deficit. otherwise, very high oil prices. tom: we are doing an exercise in thermal energy here. lose the thermodynamics and tell me where the desire is to invest capital for the rising oil demand that is at the heart of your work. christyan: the key take away is that energy demand growth will exceed energy supply growth by 20% by 2030. the only way to fill that is by investing $1.3 trillion. that is not just reducing the energy but also delivering. these two axis are generating,

through all the kinds of fuels we are looking at, as well as distributing it to the end user. the combination of that, $1.3 trillion, we have a lot of money to spend across all fuels. this deficit suggest to us that we are embarking on an energy super cycle across all forms of energy and elevated prices for some time. lisa: this statistic from your report stood out to me. global supplies are set to fall 20% below demand out to 2030. how high can prices go? we are not just talking about the russian-ukraine issue, but on a structural basis, where do you see oil prices hovering? christyan: we have to assume that if we don't see the investment, prices will be higher for longer. we have set a long-term view for oil around $80, the marginal

cost to deliver, produce, and deliver that. it will need opec, the majors, shale companies to meet that incremental demand. one point we have made is that oil is not fungible. you cannot use solar power to produce petrochemicals. you have to produce oil for some industries and right now we are falling short. similarly for gas prices, renewable power prices across the complex, we are seeing significant underinvestment. not just that, in fossil fuel, you have the shortage of capital but plenty of resource. in clean energy, you have plenty of capital but a shortage of metals, supply chain constraints. wherever you look, whether it is producing or distributing it, there are constraints that could see over shoots. we have talked about, what is

the global spare capacity of energy? within oil we are now at 3% in terms of opec's capacity. when we talked in november, we talked five, 7%, and that was conservative. that means we could see over shoots with volatility, which flows into what this means for social unrest, the implication of societies. jonathan: i have to get to a final point, and forgive me for asking the simplistic question, but the best way to overweight this, through commodities or the energy industry? christyan: you want to be long oil come along renewables come along energy. within those things, you look at the best things that offer the combination of valuation, cash returns, and outside volume growth. it is not really barrels but essentially jules volume growth

to meet the deficit. we are down to companies like shell because it is long lng. rwe, to enjoy the deficits of renewable energy we will be seeing. exxon. one thing also that is important, they have to do this while lowering carbon emissions. it will be important and how these factors evolve and rerate. jonathan: congratulation to you and the team for putting this out. christyan malek from jp morgan. tom: i think we have led with a lot of coverage on climate change, the paris accords years ago. this is an absolute mandate for oil. jamie dimon, buried in the letter, says that oil is essential and critical.

jonathan: what did you call it this morning? tom: this note is a clarion call for global finance. jonathan: from new york city this morning. tk may be back in the next hour.

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>> if inflation starts to roll over, some of that pressure is taken off the fed. >> we need to see rates rise maybe another 25 basis once. >> the fed is more hawkish than they have ever been. >> they will be tightening in an economy that is slowing, not accelerating, and that will make a softer landing a very difficult task. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. you are watching us or you are

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