>> i think we have to wait and see where global yields are heading. >> when you'd see yields do what they have done so far this year, this has been the worst year in the history of statistics. >> the longer part of the car looks appropriate. i think we expect the fed to move up the short end. >> the fed is in uncharted territory. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: live for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, chairman powell and president lagarde coming up. tom: it will be interesting to see with the central banks do and this will be in the central bank and imf meetings as well. but i would suggest there is a firm and under all of this including resilient equity. you have to tell me what to do with a resilient 10 year yield. it is unchanged and skate

lagarde and powell phase. jon: moving the bar -- bond market so far this year and big moves in the equity market. esa numbers from tesla after the close yesterday including united airlines. earnings has been tremendous. united airlines up 7.5%. kirby, who we will catch up later this morning with -- with later this morning, -- tom: that a sector dissector after the netflix debacle yesterday. our guest at world headquarters yesterday and he makes clear it is single digit it is pretty good single-digit earnings growth. what is wrong with that? jon: yields higher, 10 year yields up 287 on the tenure. it is not just the u.s. treasury market reacting, it is the german bond market leading with an ecb conversation about rate hikes getting more fuel from various speakers. lisa: the vice president of the ecb saying he could end some of

the bond purchases by july, setting up for rate hikes. 75 basis points of rate increases over the euro region. you can argue whether that is realistic. if the long and has a bid there is conviction that the fed and ecb can tame inflation over the longer-term, a lot of people do wonder what it will take to get there, whether they can ease into that or whether it will be something more dramatic, what we're hearing out of deutsche bank. jon: i have struggled to get my head around the idea we might have a positive rate at the ecb before year end. that is something i'm still stuck in with. lisa: that would be the first time since 2012 and sure enough you see yields on the front end surge to close around that time. how do we get there considering the fact they are hiking into deceleration, into an ever more unclear scenario, especially with what happened in mariupol overnight. jon: the german two-year up

nine basis points. tom: let the markets saw this for lagarde into see the yields lift across the german curve, it is taught not to see a negative statistic on the bloomberg terminal. this swiss 20 year, which i talk about, nobody else cares. this swiss 20 year is one big figure, 1.0 0% signaling how far we have come in the changed landscape for lagarde. jon: you overindulge. it is ok. keep looking at the swiss bond market. tom: i do. i look at it from relief and sara, a cappuccino cost $14. >> equity futures up 7/10 of 1% on the s&p come up 29 points, so the nasdaq the rebound really yesterday, some stocks around the netflix story and facebook meta-got hammered after the back of those numbers. tom: i have to get briefed on arsenal. jon: we are to 87 on a 10 year

yield. lisa: i want to use that. go to lease on the wall, i picture myself end up against the wall. there are number of really important events. the flexure one being what we will hear from christine lagarde and jay powell. 8:30 a.m. time, a read on the u.s. labor market, jobless claims, talking about a fully employed america or are we? how much do we continue to talk about that at a time where the participation rate has not gone back to where it was. does the nature of the conversation change if jobless claims go ever lower given the fact so many people are on the sidelines and we have not climbed back to pre-pandemic participation rates. 9:45 we hear from president biden giving an update on the latest in russia and ukraine. i'm particularly interested today because russia is claiming they have taken over and -- taken over mariupol, the key land bridge between crimea and russia. how much does this change the nature of the conversation and frankly what the allies are

willing to do in terms of what their supplying ukraine and what kind of redlines and sanctions, further sanctions they can impose. 12:50 p.m., this is what i'm watching, chair powell and christine lagarde at an imf seminar. let's take a look. two-year yields climbing in germany to the highest levels going back to 2014. this really is a question mark. can ecb truly raise rates two or more times this year, given the fact people are still talking about stagflation and much bigger recession risk in europe at a time when germany and other nations are seriously talking about banning oil from russia. how does this work without torpedoing the economy? jon: the murder overnight, modeling a3 handle on chinese gdp for 2022. they dropped their forecast down from 4.3% to 3.9% given everything that has happened with this country. you have to believe some of that

spills into europe and elsewhere. tom: in the economics away from ukraine, i do think this is the biggest issue out there. i will china adapt and adjust. none of the untold stories of the last three days is the giveback and remain be from 6.37 the weaker you on. yes it is managed, i will not make a big deal about it but it bears watching. jon: let's kick out the conversations with the chief fx strategist. your words, on track to tighten unless the elephant gets in the way, what is the elephant? >> the elephant as the war in ukraine. at this point in time, particularly the price of natural gas in europe whether it continues to flow, it is cheaper now than at the start of the year. i do not know how to quantify the risk that either the war escalates significantly or drags on and has an impact on growth or more directly economically important, the gas taps get

turned off even temporarily, to which point european economic outlook deteriorates. tom: are we seeing the country depreciations against the dollar now that will lead to an immediate instability, or we are -- or are we truly a way of some of the fears about depreciation as a tool? >> i think getting your currency weaker is less powerful than it was 20 years ago, 30 years ago, so it is not a good a tool, so that is not quite as scary but the dollar is strong and this is going to have an impact as other people join, and it can get out of control if for example the chinese do not go for a 1.5% in their currency but go for 75%, then the yen would weaken and euro would weaken but then you get a snowball effect and get a strong dollar back. lisa: where is the threshold,

especially at a time where you talk about china? we see renminbi weaken against the dollar and see these other currencies. what is the threshold for the global economy for the dollar? >> it is a move of significant, of more than 10% as a starting point. anything less is exciting for people like me. i don't know how much it really rolls for the global economy. if you had a 10% move in the u.n. and the yen weaker 10% as a result of that, we are talking 140 nearly on dollar-yen, europeans feel that pretty hard. euro-dollar has a look at the other side, then i think you might hear something from the treasury and the states and the whole thing could get more political. jon: you spent a lot of time with smart people in foreign exchange. and many others as well, when

you have conversations about the ecb, do they believe they could get rates above zero this year because we hear from a lot of people there seems to be pushback. if people in london and europe if they believe that could happen this year. >> sure people do. particularly, certainly i speak to economists who look at what is happening and look at the data who detach themselves from what is going on in ukraine in the sense of just looking at the hard data at this point and filing inflation numbers and some of them certainly think this was a rate hike. this was a cycle that we need to normalize policy. as inflation the ecb cannot tolerate but everybody, i can't imagine anybody out there says yeah, but it just requires so much to go well. you don't want to have any follow-through, bond market,

spreads blowout, and so on. it is a big stretch the elephant is in the way. jon: wonderful to catch up. as always, socgen on the foreign exchange market and everything happening worldwide, they are skeptical mines. let's put it this way. you've been living with this rate story and so -- in europe for so long, it is hard to shake this idea that we can get positive again. when the facts change i change. there is no question it has been a shift over the last nine days and how do you recalibrate to it ? i bring into equities. we have these frameworks of what higher yields mean. to lisa's point, are we any near restricted.

what is restrictive in the bond market? lisa: how can we talk about the beginning of restrictive when we have negative real yields. they have not managed to stay above zero and you have inflation running above 8% if you take a look at cpi. that is clearly not restrictive. how high does it have to go and how long does it take for the transmission mechanisms to respond. they're not except for the housing market. jon: later we will catch up with another guest. tom: she was going along the x access. jon: up 1% on the s&p. yields are higher. a little later, chairman powell and president lagarde. this is bloomberg. >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. vladimir putin declared pc's a

key city of mario paul, the biggest taken during russia's two-month invasion. russia's defense minister says more than 2000 ukrainian troops are held up in an industrial complex in mario paul, demanding those troops surrender. the u.s. justice department will appeal a federal justice ruling that throughout requirement for public trans rotation, that sets of big legal fight that could last the on the midterm election. and airlines have dropped their own rules that some trans operators have less requirements in place. shares of tesla are rising. the electric vehicle maker reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter and beat estimates with a record profit. elon musk predicted an output would grow at a fast rate the rest of the year despite those supply chain issues. in china, president xi jinping defended the country's reliance on lockdown to fight the coronavirus despite mounting economic woes. he reaffirmed the underlying goals of minimizing debt and a video link speech to an asia

forum. china is in the midst of its worst covert outbreak since the beginning of the pandemic. i billionaire investor lost more than $430 million on a three-month that on netflix, and that capital management sold netflix earnings after the streaming tv pioneer reported a drop in customers. shares plunged 35% on wednesday. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the first priority is to make sure that their support to fill this financing gap in ukraine over the next three months. let me stress the 5 billion is to keep the economy functioning, it is amid -- to meet the reconstruction needs of ukraine that will be huge. jon: that's the imf managing director, from new york city this morning, good morning, futures up .75%. the numbers from the earnings of tesla, united airlines, looking decent. equity up by more than 1%, the catching a big, a 109 handle now. .6% into positive territory, off of the back of comments from the ecb vice president, chalking up

winding down qe by july and maybe surely thereafter. raising interest rates. >> part of the dialogue and it vent for end of april and part of this is the world bank talking to david malpass yesterday of the world bank, the managing director was last week in washington and now the imf meeting, danbury hoarding, is it the meetings in washington joining us now. an eventful brussels and this was coming up in moments. i want to go to you,, they are talking about spheres of interest. what is the russian sphere of interest at the end of the baltic sea and how immediate is that for sweden, finland, estonia, latvia, and lithuania. >> i think before you get into

the baltics, finland, sweden, i was there yesterday in helsinki and it was clear to me the two countries are going to apply for nato membership and do it quickly. if i have to do it, they would submit this by june. the reality is those are big aspirations for russia and i could be the ambition, perhaps yes. at this point, we see russia is not capable of conducting a full skill military war in ukraine and the whole focus for the russians is in east ukraine and mario paul and on bus. i think we have to be real about the capabilities of the russian federation. they talk big and there is a lot of bravado but on the ground we see today they are not capable of fully taking more you pull. vladimir putin said we have conquered and we will just leave, the steel plant to its own devices, but it reflects have not been able militarily to fully conquer ukraine. jon: -- tom: in your washington and the

focus is on president biden, there is a land bridge lisa mentioned through mario paul to crimea, i guess there is a land bridge in order from russia to leningrad, the ex clave that they have. how do we weigh ukraine versus the northern eastern european front? >> first we know this is an historic mission in terms of ukraine for president putin. in terms of the northern front, this is something he wants to protect in terms of interest. as you mentioned earlier, he definite he does not want the likes of sweden or finland to be joining nato because he believes this would be encroaching on his fear and protective space if you will. when it comes to ukraine, and this historic mission, mario paul is correct, there is a steel plant. the defense minister said there -- they are still held up. putin responded with i want to

completely block, i do not want to fly to be entering the steel plant. if he says he is liberated the city and we note this has been concern of allies, because it will connect done boss to crimea and give putin a strong footing in eastern ukraine. something he has not been able to do as of yet. at the same time, the president of the united states speaking around 9:45 a.m. where we are expecting more military aid to ukraine. a lot of this is the fear he will use everything he can to protect eastern ukraine. lisa: that's where want to go and weigh in on this, maria, is the takeover, reported takeover putin says of mariupol an escalation or de-escalation, given the fact i have a victory and now i can end this. >> i think it's more complicated than that. the ukrainian government will say as long as we have the steel

plan, and shows us they have not been able to fully take over the place. it is a-ok to conquer a city that's 80% to sort -- 80% destroyed and say we have liberated it but the steel plant continues. the ukrainian government will say as long as that steel plant is there, this is ukraine and we will continue to fight and will not surrender the city. if anything, the focus is turning to the done boss. -- dundas. we know that the soviet victory over nazi germany, he needs to get that victory. he needs to show something. when he tested the missile, all of this is for domestic consumption. the russian public is reeling from the cruiser ship that went down last week. he needs to show something presented as a victory and i am not sure mario paul -- mariupol will be enough. lisa: you talked about the press conference with president biden and we will be hearing from the

treasury secretary janet yellen :00 a.m. she walked out of the g20 meeting yesterday when the video appeared of the russian delegate . what are we expecting to hear in terms of additional sanctions, in terms of what they are prepared to go forward with has this conflict goes on. >> not just treasury secretary ellen walked out, we had andrew bailey from the bank of england, jay powell, a number of individuals walked out of the meeting and you can see it on canada's finance minister's twitter page, those waiting outside while you had russia talking. obviously this is symbolic because russia is still participating in the g20. what you can expect from yellen is how the sanctions of the united states and allies are imposing on the kremlin are starting to hurt russia economically. what we have not seen so far from the sanctions is being able to stop this war on the ground. jon: great to catch up as always. and marie horton alongside maria tadeo in brussels.

tons to get through including tesla, up by 7%. obvious he raising a price target by $140 to 11.75, implying decent upside from where we are now. at 10:48 and the free market. tom: it is a joy after the carnage of yesterday and netflix, well to see. when i look at the pe, i still go back and is tesla a tech or car company? jon: the broader company yesterday, do we have a netflix or market problem. for big tech yesterday, some of the names i mentioned earlier in the program, facebook, meta got hammered in yesterday's session. lisa: this had to do with perhaps two different types of companies. you have the cloud companies and the ones that have benefited from the lockdowns and pandemic and the ones that depend on consumer appetite. how much do we see dispersion and we will speak with denice, who has been talking about that later in the program. jon: looking forward to that later this morning, and i snapped back, the equity market up by little more than 1% on

that index on the s&p 500. futures up .75%. it yields higher as well, spending time on that this morning, up four basis points to 287.2 a. from new york, heard on radio and seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: back from yesterday's losses on the nasdaq 100, from new york, good morning. the nasdaq up a little more than 1%. looking and nasdaq 100, tesla at 4.7% of this particular index and tesla doing that in the free market. two names to look at, one is tesla and one is united airlines. tesla by a little more than 7%. united airlines really robust demand from the american consumer for both leisure and business travel as well. we catch up with scott kirby this morning,. let's look at the bond market picture and the united states and germany as well. let's look at the front end.

when you get someone straight down the middle, of the executive board of the governing council, the ecb vice president talking a potentially unwinding that qe program by july and following it up perhaps shortly after with the rate hike like it's your attention. tom: july's tomorrow isn't it? jon: if feels that way. when we talk about data dependence, they say what data, the elephant in the room for him is still at war. ukraine. tom: this is an important reset. there is still a war. we have to say that every day and we have to work out the policy and locations. the french as far as they concerned is pushing the european parliament to do some kind of crude russian crude ban, how that set things up for the ecb through the summer and into the back end of the year.

>> to get our next conversation, headlines from russia, the duma russia confirms the central bank is for a third term, i don't think there is a surprise there get but a surprise early in the morning as i scroll through and it is real simple, discussion of consulates in the baltic states. that sets up an important conversation with the european commissioner for trade, the former prime minister and joining us right now. we have many conversations over the years. i have to rip up the script and speak to you of the changes from lithuania to latvia up to estonia. and across to finland. your area is.

for that matter occurs to sweden to finland. >> good morning indeed. russia's aggression against ukraine. . clearly what the country sees a region like the baltic states like poland are looking for is nato's presence on the ground, strengthening of defense capabilities it is clear that if we do not stop putin in ukraine, he will enter further in his aggressive war. that is why it is important to make sure we provide all necessary support to ukraine to stop the war there. at the same time, preparedness in the region.

tom: this touches lithuania and poland, but seems to be front and center. tom: explained to bloomberg's audience how do we explain mr. pruden once some sort of bridge to his x-play. he can only get there by water. compare that to what we see on the black sea and the path -- path of russia to crimea. >> russia has a corridor of possibility to transport people and goods between mainland russia and colin grad to enclave, doing so both with railway and with road transport and also now when eu is putting lots of sanctions against russia, this corridor is not

subjected to sanctions. that is indeed more as an excuse, which russia is trying to use potentially to close down what is called a corridor, which is connecting poland and lithuania but it is all a territory of nato, which is why it is important they are proper nato defense plans in place. you also raise questions and finland and sweden as we know. both of those countries are currently considering a possible application to actually join nato. lisa: we are talking also about the potential consequences, additional consequences for russia, the number of european nations called for a full embargo of oil from russia, what with that due to member states in terms of economics?

>> since the beginning of russia's a -- russia's aggression, and implemented five rounds of sanctions against russia and we are discussing possible next sanctions, which among others include possibility of some kind of oil embargo in one form or another. we how this assessment of what implications it will help -- have for the european economy. if there is a sudden cutting off of russia's hydrocarbons, not only oil but also gas and as a conclusion is not resolve problems, europeans can cope with this scenario with regard to oil, global oil markets, so there's a possibility to find another supplier. we are now working intensively to diversify supplies, including from lng, including from the united states but also to

accelerate the green transition out of renewable energies, so working at full speed to reduce dependency on russian hydrocarbons. lisa: you talked about potential oil embargo in one form or another, there has been questions about how severe these embargoes can be, given the reluctance of germany mainly to really go forward with this because of their dependence on russia yes for gas but also for oil. how quickly could something be implemented and how straight could this embargo be? >> in terms of speed, we are ready to move up fast with regard to technical work, so it is mainly reaching political agreement, because sanctions are agreed in the eu and as a principal of all member states. all 20 member states need to agree. that is why consultations are now ongoing intensively but

technically we are ready to move as our first sanction packages have shown, we are ready to put in place in one or two days. tom: to got to the chase, with your 24/7 work and work of everyone in europe, are you essentially waiting for the outcome of this french election, are people like you essentially on hold until monday. >> it must be said absolutely not, and as you noted before, france has voiced its support for oil embargoes, so it is not something which it is holding us back and i was not something which was holding us back for example to present sanctions. a package also in the same election context. there is quite a degree of unity and eu to stop.

jon: given what happened at the first decade of millennium, another warning in crimea, the germans is business as usual, business as usual with the german government. have we learned that lesson? >> clearly i think there is broad knowledge meant as there were mistakes made also not reacting in determined way against russia's aggression against georgia, annexation of crimea and other events. from that point of view, this lesson is finally learned and as you know, at least in european countries, have been ringing alarm bells for many years, so finally it is heard and there was a firm and determined action

and it is important we stay the course and stay consistent and make for a stopped in russia's aggression fails. jon: you have been a good contributor over the years. warning after warning for the german government, and there are people who still today believe perhaps the german government is still not learning that lesson. and still resisting the effort to go that step further still. >> i will make a strong opinion we are all revisiting western sieve from 30 years ago. the 800 mile border of russia to ukraine and further south of ukraine. i think you can talk about where we will be in discussing turkey in the coming months and years as well. jon: it begs the question whether we fully realize the client -- the consequences from

an economic perspective and for some people, the answer is no. lisa: going forward as well as looking back in terms of what the deliberation was, to your point about whether germany has learned the lessons in terms of how quickly to move away from oil and gas, they are kind of handcuffed. we have to recognize they are struggling with how not to torpedo their economy and how do you deal with an aggressor at a time where you are so reliant on them going forward and i do keep going back to that $150 call that we heard from goldman sachs and how much that must be petrifying for places seeing inflation. jon: on this program, we catch up with the james family institute on this economy domestically in the united states. four basis points in the treasury market, 200-8747, from new york city heard on radio and seen on tv, this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first work, i am ritika gupta. vladimir putin calls it a move that would give the u.s. and its

allies something to think about. russia says it testfired a new intercontinental ballistic missile and prudent said the weapons would defend the country against outside threats. russia followed normal notification speeches before the launch. finance ministers and central bankers condemned russia's unjustifiable war in ukraine. they will work to isolate russia from the global economy, and the g7 told international organizations they should not conduct activities with russia and the usual way. hong kong is beginning a slow path back to normality, the worst covid out rake, as gyms and sports facilities opens after being close since january. people can meet and larger group send more resources will be ease in the next few months of new cases keep on dwindling. shares of united airlines forecasted a profit. next quarter operating margin to be tencent as consumers resume air travel that would end a

string of what has been nine straight quarterly losses. a surprising turn of events in college basketball, the coach has resigned after leaving the team to two national championships. the wildcats displayed in the final four where they lost to the eventual national champion and there has been no word that this is health-related or he is going to the nba. the new coach will be a former assistant coach at fordham. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> moving purposefully toward a more neutral stance that does not stimulate the economy, that has clearly demonstrated it can

self sustain as a top priority. this is where the question of timing comes in, i see an expeditious march to neutral by the end of the year as impact. jon: mary daly, the san francisco fed president, good morning, equity features positive on the s&p 500 and a nice nap back on the nasdaq 100, supported by tesla, railing heart at the premarket. nasdaq 100 up by 1.2%, the s&p up .8 percent. into the bond market, yields higher by three basis points, call it four on the u.s. tenure. the u.s. two-year, 260 to 74, the higher the session is the high of the year at the moment. to saunders 6133. tom: it will be interesting to see. right now, a firestorm the last time she was on and this is on inflation and on psychology of america. we can put everybody to sleep. people have said i put people to sleep before.

you can read campbell, schapiro, 2009, risk preferences in the ps id individual imputations and family covariation, come on, you are killing me, out of the university of michigan inflation combine with matt schapiro, claudia psalm joins us this morning with jane institute. i will cut to the chase. you are legit pro out of the michigan combine on the effect inflation across the different deciles of america. mary daly and others look from 60,000 feet, the working class, the middle class, the subclass, the rich, all of those partitions, how are they affected by this historic inflation. >> you are correct inflation does not affect us in the same way. prices are not the big blob of

the aggregate number, it is everybody like what we put in our shopping baskets, it differs in a lot of ways and what you have to pay for, say there are people who working class, even into the middle class, they spend a lot more on necessities and gas and food. for a while, housing, that has been not affordable, and rich people are doing ok. it can benefit people that have a lot of credit card debt, good for bondholders, so there is a lot going on, but the big thing is high prices and high inflation are disruptive. it can make life challenging. michigan owns the high ground on this. you study there. allan melts is rolling over in his grave at carnegie mellon

because allan meltzer once to go aggregate. mary daly is going aggregate, can we beat 7% inflation going aggregate or do we need a fed that has to understand the impact? >> i firmly believe in the fed on this one. if anyone knows how to get this under control, it is jay powell and his team. i will say what is very disconcerting and you talked about the war in ukraine earlier in the show, food and gas prices are totally out of control of the fed. to tighten the belt and not feed the kids as much. there's a lot they can do for the rest of the stuff we buy. they are making progress. the last consumer price index report month over month was kind

of encouraging. a long way to go. lisa: let's say the idea here is perhaps you don't believe the fed has to go quite as quickly as some of the more aggressive hawks out there. i do wonder how much you have to reassess when you see things like housing prices continue to climb or housing continues to climb beyond expectations, despite the tightening we are seeing in financial conditions. >> to be clear, my baseline is 50 basis points in may and june. i think it is pretty clear they are signaling two moves, not just one. i think that is appropriate. the mortgage rates, they have gone up. mortgage rates are up to percentage points. it is clear there is some of this i will buy now before prices go higher, so it will take a little while for us to see the cooling and jay powell cannot print houses.

we have a big problem and we have had a big problem for decades of affordable housing and under billed. maybe this is a wake-up call to build houses. lisa: what do you think would be a restrictive policy rate? >> i would not -- at the fed, i don't think they will do this, if they really start running out of the gate, i know jim bullard was putting out a hypothetical but i think 275 basis point moves would overdo it. particularly we would keep getting by the june meeting a lot more information about the economy. it -- if they go to hard and the world serves us a particular set of conditions, we could have an undershooting see her. it is absolutely clear they need to go harder. but not too much jon: jon:.

that is a big call that is, if they went to hard we could have an undershooting of inflation target next year. what would too hard be to get inflation back below 2%? >> recession. jon: over session you think would achieve that? the reason i ask is some people think you could get a contraction growth while prices are elevated above 2%. >> good left with that. anything can happen at this point, nuclear winter is inflationary so i'm not -- things could be bad but right now, we lose sight of this. we have an economy that is back on track, we are on trend for inflation-adjusted consumer spending, inflation-adjusted business investment and we never got that after the great recession. the labor market is there. tom: we are running out of time on the clock. jonathan ferro has to close out the hour but we are among friends. what did larry summers get wrong on this? you said the stagflation

hypothesis is nuts. what did he get wrong? >> i have not heard larry talk about covid for a very long time, and i do not think there is a serious discussion about the ukraine -- i don't know how you missed that. whatever. it is useful to have somebody going around saying the world is stagflation, inflation, recession. it is worth talking about but his story does not stand up. it is nothing 1970's. tom: thursday morning wrestling. jon: i can see a panel developing. you get the former treasury secretary you think -- you think we can get the former treasury secretary? jon: let's let them do their thing and i can involve for six hours. tk, two views is all it is about. tom: it is tom: tom: just classic economic debate and with great respect to professor summers, this is what makes ago.

jon: i bet if you spike it it makes a big difference. up 10%. yields up for basis points on a tenure, 200 87.28. on new york from tv and radio, this is bloomberg.

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>> i am really worried about what we will see in terms of the economy and the second half of the year as rates go up. >> i think we have to look and see where real yields are heading. >> when you see yields new what they have done so far this year, this has been the worst year in history statistically. >> the longer part of the curve looks appropriate. i think we could expect a fred to move up the short end. >> the fed is clearly in uncharted territory. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tankan, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: i'm jonathan ferro, equities bouncing back by more than 1%. the earnings of far, pretty decent after the close. tom: you are dead on about what do i focus on the way from the news we have. you and i chatted up david