>> i am really worried about what we will see in terms of the economy and the second half of the year as rates go up. >> i think we have to look and see where real yields are heading. >> when you see yields new what they have done so far this year, this has been the worst year in history statistically. >> the longer part of the curve looks appropriate. i think we could expect a fred to move up the short end. >> the fed is clearly in uncharted territory. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tankan, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: i'm jonathan ferro, equities bouncing back by more than 1%. the earnings of far, pretty decent after the close. tom: you are dead on about what do i focus on the way from the news we have. you and i chatted up david

konstantin after his 10:00 effort with bloomberg and this guesstimate of earnings growth is underreported right now. it is a mystery. jon: you made the point on global nominal growth this year and next year and perhaps that is still things for earnings. tom: i sound like a fossil and might lead fossil was the giant folk array of pioneer group. i think he died at 104 and it was mr. caray, dressed me -- trust me. he would action me on the bright lights of inflation. it is a different glow and those younger are getting used to this new glow. jon: the numbers from last week from delta, tremendous, after united airlines comedies and. american airlines this morning. lisa: american airlines shares up 7.6% after reporting earnings , basically they see second quarter total revenue of 6% 8%, which is higher than the second

quarter of 2019 so we are now exceeding where we were prepend on it because of everybody wanting to go out there and be traveling and how much is this representative of the broader economy and how much is this a specific story to the reopening of frankly the world? jon: scott kirby of united airlines, we catch up with him on the demand backdrop. he says it's the strongest it has been in 30 years in the industry. it is hard to reconcile their ability to pass this onto the consumer, the demand for travel, which is surging. not business, it is all about leisure over the last 12 months and incrementally business as well. with what we have seen in the survey data, that is something wells fargo was trying to get their hands around two. lisa: there is some economic argumentation around which survey data reflects a more properly but at what point do we see retracement in spending and how much -- tom, you have been talking about this, how it is a different story depending on the income level of who you are and how that reflects the economy

will be. tom: do you think if you say leisure is like an american one-day vacation and you say leisure it is like sabbatical. lisa: leisure means look at your half-hour -- look at your work every half-hour. jon: we can do holiday as well as you like. holiday sounds better. tom: holiday sounds way better. jon: let means the whole of august. you have always been visser about that, the european holidays. tom: it's another world. i miss it. futures up 0.1 percent. yields higher by four basis points on the 10 year to 2.8747%.

a conversation about higher rate that the ecb. lisa: this is fascinating, the idea that you have the ecb vice president coming out and saying we could end qe in july and raise rates subsequently after. we were talking about people traveling, talking about leisure because so many people are actually employed. 8:30 a.m. we get u.s. initial jobless claims. the expectation is for another decline in the number of people filing for jobless benefits. we have seen the participation reply to at the lower peaks and prepend mike, or -- pre-pandemic, or are we going to see more people coming to the labor market as people to go on their leisure trips? at 9:45 a.m. we hear from president biden, giving an update on what is going on with russia and ukraine. very curious to hear how russia's claim that they have taken over mariupol changes the

conversation. a strategic piece of land, how much are they willing to go harder with sanctions? how much are they willing to provide more aggressive weaponry to the ukrainians? fed chair jay powell and ecb president christine lagarde speak at the imf seminar as german to your yields climb to the highest level going back to 2014. who do you think is going to be more interesting to listen to, fed chair jay powell or christine lagarde of the ecb? jonathan: based on news conferences, chairman powell. how this goes, i don't know. it is going to be interesting to see if president lagarde pushes back against her vice president forget that is going to be interesting. tom: to lisa's comment on labor per dissipation, underplayed yesterday was the jp morgan oil energy outlook, which was a primal scream on building oil demand. that is may be the most optimistic thing i have seen all week. jonathan: and where the consumer stands with oil prices. wells fargo say this, from chris

harvey leading the equity coverage. despite what consumers are saying about inflation, they are still spending bank earning calls, indicating the consumer remains very active. let's get the view from citi with david bailin. just how supportive is this consumer of this equity market? how strong is the american consumer right now? david: the american consumer is actually weakening relative to what they were just a few months ago. when we take a look at march data we can see that unit volumes are down in terms of what they are buying, what the good news of it is they are willing to buy certain things irregardless of price. overall they are weakening. real wages are going down and they are having to make choices between the things that they actually buy. as lisa talked about, we are going to see more labor

participation, and that is a good thing. overall, gdp and the united states will be potentially significant lower by the end of the day. tom: your note makes very clear you find high yields, low bond prices. in the words of john templeton, bonds seem to be on sale today. are you long bonds? david: just yesterday we decided to change our asset allocation. u.s. treasury long bond has done the worst it has ever done over the last six months. in the last two years it has lost 1/3 of its value. we went long in our core portfolios for the first time in the last 15 or 20 years. we believe that peak rates are going to be hit this year, weather three months or six months from now. i think bonds are back. you are going to want them in your portfolio. you are going to get paid something in real terms. here are going to have the possibility for appreciation. think that is going to be a major part of the story the next

three to six months. lisa: this actually pushes back against some people who say the fed is losing some control over inflation expectations and is not going aggressively enough, and that will lead yields to be higher over a longer period of time. what is the pastor get there? -- the path to get there? do you see a recession to get that drive into duration, or do you see a sanguine pass where people realize they are getting more yield that they have in years? david: the fed has put us in a pretty difficult position because they have become very hawkish about inflation, and the type of inflation they are trying to control is exogenous, meaning it is from the pandemic, from the war in ukraine, and that is not something the fed can control the inflation of. in order to try to do that, they could crush the economy. the way they could get to recession is not only by raising rates, but to do enough quantitative tightening to cause things to blowout. that is possible. tom: yesterday we witnessed

netflix. i know you don't talk about individual stocks with all of the regulations and that, but how do you avoid a netflix? is it a profit analysis? is it a concept analysis? how do you try to sidestep a netflix? david: this has a lot to do with expectations and how the analysts build their models. i will say that the biggest surprises on the downside have been stocks where the expectations of the investors has simply been grossly unrealistic. think about netflix in terms of what it is. it is a consumer discretionary item. it does not have an ever up stock price. in the environment that we just described, the consumer is going to have to choose between filling their gas tank, taking a ride in an airplane, or watching netflix, especially given the fact that they are now leaving their homes, so the necessity of it is changing. my overall point here is we have

to look at real cash flows. the way the company is properly valued given the environment it is going into with slower growth in the future, whether it is in china or the united states or europe, all of this suggests we have to find companies with sustainable and increasing cash flows in the new slower growth environment. jonathan: that is exactly what michael nathanson said yesterday about netflix. david, great to catch up as always. david bailin of citi global wealth. lisa: the why is going to be interesting. to the netflix point, to the equities point, if you think duration has value here, does that push you back into stocks, or does that go in the opposite direction because it tends possibly some sort of recession or slow down? tom: to both of you, because i am in triple leveraged all-cash, how lonely is bank of america in the david balin call right now?

jonathan: i think they are pretty lonely at the moment. we still got to work out what qt means for this bond market. i think that is really difficult still because when asked that question of people in the bond market, there is still a big divide. people start to nibble away. i imagine the team at pgim are probably on that side of the trade as well, looking at what bank of america is saying to do and listening to david bailin too. lisa: i do wonder what this means going forward and how they are going long duration. jonathan: we will catch up with priya misra of td later. she's got doubts about how far this fed can go. need to talk about these airline names. american airlines joining united with a nice pop higher, more than 8%. american up by almost 9%. demand for domestic travel has steadily improved, they say. demand for international travel has picked up significantly.

this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia's president vladimir putin has declared that his forces have seized the key ukrainian port city of mariupol. it would be the biggest city taken during russia's two-month invasion. russia's defense minister says more than 2000 ukrainian troops are still hold up in an industrial complex in mariupol, demanding those troops surrender. the u.s. justice department will appeal a ruling that throughout the mask requirement for public transportation. many airlines have now dropped their own mask rules, but some transit operators have left the requirement in place. at&t had a favorable start at it parts with its media business under terms to its telecom business. at&t spun off and merged its

warner media division with discovery. shares of tesla rising today. the electric vehicle met their reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter that easily beat estimates with a record profit. the ceo elon musk predicted that bill port will grow faster than expected this bite problems. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

> we have to consider which sanctions hit putin and which sanctions in the short term hurt us more than him. jonathan: the german finance minister christian lindner speaking to annmarie hordern. it is thursday morning. good morning to you a. up 0.8% on the s&p, up a little more than 1% on the nasdaq 100. tesla earnings good. united and american even better. those two names in the premarket , absolutely surging. a pop by more than 8% on united, up by more than 10% on american airlines. talk about the return of the domestic leisure travel story over the last 12, 18 months. now it is all about international, about business

travel making a comeback. some of these names across the board over the last week delivering some decent numbers and a decent guide. tom: it is a healing with the huge government support they got. the answer is we kept the transportation network going, but as lisa mentioned, to me it is hugely behavioral. people are willing to plan vacations, get stuck in atlanta, and up sleeping in a hotel -- jonathan: that was a low blow. [laughter] lisa: still struggling here. really? this has not been an easy return to traveling for some people theoretically, and yet even those theoretical people are planning additional vacations. tom: i was going out to six that he -- to cincinnati and had a six hour delay, and i have to admit, the airline handled it really well. jonathan: really? because bramo is not happy with her airline of choice. [laughter]

we should talk about the price of that experience. looking at some of the prices for summer travel, it's up there. tom: we've got united on television and radio coming up for across america with mr. kirby, and this is the raging debate in airline economics, which is called price elasticity, which is where abramowicz sits at home and goes, you got to be kidding me. jonathan: i just wonder if they keep holding back capacity. tom: they learned that lesson. they learned that lesson after losing money. jonathan: have they learned the lesson on buybacks? i will ask that question a little bit later. lisa: i look forward to that one. jonathan: scott kirby, about 9:40 eastern time on bloomberg tv. tom: let's get to it right now. we've got a lot of news going on. annmarie hordern in washington, maria tadeo in brussels. i am absolutely confused right now.

this battle down in the black sea, the distance from mariupol to odessa is tangible. maybe odessa is next. but is mariupol captured or not? conflicting reports this morning. emily: very much --maria: very much, and it really depends who you ask. right now russian television is showing pictures of russian troops talking to people of mariupol. you could argue a lot of this is staged, but nonetheless, those are the pictures that get shown in russia, and which they say you have nothing to worry about, the russian federation is here and you have been liberated. that is the spin russia will put on this, to show that they have taken mariupol. when you speak to ukrainian officials, they tell you for as long as that steel plant holds, there's ukrainian soldiers on the ground, this will be ukraine , and we have not surrendered and we have not given up the city. what really matters, and this will really tell who's the winner here, is is russia able

to create that bridge from the donbass tomorrow pole, and therefore to crimea -- from donbass to mariupol and therefore to crimea? jonathan: we hear from the president a little later this morning. what are you expecting? annmarie: what we are expecting for sure is more military aid and support from the presidential drawdown, which means it does not have to get through congressional approval. it can go right from u.s. stocks over to ukraine. this just adds to the millions of dollars, now billions that have been sent from the united states to ukraine. in terms of what to expect, officials briefed us earlier this week, reporting that it is pretty much the same ammunition, may helicopters, that have been in-line from previous drawdowns of u.s. stocks over to kyiv. lisa: i wanted to follow-up on some thing you said with the mariupol point and how it is

going to be a messaging tactic to try to get vladimir putin to be able to say he has some sort of victory. i was looking at this independent poll taken of the russian public a couple of days ago that actually showed support for vladimir putin inside russia has been climbing to near record highs. how do you square that with this belief that people are going to turn against him within russia and that they are feeling the impact of what is going on with respect to the economic cut off of russian business? annmarie: if you ask me, and maybe this is --maria: if you ask me, i may be this is not politically correct, but that is the theory with inc. about it in the west. that this is vladimir putin's war, that the russian people do not support it. however, when you look at this from the russian perspective, you look at the russian news, the way this conflict is being presented, for many russians, the country is acting like a liberator. ukraine is a nazi country, and

in russia, when you call someone a nazi, it is the worst of insults. we really have to stress this. they think it is a war that is fair and completely valid. tom: i've got to ask a domestic question because we are international this morning with everything going on this morning. is joe biden a lame-duck president? annmarie: oof, tom. let's see what the midterms deliver for this democratic party. also, let's see if he's going to come of the bedtimes will decide -- the midterms will decide. if you have a red congress, there's going to be a lot that is difficult to get through. potentially the international sphere will be they only place you will see legislation in terms of more support for ukraine. but after that, yes, two years it will just be constant infighting within parties on who

will take up the mantle for 2024. jonathan: precisely. i wonder if that is the deeper question you are asking here. are you asking about the term of the midterms or whether or not who is running in 2024? tom: i think it is all wrapped up together, and i think the nation with this inflation is tangible. the weight on them is getting way out front of the politicians and the zeitgeist and the people that make the story like annmarie hordern. i think the nation is way ahead of the politicians right now on saying fix this and let's move on. jonathan: amh ndc alongside maria tadeo. i have been asking this year whether the calendar is on the president's side when it comes to inflation. on year-over-year inflation, i think it will could be. they be a little bit of leakage into spring, into q2. but from beyond, things could get better. cannick better enough -- can it get better enough? can inflation come down to 4%,

5%? that is a big ask. tom: that helps them and november. jonathan: yield up four basis points, 2.8747%. on the nasdaq, up 1.2%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: for the airlines so far, so good over the last week or so. united after the close yesterday, american this morning. the numbers pretty decent, supportive of this equity market . on the s&p, up 0.9%. on the nasdaq, tesla makes up about 4.7% of that index, so a nice pop higher on that particular stock and on the index as well. the nasdaq 100 up by 1.27%. r -- romaine will run you through the individual numbers in just a moment. andrew hallman horst -- andrew hollenhorst talking about his call for back-to-back interest rate hikes. can the ecb make a move and get

rates back into positive territory? that is the conversation as well . german bund yields higher on the two-year, and bleeding into some euro strength as well. euro-dollar just short of a one dollar -- of a 109 handle. tom: it is job voting waiting for economic data and these next meetings. jonathan: the elephant in the room is still the war in ukraine and the policy response from the european officials, and what that means for this european economy. lisa: there was a fed research report that said inflation was transitory, but then it changed because of the crisis and how there was no inflationary input. what happens if you don't get an end to that inflationary input, even as the economy recovers? tom: the amount of pushback -- jonathan: the amount of pushback you get, people just don't quite

believe it can happen. euro-dollar just short of 109. let's get some single names in movers and say good morning to romaine. romaine: it is all about tesla today, record day for the quarter on an earnings basis. you talk about guidance that the company gives. they have been looking at a 50% growth rate. elon musk intimating that could be. all of the challenges to continue getting those cars out the door, even with a shutdown in shanghai and all of those issues going on, they continue to meet and exceed a lot of wall street targets. this stock is on the verge of erasing all of its losses for the year. it was down as 27%, 28% on a year-to-date basis to start the year. when you go through the nasdaq 100, you look at the highest weighted members and that index, only one of the top 10 highest weighted names and that index has actually returned a positive price return to investors so far

this year. that was cosco as of yesterday. as of today, it could be tesla should these gains hold into the close. netflix continues to move in the opposite direction after that 35% plunge yesterday. now we are learning that one of its biggest and newest shareholders has thrown in the towel. bill ackman's pershing square, which just disclosed in january, now disclosed that it has sold those shares. saying they have learned from past mistakes to: those bets early. how about at&t? this company just got out of the streaming business. they just reported earnings. subscriber growth now in their pure play wireless business coming in well above estimates. jonathan: what did you learn -- tom: what do you learn yesterday? romaine: i think the cover station with netflix was too slow to move to an ad based model in their tier pricing,

something that hulu has done well. reed hastings referenced hulu, not by name, but it was very clear, and they admired to the fact that they have been able to find a balance between that subscription-based and ad based subscriber tier. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate it this morning. this is a joy. we tried to plan the person -- we tried to find the person at goldman sachs whose and see aa bracket -- whose ncaa bracket blew up the most. amanda lynam, senior credit strategist at goldman sachs. i want you to just say, how do you buy active bonds versus buying passive bonds? amanda: thanks for having me. good morning. one of our key themes for 2022, and lisa alluded to it earlier on the program, was the return

of dispersion and a dispersion rising to normalized levels after being at rock-bottom levels for the past few years. we are seeing that in 2022 so far, both at the sector level, across high-yield and at the idiosyncratic level. even within sectors against all of the focus on inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, we are also seeing the importance of credit selection even within sectors like retail and food and beverage, among many others. so we think that the environment is very ripe for credit selection and stockpicking in the bond market, so that is a trend we expect to continue. lisa: i do think going forward, there is also an issue of what the credit market is saying about risk appetite in general. tom asks me this every morning. he says to me, honestly, what is

the credit market doing? it seems to be confirming the resilience in stocks. does this mean that even in credit, which is considered ahead of the equity market, do you think that they are pushing off the idea of a recession further than perhaps some of the biggest gloomers and doomers? amanda: i would agree with that. if you look at absolute levels of the high-yield markets today, they are not at all close to recession like levels. that said, our forecasts do expect some rehabilitate risk premia through year end and even into the first half of 2023. for context, we expect the ig market to move from something around 125 to just over 150, the high-yield market will move from just under 350 basis points to something around 500. those are just point forecast by year end 2022. i think while the market is not

indicating at all recession like levels at the moment, we do expect some widening through year end. another point that is really important for credit investors is the importance of the supply and demand technicals we have seen in the market. for the full year of 2022, we think that net issuance will be either flat or slightly negative. so that has been somewhat of a strong anchor for technicals and spreads more generally because we just have not had the large uptick in supply this year tom: i have been greatly remiss on the bear market in bonds. we talk about price down, and in investment grade paper, the bloomberg aggregate index is down 11 percent, almost 12% in price. here is the punchline. that has never happened. lisa: right.

however, if you talk to people in the bond world and the credit space, they are going to say that is all rates. that is alteration. that is not the credit bet. tom: but amanda lyman can say that at goldman sachs. our viewers and listeners are getting hammered. lisa: given that, what kind of outflows will follow on? amanda: your point is well taken, tom. ig total returns are off to their worst start on record by far. so completely off the charts. i think the one key difference in the ig market relative to the high-yield market, for example, is that the ig market does have a large contingent of spread based buyers. institutional spread based buyers, but nonetheless, a big part of that market is tracking the index, unlike the high-yield market. to your point on fund flows, our work has actually shown that in

various bear market rate regimes , ig fund flows actually do not chase rates. again, indicative of that spread based buyer cohort. what we have seen is if you look at ig fund flows as a percentage of total aum, those outflows have not been that severe year to date despite a big selloff in rates, and then in high-yield have actually had a terrible string of outflows. we've had double digits of consecutive weeks of outflows so far this year. have lost in the high single digits of aum. but high-yield spreads are still quite range bound and resilient, so i think that just reinforces one of the views we have had for a few years that fund flows in and of themselves do not drive performance. they respond to the same risk factors that overall spreads do, but one or two or several weeks of outflows in and of themselves does not actually drive

significant underperformance. jonathan: you're one of the very best. it is great to catch up with you this morning. amanda lynam of goldman sachs on credit. i can't up with -- of jp morgan yesterday and asked him about 2018, and said with qt would have the same result. he really takes a very different view on what took place in 2018. he said a lot of that session risk around the fed hiking story was born out of the trade war between the u.s. and china, and he believes that was the catalyst for the weakness and the growth scare, and the fed was just everything on top. he thinks this time could be different. lisa: that is fascinating. i do wonder about the idea of quantitative tightening actually causing longer-term yields to go lower, that it would slow the economy enough that you would see some sort of flight into duration, and how this would really help credit. high-yield bonds are now yielding on average almost 6.6%

if you take a look at the bloomberg barclays index. remember when they were yielding under 4%? if you look at the incredible increase, and a lot of this is because of the rates story, people are saying i can always get that 7.5%, 8% that a lot of pension funds look for. jonathan: that is precisely the point that bob was making yesterday. another issue we need to stay on top of is the move in the airlines in premarket. the guidance pretty good. 10.9% higher in the premarket, american airlines doing really well. united airlines doing well as well. just in terms of what they see for the second quarter, looking at domestic demand doing better, steadily improving, but the surprise for a lot of people, business demand coming back nicely this year. international travel picking up significant lee as well. tom: i think the tickets, may 11 heathrow. jonathan: you want to fly in for spurs-arsenal? tom: those are fell value -- those are fair value. jonathan: is that what you are

suggesting? tom: i am suggesting. jonathan: i might be on board with that, tk. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russian president vladimir putin called it a move that would give the u.s. and its allies something to think about. russia says it testfired a new intercontinental ballistic missile. putin says the weapons will defend the countries against -- the country against outside threats. russia followed normal notification procedures before the launch. a $325 million super yacht tied to a russian billionaire will not be leaving the south pacific island nation of fiji anytime soon. a court has ordered the detainment of the yacht. the u.s. has a warrant to seize the vessel as part of sanctions imposed following russia's invasion of ukraine. hong kong is beginning a slow path back to normality as the city's worst covert outbreak wanes.

ports reopened today after being closed, restaurants will reopen, and people can meet in larger groups. more restrictions will be eased in the coming months if new cases keep dwindling. a surprising turn of events in college basketball. the villanova coach has resigned after leading the team to two national championships. the wildcats just played in the final four, where they lost to eventual national champion kansas. there has been no word that the decision was health-related or that he is going to the nba. villanova's new coach will be the former assistant coach. i'm rick agrippa. this is blue -- i'm ritika gupta. . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the united states growth coming out of this crisis has been stronger and more resilient than any other major economy in

the world, and frankly, the u.s. economy right now is in a stronger position than any other advanced economy, even when you take into account inflation. at the same time, inflation is a serious problem and we need to orient our policy measures to address it. jonathan: brian deese, the national economic council director. equity futures shaping up as follows on the s&p 500. positive on the s&p by 0.8%. positive on the nasdaq by a little more than 1%. the earnings so far pretty decent from tesla, united airlines, from american airlines as well. yields higher by three or four basis points on the 10 year to 2.8689%. $103 a barrel on wti, up 0.8% on the day. tom: the vix under 20 is a huge surprise for the gloom crew, and the drawdown on the dow jones industrial average is now under 4%. is this a gloomy market? jonathan: your to date on the

nasdaq, still down about 14%. it has been difficult. tom: 14% is netflix, right? jonathan: if you are a single name, i agree with you. compared to what is happening beneath the surface, there is a real defensive sector bias that morgan stanley and a lot of other people have been on top of. it has been really difficult. tom: let us now talk about the difficulties of ukraine. it is not only the land war of which he is familiar, as the former marine and co-author of "2034" that elliott ackerman joins us, but also his knowledge of the seas as well. off of mischief lagoon in south china sea, how did you as a military pro respond that battered ukraine sunk this ship

of the russian navy? amanda: i think -- elliott: i think everyone should pay attention to what happened in the shaking of the muskva. what it shows is a profound shift in the power dynamics that exist not only in naval warfare, but in all of warfare, in which the under guns, underequipped ukrainians are basically using a swarm of drones to disorient the sensors and then hit it with two neptune missiles. it shows the power of those types of anti-ship platforms, and that is a trend we should be paying attention to as we consider how powerful the u.s. navy might be matched against a similar threat in the south china sea or anywhere else. tom: how will it change, to bring it back to your marine

service, the land battle in ukraine? how does a naval shock like that affect the prosecution of mr. putin's war? amanda: to go -- eliot: to go one level larger, we have what i would call a platform centric version of warfare, meaning we invest in these extremely expensive platforms, whether it is our aircraft carriers that cost billion's of dollars or our state-of-the-art fighter planes. our defense strategy is built around these platforms. what we are seeing ukraine is the efficacy of anti-platform systems, so not only what happened to the russian ship which was taken down with two missiles, but these javelin antitank missiles destroying state-of-the-art tanks, or our stinger shoulder fired missiles destroying russian aircraft. keep in mind, those are not new technologies. those are 1980's, 1990's

technologies. so the latest systems are even more advanced and should cause us to question a national defense strategy in which we are investing all of our resources into what aircraft that can be taken out with far cheaper missiles. lisa: if we had an hour i would love to talk about what you propose in terms of charting some sort of defense path in the united states. you have written poignantly about how different the war in ukraine is than a lot of what you experienced with your former marine colleagues. can you give us a sense of where we are in this conflict, of how much of an inroad russia has really made into you -- into ukraine? elliot: i will preface that by saying i think this is going to be a long war because you have two sides whose positions are intractable. the ukrainians are fighting for their families, for their homes, for their very right to exist, and they are highly motivated. they are a nation of nearly 40

million peopley are not going to back down. on the opposite side, you have a russian regime in the name of vladimir putin who also understands that in some ways, this conflict is existential. if putin loses in ukraine, whatever that loss looks like, that really would call into question his ability to cling to power in russia. to me, those trendlines indicate that this war will go on for some time. we have seen the battle lines move to the east. i would add that as a marine, as someone who spent my 20's and 30's fighting and pleases like a rock and afghanistan, where oftentimes the cause felt a little bit muddled end of the reasons we were there started to drift, and ukraine the cause is very clear. who is in the right and who is in the wrong is pretty obvious here, and i think for a lot of veterans of the wars i served in, that clarity has drawn them back, and they want to, and

their middle-age, go contribute to what is going on. jonathan: we need to do this more often. fantastic to catch up, sir. elliot ackerman on the situation in ukraine. our colleague javier blas put this one out. the u.s. exported a record amount of crude and refined oil products last week, surging above 10 million barrels a day for the second time ever. the u.s. is acting as the barrel of last resort to a global energy market hungry for oil. just wonder politically how that is going to go down if those kind of numbers continue. lisa: this has been a political quagmire for president biden, who has been called out by green activists, saying that he has done a complete about-face. and on the flipside, from others saying you have not done enough to support the fossil fuel industry at a time when that is helping national and international security. javier blas also pointed out that russian production of oil has gone down about 10% from where it had been pre-conflict. not as much as you would think,

but you can start to see the response to the fact that people are not buying. jonathan: can we export that much out of the united states going into the midterms if energy prices stay this high? is it something they are comfortable with? lisa: this has been the issue not only for oil, but also for gas. this is why you see natural gas futures in the u.s. climbed so much, because suddenly the problem in europe becomes a problem in the u.s., where we are the ones exporting a lot of our goods and it ends up being a global market more than original one bucket has been in the past. jonathan: we will catch up with him hopefully a little bit later this month. equity futures shaping up as follows on the s&p, looking pretty decent. on the s&p 500, a 0.9%. this morning, american airlines with a pop. the nasdaq 100 up by 1.25 percent. yields up four basis points, 2.8708%. later today you will hear from chairman powell and president lagarde on a panel as they stare down some important meetings in

the next month, particularly for chairman powell on may 4 area with this market getting b.i. -- getting behind the idea that the fed could hike 50 basis points, and then again, and in citi's mind, then again and again. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> the world economy is facing some real serious challenges. >> maybe the fed may be nearing a pause as far as aggressive rate increases. >> there's nothing wrong with being a picky stock buyer in this environment. >> it is particularly these moments right now where we feel like the market should do this. things should get better. inflation should dissipate. >> when you see extraordinary moves like this, i hate to say it, but they continue to go until some thing breaks. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning,