>> the world economy is facing some real serious challenges. >> maybe the fed may be nearing a pause as far as aggressive rate increases. >> there's nothing wrong with being a picky stock buyer in this environment. >> it is particularly these moments right now where we feel like the market should do this. things should get better. inflation should dissipate. >> when you see extraordinary moves like this, i hate to say it, but they continue to go until some thing breaks. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

thrilled you are with us this morning. what a conversation we had with claudia sahm, firing up twitter. we will continue that conversation in moments with optimism on getting through this crisis. we are buffeted by a cacophony of crises. jonathan: let's start with the drumbeat of the central bank speakers a little bit later. the drumbeat continues into that panel between chairman powell and president lagarde a little bit later. we know what the federal reserve is about to do in may, a 50 basis point move. we know the committee is back on board with getting back to neutral, something north of 2% on fed funds. the question is how much further will they go from there. we know what bullard would like, 3.5% by year end. can he get others on board through the next few meetings? tom: the vix under 20. futures up 41. the sense here is the optimists

or the calm down crew are having their moment given the gloom that we see in so many blogs and research notes. jonathan:jonathan: through the earnings. the big issue coming into this quarter, inflation. does it start to hurt demand? do consumers start to push back? we've heard from the big three airlines in the past week, and they are all saying business is tremendous. the consumer is looking pretty good. the consumer for the banks, the banks seeing the consumer looks pretty good. the problem you have is when you look at the surveys of the consumer right now, they are not telling us that they feel really good, so it is hard to get that balance right between what is actually happening and what we are told is happening. tom: to claudia sahm's fiery comments, it is about five or six americas. lisa: you would have to read the beige book which came out yesterday, and i found it fascinating. i'm not going to claim to have read all of it, but tom porcelli at rbc highlighted a couple of

key passages. he was pointing out that perhaps on the margins you are starting to see a softening. for example, there were comments that said there were signs of tiny cracks, including that some businesses may begin to start cutting jobs because they can't find the workers and are paying them too much, and inflation has eroded consumer spending power, dampening demand. so are the margins -- so on the margins you are seeing that in the commentary out of the fed. tom: in 27 minutes, we get claims. one of the themes of our april conversations is a fully employed america for your we have heard that with a force. jonathan: you will get some pushback on that, but certainly looking at the data points, 100 80,000 is the estimate on jobless claims this morning. doing the start of the rate hiking cycle from the federal reserve, there are some who believe that things can only get worse and not better, given that unemployment is already down here in the threes. tom: i'm going to highlight this once more, the vix under 20 is a

bull market statistic. you see it in the dow, 1000 points from peak, but s&p after the netflix debacle up 41 points. jonathan: tesla supportive of what is happening with the nasdaq 100. the s&p up by zero point 9%, the nasdaq 100 up by one point 3%. on the nasdaq, tesla about 4.7% of that index. tesla is doing nicely in the premarket. the other issue to look at, have a look at the bond market. treasury yields higher by three basis points, 2.8631 percent. the two-year yield is higher this morning by four or five basis points to 2.62%. just a little bit of a lift at the front end of the u.s. and in germany as well. tom: gold down $15. swiss franc is the ultimate safe haven. really bulls back down to a weaker swiss franc or get -- swiss franc this morning. on a tone of resilience, a

measured plan forward, brent schutte joins us right now, chief investment officer at northwestern mutual. i love your five paragraph note where you basically say what everybody -- say, would everybody calm down and look out beyond? how far out is beyond where i can remain calm? brent: i certainly think over the long term, people should remain calm because that is the path to prosperity generally, not to overreact and the shorter term. the good news in the near term is that i believe the economy is still strong. earnings are still growing. we will have a recession in the not-too-distant future, maybe two to three years. but between now and then i still think there are market gains to be had, and all of the pessimism is reflected in investor surveys. if i take you to the aaii bullish sentiment survey, it is a fantastic contrarian indicator.

over the past 10 weeks, you have had some of the most dire bullish productions of the future. in mid-february we had 19.2 bulls come out. only 17 times was that number lower, and all of those times gave way to future twelve-month returns that were positive in the s&p 500. it was 15.8 last week and it is 18.9 this week. those are all consistent with returns that are positive over the next 12 months in the s&p 500. jonathan: when you hear david bailin come on the show and say bonds back near 3%, you want them, what do you say back? brent: i still think there is upside in bonds. think about what the fed has done in with the goal of quantitative easing was. the goal of quantitative easing was to decrease the term premium, and it is still negative. people don't want any additional compensation for buying 10 years over rolling one years or short-term bonds.

i think that has room to move higher, especially against the backdrop of what people are questioning. how high is inflation going to be? i'm not suggesting people should not own bonds. it is certainly well to have bonds for the near term expenses you may have come about from the standpoint of bonds are back, i still think there is room to go on the upside in the near-term. lisa: you say it is not going to be a soft landing for the fed, so what is it going to look like if you are still optimistic when it comes to certain equities? brent: i think most people in the equity market are used to a cloud of dust. if using about the ones from before 2006, i think greenspan did six in a row. the fed will do what they can to get their credibility back. they know the neutral rate, we don't know exactly where it is that, i think the fed knows between 25 and whatever that is is quite a bit, so i think you will see 50 basis points for at

least the next two meetings, but then i think they will be inching more carefully because they don't know where it is at, and i still don't believe the fed wants to cause a recession. it is not societally palatable, it is not politically potable. i think they will lean on the too much inflation side, which means the inflation still has room to run. lisa: we have been talking about the sector specific stories, netflix versus the airlines, absolutely on a tear this morning. how much can you lean into stories like the airlines that are very much cyclical given the fact that you are seeing momentum there, while at the same time seeing a recession in the next few years? brent: we talked about this in the past, our like for value and small caps, people believe you should not be in. i think that ignores valuation which is incredibly important. right now valuation on some of these areas is incredibly depressed relative to technology, and they are expected to grow more this year. if using about that, at some

point you want to move to quality, but a lot of that is still in the evaluation. the for mines be a lot of the late 1990's, where value and small-cap did quite well into that, and then even after that they did quite well. i still think there is opportunity there because i don't think a recession is coming the next couple of years. jonathan: talk to me about netflix and how you reacted to that yesterday. what were you thinking when you saw that move? brent: there are some parts of the market that are bid up on dreams of earnings through the future. some arts of the mark and are bid up on investor optimism, stories about what they can be a not what they are right now. there are parts of the market bid up on people not returning to public and people staying at home forever. i think the air is being let out of all of those. i think the market right now is certainly down a bit, but if you look at some of these stocks we have talked about, some of the etf's that invest in those, those are the markets down 60%, 70%. i think you want to stay in things that have earnings in the here and now, things like the airlines, i returned to public

type of thing. there is still opportunity there as we continue to normalize the economy. jonathan: fascinating stuff. this market wonderful to follow and painful to invest in sometimes. it always fascinates me to see such a well researched name like netflix, so heavily researched, so well talked about, have a move of 35% on a given day. tom: he's getting me in trouble on a daily basis. it is like we are married. jonathan: just say what you think. tom: just say what i think, yeah. ok. i think a lot of very courageous people for two or three years said wait a minute. dan ives is coming on, and his colleague absolutely nailed this. there's no other way to put it. i want to talk about something out there for the optimists. the wonderful 100 page energy piece yesterday, and his note i

sang in energy marshall plan is what we are going to see. that is the same as david landau talking about the capital investment that will be required in europe given the change in this war. these are huge investment responses which typically have good financial outcomes. jonathan: deutsche bank in the meantime telling everyone to prepare for a hard landing. tom: i am talking the bigger, broader that you just heard from brent schutte right there, underpinned by let's do it, let's get going. that is what you hear from j.p. morgan on energy demand. jonathan: i mentioned six because in the premarket, we are down another 4%. still not settling down. we are positive on the s&p, up 0.9%. on tv come on radio, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta.

russia's president vladimir putin has declared that his forces have seized the ukrainian port city of mariupol. it would be the biggest city tatian during russia's two-month invasion. russia's defense minister says more than 2000 ukrainian troops are still hold up in an industrial complex get put in is demanding that those troops surrender. the u.s. justice department will appeal a federal judge ruling that throughout the mask requirement for public transportation. that sets up a legal fight that could last the on the midterm elections. many airlines have now dropped their own mask rules, but some transit operators have left the requirement in place. american airlines reported that corporate and international flying are coming back. that has shares surging. american projected second quarter profit as offices reopen and travel restrictions are lifted. airlines have cut capacity, and that has allowed them to boost fares for the summer vacation season. tesla shares rising today. vehicle maker reported better-than-expected results for the quarter.

tesla ceo elon musk predicted that outboard will grow -- that output will grow at a faster rate for the rest of the year despite supply chain issues. -- has boosted the cost of everything from the espresso coffee to -- from nespresso coffee to. a dog chow -- to purina dog chow. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is about earnings and cash flow, and we are getting to a different metric. i think for the rest of the industry, you will have a hard time selling me on a some of the parts story. the market has finally seen this and has rethought how they look at these companies, which to me is healthy. jonathan: michael nathanson, great to catch up with him yesterday, of moffitt nathanson. netflix again lower by 3.4%, does not quite as much as yesterday session. up 0.9% on the s&p. helped up by one name on the nasdaq, helped out by tesla in the premarket, doing nicely this morning, up by 7.5%. tom: what we are trying to do here at "surveillance" is talk

to the smartest people on wall street on this. people keep score. dan ives is a complete pain because he has been so right on big tech, often voted -- often quoted, but i want you to go to the debacle of the last 24 hours including tesla. muggle packed her nailed it -- michael baxter nailed it on netflix. jonathan: we were trying to figure out whether we have a netflix problem or a market problem. which is it? daniel: i think it is a netflix problem. the work from home beneficiaries will continue to trade down. that is catch a falling knife. microsoft, cyber, semis is going

to lead tech higher. net clicks is clearly a have not. it is not a market problem. it is a company specific. jonathan: facebook was down yesterday by 7.8%. that was brutal. you mentioned apple. let's talk about the relationship between apple and the tesla right now. i think the china story is so important. no more a overnight cut gdp for china to a three handle -- nomura overnight cut gdp for china to a 3% handle. daniel: that was the key from last night because for tesla, that is the hearts and lungs of the bull story in terms of shanghai and the three week shutdown. it is ramping quickly, coming out of the gate now that it is reopening. i think that is similar to what we see with apple next week. i think the street, they are viewing this as a contained issue. overall supply chain slightly improving.

daniel: how confident -- lisa: how confident are you that they can compete against the new upstart electric carmaker ford? daniel: i think fundamentally, when you look at what is happening in the ev landscape, it is tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent. they are further flexing their muscle from a manufacturing perspective, and even despite category five hurricane headwinds in china, i think it just shows, you talk about raising prices, they are raising prices and demand is increasing. that is an important dynamic right now. demand outstripping supply by about 30%. lisa: how do you determine what a reopening story is and what is fundamental at a time when so money people went into cars come about new ones because gas prices were climbing or because they did not want to take public

transportation or they weren't traveling on airplanes internationally? how much is that also a reopening story versus some sort of secular shift? daniel: we take basically what we believe was a pull forward dynamic. we saw that with some tech names like even microsoft, and what is the sustainable demand trend. what we are actually seeing is the sustainable demand trend for names like tesla and ev's, and in terms of the cloud and digital transmission, it is unparalleled to anything we have seen in the last 22 years. tom: netflix ran into some competition, whether it is paramount or some of those that are more sustainable. i will go to mazda and their idea of sustainable zoom zoom. everybody wants to compete with tesla. are you telling me they are going to maintain revenue integrity given all of that competition? daniel: i think it is going to be a rising tide that is going to lift a lot of boats. it is not a zero-sum game.

tom: they are going to sustain their unit dynamics? daniel: i think it is going to amplify because only 10% automotive is ev's, and they are going to have a bigger and bigger piece of that. when you compare it to netflix, they continue to raise prices. others eventually caught up. the difference with tesla from a battery technology and continuing to build out factories, that is the difference between someone like a mu -- a musk and hastings. jonathan: why did no one on the call ask about twitter? daniel: i think that was one where no one wanted to spoil the party. in terms of obviously tesla focused earnings, twitter is the clear elephant in the room, the collateralized stock and what he is going to do with tesla, as well as spacex. but i do believe there will be other times to ask that because

it is just starting. jonathan: we've got to get stuck in sometimes and spoil the party. that is just how these things work. and i've of wedbush, great to catch up. you see this from journalists sometimes as well. i have a lot of sympathy with the community because the reason you have so many holds and not as many sells is access to management. tom: mayor european telecoms bring a spinoff public. we are on the conference call. there's got to be 150 people on the call. it is all these nice questions you allude to. the lovely woman from "the wall street journal" asks a bulletproof western about paragraph three, page 242 in the perspectives. they literally hung up the phone in real time. jonathan: and she did not get invited back for a question ever again, i'm sure. tom: they are brutal. i'm not saying it is good, but it is brutal. jonathan: the numbers were good

from tesla yesterday, up by 2.5%. american airlines looks good. united airlines looks good. delta airlines last week looks decent. tom: what is tesla going to do when there's 40 teslas out there? jonathan: are you asking whether we wake-up one morning and we have a netflix type scenario, where they wake up to massive competition? tom: devaluation of a pe of 200 or 400 given the presumed competition that is coming down the pike two or three years from now. jonathan: look at the demand right now for the f-150, through the roof. tom: i saw a photo of it. that's all i know. jonathan: it looks pretty cool. has matt miller got one yet? tom: i don't know. it is a lot of money, right? lisa: i don't know how much it costs. jonathan: i thought you had the scoop on miller. lisa: well, he is still filling up his hummer. i just inc. it is going to be

able to complicated zone -- just think it is good to be really complicated zone. jonathan: so up to date. that's what i was waiting for, the bramo take on these things. from new york, this is bloomberg.

jonathan: justin in the control room says 30,495 the starting price for an f-150 truck. i imagine it goes much higher. futures up in the s&p. nice jobless claims print. let's get to mike mckee for more. michael: this week council little bit more than mothers -- than others because it is the week in which the payroll report was taken. a decrease of 2000 from the revised level of 186,000. it does show the labor market remains extremely tight. the other thing we are watching is the philadelphia fed. their business outlook at 17.6.

the prior number was 27.4. that is lower than we had anticipated. then the market had anticipated. waiting for the prices paid number. that will be the think wall street cares about because we are all on inflation watch. in terms of the employment situation, it remains good. jonathan: 184,000, fantastic number. a fresh eye of the year on the front end of the treasury curve. the two year at 2.63. the nasdaq up, the s&p up .8%. the earnings have been decent as well. tesla yesterday, american airlines earlier. tom: pretty decent captures it. i like your idea of the lumpiness of the market. how many know the s&p 500 with dividends up 9%, i did not know that. jonathan: i did not know that

either. tom: yet there are some of these disasters as we saw yesterday with netflix. it is not a public relations disaster but it is a reality when you're in private equity and you buy up american real estate. it is controversial. with a controversial conversation with the president of blackstone, jonathan gray, here is sonali basak. sonali: i want to run through what happened with blackstone in the quarter. you have shares jumping in real estate helping blackstone sore in their performance in the first quarter and you have them getting just a hair away, very close to the $1 trillion in assets. jonathan gray, thank you for joining us. i wanted to start with you on the real estate business because no business did better for you than opportunistic and core plus

real estate. when you're looking at this soaring real estate pricing market, how long does that dynamic last? jonathan g.: it is great to be here. i think in real estate it is a bit of a tale of two cities. a variety of real estate are facing pressure. if you think about older office buildings and cities and regional malls where the fundamentals are challenged, where rising rates will put pressure on these assets, it is not as good a story. our theme is rental housing, life science office building, making a bet on recovery and hotels. in those areas where you have shorter duration leases, income

can continue to grow to offset inflationary pressures. there are headwinds with rising rates, but owning hard assets in the right sectors in this environment can be a good thing. sonali: you are being a little meek in terms of how much you have invested. in housing, $13 billion. $6 billion last year for single-family rentals. and then this year another $6 billion on an apartment community business. if anyone knows what is happening in a tight housing market, it is you. how big of a problem are these rising prices the american homebuyer? jonathan g.: the challenge on the housing has been many years in the making. if you step back and look at the supply picture, we have been building houses at half the rate we did prior to the financial

crisis as a percentage of population. for a decade we built up probably a 5 million home shortages. that in balance, particularly after all of the stimulus that came out, covid peoples focus on where they live, that has led to a sharp increase in pricing. that will take a while to work through. mortgage rates going up, costs going up. it is about new supply coming online. we think capital moving into the space helps encourage new building, which is fundamental. at some point there are some limitations in terms of how much folks can charge for a new home or rental prices because of earnings. the long-term picture for housing in america from a value standpoint is pretty good because of this long-term shortfall that is built up. sonali: i want to shift gears.

a lot of the trouble we saw, the idea of deals slowing down, we are not seeing it right away in your performance. you are part of one of the largest deal announced in talk about this year. what does this mean about your propensity to deploy capital and how big can you see yourself going when it comes to buying assets? where are you looking for opportunities? jonathan g.: i would say it speaks to the breadth of our platform. we did announce this year four large transactions that share characteristics, but they speak to our global reach. we committed to by the largest casino company in australia, the biggest logistics business in europe. also you mentioned a large transportation infrastructure company, and then the student housing deal we have talked about as well. these are big businesses.

one of them involves our private equity business. a couple of them involve our real estate business, also our infrastructure business. that allows us to deploy capital. we can also do things that are bigger. where we have high conviction, really did. these are hard assets. they have good underlying fundamentals, not as much exposure to input costs, and as a result we feel good about investing in these areas. one of the things for individual investors to think about is in a volatile market like this, do i want to sit on the sidelines and just hold cash? with inflation that is risky. owning hard assets in things that have high convictions make sense, and what you're seeing is an expression of that high conviction. sonali: their assets you are willing to buy but then there are deals you pass up on. the financial times said it will

probably pass when it comes to elon musk and the bid to buy twitter. what does that mean in terms of what opportunities you might pass upon, whether in private equities or direct lending? jonathan g.: we do not comment on individual deals, but every transaction we look at the merits of a potential transaction based on the risk return for our investors. that has been our story for a long time. as investors it is like sitting in the batter's box. you do not swing at every pitch. you look at what are the risks, what does the environment look like? today the inflationary prism, the rising rate prism is very important as you deploy capital. i would not look into any individual transaction as a sign of what we are doing. sonali: i would love for you to comment on the geopolitical tensions. i know you do not have any investments in russia. you have worked closely with

china and there a lot of questions about the slow down you are seeing in terms of growth in the relationship between china and russia. what does this mean for you and the way you are thinking about investing in china? jonathan g.: in china i would start by saying this is the second largest economy in the world. we subscribe to what the commerce secretary said, which is engagement that helps mitigate tensions. that being said, you have to be mindful there are tensions on both sides comment be selective and where you deploy capital. in china we invested in the domestic economy, mostly in real estate, mostly in logistics. we have been pleased with that. they are facing headwinds. therefore we have to acknowledge what is happening in covid, what is happening in their housing market, there capital markets. all that means it is a more

difficult environment. long-term china will grow quite a bit. sonali: thank you for your time. that is jonathan gray, president and coo of blackstone, close to becoming a $1 trillion asset manager. jonathan: brilliant, thank you. going through some of those comments. 8.5% inflation come is that an environment you want to be sitting intact with at the moment? lisa: the answer is no -- that is the calculus many people are making, vertically and the private credits based. jonathan: coming up later this morning we will catch up with scott kirby, united airline ceo. this comment just came from american airlines. they see business revenue 90% recovered in the second quarter. what a change that is. tom: scott perp he is an operational group. he was in the trenches.

we will talk to him after you. looking forward to it. if meet emmanuel macron -- d of me -- give me emmanuel macron again. this is granular politics. emmanuel macron is in it again. i do not know where it is. the physical nature of the french campaigning is absolutely stunning. jonathan: can you give me an idea of the picture you are looking at? tom: the people are like six inches away from him. jonathan: are you suggesting the french leader might and more security? tom: you tell me. it is absolutely original. jonathan: later we'll hear from the president of the united states. we will take those comments live on tv and radio. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date

with news from around the world. russian president vladimir putin called the move that would give the u.s. and its allies something to think about. russia says it testfired a new intercontinental ballistic missile and says the weapons will defend the country against outside threats. russia follow normal notification procedures before the launch. hong kong is beginning a slow path back to normality as the city's worst covid outbreak wades. -- outbreak wanes. restaurants will stay open and people can meet in large groups. more restrictions will be eased over the next few months if cases keep dwindling. a super yacht allowing to a russian billionaire will not be leaving the south pacific island nation of fiji anytime soon. the u.s. has a warrant to seize the vessel as part of sanctions

imposed following russia's invasion of ukraine. another twist in that takeover battle involving billionaire carl icahn. he says he will not be a better and the company strategic review. southwest rejected an earlier bid and says it has interest from another potential buyer. the u.s. moratorium on student loan payments is scheduled to be lifted at the end of august. more than half of borrowers said they would not be able to make a single monthly payment today if they had to. payments have been paused on student loans since the beginning of the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> they have more money to spend and they are not borrowing.

all of that says there is a lot of dry powder on the consumer side. that is the good news. i can tell you on a given day there spending money and engaging in the economy. tom: brian moynihan in conversation with david westin. it has been off our radar. kriti gupta never has japanese yen off her radar. she has a vision back 30 years. kriti: one of the topics is are we going to see intervention when it comes to the japanese yen. we know the boj is active in the japanese bond market, where a lot of people are flocking to the dollar because of those interest rate differentials. the result is the yen weakness. the last time the boj intervened was back in 1998, when you had dollar-yen hit 148. then steepness in 20 -- in 2002

where it hit 145. the issue was do you intervene once again? there are two sides to the trait, the dollar side and the yen side. any move has to come with the cooperation of the united states. do you see it again in 2022? tom: greatly appreciate that. a lot of talk of the round number of 130, we are not there yet. to our conversation with the gentleman with a masters in business podcasts, too much going on. barry ritholtz. through the lisa abramowicz dartboard we came up with, netflix. they are -- there are 54 opinions on netflix. why do we need 54 opinions on any given stock? barry: if you want to do

syndicate business or secondaries or underwriting, you need somebody to sell that stuff. if you are an investor, those opinions are pretty meaningless, and i think as we all watched the downgrades earlier this week , netflix from their october highs was down 50% before this week. they fell another 27%. that is when the downgrades happened. down 70%? you think i should dow light up on netflix? thanks so much -- you think i should now lighten up on netflix? tom: i do not want to get into a criticism of sell side, but what fascinates me is we treat the buy/hold/sell security analysis of something like netflix the same way we treat a ball bearing company in ohio.

you cannot do that. barry: when you look at netflix you are talking about intangibles. if you want to learn about intangibles you have to learn -- you have to read works from people who been writing about this for years, who has correctly assessed for the most part we've been undervaluing technology. the market seems to have agreed with him over the past decade on a specific stock, especially something so work at home, live at home lockdown related like netflix. there are now lots of competition. people are going out into the world and living their lives. there should not have been a surprise to anybody if you have a functioning brain. it turned out to be a huge shock to so many people. lisa: this is a story that would possibly be a specific stock story two or three years ago, but now it is a $150 million

market cap company that accounts for a specific part of the nasdaq. with facebook or meta the same kind of story, but we also saw it fall out of bed. how much are these specific names in the tech world taking on new importance to understand on an index level? barry: all of these are specific stories. the question you are asking is how much of this is dominated by the company specifics and how much is part of a broader trend. i am in the camp that says the economy is doing great and getting better and people are coming out of their lockdowns, they are tentatively removing their masks. the u.s. consumer is still in very good financial state, so therefore we should see a lot more consumer spending coming out. that said, it is pretty clear the index story of the past decade has brought a lot of good

and bad up, now we are starting to see that sifting point separating the strong ongoing sustainable business models relative to their valuation from the companies that do not support the valuation. one last point since we started talking about the analyst community, there is a little but of survivorship bias and that the most talented and insightful actionable analyst, many of them have been scooped up by the buy side, and the wall street world of analysts is not what it used to be given hedge funds and private equity venture capital. a lot of the best talent has migrated west to boston or new york or d.c., where they are working in specific areas, and not publishing publicly. tom: or they are analysts who

when you look over there right shoulder you see baby yoda like you do with barry ritholtz. for radio, barry ritholtz has the character from into lori and -- from mandalorian on the bookshelf. lisa: i am wondering how interesting this will be. american airlines up nearly 12%. i half an hour to go before the opening bell. they are seeing more demand than 2019 before the pandemic. i wonder, how much does that mean they can? prices? how much can they get the staff back in the doors given there is so much demand for pilots and flight attendants. tom: it a raging debate. paul sweeney joining me in six

minutes. pall is way up front on this. he says everywhere he travels the planes are packed. lisa: 100%. remember when we used to have seats in between there were kept empty? that would be a game changer. i think there was an interesting article in the wall street journal. there is an expectation that fed chair jay powell will indicate. tom: we have such a research combine. we hear that baby grogu is baby yoda. a data check. the yen, 128.15 on yen. some optimism. futures up 41. dow futures up 241 points in the

vix nicely under 20. jane harman, one of my favorite people from the woodrow wilson center at the 12:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. the earning so far pretty decent. up more than 1% on the nasdaq.

"the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to chairman powell. >> is jay powell. >> to me the messaging is clear. >> normalize as quickly as possible. >> part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions. >> this process of the fed slowing down the economy is taking time. >> we are still far below any estimate of the neutral funds rate. >> a 50 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>