find where that restrictive point is. >> this restrictive environment does provides for the market. >> companies are in a good place. >> there is still quite a bit of momentum in the u.s. economy. >> this is announcer: --"bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the euro, the epicenter of tk's world, weaker for a fifth straight session. tom: this is the deepest market. this goes back to gilbert kim sets. you are too young to remember when your father put you in a bond factory in the basement, but there was a thing called litmus paper where you took the paper and put it in the bottle and it changes color then you go

watch woody woodpecker. today we are looking at the litmus paper and it is foreign-exchange, and it is a euro printing a 1.05 handle. jonathan: with zero confidence right now, tom. overnight russia restricting gas supplies to poland and bulgaria. who is next? tom: who is next is the right answer. i don't know what it does to poland and bulgaria. we are going to learn about that. it is a set of events -- and i have to go to the reset and calculation from the bloom house deutsche bank, where they simply say, look, this is where we are heading given this took off any of events and that is a recession. jonathan: what we do know it is -- is it is sending gas prices higher. lisa: it is sending gas prices higher, although they are down from some of their highs. there was a story this morning saying four payers have made payments to russia in rubles. but the real story here is that

vladimir putin is weaponizing gas supplies for the first time. jonathan: that is the european situation. we have to talk about the earnings too. the nasdaq yesterday had an ugly on the year the nasdaq 100 is down 20%. that one has been messy. tom: every company is a different story, but you are right. at the end of the day you have to conflict together. -- conflate them together. we saw yesterday with google is the idea of use of cash to the rescue. share backs, dividends, and the rest of it, what does that do about slippages? google just slipped on youtube, the answer is there are some events that all lead to a lesser nasdaq. jonathan: that stock is down 2.6%, alphabet lower. lisa, met a coming up later. lisa: it will be interesting especially with the advertising and the european advertising.

but also the fact that people are not joining the site. it sort of has a demographics problem. i will leave it at that. jonathan: do you think there is still an older cohort that is on meda? lisa: we are going to talk about facebook and how grandmothers are posting pictures. we appreciate it. jonathan: we can get some insight on that exclusively here later. lisa: i'm sure we can. [laughter] jonathan: futures on the nasdaq bouncing back. yields were lower for three straight sessions today. they are higher now by two basis points. crude higher as well. the euro weakness, very weekly, with a 1.05 handle. lisa: that has been the weakest going back to 2017, which is why one of the most important events of the day is european union gas coordination group numbers joining forces and trying to come up with some response to

the escalation they saw out of russia. head of the deal with the fact russia is demanding rubles at a time where they do not want to pay rubles because that edifies the currency of a country who has been isolated in the war they are waging? did see a take-up in natural gas in europe. it has come down from the highs overnight. it suggests people think there will be capitulation or it will not come to that, that russia will not cut off these supplies. however, the 20% gain in prices shows you what the potential consequences could be if they are wrong. we get u.s. march pending home sales. how much did they decline? how much did they come off some of the levels we have seen as we see prices climb? yesterday we got that home price index and we got it climbing to the most going back decades, even as we get mortgage rates at the highest level since 2010. at what point do sales have to slow to foretell cooling in prices? this week 170 seven s&p

companies are reporting earnings. it is the busiest week. meta-after the bell, really advertising after google reported earnings that really disappointed. youtube revenues, youtube advertising, as well as european advertising. how exposed are some of these? the other behemoths like microsoft still crushing it. jonathan: amazon and apple coming up. looking for that. tk, the bias at the moment is to pay attention to the week earning reports. the airlines have been great. thinking back to the past week, united, american, delta. the likes of gm, you will catch up with mary barra. tom: i have to ask her about tesla. he was the reality. folks on radio, i've got my cell phone with me looking at the bloomberg app. world-famous. when i got a margin call on the cash fund this is what i turn

to. i met some sports event and looking here to see how much you going to put in, do you think elon musk is looking at his bloomberg terminal cell phone thingy, trying to figure out where the margin call will be? jonathan: i'm not going to try and figure out what elon musk is doing. he is a smarter man than me. twitter is trading at $48. this could be a gap opening up. the wrong way. tom: there is different numbers there. i have seen numbers as high as $700 a share on tesla as a margin call. i have seen numbers at the $500 level as well. i don't know where that number is today, but boy did he get partly there rapidly. jonathan: it is about $5.30 in the equity market, lisa. lisa: whether this deal will actually get done, much less what the consequences could be. jonathan: sebastien galy joins us now, nordea asset management.

i remember back in 2016 when we saw a 1.03 handle. your thoughts on what is going on here? sebastien: it is an interesting conflagration. you have the dollar strength which creates momentum, the appeal of the dollar as a safe haven, the cluelessness of the market who does not know how to trade rate differentials as small as between the u.s. and eurozone. in the big shock is really this conflict in ukraine, which probably will last quite a few months, and we might get wilder and wilder moves. we are starting to see that from the russians. they do not have the logistics, they do not have the production. ukrainians are playing a long-term game that the russians cannot fight, and that is negative for the euro and eurozone in the medium term. you are starting to see that priced in now through a weaker

euro-dollar. tom: where does euro break? i can't get a straight answer from anybody. as it 1.05? on the week euro, weighty things unraveled? sebastien: charts are lines in the sand to reassure yourself they are not completely meaningless. 105 is what -- 1.05 is what you're looking for. if you are someone who trades invests you are looking for parity, the reality is it doesn't matter very much. the euro is extremely weak. the ecb has to react, and one of the reasons is because we have a conflict between nato as a proxy war with russia, negative interest rates are a way to reduce the value of your currency. i sat in the meetings with ecb regarding this, and that means they have to move out of -20 very quickly. that should happen in july. lisa: i was looking at the dxy

index. it is the strongest going back to march 2020, but reaching the highest level it has an in years. at what point do something break? sebastien: it is a good question. the question you should ask is, where can i find safety in the world? is it in the back end of the u.s. treasury curve or in the dollar? the answer is a combination of both, but the dollar is a safer one that creates momentum, but also helps manage inflation. that means oil prices in dollar terms are somewhat lower. other commodities are easier and it is not as bad for the fed in terms of its hiking cycle. said that, he probably needs to be aggressive to control the narrative. if you compare that to the europeans, which have a weak currency policy, there is essentially too much inflation and they need to do something. jonathan: great to catch up. sebastien galy of nordea asset management. we don't have any confidence

about the future. tom, i would suggest we need to get through the next couple of rate hikes from this federal reserve. then work out what the future is. bank of america is saying the fed is likely to shift to more stability over the coming months, and more certain fed should help lower rates and provide confidence to the market. tom: given the year -- given the territory we are on, this is original. it is wildly nonlinear. the first 25, the first 50, there i say 75 will be noise, then after that i go out -- i'm going to get it up here. sorry, i'm looking at a margin call on tesla. i'm going to go to the calendar, even september 21. jonathan: as we deliver 100 basis points across two

meetings, a deceleration in inflation, because we are seeing a mechanical peak in cpi in america. the back end of summer things start to get or interesting. lisa: the hope is inflation will roll over enough to give the fed more comfort so they don't have to torpedo the economy. my concern listening to their earnings reports is the fact this is a supply shortage. this is a goods shortage. even though you are seeing prices go up, people need those goods and that is going to be a problem for inflation. jonathan: chairman powell, i would argue, as an easy job. president lagarde has a much tougher job. euro-dollar 1.06. lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keep you up-to-date with the first word, i'm lisa matteo. it is a major escalation in the

standoff between russia and europe over energy supplies. moscow will cut off the flow of natural gas to poland and bulgaria. it is making good on a threat to halt gas flows countries who refuse to pay for the fuel in rubles. european gas prices rose more than 20%. china's president, xi jinping, is calling for an effort to boost infrastructure construction. it is beijing's attempt to rescue economic growth, the strategy may prove less effective because of markdowns used to get the coronavirus under control. the world's richest person cannot afford to take too many days like tuesday. elon musk's tesla plunged by more than $32 billion. investors gave their verdict by sending shares of tesla down 12%. musk has pledged some of his tesla state to secure the twitter deal. the senate has voted to confirm lael brainard as the vice chairman of the federal reserve. most republicans opposed

brainard because of her views on regulation. meanwhile, a combination of covid-related absences and staff threatens other nominees. norway is tops when it comes to normalizing life alongside coronavirus, while hong kong and mainland china are among the worst. that is according to the bloomberg covid resilience ranking for april. norway is followed by ireland and the uae for places where the pandemic is being handled as. the u.s. fell to 23. the u.k. is down to number 12. both due to the number of fatalities. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we do want to make it harder for russia to threaten its neighbors and leave them less able to do that. they are, in fact, in terms of military capability, weaker then when it started. we would like to make sure they do not have the same type of capability to bully their neighbors that we saw at the outset of this conflict. jonathan: that was lloyd austin, the u.s. secretary of defense. good morning. futures are positive. deeply negative at the close yesterday. on the nasdaq this morning we bounced back big time, up by more than 1% on the s&p 500. yields higher too. that classic story over the last 24 hours. two's up to 2.57.

euro-dollar, 1.0 seven, just about holding onto 1.06. tom, the latest out of europe, everyone up to speed now. russia restricting gas supplies to poland and bulgaria. tom: you have a problem when we have a headline from the gas people in finland that they are seeing normal gas flow. i guess that is how fragile it is when you have to put out a headline saying things are normal. it is not normal in washington. annmarie hordern joins us now. it is not january. it is not the depths of february cold. is the white house response to no gas to poland and bulgaria different because the tulips are out then it would be in the winter? annmarie: it does make it easier, right? because he did not have the same needs for natural gas right now than you do in the freezing cold. we should look back at history. this happened twice before, in

two to six -- 2006 and 2009 when there was some feud between russia and ukraine on gas supplies. it happened is countries like slovakia had to end up turning off the tap for factories, telling people to use less, and you saw demand destruction. poland has the weather on their side and the fact they have been building up stockpiles. at the moment poland is absolutely ok. the issue is now that you see president vladimir putin making good on his threat, who is next? that is the worry for europe. tom: if i may change gears -- and this was the foreign affairs people with us yesterday and their magnificent new -- new issue, there is an opposing view, it is a gentleman from kentucky, mr. paul, saying the u.s. got us into this mess. how lonely is senator paul, or is there a constituency that agrees with him? tom: i know exactly --

annmarie: i know exactly the, you are talking about. he says u.s. is backing ukraine on joining nato or keeping the open-door policy created an environment for this. the issue comes down to the fact that this was also in ukraine's constitution. in the united states was not very much so saying we are going to let ukraine in, but said we are going to maintain nato's open-door policy. it is not for the united states alone to decide that. interesting comments from the senator, and he is not that lonely, and it is certainly not the majority. you had centered around at that same hearing saying to secretary blinken that after the chaotic withdrawal from afghanistan that credit should be given to this administration for all the work they have done. but it is an interesting nuance, because when you listen to the russian rhetoric, especially sergei lavrov this week said they are already in a proxy war with nato. lisa: how much is the ukraine

war still dominating the conversation in washington? annmarie: it is still a big part. but the fact that they are trying to get another spending package through, right? the president's drawdown orders, money he has left that congress gave him is really starting to dry up. they are going to need more money, so that is why this is a big issue on capitol hill. it is also an issue where you see a ton of bipartisan support. so it is very simple for senators to want to get together and lawmakers and try to push another package through, because this is something they can tout because they can actually get it over the finish line. you are looking at other issues it is going to be problematic. lisa: the reason why appointed to the economy is because there are an increasing number of reports saying democrats are dead in the water when it comes to the midterms, simply because you are going to get inflation at incredibly high levels as well as an economy that is starting to roll over.

what is the response to that from the democratic party? annmarie: we did have reporting this week that senator manchin met with senator schumer, potentially to discuss getting something done before the midterms election, going back to the conversation we have had months ago about using that reconciliation package. potentially this could be tax hikes or potentially a smaller deal on energy and climate provisions and proposals. the issue you have is, this comes back to the issue that has been the entire month, she's even if senator manchin can get on board with this, we have heard from kyrsten sinema in the past saying she is not on board with tax hikes. could potentially be something. senator manchin says it is important because they believe this is a way to fight inflation. jonathan: annmarie, good to catch up. tom, someone needs to explain this to me. russia has cut off gas supplies to poland and bulgaria over ruble payments. we are reporting that 10

european buyers have open ruble accounts -- open ruble accounts, and five have made payments already to russia. i'm not clear on what is going on with the russian gas situation in any way shape or form. lisa: earliest -- ursula von der leyen said it is blackmail by russia. is the blackmail working? that is the a. schu -- that is the issue i'm saying. is russia basically saying, we are going to wield our sword? we are going to show you what we can do if you don't do this? look at oak area as example. -- look at bulgaria as an example. how many have already gotten ahead of this? that have gotten quiet are going to be publicly shamed? jonathan: this makes that ecb decision that much harder. this falls in need -- nicely with what is happening with the

euro-dollar. seeing a 1.05. briefly. what could they do with interest rates this summer? tom: for those not attuned to this, they have some form of monetary policy that has coalesced around christine lagarde. part of fiscal policy is support for beleaguered nations with gas and such. it is absolutely, totally different than what we see with the fed. jonathan: five straight days of your weakness. lisa: this is not good. member when a weaker currency was a good? especially with the inflationary environment. how does the ecb get ahead of this? we are not just talking about the lack of rate hikes, but the impending weakness in the region. tom: if you want to triangulate this, you have one currency pair, another currency pair, and you find a third, and that is called a triangulate. it doesn't triangulate with euro

swissie. jonathan: coming up, andrew slimmon is going to weigh on this with morgan stanley investment management. it was clear, tom. lisa: trigonometry. jonathan: up on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: futures bouncing back this morning, good morning. s&p 500 futures up 1%. nasdaq up .9%. on the month coming into today, down hard. the nasdaq down 12 percentage points, heading to the biggest monthly drop heading back to 2008. that is the equity picture. later we hear from facebook. tomorrow, amazon, apple. elsewhere, looking at the bond market, just a classic risk off store yesterday. yields lower, equities down. today's, equities up, yields higher. five days ago we were 20 basis points north of this level on a two-year, pushing 2.80.

going into the fed, that is something to keep an eye on. the fed meeting this time next week on may 4. i want to finish on euro-dollar. adam ross king at -- adam ruskin at deutsche bank writing yields in germany are not bouncing in the same way treasury yields are. euro-dollar briefly with a 1.05 handle. alan ruskin saying this. a bird in the hand -- rate hikes -- think the fed have gone up in value. a bird in the bush -- rate hikes further down the road -- has gone down in value. think of the latter as being the ecb. we know what the fed is going to do. we have no idea whether the ecb can deliver. that, for him, is weighing on the euro even more than russia and ukraine. tom: i will go at that. i love the shakespearean stuff there much on. i was never good at that. jonathan: i was terrible too,

and i never read the books. [laughter] tom: seriously here, i'm going to also state it is the lead in this of the european experiment. our idea of 3% growth is their idea of 1.5%, and that dampens the whole fixed-income oscillation. jonathan: i would also suggest what is happening in the euro, we are also starting to play -- to take place with sterling as well. even if the ecb does make a move they are doing it into weakness. we have rate hikes and sterling weakness and the potentially of it happening in europe maybe. can you imagine me reading shakespeare, tom? that did not work out. lisa: i can. tom: joining us now, gentlemen that nailed shakespeare in school, senior -- senior portfolio manager at morgan stanley. i love andrew. you say, do your research, do your homework and look out for

maximum growth scare. what is the maximum growth scare look like? andrew: i think a market will end up near 5000 at year end, but i suspect at some point the anxiety around the fed will lead to the, you know, a greater scare on recession, and we could see 3800, down 20% from the peaks, and i think that is doable the first half of this year. my argument has been, this year is a battleground between the fed pivoting and the positive, that continuation of good corporate fundamentals. it will lead to a subpar year, but that is off 47.7 8 -- 477 eight, which is where we began the year. the returns for the rest of the year could be very, very

attractive. i think the lows will be on the maximum growth scare that the world as send it. that reminds me of 2011 where we had a peak to trough decline of 20%. fundamentals did not evaporate and the market came roaring back to all-time highs in four months. i think that is the scenario we are looking at, but right now we are in the negative side of that. i think it will turn more positive the second half of the year. tom: how do you distinguish sectors? right now we are in the heart of tech and they are making big profits. i understand there are nuances, but how do you take what is 23% of spx on their way to being 30%, how do you handle them versus the other sectors? andrew: this is an of shifting my tune here, which is, we bought a number of defensive stocks. being a long equity manager,

i've got this day in tech. we bought a number of areas in the year, we are under way tech, but what we see going on as quality growth stocks -- which many of these tech stocks are. they have been so hammered that i think that -- it is too late to buy defensive. you have to arrange a list of companies that you think evaluations have come down enough that you are willing to step in if we see further weakness in the market, which i think we will let some point in the next couple of months and these technology stocks, as well as some of these home-related retailers, i think they have been hammered so much that those will be the opportunities coming off the rebound the second half of the year, not the defensive's. jonathan: what about the banks? allow me to go through the

performance. five days, down 6% on jp morgan. citigroup, down year-to-date 16.8%. bank of america down 18 percentage points. what is going on? andrew: i would expand, jonathan, not only that, but i think the regional banks, which are benefiting from a better nim -- i mean, these companies are reporting good numbers and the stocks are getting hit. i think it is a story of too much risk. the one thing i don't like about the money centers is their exposure to other parts of the world that are harder to handicap. so, my view is to, again, look to positions in the regionals that are benefiting from fed raising rates, but again i would

argue it is a little early. i think you might be a little early. they have gone down a lot, but i would not bottom fish quite yet. i would wait for the s&p to be down at that 3800. it seems to be coming sooner than i expected. lisa: so another 9% decline to get to that 3800? do you think banks are going to lead a check on him is that going to be the disproportionate decline? andrew: i think banks, i think tech will lead coming out, but it is not going to lead down to 3800. there is going to be more. lisa: one thing you said that i loved as, i am not a strategist. have to put money to work and i wear my mistakes. what has been your biggest mistake, your biggest misperception heading into this year that you have had to reform for the remainder of 2022? andrew: i think the biggest mistake is that i didn't think

-- just as jonathan said -- i thought to marry defensive's, that has worked, to stick with financials because i thought they were going to report good numbers. which they have, and that has not helped the stocks. the stocks have dropped more than i expected because, you know, again, i thought they would be supported by better earnings and that has not been the case. tom: do corporations adapt to all of this, andrew? one way they adapt is to cut costs. is that what we do not see out there? is that they are going to come in with a new round of cost rationalizations to right size this? andrew: i think the answer is, i guess, one of the reason why we are more optimistic than some is that i am out there talking to companies, listening to companies, and i do not see the degree of concern that i do at

the strategy level, and i am watching every week the consensus estimate for this year continues to go up. and i just want to make sure that is an understood fact, because i do not hear that much. consensus going up. i'm getting to your question. what we are hearing is, a number of industrial companies yesterday beat in the first quarter, and they did not raise guidance. not because they saw big weakness coming, but they were cautious because, what is the point of raising guidance at this juncture? so, it is possible if we get to this without a big disaster you see consensus going up. talk your point, it is not unusual in the second or third year coming out of a recession to have margins continue to expand, and i think that is what is going on. i get more comforted when i'm down in the micro talking to companies then when we focus on the macro, the big picture.

so, i say it is -- has really not been different one we have -- then what we have seen before, which is fundamentals continue to be good. jonathan: andrew slimmon. great to catch up, buddy. as we wrap up earnings through the week, facebook after the close. tomorrow, amazon and apple. tom: i think tomorrow is way more important. maybe i am wrong, but i look at facebook as a separate from the others. i am sure that is a point of debate. there is just a lot of volatility, and we have had two once-in-a-lifetime events in the last three years. the pandemic and now this horrific war. witness bulgaria and poland this morning. i think andrew is very measured about the titanic uncertainty. how do you do a forward view on a soda pop company? jonathan: and how do you compare to 2011? i think that is tough. tom: i never played that.

and where the central banks are, you know, take it as a tailor rule or some of the other work. cooper lighting it up as well. your encyclopedic knowledge of shakespeare takes me back to "the tempest" and stefano. this is 1623 this is first published. i'm sorry, stefano -- jonathan: do you have a chair? tom: stefano was long tesla at the time, so he needed to pay all of his debts. jonathan: is that it? is that the value add? tom: huge value add. jonathan: thank you, tom. i grew up in shakespeare country. shakespeare country is thick -- is the county of the shire. a great shire. tom: have you been to stratford and all that? jonathan: of course.

used to have a restaurant that way. the nasdaq up 1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: always learning something new. i'm lisa matteo. natural gas prices in europe jumped more than 20% after russia made good on a threat to turn energy into a weapon against ukraine's allies. moscow has halted gas flows to poland and bulgaria and will keep its supplies turned off until the countries agree to the russian demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. the european union the move like no. in china there are signs authorities are starting to bring two outbreaks under control. shanghai has hinted that lockdown measures may be eased as infections dropped to a three-week low. in beijing the number of cases has stabilized. a new report says brexit-related trade barriers have led to a 6% increase in british prices. inflation for foods the u.k.

tends to import from the eu was more pronounced than for things like tuna comes from other nations. that is according to the london school for economics. spacex has launched four astronauts to the international space station. it is the first massacre equally made up of men and women. it includes the first black woman making a long spaceflight. softbank and its subsidiary are moving to retake control of the chipmaker's china operations. they will out its rogue ceo and they fired wu in 2020 for alleged conflict of interest, but he had refused to leave. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it would be a huge mistake to think this is the end of collective security.

but putin has done serious violence to the international ward order, as well as to ukraine -- world order, as well as to ukraine. those bonds that bring nato together, those ties that bring the u.n. together, they are still there. jonathan: that was karen pierce, the u.k. ambassador to the united states. futures bouncing back on the s&p and nasdaq too. the nasdaq higher by .8%. just off the highs as well on the s&p 500. ugly close yesterday on the nasdaq, down hard. europe has a problem. that is not breaking news. euro-dollar briefing at 1.05. the latest from the kremlin. here are the headlines. gas cutoffs to poland and bulgaria are not black male. they go on to say we will cut off gas to other buyers who do not pay in rubles, and in the kremlin's view russia remains a reliable energy supplier. those headlines out just moments ago. tom: really interesting to see.

movable feast will continue to look at this through the morning. the euro printing a 1.05 handle briefly. it is a perfect time after the secretary of defense's comments in europe to speak to tina fordham, strategist at fordham global foresight. but with a few decades of really legit experience, including public service to the united kingdom. tina, i want to get right to it. the first sentence of your note, you say there is a military shift toward ukraine. how do you observe that? tina: first of all, i think the conflict is tipping toward ukraine. there will be some setbacks for both sides, but, for example, ukraine now has more tanks than russia does in the field. this is remarkable. of course, it is a commendation -- a combination of things commandeered, plus supplies they

have got. the information war, the momentum. you just mentioned the meeting yesterday at ramstein air force base. 20 countries have now come together in unity around one really important idea, and that is ukraine cannot lose this conflict. lisa: if that is really the case, can we view the cutting off of gas supplies to bulgaria, to poland as basically an escalation, because vladimir putin is getting more desperate? tina: he is going to raise our costs for pushing back on his military objective. remember, he got away with georgia in 2008, and crimea in 2014. he was not expecting this resistance, so he is going to raise the costs for us. the problem for putin is that the combination of those 40 countries coming together with a much more accelerated response

to the need to provide arms to ukraine, plus this move this morning to cut off supplies to bulgaria and romania, two eu and nato member states, it is going to accelerate, in my view, european union resolve to switch away from russian gas supplies. germany has been a laggard. they are starting to see the light, or rather respond to the pressure of their fellow member states. lisa: you advise companies on how to handle sanctions, the prolonged nature of the conflict. you telling them with respect to how this is going to proceed, how they should hedge to get the most advantage ahead of what a lot of people are seeing as prolonged weakness in the euro region because of that shift you are talking about that will elevate gas prices? tina: yes, well, it is a pretty mixed bag, right? one of the things that affects classical clinical outcomes is elections.

we would have said the combination of inflation, cost of living increases should have heard macron. so, even in politics the traditional correlations in the data are breaking down. on the sanctions level we need to be thinking about a pretty long trajectory, because so many of the most powerful sanctions the west can levy against russia are being held back, particularly in the event of an unconventional weapons attack. it is the next thing on my watchlist. i think everything is on the table for putin. all taboos have been broken. if russia does cut off gas supplies to poland and bulgaria it is not a reliable energy supplier, and its days of being the supplier to europe are coming to a close. tom: tina, in the last 10 days has there been a shift? i mean this in a general way.

has there been a shift in the west's timidity to take on mr. boudin because of fear of greater issues like the proverbial world war iii? has there been a shift? tina: absolutely. we are coming up to two months since the invasion. that initial reluctance to get involved -- remember, biden said u.s. soldiers will not be fighting against -- i think he would still say that, but what i think has changed -- and we heard this from secretary austen -- it is going to be about grading russia's capacity to inflict this damage against its neighbors. it is a massive shift. jonathan: tina fordham of fordham global foresight. thank you for being with us. we were just chatting with dan tennenbaum. this is what he had to say. russia will begin to cut off energy access to the u.s.. tom, that is the reality of the situation at the moment. tom: he is the pro.

this is about different players, types of sanctions, and as you have talked about a lot, actually applying them. there seems to be a massive reticence among selected countries, not about the talking of it, but the doing of it. maybe that is this morning what shifts. jonathan: russia has to make a shift as well one it comes to gas supply. refer to themselves as a reliable energy supplier. i think many people have doubts. but europe at this point, is it a reliable energy buyer for the russians? i would say based on the current circumstances, they are probably not. lisa: tina fordham just said what we are all thinking, which is they are not a reliable supplier of gas if this is what is going to happen. your point is well taken. it is more understandable why russia might take this step or be more willing to if germany is talking about moving away from buying their gas.

that basically is them saying, look, if you don't want us, we don't want you. jonathan: there is a mismatch here, isn't there? if you want to inflict pain on the russian government you have to implement these upfront and take some pain yourself, otherwise what happens? we are just moving around the deck chairs, are we? they reroute their energy supplies to somewhere else, at the same time the europeans look for energy elsewhere. lisa: vladimir putin seems to have less to lose. doesn't matter if no one is going to buy their oil and gas in a couple of years? as he succumbs to that possible reality, how much more will he be willing to do in terms of weaponizing these supplies? that is underscoring some of the fear right now. jonathan: tk, have you got a final word on this? tom: get out the calendar. it is april. this is an october, december conversation. this is a preview of the autumn months. jonathan: well said, tom. tom: i still that from maria tadeo.

jonathan: she has taken the day off for her birthday, right? tom: she emailed me. jonathan: happy birthday, maria. futures bouncing back just 1% on the s&p and nasdaq 100. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> growth joseph -- doesn't drive inflation. >> i think that is what we are seeing, is been officials trying to find what that restrictive point is. >> it is a very pessimistic environment doesn't provide support for the market. >> companies are in a really good place. >> there is still momentum in u.s. economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience group -- audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is your bounce back from an ugly session yesterday. the nasdaq up 1%. tom: it is really moving, and it is a some of the parts thing. it is massively correlated to the volatility you see in the yield, to what we see in the foreign exchange market. brent