greater scare of recession. >> it could get worse if the fed moves as fast as it is telegraphing. >> a very pessimistic sentiment environment does provide support for the market here. >> the question you should ask yourself, where can i find safety in the world? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up on the s&p, with fact of the park. we can talk about that later. what a move in that. tom: it's an extra neri moment. stay with us for the morning as we give the best coverage we can on this international debacle. i will be linking in matt levine

of bloomberg's phenomenal effort on bill hwang with the japanese ministry of finance. wang was and is trying to corner a market. he tried to corner 10 selected stocks and move them up and up in a leveraged way and we talked about this before the show, japan's government is trying to corner the jgb market by eyeing in more paper, keeping control of the yield. what is the difference? jon: the doj probably -- doj probably. the action of the boj is in conflict with the japanese finance ministry. on the same day minister, official from the ministry of finance and japan, is externally concerned on the move and fx. the bank of japan is offering to buy unlimited amount of government bonds at 0.25%. to protect the ceiling. those two things are in total conflict this morning. tom: and what is so important is the relative crisis. it is not 2002.

our team and japan have a fabulous read this morning on this, the effect on japan and corona, the ministry of finance, a long time ago, dealt with a 135 yen. he is used to that except it is not 2002, it is a whole different set of cards this morning. jon: you can't have it both ways. lisa: that seems to be with the market is saying and we will go with the fact you will not support the value of your currency. it is also escalating on itself as a lot of investors do not view the yen anymore as a haven bat. this is a game changer. it used to be the haven trade and now it seems to be only the dollar, the reason you see strength. jon: it is sterling too and the euro. euro-dollar at a 104 handle. lisa: just shocking and really causing a conflict over gas and oil embargoes potentially on russia. divergence, shocker, some people will not want to withdraw their

google payments from russia in order -- ruble payments from russia to get gas and oil and that is leading to a lot of concern. jon: i think we should leave the jonathan ferro banner up over lisa abramowicz's face. tom: it's good. jon: i think we should cut their. once upon a time, two vases merged. tom: we are blaming everything on david today. jon: up 1.6% on the s&p 500 and the nasdaq up more than two full percentage points. facebook knocking it out of the park. the stock was so badly beaten up coming into earnings and that is helping the nasdaq it a little lift. yields coming a basis point 281 point 67. we have talked about the move on crude, 120 222. lisa: i cannot get a read on crude because they're so much uncertainty and we are helped up by the release of the strategic petroleum reserve. when i'm watching is a slew of economic data coming out in about 2.5 hours, 8:30 a.m. getting first quarter gdp

including core pce, leading to the highest levels going back to the early 1980's as well as initial jobless claims. it is expected to come in light. the analysts expect a 1% gdp on the first quarter and rbc expecting a contraction. a lot of people say it is a head fake because of trade discrepancies. we will be watching that to get a sense of how much weakness or strength there is. today president biden is speaking at 10:45 a.m., talking about what the u.s. plans to do to help ukraine. we also have the u.s. secretary general meeting with the president of ukraine and is coming as we saw facebook and germany -- in germany -- facebook and germany saying they will provide heavy assistance. it seems the gloves are coming off. he talked last night about meta, facebook blowing certain aspects of the earnings report out of the water. however, a low bar for them to

sort of step over. i'm interested in seeing amazon, aws, as well as apple. what does apple say about the shutdown in china and how much will that impact and possibly interrupt some of the supplies? jon: looking forward to those earnings after the close. the team will lead you through the and twitter, before the opening bell little later this morning. no earnings call given the impending transaction between twitter and of course elon musk. there is a massive move in the fx market. the dollar index, 103, pretty close to 104 today. joining us is the part of had an microstrategy at strategic, christopher verrone. what is going on in this fx market? chris: it is funny, about a year ago i wrote something that said we are about to enter the golden era of macro investing again and i did not know how precious that would be. what we see in the macro right now we have not seen in 30 to 40 years. what is playing out in entering now is so reminiscent of what

happened as you know in september 1992 with the bank of england and the pound. the big fantasy that they can keep a lid on 10 year jgb, the 25 basis points, the currency market is laughing at that. with german yields near 1% and u.s. yields need 3%, the likelihood this cap on jgb at 25 holds is a fantasy of this point. the outlet for this is the currency market. this is the currency market coming for the bank of japan. tom: is there a george soros out there? i don't want to put you in hot water but can you identify 2022's george soros? chris: i cannot. i'm sure there's a number of macro guys out there who are following this trying to have been on this early and are pressing this, but i think the bigger picture is what relationship has been severed over the last six months?

for the last number of years, every time yen weakened, japanese stocks went out. that has not happened here. the market says this weakness in japanese yen is not bullish for the equities as it has been in the past. that's a very import and sanction. tom: i'm looking at tangential is like 1992 with john major and sterling, and i'm looking for sting dollar back to 1996 and this is a secondary market and that number means nothing. 10 yen, seeing dollar, but we are strong sing dollar back to 1996. those are the knock on effects. what technically do you look at to show you where yen is going? chris: first in terms of knock on effects, i think there is one place we need to look above all others, what is happening in offshore chinese one is also pretty remarkable. you take from let's call it 640

to 660 in the last week or so. i do not think given the weakness we have seen in euro, the weakness in sterling, the weakness we have seen in yen that the chinese can sit back with the strongest currency in the world. move there, little reminiscent of summer 2015 and 2016 when you saw a pretty major devaluation. in terms of yen targets, 130 was our target. we are there. i think i need to reassess and say longer-term, is this headed to 150 or 160? i think the biggest take away for investors -- figure takeaway for investors, there are few people in this business that manage money with yen north of 130. this is a different macro regime. lisa: you say you might have to reassess, what would make you do that? what capitulation would you have to see in markets from a technical trend? chris: i think in the short term, you have capitulations. if you look at any saver -- any survey work, people are

expressing irish views on sentiment unlike the first percentile of all observations historically. so some paws on this 130, 135 would not be a surprise. the longer-term chart you point to 150, ultimately that is where this is going. jon: this is a problem for japan. why is it a problem for anyone else? chris: number one, the idea weaker yen as we talked about will be bullish for japanese stocks indefinitely is put to the test year. i am reminded of when pound broke in 1992 and ended with england recession. i do not want to forget that in terms of the japanese example going forward. i think most importantly, as we talked about the chinese juan, i don't think they can sit back and maintain it where it has been chaining -- trading. i think you will see persistent weakness and this is a new macro

regime. the risk premium has to go up everywhere when you see these types of moves. jon: great to catch up. christopher verrone of strategic --strategic's. explosive them anyways. tom: this is why it is hard to give a target. he mentioned 130 to 150 with 99% listening and watching is unimaginable. i will take the point of 1992 and others and not just sterling. i would look at emerging markets. the knock on effects here are not just about dxy. this is important. i can do this on the bloomberg. tx why go, 50% zero, 14% yen, 12% british pound. that is the dxy but there is a whole another world out there, like i mentioned seeing-dollar,

which has knock on effects on this and you get into a complexity or almost coordination where you do not know what will break. jon: the ministry of finance of bank of japan this morning, being compatible. lisa: as website, a weaker yen is not helping the economy. the importance of this goes so far behind the japanese economy because also we are talking about one of the biggest buyers of u.s. treasury and a possible inability to play in the global markets with a lot of these investors in the past. jon: we need to talk about matter, up 17% in the equity market, equity futures up two percentage points, a message -- message report coming up with apple. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jon: keeping you up-to-date -- >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, bloomberg and -- bloomberg

learned on chairing intelligence with ukraine, intended to help ukraine defend and potentially retake territory in the east and south where russia has renewed an offensive. top republicans in the house and senate intelligence committee have urged the restrictions to be lifted. the bank of japan has sparked a sharp slide in the end by doubling down on bond purchases. the central bank said it would buy an unlimited amount of bonds at fixed rates every business day. that prompted the yen to hit a two decade low against the dollar. cities across china are rolling out swift measures from mass testing drives to lockdowns for just a mere handful of coronavirus cases. they are trying to keep flareups per day and enjoy -- and avoid the hardships by shanghai. responses reflect the local governments face and wrestling with the highly infectious omicron strain. in new york, the billionaire behind the collapse of arco capital, bill hwang, has been released on $100 million bond.

he ended his former cfo have been charged with fraud. federal prosecutors outlined that they call a vast criminal scheme to mislead banks and manipulate markets, and both have pleaded not guilty. shares of facebook parent meta platforms are soaring. facebook's main socl network added more users than projected in the first quarter and that potentially could stave off concerns the company is losing momentum as a new generation flux to younger sites like tiktok. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> u.s. yields pushed higher in the dollar-yen could push higher , but if we move into the end of the year, people begin to think the u.s. economy can slow as yields are lower. in a way, that could take the bank of japan off of the hook if you like. jon: jane fully, the head of fx strategy, what a move in the japanese currency. good morning. equity futures up 1.4% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, the story of facebook sending the nasdaq 100 higher, much higher, by almost two percentage points. here are the moves in the fx market, euro-dollar 1.05. 1.04 earlier. dollar yen through 130 in the

first time. tom: huge deal. we will focus on japanese yen and the affects globally but so many other stories out there. apple and amazon later today. right now on the war, jack fitzpatrick is in washington and maria tadeo in brussels. this is with great respect to all of those at risk, who is winning this war right now? >> that's a difficult question to answer. the russians say we will win the war and this is not over, it is too early to make a final assessment on this end. tom, the next 10 days will be incredibly crucial. we know that for the russians, victory day, i know we talk about this all the time but it's incredibly important, may 9, vladimir putin has pressure to go on the record and show there is a victory in ukraine. he will not stop until that date. it is so important for the russians. it is a soviet celebration and a context in which the country

says it is defying ukraine. when you look at ukraine, they tell you we are already winning and since russia has not been able to take any major city. mar you bowl is still standing - - mariupol is still standing. the battle for dunbas is crucial. as long as they have weapons, they will not surrender. tom: how to the weapons get to the ukraine army? maria: they're going through polling, through the czech republic, and through a lot of neighbors that will not sate openly because they worry about being targeted by the russian army. we have seen that before, warmings from the kremlin's saying if you supply weapons you have become belligerent in this war, stay out. yesterday, another warning by vladimir putin so it is coming from this eastern european countries. we know poland is a major distribution hub but not the own one. having said that, there are

secrets on how they get in but they are still there. if not their weapons it is weapons provided by allies. lisa: maria brings up a good point, the redlines viewed as escalation in terms of which weapons are being supplied to ukraine have gotten kicked out again and again. what is the new redline we will hear from president biden when he gives his speech later this morning? >> i don't know we will hear redlines about limits on the u.s. involvement but we are going to hear more details on what we are sending and what he is asking from congress. in terms of what we exactly send, i have heard skepticism from lawmakers on fighter jets. obvious a that was a request the lenski made a while back the democrats in particular thought the focus should be on smaller arms, and they feel the javelins and stingers and switchblade drones seem to be working well. but this is going to be a broader speech from biden on

longer-term aid. there will be the military component, economic component, it sounds to be fairly wide-ranging, the requests they make from congress. antony blinken told congress yesterday he expects this gets into the global food eight issue, may be staged possibility of getting u.s. diplomats back eventually reopening an embassy in key. this will be a focus on the military, economic, and diplomatic components of all of this. lisa: before let you go, maria, i want your take on what the latest is with respect on oil and gas, embargoes on russia given the fact poland was among those in bulgaria that got their oil shut off by russia. has there been any cohesion with the allies in the eu about how to proceed from here? maria: i think there are two things, we will not see anything until mid-may. poland and bulgaria have specific cases. it is a warning shot by the russians on what they could

potentially do but i do not see -- think we will see the same with italy or germany until mid-may. that is in the new rule payments are due and in terms of possible embargo as well, biden is weak -- cn of the week there will be a light embargo on russian oil but the question, and this is very much the issue, is the gas. this is not an oil story, the gas story. for the time being and there's a lot of confusion in terms of will that flow, should the european union cut it off before they get cut off and how do you favor this? the head of the european commission says if you pay rubles, that is in breach of sanctions and you could be in a big problem today. for a lot of european companies, they do not know how to navigate this. lawyers will be working overtime on this because this is a serious question and they do not have the answer today. jon: maria tadeo in brussels and jack fitzpatrick in washington,

d.c. i don't get what is going on here or what will happen. i have no idea about that either. tom: we don't know. there are too many variances. i look at the war and i say this with much respect, we are down to basic war coverage of who is winning. i look at the zeitgeist this morning and i do not think we know. jon: many focused on the energy story. who is next? i think that is the question. what did poland and bulgaria do others did not do? why were they cut off and why were not others? i think we need more detail on that. lisa: and how much is this because they are smaller buyers and can be pushed around more than the likes of germany? also germany coming out yesterday saying they are ok with or at least according to reporting by bloomberg, a phased in removal of oil imports from russia, and i wonder who is this going to bite first? if they tell russia we will not buy oil from you, that basically

removes incentive from russia to keep supplying oil. jon: russia just gets to rewrap crude, getting the time to reroute crude -- gets to reroute crude, getting the time to figure out how to reroute crude. what does that achieve? lisa: even with bulgaria and poland, they say they get oil and gas from their neighbors. where did that come from? all of these things are technicalities and you are also hearing companies are lining up payments in rubles to keep going with some of the supplies from russia. jon: the europeans are now, particularly germans, it is utterly embarrassing from what is happening on the ground and embarrassing because they continue to find it. tom: the funding is there, and i think the granularity as you and i have talked about is really important on funding. i will be honest, i am watching italy. i think there a story here. i wonder how draghi will react

to what we see on rubles in italy. jon: futures up on the s&p 500, a bounce back on the nasdaq, up 2%. facebook or as lisa would call it, meta--- >> i was wrong, it is a big story. jon: a big move industry market. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: good morning on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance and here's your price action. futures are positive on the s&p 500 by 1.4%. on the nasdaq 100, up by almost twofold -- to full percentage points. the team at bloomberg suggesting a third of that move is from one single name. let's get to that name now. it is facebook. facebook user growth, growth, yes it is back, a little bit anyway. the stock is a ball a lot more because it was down a whole lot of the year so far. up 17% in two yesterday, down by more than 40%. amazon and apple still to come, those two names, 20% of the nasdaq 100. they report after the close. let's finish on this, an embarrassing moment for the japanese policymaker, make sense of this for me. on the same to the bank of japan

is coming out and pledging, doubling down and pledging to come in and bind unlimited amount of japanese government bonds, the cap on the 10 year yield at 0.2 5%, the ministry of finance, according to a source speaking to us, they are extremely concerned about the move in the fx market. the n up 1.4 percent. the action to the boj and concern for the ministry of finance in japan right now in total conflict with each other. tom: this is interesting. not that i'm an expert on the culture of this but i would suggest your administrative finance and chosen few end up at the lovely bank of japan is sort of the passage you have there with a very rigid academic hierarchy. i have felt the tension when i have been in tokyo between the two institutions. i am sorry but my radar is on ministry of finance rather than bank of japan. jon: you cannot have it both ways.

we have action in the boj and work in the ministry of finance. what can they do to offset what the boj is doing in unlimited amounts? tom: they need to prepare for the unexpected. and we are there, the unexpected. what do we do if christopher once the yen? jon: we have a problem. bonds, treasuries, are they going to manage to keep the japanese government bond a 0.25 percent with all that's going on and also managed to cap the move in dollar-yen? i would suggest good luck. tom: good luck is maybe the british way of putting it, unlike yeah right. what we will do now is bloomberg surveillance and welcome you all to radio television to a clinic now with winston, global head of currency strategy at brown brothers chairman and barely describes his perspective on the history of foreign exchange in -- and specifically his pacific rim from japan down to his firm.

doctor, thank you for joining us. i think we need to educate all, including myself, on the ancient japanese trajectory of needing to week the yen. the yen starts out at 19.49 after world war ii, set at 360, then goes on to 200, stronger yen, stronger yen, two years later we screwed up, 120 and then the shock which you and i lived in 1995 of to use a phrase from boston, strong and of 80. where are we at now at 130 within the ancient japanese continuum to the hate and dislike of the strong yen? dr. thin: first off, thank you for having me. it's always a pleasure. i think there are two things we are two things we're looking at right now, the old adage you can never have too much of a good thing. the japanese policymakers have

been looking for a week yen and higher inflation for years if not decades and they are finally getting it but at a pace that is quite comfortable. i want to circle back to what jonathan mentioned about how to square the circle and they cannot. effexor mundell, who i had the pleasure of having a class in grad school, way back in the 1960's, talked about a possible trinity. you cannot have free capital controls, run independent policy, and also influence exchange-rate. you cannot have all three. japan has free capital flows and they are keeping monetary policy ultra-loose. as mr. mundell would say, professor mundell would say, it is impossible to control yen. it will find its own level. the doubling down on yield curve control is a stark contrast. earlier today, the ritz bank delivered a surprise hike. when the ritz bank is more hawkish than you, that is saying something. [laughter] jon: when were in a situation

like this one, i think we recognize something has to give. i won't use the words something has to break but something has to give. how do you get a read on what gives? is it in the government bond market or in foreign exchange? dr. thin: i would say it's too early to determine. it is not just a japanese phenomenon obviously. this control could be sustained if global bond yields had remained as low levels -- at low levels and here we are, the u.s. 10 is getting close to 3%. it is making it more challenging. to me, the bank of japan delivered an ultra dovish hold. if you look at the forecast, they are saying no tightening through fiscal year 2024. i thought -- think they kept their core inflation around one point 4% for fiscal year 2023 and 2024. that is quite a statement. at some point they will have to turn around and i think my feeling right now is this policy

will be kept going through the end of the term which ends early next year and will allow the successor to wrestle with this. that is a year out, i know it sounds like a maternity, but eventually we will have yield control. i do not think it will happen soon but it is unnatural. having a 10 year is unnatural. i think that is where it will go but we are nowhere near close to the pain threshold. lisa: how much does this disrupt the idea of the yen as a haven trade? how much does this redirect flows sibley into the dollar as the only haven left? dr. thin: that's a good point. that's really what the puzzle is right now. over this last week or two of risk off activity, the yen weakened. certainly something to look out for, we did have some lower dollar-yen in response to risk off but it is very minuscule,

maybe one to two yen. i think this monetary policy is the driving force. yes we have a little risk off, maybe a couple of one or 2%, but to me, there's an underlying story of monetary policy. the yen will go holler -- go higher. i have heard 150 but i take one step at a time and get to the 2000 too high of 135 and see where things stand. lisa: christopher was just on saying the knock on effects to china, the yuan overnight will be a big concern to the chinese authorities. do we expect further intervention there in order to stave off some of the dramatic pace of moves if not the direction? dr. thin: china is obviously very interesting, despite introducing more markets, their heavy-handed in markets across china. i would point out to monetary policy there is a story there.

people's bank of china, more dovish innocence there loosening policy. japan is maintaining loose policy but we see people saying china cuffed reserve requirements and they take interest rates were lower. that is more weakness more than the knock on effects. that monetary policy under boc's is even stronger. they can control the pace of its a bit more than japan can obviously and they have a heavy hand, but make no mistake, dollar you on is going higher -- dollar yuan is going higher. tom: i will phrase this carefully to what you said two to three questions ago, what we're going to hear is bad people like that george soros on black wednesday 1992 "are manipulating yen, are manipulating dollar, are manipulating the currency

market." respond to that. does the market tell these powers and institutions what to do? dr. thin: no. that is a terrible troll, these conspiracy theories. the market is the market. we have hedge funds, real money, speculation. of course all corporations we have all sorts of players in the foreign exchange market. i would posit right now upwards of $3.5 trillion per day of fx close daily and that is getting much harder to manipulate the market. it is easy back in the markets when we have capital flows not as large. it is always easy to see this a lot in emerging markets but you always blame the foreign speculators. it is a terrible sentiment that i wish would go the way of the wild west. it is not the way the fx market is right now. jon: great to catch up.

if there is manipulation going on right now, japan is driven by the central bank, bottom line. at the end of last year, the boj owned more than 40% of the jgb market. who is the manipulator here? if you have a central bank that comes on says fixed-price, i am fixing the market, there is a ceiling in the japanese government bond market and a zero -- on the tenure, whose manipulating the market? tom: this is important. john uses the correct word, fixing. the bowtie institutional response is a silly word, control, which robert mundell won the nobel prize for in his work with winston at columbia. the reality is they are doing a control experiment and rule 102 of fx is they always fail at some stress point. we are there now. jon: the s&p can hold the line. tom: exactly. jon: the boj can hold the line.

ultimately, soros came up with -- struck and miller came up with a trade saying put it on its side. this is not about them fixing the market. you have the central bank that tries to fix the trade and someone in the market saying guess what, i will be brave enough to put on a bet and say i don't think they can. tom: i think an evening broadcast seem to veil and from tokyo works. i think it is warranted. the imperial hotel, the bar that is the original frank lloyd wright, i see a remote there. jon: we might not get out of the country. futures up 1.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq up 2%. from new york for our audience worldwide with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up today with news from around the world with the first word, i lisa matteo. president biden plans to deliver remarks for ukraine coming as

his administration looks at then congress proposal for weapons and humanitarian aid for ukraine that would last through september. a proposal would include funds to help remove landmines and combat food insecurity. president ursula von der leyen is warning companies not to bend to russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles. they have turned off the taps to poland and bulgaria and a dramatic escalation them a good if rubles were not used for payment. attention turns to help big consumers germany and italy respond. a new study says the u.k. should focus on cooperation with the u.s. to bolster its finance industry following brexit. according to two think tanks, written should be moving on from attempts to push for access for eu markets. the study says closer ties with the u.s. could help u.k. grow its capital market business by 40%. the world's biggest commodity trader is heading for another year of bumper profits.

they say based on first-order performance, trading profits will be comfortably above the top end of its guidance rate. glencore is cashing in on soaring prices for raw materials and market volatility. traders at barclays delivered a surprise jump in revenue during a volatile first quarter that helped offset a quieter -- for british bank dealmakers and a charge for overselling u.s. security. barclays revenue from fixed income. east -- fixed income currencies sword already 7%. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa matteo and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it will be impossible to prevent a reoccurrence of a single taste of covid and any

cities in china. if this policy continues, this will wreak havoc on the people, the residence of china in these cities. jon: gary luck, the former u.s. ambassador to china. new york city -- from new york city, good morning. the nasdaq 100 up by 1.95% off the back of earnings from facebook after the close yesterday. after the close today, we hear from amazon and apple. we heard from caterpillar moments ago. the -- these headlines are probably what you want to hear. they see margin improvement -- expect margin improvement in the secnav of 2022 versus the first half of 2022. tom: spx up 1.3% and nasdaq with the facebook leap up 1.9%. i think it is fascinating. i do not have any strong opinion here on the durability of earnings. the fact is i'm a selected

sectors are coming in and i would be riveted at 4:15 for amazon and apple. earnings are colliding with a ton of doubt for the second half of this year. on how i roots will go. tom: the epsilon and backside of the equation, it is about the war in ukraine and maybe about domestic issues here. maybe it is about the end and weaker yen. at the end of the day, it's continues the pandemic. lean forward right now on radio and television, professor of epidemiology at johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health and he is truly an authority on international ramifications of this horrific pandemic. doctor, i want to cut to the chase in the zeitgeist is delta than omicron. omicron is slipping away. there are two identifiable variants and i believe in south

africa where you just were there is even a third variant. i'm can -- i'm confused. how virile and, how important are these new dare i say three variants? >> these are also variants of omicron. really there is nothing circulating anything anymore worldwide except omicron and subvariants. these appear to be recumbent viruses within the omicron lineage. what we have seen and the most recent science is omicron is better at evading the binding site of the virus to our tissues. that was just out from my hopkins colleagues last -- in the last day or two. that is why we see breakthrough infractions -- infractions -- breakthrough infections. that is a major concern. the good news is if you are vaccinated and boosted, the great majority of people have

mild disease or a symptom at a disease. yesterday, despite more than 52,000 new infections, we know that is any undercount, we had fewer than 360 deaths in the united states. deaths are down. tom: deaths are down. do you see a trend where we have these infections and this is opposite of what we see in china, we have these infections, we are within our public lives, death sicko down toward a normal flu-like level of 130 to 150 a day. is that the final outcome? >> that certainly is the outcome ahead as long as omicron is what is circulating. we cannot say if there will be another variant on another lineage or if we have a worsening variant with omicron. it is too soon to know that. but what is circulating now, that is the trend we are on. that is why the doctor earlier this week said we are out of the pandemic phase. china is not.

those maintaining zero covid policies are in a different position. the cdc just put out the u.s. population, now 60% of americans, have had covid infection and evidence of covid infection and 75% of our children. so that is quite dramatic and two thirds of us are fully vaccinated and boosted. they situation and countries that went with zero covid is of course they are trying to stop anybody from getting a single infection. you cannot do that with the omicron -- with omicron. that is even more true of the subvariant. lisa: what is the new pharmaceutical front you are watching that could be where people put all of their money next in order to deal with an and i make virus that has a comparable profile? >> the antivirals continue to be promising and certainly the paxlovid, the current antiviral, has the great advantage that it

is working just as well against any of the variance because it attacks the viral aspect that viruses have to have two replicate. it is also true that we now need to neutralize anybody's. omicron has been able to evade many of the neutralizing anybody's at work against the older variant, the original variant. there is a lot of work on that front but we should remember that all this work has been done in partnership with the nih and with the public sector, america's great scientific universities. that funding for the covid vaccine prevention network and covid antiviral network expires in november. congress has not acted on reauthorizing it. that has to happen. we cannot have now any abrupt end of the research effort on covid. that would be so unwise. jon: for people still getting covid and many are, how easy is

it to get paxlovid? if you what the antiviral pills, how easy is it to get them? dr. thin: it has been -- >> it has been frustrating for people and i think much easier -- it should be much easier than it is. you really need to start taking what we have in the first three to five days. as soon as you get symptoms, you need to start. it is still difficult for people to find them, to get a prescription, providers are not necessarily so comfortable with them. if you lose those couple first days, at this he goes down dramatically. the only thing we do not know is if antivirals or vaccines really are having an impact on long covid. long covid of course is emerging as extremely important, unfortunately quite common, location, may be up to 30% of people, including people who have had relatively mild cases of covid can still have long covid. it can be debilitating and it is

important. that is also a research area that we need to be investing in. both for companies in the public sector research effort. there are cohorts underway, people are trying to treat these patients and help them, but it is a frustrating syndrome and it can have complications in the brain and cognitions, thinking, memory, areas we all want to preserve. jon: wonderful to catch up with you. it is good to hear from you. dr. chris beyrer school of public health. -- of the john hopkins school of health. decent numbers from down to united and american too. lisa: basically people are saying we will keep traveling and perhaps not wear masks. the idea people want to move on regardless of the risks, i wonder with southwest for example reporting earnings coming out slightly worse than expected of the losers and winners in this. jon: twitter coming up shortly

as well. twitter coming up shortly without an earnings call later. and a big spread between where the stocks are trading and the price of elon musk. tom: we have not done enough on twitter. jon: we can do twitter just for you. ♪

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>> we've had two years of helicopter money, but now we are paying the price with higher inflation. >> at some point the anxiety around the fed will lead to a greater scare of recession. >> it could get worse if the fed is moves shift the fed moves as fast -- worse if the fed moves as fast. >> the question you should ask yourself is where can i find safety in the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a ton of tech earnings coming right up. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures positive by 1.4% on the s&p. after the close, amazon and apple. tom: we have been distracted this morning with a lot of macro babble.