>> we've had two years of helicopter money, but now we are paying the price with higher inflation. >> at some point the anxiety around the fed will lead to a greater scare of recession. >> it could get worse if the fed is moves shift the fed moves as fast -- worse if the fed moves as fast. >> the question you should ask yourself is where can i find safety in the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a ton of tech earnings coming right up. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures positive by 1.4% on the s&p. after the close, amazon and apple. tom: we have been distracted this morning with a lot of macro babble.

chris verrone with weekend -- with weak yen out to 150. i was wrong on facebook. they delivered in spades. i loved what dan ives of wedbush said. they get a pop this morning off the user growth and stability. jonathan: lost almost 50% so far coming into the earnings story, so certainly a pop up of pretty depressed expectations. speaking of growth, mcdonald's just out, sales for the first quarter plus 11.8%. tom: the key now, if you look at paragraph 42, it will mention a little bit of road trip there by mcdonald's, sales and all of that. it comes back down to if they can raise prices. it comes down to a number to value meal at mcdonald's, not that i would know anything about number two value meal. jonathan: i don't believe you

actually do, but carry on. tom: i go to lunch on 3rd avenue at the mcdonald's, which i do four times a week on the amex. guess what, can they raise prices? jonathan: prices are rising very quickly in america. the federal reserve has to hike interest rates. the ecb might join the party. the bank of japan has no interest whatsoever of doing the same thing. the boj doubled down this morning on coming into this market and capping a 10 year jump in japanese government bonds add 0.25 percent. the ministry of finance said they are uncomfortable with what is going on in the fx market. they said they are deeply concerned about the moves in foreign exchange. can you square those two things? tom: i am going to say this again, this is actually some really complex stuff. we killed ourselves this morning trying to give you best in class simplicity on this complexity. all you need to focus on is a

theoretical experiment wrapped around the word control. they have a control yield curve, and the answer is it always fails at some point. is that failure now, or is it next year? lisa: you actually set it up perfectly talking about prices and the relationship to what the bank of japan is going to do because this is not a positive for a nation that, in the past, he would her he perhaps would be more strength in exports. now they have to deal with importing inflation akin to what they have not seen before. this has been more than a 10% depreciation versus the dollar in seven weeks. jonathan: so far it is action versus words. in that environment, action often wins out, and it is the action of the boj waiting out at the moment. lisa: they are going to try to control this yield curve. at what point do they on the market?

at what point do they have to capitulate to the concerns of the foreign ministry? jonathan: well said. it is no longer a market. has not been has it? futures up 1.5% on the s&p. helped out by the earnings story from facebook. then it is onto amazon, it is on to apple. yields coming in a couple of basis points. crude a little bit lower, $101.43, down 0.6%. lisa: we get a data dump out of the united states at 8:30 a.m. u.s. first core gdp and pce, the classic inflation gauge looked at by the fed, likely rising further here. i am trying to understand what potential weakness could mean going forward. we had tom porcelli of rbc overnight saying it could be a negative print, and even though everyone is expecting this and it is trade related and people will look past it, it is still a market talking about weakness in the economy in the united

states. president biden will speak about the situation in ukraine, potentially u.s. aid to ukraine. we will also hear from you in secretary-general antonio guterres, meeting with volodymyr zelenskyy today. earnings do continue. we are awaiting at any moment twitter. we are of course going to see apple and amazon. meta, i am fascinated by how much the pop is. i think dan ives put it really well. perhaps this is a game of expectations considering how beaten up those shares were. the nasdaq down still windy percent so far this year. -- down 20% still so far this year. jonathan: those earnings do any moment now. joining us now is someone who likes emerging markets, who likes u.s. stocks. wei li, global chief investment strategist at black rock. why do you still like the equity

story? wei: if using about the broader macro environment, indeed we have more challenges now. thinking about policy certainty, thinking about property rate hikes. putting aside the year to date develop meant, real rates, we are still talking about really low levels versus historical averages, and also the broader growth in our view, the spillover from the war in ukraine will impact european economies a lot more than u.s. economies, so our estimates of the spillover of growth impacting the u.s. economy for this year is out to 0.5% gdp growth, which is a lot smaller than what we are expert in for european economies. that being the case, we prefer u.s. markets over european markets. we do like emerging markets best

, but emerging market we prefer to play it to local em equities. tom: you go right to where i want to go, which is local paper. i want you to give me the spillover on this new strong dollar. black rock has to be riveted to the ethics dynamics of yield dynamics in price. how do you adjust to strong dollar in this crisis with the yen? wei: indeed, what we have seen so far dollar-yen, we are talking about two standard deviations away from the cabin office breakeven estimate, and credible currency volatility. that very much speaks to policy divergence. so on the one hand you have central banks like the pboc and

boj are get on the other hand you have central banks like the fed and ecb looking to get closer to neutral as quickly as possible. specifically in the case of japan, not only do we have a monetary side of things still remaining very accommodative, on the fiscal side of things they are coming through as well. they recently just announced $48 billion of fiscal aid to ease the inflation pain. so very different from what we are seeing in japan, still seeing the support coming from the monetary side as well is the fiscal side of things. the japanese yen should be a support for japanese equities, given a negative correlation between the two, but that correlation was broken down a little bit in recent years because a lot of the japanese

corporate's are overseas. but we like the currency hedged basis at this point. lisa: just taking a step back, is the only havens occurred -- the only haven currency left the dollar? wei: that is a great question. so far if you look within currencies, the dollar has been to keep. that is where people hide when things go wrong. but one has to also question at some point the benefit of government bonds as i diversifier. we have to discuss at which point, i'd which levels govern bonds and be good again as diversifiers. so far they have not been good. they have done the opposite of what we expected. but there is a level at which point government bonds will be attractive, and their diversification benefits would also come back in place.

that is something else we are paying very close attention to. jonathan: you said some thing really interesting then. you like japanese equities still on a currency hedge basis. why would you hedge the currency , and how expensive is it to do that right now, given the moves we are seeing? wei: that is a great question. we turned positive on japanese equities earlier in the year, and we wanted to kind of hedge out the currency side of things because the lighting correlation between equities and currency, and also because the expectation of a currency to weaken given policy divergence, 130 if we are talking about fresh entry into japanese markets, we probably would not be too encouraged because this represents two standard deviation move, and

cost is rising. jonathan: thank you. some big questions right now worldwide in foreign exchange. if you take that foreign exposure, do you want to hedge that are not? given the move we have seen in japan, if you are a u.s.-based investor, pretty tidy move. lisa: but how much are you paying for that hedge? that has been one of the big issues for people who want to buy debt currently based in japan with u.s. denominations. jonathan: can you imagine how expensive it must be to hedge some of this stuff now? lisa: that is the reason why some of these yields in the u.s. are not making sense to japanese investors. tom: you move out of bank of japan to the mcdonald's at tokyo station. it is expensive. jonathan: have you just done some research? tom: i have done that research myself. jonathan: that i believe, if there was a drink or something involved as well. tom: what there really is is the greatest bookstore in the world on the way to mcdonald's in tokyo. it is the greatest bookstore in the world.

jonathan: that move in foreign exchange has got to hurt. your 10 year yield, 2.81 47%. equity futures positive. this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the bank of japan doubling down on bond purchases. central bank said it would buy an unlimited amount of bonds at fixed rates every business day. that punted the yen to hit a two decade low against the dollar. bloomberg has learned u.s. has lifted some restrictions on sharing intelligence with ukraine. the expanded sharing is intended to help ukraine defend its territory in the east and south, where russia has renewed and offensive. some have urged restrictions to be lifted. moderna has asked u.s. regulators for emergency use authorization for its covid vaccine for kids ages six months to under six years.

a successful trial showed two doses generate high levels of antibodies to the virus. there is currently no vaccine approved for those under five. cities across china are rolling out swift measures from mass testing drives to lockdowns for a mere handful of coronavirus cases. they are trying to keep flareups at bay and avoid the hardships endured by shanghai. the responses reflect the growing stakes local governments face and wrestling with the highly infectious omicron strain. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what is playing out in yen right now is so reminiscent of what happened in september 1992 this bank of england and the pound. the bank of japan's fantasy that they can keep a lid on 10 year jgb's at 25 basis points, the currency market is laughing at that. jonathan: chris verrone was laughing at that, too. good morning. futures look like this on the s&p, on the nasdaq, too, up by more than 2% on the s&p 500. this from the equity team at jp morgan. "energy remains our highest conviction overweight sector with earnings growth and multiple rerating --

multiple reratings still." tom: it is fascinating. this is a recapitulation of their outstanding 100 page opus of about a week and a half ago. christyan malek writing it up. what to me is fascinating is a completely reset with an $80 benchmark was everything geared higher, and they say the energy sector, and they walk through four or five or six metrics. jonathan: on the year this year, that sector on the s&p 500 up 35%. quite a move, and corrected lower more recently, but quite a move still. tom: london, jp morgan on board with a move higher. that goes to the may be the immediate politics of the european front on this were in ukraine. maria tadeo joins from brussels. jack fitzpatrick in washington as well. let me go domestic on you right now. if washington was to read the

100 page jp morgan report -- full disclosure, no one will -- but if they were, how do republicans and democrats set to guesstimate $120 oil? jack: when it comes to oil prices, that has dominated discussions in washington lately. it has been very partisan. obviously republicans are pushing for much more domestic production. the critique of that from democrats is that that would take a much longer time. there is sort of an understanding that everything in ukraine is having a negative effect on this and there are limits to what the u.s. can do. there's a conversation about what they can do on gas prices, but given high deficits and exactly how that works, there is not an obvious solution or even

short-term action being discussed right now. tom: i've got aaa unleaded, $3.41 a gallon. it is much higher where lisa abramowicz fills up. but before lisa goes to maria, if we break through to a new price per gallon hi, which clearly on the chart is doable, how does your world react? jack: they try to come up with something, especially on the democratic side, as we head towards november, toward the midterms. there's a bit of a sense of desperation that makes things very difficult for democrats. there are conversations about do you come up with some sort of rebate plan to try to cut prices. it is a very difficult issue that has already settled into the years long, long term partisan debate over energy production and things that are not necessarily relevant to

today's gas prices in the short term. so it is really kind of an issue that has already morphed into campaign rhetoric probably more than actual actions that the government would take at this point in the short term. lisa: in the european union it is a bit more eminent, and i am so confused over payment in rubles, what the new policy is, how the eu is going to move forward in terms of demands the kremlin is making and the fact that they say that violates sanctions. maria: you are not the only one. if you are a major european company today, you don't know what to do, and you look at this as a red light across the board/and for you because of course, that means you could potentially breach european sanctions and everything that comes with it. today we had a european official once again who was speaking to us just a few minutes ago who said we reiterate, european companies should only set up a euro denominated company or account with russia, make the

payment, and declare that payment complete and fulfilled. that is where it should stop. nothing else. if you go beyond that, you are in breach of sanctions. a ball is back to moscow's court. it will depend on how the russians accept this. what i would say is there are two things going forward. one is this is a serious test for the unity of the european union. we know there's a number of countries who hall also said we would rather pay rubles and get the gas. secondly, it brings of a more important question, which is are we going to see an embargo from the european union to front run the russians before they cut it off and move that leverage away from vladimir putin? that is a big question. if you are a european company today, it is a very difficult day to navigate. lisa: are you surprised that there is not been more response to what is going on? maria: in some ways, but the idea that we have seen poland and bulgaria cut off from the market on wednesday, this was a warning shot and russia is not

ready to tackle italy and germany. that is a key diplomatic relationship for the russians. they are not ready to go for those two countries just yet. but the key date to keep in mind will be mid-may, when the new payments in rubles will be due for the two of them. jonathan: wonderful work there. jack fitzpatrick downing washington, d.c. as well. we've got to t -- we got a ton to talk about in this market. tom: standard chartered with a huge focus on the knock on effects of the em. ben emmons just published a blistering note going back to fleming and mundell, and he says flat out, this is, to borrow a phrase from the giants of the early 1960's, "an impossible trinity" for boj. jonathan: let's talk about that

right now. they want to get back to 2% inflation. they want to cap yields at 0.25% on the 10 year, but they don't want the currency depreciation that comes with it. something has got to give. lisa: especially because they are seeing some inflation, but not the right kind of inflation, so they want to hold rates low enough to engage with a growth picture at a time when global inflation that they are going to import is only going to impede that. this is a very difficult situation. at a certain point you see that tension bubble out between the agencies. jonathan: per had a bit of phrasing -- perhaps a bit of phrasing came from luke kawa, the kuroda dilemma -- the " kuroda trilemma." tom: my point is we are here now , coming up with a concept, moving from trinity to trilemma.

jonathan: this is a 1.7% move on dollar-yen, pushing 131 now, 130 point 62. you got the bank of japan doubling down and the ministry of finance suggesting they are not happy about the currency moves. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. right now, futures positive 1.5%. the nasdaq helped out by the facebook story, up by more than 2%. into the bond market, less than a week away from the federal reserve, your two-year yield coming in just a little bit, down to two basis points. down about a basis point or so on the 10 year. the made event is this one right here in japan. the japanese 10 year yield, can you achieve that without a weak currency? a weaker japanese yen. in just one day, the boj comes

out, doubles down and says we are going to cap this ceiling on the japanese 10 year, 0.25%. we are committed to it. a few hours later, and initial -- unofficial at the mr. finance says we are deeply concerned by what is happening. tom: you get was in the triangle, and we do it now with steve englander. first isaac was got kriti gupta on tech. jonathan: we are waiting for some twitter earnings as well. tom: i thought they were out. lisa: i cannot tell you. jonathan: you were talking -- tom: you were talking to elong on the break -- to elon on the break. jonathan: here are your single names. we can get them with critical to. kriti: talking about those tech moves, you really see that in

the massive user growth number coming back. it's a lot but growth is in instagram. really powering the stocks this morning. qualcomm is the other one. this is the biggest iphone chip supplier across the world, huge when it comes to forecasting what apple is going to say after the bell today. they came out with earnings that not only beat, it was a robust strong outlook. the demand picture is doing better, so shares up 6.7% this morning. apple really taking the lead from qualcomm. apple after the bell talking about consumer demand and the supply chain. let's talk about amazon, not just consumer demand here in the states, but really there global e-commerce business. if there is pain in the e-commerce business, does amazon web services offset that? speaking of global demand, caterpillar under pressure, down 1.9 percent, just shy of 2%.

this is a company to mix construction equipment. lastly, let's talk about donald. everything to do with the currency pitcher. you were talking about a stronger dollar, weaker euro, weaker pound. i thing about 68% mcdonald's revenue comes from abroad, so they have to convert it back to dollars. nevertheless, they came out with earnings so that sales are fast and furious. tom: we were talking currency, talking the number two value meal as well being very important. seriously, this afternoon we will all be riveted to apple and amazon. we spoke with wrister for verona -- with chris verrone. now for a meal university and standard chartered bank, stephen lender -- steve englander with

global wall street this morning. you and i studied at m.i.t., we will go to you right now. how is this trilemma different from what was codified? steve: we know the boj is unlikely to be able to keep all of them, and the intervention they have to do on the bond buying front right now is the degree of freedom they are using. the boj may be rolling dice with the universe, but what they may be hoping is that they can get the yen week quick enough, inflation up fast enough, including wages, not just consumer prices driven by energy imports, and then release the ycc constraints that they have so they could finally have

domestic core inflation in line with their inflation objectives. tom: you introduce a lot of complexity. let's go to the outcome we know is coming. is yield curve control sums and that will fail outright, or do you believe they can amend it in some fashion to reveal dollar strength in yen collapse? steven: one, yield curve control works in a very limited set of circumstances. you can't use yield curve control to make it one. what it can do is, if you are setting is correct, it can guide expectations until the market you are not having fluctuations around it. the one thing i would say, if you take a look at how the

chinese currency is trading against the yen, it is at its highest level in 10 years. when you look at the end against other asian currency, it is very high. i expect the boj is getting phone calls from its peers in asia asking what is going on. lisa: how high would yields be in japan if yield curve controls went the way of the trashcan? steven: they are like 35 basis points higher. normally they are flat. my guess is unless they release it entirely, yields would just go up to a new limit. if they raised it to 50, we would probably see jujube yields go to 50 and swap spreads go even higher, anticipating there would be a complete release at

some point. lisa: the reason i ask is when you talk about something breaking, it seems like there's a fear of something breaking on the other side. which is the worst fear right now, something breaking if the bank of japan were to release yield curve control or the fear of something breaking if the japanese continues to depreciate? steven: on the japanese side, they still have fiscal issues, and the ministry of finance has been blessed by having very low interest rates for a very long time. the boj buying a lot of jgb debt makes it easy. were they to back off and were yields to go up, the market would start taking a closer look at japanese fiscal sustainability, i think that the level of the yen against its

competitors in the rest of asia, is not just a small break. it is up by 10% to 15% over the last two months. i think that will be a cause of concern, even if not now because right now i don't think japanese production can ramp up because the yen is cheaper. but once we get past the covid issues, it will be material whether the yen is as weak as it is now because they will both exploit the competitive advantage against their neighbors. jonathan: the comment from the ministry of finance got us thinking about intervention. when you go back to the earthquake in 2011 and we had the joint intervention from the g7, that was because the currency was too strong. right now it is too weak. it also said the big difference was it just feels like they are alone on this one, that if they tried to intervene, they are doing it so low. how big a difference is that? steven: literally the earthquake was an act of god.

this is a box that have kind of put themselves into. i think the odds of intervention, coordinated intervention, would go up a lot if they relaxed prices, but it could be viewed as throwing money away. jonathan: steve, fantastic zoo catch up with you on a morning like this one. dk, they are flying solo. this is a problem of their own creation in a world where interest rates are rising and they refused to let bond yields come for the ride. tom: there's a little book you put in your hands, written by a guy named stanley fisher, i believe still at black rock. when he was on the watch at the imf, it was a debris of unexpected consequences of the early 1990's out to the financial crisis of 1990 eight. i would respectfully suggest this is no different. what steve englander is expert

on is the knock on effects of this. this is japan alone until they are not. what level is that? clearly it is not 130, but i am stunned that in emmons frames that 135, 140. jonathan: if the problem was in the bond market, maybe they would be less alone. at the moment this just feels very lonely for japan. japan and what japan means for the global economy is not what it meant 20 years ago. lisa: so if they are going this alone, they are going to get punished uniquely. the flipside of this story is the dollar. i want to point out the dollar is at session highs if you look at the dxy index. the idea that we are looking at the highest dollar value, the strongest going back to 2002, what does this mean for on shoring some of the supply chains, for domestic production given that this makes us not necessarily have the same competitive landscape? tom: i did this on the break while i was looking at my

mcdonald's order for this morning. i did a very weak, clumsy interpolation of pound sterling back to the major lows of 1992. it is squishy, but it is an 8% kind of move on sterling, and that gets you back under 1.20. jonathan: you know what i did in the break? had a look to make sure the number two value meal was a cheeseburger. just a fact-check. it is a quarter pounder with cheese. tom: but i amend it to two cheeseburgers. jonathan: i still don't believe that you go to mcdonald's. tom: the trick is you order without catch up so that you get fresh cooked burgers. jonathan: that's good news. i will try that one in like 10 years. tom: you and me, london. the liverpool station. jonathan: once and only once with you. we are never going back. this is bloomberg.

lisa m: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. president biden plans to deliver remarks today on support for ukraine as the end looks to send congress a proposal for weapons and humanitarian aid for ukraine that would last through september. the proposal would include funds to help remove landmines and combat food insecurity. european commission president ursula von der leyen is warning companies not to bend to russia's demands to pay for gas in rubles. they have turned off the taps to poland and bulgaria in a dramatic escalation. that made good on a threat if rubles were not used for payment. now attention turned to how big consumers germany and italy respond. a new study says u.k. should focus on closer cooperation with the u.s. to bolster its finance industry following brexit. according to two think tanks,

atlantic council and new financial, britain should move on from attempts to push for access to eu markets. the study says closer ties with the u.s. could help the u.k. grow its capital markets business by 40%. simpson reported a surge in first-quarter profit on strong sales of memory chips and premium smartphones, but the south korean company warned there are risks ahead from inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. samsung is considered a bellwether for the tech industry since it is the largest producer of memory chips for companies like apple. it is also the largest smartphone maker. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> our guidance here is very clear.

to pay in rubles, if this is not foreseen in the contract, to pay in rubles is a breach of our sanctions. we have around 97% of contract that asked lucidly stipulate payments in euros or dollars. jonathan: ursula von der leyen, the european commission president. here's the price action, positive 1.5% on the s&p, up by 2.12%. meta, facebook, the earnings for them helping them out. no earnings call later either. i guess for a lot of people, the relevance of these earnings have diminished somewhat over the last couple of weeks. interesting to see where this is trading. the gap is getting a little wider, not narrower, over the last few days. tom: there's a lot of things going on here. let's take two seconds on the 10

year yield. i get it, it is range bound, but it is also resilient to a higher yield. jonathan: we've got to wait for chairman powell next wednesday. . tom: i think it is off the radar. jonathan: the two-year yield is about 20 basis points off the highs of the last couple of weeks. tom: 30 seconds, farm journal. corn, wheat, higher. lisa: it is the highest levels i believe going back a decade or more. food inflation is going to be a real issue. tom: right now, daniel tannebaum with us, a real discussion, at oliver wyman. let's do sanctions 101. are they working?

daniel: working with respect to driving put in and the russian government out of ukraine? pretty clearly not. they have not pushed back the russian forces, but these sanctions were always going to take some time to force any sort of impact to the russian economy. sanctions were not going to work in isolation in conjunction with military aid, with the efforts of the ukrainian army on the ground. sanctions in isolation were never going to be the solution. tom: i want to go to your wheelhouse, speaking as a complete amateur. the russian boat goes into a harbor and we can't stop the russian boat, but in your world, we can stop the insurance and legal mechanisms that allows that boat to move. do we need to go after, and please stay with me on this, the

lloyd's of london like troops that affect logistics? daniel: russian vessels can't make her get that was announced last week i president biden. very few russian flag vessels make port calls in the u.s., but they are owned by a variety of other mechanisms. they will not move cargo. they will not move goods into and out of russia. tom: so maersk is cooperating. daniel: a number of shipping cooperating -- a number of should big companies are cooperating. lisa: if you had the thankless job of advising it german oil company right now, what would you tell them in terms of the financing mechanism to pay for oil from russia? daniel: this is getting complicated. you have ursula von der leyen who is clearly saying that

payment in rubles is in violation of sanctions. there is some confusion in terms of where in the regulations that is made explicit. you guys reported yesterday a number of eu countries have opened up her bull accounts in russia to make payment, and you also have the threat of eu sanctions on russian energy. we are all watching rodney dangerfield tee off, waiting for some sort of sanctions package to roll out all while russia is closing off the spigot for a number of countries. tom: i can't believe "caddy shack" didn't win the oscar. i've never gotten over it. lisa: i think a lot of people are in the same boat. but please carry on and try to move on from that. jonathan: watching you try to handle that is brilliant. [laughter] lisa: honestly, i am looking at what is going on, and a headline on the bloomberg saying companies must not open ruble accounts.

this is becoming an issue that needs to be unified in a splintered eu. do you expect a cohesive response in the next couple of weeks? daniel: i think it is very clear in my discussion with folks in the european union that we are coming up with some sort of cohesive package. russia could begin turning off more countries before the eu begins to announce its actual energy package at this rate. jonathan: they could reroute the crude as well, given the time they've got. you find that bizarre? have they got to accept some economic pain? if you start pacing -- start phasing in a russian crude ban. daniel: you can buy crude from the saudis. you can source crude elsewhere. lng is the bigger issue from an energy standpoint. jonathan: supersmart, as always. it is good to see you. daniel 10 about -- daniel

tannebaum in the studio. it is hard to control tk when you are this far away. [laughter] lisa: tom, what were you thinking with "caddy shack?" tom: what was i thinking, beside every moment is chiseled in? i mean, "be the ball." there are some parts there that resonate back to the beginnings of cinema. daniel: so i've got something there. tom: and look what it did for kenny loggins. dan had no idea he was going there. jonathan: i still have not watched the movie. tom: are you serious? that is un-american. lisa: i haven't seen it either, i'm going to be honest. tom: oh no. lisa abramowicz, ferro has an excuse. lisa: i'm looking at yields

right now. they are fascinating. people are worried about what they are not seeing it, which is the consumer. i think it will be fascinating to see that consumers are still picking up the price increases you are seeing across the board. i find that amazing so people are worried about something that has not happened yet and they are starting to price it in. jonathan: they always are, aren't they? the earnings have been decent. you mentioned the employment cost index. that is coming up tomorrow. a lot of economists focused on that going into the fed. i think it was chairman powell, when asked, said it was because the eci was really strong that one month. tom: mike mckee told me to follow that one. it is the one that matters, and there is some nuance you can do with it, but includes wages and

benefits. i would say although we have seen real estate in new york, no one cares about the eci. jonathan: it is all about the eci and nothing to do with the renomination german powell was getting at all. tom: haven't seen "caddy shack," geez.

>> was had two years of helicopter money, but now we are paying the price with higher inflation. >> at some point the anxiety around the fed will lead to a greater scare of recession. >> it could be worse if the fed moves as fast as it is telegraphing. >> the question you should ask yourself is where can i find safety in the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an historic day