>> was had two years of helicopter money, but now we are paying the price with higher inflation. >> at some point the anxiety around the fed will lead to a greater scare of recession. >> it could be worse if the fed moves as fast as it is telegraphing. >> the question you should ask yourself is where can i find safety in the world. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an historic day for "bloomberg

surveillance." we have microeconomics, we have amazon and apple this afternoon. all that is going on in europe. we have stock-based compensation at twitter. it grew 60% year-over-year. somehow i think that may end. tom: we got some -- jonathan: we got some earnings. they will not be providing any forward guidance. all previously provided goals and their outlook as well. after the close we will not have an earnings call this morning. yesterday that stock closed at $48, and the offer is $54.20. tom: that goes to the

complexities of this public to private transaction. operating margin compared to a plus 5% operating margin, i'm not quite sure what that means. the bottom line here is can we say -- how is mr. musk going to look at this? jonathan: i could not care less about this earnings report this money. we just had german cpi come in at 7.8%. the world has got bigger problems than this earnings report. tom: i have been screaming about this all morning with the news flow. we will get to the moment with alisha levine. in this set of news, what matters to you? ? lisa: the german inflation rate coming in higher-than-expected, the ecb's hands are very tied. over in the u.s., i have been

struck by the earnings that have come out. those higher costs being passed along to the consumers with no problem. in europe it might be a slightly different situation in driven by oil and gas. tom: i'm looking at the set of issues in london, and what i see is a long curve down and a weakening of pound sterling. my right to say pound sterling is disassociated from europe? jonathan: there's a similar story going on but when the bank of england and the ecb. the bank of england might be hiking into economic with us. the ecb, if it does hike, will be hiking into economic weakness. i think it was the silliest gkionakis -- i think it was vesely us cannot guess -- i think it was the silly oh's -- it was vasilios gkionakis who said it. i don't have a clue what the ecb is going to do later on this summer, with growth decelerating

, inflation pressure still building. what on earth do they do with interest rates? tom: so important with that, it is different than it was on monday. is today thursday? it is thursday right now, and the ecb has less of a clue now than they did 72 are 96 hours ago. jonathan: dollar-yen north of 130. the bank of japan, what was amazing about the boj today was what happened after the boj did what it did. the boj has come out and said we are doubling down and said i want to cap interest rates. we will come in every single business day and by an unlimited amount of bonds to make that happen. and if is the ministry of finance says we don't like what is happening in the foreign exchange market. we are deeply concerned about the weakness. you can't have both. something has got to give here. so it is either the currency or yield curve control.

tom: again with the set of interviews we've had, thank, particularly steve inlander -- steve inland -- steve englander of standard chartered. i'm looking at brent crude, $104 $.71. they scream higher oil. jonathan: futures up by 1.8%, 1.9% higher, returning to growth and deeply depressed expectations relative to where the stock was trading. on to later, we got earnings from amazon and apple after the close. tom: as jon mentions, the european central bank from ireland, philip lane the academic will be with us, chief economist for the ecb. that will be a timely conversation. always timely, alisha levine at b and y levine -- alecia levine -- alicia levine at bny mellon.

explain to an audience with a domestic portfolio by dollar-yen crisis matters. alicia: good morning, and it is great to see you even though the world seems to be giving us issues every time we wake up. our central bank is much tighter and much more willing to hike rates than anywhere else in the world because our economy is stronger than any other economy in the world, and what that means is a much stronger dollar for the u.s.. it is great if you're traveling, not great if you are a multinational company that has business overseas because your business is sourced in euros and those have to be converted back to dollars at a much more expensive dollar. so you've got pressure on earnings from overseas companies , and in general it is not great to see these currencies of our major trading partners so week because it suggests there is

real strength in the system here because of the differential in central banks. jonathan: the trade used to be go long equities. that is not the trade anymore for japan, is it? alicia: it is not. i think we should all be thinking about japan is a little bit of a tail risk here. if you have a market, something has to give here. of course, japan does by our treasuries. if you have to hitch the deft -- if you have to hedge the currency, even the difference rate if -- the interest rate differential might not be attractive for buyers. i think it is something that central banks have to start to pay attention to. the big fear on the fed hiking cycle, is something going to break? i do wonder whether this is the first sign of where the stress could be coming from. lisa: when you take a look at

the u.s. earnings that have been pretty solid all around and we start talking about a stronger dollar, at what point is that not simply an excuse for management? alicia: usually affects, when it is a swing of 3% or 4%, kind of goes away. it is a lousy quality earnings miss when the dollar is strong, and investors do tend to dismiss it. it starts to be a problem if overseas consumers cannot buy your goods. i suspect with the inflation numbers we are seeing, what is extraordinary about earnings season is that revenues are coming in pretty strong. what is not coming in strong's forward guidance. for the most part overall, companies are reluctant to really push guidance forward because there is a sense that there could be some demand disruption because of higher inflation globally, particularly here, and an unwillingness to really get ahead of it, and the

costs. lisa: basically, we are going to get an even weaker type of demand for u.s. prox because of the strong dollar? alicia: i would say overall, sentiment is clearly or negative. we have the historic bear sentiment readings we have not seen in 30 years, so in some ways that universal negativity is supporting the market, and some of the positioning and these larger cap tech stocks is so negative that anything, that is what the market has going for it right now. i do think we have some surprises going forward on the demand side. it will start eroding away the

bottom 40% of the u.s. consumer which is only 20% of u.s. consumption, but still that will start to matter, and these people now have real disposable income, which is less than before the pandemic. jonathan: alisha levine, great to catch up. we get more earnings after the close. amazon and apple. this money we had mastercard. the wrong kind of upside surprise just came out of germany. inflation coming through at 7.8% . tom: we have to stay at a 7% inflation statistic in a reunited germany, emotionally different than anywhere else on the planet. the baggage of this is profound. jonathan: can you imagine where rates would be if jean-claude trichet was still running the

ecb? tom: that was a decision of a long time ago, but the answer is by any metric, it is such a cliche, but it works here. massive uncharted territory, and that is what institutions are battling with right now. jonathan: europe in uncharted territory, still -50 basis points, the depot rate at the ecb. . lisa:lisa: they are still fighting disinflation we saw for so many years. tom: it is a riveting show today. the different themes we have. thanks al from new jersey for watching. thrilled to see that. he's all over lisa and says, "caddy shack," "animal house," "stripes," your we can viewing. jonathan: lisa is super excited about that you enlist -- that

viewing list. [laughter] tom: come on. it was too much. lisa: i will be full of insight on monday. jonathan: futures up 1.3% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. in germany, lawmakers urging the government to quickly supply ukraine with heavy weapons and other equipment. a motion in parliament thursday night also called for an end to imports on russian oil. chancellor off schulz has faced intense criticism to do more to help ukraine. the bank of japan has sparked a sharp slide in the end by doubling down on bond purchases. the central bank said it would buy an unlimited amount of bonds at fixed rates every business day. that pounded the into hit a two decade low against the dollar. moderna has asked u.s. regulators for emergency use authorization for its covid vaccine for kids ages six months

to under six years. is excess for trial showed two doses generate higher levels of antibodies to the virus. there's is currently no vaccine approved for those under five. mcdonald's posted comparable sales worldwide that were better than expected task order, but seem quarter sales in the u.s. missed estimates. still, gains may be slowing as consumers grapple with soaring inflation. facebook's main social networks added more users than projected in the first quarter, and that could stave off concerns that the company is losing momentum is losing momentum as a new generation flux to younger sites like tiktok. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

>> the boj may be rolling the dice with the universe, but what they may be hoping is that they can get the yen weak quick enough, and release the constraints they have so that they can finally tame domestic core inflation in line with their inflation objectives. jonathan: that hope may well not materialized. dollar-yen, 130 point 86. elsewhere, yields higher by a couple of basis points. collet three on the 10 year.

on the nasdaq, up by 1.38%. a little later we will get numbers from apple and amazon. when you look at the automakers, ford numbers decent as well. tom: we continue that conversation on detroit autos with john lawler, cfo of ford motor, who has tattooed on his brain that you need to be in a ford f1 50 pickup truck to go down to des moines, iowa. can you sell a new $90,000 fully loaded electric pickup truck on the east and west coasts of this nation? john: absolutely. in fact, our early reservations of orders are highly skewed towards california and the east coast, so absolutely. one other thing to point out, we do have high-end pickup trucks and the price range you talk about, but we also have the

starting series at around $40,000. so we have made this vehicle affordable for our commercial customers, as well as those that would want to enter into it at an entry-level series. tom: what is the torque issue? this is a little bit engineering, away from the financial side of ford motor, but people are saying this thing can't pull like the other electric vehicles. help us with that. is the torque there? john: yes, this truck is fully capable. it is built ford tough. it has all the capabilities you need in a pickup truck. it has the horse power, the payload, and the towing. we feel confident this truck will meet our customers' needs and will represent ford tough. lisa: the look now is beset by a

lot of supply chain issues which were definitely weighing on some of the supplies you are getting in terms of some of your automobiles in the first quarter. going forward, you maintain your guidance even though you have seen production fall short of where you were expecting. how can that be? john: if you look at the first quarter, we had incredible demand for our products, all of our new products. the bronco, bronco sport, the new maverick, and our electric vehicles. the incredible f-150 lightning. so we see very strong demand for our products. in the first quarter we were disrupted by modules that were constrained due to the chip crisis. we resolved many of those. we do see the availability of chips improving as we go through the second half, and we are seeing great traction on our ford plus plan, and increasing

and very high demand. we see our volumes of this year versus last year 10% to 15%, and that gives us confidence in reaffirming our guidance for the year. lisa: how much do you expect to raise prices on your automobiles this year, given the fact that demand is still robust and supplies are still constrained? john: we have taken pricing this year, and we are in an inflationary environment. you will probably see if inflation or pressures continue, commodity prices continue to increase. you will see an additional price increase. but the other thing we are doing is we are also focused on cost. in an inflationary environment, you have to manage both ends, so we are laser focused on increasing productivity and driving efficiencies through every line item of our income statement. tom: i don't want to get you in trouble with your general counsel, but i've got to ask you this question. full disclosure, i grew up in a

ford family. you either had a ford or agm, mi5 -- or a gm, and my father had the original bronco. i've had the honor of talking to bill ford. the fact is elon musk thinks he has built tesla tough. how does tesla deal if your ford pickup, with the silverado and the 40 other suvs out there that has a history of tough? john: we've got the iconic brand. we have f-150, the number one selling vehicle in the u.s. we know what customers need. tom: what do the customers tell you -- i don't mean to interrupt. this is too important. what do the customers tell you they want as a purchase differentiator right now over tesla? john: when you look at our product, we continue to make sure that it has the capability.

it is a tool. it has all of the capabilities i talked about earlier. they want that, plus they want the amenities that they get with an electric vehicle that we provide. charging, that is a tool. that is an enhancement for them. they are coming to us and saying they want to capabilities and they want the benefits you get from having an ev powertrain, so customers want that benefit of clean emissions and everything else you get with eeev, along with no compromises to what you would expect from a ford f1 50, and we are delivering that. jonathan: great to catch up. thanks for being with us. john lawler, the ford motor cfo. the problem right now is not with demand so much, it is with supplying these vehicles, getting them made. tom: i think this is an important point. i have been remiss in not bringing this up. i saw some bloomberg data this week -- i think liz ann sonders brought this to me -- the number of days from shanghai, pacific

rim over to america to deliver the stuff from asia is still the same ugly number it was not that long ago. the supply issue has not gone away. jonathan: china the weak spot. the pandemic restrictions and the access to chips still a big factor. lisa: but they can offset that with price increases. to me, one of the most notable things he said was that there still is incredibly strong demand and they will continue to probably raise prices throughout the year because of this. how much can they do this before you get pushback, considering the fact that this is a supply shortage, it is fundamental, and it is across-the-board, and the issues in china are only exacerbated? jonathan: drumroll, get ready for a hard landing. that is the view for deutsche bank. we will catch up with matt luz zetti of deutsche bank.

first quarter gdp and initial jobless claims and a read of pce and personal consumption. mike mckee mckee of bloomberg joining us very shortly. yields higher by three or four basis points. euro-dollar -0.6%, and dollar-yen to the moon. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> live from new york city, here is the price action on the s&p, up more than 1%, on the nasdaq up 1.7. decent numbers from facebook. later on this afternoon we will hear from amazon and apple. economic data crossing the bloomberg which means we catch up with michael mckee. michael: bloomberg's economics call the first quarter a pothole, a rather deep one. the gdp at -1.4%. the forecast consensus was a 1% gain. we grew at a 6.9% rate in the fourth quarter. personal consumption is not bad, 2.7%, but not as high as anticipated, the 3.5% the

economist consensus called for. 2.5% was the fourth quarter. the gdp price index still hits what may be the highest in some time, 8%. the forecast was for 7.2%. the fed will not watch that as much. we get the monthly numbers. for the first quarter inflation is a real issue. one other number now and then i will dive into the gdp figures. jobless claims, 180,000, spot on with forecast. down from 184,000 the prior week. tom: i look at these data and they will be revised. what is the presumed path of revision you would see on a headline negative statistic? michael: what we have seen in the past is something that is a former fed official who said

when a number comes in as a surprise it usually gets revised in the direction of the surprise. tom: a greater negative statistic? michael: we could see a greater negative statistic and that will be a concern for the fed. the reason the bloomberg's economic people call it a pothole is consumer spending held up. i am taking a look at the nonresidential fixed investment, which is basically business spending. that was up 7.3% after a 2.7% rise. consumers were spending. the big issue is what happened with exports and inventories. tom: that is the heat of the matter, the back end of the gdp question, with all of the currency dynamics, when you or

matt luzzetti look at this is a mystery on import and export dynamics, right? michael: is not a mystery because we know at least a rough approximation of the inventory numbers. those will change a little bit but they have improved the reporting time on that. the change in inventories, 34 point $5 billion lower. that subtracts from growth because inventories built so much in the fourth quarter. tom: mike mckee will dive into these numbers and we will dive into a conversation with the most controversial call in market economics. jonathan: let's get to matt luzzetti of deutsche bank. equities still ok. yields fade a bit. that introduces the federal reserve conversation. your reaction to these gdp numbers? matthew: thanks so much for having me. when we look at gdp numbers, it is always a backward looking number. the question is what do we

determine about the future of the economy? we knew there would be a lot of volatility in the trade data. we had a record negative balance yesterday. we do retail sales was revised down. consumer spending growth, spending was quite strong. when we strip it down to private demand growth, it was a strong number. nearly a 4% reduction of net exports. at least over the next two quarters it tells you this economy is growing strong in the labor market data suggests the labor market remains strong. jonathan: you are looking for that hard landing, that recession. the end of 2023, a recession in the united states of america. how is the fed going to internalize incoming economic data and continue to raise interest rates given what you are calling for? matthew: the nature of our call

is one in which there is significant underlying demand in the economy, certainly from the labor market and wage pressures and price pressures that the fed is forced to take more aggressively than what the market has anticipated. we expect 350 basis point moves. more importantly it is about where does the terminal fed funds rate get during the cycle and how high does it need to get to become restrictive enough to get inflation pressures down? our view is as a baseline the fed needs to get above 3.5%. we've been view risks is being skewed to the more aggressive side of that. inflation remains to the are. if we get further supply-side shops it is possible the fed has to be more aggressive. if you look at how far -- we do not see a soft landing of the most likely outcome. lisa: can you give us a game out of where inflation could be at the end of this year that will imply us stiff your nature to

the price increases and a more aggressive approach from the fed? matthew: we are at 4.5% for core pce at the end of this year. that is about 40% above where the fed was. we got a somewhat softer core pce number. we have to dig into the details and see what the rates look like. we do expect we are near the peak or at the peak for core pce and it is a question of where do we go from here, how quickly do you dissipate? for me it is about our baseline in the middle of next year will be core pce around 3.5% and the fed gets the real funds rate into positive territory. if inflation does not dissipate as much as we expect, if it remains 4.5% or above, which is a realistic risk scenario, than the fed will have to be that much more aggressive to get the real fed funds rate into positive territory? lisa: how do you factor in the

idea that we could get a recession in europe, we are seeing the yen depreciates to such a degree that it gives the u.s. less of a competitive edge. the gdp rate was dragged down by trade. how much is this a headwind for the economy that might provide a reprieve for the fed? matthew: is a headwind, but not as much during this cycle as you would a dissipate. it is more about -- as you would anticipate. is mostly about services spending. consumer services spending. it is about getting to the virus trend on services spending. that is a part of the economy that tends to be less sensitive to what we see from the dollar data from global growth data. even though you are seeing downgrades in china, certainly downgrade risks or recession risks in europe, i think the u.s. economy should remain resilient to that.

as long as the labor market remains resilient, consumer spending can chug along. tom: it is unfair to you and michael mckee when a wall of data comes out. i am looking at domestic final sales or what is called real final sales. they plunged in the pandemic, they plunged into thousand eight, but they have rolled over again. is that the negative statistic a recession or is that a knock on effect for the pandemic? matthew: i think what i would be focused on are three components. it is consumer spending, which grew 2.7%, it is growth which michael -- it is cap ex, which michael noted was quite strong -- those are giving us clear evidence of what the underlying demand is in the u.s. economy and those ever made resilient.

those are the areas where we can see weakening. we have already seen weakening in the housing data. mortgage rates have spiked and affordability has come down. we do see good momentum within the consumer and cap ex which will keep the economy resilient in the near term enforces the fed into a near aggressive stance. it is that we expect to eventually lead to a recession by around the end of next year, fully aware timing that exactly is very difficult. the fundamental view is that in order to get inflation to the fed target, the fed will have to be more aggressive. jonathan: matt luzzetti of deutsche bank. looking ahead to next week. thank you for all of your work. the optics going into the fed next week are dreadful. contracting gdp in the first quarter, inflation north of 8%. we have to go deeper on the gdp figure and talk about that contraction. it is a blooming trade deficit,

it is softer inventory growth. if you want to read the underlying story of the economy domestically, the consumer and business demand picture is decent. tom, you talked about real final sales. citigroup had this to say. "q1 real gdp may decline on a quarterly basis due to dragged from traded inventories, however strong domestic demand and strong imports behind the widening trade balance is consistent with an overheating economy delivering inflation above target. they should leave the fed on track to raise policy rates rapidly at the upcoming meeting." tom: my amateur take is andrew hallman horst is correct. i am taking the back end of the equation that net exports is discrete and separate from the debate on may 4. jonathan: easy to layer on the bloom on the back of this number. the earnings of q1 do not speak

to a weak economy. lisa: consumption, fixed income, domestic demand all strong. i keep going back to how long can the u.s. economy remain isolated? it was fascinating what matthew luzzetti was saying that long or possibly longer than in the past. if that is the case that the fed has to go and we see more dollar strength? jonathan: we will talk with mark easel of pimco joining us at about 9:30. do not miss that conversation. futures up 1.35% on the s&p. on the nasdaq up 1.7%. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. lisa: keeping you up with news from around the world. president biden plans to deliver

a marks on support for ukraine as his administration looks to send congress a proposal for humanitarian aid. the proposal would include funds to help remove landmines and combat food insecurity. european commission president is warning companies not to bend to russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles. a dramatic escalation -- that made good on a threat if rubles were not used for payment. now attention turns to help bake consumers germany and -- to how germany and italy respond. in one of its last reports before elon musk takes the company quiet, twitter reported revenues -- the 16% gain in sales was the worst pace of growth in six quarters. meanwhile twitter reported a 60% increase of daily active users to 229 million. caterpillar is warning demand in

china will be weaker than expected. the mining and constructed giants showed sales slumping even as revenue in north america improved. caterpillar expects price increases to more than offset rising manufacturing costs for the year. southwest airlines is joining its rivals in predicting rebound in domestic travel will carry over into the summer. southwest maintained a plan to restore 93% of its pre-pandemic flight capacity. it is forecasting revenue will be as 12% higher than three years ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa matteo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the conflict is dipping towards ukraine. there will be setbacks on both sides. but ukraine now has more tax than russia does in the field -- more tanks than russia does in the field. this is remarkable. tom: tina fordham, a blistering interview yesterday on what is necessary to assist ukraine in the battle with russia. lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we welcome you from our studios in new york. joining us is the mayor -- not only the mayor of the beleaguered capital of ukraine but also acclaimed with his brother, the pair of boxing brothers in the world with many heavyweight champions. this is not boxing, this is not a sport. there is a meanness you fought against in athletics for year. you state the meanness of vladimir putin will go after these iconic symbols of kyiv.

when you expect vladimir putin to go after those acclaimed churches and other sanctuaries? mayor klitschko: thank you for your question. you can compare the situation in ukraine with sports. in sports you have rules. if you break the rules you will be disqualified. right now we see the whole world sees no rules. the economy of our country is destroyed. you speak for all population, not just the whole country, and also a big drama in ukraine. you speak drama for everyone from 40 million people who live in ukraine. a lot of refugees try to find a new home.

people do not have a job. the economy does not work. right now the everyday people, i have told many times, this is war. this is war. it is genocide of the ukrainian population because our city is destroyed. other cities were actually destroyed. lisa: vitali klitschko, the mayor of kyiv with us. we are glad to get a sense of what is going on but also horrified by what you talk about. how much will it cost to rebuild the kyiv of old? mayor klitschko: what we have right now is a huge impact for our economy. a big part of people relocate to

the safe part of the city. we have more than 200 billion -- 200 buildings destroyed. to rebuild the buildings is not so big money, it is route 100 million u.s. dollars. we are losing money in the budget in our city. we guess around 1.5 billion u.s. dollars. also i told you about the numbers right now. we do not know how long the war and how much this will cost in the next couple of weeks, maybe months, maybe years. lisa: this is a delicate question. we hear about 40% of the businesses in kyiv have reopened. how many people do expect, what

proportion of people do you expect not to return because of the war? mayor klitschko: people are afraid and right now people asked me to measure our hometown. we cannot guarantee the safety in the capital. just a week ago russians landed in buildings in our hometown and five civilians are dead. a lot injured. 200 citizens of our hometown are dead and four children. tom: one final question if we could. what weapons do you need right now for the allies and from the united states?

if you are afraid of further missile attacks on symbolic ukraine, what is the material you need now? mayor klitschko: we have to cover the air above our heads. we need heavy weapons. defensive weapons because we defend our country. i'm not an officer of the forces. that is why cannot give you names. we need the weapons because we gave a strong army. that way it will be not enough and we want to say thank you to the united states to support ukraine. it is very important. tom: thank you so much for joining bloomberg. vitali klitschko, the mayor of kyiv.

i want to look back at what we are seeing in the markets. with a move on five basis points on the 10 year, the 30 year bond is making another run at 3%. nevertheless, yields are higher. lisa: i want to dovetail the conversation we started the day with with respect to the yields and that is the japanese yen. how much does a weakening in the yen lead to higher u.s. yields? that is one massive source of demand. that becomes complicated when it is expensive to hedge out the currency volatility and you get a lot of buyers not seeing the risk reward there. this is something you have to keep watching and we see currency disruptions unlike anything we have seen in decades. tom: i would mention we will get a response from the white house on a negative gdp statistic, but i am most certain the response from the former president would be the strong dollar is hurting

american exports. whether that is right or wrong is a debate of our guests. this is a trump currency market and he would not be happy about this advance in the dollar. lisa: we will hear about what the fed has to say. if you peel back the layer's of this gdp report, it was a negative print. underneath was a lot of strength in terms of domestic demand. if you look at the airlines and a lot of the earnings we are seeing with a lot of companies able to pass along price increases, you asked a really important question. at what point does a strong dollar start to eat away at some of that momentum and at what point does that exacerbate the weakness people are expecting to see? tom: eaten away is the way to look at this because it can be very pernicious. we see corn is one example in america, off the radar. $8.22.

a sprightly equity market. apple and amazon with our complete coverage this afternoon. good morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. a soft gdp print behind us, earnings in front of us.

the countdown to the open starts right now. >> -- >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. solid earnings colliding with worry. >> individual company earnings look solid. >> earnings have been quite strong. >> that is not helping share prices. >> the buy side was pessimistic into the earnings season. >> it is not a great backdrop. >> the yields keep going higher. >> things slow down in global economic growth. >> the environment is