>> they hope that they can contain inflation without -- business inflation. >> you are going to have sustained high inflation. you want to tilt towards value. >> the concern for china is the effect of a slowing china on global growth long-term. >> the fear of missing out and tina has been replaced by the fear of inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for joining on radio,

on television. 8:31 friday morning. what will be the state of play? jonathan: 390,000, the estimate on payrolls. the previous, 341,000. unemployment may be at 3.5%. the data pretty decent. the earnings, so far, so good. fears about the future and this federal reserve. whether they have to respond to this fears about the future and the next few months. most people assume they won't through the summer. tom: we are getting ahead of the story. tomorrow, that fed meeting. i'm sorry, jerome powell is looking at a fully employed america, according to too many voices. jonathan: and that is why he's set to hike rates 50 basis points, and then maybe 50 again, and then let's see what happens. things get interesting towards the back have of the year. he believes this economy is resilient. he can hike rates may be 50 basis points tomorrow. does he had that view further down the road, and will he be faced with the ultimate dilemma, growth that is weaker, jobs data going the other way, maybe

unemployment starting to climb, and yet inflation is still problematic? does he have to make a choice between the two? tom: i've gotten some outrageous feedback on the yes--- the mets-yankees thing, killing it through the month of april. but far more, i've got feedback on a 4% 10 year yield spring of next year. is that where bill dudley is? jonathan: he might be there on the fed funds rate. mohamed el-erian is not. he thinks that push comes to shove, they choose to support growth over curtailing inflation. maybe that is the choice they have to make further down the line. on the yield curve, morgan stanley, their view is that the front end, upward pressure from the federal reserve. on the long end, a range bound 10 year perhaps contained by growth risks from abroad. how the long end evolves has been uncertain for me. i was surprised last month and yields started breaking out on the long end on the 10 year, and that steepness returned. tom: we see the steepness, the

real yield with a magical move to positive as well. it just sets up a jumble for may. lisa: at a time when people see the risks of inflation and recession as so massive and looming in the view. the idea of frontloading, i wonder when we get the shock. have we already seen it in terms of some of the equity valuations, or is it yet to be seen? this is one of the biggest this agreements with the likes of morgan stanley and marco glenn affect, who is a consistently bullish voice out of jp morgan. how much can you continue to see disruptions as people look at a fed that does not have the same reaction function to market disequilibrium as it has had in the past? tom: i've got to have you comment on the news overnight on the supreme court, the leaking of this draft document. they did not have the leaking of a supreme court document in your undergraduate work at the congo, did they? lisa: there have been some president -- some precedents in

the past of leaking super important, but this is notable. the idea of the likely overturning of national abortion rights in the united states likely to galvanize midterm elections in ways that perhaps had not been before. from a market perspective, this is going to change the dynamic of the midterms, and that could have real implications that are different than just yesterday. tom: i will get it out on twitter any moment, wennberg opinion moments ago from stephen carter, as we heard from noah feldman about two hours ago. we will get the stephen carter essay out to you as quickly as we can. we've got to go back to the data. i'm going to go to oil. i've got $107 a barrel. many people looking for a lift there. jonathan: $104 on wti. we saw big moves on the u.s. 10 year, through 3% for the first time since 2018. your 10 year yield in the u.s. right now coming in three basis points to 2.957.

starting to see some euros strength come back through euro-dollar. tom: stephen carter inflammatory here. leakers are liars. we will have to get that out here on the issue in america of the moment. right now we stay on plan with economics, finance, and investment, yes, international relations. marvin loh, senior global macro strategist at state street. on shareholder friendly initiatives, which is my core belief that corporations will adapt to what is handed to them, how will corporations adapt to what the fed gives them? marvin: certainly the earnings profile is still supportive, so they do have civility ultimately.

they've restructured their balance sheet to a point where the short-term rate impacts on the balance sheets are limited, so just to say that they are going to stand by the sideline and may not be able to address anything i think ultimately is simplest it. these are corporate boards that have spent a lot of time navigating a lot of the volatility that the world has thrown at them, and certainly their cash flows are still supportive jonathan: margins were pretty good as well, and that is something that i did not anticipate. if you told me this is what we would see with inflation come with labor costs, i would have expect margins to start really getting a bit more messy. you expect any of that in the coming quarters? marvin: i think it is going to be more challenged, absolutely, particularly as we get longer in the tooth with the supply chain issues. we certainly heard from some big companies that started to really feel the pinch even though they managed fairly well over the course of the last year. it definitely is a headwind.

whether it has really evolved to shrink growth is probably something that the market is not pricing, even though we've had as much of a retracement as we have. lisa: has the market really priced in a hawkish fed and possibly three or four consecutive 50 basis point rate hikes? marvin: i guess it depends what market you are talking about. on the fixed income side, we are challenged by this. i do believe that we've got peak hawkish this in a lot of what we are starting to see. on the equity side of things, i think there is still a somewhat rosy outcome in terms of a soft landing or just a minor type of recession that might evolve from this fed activity. lisa: can you elaborate a little bit in terms of where the biggest mispricingforward in cee equity market that are still counting on a soft landing that

perhaps others in rates aren't seeing as much? marvin: certainly the talk within the race world has been the risk of recession. when we are talking about an overheating economy and growth that remains strong, the probabilities remain low from that perspective, but certainly the shape of the curve and just how aggressive the central banks are expected to be over the course of the next year has to increase those recession risks. we are still trading at 18 times multiples. certainly it has come in a lot, but it is closer to averages over the last 10 years, so that risk is not being made in the market at this point. having said that, there certainly is a rotation. the nasdaq is underperforming. that kind of plays into that. but overall valuations, while better, are still relatively high if you have a fairly concerning growth outlook in your cards. jonathan: what is the required dynamic for the fed put to come out of retirement, in your

opinion? marvin: i think we have to get through the next few months and start to see this inflation discussion start to moderate before we can even talk about fed puts. certainly liquidity within the treasury market is always an issue. that will bleed into much more volatility in the equity market. but we are not there yet, and normally we would expect that somewhere around 20% we would be there. jonathan: marvin loh of state street, thank you read ahead of the federal reserve tomorrow, payrolls friday, and a difficult period for markets over the last three months, the fed put is firmly in retirement given where inflation is currently. lisa: it is a question i have in terms of how much they want to actually ignite some more volatility. if we do not get more volatility than what we have seen, is that a policy failure? what is their transmission mechanism of tightening monetary conditions -- financial conditions, i should say?

i wonder if they are pleased with some of the selloffs they have seen rather than disturbed or looking to come in and stop it. jonathan: estee lauder falling in the premarket by quite a bit. they've had to cut their outlook, and they have at your be did it to every thing we have been talking about. store closure, supply chain disruptions in china, higher costs in europe due to russia's invasion in ukraine. you just fold in the dynamics of the moment into the earnings story, and there is a stock that is really struggling. tom: this goes to what you have beat me up about which is to say there's been some high flyers that have done ok. they are down, but there's a lot of people who have been absolutely hammered within this. as mr. buffett once said, the water goes out and you see who's got a swimsuit on. jonathan: destocked down by about 9%. lisa: which is interesting also because how does it fit into the luxury complex. it is a make and facial care goods company. how much does that speak to the narrative where we see luxury producers really be the outliers for so long?

is that changing? are people pushing back on some of those discretionary expenditures? jonathan: a $93 million market cap. you forget that. lisa: have you been to sephora? jonathan: no, tom is big on that, that particular store. tom: it is a conduit. the new thing is vintage clothing. vintage clothing, i expect to see whoever. and i mention here, as we were talking about the mets, equal opportunity. doug kass emails in from florida, says the yankees talk is just stellar. jonathan: i will bring the yankees talk back. tom: then there is the known world saying tom, shut up about the red sox. jonathan: i know. we could spend a lot of time talking about that. yields on the 10 year, 2.95%. futures recovering just a little bit in the last couple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika

gupta. there's a report that the u.s. supreme court is poised to overturn the landmark roe v. wade decision protecting the constitutional right to abortion , and that pumped a demonstrators to head to the court monday night. let go -- that prompted demonstrators to head to the court monday night. the opinion was said to have been written by justice samuel alito. the court is scheduled to rule in the case by july. in hong kong the economy shrank more than expect it last quarter. roast domestic product fell 4% in the january to march period from a year earlier. local restrictions to curb covid it economic activity, plus china's own omicron outbreak disrupted trade. british prime minister boris johnson will evoke his country's wartime history today when he delivers a virtual address to ukraine's parliament. johnson will echo the words of winston churchill, saying, "this is ukraine's finest hour." johnson's government has announced a new military aid

package for the ukrainians. shares of western digital jumped for the opening bell. eliot investment management is urging the company to conduct a full strategic review and separate its flash business. elliott managers have about a $1 billion investment in western digital. pfizer has kept its existing outlook for sales of its covid vaccine and treatment unchanged, disappointing investors who look for the products to drive growth through mid april. pfizer says it has clinched $2 billion in 2020 two contracts for the vaccine and $22 billion for its covid pill. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> at some point there also has to be a renewed effort at the negotiating table to try to achieve a negotiated resolution to this. again, it is not impossible that this could continue for a very long time if in fact there is not a negotiated resolution. so i think we need to keep that in mind here as well. jonathan: general david per petraeus -- general david petraeus, the former cia director. futures just about unchanged on the s&p, and on the nasdaq 100, positive 0.1 percent. yields lower by a couple of basis points, 2.95 75%, after

having a look at 3% in the last day or so. tom: i want to bring up a banner on this story unfolding across america from the political article -- the politico article on roe v. wade. 80 riffing group of legal scholars, we mentioned noah feldman earlier come about on "bloomberg surveillance," who want to give you a first look at stephen carter of io university, who does not talk about roe v. wade. he does not talk about left and right. he simply says it is about the leaker, and he is brutal in talking about the leaker this morning. there it is. "a lie in a good cause can be excused, but a culture of leaking as washington has become is no better than a culture of lying. none of the clerks it was my privilege to know so long ago at the supreme court would have dreamed of committing such an offense."

right now on the international moment in ukraine, alina pol yakova joins us, ceo at the center for european policy analysis. 40 years ago, the chef yield went down. it seems like ukraine can do the big, dramatic event like the muskva and the rest of it. how are they doing with conventional warfare and particularly establishing a no-fly zone? alina: ukraine is certainly outperforming all expectations, just as the russian military has been underperforming all expectations. but right now, ukraine has very little control of its airspace, and that has been the case from the beginning of this whole thing. what they really need now is the ability to be able to prevent the missile attacks, the bombs that have been decimating ukrainian cities for months. in terms of their on the ground military operations with massive

weapons supplies now coming from the west, especially from the u.s., they are doing incredibly well slowing down the russian offensive in the east. lisa: what is the truth in terms of how poorly russia is doing? there are some reports about morale being a real issue, about there being a fear and unwillingness to experience the casualties the russian troops have been experiencing. how much is that the actuality versus a more tense battle with more progress in the donbass region than the people let on? alina: the russian military has an incredible ability to adapt. we have seen this for years with syria, many years ago in georgia. so they tried this very aggressive approach to take over the capital of kyiv. that failed and they have learned from that. now they have a much better understanding of the ukrainian capabilities, and they are adapting. many of the russian generals, a shocking number, have been killed during this war.

a huge number that we don't see in modern warfare anymore. but they are adapting. but certainly if you are a ukrainian defending your home, your family, you are going to fight for that until the last breath, and the russian soldiers don't really know what they are fighting for, except that they are there and they have been given orders, so morale has been a huge issue in terms of getting done what they want to get done militarily. lisa: what has been the most accurate read you have gotten on the casualty numbers out of russia? alina: it is so hard to tell because everything the russian government puts out there is going to be much lower than the reality. we are assuming that tens of thousands of russian soldiers have either been killed or injured beyond their ability to fight. some estimates suggest it could be up to 60,000 at this point. but it is really hard to know because of course, the russian government, the estimates there are somewhere around 1500 still, so that gap is huge. i'm guessing the truth is

somewhere in between, but certainly losses have been high. tom: with all your skill and scholarship, are the russians trapped in ukraine? alina: they are certainly not going to pull back. mr. putin's entire regime, his ability to stay in power, his survival, really, depends on a win in ukraine. he knows that, and he is not going to pull back. so i think the war will last, unfortunately, much longer than i think we originally anticipated. but there's no backing down for putin. he knows if he loses and he is seen as a loser in russia, that is really the end of him and the end of his regime, and potentially the end of his life because that is how brutal russian politics are these days. jonathan: what do you know about his health? there have been so many reports over that on the last couple of days. how on earth do we get a read on that? alina: this is always the big question with dictators, always speculating about their health.

we know that mr. boudin and covid became quite isolated, very paranoid. he does not feel comfortable with people around him. people have to quarantine before they are allowed to see him. so we know that he is very concerned, just based on how we see him in public, and there have been many reports that he has a crew of physicians that travel around with him everywhere. there's even a joke in russia that says we know putin is coming to a meeting because the amulets is arrived first. we don't know, but certainly he is a man now approaching 70. life expectancy for men his age is much lower in russia. so it is hard to know what his health actually is, but speculation has certainly accelerated. jonathan: thank you for your time and perspective this morning. tom, and many ways, it has gone much longer than people anticipated because a lot of people doubted how long the ukrainians could resist some of this pressure from the russians, and that was perhaps the early

surprise of this initial conflict. tom: we are weaned in school academics in america of the battle of bull run in the civil war, where people drove out on carriage and horseback and took a picnic to watch the first battle of the american civil war thinking it would be over in six weeks. i can report it wasn't. jonathan: this one already going on longer than some people anticipated. tom: there's no question about that. but i don't have any wisdom here at all other than what we do is listen to experts and international rate -- experts in international relations, and importantly, the military experts. i'm chilled by how general mark kimmitt was dead on before this war started. jonathan: crude threatening to get through on hundred $50, now back to $104 on dub uti. -- on wti. tom: where is it without the china lockdown? jonathan: morgan stanley still

thinks $130. then you got ed morse of citi, who seems to be taking the other side of that. lisa: definitely seemed to be saying we could potentially be heading lower. jonathan: you took an extra day to recover, didn't you? tom: i skipped a day to recover from the red sox. jonathan: are you sure about that? ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures unchanged on the s&p and on the nasdaq. here's a call from oppenheimer. morgan stanley and jp morgan upgraded. even if the economy were to into recession, we believe the banking industry would handle it better than any recession in history. we are not economists, but this is unlikely to go straight from labor shortages to recession given the large pullback in the stocks and medullary -- and moderately higher estimates. the pe multiple is down to 52%. tom: they are very constructive on the markets. they have participated in this bull market. but again, people adapt. companies adapt. central banks adapt. jonathan: they are looking for

30% upside from here. the market has now picked up on high yields translating is better for bank stocks. that has just not been the story over the last few months. year-to-date, we have seen this massive move in yields, and banks have not participated. tom: slotted in is a two hour conversation we can have this morning with kenneth rogoff, professor of economics at harvard, the former imf chief economist, but far more than that, truly one of our thinkers of this moment we are in. i mentioned to get it open off at the -- two git -- to gita gopinath at the imf a couple of weeks ago. i want to go to a quote from 20 years ago. i room ember this paper, the carnegie mellon freshwater school, the once dominant i slm framework for macroeconomic analysis has been sharply criticized.

nevertheless, most undergraduate macroeconomics textbooks continue to feature i slm models. take us through john hicks, 1939, through what you and i were weaned on to where we are now. does any central bank have a conventional theory in 2022? kenneth: well, they still teach is-lm, but central banks, of course, were not expect in this inflation. they had not seen inflation for a long time. they did not know what what's because it. they had some thoughts. i think if you are honest about the academic literature, there was tremendous uncertainty about the phillips curve, about the long run neutral rate of interest, so there's just massive uncertainty, and then you get hit by the pandemic, and now the war in ukraine and the uncertainty is bigger than ever. tom: what is so important here,

and i speak of project syndicate, i can't speak enough as a font of wisdom and by kenneth rogoff and many others, but you write in your essay on this synchronized global economy . how synchronized are we? how synchronized is america with china and with europe? kenneth: well, i think the risk of having a perfect storm where europe is in recession because of the war, china is in recession because of a failed covid lockdown policy, and the united states because the fed tightens too much, too fast, or however we judge it in response to inflation, those all feed on each other. if china has a supply recession, which is really what we are talking about, that is going to feed inflation. it is going to hurt demand in europe. obviously if the united states

goes into recession, it hits financial market's all the world. i would say the risks have risen probably that this might happen. things could work out well. there's a lot of uncertainty. but it is not hard to see all of these risks. in china, it is hard to see what is going on. but i feel they might already be bordering on recession. lisa: do you think that already, the risk has gotten too much for the fed, moving too far, too fast, at a time when a significant proportion of those on wall street think it is the opposite, that perhaps they are poised to be overly dovish and not respond enough to inflation that surprises again and again to the upside? kenneth: i don't think we will know for a while what they are going to do because they can raise interest rates a lot before they raise them too much. lisa: how much? kenneth: well, i think the idea that just 3% would be enough is really unlikely.

i think they are going to have to raise interest rates to 4% or 5% to bring inflation down to 2.5% or 3%. and i don't know if that is something they are going to decide to do. i am not even saying that is something they should do. we really have to see what is going on, how deep the recession is. they have dug a hole, or to be precise, the huge stimulus and a lot of the pressures on the fed and uncertainty from academics and research has dug a hole, and it is not easy to get out of. there is no pretty picture here. lisa: let's sit on that, that in order to get down to a 2.5% inflation rate, they would have to raise rates for percent or 5%. you don't know whether they should do that. when will we know whether they should be opting for getting back down to that kind of target at some point in the next few years? kenneth:kenneth: well, it depends on what is going on,

what the costs are. they could get lucky and some of the inflation turns out to be transitory enough so that they get a gentle landing. it is not impossible. but there are clearly a lot of things that could still go wrong . the escalation in europe, china getting worse, irrational covid lockdowns. there's a lot of uncertainties. i'm not going to say i know exact what needs to be done, but it is clear that things are way out of control. tom: you are part of our global interior confidence in the dollar. from mondo fleming to jacob frankel to your work and the rest, we come to a new point. is the dollar a study of value now, or is it secondary to what used to be? kenneth: i think the dollar is

more powerful than it ever was, and yes, central bank reserves have been diversified a bit, although a lot of the currencies are pegging against the dollar. the dollar is dominant in trade. it is dominant in financial markets. it is dominant in all kinds of transactions. it is surprising. think it is by many measures more dominant than it was in the 1950's. tom: in the 1950's, and let me digress, this is so important in germany right now, is germany held back by a memory of economics? is germany reticent with a war in ukraine from another time and place? is the dollar from another time and place? kenneth: i'm not quite sure what you are asking. are you asking is germany not moving more aggressively in

ukraine because it is concerned about deficits? i don't think so. i think it is much more the concern about escalation, how much do you push putin to push them over a cliff. i thing that is a very tough call, and the germans don't see at the same way that the american administration does. tom: i'm sorry, my question was not all that clear. i fail when the red sox are in last place, so i am failing right now. on germany and the euro, the challenge for christine lagarde given what i'm going to call the german reticence, how difficult a moment is this for the politician guard? -- politician lagarde? kenneth: i think the toughest spot is that they have connected politically raising interest rates, which they need to do, and scaling back quantity to be using, which is a different animal in europe. it is really a subsidy from north to south. if they start scaling back on a date of easing given all of the fragility's, we could see spikes

in interest rates in portugal and spain. so they need to raise interest rates, but they have really been painted into a corner by becoming the de facto euro treasury, so it is a difficult political position. i think that is the most difficult part, not so much navigating deficits. jonathan: wonderful depressive -- to catch up with you. when i anchor with you every day, i often learn to translate what you actually mean. tom: you know, when you are talking to a force like rogoff, that is what happens. what he said about the dollar possibly stronger and more dominant than the 1950's, that is a minority opinion. jonathan: right now it is the story of the last month, not just the break out in bond yields, the breakdown in the equity market, but the fact that we got euro-dollar down near 1.04, cable breaking down. it has been the story of the

last month for me. tom: it is a lot. it goes back to deutsche bank has done, with matt was eddie leading off our coverage tomorrow, i believe. it is an actual recession call. jonathan: futures up about 0.1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, but sadly unchanged. we will catch up with jim be uncle -- with jim bianco. mindy xu of credits we. tom: before you go, i'm getting hammered out of the twitter zeitgeist that there's way too much baseball talk. we've got to go to chelsea. i guess they are in the final things between the los angeles dodgers -- jonathan: how do you pronounce your second name, is it boldly? in this bid for chelsea? tom: the guy owns the los angeles dodgers. jonathan: the preferred bid over

chelsea. i've seen numbers over $5 billion. i'm trying to nail that down. interesting because they were looking for $3 billion sterling, and at the time i thought we would have a bit of a fire sale. tom: what is the debate here? jonathan: the debate is whether he will keep the club for 10 years without selling it, and i believe he's committed to doing that. tom: because there's mr. radcliffe or sir radcliffe. jonathan: there's question about whether he's a fit and proper owner, all of those things. tom: they want to make chelsea like real madrid. jonathan: running a premier league club is really hard. tom: look at tottenham. jonathan: precisely. you have to get into the top four to get into the champions league. the fans are very demanding after roman abramovich. so it is very difficult. tom: we have a countdown clock for the fed. should we have a countdown clock for the last time the tots won an award? jonathan: i think it goes back

decades. would you like a countdown clock for tots-liverpool this weekend? tom: saturday, the late show. jonathan: are you coming over? they are probably sold out -- we will probably sort it out later. are we allowed to talk to each other today? ok, i will work it out. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. there is a report that the u.s. supreme court is on the verge of overturning the roe v. wade ruling that legalized abortion. that punted protesters to turn out that -- that prompted protesters to turn out outside the court overnight. according to the publication, "roe was egregiously wrong for the start." if the court does overturn roe, it could reshape the battle for congress this fall. -- plans to sell off some of its

government bond holdings. that would take the u.k. central bank into uncharted territory. none of its major economy peers have sold bonds accumulated under quantitative easing since 2008. a group of u.s. senators wants to loosen google's grip on the digital ad market. bloomberg has learned they plan to introduce legislation that would force google to sell off parts of its lucrative advertising technology business. the measure could also have implications for amazon and facebook parent meta platforms. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think as oil prices move up, the cost of that for the

consumer becomes higher and higher, and that will create, i think you good have a recession. i think right now we are probably growing at 1% to 2%. but if things slow down, the fed is raising rates, oil is going up, we will see where things are in three to six months. tom: -- tom: marc lasry there, avenue capita group chief executive officer. that is with david rubenstein, "bloomberg wealth." david rubenstein joins us this morning. this is not all about -- not all that well known, that basketball scholarship you got to duke university. david: i want to do going a scholarship, but it was not a basketball scholarship. tom: we are making news this morning. mr. lasry, there are so many

people successful in business who do the sports thing, but it has really worked out for him with his small team in milwaukee. how does he link in lessons from basketball into the investing world? david: mar -- marc lasry is a basketball players and he had the chance to buy the milwaukee bucks at what was expensive at the time, but now seems very cheap. it was about $150 million. today these teams are worth about $2 billion. he's very passionate about his team, and they won the nba champ in should last year -- nba championship last year. tom: what does he say about distressed debt? david: he has been a big distressed debt investor for decades, but in the last couple of years he's really gotten out of that business because there has not been that much distressed debt.

he's been going into the lending business a bit. he's hoping that there will be more distressed debt opportunities as interest rates go up and some companies aren't able to do what they thought they were going to do. lisa: these two ideas dovetail together, owning a sports team and owning alternative assets because of the incredible demand and how high valuations have gone. how much is that a common discussion among owners of alternative investment firms, that sports really is a frontier that has not been fully tapped? david: it does seem if you own an alternative investment firm, you are not really feeling complete unless you also own a basket baltimore a sports franchise. so many of my friends seem to own these teams and they seem to be doing quite well because when steve ballmer came in and paid $2 billion for the li clippers, everybody's prices went up, and now we are reading about football teams in london may be going for $4 billion, nfl teams going for $5 billion, so there seems to be no limit to how much you can price these teams that. so if you feel -- so you kind of

feel left out if you don't own a sports team anymore. lisa: is this a vanity project versus an investment? there has been so much overvaluation in many parts of the market. david: no one really has lost money buying sports teams in recent decades. i think it is very rare to find someone who has lost money buying a sports team. you make your money to play selling, not on a day-to-day cash flow unless you are in the nfl or something like that. most people are still focused on the alternative investment world as a way to consistently make money. sports teams have other advantages, but they are not really being bought by people principally to make money. i think they want to have some enjoyment out of owning it. tom: you are a student of this. the wrap is the rich guys are using the public system, the public tax dollars in such, and indeed, long depreciation of different assets within a sports complex, to get this done.

is the law were rigged so that rich guys can own the chicago white sox or whatever the team? david: the sports world probably plays to that, but on the other hand, voters can vote these -- tom: we just saw this in buffalo, the criticism over the buffalo bills. david: but there are not people rioting in the streets against these sports deals, so they probably do favor the owners, but the voters can vote the officials out who support these deals, and we don't see that happening. so there is criticism that might be justified, but on the other hand, i think the general public once to see the sports teams be as good as they can. tom: let me get back to mr. lasry. what did you learn about what he has learned from the global financial crisis, a modern pandemic, and now this morning ukraine? david: the lesson is this is not good for the economy. this is not good for people who want to see investment go up.

he believes we could be in a recession. we are not in one now. the combination of high energy prices, war in ukraine, and higher interest rates is not a good prescription for steady investment pace. i think a lot of people who are distressed debt investors are now licking their chops, saying in the next year or so, there's going to be good opportunities. lisa: how are they creating the liquidity ahead of that? do they have large piles of cash on hand in case there is a severe downturn? david: there's a lot of cash on the sidelines. people are waiting to see what the opportunities are. i do think people are looking for distressed opportunities and the markets are choppy. it is rare to have interest rates go up on a consistent basis without having some economic slowdown. we have seen that from 1960 on, every time the federal reserve raises interest rates in a consistent way, it does reduce inflation. it just takes a while. tom: thank you so much for

joining today. the full interview, look for that on "bloomberg wealth" tonight at 9:00 p.m. and i believe they touch on a basket vaulting that has won four in a row, including crushing the boston celtics as they did. i got to go back to what matters here. we are up six points on futures, dow up 33, which is the biggest response of the day, abramowicz on mets baseball. lisa: which tells you everything, other than that the mets managed to get a no-hitter. i think the uncertainty is going to be the biggest theme for the next couple of weeks. but what does the fed do with that? how do they position in a way that allows the market to hold onto positioning, the louse for -- that allows for and credit will he hawkish fed while not necessarily indicating a surprise, even some sort of forward-looking projection?

tom: and the position of the surprise this morning with kenneth rogoff saying the dollar is ever stronger, ever dominant, including going back to the 1950's and 1960's. lisa: i would agree this is probably the most important story of the past couple of weeks because the stronger the dollar gets, that is a massive defective tightening globally. so at what point does something break? has something already broken? at what point does it become a concern for the fed and beyond? tom: there we go, some of that abramowicz gloom that has not touched the mets yet. lisa: it has touch to them, just not this year. tom: dollar not giving us strength this morning, but really worth watching through to tomorrow and our fed coverage. we will have a very special show late out, including with the former vice chairman alan blinder, scheduled to be with us as well. then of course, we go on to the jobs report on friday. that survey number is stunning, 3.5% is the survey statistic for

the unemployment rate of america. on radio and television at 12:00 noon, one of my favorite people, jane harman of wilson center. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathon: cliff in new york city this morning. good morning. if a couple of days ahead of us market. big equity futures positive up .2%. announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathon: live from new york city, we begin with a big issue. bond yields up 3%. >> you will see about 3.5%. >> not to begin slowing growth and start raising concerns about recession. >> where at the beginning of rate hikes. >> the market is pricing 200 basis points over the next four meetings. >> it looks like it is