evacuations to continue from the besieged steel plant and variable. -- in mariupol. pope francis is pushing for a meeting with putin to broker an end to the war in ukraine. the diplomatic overtures came as defenders of the steel plant said russian forces were storming the facility. the supreme court has confirmed the authenticity of the draft leak of the 10th of february, chief justice roberts said he ordered an investigation into what he called an egregious breach of trust. the draft of an opinion that would throughout the landmark roe v. wade abortion draft ruling has a student for a half-century. it was criticized by president biden and by democrats today. >> if this report is accurate, the supreme court is poised to inflict the greatest restriction

of rights in the past 50 years. not just on women, but on all americans. under this decision, our children will have less rights than their parents. mark: the draft was published by the news outlet politico late monday. hong kong is speeding up its reopening plans as covid cases dropped. easing mask wearing rules and allowing more of leisure venues to open. this second phase of easing was originally intended for late may, but average daily infections have dropped to 290 after peaking at over 15,000 in a wave that became the deadliest outbreak in the world earlier this year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg.

>> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> let us dive right into the market action we are seeing. a lot of green on the screen ahead of the big meeting tomorrow, this is interesting. go back historically even this last year, the day before, even two days before, a risk off kind of day. that is not the case in today's market. you are seeing outperformance, little bit of green. 8/10 of 1% on the s&p 500, yields lower by four basis points and weighing on the dollar. jon: while we have seen the headline colors green, how healthy is the consumer going to be? we are coming off of a big lift and travel activity, we saw that reflected in numbers from expedia.

but both shares are taking a hit. some analysts concerned about the road ahead for the businesses, we are just getting started with travel numbers, awaiting booking holdings this week. we will see with the outlooks mean, especially as we waited decision from the fed. kriti: investors awaiting the decision to come out tomorrow. just yesterday at the conference, we caught up with ceo david hunt and asked him the current state of global monetary policy. david: in china, we have slowing growth and a central bank that is easing. in japan, no inflation. we have a central bank that would like to have inflation. in europe, we have slowing growth. i would say a couple sanctions away from tipping into a recession. the ecb also dealing with high inflation. here in the u.s., we have a robust economy. have high inflation and a fed that said they are going to be very aggressive. for the last 10 years, we have all been largely in sync.

for the first time, there is huge regional differences in the economic outlook. kriti: many economists expecting a 50 basis point hike from the fed. for conversation on rates and the fred, that is bring in bloomberg's chief correspondent and bloomberg's economic chief u.s. economist, really the dream team to start of the conversation. i want to talk about what is being priced in the market. 50 basis points on the headline level, does that take into account what we hear on the balance sheet? >> well, i think it does. people think the fed is going to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind. so we've got about 250 basis points at highest priced into the end of the year. i am sure anna has things to say about this, she has written a lot. people feel like if they do the balance sheet, that adds more to what you see and rate pricing. it is a double effect, yes. jon: you literally put a

headline report saying can powell get any more hawkish, what are wildcards to watch for? >> we saw a very hot jobs opening" report this morning. it says there is 1.9 job openings for every unemployed american. powell has said the labor market is too hot, so this number, 1.9 jobs opening for american, it is superhot. combined with last friday's employment cost data, which is showing wages running at a gross rate of 5%, that increased the urgency for the fed to act more aggressively. i think what is important to watch is whether powell would open the door or leave the door open for a 75 basis point hike in the future, when he has asked that question tomorrow. jon: let's stick with that. -- kriti: let's stick with that.

that is something we have only heard in the markets and consistently, the market has been leading the fed. how much more hawkish can the market get in for the fed to follow? anna: so, bloomberg economics has developed an alternative to taylor rule, it is an estimate of defense reaction function. based on the current market consensus of inflation rates and employment rates, it is saying the fed should be hiking all the way to about 3.2% at the end of the year. so yes, there is room for the fed to quicken the speed of hiking. jon: before we wrap, liz, i want to bring it back to you. you are one of the authors of an excellent, bigger picture global peace. you are in canada, we are watching rates rise as well. how ready the global markets are for this qt quantitative tightening, what were some of your takeaways as he looked around the world? liz: that was very important. investors are saying this time

around, we have not just the fed unwinding the balance sheet and raising rates, we have several other major central banks doing the same. people think, we might have seen a lot in the market, but there is more pain to be had in assets because of this global drain of liquidity. so, credit spreads widely more equity taking good on, more global equity. i think it is very important to look at not just the fed alone, like the speaker before we started. i heard him talking about we have some central bank easing, but we do have a lot better tightening. it is totally a global story this time around. jon: no doubt. appreciate your time. liz mccormick and anna wong, some great insight. we think both of you. for more insight as we look ahead to tomorrow's fed decision, let us bring in katie nixon. wealth management cio at northern trust, it is nice to have you with us.

the other piece of context with all of this conversation around central policy is the fact the s&p is down in the neighborhood of 12% this year. the nasdaq is on the doorstep of being down 20% for the year overall. how do you balance the expectation of rising rates and economic impact, versus the fact we have seen quite a selloff so far? katie: would you could say is a lot of the economic impact associated with rising rates has been priced into risk asset markets. the downtrend we have seen in broad u.s. industries has been coupled with high volatility. ateliers view -- that tells you this environment is a front burner issue for investors and inflected in the stock prices. perhaps the market has overdone it a little bit in terms of the true economic impact of higher rates, given the fact -- and you reported on the jobs number, the number of quits and job openings -- this economy can handle rising rates right now. there is a lot of heat in the

labor market that can certainly absorb a fed rate of 2%. kriti: you said perhaps the market has overdone it a little bit. let us talk about the bear market. if you look at valuations, especially the nasdaq 100, they go all the way back to pre-pandemic levels. which on the surface suggests they are steam left the market. but you go back to 2019, 20 20, a lot of the conversation was the rally had gone too far. how do you square the two? katie: valuations matter for long-term investors, for sure. there are poor wasted time to market short-term. we do not focus too much on valuations of the near term indicator, but that is important input to long-term capital assumption process. investors with rising rates are far less forgiving to companies and stock that do not have earnings, do not have cash flow. you have seen investor preference really change. the reason it changed, there is

an opportunity cost right now. you can get decent returns and high-quality fixed income. that was not the case a couple years ago, even last year. now, bonds are giving risk assets a run for their money in terms of return potential. jon: as we possibly lean on the u.s. fed for guidance on how healthy the u.s. consumer is, because we have been knee-deep in earnings season, we had an opportunity to hear from a lot of companies on what trends they are seeing with their consumers. have you been able to have some significant takeaways listening to some of the earnings calls so far? katie: i think it has been really interesting. more to come on the earnings season, we will hear more and more about the consumer. a couple of trends and themes i take away, one is we are seeing the shift away from goods and services, we saw that from amazon. people want to get out of their houses, they want to travel, go on vacation, go to restaurants. the shift from goods to services is happening. interestingly enough, in terms

of strength of the consumer, that strength may be waiting at the lower end consumer. we heard that from mcdonald's last week, they received some signs the lower consumer was not able to handle higher prices. trading down in ticket price. it will be interesting to see going forward how the strength of the consumer ebbs and flows through this year. frankly, we think the consumer is entering this period very strong, but ultimately that growth will stroll -- slow and overall economic growth will slow as we end of the year. kriti: katie nixon, thank you for your time and insight. coming up, a potentially historic moment. abortion rights emerged as an issue that could reshape the battle between democrats and republicans for control of congress. more on that next, this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is bloomberg markets, i am kriti gupta with jon erlichman. president biden is urging the election of war -- more lawmakers that support a brochure rights -- abortion rights. joining us is our washington correspondent. that is get right down to it. what is the likelihood of roe v. wade getting overturned? annmarie: if you look at the opinion by the opinion by dislike draft, it does look like there is potential.

we already heard from the supreme court, the authenticity of this draft, yes, it is authentic. but it does not mean it is the final opinion. should note, this leaked draft is from february. these court documents are fluid, obviously the opinion could have changed slightly. but there is this concern amongst the democratic party and the president himself that this could potentially happen. should also note that justice roberts has said it is an egregious act, it goes against the institution of the supreme court and the ability for individuals to do their work. they are going to be going after the week, -- leak, which has sent drama throughout every institution here in washington, d.c. this morning. jon: we just got through a whole segment prepared for what the fed is going to do in its fight against inflation. we anticipated that would be one of the key talking points moving into the midterm elections in

november. but as you are alluding to earlier, the idea of abortion is now taking a front seat in front of something like inflation will be important to watch on the election campaign trails. annmarie: absolutely. women's reproductive rights is going to be a massive voting issue, the democratic party as well as the right come out and galvanize. very much so a partisan issue around the country, you are likely going to see democrats really want to target women. while inflation is going to be a key voting issue when it comes to higher grocery bills for individuals, higher gas bills, higher rent, now, there is a serious likelihood abortion and women's rights to choose, which has been the law of the land since 1973, is going to eclipse consumer prices rising over the past couple months. jon: thank you very much for your reporting, we will continue

to watch headlines coming out of washington. coming up, higher food prices are benefiting more than farmers. as you can see from the stock, earnings have been on quite a roll. we will get more on that stock story next, this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: this is bloomberg markets, i am jon erlichman with kriti gupta. time for the stock of the hour, the biggest fertilizer company reporting earnings and saying supply disruptions that have thrown their market into chaos will likely extend beyond 2022. jeff morgan is joining us with more details. obviously, a lot of people have been asking this question of how long the issues are going to last. this company is in a good position. jeff: yes, and they just upgraded the forecast as a result of the prices. nutrien has been one of the best

performing stocks since the russian invasion of ukraine started on february 24. this stock is one of the top 10 performers. also in the top 10 list, the biggest competitor, mosaic. paul -- -- paudash, the competitors being nutrien and mosaic have benefited. the stock is up very sharply since the war in ukraine. it is one of the best performing stocks in toronto today. it is enjoying -- briefly, it was enjoying its best day in two years. the prices for nutrien, fertilizer ahead of the planting season, are causing this company to massively increase its forecast for the year. jon: quickly, just in terms of how this might rewrite the rules of global trade, the company is getting questions around that because of how long it might

take to resolve. geoffrey: there is more production that it could increase, so the big question of how long the trade disruption last with the russian invasion of ukraine, that will affect whether or not it does increase outputs. there are other mosaic -- there are other production that could be brought on. i think the market is still waiting to see how long the disruptions will be in place for. kriti: geoffrey morgan joined us, thank you for the roundup. we will head over to the global conference, where romaine bostick is standing by with what to expect next hour. romaine: we are live at the beverly hilton in los angeles, we are going to broadcasting live. this place is crawling with debt investors, private credit investors.

we will kick off the show talking equities. we've got the head of public equity at goldman sachs asset management, katie cox will join us in a minute. we will talk over at carlisle, been real estate. you know him you love him, he has a lot of investments during the pandemic. some distributed wealth, some did not. he will stop by and give us his perspective. we have got a lot to cover. we are still going to talk credit, do not worry. then over at ares capital, there are so many people, it is hard to keep up. this is been a great show so far, the work folks have done out here to put this on, try to get this back to normal after the pandemic disruptions, a pretty good crowd. everyone is excited. fighting all of the concerns, everyone is still opportunistic. jon: yesterday, we heard from

ken griffin as he was addressing some of the questions on the issue of inflation. are you getting a sense on what they think the road ahead is going to look like when it comes to battling higher prices? romaine: everyone seems to have the same opinion, inflation is going to run well above recent historical averages and we will have to get used to it. that does not mean we will be at a .5%, but a baseline of 3% to 5%. a lot of the folks are in credit and loans. for a lot of them, the higher inflationary environment creates an opportunity for quite a few of them. maybe not necessarily straight equity investors, but overall, the think we will avoid a recession, at least here in the u.s. despite inflationary pressures and whatever the fed has in store as they meet in washington. jon: great perspective, we look forward to your coverage.

romaine bostick joining us, obviously everybody is turned to get ahead of what we will have in focus tomorrow with the fed conversation. in terms of the market today, it has been a day where investors have shown a willingness to buy. the question becomes how significant or how much conviction is there with this buying after what went on yesterday. kriti: some historical context, traditionally in the last year when we were expecting hawkish commentary from the meetings, you've seen the market price in. in other words, risk off has been the name of the day. this outperformance in the s&p 500 in terms of tech, is not really dragging the index down. it is an interesting dynamic. it really speaks to the optimism in the market right now. jon: no doubt. i enjoyed what katie nixon said, you have to look at some of the earnings reports to see how

individual companies like mcdonald's are preparing for what consumers are going to have in their wallets going forward. we will keep the earnings train going as we get more context from other companies, we talked earlier about travel and hotel players that reported today, we have more companies to report this week. kriti: what caught my eye is what romaine said. these are some of the biggest players in the market, they say they are not worried about a reception -- recession. despite being a very different look at dynamic. we will dig in with all of that. stick with us, bloomberg markets is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: it is 11:00 a.m. in los angeles, we are live from the global conference for special edition of bloomberg markets, but close. some of the best and brightest minds are out here walking around. we have got a huge show coming up here today. just a lot of really smart folks giving us their perspective. also, the idea of refined opportunity, we will hear from katie koch after we get to our banter. the infrastructure head over at carlisle will be joining us, and you know barry sternlicht, always has a great opinion, we will get his thoughts on the real estate market and more. taylor: as you are keeping your eyes on the biggest and brightest minds, katie and i are focused on the markets. i wanted to focus on a few things we are watching, equities, little bit of green on the screen. we have got