tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 8, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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situation with covid lockdowns under major cities. >> in the first -- the fed abandon -- the philippines, >> down .6% after five weeks of losses. we are talking the longest losing streak since june 2011. on friday it failed to hold onto gains and ended at the lowest level in about a year. we have the nasa 100 underperforming with the 10 year yield still at about the 3% level. the wti price at the moment in the asian session is up .2%. this is around the six week high. we see the european union man it -- moving towards banning russian oil.
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in the u.s. jobs market, how does this affect the inflation picture not only in the u.s. but what the fed it and consequently, for new markets as well? payrolls are beating expectations in the friday number coming in 420 eight and matching march after the upward revision. what is interesting is we are seeing increasing pressure on the labor force. we already have a tight labor market. hourly earnings are not rising as much as expected. so it is a bit of a mixed signal when it comes to inflation pressures in the u.s.. >> it does not add clarity as to whether central banks are doing the right thing, whether they are being hawkish enough or whether we will be caught in a situation where recession is back on the table. take a look at the set up. as you said, pretty murky when
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it comes to the aging trading session -- asian trading session monday. the aussie dollar still above $.70. we are watching new zealand where trading is flat at the moment. dollar-yen is holding steady. it is a pivotal week for markets, earnings, and political risk as well. markets in australia will be watching for some of the numbers of domestic activity data out of china given the warning we heard over the weekend from the primary -- the premier about downside pressure on the job market. >> especially in sovereign bond market weather in asia or the u.s., we see the global debt selloff. what will that mean for treasuries? they seem to be on the cusp of a new phase of training. we are talking multiyear highs when it comes to treasury yields. we are talking about perhaps a
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2018 level already for the 10 year yield for also the two-year and 5-year note. for the two and 5-year note you go back to 2018 level -- 2008 level highs. for the 10 year we are talking 2011 level highs. we are watching these economic numbers out of the u.s. this week. especially april cpi will be a key focus wednesday. we are also watching debt. one of the biggest months of debt auctions is starting this week. liquidity has already deteriorated. we are watching whether treasury market moves are this week. >> we are also watching for signs of deterioration when it comes to crude. we got that commitment from g7 leaders about really committing to double down on the ban on russian oil across europe and other major markets. there are still some holdouts. we are watching saudi arabia as well after opec less is really staying the course, albeit
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cautiously. we are seeing saudi arabia cutting prices when it comes to exports in asia. so it all of -- a lot of disruptions, it seems, and concerns over demand destruction when it comes to the continue to china lockdown. >> no wonder we heard saudi arabia is cutting oil prices for buyers in asia. we are watching for disruptions that may be coming with g7 leaders committed to banning russian oil exports. let's bring in bloomberg editor tony czuczka in washington and lee yvonne man in taipei. tony, let me start with you. how are we expect these commitments to ban russian oil imports to be? >> these are interventional -- international summits where they make broad perspectives. they are trying to do something
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momentous, particularly in european countries area the u.s. and u.k. have already announced that they are banning russian oil imports and significant germany is backing and eu planned for january deadline. we are from japan sunday in the g7 virtual meeting that they are also making a strong commitment. so, there is movement afoot. the flipside is that several eastern european eu countries especially hungry are still holding out on the eu plan and that will continue to bear watching in the days ahead. >> tony, when it comes to the eu struggling to wean itself off russian oil and gas despite warnings for the need for energy security diversification over the past decade, what are we getting as the latest signal? >> well, that is where countries like hungary, the czech republic, and slovakia come in.
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this is a historic, if you like, issue. also a geographic one because they are closer to russia. many of these countries and also some other non-eu countries like, say, serbia and eastern europe depend very heavily on russian energy supplies. there are also political issues. affinity with russia, to some degree, or with putin. this is something the eu kneels -- still needs to work out but germany itself has been inching towards the concept of weaning itself off of russian gas and oil. >> of course affecting the oil market is the demand picture out of china. we know that the covid zero impact has had an impact on the china economy. now we are getting a warning from the prime minister himself
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about the job situation there. how worrisome is that this given its importance in the social stability framework of the country? >> it seems like employment has become a priority now for the policymakers out there. you talked about the premier talking about how it is a great event complicated jobs situation now. you have these two seemingly contradictory goals. achieving covid zero at around a 5.5% growth target. around that we saw even more intense measures in the most two most important cities in china, beijing and shanghai over the weekend. that is why you are the premier instructing all governor departments and read -- government departments and regions to help businesses retain jobs. we have seen the jobless rate in china in march climbed to 5.8%, the highest since may 2020. saturday china reported 4384 new
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covid cases, passing a break in shanghai cases at least below 4000. that has been the norm for some time now. beijing reported 62 new covid cases. we saw authorities there sunday requiring all residents in an eastern district, chaoyang, to start working from home. this is a district home to many multinational offices like apple, alibaba, many embassies and nonessential services like gems and movie theaters. they have been forced to close down for now. >> what are we expecting from trade numbers ivanka? what -- yvonne? >> as the manufacturer of the world china is very important. we will see how this will furthers complicate supply chain disruptions and add to risk in the inflation picture. trade numbers for april will see the extent of the damage from the shanghai lockdowns.
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exports are expected to grow only 2.7 percent, the weakest growth we have seen since june 2020. imports are expected to contract by 3%, a second months of contraction in china. this just goes to show that the weakness we are seeing in consumer spending has millions in sing time -- shanghai were confined to their homes during that time. we have seen when it comes to businesses, shanghai is trying to retain operations and get factories to continue to resume production that we have seen some factories and companies saying it is still tough at the moment. two thirds of japanese factories saying they have not been able to resume production at this time. the inflation numbers later this week, the focus will really be on food shortages due to lockdowns and how that is driving up cost. inflation cpi is expected to ramp up to 1.9%. factory prices elevated around
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7.7%. >> let's go to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> john lee has been named hong kong's next chief executive in a rubber election sunday. he vowed to strengthen national security and accelerate the city's integration with mainland china. his head -- he says his new job calls for accountability to beijing at hong kong, sunday's ballot drew criticism from the european union which called on authorities to respect democracy. the two candidates vying to become australia's next prime minister clashed in a second election debate. scott morrison and anthony albanese were grown on cost-of-living issues, corruption, and inflation. it often deteriorated into a yelling match between the pair, accusing each other of being unsuitable to lead. australians had to the polls may 20 first.
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polling stations opened in the philippines for an election that could see the only son of ferdinand marcos taking the presidency more than three decades out of his father was ousted. he let opinion surveys by double digits ahead of election day. his main opponent, the vice president, leni looks to pull often upset. robredo first lady jill biden made a surprise visit to ukraine to meet with schoolchildren and the ukrainian first lady at a school being used for temporary housing. bono also performed in a subway station in kyiv. global news 24 hours a day. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> ahead, g7 leaders committed
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>> i think the fed's actions were reasonable up through the middle of the summer through the summer of 2021. i do think that by september it was becoming clear that this was not primarily a supply chain disruption driven inflation. it was an overstimulated demand driven inflation. that -- at that point, in hindsight, i think it would have served the fed well to move in september. it's very difficult to determine that at that point. but in hindsight, that is how
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they should have moved. >> former fed governor randal quarles there. we are getting a key u.s. cpi wednesday after the fed world market last week. let's look at the main events in the next few days. it is victory day in russia. the anniversary of the german surrender may 9, 1945. in ordinary years and the date is marked by a military parade through the red square. president vladimir putin is expected to speak this time and eventually touch on the war in ukraine. progress is also expected in finland and sweden's efforts to join nato. presidential elections are underway in the philippines. we will be live from manila through the day. >> more chances for volatility in the markets. we have the u.s. cpi print expected to show price pressures easing a little bit from -- but of course, we are talking the highest levels in four decades
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or so. we also have speakers back out on a to defend policy actions after we saw markets with all of last week. bloomberg contributor mohamed el-erian says policymakers need to do whatever is possible to regain credibility. >> it is absolutely essential the fed regain credibility. it will not do so until it does what the ecb did last week, tell us why the inflation forecast was so wrong for so long and what is your inflation methodology? unless it does that it will not be able to restore its credibility. it will find more and more people close to the fed that think away from the fed. >> those are the major events in the week ahead. let's bring in our next guest that says the fed should bring discipline to decision-making. with us is sri. so always good to have you with
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us. you just heard mohamed el-erian talking about fed policy decision-making. you talk about discipline. how would the fed about that? >> thank you for inviting me. it's good to be back. when i talk about lack of discipline i see it from two different viewpoints. it was clear to a number of panelists, me included, that a year ago inflation was already not transitory. jerome powell continued to say that and waited until he was named for a new term by president biden before he changed his tune. so he wasted a lot of time. the miscalculation of inflation on the fence part is something that they cannot reverse in time quickly. second, when they do change, the decision-making is what i would call most respectfully a
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seat-of-the-pants decision. just decide to do it by 50 basis points. he said he will not increase it by 75 basis points even though he says he cares really much about bringing down inflation. he just doesn't make any sense. that is why i have argued that one of the other professors that bloomberg tv's mike mckee interviewed at stanford in the last couple days, john taylor, had a rule called the taylor role. he takes into account what inflation is, whether it is about or below target and whether economic growth is about or below target and that means automatically you would change interest rates based on that. you do not need human beings making decisions. you just need to follow a rule that is simple enough and do it. that is what the fed is simply not doing. >> why is the fed not doing that? why is it staying behind the curve?
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we did speak to john taylor saying the fed was going in the right direction, perhaps, not necessarily taking off the 75 basis points the table. is this because we are still relying on the fed push when comes to the markets? >> that's exactly right. because, we saw that in december repeating -- december 20 18 repeating january 2019, in a matter of two weeks when the fed it talked about many more rate increases in 2019. by january 4 of 2019, jerome powell essentially went and had a mia called love. he said -- mia called club. he said he would not increase interest rates and interest rates fell sharply during 2019. the stock market made up in the rest of january what it had lost the final weeks of the previous year. so everybody was happy and we
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went on. meantime, the feds balance sheet was growing and a zero interest rates were continuing. whether it was covid or not, the fed simply does not want to take its foot off the gas pedal and that is a problem. >> i the meantime there are other risks that persist. covid zero and the approach in china, the russian more on ukraine. does it feel like equity markets are not able to focus on other risks? it feels like there is a level of acceptance that these will be medium-term situations. >> haidi, great questions. i think the market is aware of the russia ukraine whisk -- risk. it is aware of the continuation of covid in parts of the world. the shanghai lockdown creates a major issue. for beijing and more chinese cities it will have a global impact in terms of both growth and inflation.
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however, the investing public has been used to defending -- depending on general powell and his fed to bail them out. now they find with the cpi at 8.5%, even if it comes down to 8.1% wednesday, it is still way too hard. the fed cannot help very much. jerome powell may try to do that, in which case, we have things getting even more out of control and inflation will pick up. notice that while powell blames supply bottlenecks and blame covid -- blames covid, he has never never admitted that extensive monetary growth despite economic recovery was a major factor in inflation. money growth and inflation are intimately related but the chairman will not admit it. the fed is thoughtless as it goes about conducting policy.
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the latest business flash headlines. it $16 billion takeover of its rival raising doubts that one of the nation's biggest ever deal will close. rogers wants to settle the issue out-of-court and is willing to sell assets to resolve the concern. the contempt -- the companies are extending the deadline for mergers until the end of july. a group led by the former guggenheim partners president and clearly capital have a combined for around $5.2 billion ending russian billionaires
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russian abramovitz nine year tenure at the russian team. the price was one of the highest ever for professional sports teams following a bidding war that went on for nearly two months. china oceanwide and surrenders after failing to make mortgage payments failing to develop one of manhattan's tallest towers, defaulting defaulting on alone on the project. let's look at the day ahead for australia. the second debate is taking place ahead of the national election may 21. prime minister scott morrison and opposition had anthony albanese were grilled on issues including inflation and corruption.
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the pacific nation has a security deal with beijing. west back -- westpac announced cash profit of 2.2 billion dollars beating estimates of $2 billion. >> look at futures trading. we are seeing the pressure with the s&p futures down .6%. remember that the tech giants have underperformed the markets. thats not surprising given we have seen the 10 year yield trading above 3%. the dow jones futures are down about .5%. we have already seen five weeks of consecutive losses for u.s. stocks. bank of america coming out saying that their base case scenario remains equity loans and yield highs and is yet to have been reached. we have apparently not seen the bottom as of yet. this of course as we are watching out for u.s. cpi numbers as well as more debt to
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>> u.k. didi -- u.k. gdp growth is expected to slow sharply. >> the impact on the european economy will be substantial. >> the proximity to the war as part of the chant -- challenge. it looks like the recession risk is very high. >> there is a good probability for that, if i had to guess, 50-50. each recession is different. >> if ukraine gets worse i assume europe will go to recession. >> i think we are close to
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recession. >> i think we are all concerned about the global economy. >> it is more a soft landing of the gdp that i recession. >> we hope there will not be any kind of recession because it is such a strong economy. >> some of our questions from last week about whether europe would enter a recession amid the war in ukraine. g7 leaders planned to -- pledged to ban the import of russian oil after a video call with volodymyr zelenskyy. the commitment for japan. we know a number of g7 nations
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already made the plan -- pledged independently. there are other holdouts, though. can you talk us through the effectiveness of this band. >> obviously, we know any sort of embargo is meant to either change behavior or to punish the existing behavior and to mount pressure. in terms of phasing out toyland that kind of dependency -- phasing out oil and the kind of discrepancy we see across the g7, particularly around the european continent, this is where some of the issues are coming from mostly because obviously in europe while there have been the steps to get to energy diversification, obviously, they have not gone as far and this is what we have seen in the wake of the eu decision to we the union -- wean
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the union off of russian oil later this year with some provisions for exemptions for countries like hungary, slovakia, or the czech republic. we will see a lot more of that now when we see further packages around the sustainability and consensus given the sort of economic applications this would have on countries. >> the reality is that the sanctions have not stop the war and it is a key date, victory day. what are you expecting from moscow? there are basically two scenarios most likely. i obviously would stress that we are just getting to may 9 in europe. the first would be one where vladimir putin could actually declare an all-out war in ukraine. up until now, this was seen as a special operation. if it is an all-out war this would allow him to actually mobilize the military aged men
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in russia to actually escalate further. the other scenario would be one where putin, somebody who prizes symbolism, would be saying, look, we have achieved what we wanted in eastern ukraine. we will now may be annexed those self-declared republics, the contested territories, and potentially consolidate some of the gains russia has made in these. but we know the fighting is going on and obviously we should not take this date to be any end of anything. but potentially, maybe one of those critical junctures of the war. >> those scenarios, how would they be received among the broader public in russia? does that matter? >> for vladimir putin the support of the public is important, but i would not say it is crucial. we have to understand that russia in the past couple years,
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especially, with the consolidation of power under vladimir putin has basically gone into this classical sort of personal list authoritarian regime is not a dictatorship. given everything that is going on with his grip on power, his control of the media, and similar. in terms of the importance of public opinion i would say that while it is important, it is not necessarily something that will sway him to act in either way and this is why we have seen actually russia, the russian regime not necessarily changing his behavior even in the wake of all of these sanctions that it has been phasing from the west. >> of course, they are having most effects on everyday russians, on their ability to purchase goods, to travel, and similar. >> how prepared are nato and allies on all of these different scenarios that could evolve, especially this week, is very
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crucial week with victory day? >> well, nato is now mobilized on its eastern frank -- flank at a rate it has not been at any point in the post-cold war period. we cannot underestimate the extent of mobilization on the alliance to protect basically the 30 members strong alliance and especially from the potential spillover into some of the eastern flying countries. so there are around 40,000 nato troops that have been it employed more than prior to russia's invasion. there are federal groups ready mobilized in a way they have not been post-cold war. really, a lot more is being done in terms of coordination, in
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terms of intelligence sharing, trying to essentially prevent any potential spillover to nato's eastern flank. >> we have already seen the huge impact when it comes to supply chains, the energy market, the commodities market. are there many options in terms of the diversification of these markets, both for russia, but also its recipients in traditional markets? >> sure. short to medium terms of prices on food for example will remain given that disruptions we have seen. obviously everyone by now has started i think both ukraine and russia are in terms of their supply of some of the crops, right? wheat, for instance, or sunflower seeds and similar. for russia we have to understand that it has not been necessarily isolated by the entire international community. it still has its markets outside of the traditional west.
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but also what we need to understand is that for the european union, this is going to be a kind of, again, not very southern process. but we have to also take into account that basically sanctions packages have been applied, everything 2014, really, and both russia and other european union have already been prepared. there is a lot more that has been done internally in terms of some of the kind of divergence of the markets in that sense. from which, actually, some of the main agricultural suppliers in the european union have been profiting, say, france for instance in particular. >> domestically and internationally president zelenskyy was really able to rally the hard deadlines as this
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-- the heart and minds as this drags on. is there any indication he is still seeing engagement and support? >> what we have seen over the cost -- past couple days and this weekend is the extent of support we have seen for the ukrainian people, for the ukrainian government is quite remarkable. so some of the high-profile visits, the president of the german bundestag with a second person of authority in german government. the canadian prime minister coming. the u.s. first lady. obviously, a large number of diplomatic delegations have already been there. i think that symbolism is important. i think that on that level of showing support along with the provision of military aid, in terms of the provision of humanitarian assistance, that is crucial moving forward. >> is always good having your thoughts, university of sydney senior lecturer joining us from our sydney studio.
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that's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> saudi arabia has cut oil prices for asian buyers from record highs as covid lockdowns in china way on demand. state owned saudi aramco dropped out of asia for around four dollars of barrow down to nine dollars in may. it lowered oil grades for northwest europe at prices for u.s. customers were the same. the u.s. banned american consulting and accounting firms from rushing -- working with russia and imposed its first sanctions on gazprom bank. it also includes limits on russian control television stations and visa restrictions. warning of a complicated situation for beijing jobs threatened by covid restrictions. the premier's warning
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unemployment came after the nation's jobless rate climbed to 5.8 percent in march of the highest since may 2020. global news 24 hours on air and on uber quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts under 120 countries. >> a second debate has been held in astoria for the two main candidates ahead of the may 21 election. let's get more from ainsley hagler. i watched her this last night. it was pretty tough, wasn't it? yes, it was a very scattered debate. they yelled at each other a lot. there was some discussion of china, some discussion of the cost of living, corruption. the clear winner seemed to be anthony albanese on the night but it was certainly not a fantastic debate. >> any kerry -- any ketek a waste -- any key takeaways when it comes to the broader agenda? >> there was a discussion about
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cost that was important. anthony albanese discussed how they plan to bring the cost of living down. not so much of the check out, but looking at the cost of childcare and wages and things like that that would inspire productivity rather than pushing inflation up. i think that was an important message for him to get across. scott morrison meanwhile was prodding albanese on the opposition relationship with china, which will probably resonate with some voters. looking at the polling this morning it looks like labor has pulled away further from the government. the likely winner of the coming election. it puts a hung parliament more into the unlikely territory than it was having a week ago. >> the prime minister last time was really marred by a series of scandals and shortfalls when it comes to government policy towards women. has that been a priority in terms of wanting to get that female voter back and engage? >> yes, we had mother's day here
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sunday. both leaders took the opportunity to try and engage with female voters. they are also doing subsidized ivf. they are looking at other cost-of-living measures that might sway female voters. however, it does look like women have turned away from the government and are more likely to vote labor this election. they have things they have more confidence labor will manage, cost-of-living pressures that are front of mind for so many people. >> for more insight on the aussie election campaign listen to bloomberg australia hosted by ford allen and georgina mckay looking at rise of independent candidates in the election and the threat to the government from mining billionaire class parliament.
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lee as this assessor -- this assessor that the successor after an uncontested election. >> hong kong has its next chief executive. but there is no surprise factor here. john lee has been the presumptive successor to carrie lam since he became the sole candidate to win beijing's backing. he began his career in the police force, rising through the ranks of local government. as a security minister and then chief secretary he was instrumental in enforcing the national security law imposed by beijing following mass protest that disrupted the city in 2019. he secured mainland support for building isolation facilities during the worst of the city's omicron outbreak. as hong kong's leader john lee says he will focus on restoring business confidence safeguard the city's status as asia's financial hub. he says this goes hand in hand
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with a clear covid-19 strategy. with its border effectively closed for the past two years hong kong has seen an exodus of residents and ex-pats. john leaves challenge will be winning back the international business community trust while still sharing -- showing loyalty to beijing and its covid zero policy. >> we are watching another key election in asia today. polls open at in the philippines earlier this hour where over 18,000 positions will be filled including the presidency. let's bring in our chief international correspondent for southeast asia and our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle in hong kong. stephen, what will john lee's priorities be and what does this say about opening hong kong's borders? >> those are the two main issues in addition to the societal issues including housing, a
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long-term goal of every chief executive who preceded him. but right now the paramount concern according to john lee after he has essentially been confirmed as he will become the next chief executive in 54 days is national security. this is no surprise. he is the former security secretary and former chief secretary who spearheaded much of the covid response and also the response against the opposition. of course, hong kong has had a turbulent couple years and he became the chief secretary last year. security will be as number one priority. this includes the eventual passing of hong kong zone security legislation called article 23. this would be in addition to what we already have in hong kong the national security law that kind of sidestep the local legislative council and was implemented on hong kong in 2020. article 23 sparked all of those protests in 2003. however it will likely be resurrected under a term by john lee who takes over in just 54
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days. the other main issue on the minds of many business leaders here in hong kong is the opening up of hong kong. restoring competitiveness as places like singapore and other places in asia and the west have opened up and learn to live with the virus. hong kong is not there yet and that is what -- this is what john lee had to say about making hong kong more competitive. >> we must expand our international connectivity and establish a more favorable business environment and increase our overall competitiveness. >> as expected, not much seen on the protest frontier yesterday with john lee's election. >>haslinda, when it comes to the philippines, how consequential, certainly very symbolic, is this election? >> it is more than symbolic. it is consequential and pivotal.
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the person elected as president today will shape not just the future of the country but also the past. remember 36 years ago millions of filipinos took to the streets to out then president ferdinand marcos. his government was brutal. his government was corrupt. in the 20 years he was in power he imposed martial law. this meant people were tortured. he looted and estimated $10 billion from the country. most of which has yet to be recovered by subsequent governments. now, 36 years on we have his only son being one of the two leading candidates for president. he has used his political career to pretty much reinvented the government of his father and is touting it as a golden era in the country's history. so he has reinvented his legacy and reinvented history. so a lot is at state -- stake.
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>> what about its relationship with the united states? we know that relations have been frayed during the dutere administration. what can we expect from the marco junior administration? >> you are right, it will be very complicated. remember that the philippines has always been a very close ally of the u.s. because it is strategically located for the u.s. to contain china's military presence especially in the south china sea. so it's a very important ally but remember, it is, but hated simply because of marcos -- it is complicated simply because of marcos juniors position with the u.s.. he was convicted in the u.s. and has yet to face what has been imposed on him by the u.s. court, more than $300 million to human rights victims. if he were to set foot in the
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u.s. he may get arrested. data complicates the relationship with the u.s.. that gravitates him towards china. >> our chief international correspondent for southeast asia haslinda amin there in manila and stephen engle in hong kong. coming up, more on what to expect from hong kong. a little later we will speak with byrne on chad a member of the incumbent leaders candidate about the city's new chief executive john lee at his approach to national security. much to come on daybreak. this is bloomberg.
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>> the interim after the cfo harry theodore as well as at the chief casino officer for new south wales and the chief risk officer paul martin resigned earlier last week. we are hearing to staff in addition to naming the interim cfo are suspending rebate players for all casinos as a time of turmoil continues for the gaming giant with the ceo quitting earlier in march as of the inquiry continues to raise
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questions over moderate laundering -- money-laundering concerns and the casino inquiry accused to star entertainment of disguising gambling funds with allegations of misconduct against the casino operator. the inquiry continues and focuses on allegations including disguising hotel expenses and withdrawals on chinese debit cards to fund gambling, potentially also allowing money-laundering to take place inside gambling halls and avoid regulatory scrutiny particularly when it comes into bringing in millions of dollars are far highrollers. >> we are looking forward to the australian open after three weeks of losses. we might be setting up for more downside giving the u.s. futures under pressure after already seeing five weeks of losses in the new york session. we are talking about the longest losing streak since 2011. the fmc 500 is at a one year
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