sooner rather than later. >> if the vent can navigate this path i think you will see equity markets move higher. >> you have to give them credit for pivoting as quickly as they have and they can pivot again. >> it is a pivotal moment for fed policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. features -1.5% on the s&p. five weeks of losses. tom: the headline is the selloff extends with the vix up three figures. there is tons of international relations news. vladimir putin speaking in moscow. all of it secondary to the market response we see this morning. dollar stronger. jonathan: the dollar strength is

unreal, the strongest since 2002. we had another 1% move in dollar china. tom: i know you came in late. i was here at 3:00 with lisa. we were looking at the dollar, fx charts. 2002, strong dollar testing out the historic dollar strength back to the plaza accord. jonathan: lisa abramowicz just told me she had an extra hour in bed. lisa: it did not work. i tried to hide under my covers. jonathan: it was a 20 basis point move on the s&p. absolutely brutal. lisa: the intraday moves were dramatic. this volatility is something people were not used to. people can attribute it to the fed but it is not the fed. this is the realization they are tied between a rock in a hard place. increasingly concerned about recession and tied to what is

going on geopolitically, whether having to do with ukraine or china lockdown. jonathan: looking ahead to cpi on wednesday and hoping we see more deceleration. lisa: but does it matter if we just saw peak inflation? if we end the year at 4% inflation will we feel good? will the fed say we are done? i don't think so. jonathan: i am with lisa. the mechanical peak is not the story. how much longer does this persist, that is the secret sauce for the future. tom: what is the fed going to do? we just got over the last fed meeting. june 15. along the way we will have inflation. the inflation battle over the weekend was extraordinary. mr. silver at jp morgan looking more short-term. it is a services sector inflation catching up with goods inflation? you featured the jan hatzius piece where he says it is over

and done. jonathan: and for the first time in last couple of years looking to downgrade the inflation forecast instead of upgrade. speaking of central bank decisions, i would say the ecb is in the spotlight. june 9. lisa: not in a good way. did they follow the bank of england with a dose of honesty, or do they come out with something more comforting? how they do that when it has gotten away from them, the narrative of inflation tied with slowing growth? jonathan: we are negative on the s&p once again by 1.5%. on the nasdaq, you cannot get a break. down 1.9%. yields are higher on the 10 year by six basis points. looking at 3.20%. the five-year the highest since 2008. lisa: we have gotten so numb to these record highs. every day, to get a new

postcrisis five, whether post-pandemic prices or post-pandemic -- or post mortgage crisis, getting that every day is shocking to the system. today we have an incredible lineup. to give us a sense of are we there yet? when do we get capitulation? what are the geopolitical macro risks. really interesting calls on the euro. u.s. deputy treasury secretary, how they deal with the sanctions as well as the tariffs on china at a time of rising geopolitical tension? and the bank of america private bank with an interesting call about how much losses have already been baked into some of those treasury yields. when you start buying this dip. 8:00 we also get raphael bostic joining michael mckee, giving a

sense of what is next for the fed. i think the narrative has moved away from what is in the fed's control. one of the things out of the fed control is the response mechanism. at 2:00, i know tom is looking to spend more money. meta is opening its first physical store in california. the reason i am putting this out is not because i want tom to spend more money, it is that facebook year to date has had its face ripped off. 40% decline. this idea of where does the growth come from in the growth names? how do they recoup face and the idea of growth. tom: did she get that phrase face ripped off from one of their kids? jonathan: the metaverse where stocks are higher, bitcoin is 80,000, and facebook is not down 50%. good times. cannot wait. let's get to eric friedman.

equities have been trashed. we have seen the same thing in the bond market. is it time to buy bonds? eric: we would incrementally be adding to duration. we still think there are opportunities in the commodity space, specifically infrastructure would be our preference. technically speaking we are at 3.25 for the 10 year. we would be incrementally adding but i want to see -- tom: when you buy stocks? eric: our downside case would be 3850, 3900, which would put us at 17 times the $225 figure. we have to see this neutral rate conversation slowing down. it is good to have more fed

participants talk about where they see the upper bound of the fed funds, but we are at 280. if we get to 3.25%, that is down another percent from here. tom: been laid learn qualifies -- lisa: it raises the question about whether the dollar truly is or will continue to be the haven. eric, do you focus on dollar assets or do you think that has been overplayed at eight -- at this point? eric: it seems like it is overplayed. it is hard to get in the way of it. if you look at the bias, japan does not have a great base case, europe does not have a base case of growth. i still think the cleanest dirty shirt remains the u.s. we are approaching critical technical levels for dollar-yen,

for dollar euro as well but we would not get in the way of owning the dollar. tom: if we cannot gas this horrific war, we can guess that at some point china it will move away from lockdown. what will china moving away from lockdown due to the stock market? eric: i think if you look at neel kashkari's piece from last week, that is good insight into the fed mentality about lockdowns. what that means for us is there is a viewpoint that has been a source of relief and higher prices and sustained higher prices. if we start to see the lockdowns removed, that could incrementally be a positive. the other key variable is what does that mean for demand? demand is the thing we still think is there from an underlying perspective, but we also run the risk of a second repricing lower if we see demand

destruction rolled back. if we start to see chinese lockdowns but we do not see follow-through on demand, that would be concerning for us. net-net we think it is a positive, but incrementally it means we do not see the follow-through on demand, that would be concerning for us. that would be the second repricing lower. jonathan: how important is wednesday's cpi print? eric: 8.5% to 8% does not seem great, but if we see a sticky level, that could be a negative. we think showing trend downward in the rate of change is what we are looking for. the real meat of inflation has to happen in that couple of months versus the next two readings. jonathan: one of the best. great to catch up with you. eric friedman of u.s. bank asset management. cpi is the next big stop for

this market. tom: the pce is what the pros are focused on. the core nominal i have trouble with. you look at what gas is doing, diesel, who cares about a core statistic? i take eric's point that to lean on this one report is probably off the mark. it is getting the data in. i've to focus on nasdaq, down 2%. jonathan: it is brutal. five weeks of losses on the nasdaq, five weeks of losses on the s&p. for five weeks yields have been climbing on the 10 year and for five weeks we have had dollar strength. it has been the story for the last five weeks. lisa: the longest streak of losses for the s&p back to 2011. have we seen true capitulation? jonathan christie said no. you are not seeing the forced sales yet, which is shocking

given the level of declines in the feeling of a slow grind we have not felt since 2002. jonathan: chris harvey of wells fargo would call that the cathartic puke. lisa: face ripped off. cathartic puke. [laughter] we have had a couple of weeks, haven't we? tom: let's talk drawdown. this is futures dodd -- futures drawdown. the nasdaq just under -25%. jonathan: let's call it what it is. it is a bear market. the nasdaq down another 2%. the s&p off 1.6%. for our audience worldwide, from a beautiful new york city, looking at an ugly equity market again. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin justified his

faltering invasion of ukraine as a battle comparable to the fight against nazi germany. he spoke at the annual victory day celebration in red square marking the defeat of germany in 1945. he said the conflict with ukraine and nato members was inevitable. the dollar dominance continues. the greenback extended gains into a third day. china's lockdowns accelerating inflation in the worsening outlook for global growth has boosted demand for the dollar as a haven. in china exports and imports struggled. export growth fell to the lowest and almost two years. imports were unchanged but would've been weakened without the rising commodity prices. in the philippines the son of the late dictator ferdinand marcus is said to be elected president. he has been helped by a barrage of online propaganda painting

the years under his father as a golden era. his main rival says there is concern over malfunctioning voter count machines. it is ending as fast as it began for retail day traders. amateur investors who jumped it when the lockdown began have given back their gains according to an estimate by morgan stanley. higher interest rates have led to a bear market and speculative stocks have surged when stimulus started flowing in 2020. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i worry the federal reserve is trying to be too nice to markets, be it the transitory inflation narrative that has lasted too long. see what happened on wednesday. you cannot go on tv and speak about all of the uncertainties and then rule out a certain policy response. jonathan: what a call from mohamed el-erian. good morning. live on tv and radio, lower again on the s&p i 1.6%. on the nasdaq down almost 2%. yields higher seven basis points. in the fx market, dollar strength all over the place. the dollar index the strongest back to 2002.

if you're a big oil importer facing higher crude prices, you have a problem. india has little but of a problem. tom: this has been widely anticipated. this is a country with all sorts of unique challenges. then there is the unexpected. the unexpected is last month the temperature averaged 104 degrees. i cannot do the centigrade translation but that is unimaginable even in tucson, arizona. they are in the midst of a drought. overlay ukraine and even russia with a good crop. this is about beginning to deal with the food crisis in india. less about hydrocarbons and much more about wheat. jonathan: a big crude importer as well. the indian central bank said to be intervening in the fx market.

record weakness on the ruby. tom: i did a regression back to the financial crisis. it is on trend appreciation. there is an acceleration, and it is out to new record weakness and goes back to the export and import dynamics of drought and food. jonathan: every currency pair seeing big moves. another .9% move at almost 1%. this is big stuff. tom: it is the global litmus paper. we do not talk about it. canadian dollar over 1.29. turkish lira moments away from 15 per euro. these are all small stories that aggregate to what others were talking about which is the persistent strong dollar. jonathan: we did have a break of 70 on the aussie overnight.

tom: it is about time to have a fosters. jonathan: have you said that to anyone else? tom: i will move forward and offend maria tadeo and annmarie hordern in washington. maria, a general question with the fanfare in moscow. your reporting on this moment for vladimir putin? maria: to me what was very significant is not so much what he said. we were expecting the usual spiel, this is nato being a danger to russia. he talks about the great soviet victory over nazi germany. russia has referred to this as the great patriotic war. they believe it is the soviet factor that change the outcome of the war. what is key is what he did not say. he did not use the words ukraine. he repeated eight times donbas,

but that was it. there was no reference to the capital of ukraine, no reference to mariupol. there had been some anticipation vladimir putin could use this day to declare full war on ukraine. to me that was quite telling it was softer than what some were expecting. jonathan: do you think this is a de-escalation, that will be ok of russia just gets the donbas region? maria: maybe you could interpret it that way. the donbas will now be the focal point. he talks about the annexation of donbas. ukrainians say that will not happen. there will not be a peace deal if russia takes over donbas. from ukrainian perspective, they believe that if they hand over the donbas, that will not put an end to the question. russia will just use that to

regroup and go back at in two years. vladimir putin said this conflict was almost unavoidable, inevitable. ukrainians believe that in many ways. that russia under vladimir putin and ukraine moving to the west, they cannot coexist. that is not good if you look at a potential peace deal. the talks are not even happening. i would not take this as a sign of de-escalation for the time being. jonathan: in the meantime -- lisa: in the meantime, jill biden went to ukraine overnight in an unannounced visit. what is the significance of that? if you look forward to foreign policy in the u.s. and what they are hoping for in the nation? annmarie: she shared a lot of correspondence with volodymyr zelenskyy -- she said she wanted to spend mother's day with ukrainian mothers and displaced

children and also meet the first lady of ukraine face-to-face. we have not seen misses the lenski since the war began on february 24. this is symbolic. we should note, she is getting a lot of claps on the back from both sides of the aisle. a lot of republicans like this show of strength, what she did as she was in eastern europe deciding to go to western ukraine to meet with ukrainians. tom: what is next for brussels? maria: there is g7 meetings this week, than there is the big nato summit happening at the end of this week. a lot of diplomacy. the issue for brussels's we see the internal politics are becoming a problem. we see it with victor or bond in hungry. -- we see it with victor orban in hungary. olaf scholz approval rating

keeps plunging. emmanuel macron is criticized for being on the phone with vladimir putin. what is the european position on many of these issues? jonathan: have to leave it there. maria tadeo alongside and reorder and. tomorrow -- alongside annmarie hordern. tomorrow we reportedly hear from the president on inflation. tom: he has to manage that message. we will see what it does for oil. maria mentioned the german elections. i know it is belief -- i know it is beneath the radar. this is up by denmark. olaf scholz was absolutely crushed. there is no other way to put it. another important election this sunday and i think maria is dead on. it is about micro data. jonathan: she is always dead on.

the tory a bitter is the most popular -- victoria bitter is the most popular australian beer. they will tell you they do not drink fosters. [laughter] tom: in perth they drink victoria bitter. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. once again, we head south. on the s&p, down 1.7%. on the nasdaq, down 2%. five weeks of losses on the s&p, the longest losing streak back to 2011. five weeks of gains on the 10 year yields. your tenure, 3.1866. have to go back to 2018 when we saw something north of 3.23. once you take that out you are going back to 2011. very close to those levels. yields higher on the 10 year by six basis points. on the five-year the highest since 2008. close to 3.1%. that is the bond market. the dollar is stronger.

your dollar index is the strongest back to 2002. dollar-yen at levels we have not seen in 20 years. a brief break of $.70 on aussie u.s.. that was the story earlier on. a 1% move today. tom: we have to do quotes more often. to see the australian dollar move, the australian renminbi is another relationship. we are scrupulous about our corrections. listening in perth, i got my beers all messed up. swan longer. -- swan lagger. emu export has an alcohol content of 14%. good morning. jonathan: i told you the fosters joke would be a problem. tom: i went down in flames. jonathan: do you want to do your

accent again? tom: no. it is more queens. jonathan: you want to offend them, too? [laughter] tom: aussie dollar is important. what global wall street is looking at is to triangulate comment what we are not saying with this equity carnage is the triangulation is off the u.s. 10 year yield. jonathan: the aussie story, global growth, commodities. chinese data is pretty weak. weakness we have seen in the chinese currency -- we saw the weakness in the economy, did not see it translates for the fx channel. we are now. tom: deterioration since we started surveillance. nasdaq 2.12%. the vix out three figures. on the american economy as we pick up the pieces, the chief

economist of steeple joins us. lindsay, i want to talk to you about the call for a session parlor game. i do not want to take the time about who is where and -- who is where in that. how do you sit at a desk and call a recession? lindsay: we are looking at negative growth but we are not convinced we will see an outline -- an outright recession. the chair did back off the possibility of larger hikes of 75 basis whines. he did say in additional 50 basis point height is on the table, but they are in a relatively less hawkish position and continued to talk about the optimism for navigating a soft landing. i think the committee is well aware of the weakness speaking into the data and that did leave some optimism the fed will begin to back off as it becomes more clear they have tightened us

into a position of weakness. tom: over the weekend we got analysis on inflation, and to be fair to j.p. morgan and goldman sachs one is a more long-term view. and silver at j.p. morgan is looking more short-term. which timeframe is more valuable to you to analyze price change? lindsey: it has to be short-term. we expect this week's number to give us some reprieve. it takes months for supply chain disruption to work into the figure. the april figure likely reflects the start of the year, before russia invaded ukraine, before the second and third round of lockdowns overseas. while we will see more positive improvement in the numbers, i hesitate to say that means we

have already reached peak levels. with these lockdowns coming into play, with ukrainian conflict moving into its third month, we could see prices peak backup as we move into the third quarter, really complicating the picture for the fed. the near term is what monetary policy in the markets will be focused on. lisa: that was what neel kashkari of the me apple is fed was addressing -- of the minneapolis fed was addressing. how basically the chinese disruptions may have a greater effect on the idea of recession then the u.s. -- anything they can do -- and they may be forced to raise rates faster in the face of prolonged shutdowns. what you make of that? is this the mainstream view that the fed has lost the plot and this has to do with geopolitical events? lindsey: it is a difficult scenario because typically the fed is raising the cost of capital when the economy is

overheating. the intention is to slow consumption and we see softer domestic activity and more benign inflation. we are starting from a baseline far from an overheating economy. the market is arguably poised to slow further as we are struggling to grow organic legs in the aftermath of the crisis. to complicate the equation further, the vast majority of price pressures are stemming from supply chain constraints. this renders traditional monetary policy metrics less effective in fighting inflation. if the fed continues to raise rates, that will slow the demand side of the equation, but it could lead us to the scenario where we are still dealing with elevated costs due to international conflict, international policy. now we have to contend with the effects of a slower economy. lisa: what is the playbook if we

do not get a peek at inflation just yet, if we see higher levels in the upcoming weeks and bonds? what is the consequence for the economy? lindsey: the consequences the fed remains aggressive, and rather than backing off, the fed continues along at 50 basis points, or even accelerates to 75 basis points. that leads us to the stagflation scenario i outlined where we are still dealing with higher costs, elevated inflation, but now the fed has tightened us into recessionary conditions. tom: you have a clue how corporate america, not only the i within the gdp equation, but a general statement how corporate america will adjust to these historic times? lindsey: i think businesses are struggling amid the weight of rising inflation. it is not just the consumers, it is also businesses.

businesses have a lot of wiggle room to pass higher costs to consumers without the risk of losing market share for now. as we see the household balance sheet continue under pressure, energy prices rising, agricultural prices rising, that is taking a larger chunk out of consumer ability to spend outside of discretionary items on nondiscretionary goods. that will complicate the process for businesses being able to pass on the cost. lisa: a lot of people keep pointing to the strengthen the consumer as a reason for no recession this year. when will we see something different? lindsey: we are already seeing something different. if you look at the consumer adjusting for inflation, we see real income down into negative territory come off double digits on an annual basis, and real consumption is trending back down below 2%. as we continue to see the household balance sheet eroded,

that will continue to exacerbate this downward trend in consumer activity. jonathan: thank you as always. lindsey piegza there. on the nasdaq, down 2.3%. equities breaking down, yields breaking out. 10 year just short of 3.20. in the fx market, nothing but dollar strength against everything in g10. the dollar index the strongest back to 2002. euro-dollar just about holding on to 1.05. aussie underperformance. tom: is time for an emu export. the one thing i would watch is sterling. we had a 1.22 handle when i walked in the door. sterling at 1.2318.

as we triangulate the bloomberg screen, it is simple. this early in the morning, may beat we have not tightened up to where we will be at 8:00 or 9:00. jonathan: 1.2261 the low of the session on cable. captures the fears of the moment, this idea you end up in a more prolonged state of higher inflation together with decelerating growth and a contraction. seth carpenter at morgan stanley says we live in the most chaotic, hard to predict, macro environment in decades. he goes on to say avoiding a recession is our base case, but acknowledged this is what markets do. they have to ship around a range of probabilities and those probabilities have changed. here's the quote from morgan stanley. markets will have to confront rising probability regardless. even if it is not the base case the probabilities are shifting.

tom: we are in the middle of two once-in-a-lifetime moments, the pandemic and some more grim news on covid, from the really good news of last couple of weeks, and then completely separate from that, the war, which maria tadeo is dissecting for us. everybody has adapted. i am using the bloomberg foreign-exchange as a litmus paper. jonathan: bramo, hoping for better news this wednesday. lisa: how much will it matter? how much is this a geopolitical story the fed has lost control over? jonathan: the nasdaq down 2.4%. yields 3.18 on the 10 year. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin been vote russia's fight against nazi

germany as he defended his faltering invasion of ukraine. at the victory celebration he said the russian military is defending what our fathers, and great grandfathers fought for. president zelenskyy responded on twitter, saying the russian army is dying not defending their country but trying to occupy another. the u.s. government had a record tax hall this spring and some of the credit goes to the surge in individual stock trading by americans. up some 43% over the same period in 2019. that is shrinking the budget deficit. in hong kong incoming leader john leap has promised to bolster national security and accelerate integration with mainland china. the former security minister is plenty to take power after a near unanimous election by a beijing controlled committee.

lee helps carrie lam crackdown on democracy protests three years ago. -- demonstrators have demanded the premier and his brother resigned in the midst of sri lanka's worst economic crisis since independence. prices of everything from gas -- are soaring. 20 u.s. internet providers will offer high-speed connections at essentially no cost to millions of low income households as part of a program funded by the infrastructure law passed last year. adt -- at&t and verizon are among the companies taking part. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there are no red lines for the regime in moscow. we are prepared for anything.

they said they are not going to attack us and they did. the question is are we prepared to do everything possible to defend our democracy and our freedom? ukraine has showed for the past 74 days we will bravely defend those values. jonathan: the ukraine ambassador to the i did states on cbs. breaking down by more than 2%. down on the nasdaq 2.5% and we keep going lower. yields higher on the 10 year. you have to go back to 2018 to see the yield higher. euro-dollar doing ok. dollar strength is the story across the board. tom: we will continue to follow this. there is a deterioration in the last as two hours. we take great pride in our

coverage of international relations of this horrific war in ukraine. general kimmit was mesmerizing on the military operation. cynthia uber joins us, director of russia and european studies. terrific work on russia. cynthia, this is from the great leader. today you are defending what our fathers, grandfathers, and great grandfathers fought for. the bottom line is there conflation of the nazis and a special military operation. what is next in this resurrection of the nazis of world war ii? cynthia: watching russia's victory day celebrations earlier this morning, i was struck by vladimir putin's speech to the troops because of some astonishing things he said that

american audiences would not pick up on immediately but are clear to russian domestic audiences. vladimir putin drew an implicit comparison between the russian regime -- between the nazi regime in the united states after 1991, with what vladimir putin claims was its ideology of political and economic exception out a. vladimir putin said the united sage has been humiliated the rest of the world and even its own european allies who have to lap up this rhetoric of superiority, and vladimir putin also went on to assure his domestic audience that russia, in 1945 and again today, is acting only in self-defense. he said that russia had approached the united states, wanted to talk about global security, had been rejected, and

russian intelligence had discovered the united states was planning an invasion so russia had no choice but to invade. tom: the heritage of holy cross has been to put religion in the calculus of our international relations. we have talked very little about this idea of the greek orthodox church, the church of kyiv and moscow. how does religion fulton to the framework vladimir putin has -- how does religion fold into the framework vladimir putin has in his mind? cynthia: if you talked to the ukrainian church they would stress there is a schism between ukrainian and russian orthodoxy. vladimir putin listed a number of cities that have courageously resisted the nazis, and the cities are in belarus, ukraine, and russia, and vladimir putin spoke to a spiritual unity which

he implied is much stronger than any contemporary ideas of national sovereignty. lisa: at the same time we see spiritual unity when it comes to trade between russia and china. how is that message fit into what you are talking about? cynthia: vladimir putin is emphasizing that russia is standing together with the majority of the worlds population in resisting united states domination. he talks a lot about china, but also india and africa not supporting sanctions against russia. he stresses that is where the majority of the world's population lives. he also emphasizes, just as he did in 2014, when russia first occupied crimea, that if europe is going to cut russia off with sanctions, russia does not need to worry about that.

russia can make new alliances with developing nations, with countries that looked eastward towards china. lisa: you have a sense of what the popular opinion is at a time there's a growing sense people are trying to get news through vpn's and author traditional mainstream of the kremlin-controlled media in russia? cynthia: great question. it is hard to gauge popular support for vladimir putin right now. the current polls show his popularity rising. there is reason to be skeptical about such figures. also western analytics say one part of russia's internet users have downloaded at least one vpn, which allows them to act as if they are locking in from another country and thus evade russian government restrictions on internet usage. also according to whatever statistics you look at, somewhere between 300,000 to one million russians have left the country because they do not want to be accused of collaborating

with the vladimir putin regime, these are college educated professionals. at the same time many russians left in the country, all of the ones i know left in the country, they are doing what a lot of germans did during the days of the hitler's regime before world war ii started. they are retreating into the private sphere. one thing you did not see on russian tv during the victory day celebration were a lot of pictures of huge crowds outside red square. all of the people i know have taken the lascaux weekends -- the last two weekends -- they are hunkering down and trying to plant on small land plots, any kind of vegetables they can. trying to anticipate rising food prices, a winter that can be hard if the work goes on in russia continues to be the target of sanctions, they are trying to figure how how they and their family can hunker down

and survive and try to remove themselves from the regime while perhaps not openly resisting it. jonathan: valuable insight and perspective. cynthia hooper of the college of the holy cross. on the s&p we are down about 2%. down 2.5% on the nasdaq. the fx keeps drawing our attention back to it. dollar lire back through 15. the best and worst performing currencies, the turkish lira is the second worst performing currency of the year, -11%. you know what the second-best performing currency is this year after brazilian currency? tom: russian? jonathan: the russian ruble, stronger a little more than 80%. tom: the sri lankan prime minister resigns. of note as well. i love what doug kass says?

how about a global margin call? what are the trades out there right now exposed. jonathan: blowing up, perhaps. the nasdaq down 2.5%. the s&p -2%. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the story remains the same. strong labor market. >> i think it will weaken. this is why the fed needs to act. >> if the fed can navigate this path i think you'll see equity markets move higher. >> you have to give them credit for pivoting and they can pivot again. >> is a pivotal moment for fed policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: five straight weeks of losses. from new york city, good morning. live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down another 1.9%. tom: what we can say across three hours over the preshow preparation and starting surveillance this morning, it is a situation that