>> there is this growth can am drum with investors trying to figure out which is the most likely path from here. >> it is almost like all data is bad data. >> we see inflation peeking and coming down. >> we might be stuck in the path and the range. >> it is brutal and likely to remain brutal for a while. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio

alongside with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures posited by 1%. tom: a bear market and by the measurements and the draw down, we will get it up in a moment. you look at the events yesterday and into the weekend and it is just about reaffirming where are we and where are the central banks. a great lineup to give us perspective into the weekend. jonathan: we are on course for a six straight week of losses. a lot of notes on the south side asking one big question, have we seen capitulation? tom: i was watching the game and i think tottenham did well against arsenal and i missed a lot of the movement yesterday, but the fact is a bid today, but what is the confidence in the bid? i would suggest the changes is that the havens have clicked in a little bit. jonathan: we are super excited for the match review. we will stick to the markets right now.

this market heading south. big move, one whisker within a bear market. have we seen capitulation. they say that is what you sell what you love? lisa: we are not quite there because i talked about private equity and big tech and we have seen a huge selloff, but they are suggesting that it could go further. and then we did see outflows out of cash. this to me as one of the biggest notable features because that is not necessarily out of a desire to deploy that risk but to pay for even -- for either margin calls or to offset other issues. jonathan: i thought you might be implying that someone took a day off and there was outflows of cash out on that. lisa: to bet on that? you maybe want to touch on that? jonathan: or clean up the mess in twitter. we are downed 25%. elon musk putting this deal on ice. lisa: i do not know what to make of this because he was talking about perhaps he was mistaken that there were fewer bots than

previously thought as members of twitter, how could he not have understood that ended do diligence until now, how much does this violate laws and how much does he pray -- pay the breakup fee? tesla shares are actually doing well as people remove the potential for some reliability tied to twitter. jonathan: the numbers speak for themselves. big deal pricing agreement price is 5420 and we trade at 5490. tom: this guy plays with his own rules. i have no idea how gary fits with this and someone involved in the transaction he has every white -- right to question what he has to question. if you are a twitter shareholder your head has to be spinning. imagine how the employees feel. jonathan: he will be spending a that a bit more as he tries to run the company. as we look away from the news have we got the financing lined up. i keep seeing the reports change. lisa: the irony of this is that

we have a news article out last night talking about how he had found a way to get a loan, elon musk, without pinning the tesla shares up against it to face a margin card -- call with tesla shares and it seemed to be moving closer to a deal and now he seems to put it on ice and it is hard to understand the machinations both on the financing side and what he is going for. jonathan: based on the move we are seeing this morning is that elon musk is saying that the deal is on knifes and the market is behaving like it is off. lisa: if he is -- if he says it is off, how much more downside is there? jonathan: down 24%, it is not the overall market. we look at -- we look like this on the s&p, we have a little bounce on the nasdaq 100 up 1.6. from monday through thursday yields were lower. friday the yields are higher by five basis points to 28949 on the u.s. 10 year. lisa: this has been the biggest

weekly drop with a 10 year yield going back to march of 2020. to give you a sense of the size and scope it was the week of the growth scare, which seems to be the take away. a: 30 am u.s. import and export prices. last month it came in at the fastest pace going back more than a decade. this to me is fascinating the idea that we are seeing import prices climb even with the strong dollar because of oil and gas. how much does that start to come down and how much do we get those pressures alleviated as the u.s. imports more and more. university of michigan consumer sentiment survey, people have been gauging the trajectory of how consumers are feeling and does it translate to them spending less? we have a dynamic labor market and how much does that give people confidence versus higher prices and negative real incomes that they are earning? the latest fed speak, there has been so much. it has been just dramatic, one

speaker after another and jay powell just reiterating 50 basis point rate -- rate hike seem seville -- seem sufficient. now we hear from neel kashkari focusing on oil prices and how that features into inflation and loretta mester will be speaking at noon. how much do they reiterate the feeling that they are on a good path especially as we get hotter than expected prince of inflation? jonathan: fed speak of the week and i will not make that a thing. it came from president manley day at -- mary daly who spoke to bloomberg yesterday. take a listen to this. "i expect financial conditions to tighten more. i would like to see continued tightening of financial conditions. that would be consistent with bringing supply and demand back into balance." that is quite a quote for a market like this. tom: the best indicator is that michael rosenberg and his team, they invented the bloomberg financial conditions index which

is 11 variables moved into a soup that's measures of stresses in the system. we are out one standard deviation towards restriction on that measurement, so we are getting there quickly, we are getting the tightening of financial conditions while the fed the amazon. jonathan: we are not going to start fed speak of the week. lisa: i think we should. i think that would be great. honestly i think i should start that quietly. jonathan: the founder and ceo of macro risk advisors, we are seeing a ton of notes asking the same question, have we seen capitulation, are we there yet? >> we have to be working closer to it. i have been getting a lot of questions about the vix and the low 30's with some arguing that the vix should be higher than it is now. and i would say that the vix might be a little bit low relative to where it might be. we have one month to realize volatility with the s&p at 30.

to get the vix into the 40's, which would really throw into question if we have not seen capitulation you will need a couple of things. you will need 3% moves to become something closer to 4% on a more consistent basis, and then you will really have to activate some of the tail risks that even as there has been so much damage to price, the two price -- the true pricing of the tail, the lower left outcomes are not necessarily being contemplated and i would put two things in that category. of course we are talking about it, rates, how high they have to go in order to quell disinflation process. the challenge with inflation is that it is so misunderstood that the fed might need to overshoot in terms of rates. and that has everyone on the fed talking about financial conditions directly and that is not another way of saying that stock prices have to go lower in

value has to go higher. the other thing that i would point to is a risk in the markets is just the crypto space. you know, when you have something that is viewed as a pegged asset and it becomes untagged, -- unpegged, it brings a lot of skepticism and fear to light, and when fear dominates it reminds of option rate securities. i think we are close. there has been a lot of price damage but there are still tales that could be activated and it really comes down to price itself that could make things worse. jonathan: have you seen capitulation -- lisa: have using capitulation? dean: i do not think so. i think one of the outcomes that is the least contemplated is that the market neither goes up a lot or down a lot. it could be that we are just in a very bad sharp ratio set of

circumstances for a period of time. you might not lose a lot but you are absorbing this tremendous amount of volatility for taking risk in the u.s. equity market. i was looking at implied volatility for apple, amazon microsoft, and tesla. these are all above 40 and and tesla's case at 70. you do not want the leadership of the market to have option prices that are so high which speaks to the amount of uncertainty on the path forward. what i see potentially is a lot of shops, certainly some version of a tradable rally which we might be getting closer to but it is not a good, sharp ratio outcome for the market, and it comes back to you guys are talking about tesla and twitter, this very strange correlation between the two stocks. another strange correlation is between stock prices and bond prices. negatively correlated for the better part of the last two

decades, and at the last two months we are at positive 30 correlation between the slt and tlt, that is a tough background for the 60-40 portfolio. it is a risk accelerating instead of a d risk. jonathan: can i say congratulations on a call you made 12 months ago, i think we always are member the bad calls and let us remember -- remember a good call and i remember you saying something like inflation is transitory is a new subprime is contained and i remember sitting here and thinking that is a bit -- that is a big call. do you see it becoming as bad i do not know whether systemic risk would be this time around, but do you believe there is? dean: i think a lot of the bad has occurred and what i saw there was no forecast on inflation, i think it was to be humble about how little we know about inflation, but just to observe how decidedly financial market centric the fed policies were and that we had basically

an all-time high in stock prices and bond prices at the same time and the underlying force was the fed and that you had deterioration in the bond market via inflation fundamentals moving against nominal bond yields. that was the observation. i think we are pretty far through, i would say the damage. damage is done and the pricing reflects the fed that is going to do a lot. the questions here are again, given how little we understand about inflation, is it set to be very high going forward. it will come down but it will stay in the three to 4% range for some time. is a 2% target a real target? if it is that will be a real problem for the equity market to get from three to two would sacrifice a lot of risk asset dynamics. jonathan: wonderful to catch up with you. it was an interview with

chairman pal yesterday and if you go through the transcript of it the amount of times he talks about two, not three or four, 2% inflation, it just comes up repeatedly, almost every time he speaks. tom: this is the arch research contemplation into the month of june, what is the new level and the great fear out there is that we run a victory lap heading back to 4% inflation, but for all of the institutions not just for the central bank, i would suggest 4% inflation is absolutely unacceptable. jonathan: over at bank of america they put out a note every friday and there are a couple of lines that jump off the page to me and this is the one that jumped off this morning. "market stop panicking when policymakers start panicking and policy panic is inflation and that is wall street negative." lisa: try to wrap your head around that. right now policymakers, if they panic what do they do?

they go against the market even more. jonathan: futures posited by about 1% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq 100 up by 1.5%. tom: take it out please, i am deleting spam accounts for my twitter account. jonathan: what are you doing, blocking them? tom: i am blocking the spam accounts. jonathan: i cannot wait for the next segment. ♪

as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.

>> families are struggling to pay higher prices at the pump, oil and gas companies are recording graph -- record profits with the seven largest oil companies announcing buybacks that could total $41 billion this year alone. again and again we see gas prices rise when the price of oil drops and price gouging needs to be stopped. jonathan: speaker pelosi just yesterday. on politicians speak they talk about price gouging and when you speak to the experts they are talking about refining capacity, two very different conversations it seems between the oil patch and the people who follow that closely, and washington, d.c.. tom: it will be interesting on the sunday talk shows. this is going to be really interesting to see if the democratic party, they are gouging us tone, if it picks up

residence, i do not know. i remember this from decades ago i really wonder how it would go. jonathan: i think the part it is resonating with the base but that is not going to be enough. jp morgan saying moments ago, low capacity implies a risk p.m. -- premium of $30 and the price is above $1.25. tom: we are nowhere mathematically near -- near catharsis. three standard deviations on the vix. back at the financial crisis was a 41.42 level and we are miles away from the real sweat. jonathan: futures up 1% on the s&p. tom: a two hour conversation is what they deserve and emily wilkinson -- is in washington and maria is in germany. i cannot pronounce it but i hope that i came close. they are in search of unity, are the germans able to spell unity

this weekend? maria: yes. and it is a key point because we are seeing that the longer the war drags on it becomes very difficult to maintain this unity. when you look at the question of oil, the g7 agreed a week ago that they will phase it out. having said that when you look the europeans they are not able to get the deal through the finish line so essentially you have the italians, french, and the germans agreeing to something on paper that the e.u. cannot follow through. and there is the economic repercussions that will seep into all of this. the european union will be deeply affected. yes on the political front they say it is about unity and they want to help ukraine when the war and they now say that this is about winning, it is victory for ukraine, but nonetheless we are seeing cracks. tom: this is right where i

wanted to go. the zeitgeist in america is ukraine is winning and you know better than i do. really the images of the bridges across that river taken out almost looked out of the movies. why are they dillydallying around if ukraine appears to have the upper hand at least for now? maria: what you see is that the ukrainians have incredible until. we have talked about this before and a lot of this being fed by the united states. they fight lean and smart, but if they want to win they need the weapons and they have made that clear. we will do the fighting and it is clear that no one will come to the rescue and nato is not an option but what if we want to stay competitive they need the weapons. this is a country that on a monthly what -- basis is bleeding cash and this is hard cash going forward five to $7 billion to pay basic expenses and the weapons they cannot pay for them so they need allies to

supply them. in many ways this is a war that is very complicated for the russians it is approaching the 80 day mark and you are seeing, this is interesting that those threats yesterday from the russians to finland about joining nato, a lot of officials are telling me they cannot even win in ukraine or -- what about a war two fronts? lisa: are there any talk -- is there any talk about distancing the u.s. from finland and sweden joining nato given that it will increase tensions in russia? maria: to a certain extent -- emily: to a certain extent, the u.s. is becoming less cautious. at the beginning we were doing things that we were cautious to do. tom is right, the zeitgeist in the u.s. and washington, d.c. is that ukraine will be able to ultimately declare some victory in some way shape or form. to do that they will need

funding and that has been the big pressure in washington this week, moving the 40 billion bollard funding to ukraine. you saw the house move in a bipartisan manner. the senate wanted to get it done and you saw mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer pushing for this bill to go through, in the senate if you want things to move fast everybody needs to be on board and senator rand paul from kentucky blocks the quicker movement because of concerns about the price is. that bill will still be able to pass that it will not be able to do so until mid next week getting you really close to the may 19 cut off at which the white house is saying that they will not have additional funding reserves that they could send along to ukraine. they are almost out of that money and they need it to move now with a lot of urgency. jonathan: thank you. emily wilkins alongside of marina. if you are turning in we have a bounce on equities up 1% on the s&p 500. if you want a single name, one tweet moves a stock of twitter

by about 18%. that comes from elon musk. the twitter deal is temporarily on hold pending details if spam and fake accounts represent less than 5% of users. tom: this story tires me to be honest, but i will say if this is a question now, why wasn't it a question two or three weeks ago? because as a heavy twitter users i have lived spam accounts, i think it is delusional to think they are 5%, but so what, this issue should've been brought up weeks ago. jonathan: i think many people would agree and we have to be careful not to get wrapped up in the noise of the morning and focus on the stuff that matters, you have the financing lined up. something that elon musk has signed off on that means that if he wants to, even if he gets through the issue that he is ready to close a deal.

lisa: he has talked about 7.1 billion dollars in other equity financing commitment from other investors any that he has to account for the rest and he is concerned clearly about tying tesla shares to any loan or financing agreement and there is a larger issue which is the idea of one person tweeting 13 -- one thing and being able to so dramatically move the market cap of a $35 billion company. that to me brings a lot of attention to just a focus on this particular individual. jonathan: hard to wrap your head around, the curse of twitter is twitter itself. tom: it is simple. tesla has cratered. that is all this -- that is all that this is about. jonathan: tesla is heading the other way this morning. i suggest that is a good reason. up 1% on the s&p and the nasdaq 1.6. this is bloomberg. ♪

if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, that's decision tech. but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. get $400 off an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit your xfinity store and talk to our switch squad today.

jonathan: we are on course for a sixth week of losses on the is a b 500, equaling -- s&p 500 index, equaling back to a prev ious year. 1.6 percent on the nasdaq, we

will talk about tech later. talk about the bond market moves. your 10 year yield work monday through thursday, four straight days of yields heading south. topped out earlier in the week, yields a little higher. they as x -- the sfx indicates this could go down. foreign-exchange, we have been waiting, euro-dollar, 103. a bounce today but think about these levels. one of 3.88 was the low. we go all the way back to 2003 for the slow. tom: i think the last couple of days have been eventful. the number one thing i would say is it is a haven mood -- move in stronger swiss versus the beleaguered euro.

the interview with the champs, sterling flat on his back, that can help the euro. jonathan: there's a reason i put these currencies together, these other countries, the euro zone -- not a country, i know -- the u.k., central banks with a weakness. the ecb might have to do this. that is why we are seeing currency weakness. june for the ecb, a big deal. tom: and it is a complex political deal as well. i don't want to pontificate on the until we get closer to it. a huge movable fee for christine lagarde. jonathan: every move lower, we have seen pair. tom: right now we are with alix webb, a quicktake reporter. excited. -- encyclopedic with this

technology. to me, alex webb is more on tesla. in my reading of tesla, you mentioned the 700 number on a margin call on tesla. maybe it's 500, maybe 700, the answer with the 41% drawdown is tesla is very. is the announcement about twitter or mr. musk and tesla? alix: it could be any number of things. we have seen tesla shares close about 727 yesterday. if 700 is the margin core point, they are knocking on the door that. you could also say maybe it is testing where the natural twitter share price should be for this bid. this calls down 18%, in the 30's now, and the final possibility is that yuan is being sarcastic. -- fillon is being sarcastic.

he is saying i will put this on hold because of the basis point. does not come across in tweets. jonathan: they are asking you to work out what someone is thinking. that is impossible below this focus on the deal. do we know whether the financing is lined up among the structure, has elon musk signed off on anything to go and close this deal if he wants to? alix: we don't know the financing is in place and that is key. investors are looking at that. they are hearing what elon says at a conference earlier this week where he said i don't know i'm going to be able to complete this deal. and you see where the sharepoint landed even before the tweet is morning. last night it closed at $45, a huge spread to the $54 .2 since -- 54.20 offer price. investors are skittish about

this deal going through so any signs that it may not is russia like the way we see it. lisa: what is the pentyl -- penalty if he walks away? alix: that is something though board was able to instruct -- alex: that is what the board was able to extract. that for twitter is meaningful. they pay three to $4 billion in operating profit each year. if elon is complaining about the spambot problem, they can go a long way to fixing that. it might be returned to shareholders, but it is a big chunk of change for twitter if not for elon musk himself. jonathan: alex webb, thank you. a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks in the market and there has been a degree twitter stock relative to other tech names and we are finding out what this is worth in this market. elon musk would not be the first

walking away from a deal if he does, he would not be the first of the bag -- back of the big market. covid happens, the lockdown happened, there was a deal that went into shock -- shut down. they turned around and said maybe we need to rethink the price. i wonder how much of this is going on. it is difficult to talk about this because you are asking people to work out with someone is thinking -- what summit is leaking. lisa: when musk came out with his first proposal, people thought it was high for each share. the fact that board members took it without looking for competing offers also sent a strong message. could he be having, not buyer's remorse, but remorse for the bid in terms of how big it was? jonathan: down 20% in the premarket, the agreed deal was 5420. -- 54.20.

tom: megan is with us now from kennedy school at harvard. you know the deal, the peterson institute has suggested the new 2% is 3%, hoping we are trying to get back to 4%. how important is the discussion of 2%, 3%, 4% is the new level of inflation? >> i don't think it is that important. people have been saying the fed should be targeting 3% inflation all along. the point is not whether it is 2, 3 or four, it is whether it is stable. the path is most important, the fed would be fine with three or 4% inflation by the end of the year but i don't think we will get there yet. we might have to wait until next year. but it is the path there, as long as inflation rotations remain anchored, i think the fed is ok with overshooting the

target by that much. there is not ok with what we have now. tom: how much of that glide path is linked to the glide path of a slowdown in economic growth? megan: they are clearly linked and there are debates of whether inflation is higher because of demand or supply side factors. fundamental -- economists cannot agree on that. partly because we've never done this before, but also it is demand relative to supply and supply relative to demand. if we have a weaker economy, that undermines demand and can take some of the heat off inflation. that is pretty much all the fed has to work with. the fed can't do much about supply-side actions and i tend to think the supply side factors are overwhelming demand side factors on inflation right now. we can engage in what economists call aggregate demand management, killing off demand. that is why everyone is worried

about fed actions resulting in recession. lisa: if you are talking about the majority of inflation coming from the supply side, and how strong those pressures are, does the fed have to spur a recession to fight inflation? i ask because it is a delicate issue a lot of fed officials are trying to dance around. megan: it may have to. the fed can't do anything about the supply side factors, all it can do is tinker with demand. we are out of whack between the two. the fed will have to cool off demand and of course central banking tools are not precise. they kick in with long-term variable legs. the fed can't tweak this perfectly, it may hike too much a push us to recession. that is what usually happens. the hope is the fed can generate some kind of soft landing. i would say this is going to be hard. the fed is trying to thread a

needle wearing oven mitts blindfolded. lisa: we have not seen the repricing to the same degree in credit as we have in equities. this is interesting because a lot of people look at credit as the canary in the coal mine. how concerned are you about some crisis in terms of the next couple of months or year because you are getting the growth slowdown and rates that are higher? megan: i am not that worried about it. for the pandemic, i was worried about corporate leverage in the u.s. and the fed actions in response to the pandemic super charged that. companies have built up huge cash positions. i think they have a wild to burn through that before we need to worry about credit and devotes that end up being cascading defaults prompting a recession. we are a long way off from that. i'm not concerned. i think effect was to happen, if there were signs that was

coming, i think the fed would about-face. and there it still exists. the fed is fine watching equity markets fall right now. that is not systemic. if we have is locations in the credit market, that would get their attention. jonathan: i wrote down that thing about the needle with the oven mitts blind folded. lisa: it sounds like my kids trying to cook. jonathan: on inflation, this is important, the driver of inflation has switched from supply chain issues or the surgeon post-pandemic demand to the tightness of the labor market can only be solved by weaker labor market data. socgen earlier this morning. tom: i agree. i started percolating -- it's already percolating a few weeks ago on the labor market. i have not seen a marked out yet, maybe that awaits the

weekend research notes. jonathan: have you had his cooking? lisa: he is good. you say not bad. jonathan: [indiscernible] tom: a swanson tv dinner, the differential between--and 375. i ticket out of the aluminum. jonathan: call it -- tom: you don't know what a swanson tv dinner is. jonathan: we have talked about it. up 1.1 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date on news around the world with first world news -- first word news, the elon musk deal with twitter is on hold. he announced the delay, he is waiting for details supporting

the calculation that span the spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of users. european union nations say it may be time to delay a push to ban russian oil. they can't persuade hungry to back the import -- embargo. this chancellor says the exit settlement in northern ireland is causing economic and political harm. he was asked whether the u.k. would take action on its own. >> no decision has been taken. our preference has been to have a negotiated settlement and in the foreign secretary continues to engage with counterparts in europe about how we can find resolution to some of the real challenges the protocol is causing. laura: the comments are an attempt to align himself with boris johnson after a report of a rift. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we know we are not in the 90's anymore. we are dealing with higher inflation, much higher inflation volatility and uncertainty on monetary policy. even the growth picture is uncertain. jonathan: a tough week in the market, that was the managing director for portfolio strategy at goldman sachs. we asked whether this was a bubble bursting and he said it was a valuation rereading. futures s&p up 1%, the nasdaq up 1.7. the euro-dollar a small bounce,

103.8 two. levels we have not seen in 20 years on euro-dollar. tom: i had to take a sip of tang, i'm thinking of the account that has had a valuation sales account. what do you think here? what is the key level? i think it is before parity. jonathan: it was one of 3.88, that was the previous low in 2016. the next step is the ecb and how present the guard guides us through the rest of the year and how much tightening they can deliver given what we expect to happen to the economy. tom: stephen england is with us, one of the best on cross rates, he is with the standard chartered banks. it's cut to the haven dynamic. if i look at safe havens in the last two days picking up spark with stronger swiss franc against euro, what do the tea leaves indicate? >> i think you want to be

careful about which safe haven you choose. the dollar has been the most reliable safe haven. you get it with the yen working when the risk of fraud is down, so when the world is concerned economies are falling apart and activity is slowing, yields come off and they come into the picture. when the fear is what central banks will do to get inflation down, they are worthless. jonathan: i want to build on this. this is an important place to start. you came into this quarter in a position where others were not. you don't believe the fed can take it as far as other people think. you expect frontloading but you don't think after that we go much further. can you take the data of this year -- week and tell me why the modest comfort looking about and why you believe that is the way forward this fed question mark -- fed?

unique perspective. steven: you have to take a deep breath. if inflation for all goods and services going up at same amount, say the headlines, .6, there is no place to hide. when you have a number like this week and it is concentrated, we know those are stretched already and we understand supply chains and it's not going to get fixed immediately but it will get fixed when it is airfares, pushed by oil and reopening. hotels, the same issue. you say ok, is that typical or is that isolated and everything else is more moderate? if you take those components out, you see is a slow drift downward, too slow for the fed to change their tone. but if there is an indication

that the center of gravity, it is beginning to shift lower. lisa: if we look what is going on with ecb, there damage if they do a debit they don't with the euro. -- damned if they do or don't with the euro. is there the same dynamic in the opposite direction for the federal reserve and the u.s. dollar, and if the fed does back away as you expect, that will be dollar positive or more dollar strength because it will mean there can be a prolonged and easier downturn. a more prolonged recovery and easier downturn, i should specify. steven: all of the stuff we like about asset markets equity going up, commodity prices firm, but it's all correlated with risk appetite. but dollar weakness is as well. i would not want to bet that the euro-dollar would stay at 103.

if the fed is right, we will not go as far as you think. it makes a big difference but the ecb has to step up to the plate as well. if we are right, we will see dollar weakness as the market backs away from the more hawkish pricing we still see in rates markets. lisa: what happens if they say actually we don't agree with you and we are going to keep going, considering the fact we see inflation continuing to be pretty hot? what happens with the dollar, do we see parity, lower or weaker with the euro? steven: that is when we talk seriously about parity. they are the strongest indicators for the dollar rate going up and equity markets, asset markets under pressure. the only offset would be that the ecb has been passive until now. almost deliberately sending

ambiguous signals about what their intentions are. were they to say we are the ecb, we target inflation, we are going to do this, that would be enough. i think they would regain some credibility. tom: where is the big figure trey radel peshmerga there is so much going on and so much volatility, where is the pear where i can make some money? steven: that is hard to say. there is no sign yet that we are at the bottom in terms of sentiment. so we could go lower. but if you ask me what is most in the price, i think given where the economies are doing fine and they are in real interest rates that have matched that of the u.s., terms of trade are great, it is to settle down. it is over 30 where can come back with a normal rating. jonathan: awesome to catch up,

great work, i have enjoyed the read. steven englander, bloomberg intelligence is just out on a nice set of stats, 39% of the s&p is down 20% plus since the market peak. versus 50% in the last three major selloffs in 2011, 2015, 2018. financial staples are all holding up better than usual. problem with the market is that good news or bad news, good news for the recipient see -- recipients and bad news for the whole market. tom: when hits immediately is the in between and maybe that is where we are. i'm going to save the three standard deviation vicks as he alluded to his way out. it is 41 of 42 and some could argue plus or minus a couple points. we are nowhere near catharsis. jonathan: the problem is the

index level where we have seen the collection for some of the big names, down almost 20%. lisa: a bloomberg opinion writer put out a piece about how some of the biggest losers have been the haven. this undermines a lot come out you think something is safe and good value and it is not. that is where crises occur. i what point does that have a trickle out effect? jonathan: that is always the way, think to housing and government debt in the european debt crisis. the biggest risk is where people believe there is the most safety. futures up by 1.1 percent on the s&p, yields higher by five basis points on the 10 year, 289.49. -- 2.8949. this is bloomberg. ♪

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

lisa: -- >> there is a growth conundrum, investors trying to figure out what is the most likely. >> it is all bad data is days. >> we need to see english coming down. >> it is longer in the range. >> it has been brutal and likely to remain brutal for a while. >>