>> i think we are in the final stage of what will be a bear

market. >> the market is on edge and they are running to safety. >> we are entering into a challenging inflation time. >> we know growth is likely to slow down over the next few years. >> is it a soft landing? is it stagflation? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. we stagger to friday, may be into the month of june. listen to the people on the show opener, although them, even gabriel santos at j.p. morgan, doom and gloom. jonathan: we still have two weeks of may. it has gotten that bad. equities right now about 45% on the s&p 500. fed coming to the rescue. we have heard from so many fed

speakers, going back to the words of daly, i would like to see continued tightening. this is a feature, that is the goal. tom: we will talk to a stabbing market expert in a moment, but the major shift this week is nobody is talking about getting inflation back to 2%, it is somewhere up there and there is a mystery to the glide path of the successful fed. jonathan: it is not where it peaks, it is where it will stabilize and how much work the fed will have to do after that. august will be important. we have talked about that a lot. that is when the fed gets to reassess. they have several prints in their back pocket. how much further beyond neutral might the fed have to go? tom: inside baseball, what did we learn from the auctions of this week? seriously, what did we learn about the price down, yielded up? lisa: the real debate is going on with rate fears versus growth

fears, growth fears taking the upper hand. this week it was probably that we will not be out of this push and pull environment for a while. this could be a choppy market. people say, what if we see things flatlined, but under the surface get this turn every day, up and down? it is uncomfortable for a traitor to be in. tom: i will have to promote jonathan ferro's show, really yield. look for that -- real yield. look for that. how can i look for in adjusted inflation yield? jonathan: they are just about positive right now. 26 basis points on the 10 year. that has not been the story, it has been negative real yields. only just in the positive and look at the pain it is already causing. that is a problem. we have been 75 basis points of heights -- hikes. qe has not even started. i understand the fed's path,

what it might be in the future, but to see this much too soon before qe has he been kicked in. tom: i am buying drinks this afternoon. we just got a 121 handle on sterling. inside baseball, that is the shock of the week. jonathan: the bank of england is facing something a lot of people are faring the federal have to face down the road, that they have to hike into economic weakness. so we see interest rate hikes, but a weaker currency in england. the prospect of ecb rate hikes, but it weaker currency. this is a new dynamic in developed markets. tom: dxy at 104. sterling, 122.01 right now and more important to me is watching swiss franc strength in the last few days. jonathan: futures are up 55 on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 is up by two full

percentage points. looking for a strong finish to an ugly week. the 291 on a 10 year. you mentioned foreign-exchange. 107.76 on crude. it's up 1.5% on the day. tom: brent crude is getting my attention. if you are at home afraid to open the envelopes from your investment houses, this is not only the interview of the day, but the interview of the week. jim paulsen's chief investment strategist at leuthold weeden capital. he writes a complete note up and down about the courage to stay in the market. how and nine at 100% in cash right now? jim: i wish i had been all year. [laughter] i thought this would bottom out in march, so i am a little gun shy too. i look at this a little differently.

everyone is looking at it like is they say cycle indian bear market coming? there's so many issues. but i look at this more like a normal correction that generally occurs in the second year of a bull market. that happened in 1983. in 1993, 1994. mainly for the same reasons. at that point the economy picks up, inflation becomes an issue, the fed starts to tighten, rates go up and people are concerned. the market often has a rough year, ending in a nasty correction. this one is still a lot like the other ones. and there is always great fear in that moment, which there is today, but i think that the fears we have today are tied to one thing, inflation. that is the elephant in the room. all the fears about how high yields have to go, how many times the fed will have to raise

rates, how much behind the curve they are, whether they will have a policy blender, ultimately a recession, those are all tied to the inflation rate. and i think there is growing evidence it peaked in march and it will continue to moderate through the rest of the year. and if we get it down to like 6%, i think people will calm down a fair amount. the history of inflation spikes, the 70's were a little different, but the history of inflation spikes in the u.s., almost all of them are not rounding tops, most are spike tops and then they come down quite quickly. i think this could be similar. jonathan: can you help me understand your definition of a correction and a bear market? what is the distinction? jim: there's the 20% put out there, i do not even know where it came from really. the difference between 20.1 and

19.1. jonathan: we were basically there yesterday. we would've had headlines all over the place bear market, if we had closed there. but massive names are down by more than 20% from the highs of the last 52 weeks. so what is the difference? jim: to me it is not. to me, the difference is not so much how much of the market falls, but is it a recovery ending event? is it down because we will have a recession? which means it could go down further. or is it down because it is a corrective force in the market against rising fundamentals? i would be in the latter camp. i see economic growth of slowing, which it's slowing to a healthy rate that' probably going tos be 3% or so in real terms in the latter half of this year. and that is still may be 50%

stronger than what we have lied -- had the last 10 or 15 years. we created over 500,000 jobs a month in the first four months of this year, leading indicators are still rising, profits are going up, the profit estimates are going up. junk spreads have come up little bit, but they are still pretty tight. i do not see the recession forced. if i do not see -- force. if i do not see that, and think it is a correction. lisa: it has been specific in terms of the stocks that have gotten pummeled. the nasdaq is already in a bear market. this week alone, over $1 trillion wiped away. how much of the bubble has burst and how much has legs in terms of what is going on with china supply chain and semi conductor prices going up? jim: i think the correction has done a lot of what corrections do, if you think about an

overall. you know, we have taken a a lot of the leadership concentration out of this market already. the tech leadership has come down a lot. when you look at the -- weigh ting, it is down to 9%. our client has given up its performance, now back to where it was in 2017. the weighting of the tech sector has come off, you know, a lot already. so i think a lot of the leadership concentration is gone. we have revalued the stock market in a big way. the s&p will be close to dropping below 17 times earnings, down significantly from what it was. we have now paused the rate route for the last few weeks. that often happens at lows. finally, we scared the heebie-jeebies out of us. everybody is nervous. and that is what it does.

it beats down that positive sentiment. all you see is negative headlines. to me, really great fear on main street, on wall street, combined with i think ongoing good fundamentals, including strong balance sheets in the household sector, corporate sector in banking industry -- i think that is a dynamite combination to buy on rather than turn and run. jonathan: it is a different perspective. the biggest difference here, he said cycle ending, is it a head fake? or something much worse? lisa: does that have to be cycle ending in order to get the results the fed is going for, which is more inflation? that is the conundrum people are dealing with. jonathan: bloomberg came out with numbers on the s&p 500 on this, when the s&p 500 is down

20%, which defines a bear market for many people, the last 14 times, in only two of those episodes did the american economy not go into a recession in the use -- in those years. futures are up. the nasdaq is up by 1.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: news from around the world. shares of twitter are in a tailspin, elon musk saying his takeover of the company is on hold until he gets more information about the proportion of fake accounts. fake accounts makeup less than 5% of users, twitter says. elon musk says he is still committed to the deal. the senate was forced to postpone final passage on a $40

billion ukraine aid package after republican senators refused to allow votes. paul is saying they must appoint an official with oversight powers for the eu. they will vote on it next week. and jerome powell has reaffirmed his plan for raising interest rates to fight inflation. powell says the central bank is likely to raise rates by a half percentage point each of the next two meetings. he pushed back on speculation the fed is considering a 75 basis point move, however. a wave of covid making its way across the u.s. those who have alleviated the virus are falling ill and others are catching covid for the second, third or fourth time. still, the rise of at-home tests has made keeping accurate counts impossible. experts say it is difficult to know what the next few months will bring. simpson in talks with clients --

samsung is in talks with tmc, it will be passing on material costs, many more pressure on those who are making game consoles and cell phones. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> a new political impetus will be provided, and i am sure we will have an agreement. we need this and we will have it, because we need to get rid of the oil dependency on russia. jonathan: the eu foreign policy chief there. good morning. futures are up by 1.5% on the nasdaq. yields are higher by five or six basis points. 209.58 on the 10 year.

and let's take a look at this open that is twitter, the stock down by 11%. it was down by 25% at one point off of the back of a couple tweets. "the leader deal -- twitter deal is on hold. spent accounts represent about 5% of users." then elon musk says, "still committed." tom: can i suggest, since he is the one going after the company, he is allowed to make these statements. it's not like he is breaking sec law or anything. jonathan: i will not get involved and what he is allowed to do. if you have an agreement with the company, you do your due diligence. that is what he is trying to figure out. tom: to say the least. moving into the summer, it is a joy to speak to angela stent,

author of my book of the year, "putin's world." it's definitive. professor, thank you for joining us today. here's what wikipedia says about putin's health. these claims are speculative animated by those who are not medical professionals. so, i remember you on dr. gilder a few years ago. how is putin's health. angela: good morning. i am not a medical doctor. it is speculation. if you saw him on monday, during the rally commemorating the anniversary of defeating the nazis, he did not look quite as robust as he has done on previous occasions. his speech was very short. we all expected something longer. i mean, it was aggressive, but it was kind of toned down and did not make any news, like

people thought he would. but it is all speculation. i have seen on twitter many people claiming to be medical professionals who diagnosed him with a large number of ailments, but we do not know the truth. tom: you have studied napoleon to moscow, hitler's to moscow, and now putin to kyiv. as his military overextended? -- is his military overextended? angela: i think so. they have taken territory in the past few weeks and they are grinding on just as brutally, but one what i thought they would've been able to take more territory. you have this dynamic stalemate now. the russians take territory, the ukrainians push them back. ukrainians are pushing them back now from the second largest city in the south. they are not performing as well as people thought they would, but they still have the manpower and firepower, so they will

continue this grinding war i guess as long as they can until they achieve some of their objectives. lisa: how much raw equipment do they have left that does not need repairs? people have been talking about sanctions and how it would prevent imports of some of the key aspects, for example, tanks or to fix other issues or planes -- how much is it starting to bite? angela: it is starting to bite. they still have equipment, but it is not in great shape, so it will get more challenging for them going forward. lisa: with respect to gas and oil, i want to move to that point because we are hearing about ongoing negotiations in europe, how would you characterize them? there is uncertainty on what they are planning to do, what groundwork is getting laid. how realistic is it to see a shift away from russian gas in the near future? angela: on the oil, they are

still arguing within the eu about a total cut off, particularly with hungary as the holdout. they do not want to stop importing russian oil because it would be devastating further economy. they will continue negotiations and trying to compromise. and with gas, it is challenging. the germans have said that they do want to get off imports of russian gas, but they cannot do it tomorrow or even in six months, it will take a longer time. the russians are threatening cutting off the gas supplies already. so that is a messy set of negotiations. but they are continuing to try to figure out how best europe can queen itself off of russian energy, but it will still take time. tom: years ago i remember asking marshall this question, so let me ask the same to you, we were wrong, wrong, wrong about the strength in our intelligence on the soviet union, do you believe

we have a good understanding of the strength of the russian army, the russian military complex, including the navy? angela: i think we overestimated the strength of the russian military, just as putin did. our intelligence services have even been surprised about how badly they have done. maybe we did not have insight into the impact of this pervasive corruption, where a lot of the money that was supposed to go to training and building up the army is lining people's pockets. and maybe we did not understand that, and now we are trying to reassess our previous assessments of the russian military and perhaps downgrade them. it is natural that any intelligence agency will work -- look at the worst case scenario, and therefore they probably did underestimate -- overestimate what the russians are trying to accomplish to do. jonathan: angela, thank you.

the risk is this goes on longer than people anticipated. and that the electorate has the support for government and officials coming forward from here to carry on what they have been doing, that wanes somewhat as the economic pain is driven home a lot more. tom: again, it is a week by week thing and we are getting long in the tooth here, but this is true of so many wars. most start out with a short-term framework. and then it changes. we are on the cusp of that, and then it changes. jonathan: it is a tragedy. and it is going on longer than people hoped. lisa: one tragic picture after another, and headline. the ramifications of the global economy, to put this into perspective -- we talked about oil and gas, but food prices continue to climb. people have been talking about how the weather has not be conducive to crop output. this will come to bite. it already has any major way.

jonathan: scott, thank you for watching, he says, on session and the recession debate, interesting the fed has never been able to reduce inflation by more than 2% without inducing a recession. that is the ultimate fear people have. tom: that is well said, it is the ultimate fear. and it is out there right now. i have been looking at secondary and tangential ideas at that really need to be watched. like chairman powell, we are all data-dependent. jonathan: futures are up. the nasdaq up by 1.94%. you have a bounce. 289.67. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ jonathan: going into the weekend, on the s&p, futures positive, positive 1.36% on the nasdaq 100. yields higher by five basis points. a bit of economic data coming up through today, including the university of michigan consumer sentiment.

looking forward to that data. onto next week on the 17th, retail sales in america. the big one i think to look forward to. tom: i am going to go back to 1. 2187 on sterling. sterling cannot get a bid. jonathan: it is the hangover from last week, the hangover from last week. it has been dreadful. tom: we are thrilled to bring you robin from the university of chicago, a former reserve bank of india governor, but also one of the most prescient students of american culture and our future. we are thrilled that he could join bloomberg this morning. i want to go back to 2012 in your postmortem on the corporation and finance where you talked about the near-death experience of 2008. how close are we to that now

when you look at the unit challenges every central bank has, including the work at the bank of india? how close are we to a 2022 near-death experience? >> well, every episode is different, of course. i think we are not as fearful of the banking sector this time because of substantially more capital in that sector. what is less known is what happens in the shadow banking system, the cryptos, the finance companies, the various funds. and what has happened over the last 10 years is we have had very easy money. very easy money means leverage. very easy money means a dependence on liquidity, and a dependence on being able to rollover stuff. the big unknown is how much of

the financial sector is actually going to have problems as rates go up, as rollovers become more difficult. we saw that happening to stable coins. what else is waiting out there? tom: what is so important is the university of chicago's intellectual foundation in the leadership on the breaking of inflation by paul volcker a few decades ago. i know history does not repeat but what are the methods we need to know to break disinflation? >> paul volcker used a sledgehammer, right. he essentially created the double-dip recession in order to squeeze out inflation. we hope it does not come to that this time. nevertheless, i think the message from volcker is as

inflation gets legs, as it picks up, as it spreads across the world, you have to take strong medicine. that means raising rates typically a percentage point or two above the prevailing inflation rate. right now, we are so far from it. now, the good news, i think, is when you look at inflation expectations over the last few days, they seem to have come down. people think the fed is series. the markets may not be perfectly right, but they certainly think the fed has a chance now. you look at five-year forward expectations, they have gone up to 2.5%, they are back down to 2.3% now. there is something here suggesting the market believes the fed is serious. lisa: you are talking about the concern about financial stability, as well as this belief that the fed can bring down inflation, that they will go ahead and do that. in some ways, does the fed get

more conviction to go faster and more from the fact that the disruptions, whether it's in the stable coins, whether it's the fact that we have seen mass and amounts of pain in the tech sector, that we have had not had a wholesale market collapse in some of the shadow banking sectors, does that give the fed more confidence? >> i think it does. i also do think that, you know, the fact that the market was not reacting earlier in the year to anticipation that the fed would do something, certainly into late last year and early this year, that was a source of concern. everybody knew the fed had to start raising rates. you know, you wanted some of the sort of umph behind the market to die down. now, that has happened. it has not resulted in a wholesale collapse. it has been steady declines. that is not a bad thing.

of course, the fed is weary. it does not want to cause -- is wary. it does not want to cause a market collapse. if it does happen, it may have to rethink its strategy. steady decline is not a bad thing for the fed. lisa: the great fed conundrum is just how much growth has to come down in order to meet their goal of bringing down inflation in light of some of the supply chain disruptions, the supply-side issues that have really caused this. where do you weigh in on this as a former central banker, as a former head of a central bank? do you think it's worth it to curtail employment, to potentially send the employment into a recession if that's what it takes to bring down inflation? >> there are two sources of concern. one is that inflationary expectations get more entrenched as you see higher inflation. that translates into workers demanding higher wages, and you get the wage price spiral,

workers demanding higher wages, causing higher inflation, causing them to demand more. now, there are two ways to break this. one is to bring down inflation so expectations come down. the other is to take some of the heat off the labor market, to create some slack so that workers now say, well, maybe inflation has gone up, but i would rather prefer having my job than going out demanding a wage hike. i think you can work on both. now, i think the possibility of having a softer landing is certainly one that has been talked about a lot. an increase in labor supply as covid fears come down, but importantly, immigrationas -- as immigration picks up and floods lower end with a few more people taking the heat off the labor market, and that can translate upwards. i think these are things that take time.

i think the fed has to act to show that it is serious and hope that these forces sort of kick in down the line and prevent that recession from necessarily happening. tom: very important here, your book was one of my books of the summer. you talked about the elites of america leaving the community behind. give us an update. i don't think it is that pretty, is it? >> it is not. my big worry is that we have spent $6 trillion, but a lot of it was income support and not so much on structural reforms that would strengthen the capacity of those communities that are falling behind. their capacity to earn a stronger living, to have stronger institutions. now, i think we have a chance. i think with the increase in technology, the ability to work from home that we have learned during the pandemic, may be economic opportunity can spread more widely, that people in

skilled services do not have to go into the big city every day, they can stay in more remote places, they can fertilize those places with their capabilities, incomes, and you get a spreading of economic activity. but we have to work on this. we have to do far more. i think if we do more, it will reduce some of the divide that plagues not just the united states, but almost every industrial country. we do have to build up elsewhere, level up, so to speak. jonathan: i always enjoy listening to you. thanks for being with us. in the next hour, fantastic lineup, mohamed el-erian in the studio for the hour, alongside james athey of aberdeen, sarah hunt, and we will catch up with michael nathanson on the whipsaw, the volatility we see in twitter start this morning. tom: you wonder what the next

announcement will be from elon musk. his stock went down, stock went up, now what? jonathan: committed to the acquisition is what he said this morning. lisa: maybe that will be what he tweets. we don't know what's going to necessarily come. tom: can you say hi to mohamed el-erian for me? jonathan: we have about a minute, do you want to do the review you have been desperate to do the whole morning? tom: they look destined. explain if you lose a person, it's not like in hockey where you lose someone and you can replace them. a red card means bye-bye, right? jonathan: that means you are down 10 men from 11. tom: how often does a 10 man team compete with 11? i was at antropov arms

afterwards. jonathan: you are researching the bars and pubs in north london after the game? tom: it is a bit farther away. jonathan: have you made your choice? you have got your favorite pub from when you first make it? tom: you have helped me a lot on this. jonathan: that's what i'm here for. are you coming to this, t.k.'s first game? lisa: i am looking at you. honestly, i like to leave you guys to have your -- jonathan: what did he call it, your boy chat? lisa: lisa -- tom: lisa, you can bring your phone and you can look at your bloomberg worksheet. lisa: i love it. i used to play soccer. i enjoy it and i call it soccer because i am, well. jonathan: bloomberg style, just to clarify, is now football,

unless you are talking about major league soccer played in america. everywhere else, we refer to it as football. i had a chat with a man from lester about making that happen. the man from lester makes the call. 1.4% on the s&p. tom: how is lester doing this year? jonathan: not good. tom: i am going to be relegated as well. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up to date with the first word. elon musk has put his $44 billion takeover of twitter on hold, and that has shares of the company plunging. he wants more information about the proportion of fake accounts on the social media platforms. in a recent filing, twitter said that fake accounts make up fewer than 5% of users. musk also tweeted that he is still committed to the acquisition. some european union nations say it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban russian

oil. the problem is they cannot persuade hungary to back the embargo. by putting in oil ban on hold, the eu could proceed with the rest of its sanctions package. the u.k.'s, rishi sunak, says -- is causing political and economic harm. he was asked whether the u.k. would take action on its own. >> no decision has been taken. our preference has always been to have a negotiated settlement. i know the foreign secretary continues to engage with her counterparts in europe about how we can find resolution to some of the very real challenges that the protocol is causing. >> you can get more on that story from our new bloomberg u.k. website, your premier destination for business and financial news in britain. go to bloomberg.com/u.k. internet service on u.s. airlines is about to get a lot better. southwest airlines will add a second wi-fi provider for faster

speeds on more than 400 new boeing 737 max jets. elon musk's starlink system has approached 4 of the country's largest airlines. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> this is elon musk being elon musk. i don't see him turning back. you know, if he did turn back twitter, there would be some sentiment reset. but i think on their fundamental basis, i don't think he paid much of a premium. i think that twitter was not as mispriced as, you know, perhaps some other equities have been. tom: no one on the faang stocks have been more right and has been less humble than barton crockett. thrilled that mr. crockett was

with us this morning, particularly his enthusiasm for alphabet, and the others, not so much. with the chart of the moment, ritika gupta. >> let's talk about the twitter deal that is hitting tesla. it is taking a macro swing. we are shaking things up. twitter and tesla shares normalize on a percentage basis going all the way back year to date. what you will see is it since the deal was announced or even thought about on elon musk's twitter account, you see this variation. twitter shares have been relatively stable, kind of being fixed to that offer price. tesla shares, on the other hand, have taken a dive. a lot of this is because of concerns that if elon musk goes to twitter, does tesla suffer because of the lack of attention? we know there is a macro effect because tesla is a major heavyweight. every time twitter shares go up off the deal news, tesla shares drop.

that's your macro take on why you should care about elon musk's twitter deal. tom: kriti gupta with us. lisa abramowicz and tom keene here. right now, someone with a greater breadth of scope and scale, business intelligent president at group. i don't want you to give me buy, hold, cell, but i want you to talk about the revenue hopes that mr. musk would have if he looks at twitter private as a three-year exercise to go public. what is the kind of revenue or the revenue strategy he would take? >> i don't really know. it all reminds me of the south park episode on the underpants gnomes. phase a is make profit, phase be, we don't know. we don't know how he is going to multiply the user base. there has always been some

willful optimism is what i would use to describe it. tom: does twitter have scale with or without musk? you have always been great about having that immovable force called scale. does twitter that you perceive have scale? >> scale for a niche platform. this has been a critique of a lot of companies. they thought they could be facebook, they thought they could be something universal. they were never more than a niche. they shot for the stars and got to the moon. that's ok. they are big enough to be a very important player. they are really important for communications in general. lisa: how much is the back-and-forth, and frankly, the noise around elon musk and twitter deteriorating value of the company by virtue of morale when it comes to employees, as well as the confidence that people have in the reality of what's being said? >> it's been really damaging

from a long-term perspective. the good news is that i think for most marketers, you know, we represent the largest, they want to use twitter as it is now. the work twitter has been doing toward building a safer platform has been really useful, really helpful, has contributed to a lot of extra spending. in the short-term, and has not had any impact but it is on everyone's mind when it comes to long-term planning. lisa: we are seeing this whipsaw. broader indexes have already been whipsawede dramatically. we were speaking earlier about how perhaps twitter had not participated in the upswing, so therefore, has less downside. do you think in the broader complex there is that much more downside as people rerate to a new inflationary environment? >> from a business perspective, i think it is still growth ahead. i don't see any consequences from the environment in terms of any negativity on the ad revenue

side or revenue business. the stock is a different matter. tom: tell us about the trend forward. you have been great about the persistence, the length of tv. everybody has talked about death of tv and you have really pushed against that. what do the next 12 months hold for the revenue grab that is traditional television? >> television had a really strong first quarter, possibly up double digits even. television is going to hang on from a revenue perspective because it is still uniquely powerful, uniquely impactful. there were real problems because board cutting is a mid-single digit percentage thing in the united states and it's happening everywhere around the world. more consumption is going to add more for ad revenue environment. those metrics start to fall apart the more people are streaming. tom: thank you so much. a view of twitter and the story

for the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. lisa, your observations on the weekend what do i study over the weekend to get to next week? lisa: how much have we priced in growth fears? how many growth fears should we be pricing in? hadley releasing a shift in terms of how the reaction is going to be for the rate hike? is it going to lead to slower growth? right now, you are seeing bond yields rise. i am wondering whether we have washed out all the positions and we are just going to get chopped between fears of growth scare's as well as rate hikes. tom: one of the advantages we have is the red and green of the bloomberg launch blip pad, which is a big data screen. lisa just shows bonds, that's all she wants to look at, is bonds. what i see here is price persistency in oil, in dollar, they just will not give way with sterling 1.21.

there is certain things that just will not give it up. that really interests me. lisa: i think that's an incredibly good observation. tom: i did ok there? lisa: i think it's important to note that there has been a few havens and they remain the havens and the only havens. not bonds, not necessarily even some of those cash funds, but oil and the dollar. you know, honestly, to me, that's fascinating, this idea of the dollar being the one standout. honestly, with oil, i just keep coming back to the point that you highlighted, which is this is about refined goods. this is about refined product, and gasoline futures reaching new record highs today i think is going to have meaning going forward. tom: there we go. the vix is 30.32. is that a crisis? lisa: well, ok, some people say the vix accurately reflects the volatility that people are seeing, but not necessarily what people are feeling. i don't know. right now, people are in a

jumble. jim paulsen said people are getting the heebie-jeebies. that speaks for a lot of people on wall street. tom: heebie-jeebies is from the 1920's, from cartoon strips back when everyone -- lisa: i was expecting you to do some kind of regression of mentions of heebie-jeebies. tom: some of our guests, paulsen was basically saying have courage and stay in this market. we hope you have courage to stay with us through the morning, including the open coming up on bloomberg television with jon ferro. i think mohamed el-erian is in the building and i wore my new york jets bowtie. i don't know if he will speak to me. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: what a week in this market. equity features of 1.4%. it will it stick? the countdown to the open starts now. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york city, we begin with a big i