tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg May 15, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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>> good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: welcome to "daybreak: asia" goldman sachs lloyd blankfein warns the u.s. faces a very very high risk of a recession as the fed slashes growth rates. we'll be speaking to a carmaker nissan as it solidifies is turnaround plan. haidi: more of a positive start to trading in asia. a session after we did see the recovery rally across asia last friday. u.s. stocks rising in the friday session. that really and comments from jay powell talking down the further aggressiveness and rate hikes helping sentiment.
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sidney futures, again over half a percent. we're seeing that 10-year yield holding study and seeing really indications that we are getting some buyers wading into government debt treasuries as the australian yields -- follow the moment. that's being seen as -- to the stock market volatility we continue to see play out. kiwi stocks up and the dollar-yen trading under 130. we are watching to see any kind of reaction after the rally on thursday but we have seen that progressive weakening since fed chair powell push back against more aggressive moves, is already being priced in. also watching dollar china. the reference rate was stronger from the pboc. so, looking to see if we
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continue to do that given it is is seen as an indication of support for currency from policymakers. they are raising the weighting of the yuan. shery: we might see in the meantime some tailwinds coming from wall street. we are talking about u.s. -- spending in the s&p 500 on friday, seeing a huge rally, the nasdaq 100 outperforming major benchmarks. giants like amazon, microsoft and apple leaning those -- leading those gains. the 10-year yield over 9%. wit above -- wti above $111 per barrel continuing to see the squeeze on russian diesel exports continue to fall sharply. you have to take the u.s. rally in the context. of the bigger selloff we have seen. we are talking about the s&p 500 losing ground for six
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consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak since 2011 when it comes to the levels, we are talking about 70% dow -- 17% down, very close to a bear market. we have seen 20 six bear market since 1928 and that has come with a lot of volatility. but also becoming positive in the months following that plunge into 20% losses for the s&p 500. so much so that one year later you can see returns of about 29% or so, this, of course as we continue to watch where that volatility is headed. the vix around 30, in order to get to the bear market we have seen it top 45. haidi: more of those market swings to come. according to lloyd blankfein. really underscoring the amount of volatility we continue to see and here is the latest -- he is the latest award of u.s. recession. >> do you think we are headed
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towards recession? >> we're certainly heading. it's a very very high risk factor and there is a path, it is a narrow path, but i think the fed has very powerful tools. it's hard to finely tune them and hard to see the effects of them quickly enough to alter it, but i think they are responding well. i think it is definitely a risk. if i were running a big company i would be very prepared. if i was a consumer, i would be prepared but it is not baked in the cake. haidi: for more analysis that's bring in our asia editor. stephen engle. i'll start off with you. what is the outlook looking like? do we see sustained prospects for recovery? andrea: hi, haidi. i think what we can say is we definitely are expecting more volatility ahead. tthe market is not convinced,
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despite the sharp selloff we have seen, it is not convinced we have reached that bottom, and for that reason, we are seeing investors starting to look at bonds again, after those prices fell and yields went sharply higher. we're seeing investors inflows into bonds because they are starting to be perceived as perhaps a hedge against the slow down, against a recession. investors are expecting the yields have peaked, but it means that bonds have a role to play now as a hedge as the fed is embarking on these very aggressive tightening and engineering a slowdown and a potential recession. shery: of course we are watching what is coming out of china. the mortgage rate cut and more data out today. stephen: a big data dump.
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they are some seasonal distortions or the rise and fall of chinese economy. because in, what, march, april may 2020 the economy ground to a halt, we had those terrible numbers. last year was up and now this year in the middle of omicron and locked down so the numbers will be exacerbated lower by th ose base affects but april was probably the worst month we have seen so far in the first four months of this year. that has seasonal distortions because of the lunar new year. but, yes, the pboc was the first went to add stimulus over this weekend, cutting essentially the lower bound range for first-time homebuyers by 20 basis points. we're also going to get the medium lending rate laden this morning at -- later this morning at 9:20 with economist expecting a modest reduction.
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on the mortgage data week and see how loan growth has really dropped off in april. loan growth, the data we got on friday, weekend to the worst level in nearly five years in april. we're going to see some serious bad numbers later today when we get the data dump for. april retail sales not surprisingly because of those lockdowns, the two biggest most cosmopolitan cities, restrictions in beijing, but lockdowns definitely seven weeks long and shanghai with a possible respite coming later this week as shop start opening up. retail sales expected to be down 6.6%, the worst data since april and march of 2020. property investment year to date. i talked about those mortgage rates coming down. property investment year today, year-over-year likely fell 1.5%. that is a direct reflection of the lack of activity a people
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buying property because of the lockdowns but because of the crackdown that we saw late last year on the property sector. the last number i will bring up is production. you know, china, the factory of the world -- look at this chart. industrial production for april expected to grow at a very modest 0.5%. could go into negative territory. the data on the bloomberg terminal dating back to 2002, industrial production is only -- has only contracted once since 2002 for a monthly number and that was march 2020. haidi: we have been looking at these previously unseen remarks from december. so much has happened between now and then. what did they tell us about the policy parity? stephen: it is like unearthing a time capsule. of course, december 2021 seems like such a long time ago. but you can get from this statement or this speech which
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is only now being published by -- a magazine laying out xi jinping's thoughts, that outlines the government's economic priority that will then be laid out at the national people's congress. and this runs like a long litany of the problems that are now exacerbated the chinese economy, whether it is the property crackdown, the irrational expansion of capital that has decimated the big technology companies. essentially xi jinping said, blind expansion of enterprises like alibaba and the like, financial fraud, corruption and at the very end, slowdown in growth. well, now that we have seen a priorities that xi jinping and others and the pboc talk about
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growth and growth and jobs. those are the priorities now. shery: does that mean perhaps we could see chinese assets being supported? andreea: this is shaping up as a contrarian view. as some investors are starting to dip their toes and look at a chinese stock. they are betting that the lockdowns, the restrictions once they are lifted, this is a market that is ripe for rebound. by all means, valuations are cheap. the csi 300 index is mired in a bear market and you also have promises of a stimulus from the government. look, that is notwithstanding the uncertainties of a zero covid policy. we are bracing for a set of numbers in beijing but chinese equities are thrown in the mix also. haidi: let's get to vonnie
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quinn with the first word headlines. >> thank you. sweden is set to apply for membership of nato. russia's invasion of ukraine has ended of era for the nation which has shunned military alliances. they will deliver their former application at nato headquarters in brussels later this week. once their parliaments have signed off. >> if they decide to -- this would be = an historic moment. their membership in nato would increase our shared security. demonstrate that nato's door is open and that the aggression does not pay. >> the e.u. is set to offer gas importers a solution to avoid buying russian gas.
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they say the european commission will tell companies to make a clear statement that their obligations are fulfilled once they pay in u.s. dollars. india's move to restrict food exports is set to reverberate through the agricultural markets. the decision comes amid a record-breaking heat wave. the indian government says the move is to protect the country's security but it will -- slow exports to -- fill some exports are some countries based on request. sri lanka's new prime minister had talks with the world bank and an effort to replenish its badly depleted food and medicine supplies. the government faces an immediate challenge in restoring financing to pay for fuel in the coming weeks. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg.
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shery: still ahead japanese automaker nissan joins us to discuss their latest earnings. and a business strategy moving forward. we will speak to the coo later this hour. first, goldman sachs expects -- spending to remain one of the few bright spots in china as covid zero restrictions continue to weigh on the economy. more on the outlook next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: is another busy week for asia on the eco front. adding to the pain, weak credit data from over the weekend showing a 56% drop in yuan loa ns. the pboc has cut mortgage rates in an effort to prop up the property markets. great to have you with us, andrew tilton. we expect the deceit -- to see a grounding to the halls with domestic activity indicators later on today but i'm wondering if you think of some of the
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tougher measures taken by policymakers are going to be effective and if and when presumably when these restrictions are ultimately lifted in china, will the economy be able to see that strong rebound? >> well, the infrastructure push is one way that authorities are trying to offset some of the downside pressures from the property sector and the covid restrictions, but ultimately, any stimulus policy is only going to be as effective as the reopening. there is going to need to be a reduction in the average number of restrictions over the coming weeks and months in order to enable more of a recovery in the economy. the modest good news on that front, it looks like we are seeing some decline -- in shanghai and the possibility the lockdown may ease to some extent in the coming days and weeks. haidi: i think you get to the point and you can invest in infrastructure but when you have no construction because of lockdowns, it is hardly going to be a viable way of spending
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investment money, is it? >> the authorities are certainly making the funds available and there are projects. it looks like some pipeline project -- ultimately, yes, we're going to need to see materials get to the places they are needed, there are transportation restrictions even with a lot of -- without a lot of cases at the moment. we see a drop off for example in truck traffic and airline traffic within the country. and those things are going to create bottlenecks in so far as supplies and people and materials for moving to places where projects are taking place but that is going to continue to gum up the works to some degree in the coming months but the hope is with more targeted and shorter-term restrictions if they can manage covid with that, then they may be able to increase the level of economic activity and get back to more normal working in terms
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of things like construction projects. shery: we continue to hear from the leadership that they will be supporting economic growth in the country. this as we continue to see tightening, financial -- tightening across the world, i wonder how reactive policymakers are and what exactly are the factors driving china's policy stance. >> it is clear that zero covid will remain a high priority into 2023. we saw the authorities reiterate the importance of zero covid and also several international sporting events -- have been postponed or canceled the message is that zero covid will stay. they will try to optimize that, maybe catch outbreaks sooner with smaller, smaller impact hopefully in the economy, but the source of priority appears to be zero covid and within that
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framework how much activity can recover. without question we think the level of restrictions will probably be able to ease in the back half of the year. given how contagious omicron is, we are still going to have more of a restriction on average than we had in 2021. shery: does that mean we will continue to see a weaker chinese yuan against the u.s. dollar and how is the pboc expected to respond? what have they done historically at these levels? >> well, we've certainly seen a sharp weakening. in recent weeks the authorities have gone from -- to a facilitator and encourage the through weaker countercyclical factors a weaker daily fixers to sounding more neutral in recent days and weeks. we do think perhaps a touch more near-term downside but if we do see some improvement in economic data, beyond april, clearly
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this morning's numbers are going to be very weak, but if we see some improvement beyond april as we get into may and june, we could see some stabilization improvement in the currency and that is our expectation and that comes against the backdrop of the dollar, the dollar which has been very strong is likely to be peaking in the coming months. and so the combination of those things may help the renminbi to stabilize but ultimately we are looking at a slow growth year and growth somewhat below we think the government's target, we're still estimating 4.5% growth for this year. haidi: at whwat point do you start to see alleviation when it comes to the two fold supply chain issues derived from what is going on in china and do you expect to see, we are starting to gauge now that some of the cost side is slowing down because of that demand destruction fear from china. >> well, we have really got micro industry-specific affects that depend on the exact
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location and duration of lockdowns. for example in shanghai, the impact on consumer electronics on autos because those industries are overrepresented in that part of the country. we will see those percolating through the supply chain over the next couple months. so, as the exports that we would have gotten fail to materialize or are delayed into may and june . so, i think the supply chain effects are yet to be fully seen and will play out over the next couple months. again, if we can see a moderately lower level of restrictions the back half of the year than we would hope that q2 would be the worst point for the supply chain issues but that all depends on how well they do controlling covid. shery: the covid zero policy. andrew tilton, the goldman sachs chief apac economist. you can get our roundup of the stories that you need to know to
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haidi: what a wild week it was for crypto but pretty stable. bitcoin in particular staging the recovery. holding onto most of the gains and are trading above 31 there, extending this period of relative market calm. of course, we had the collapse of terra usb stable coin that -- widespread panic across the industry we're are seeing the recovery, up 0.2%. the other major coin that was being watched, tether, also seeing the sort of regaining
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that peg to the dollar and that managed to reassure some investors in the crypto space. the louver galaxy 7.25% and seen we have seen crypto rising above $31,000, -- particular when it comes to the trading in japan and korea. shery: and here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. saudi aramco has posted its highest profits. the company saw a boost from surging oil crisis in the wake of russia's invasion of ukraine. many saw $40 billion in the first quarter of -- up 82%. last week, aramco surpassed apple as the most valuable company in the word. cvc capital is considering a bid for bramble. they said the private equity firm is in discussions with the company following an unsolicited
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offer to acquire all of its shares. the financial review had reported cvc was establishing funding in order to make a $14 billion buyout offer. the f.t. reporting that goldman sachs will allow it senior staff to take unlimited holidays as the competition intensifies to retain talent. the new policy was introduced at the start of the month. other changes include at least two extra days off each year for senior employees and all staff will be required to take four weeks off each year starting in 2023. next, the euro sliding towards u.s. dollar parity for the first time in 20 years. we take a look at how >> i am tay
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seriously and it's my top domestic priority. there are things we can do, that starts with the federal reserve. >> i worry the federal reserve has tried to be too nice to markets. >> 75 basis points is not something the committee is considering. >> you cannot come on tv and speak about all of the uncertainty and then rule out a certain policy response. >> 50 basis points is already pretty aggressive. i don't think we need to be moving even more aggressive. >> it is essential the fed maintain credibility. >> we don't want 75 forever. >> it will not do so until it does -- >> inflation has increased significantly. >> you have gdp growth expected to slow sharply. >> i wish other central bankers
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were as honest and balanced as andrew bailey. shery: just speaking about central bank credibility. the euro is on the verge of u.s. dollar parity for the first time in two decades as the greenback gains ground. let's get more from mark renfield. -- cranfield. what is driving all of this weakness on the european currency? guest: it's a bit of a perfect storm. conditions were not that good because of super-high inflation, very easy monetary policy, and that was before the ukraine war started and then we had excessive lockdowns in china which are expecting -- affecting supply chains. when you throw in high energy costs and restrictions, disruptions from china, all of
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that on top of existing issues, europe is in the worst of the world. the european central bank is sounding more hawkish, but at the same time are very aware there is a potential slowdown coming. it's a no-win situation for the europe central bank. you need a safety valve when investors are looking at situations like this, looking for a hedging tool, and for the moment, the euro is the hedge investors have. haidi: starling is in quite a pickle given the way the u.k. has gotten itself in the middle of the stagflationary crisis. mark: certainly similar situation to europe, plus the brexit issues are adding to some of the costs for the u.k.. a survey has been released, the details are we asked people
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where do you see the pound against the dollar in the near future, and 70% of respondents thought it would decline before it rose again. also, respondents think the u.k. stocks will outperform in the near term helped by the fact the pound is good for exporters. a modest margin. they see yields going higher in line with u.s. treasury yields. all in all, not a great picture for the u.k. coming out of the survey. haidi: mark cranfield there. you can follow more on the markets live blog. you can get a market rundown as well in one click, commentary and analysis so you can find out exactly what is affecting your investments. the u.k. chancellor's promising
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tax cuts to ease the largest ball -- fall in income on record. he was speaking with bloomberg. >> it's important the policy remains responsive to the situation we are seeing, and in the spring in february, we had a sense of what was happening, particular, clarity on energy prices. the price cap was increased in april by 700 pounds. we announced the support that was going to accompany that increase. on top of that -- >> that does not feel responsive. >> that is one aspect of what we are doing. if you look at >> happening in a few weeks time, there is a significant tax cut. it means most people will see a net tax cut.
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the combination of duty-free and fewer duty tax cuts, the largest ever, that is worth another 100 pounds for a typical family. in the autumn, we improved the universal credit system to help people as they move into work from welfare, that supports low income families. that is worth 1000 pounds for a typical person. the nationally living wage has just gone up. that's worth about 1000 pounds a year, summer working full-time. -- some are working full-time. that's quite a lot of support in place. i stand ready to do more as the situation yvonne's. particularly with energy prices where the price cap will only go up again, and i am focused on listening to people, hearing what is on their mind, make sure we can get our policy right.
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shery: let's now get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: goldman sachs chairman has urged companies and consumers to prepare for a recession. in an interview, he said it's not a certainty but there is only a narrow path to avoiding it. he added the fed has powerful tools to bring down inflation and has been responding well. the chinese president has warned of a so-called improper accumulation of wealth. in previously unpublished remarks, he said china needs to expand the real economy and avoid mass joblessness. he warned financial and property risks persist. the pboc effectively cut the interest rate for new mortgages in and attempts to prop up the housing market. the central bank announced first-time homebuyers will be able to borrow at an interest
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rate as low as 4.4%. china's housing market is crucial as a source of growth for the economy, but it's been in a slump for almost a year. scott morrison has made an impassioned pitch for a center-right government to be reelected for a fourth term. the coalition held its official campaign launch on sunday in a state crucial for his party to win the election. polls point to an opposition victory. >> one of the most challenging times we have ever known. but i'm here to tell you today that despite what we have faced, we have remained true to the promise of australia, and australia has prevailed. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg.
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haidi: japanese markets will open in just under 20 minutes from now. let's take a look at how we are expected to shape up. we had so much strength in the yen, the steepest rally in six months. since then, a continued weakening within the g10 space. fed chair powell pushing back against more aggressive rate hikes, taking down a little bit of that strength. dollar yen resuming gains after slumping 2% in that there is a session. we will look for more signs of directions for that volatile pairing. futures look like a nice gain at the start of training -- trading. looking at asian crypto related names after we saw that recovery in bitcoin, above $31,000. we are watching jgb futures,
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certainly in the government bond space, the treasury space, we have seen more of an interest from investors looking to hedge the equities risk. take a look at some stories ahead of the open. japan releasing the producer price data, we will bring you those numbers. mitsubishi financial is among the companies reporting earnings today, and a tokyo steel executive says manufacturers are increasingly looking to move offshore operations to the home market. shery: one of the potential positives from a weakening yen against the dollar is overseas earnings, as this chart shows, the dollar-yen exchange rate is trading well above corporate expectations. this will be crucial for manufacturers like nissan, the automaker posting a lower operating profit outlook last week, and the turnaround faces challenge from supply chains to covid. joining us is the coo at nissan. always good to see you. thank you so much for your time.
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your turnaround plans seem to be going according to plan, you returned to annual profit. what would you say to people who have heard your numbers and think your outlook and forecast are a bit too conservative? guest: we are at the midpoint of our transformation, and for sure, thanks to employees, customers, dealers, we are in profit after three years. this is the consequence. focusing on core markets in the future. shery: what do you see in terms of profitability in the next two years, now that you are halfway through your plan? guest: 2022, our forecast is in
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fact better than what we did in 2021 because of the fundamental transformation we have done in our operations. having said that, when we look at external conditions, raw material, the supply chain challenges, we try to be realistic. i would not call it conservative, i would say it is realistic. having said that, more and more we have certainty moving forward, definitely our performance could be better. 2022, on one side -- for example, we have more than six months of customer orders. on the others, we have external conditions. haidi: the supply chain remains a major issue for automakers. in what sense are you getting some advantage from the weakness in the yen as well as the
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ability of sourcing those parts domestically? ashwani: the exchange rate is important. it is not the most important factor in the business, because it may come back to you short-term, but what is important is to have the business strategy on midterm and long-term. we believe there may be a short-term benefit, but on the other side, our objective is to have the local competitiveness in all of the regions. we have more than 40 plants in 170 countries. we need to have local competitiveness, and that is our midterm and long-term objective. for example, if the exchange rate is at 130, whether it's going to change our strategy, my answer is no. we announced investment up to
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$500 million to do new nissan and infiniti electric cars. foreign exchange is important, but it's not the most important factor when you talk about made to long-term strategy. haidi: you have top executives visiting japan. can you give us an indication of what conversations are taking place? is there talk about rebalancing? ashwani: i would say thanks to the ease of travel restrictions, after two years, we are meeting together. these are the business meetings to find more synergy in the alliance, and as you know, as far as nissan is concerned, we are studying how result -- renau
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lt wants to do it and nissan would like to support renault towards their business strategy. how we support it, to what extent we support it, these are the discussions we are doing now. there is no rebalancing as of today. we are focusing on the businesses which can benefit each of our companies. shery: when you talk about the electric vehicle business, you are confirming nissan is interested in collaborating in this sector. ashwani: we already are collaborating in this sector. shery: in the business itself. ashwani: spin off businesses -- the activity, whether it is a spinoff or not remains the same. going towards electrification.
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with common platforms, common flattery's -- factories, the powertrain, these kinds of things are going to continue. maybe they will get more boosted because renault is going to focus more on electrification. we may find more synergies if they want to focus on electrification. as far as nissan is concerned, nissan has diversified markets, diversified portfolios, but also on electrification as an activity and business strategy. definitely, we will work together to find more synergies in electrification. haidi: does that mean you will go for that third plant in the u.s. for ev? ashwani: the way we are progressing in the united states , our products are doing really great. our business is doing really great.
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most important, the culture change in the united states from volume to value definitely, we are feeling we will be short of capacity towards ambition 2030. it will not be a surprise that it will come up very soon to talk about the third plant in the united states. shery: what about supplies to support the ev business, especially when it comes to owning a mind? -- a mine? ashwani: at first, i would not say owning a mine, but the vertical integration of the supply chain is very important. when it comes to electrification, and as you know, 30 years before we started the research on batteries, now we started developing -- we believe vertical integration is beneficial and gives a unique
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competitiveness. vertical integration could go towards having a direct relationship with the mines, but you need the whole supply chain engaged. when it comes to precious metals, we have direct relationships with the mines. it's not a new thing which we should do. if it makes sense, we will go for it. haidi: what is the one change japan needs? ashwani: that is a great question. when i look at inflation in japan, i think it's good news, after so many years japan has gone from deflation to inflation. the technology japan has got has to be converted into the
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business. when we talk about semiconductor chips, they were invented in japan. when we talk about autonomous driving technology, they were invented in japan. if japan needs one change, it's how technology can be converted into business and spread all over the world as a leader. that is what i would suggest. haidi: the nissan coo, it's a pleasure to have you. you can get more from this interview on tv . tuning to japan ahead every week, we hear from leading names in japanese business. mondays, right here on bloomberg television. shery: we have breaking news out of japan. ppi numbers, growth of 10%, the faster -- a faster acceleration than expected, the idea it would
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be around midnight percent. the march numbers have also been revised upwards to 9.7%. month on month growth from 1.2% also exceeding expectations, the previous month's numbers revised 2.9%. we have been discussing how elevated costs are keeping pressure on pricing as well. haidi: we are also watching the covid-19 situation in china, shanghai numbers coming through, four new deaths, no new cases outside of quarantine with 938 local cases. those numbers coming way down. at the second day we have seen shanghai have no new cases outside of quarantine. that's important because we have heard if they have three days of no new community transmission, we could see that as a catalyst for more restrictions being eased. we saw some restrictions when it came to the phase reopening of rio -- retail stores announced
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bloomberg a planned payment -- this is the first principle payment under an 18 month extension by the noteholders. a bloomberg school revealed the credit suisse board held early-stage stage talks on potentially replacing the ceo as soon as this year, after a string of scandals. the board continues to publicly voice support, some members are increasingly worried he is not getting a handle on the bank's problems. shery: looking ahead to the markets. asian shares related to cryptocurrencies could move as bitcoin trades above $31,000, keeping a close eye on holdings and others. cdc capital considering a bid for ramble, ramble saying the private equity firm has had discussions with the company following unsolicited officers -- offers to acquire its shares.
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shery: welcome, i am shery ahn. haidi: asia's major markets have just open for trade. asian markets are set for some relief from the stock route as sentiment stabilizes. goldman sachs morning the u.s. faces a very high risk of a recession as the bank slashes its growth forecast. china cuts mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers as it looks to boost the economy. data is expected to illustrate the economic toll of covid zero. shery: take a look at japanese equity markets, gaining ground by about 1%, the nikkei leading the gains. we see a little bit of weakness on the japanese yen against the u.s. dollar, this of course after the biggest surge in the yen against the greenback in about six months. the biggest gain for the first time on a weekly basis since
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early march. perhaps the freefall we have seen in the currency could be slowing down. we will continue to watch the space. we are watching jgb yields, fell towards for .2%. we watch any boj action now that we are seeing inflationary concerns now. we saw ppi numbers jumping 10% for the month of april year on year, which is a beat on the expectations, and of course commodity prices pressuring pricing power by japanese firms. take a look at korean stocks. we are watching the south korean won very closely, strength against the u.s. dollar in today's session, this after falling towards a decade low, talking about the weakest close against the u.s. dollar since july 2009. we have heard from the new finance minister after meeting with the new be ok -- bok
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governor on affect stabilization. the finance minister was also talking about how the economic situation in south korea is pretty brave at this point. -- grave at this point. haidi: let's take a look at the open. take a look at the asx. hefty gains in the previous session, friday we saw the biggest jump in about 3.5 months. seeing leadership out of industrial materials. we are also seeing some interesting return to the sovereign bonds space, some of that column -- coming back to the likes of treasuries as we see yields starting to steady. kiwi stocks are up 6/10 of 1%, new zealand trading at the kiwi dollar to the upside when it comes to the momentum, given it lost 2.8% last week. the seventh weekly decline.
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cba seeing further weakness when it comes to the aussie dollar, $.65 is possible if we see continued deterioration in china's economic outlook. take a look at the treasury space, the short end of the curve, the 10 year watching the resumption when it comes to some carelessness on bond markets. -- bearishness on bond markets. some more interest when it comes to global bonds as well as a hedge on equity volatility, s&p futures looking like a little bit of positivity, brent crude holding up by 7/10 of 1%. we continue to see fuels driving the bullish sentiment for crude. take a look at ramble, one stock we are watching in sydney. we are seeing outside of over 11% after cdc capital partners is considering a bid for ramble.
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early discussions have been held to acquire all of its shares. the company has a market cap of about $10.4 billion and ramble -- bramble says they are considering other opportunities. shery: we continue to watch this ♪ he soft commodities space, india reiterating it prohibited we exports -- wheat exports to control rising prices. this is according to the commerce secretary, india is the second biggest producer of the grain which has been impacted by the war in ukraine, ukraine is a big producer of wheat, hitting its highest level since 2008. the drought not really helping, but it's coming out a we continue to see food prices continuing to surge and inflationary concerns hitting broader economies. our next guest saying there is
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room for global -- when it comes to the markets. this, wants china comes out of lockdown. richard harris joins us now. wheat futures continuing to rally, we are seeing other commodities rising if china comes out of the covid lockdown, will be see more inflationary pressures and how will that affect markets? richard: that's right. it is complex, but you have to look at china as we saw the u.s., europe and other markets, we had a sharp downfall in gdp in one quarter, something like a 30% fall in the u.s., but the u.s. recovered what it lost, europe slightly less, the u.k. slightly less again. i think the real situation with these lockdowns are you do get
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spikes with gdp, but you also see quite significant recoveries, maybe not back to what it was before, but pretty close. i could see us having a temporary period where china comes on stream and looks to do business again. that will be positive for the markets. i see that being short-term, which probably leads to lloyd blankfein's remarks over the weekend about looking at a recession longer term. shery: this push and pull is interesting, especially given the dollar is so strong which would usually mean pressure on the commodities space. where do you see the greenback going? richard: i think the greenback is likely to stay strong for a while. tensions in ukraine are not going to go away quickly, they will become less front-page, but
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it's not going to go away quickly and that is always good for the dollar. it seems difficult to see any other currency taking over. china has had a weak spot, the dollar-euro cross is an important one, and one has to be strong when the other is weak. we have seen certain currencies like sterling fall out of bed. that focuses on a strong-ish dollar, the debate over interest rates, 50 basis points, 75 basis points will keep the attention there. i could see the dollar staying strong for a while. haidi: does that mean you do see euro-dollar parity given the fundamental seem to be in place? richard: that's a bold statement. we also had sterling-dollar parity in 1985 just as i was going to business school. i am aware these things can
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happen. there will probably be a spike down, i would not see it being sustainable at that rate. we have a little way to go, and i think the features at the moment seem to imply dollar strength for the next quarter. haidi: starting to see government bonds as a way to offset volatility. richard: that's a difficult one. if we are looking at interest rates, i think there is no doubt it's going to happen. we may see breaks in that trend, but it looks as if that trend is it's fairly firmly set. the issue with equity volatility is it is going to happen in an environment like this, we're in a transition environment, where we are looking at a transition to higher interest rates, higher
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inflation, higher food prices. that's going to create volatility. there is probably nowhere to hide except in the short-term. you can't keep all of your eggs in one basket, have to keep aware the fact markets will move, will change, and maybe it's time when other currencies seem keen to accumulate. shery: some traders have pointed to crypto being perhaps a hedge given these inflationary pressures, you are calling it -- where to be go from here? richard: the thing with crypto's they are showing their colors in this environment. the problem with crypto is, who is your daddy? the fed may be immensely fallible, but at least it is
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there. it does have the power of the state and taxation behind it. we have to focus on those fundamentals. if you are in rubles, you probably need some kind of hedge, and crypto for a short period was that. i think it's difficult to say they are anything but a small issue in terms of what you are looking at in financials. haidi: always great to chat with you. take a look at some stocks we are watching in tokyo. honda is in focus and toshiba. watching honda as we see the full year profit failing to lift the outlook, forecasting operating income with the guidance that missed estimates. it was a reflection of higher materials costs as well as supply chain disruption.
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we are seeing that stock trade to the downside. toshiba is want to watch, the company saying investors have signed confidentiality pacts as they are looking for strategic alternatives. also, the operating forecast missing estimates. here in sydney, getting big trading moves when it comes to bramble. cbc weighing a takeover bid. those early discussions have been held and potentially we could see other strategic options being considered other than the steel. let's get to vonnie -- this deal. that's get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: lloyd blankfein has urged companies and consumers to prepare for a recession. in an interview, he said it's not a certainty but there is only a narrow path to avoiding it. he added the federal reserve has tools to bring down inflation and has been responding well. >> do you think we are heading
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towards recession? >> we are certainly heading -- it's a high risk. there is a path, a narrow path, but i think the fed has very powerful tools, it's hard to finally tune them and see the effects quickly enough to alter it, but i think they are responding well. it is definitely a risk. if i was running a big company i would be prepared, if i was a consumer i would be prepared. vonnie: finland and sweden are set to apply for membership of nato in aid to medical -- in a dramatic change. the two nations have historically shunned military alliances. they will deliver formal applications at nato headquarters later this week. >> this would be a historic
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moment. their membership in nato would increase our shared security, demonstrate that nato's door is open and that aggression does not pay. vonnie: the european union is set to offer a solution to avoid breaching sanctions while satisfying putin's demand for payment in rubles. sources say the commission will tell companies to make a clear, mission -- statement that obligations -- companies will be allowed to open accounts in a russian bank. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, china's april activity data is likely to show conditions deteriorating. we will get a preview from bank of america global research. first, china is cutting mortgage
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shops, as more signs of credit stress emerges. let's bring in stephen engle and yvonne man. tell us more about this policy support and what are we expecting from the pboc? stephen: it's a different environment than 2021 when the sector hammered local developers. this is a break to stimulate demand in the property space that has been hammered by lockdowns and other areas of restricted movement and commerce in china. the pboc is easing mortgage rates as shanghai prepares to open up shops and get commerce going. it's a pivotal week. the pboc cutting the lower bound rates sunday by 20 basis points.
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quite a significant move to try and stimulate demand. in about an hour's time, it will set the medium-term lending rate. economists expect a modest reduction. the slump in loan growth we saw friday was much bigger than expected, it was about half than what was expected. according to economists, they are saying this credit slump we saw friday is reflected in the mortgage lack of pickup, could make a case for further easing. nine of 14 economists surveyed expect the benchmark one year rate will be cut this week. haidi: ivanka, it comes as sunac made local payments. does this change investor
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sentiment on confidence? yvonne: not quite. this is what we're hearing from two noteholders, that local payment was made. but, the timing is interesting because it was a day after they defaulted on the dollar bonds. it's a sign that perhaps cash is first going to domestic creditors and a growing divergence that in fact, how global investors are treated to the domestic peers. this is the first principle payment we have seen under an 18 month extension that was agreed to by these noteholders, and they still have many other payments coming up as well. this year, even as the clampdown has been going down, among these borrowers you are seeing a fresh wave of defaults. when it comes to domestic creditors, they have actually been receiving payments and even getting sweetened offers on these extension proposals.
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on the flipside, must defaults we have seen were offshore debt according to some of the data we have been crunching, which is a sharp reversal from a we have seen in previous years, and leaving overseas creditors with billions of losses. shery: the issue is, the fear is that this could be systemic, other developers also struggling. yvonne: you see more signs of stress, more of these extension exercises going on, logan group is now in talks to extend the maturities of their offshore debt by four to seven years, they say if bondholders do not approve of this plan, they will go through some sort of debt restructuring. according to local media, the offshore bond amount is "hundreds of millions of dollars," so we will see how that plays out. this is after logan announced their auditor was resigning after a request from board
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members because the two sides were not able to agree on a suitable timetable to release results which were delayed due to covid, and they now have to find a new auditor to undertake the whole ordeal. keep in mind, this is a bad sign. when the auditor quits. we have reached the deadline for those that had already missed audited results on march 31, that deadline was this weekend. a lot of these are property firms. we are waiting to hear, maybe we will see more results coming through, but as of now, the logan stock has been suspended since thursday. haidi: we are also bracing for activity data from china. stephen: is going to be bad numbers. we are expecting it, april activity fell off the cliff. you're going to see retail sales
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down considerably, the consensus estimates are down 6.6%. we can bring up the bar charts. there are base effects as well. in 2020, the numbers were terrible, china went into lockdown to battle the beginning of the pandemic, last year's numbers were up considerably, now we are down base effects again. the numbers are bad. retail sales are probably the worst since april of 2020. property investment year to date expected to be down 1.5%, that's going to be reflective of all of the information we have been talking about and the pressure on the property market, and no one is buying property. the last one that's very important is industrial production, china is a factory to the world. china has had one contraction and its industrial production data since data goes back to 2002. that was in the first part of
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2020 as i have been expanded. look with the estimate is for april of this year. 0.5%. that's almost on the verge of contraction. haidi: stephen and yvonne man. let's take a look at how futures in europe are opening, so much focus when it comes to the potential for euro-dollar parity given the widening fundamentals. we are seeing more of an optimistic picture when it comes to the start of trading. we see the rally being extended from friday, futures up by half a percent, msci europe showing robust bullishness, and stoxx futures up half a percent. we have much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: a quick check of the latest headlines. salyer amco has posted its highest profit since its record stockmarket listing. the company saw a boost from surging oil prices in the wake of russia's invasion of ukraine. up 82% from the year earlier. last week aramco surpassed apple to become the world's most valuable company. cvc capital is considering a bid for brambles. they say the private equity firm had early discussions with the company following an unsolicited offer to apply all the shares. they reported cvc was assembling funding to make a $14 billion payout offer. goldman sachs will allow senior staff to take an unlimited number of holidays as competition intensifies to retain talent.
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the new policy was introduced at the start of the month. other changes include at least two extra days off each year for junior employees, and all goldman staff will be required to take three weeks off each year starting in 2023. next, we speak to bank of america on the impact of the lockdowns on the chinese economy. we are expecting retail sales, investment, and production, all to have nearly ground to a halt over the covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns. this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets.
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tech and communication stocks. gaining 1.5% as the japanese yen is also weakening against the u.s. dollar holding at that 129 level. we saw ppi numbers jumping 10% year-over-year in april. the kospi gaining ground for the second session. the korean won recouping some losses after falling to the weakest level in more than a decade. asx 200 also gaining ground for a second session, up .7%. as the aussie holds a steady still below the $.70 u.s. level. the aussie dollar has been losing ground for six consecutive weeks. kiwi stocks higher by .8%. let's now get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: india's ban on wheat export comes amid a record-breaking heat wave and the war in ukraine. the indian government says he decision is to protect their
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food security but they will still allow exports to some countries based on requests. sri lanka's new prime minister has held talks with the asian development bank and the world bank in an effort to replenish badly depleted food, fertilizer, and medicine supplies. he says the government faces an immediate challenge in securing financing to pay for fuel in the coming week. he was appointed by the president last week following violent protests. chinese president xi jinping is warned of the so-called improper accumulation of wealth because of economic risks. in previously unpublished remarks, xi said china needs to expand the real economy and avoid mass joblessness. the remarks were released more than five months after xi made the speech. the pboc effectively cut the interest rate for new mortgages in an attempt to prop up china's ailing housing market. the central bank announced sunday that first home buyers will be able to borrow at an
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interest rates as low as 4.4%, down from 4.6%. china's housing market is a crucial source of growth for the economy but has been in a slump for almost a year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: china's april activity data will probably make for a worrying read, driving home the extent of the damage to the economy from lockdowns. production and investment likely decelerated sharply. retail sales probably shake -- sank even further. to look through this expected bad news, helen qiao joins us. great to have you with us. we know this reading is going to be pretty poor. the question is how sustained is this downturn, and if we do see the lifting of restrictions over the next few weeks and months, how well-positioned is the
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economy for a sharp rebound? helen: thank you for your question. that is a very fair and probably the million dollar question. people are all wondering what exactly it is going to take for policymakers to pull off your policy musing -- policy easing measures to try and help this is top down to the pboc -- top down, so they are announcing it together to cut the mortgage interest rate. we think this is quite encouraging. but the changes are pretty limited and therefore i am not to positive that this will immediately boost overall growth. especially the demand from the property market. however, i think what it takes is for credit expansion to accelerate. it takes more than just a 20 basis point cut. we need to see much more than that. in our view, there are three
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things we currently see as an impossible trinity, which is 5.5% growth target, and the zero covid policy. and the last is the deleveraging. out of the three, only two get to exist. so we think the most likely outcome is if we stick to zero covid policy and we see policymakers also sticking to the 5.5% growth target, but at the end of the day, they will have to start real leveraging. -- start re-leveraging. haidi: there is always some sort of impossible trinity when it comes to economic instability priorities for china. deleveraging has been on the back foot for some time. so do you see the piling up of systemic risk then? helen: absolutely. the biggest problem we currently see is the continued current pressure on credit.
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to the extent that business confidence is being shaken and therefore credit demand is now fundamentally being damaged, and therefore takes more than just a simple interest rate cut to boost credit demand. we are hoping to see maybe some combination measures. for example, infrastructure investment slash social housing projects. basically offering semi-sovereign-type of credit worthiness, combined with low funding crossed -- cost of credit. when we see this type of measure coming out, we are much more bullish. shery: how are you feeling about the yuan at this point given its weakness recently and its tolerance level by policymakers? helen: well, i think the yuan weakness is probably near term unavoidable given that we see the diversions between the pboc and the fed monetary policy
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relative tightness. but keep in mind that the exchange rate depreciation could potentially also help to the extent that it will help loosen financial conditions. so if you could not boost credit expansion fast enough, the alternative is to actually get other the bit of currency help from the appreciation. so if we can have both i think that will be quite helpful for growth to stabilize. shery: can growth stabilize without really a lifting completely of the covid zero policy, and what does that mean for the very ambitious 5.5% growth target by policymakers? helen: fair enough, such a question. many people are saying this is a dilemma, either/or. either you have the zero covid policy or you have growth. i do not necessarily think these are necessarily directly at a conflict. in fact, we think that if they
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can start with stabilization in infrastructure investment and manage to boost the property market, we think there is a fairly good chance we can see a little bit of improvement, even if when they gradually relax the pandemic control measures. of course the zero covid policies are not going to stay this high for the next six to 12 months. haidi: we know that the correlation between the gdp target is always to maintain stability in the labor market. we know he has expressed concerns over how great and complicated that situation is. do you think they can achieve the objective when it comes to maintaining jobs and stability? helen: well, i think it is possible that we are seeing the labor market stabilization with
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the help of more targeted measures of sme's, and also from social security perspective, help not only to smaller companies but also bigger ones. but i would say it is important to keep in mind the labor market is only a lagging indicator. that means we need to first see credit extension coming back and then we may see after three to six months, some activity restoration to prizes precolored levels. and last maybe we could see labor market improvement. so it will take time. but at the moment i think clearly policymakers are very much on top of that and we think the priority at the moment should be set to get credit back on. shery: helen qiao, good to have your insights. apac economics head at bank of
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commodity space. oil continuing to gain pit we have seen gains -- given of course the squeeze on refined products not to mention russian diesel exports falling sharply. we have a variety of factors playing into the base metals space including chinese demand and concerns about it. we are seeing gas futures in the u.s. exceeding $4 for the first time ever. not to mention wheat prices continue to surge after the news that india has also restricted wheat exports. this of course as in the is now the world's second-largest grain producer. we were counting on the country to alleviate the supply constraints sparked by the war in ukraine. let's get more on this story from james poole. are we continuing to see these more protectionist measures against foods and grains? we heard the likes of indonesia also banning some exports of cooking oil.
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are we going to continue to see these trends? james: i think there is inevitability that we will see a gradual creeping food protectionism. we have already seen it. it has been evident over the last year or so. indonesia banned palm oil exports just a few weeks ago, and now we have india restricting wheat exports. it is allowing some exports on the government deals two countries like egypt. but yes, it is part of a wider trend. haidi: it suggests perhaps we could see sustained broader inflation globally. do we see any signs of rust by -- of respite? james: not really. it is not just wheat, it is also vegetable oils. we also have the war in ukraine, and ukraine is one of the biggest producers of sunflower oil globally, so that has really
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tightened supplies. it is a combination of increasingly erratic weather around the world over the last couple years. we had a canadian heat wave and drought last year. we have -- in the u.s., it's falling to the lowest production level since 1963. dry weather in the eu, and this heat wave in india which has produced this partial ban. and of course we have the war in ukraine, and ukraine was one europe's breadbasket for wheat. we have a critical situation here in terms of global photo supplies -- global food supplies. shery: is this really about food supplies or the future space being spoofed by potential shortages? james: there always is a strong element of speculation here, so
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investors are trying to anticipate the next move. we saw this knee-jerk reaction this morning when chicago futures prices went up almost 6% on the news over the weekend. and it is tempting to think that there will be some kind of reflection on this and the prices might come off a bit. so, you know, but investors are buying wheat and really anticipating trends here. and i think there is no doubt, whether you are an investor or an importer, that you need wheat for your meals to make bread. -- your mills to make bread. there is definitely a global shortage and a lot of concerns of where the wheat is going to come from over the next few months. haidi: james poole there. we're seeing a bitcoin recovery, it has managed to hold above $31,000, that's just after it
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plunged late last week after the collapse of the terra stable coin. su keenan us with the latest. does this show the resilience given have not gone just above 30,000, but $31,000? su: pit certain it looks that way. the ceo of bytedance said it looks like we have newfound resiliency. drop into the bloomberg to understand this better. in most of the recent crypto clashes, and you can go back to the crypto winter of 2018, it took months if not years to see a bounceback. and yet in a matter of days we have now seen a very brisk ounce back. a lot of green on the screen not just for bitcoin which is about $31,000, but for a lot of the coins. the big difference is you have a lot of institutional investors now and they see a pullback as a buying opportunity. after crypto's recovery on sound and the total market value of digital turn sees dropped by
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about $350 billion. so you still have some challenges for bitcoin. but terra usd is a very different story. bitcoin recovering from its being rocked by this deep stabilization,, - this destabilization. some of it not being able to be traced. haidi: it seems -- shery: it seems there was a buying opportunity for cathie wood as well. su: she bought coinbase, which was caught up in this whole rout because of crypto. she bought that while it was down. and check out the bloomberg once again. her fund, which was under severe selling pressure, actually saw inflows. the fifth straight week of inflows. she bought several hundred thousand shares of coinbase,
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which had plunged. that is a couple million shares. others have really put her fund in the crosshairs. her etf's really follow these beta futures-looking tech stocks that have been beaten badly. and there is concern that she has loaded up these funds with losers. but the loyal investor fan base has continued to sick with her. meanwhile, there are plenty willing to bet against her. there is a serious short interest in her etf fund. it is elevated above 15%. and there is an etf that bets against her strategy, delivering twice the inverse result. nonetheless, the ark fund, which not only bought coinbase on its dip, managed to see a lot more people coming back into the fund. shery: su keenan the latest on crypto. next, rebounding chinese stocks
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conservative but realistic given tough conditions expected this year, according to the company's coo, who spoke earlier with us. >> 2022, our forecast is, in fact, better than what we did in 2021 because of fundamental transformations we have done in our operations. having said that, when we look at the external conditions, the raw material, the supply chain challenges which we have, we tried be realistic. i would say our forecast is realistic. having said that, more and more, we have certainty moving forward that definitely our performance could be better. so, 2022, on one side we have opportunities coming from business operations. we have six months of customer orders. on the others we have external
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conditions. we have to balance both risk and opportunities. >> supply chain remains a major issue for automakers worldwide. in what sense are you getting some advantage from the weakness in the yen as well is the ability to source some parts domestically? >> you know, exchange rate is important. it is not the most important factor in the business. because it may impact you short-term but what is really important is to have the business strategy is based on midterm and the long-term. we do believe that 130 might have a short-term benefit to us but on the other side, our objective is to have the local competitiveness in all the regions in which we have. you have more than 40 plants and doing business in more than 170 countries. we need to have local competitiveness and that is what
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is our midterm and long-term objective. if the exchange rate is at 130, whether it is going to change our industry strategy to do electrification in the u.s., my answer is no. we went ahead and announced investment up to $500 million to do new nissan and infiniti electric cars. so once again, foreign exchange is important, but it is not the most important factor when you talk about mid to long-term strategy. shery: you have renault's top executives visiting japan at the moment. can you give us an indication of what sort of conversations are taking place? is there talk of rebalancing the stake? >> i would say at first, thanks to the ease of travel restrictions, after two years we are meeting altogether. these are all the business meetings to find more synergies in the alliance. and as you know, as part of
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renaultion -- as far as nissan is concerned, we're studying how renault wants to do it. and of course nissan as a partner would like to support them towards their business strategy. how we support it and to what extent, these are the this cautions we are doing now. there is no question of discussion of rebalancing as of today. we are more focusing on the businesses which can benefit each of our companies. shery: nissan coo ashwani gupta there. let's bring in david ingles for what to expect when it comes to the markets. we have seen some fatter stocks being supported. so some people are talking about
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china being a hedge. and yet, we have really been tempted to talk about that in the past and it has not worked out. so what do you make of this? david: no, it has not. it has worked in the last two or three weeks. to your earlier point, because it has fallen so much that it is seeing some relative stability over the last two or three weeks, the two week on your screens right now. we put together the csi 300 21 day correlation with msci world, the global develop benchmark. that has basically collapsed in terms of the co-relation. has there been a hedge recently? yes. does it remain a hedge moving forward? that is yet to be seen. haidi: what are you watching today in terms of sectors? we know properties will probably be a focus with the mortgage rate cut. david: yes. property, that is stocks and bonds, given you guys were talking about soon act earlier. we are looking at high-yield bonds also.
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reopening stocks, we know about shanghai starting today, in phases they will be reopening physical stores. so, the reopening plate is in focus. casino stocks is a group will be tracking very closely on the back of possible, and this is still in discussions, of possible cuts in taxes. we have a ton of data coming through, plus a medium-term lending facility. that rate will be set in about 25 minutes from now. haidi: that is it for daybreak: asia. we're looking ahead to the start of trading this monday in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. do stay with us. bloomberg markets the china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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