>> you are starting to see inflation peak, but where are we going to level out at? >> the markets are doing 110%. >> there's a lot of room to go for financial conditions to tighten and really for the fed to deliver on the hikes. >> the question is will there be further shocks to the system that mean inflation stays elevated. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: equities rallying hard this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 1.8% on the s&p.

retail sales just around the corner. tom: i look at s&p 500, and off that low, under 4000 on spx, we are nowhere near the midpoint. that is how depressed we have been. but we are working our way back, and you really wonder within a bear market, and of bear market, whichever it will be, is there something in the wind about china and the end of a lockdown? jonathan: looking ahead to the data as well stateside. we know how the consumer feels, dreadful. sentiment a decade low. what are they doing? we are going to find out at about 8:30 eastern. tom: retails will be a huge deal. it is not only the control group where they take out the variables that the pros do not look at, but i love that we have they nicole sy before we get to the economics and retail sales about what is actually going on in the stores. jonathan: a lot of retail sales earnings through the morning. home depot sales out.

lisa: they really beat expectations after sales were pummeled so for you today. -- so far year to date. the eps came in for the first quarter at $4.09 versus $3.86. how much are these specific stories of individual retailers able to cater to a lot of clients who are trying to price down versus a wholesale continued momentum in the consumer? jonathan: your to date, down 28.6 8%. coming into today, we are from or in the premarket. the homebuilders this year, absolutely dreadful. right on cue, j.p. morgan out yesterday saying -- remains per risk. he things we have priced in too much recession into this equity market. lisa: he's the biggest bull on the street, and you were saying earlier that when he capitulates everyone can get back in there. when one person keeps saying the same thing over and over again,

if the price goes down, you only like it better. it is a sale. he's consistent in that message. jonathan: when the big bull turns bearish, it is usually some sort of sign. the highest cash levels since 9/11 in the bank of america fund managers survey. gross optimism, record low. we have priced in a lot. tom: i am going to go to the cash level. this could be a number of things. but by perspectives, most long only by side each will funds, things like that have very rigid cash brackets so they can get up to a peak of cash, and they really can't go more by perspectives, so to see that cash level to september 11, 2001 is a big deal. jonathan: futures positive 1.9% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, up by 2.14%.

euro-dollar, 1.0477, firm or by 0.7%. -- by 0.4%. george survey lists -- george sarah vallas with things to say. lisa: this goes to the fear of a slow down with the fed perhaps not tightening as much as people are expecting and the eurozone preparing for perhaps being more hawkish than people currently expect. today it is all about retail sales. the retail bonanza already began with home depot. walmart reporting at 7:30 a.m. eastern. the s&p retailing index, just to give you a subsector here, down more from the s&p, nearly 28% year to date. how much have we baked in of some of the deceleration of spending that we haven't seen? ? quite that much last time we did get retail sales they did come in negative on inflation-adjusted basis. i'm so focused on housing.

when do we see it roll over after the increase in mortgage rates and pricing people out? we get the homebuilder sentiment survey at 10:00 a.m.. i want to point to the employee construction workers index, the people working in construction forget when that rolls over, that tends to be a recession signal. it has been consistently since the early 1980's. how much do we start to see that reflected by sentiment and the homebuilders? it is fed speak bonanza. basically one third of the government of the federal reserve will be speaking today. chair powell, james bullard, neel kashkari, loretta mester. who isn't speaking? what are they going to say? how do they message this going forward? one site do we get -- what insight do we get from beneficial saying we watch the data? jonathan: these former fed officials are not holding back. lisa: i would agree.

ben bernanke said they made a mistake, they missed the boat, they are facing stagflation. that is so unusual for a former fed chair to come out and criticize the standard leadership. that is what we saw. jonathan: what would you prefer to talk about, the fed speak or twitter? twitter right now and the premarket, the conversation looks a little something like this. twitter committed to completing the deal with musk on the price of $54.20. the number beside you is not $54.20. lisa: this means to me that the deal is off because it seems like elon musk was looking for an out after having buyer's remorse, saying perhaps he did not want to pay $54.20. twitter saying we are still going for $54.20. how much does this mean the deal is off? jonathan:jonathan: elon musk saying overnight that twitter must prove the spam proportion for the deal to move forward. tom: what is it, a $1 billion fee to walk away?

how far does that go into executive compensation to twitter? i don't know. the whole thing from day one has been a mess. where were we, 54 dollars on twitter? if i'm a, my head is spinning. jonathan: $36 90 since the price and the premarket. we will touch on that little bit later. doing this now, a man who has been holding a fair bit of cash, the portfolio manager of the blackrock global allocation fund. you have been holding a higher cash level than normal going into this. what have you been doing with it? guest:guest: good morning. we have not been doing much. we have been holding a high cash level. a little bit of an underweight to equities relative to our benchmark, and it represents a big underweight bonds, which thankfully, that has been the right trade year to date, but we think we are getting closer to a point where you want to bring some of that back, you are

probably not there yet. this question i think is the right question. when you look at the sentiment numbers, clearly there's a lot of pessimism in the market, more than we have seen in years. the flipside is we have not seen inflation like this in years. to me the big issue you have to resolve is how far is the fed going to go, how much do financial conditions tighten, and what is the right multiple in an environment that may look somewhat different than what we have been used to. tom: you have a lot of contacts in china. what is the end of a lockdown in china mean not only for asian assets, but for blackrock assets in the western world? russ: i think the end of the lockdown in china is going to be constructive for the global economy. you were speaking about it a few moments ago, the recession

shatter is picking up. one of the reasons is you've had china, at least large parts of it, shove down -- parts of it, shut down over covid restrictions. that has been a drag on the economy. we have seen in the retail sales numbers, other manufacturing data, if you start to loosen that up, some of the ships off the coast of shanghai concert to move, that is going to help remove one of the headwinds that the global economy has been struggling with over the past several months. lisa: you said you still have a lot of cash. you are not ready to deploy at yet. when you do, what are you going to be buying, and what are you waiting for to really say let's go? russ: at some point, unless using the fed is going to go to half of the fed funds rate, we are probably getting closer to the move and long-term yields, whether that is 3% or 3.25%. but a lot of the adjustment, a lot of the repricing and long-duration rates is probably

already occurred. at some point is going to be a benefit to rotating back. the other place, i'm not sure you are there yet, but it is starting to get interesting, some of the growth names. we are not talking about early growth. we are talking about profitable growth. this part of the market has completely given up dependent premium that went into it in 2020 and the early part of 2021. we are seeing a lot of names in mega cap tech that are highly profitable that can maintain margins, that are trading at a huge discount to where they were six or 12 months ago. if the rates side of the economy starts to moderate, i think there's an opportunity in those stocks as well. jonathan:jonathan: awesome to catch up as always. is working through what would lead to capitulation to some degree. this be fund managers survey is often talked about everything go month. they ask about 331 panelists

with assets under management a range of questions. they usually offer some commentary from b of a as well. "we are missing the full capitulation piece. investors expect rate hikes, not rate cuts. stocks are prone from an imminent air rally, but the low -- imminent bear rally, but the lows have not been reached." the note from michael hartnett of b of a this morning. tom: somewhere around 40 on vix is where you get that capitulation historically. nasdaq up 2.3%, 26 .54. this is confirmed across the data, most particularly in jonathan: jonathan: strong renminbi. that inverse correlation -- in strong renminbi. jonathan: we are starting to see equities klein -- to see equities climb. lisa: that is probably a sign not to deploy that cash yet. when you ceased ability and

yields, that seems to be the consensus among many people. jonathan: futures up 1.9% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up by 2.13%. jan hatzius joining us in around 50 minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. elon musk says he will go ahead with his $44 billion takeover of twitter only if the company can substantiate its claims about the proportion of bots on the service. twitter says fewer than 5% of its accounts are fake. musk says he believes the number is a lot higher. twitter says it is committed to completing the deal at the agreed-upon price. the euro area economy grew more than initially estimated at the start of the year. gdp rose 0.3% in the first quarter. european consumers emerged from the pandemic with pent-up demand and large amounts of savings.

still, the war in ukraine has added to cost-of-living concerns by stoking up energy prices and adding to an already record euros on inflation. turkeys president erdogan has put the brakes on nato's nordic expansion. erdogan says he will not allow sweden and finland to join the alliance because of their status on kurdish militants. erdogan called sweden a nesting ground for terrorists. several defense ministers are optimistic that the turkish can be resolved. that is according to logs of his posts reviewed by bloomberg. in december alone, he planned to commit the attack at least 17 times. discord says it is cooperating with law enforcement. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is put in continue -- if putin continues his heinous war of choice, the biden administration will work with you and our other partners to push russia further towards economic, financial, and strategic isolation. eventually ukraine will need massive support and private investment for reconstruction and recovery. jonathan: that was janet yellen

speaking at the brussels economic forum a little earlier today. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures positive on the s&p and the nasdaq as well. the nasdaq 100 up by more than 1.2%. yields higher by three basis points, 2.9113%. home depot with a beat and a raise for the full year outlook. there guidance higher. the stock is, too.speaking to the inflationary moment we are income, customer transactions fell in the quarter. the average ticket price increased. tom: there's the inflation there, and it is all going to be reported retail sales is not inflation-adjusted. home depot 22% per year is the performance in the last 10 years. apple of 24%. i guess they are allowed to pull back every once in a while. jonathan: what does the future hold? that is the focus now. tom: shares into strong hands is

really what is going on right now. i'm absolutely fascinated by the moment. i don't know what else to say. i'm riveted to the vix, 26.67 come way in from a 30 level. emily wilkins with us from bloomberg government. she knows the triumph of pennsylvania was to connect philadelphia with pittsburgh. jon ferro needs to get on the pennsylvania railroad and go out to altoona and horseshoe bend, which is an absolute miracle of where you train turns around in a circle. it also describes the republican party this election day in pennsylvania. how much of a bend does the republican party screwed up in pennsylvania -- party skirt up in pennsylvania? emily: there are a number of races happening across the country. you had donald trump come back

men that oz -- back memet oz, the famous tv doctor. now we have seen a late surge by candidate kathy barnett, a far right candidate, even further to the right of the candidate that trump-endorsed. she is black, she's a woman, and she's gaining a lot of momentum. i think this is a race a lot of people are looking at to see the power of trump's endorsement, does his candidate win, does oz win, but if he doesn't win, is it this further right candidate? if so, what does that mean for the future of the republican party? democrats are also putting up their own candidates. this will be competitive not just today, but again in november. . tom: the playbook here is simple. ronald reagan invented it. in a primary, you run to the extreme, and in the election, you come back towards the middle to get elected.

but that is shattered, isn't it? emily: there's a certain question, if you run super far to the right or left, it is going to make it that much difficult to come back to the center and that much difficult for your party to win. the big picture here for uber lukens -- for republicans is not is it oz who wins today. the question is if they get enough votes to control the senate after 2022. they are going to need states like pennsylvania to be able to do that. lisa: what are the legislative implications if the republicans do take the senate? emily: there are a number of potential things. of course, it depends on exactly how much they take the senate by. we've got a 50-50 senate right now. democrats technically have control, but we have seen them fail time and time again to be able to move president biden's agenda forward. republicans could find themselves in a similar situation if they only have a slight majority. but it basically means they could wind up having major

issues if biden wants to nominate additional individuals to his cabinet or to the administration. republicans could really delay and back that up. i think most critically, if republicans take control of the senate and we get another opening on the supreme court, there is a good chance, given the precedent we have seen, they are going to deny biden's potential nominee, and that could lead to another giant battle like the one we saw after the passing -- after one of the other justices several years back. lisa: we have seen the inflation situation and how that is going to be framed going into the midterm elections. how have the lines been drawn going into these primaries? emily: it is interesting, my election reporter brain when you think lines being drawn, i keep thinking about redistricting and how much of an impact that is having, particularly in the house races. but really, i think there has been a big question, a lot of it goes back to the hold trump has

on the party. as we saw last tuesday, that is still pretty significant. you saw the trump-endorsed candidate advance in the ohio senate primary. that is going to be another competitive one come november. you also saw some of his endorsed candidates and other competitive races, -- so i think tonight the big question is what is going to be the power of trump's endorsement. are we going to see a continuation of the pattern we have seen in previous weeks? jonathan: emily, thank you. these politicians, washington, d.c. facing down a big problem, a cost-of-living problem. governor bailey of the bank of england was talking about this yesterday and made some questionable headlines. he was asking people, hired paid workers, to think and reflect about asking for more money. he went on to say, "in the

situation we are in which is very difficult for low income households and particularly where inflation is concerned, it is important to bear that in mind when you are thinking about these things." that is governor bailey to politicians, asking people to pull back on asking for a raise is not going to make you the most popular man in the room. tom: we mentioned that yesterday, the under cabinet secretary. i don't know the details, but basically saying go out and find a better job. to be clear here, the financial markets are separate. we are looking at an update day today. but this inflation story and particularly globally, the food story is separate. i looked at the world a comic forum website today as we traveled two dollars, and i was funders struck -- the world economic website today as we travel to davos, and i was thunderstruck how disconnected

they are from the food crisis. jonathan: wait, you're surprised that the world economic forum was disconnected? lisa looking forward to getting a taste of this next week. lisa: are you? [laughter] it is true, basically people talk about what the individuals don't talk about wealth inequality. tom: there we go. lisa: it is what it is. tom: occupy davos. [laughter] jonathan: futures up 1.8% on the s&p come on the nasdaq up 2.1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, good morgan. -- at jp morning things we are pricing in much. warren buffett put in money to work. features right now by 1.7% on the s&p. up to put one on the nasdaq.

we have a fund manager survey out of bank of america. cash levels at doubles we haven't seen for a long time. have we priced into much to this bond market? twos, tens, 30's, high yields after hitting 320. 10-year by three basis points. the correlation between equities and bonds. that is something to keep an eye on. into the fx market, euro-dollar shaping up as follows -- 105.20. maybe we can get that to 110 because tightening financial conditions will push the fed away and the ecb is yet to come in. that is one view. lisa: to really edify the point

out of deutsche bank, we got data from the euro area economy that came in better than expected that the economy grew more than people have been pricing in. how much does that support the idea that too much bad news has been priced into the euro? jonathan: tum might stay awake during the whole thing. -- tom might stay awake during the whole thing. tom: central-bank speakers today. it was two or three banners long on television. jonathan: lisa said the same thing 30 minutes ago. are you comparing aronowitz to lagarde? tom: don't know. jonathan: i would love to see

what happened to the peripheral bond market after you finish. lisa: just check the italian bond market. tom: we will be going to davos. we can assure you as we look back 10 to 12 years, it is occupy davos with abramowitz. she will be traveling to davos it is in a hermetically sealed case. can we move on? lisa: let's move on. tom: careful analysis of the housing market and the american consumer better. the data with mastercard on what consumption is doing she is the chief u.s. economist for mastercard economic institute. what is the distinction you see in the mastercard data? >> good morning. the data as we have been talking about has shown solid consumer.

right now the transaction data is still outspending. as we look forward and think about all of these different factors driving consumer spending with costs going up, we are seeing a shift in the economic cycle towards moderation and we should see that show through in the data. in the meantime, seeing strong spending trends. tom: you look at 10% of america, another 10%, another 10%. can you state the middle class will be crushed by this inflation? michelle: i don't think that's right. when you look at the fundamentals of the household sector and the court middle-class, that is a

population that has been able to accumulate savings over the last several years. you saw the chart that was shown a little bit ago shown earlier on the morning show that had the level of outright savings, the differential between your income and what is being spent, the actual savings rate has come down for the stock of savings is really high. debt levels are still low. the middle income consumer that had the savings out there that could be used and access to credit should be able to buffer some of the headwinds we are seeing right now. lisa: with your mastercard mug beside you but you are seeing revolving loans picking up. people might be spending savings but increasingly they are charging and taking out credit. how much is the american consumer leveraging up to fortify spending when costs are skyrocketing?

michelle: it is just starting that you are seeing consumers take on debt again after the last year and a half of deleveraging. after -- unlike a typical recession, consumers were able to reduce debt level because they had so much additional income coming in that they were able to use to support their spending trends. you entered this cycle and we are in a recovery with a low debt level relative what -- what you normally see. when you think about the ability to use credit cards more, it is certainly there and you look at the g 19 data from the federal reserve, revolving credit is picking up and has been picking up for the last several months. we are getting back to those outstanding levels for consumer credit. there is plenty of room left to go for consumers to use credit

cards to help support spending trends. lisa: are all people worried about recession, worried about the sky falling? michelle: i think there is the idea of looking at with the data is showing versus thinking about the different range of outcomes. when you look at the data, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, you have inventory to rebuild. there is still momentum left in the economy. of course we will slow from the 5.5% growth we had last year. 2.5% is more reasonable and that will feel like a shift. you will see the job growth we have been enjoying, closer to trend. that change in the economy is i think what people are so focused on and worried about. the reality is, we were overstimulated last year and

running well in excess of what we should have been. we are now moderating back to the proper underlying trend. as we look further, we had the fed tightening and trying to execute the great rebalancing, which is going to be tricky, and i think that is what we are focused on -- how well do we get to the proper landing in the economy? jonathan: you said plenty of room to go. does that have implications for how high the fed has to go to curtail demand? michelle: that is a critical point when you think about the terminal rate in the hiking cycle. we are looking at an economy that has a large buffer right now, a lot of spending going on and good incentive for investment. to rebound to support the rebound in the economy, you need to pull demand and it is coming from a high point.

unless there is a big support from the supply side to get that rebalancing, the fed will have to push a little more and certainly more than we have seen in the last few cycles. this is not the last business cycle. it is different. tom: what is the dynamic you see away from the mastercard on the international effect on the gdp and recession call, the mix of export growth and import growth? is it going to be such a drag to get this towards a summe recovery evend though the economy is good? michelle: huge moves in exchange rates in glass economies -- in class economies and growth economies. when i think about the international story, i am most focused on how that is impacting supply chains, particularly the

good side of the economy where the imbalance has been the most acute, where the u.s. consumers have been actively buying goods, vehicles, electronics, home appliances, and furniture and the supply chain has been impaired. the extent to which that gets resolved because of support from the global environment, changes in policies, that is the critical factor to how we think about how far the fed has to push and when we get this equilibrium in the economy that we are waiting for. jonathan: can i have a mastercard mug? michelle: we can make that happen. jonathan: i have been requested to make mugs for bloomberg surveillance that says good morning, good morning. tom: we have a supply

disruption. i ordered months ago. jonathan: you are waiting? tom: i am waiting. jonathan: that is a shot glass, not a mug. tom: we sold out of those eight years ago. jonathan: teaches positive by 1.7. lissa asking the most important question of the interview, just a much scope is there to take more leverage? this is an argument that has been made repeatedly that household balance sheets are stronger this time and they have more space and because of that the fed has to go higher. that is what separates them. lisa: michelle edifying that idea saying, that is true and if the fed worried about consumer demand, they will have to slow things faster than they are

because they are still taking out credit and spending. jonathan: will get the chief economist at goldman sachs, coming up shortly. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: elon musk causing more uncertainty on whether he well actually by twitter. he said he won't move ahead with the takeover unless twitter can prove that bought make up fewer -- bots make 5%. he says he thinks there are more. twitter says they are going to make it happen at the price. a procedural will set up senate passage of legislation with a military package and humanitarian assistance which has been held up by republicans

who have demanded changes. ever laboratories -- abbot laboratories will be allowed to make baby formula and a plant in michigan which could help ease the shortage appeared the plant has been shut since february after four children were sickened by bacteria, two died. it boosted outlook for the year after first quarter revenues. continued strong demand for home improvement supplies. customer transactions fell in the quarter. a multiyear -- came to a close at 70's -- at somebody's -- at sotheby's. $922 million, the most valuable

collection ever sold at auction. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the drop in industrial production in china in april is going to affect shipment that arrive in may and june. that means we are just now beginning to feel the impact of the slowdown. the worst is yet to come on this side of the pacific. jonathan: really fluffy thoughts from carl weinberg. this is "bloomberg surveillance." the nasdaq up by 2.4. a nice lift for home depot come up by 3.65%.

transaction volume lower but ultimately the average price heading higher. tom: life goes on and corporations will adjust. energy companies will adjust by trying to hide with the prophets are. brent crude at well over 115. that is something we haven't focused on. jonathan: looking forward to the number. tom: in china, a conversation that does affect america and europe. i want to go from hong kong and the headlines in shanghai to bloomberg's reporting of a protest at beijing university. there, one of the professors talked about "deep unhappiness." what is the level of deep unhappiness along the leadership of government in beijing? >> there has certainly been

speculation at the top of the government. they are concerned about the impact of covid zero. we know in terms of open source materials, people of set in terms of daily lives. we cannot be too scientific about this. there is no outward sign of division and we know the government continues to enforce the broad coven -- covid zero approach though it is having an impact on residents. they are sticking to the policy. tom: is there a vaccination plan in a big city or across china? edna: one of the interesting things to come out of the covid outbreak in recent months is the

vaccination rate of the elderly, and a feeling that is one of the reasons china cannot adjust its covid zero policy because with the obvious ramifications it would have. we know the three shots have been proven to be effective but not as effective as the mrna. they are still behind. authorities suggest that population is one herbal and why they cannot make an abrupt pivot. lisa: forgive my skepticism, but do you really believe that china on the mainland, we knew hong kong has moved away but they still have covid zero policies and you cannot get zero covid. if you are going to have any

traveling it seems highly challenging. edna: highly challenging is right. even though they call it covid zero or dynamic zero, at the very least what they want to do is to control community spread and limit big outbreaks that would avoid having to go to full lockdown. even that will be disruptive. we are getting that out of beijing where there are heavy daily testing and lockdowns in some parts. if you assume those will go to the same place. it will test covid zero and breach the defense of hong kong. hong kong leader said the city can live with several cases as long as it is not out of control. lisa: you wonder about travel

between the mainland and hong kong. how is it having the residence have to be locked down and having trouble getting food. edna: there is frustration with residents. there is frustration among the business community. they are speaking out loudly both in china and hong kong. traveling in and around hong kong and internationally and there is a broad feeling the policy is not sustainable. china had big dividends. the economy was allowed to grow and they avoided a public health disaster. now it is in a new space and now covid zero is being tested by omicron. our questions about just how long the government can stick with this.

tom: an unfair question, do they even hold the party congress? we see 2000 people in the room clapping ever so lightly. can they hold that congress given the lockdown? edna: they have the winter -- had the winter olympics and that was somewhat of a success. they have been running a bubble for factories but you hear accounts of how impractical that is. that will be surely difficult to have a gathering and not have infections but if anyone can do it, china can. there will be quarantined on arrival and testing weeks in advance of the congress itself. it is very challenging pull off but if and when can do it, china can. jonathan: enda curran , breaking things down on hong kong.

w t i, 115. brent crude, 115. tom: when you see a spike up and it has been a spike from a 102 level 115, i look at the thing averages, which are subjective. the model i use, we just cropped above the peak moving average of march. emotionally, that is a huge deal , even though it is a one-day spike, it feels high even though we have recently been up near 140. jonathan: wti up by 53 year to date. lisa: we have gotten a lot of fluctuations in that. as oil prices go higher, the refined products like gasoline have gone yet higher still because there has been a shortage of refineries and

services. i am watching this closely because this is how it percolates out into consumer spending and bills people pay at home every day. jonathan: have we met the point of demand destruction yet? lisa: we are seeing it in airlines. in the united states, this has been the dilemma. people can spend one way or another and presents away to fed. jonathan: the chief economist at goldman sachs, coming up. with features high, 1.65% on the s&p, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> you are starting to see inflation peak, where are we going to level out at? >> i don't know if we are going to unravel. >> there is a lot of room to go for financial conditions to tighten and for the fed to deliver on the hikes. >> the question is will there be further shocks to the system that mean inflation stays elevated? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: five from new york city for our audience