tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 19, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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>> volatility and recession, those words are taking over the arctic conversation. "bloomberg markets" starts now. -- the market conversation. "bloomberg markets" starts now. in just the last couple of minutes, you of already seen stocks reverse some gains. we were up. you had tech lead the s&p 500 in positive territory suggesting features a 1.5% drop.
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we are now down .5%. put that into the context of volatility, it is not that much. dare i say it. something to keep an eye on is also the vix, looking at the handle at a 30. this is important, the postwar norm after the russian invasion of ukraine has been a volatility gauge of about 30. to drop below 30 suggest some sustainable run when it comes to a rally but keep your eye on that because that might suggest when the turn run or bottom actually is in. we have to talk about the bond market, which is catching a bid. treasuries attractive again. is this the safe haven been at work here. you see the 10 year yield, 283, down five basis points. when you see yields lower, you see the dollar strength that we have been talking about, not there today and weakening i almost 1%. joining me are experts on equity space and epic space, christopher kane and eric nelson. chris, let's start with you here because i feel like the equities selloff is definitely grabbing
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headlines. i have to ask, what is the signal that will show it is time to buy? >> we have been looking that that as far as when the bottom will be in, when there is some evidence of capitulation, so the short answer, we are getting close. we do not think we are there yet . a couple statistics for technical perspective. when you look at the rsi, working day rsi is currently around 36. the s&p 500, when you see bottoms, typically lower than that. that would imply we have further to go eerie when you look at how my knee stocks in the index are down over 20% from their highs, that would be 43% right now. typically for bottoms you see that over 50. we saw over 50 in 2011, 2015, 2018 so we are not there yet. when you look at stocks over the 50 day moving average, that a 17%. a lot of those defensive end value stocks, that typically goes down to 5%. we are getting there, but we
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have not seen the broad-based washout. it does seem dramatic but it is kind of concentrated in specific parts of the market. kriti: it's interesting we are talking about that because it always felt like him this kermit selling -- felt like indiscriminate selling. erica, let you bring -- let me bring you into this. the bloomer dollar index was rallying to almost a 20 year high when you look back and you see weakness today. what is going on? eric: i think the word indiscriminate certainly describes the price action today in terms of the dollar being sold again, essentially everything. let stand out to me over the past dare so or is you have investors challenging or questioning this narrative of u.s. growth outperformance and resilience. yesterday, we heard from some really important retail names, concerns over sort of over inventory, over hiring, these things really ringing the dollar supremacy into question.
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in the short-term, maybe the dollar is a little overbought. we can see and pull back your but in our view, this macroenvironment, what we are really seeing is a rotation away from goods and towards services. the performance -- the underperformance makes perfect sense and is not really challenge our sort of medium-term view of u.s. growth resilience and outperformance. we were inclined at this point to continue to buy u.s. dollars on dips, especially against some currencies where central banks are not keeping up. so certainly the british pound when we are targeting and even maybe the euro as we get higher here in some of these currencies against the dollar. kriti: it is interesting when we talk about the dollar and macro sphere because one of the big pieces of perhaps the stock market action in the past two years -- i don't want to say just now -- has been the dollar and currency picture. how attractive is it for foreign investors. that is my turn of the day but i want to come to you, chris, and
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ask him much of the bid right now or selling is driven either strength or weakness you are seeing in the greenback? christopher: i think a lot of it is driven. i'm not a currency expert but certainly the rally in the dollar over the last couple months is indicative of a risk up situation, certainly in the equity markets. we have seen that. i think it is indicative of the sentiment. right now people want safety and you see that in the factors. that is what i typically focus on and i see low volatility stocks crushing high volatility stocks over the last couple of months. same with value, crushing expensive counterparts over the last couple months. i think sentiment driven and you definitely see that in the greenback. kriti: erik, does it work the other way too? do you see in theory and in the last two years do you see capital flows perhaps go to the dollar in order to access the stock market when it comes to funds abroad? erik: if anything, i more about the opposite happening. we look back to the late 1990's
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and early 2000's, you saw substantial outflows from u.s. equities that have been bid up acidly by foreign investors and that may have played a role in some of the dollar weakness we saw in the early 2000's. so it is a tale risk scenario, not something i'm thinking about as a base case, but if we see substantial outflows out of u.s. tech, u.s. stocks more generally into maybe european value, u.k. value, that could be something that challenges our dollar narrative over the next six month or so. kriti: so the dollar bullish narrative, technically speaking, you are heading against levels we have seen in march 2020, novels and 2016 before that. how much strong or does the dollar get from here? erik: what is interesting, if you look at the positioning in euro and frankly a lot of these pairs, it is not stretched to the point where i am worried about a positioning-based
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reversal. looking back in 2018, everyone was short and euro. even the dollar yen, positioning a stretch but not an extreme or all-time high. so levels like friendly parity on euro-dollar by the end of the year, to me is as a very realistic proposition and once we see some of the washout in dollar-yen positioning, it could see a renewed trend higher in that toward 135-140 by the end of the year. kriti: christopher kane and erik nelson, thank you both for your time, a crucial market for the -- crucial time of the markets. we see the s&p five down -- s&p 500 down. apple executive previewing its upcoming mixed reality headset to the company's board last week. that's according to people familiar with the matter. we will get more in on that subject but for now, get more on that subject right now and ed ludlow joins us from san
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francisco. walk us through the development we hear on the apple matters. ed: apple has been working on an augmented or virtual reality headset for a number of years. sources tell us in a bloomer scoop by mark, you know him very well, the board which meets four times a year was shown the latest version of this headset at their meeting and we care because it is a pretty good sign that it is in the advanced stages. this is an area apple is trying to use, augmented virtual reality, to boost its hardware business, hardware fink we makes up a percent of sales and a lot of that dominated by the iphone and it is looking to the future about how we can grow the top line through hardware and different types of hardware that would boost services revenue as well. kriti: as we speak, apple shares down 1.9%. let's see if it gives it a little bit of a tailwind. another thing getting a tailwind's twitter. you see shares spike up almost 1%. this coming after the twitter/musk deal is proceeding as expected according to
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executives telling staff. tell us what we know on that matter. ed: we understand according to sources that there is a twitter all hands going on right now and executives are standing virtually and in person in front of twitter staff saying that " there is no such thing as a deal on hold." you remember elon musk tweeted several days ago that his bid to buy twitter was "temporarily on hold" because he had concerns about the proportion of users on the platform that were bots. he was not satisfied with the language in a regulatory filing by twitter that less than 5% of the platform was made up of bots and he wanted more data, more evidence to assuage his fears be are what we are hearing is right now as we speak, that is what employers are told by twitter executives, that the deal as far as they are concerned is proceeding as planned, $54 20 sense per share.
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it is not -- $54.20 per share. it is not being reevaluated and no such thing as a deal on hold. kriti: the saga continues. now that we see twitter shares are still spiking $37 handle, a far cry away from the $54.20 that elon musk is offering. at low -- ed ludlow, think you so much. time for bloomberg's first word news. mark: at the white house, president biden back to finland and sweden's bids to join nato. in the face of opposition from turkey. mr. biden met with the finished president and swedish ambassador a day after the countries applied to become members of the defense alliance. pres. biden: this is about the future. this is about a revived nato that has the tools and resources , the clarity and conviction to defend our shared values and lead the world. mark: turkey's president has blocked the two countries former
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nato applications from moving forward, claiming they support kurdish militias. the united states has identified its first case this year, the so-called monkeypox virus, adding to a growing number of confirmed and suspected infections in the u.s., portugal, and spain. the massachusetts health department reported the case of an adult male who had recently traveled to canada where some monkeypox -- monkeypox infections had been identified. monkeypox is a rare abrupt intensely serious viral illness -- but potentially serious viral illness. senate majority leader chuck schumer and rafael warnock met with the president at the white house, they want $50,000 in student loan relief, five times with the president has indicated he would support. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is
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with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want—your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with unbeatable business solutions from comcast business. powering possibilities™. kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." president biden offering his strong support for finland and sweden's bid to join nato. pres. biden: new members joining
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nato is not a threat to any nation. it never has been. nato's purpose is to fend against aggression, to defend in the face of aggression. nato has not grown weaker or more divided. it has grown stronger, more united with finland and feed -- sweden's decision to request membership in nato, it will be enhanced for all time. kriti: the president's comments come in the face of opposition from turkey. joining us to discuss is bloomberg opinion columnist bobby goetsch, and absolutely -- absolute pleasure. let start with a turkey story because when you think of nato becoming kind of this western alliance, turkey is not the first name that comes to mind. what is the crux of turkeys issue? bobby: turkeys issue with europe in general, with nato in particular has always been over kurdish separatists. there are different shades of kurdish separatists, some of
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whom turkey and the united states categorizes as terrorist groups. some of these activists live and work in nordic countries, including sweden, to a lesser extent finland. what turkey is saying is that it once its concerns to be taken more seriously, and once these countries to act against this kind of activism, to crack down against it and possibly to expel people that it regards as terrorists from living in places like stockholm and helsinki. kriti: it's fascinating that happens because, for context for our audience, sweden is actually a refugee grounds for hundred thousand kurds -- 100,000 kurds and that is the basis why turkey says they are nesting ground for terrorist organizations. geopolitics at play. i have to ask about finland, where did finland fall? bobby: there's a population of refugees in finland, not as large as sweden and sweden, and in addition to the large number,
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there are several members of the swedish parliament of turkish origin. turkey colors them all with the same brush. what turkey is doing is opportunistically using this moment to try and force its agenda onto nato. we have known for weeks these countries were going to apply and for weeks turkey had the opportunity to say where its objection lay -- objections light but president erdogan chooses not to do that. he is choosing to do that in the 11th hour which smacks of opportunities him -- opportunism. kriti: i want to bring in another guest to join with us. she is fantastic, foreign policy research fellow at center for european policy studies. tina, thank you as always and she is joining us on the phone but we appreciate it. i have to pose the question to you, we have heard about the qualms turkey has with the swedish and finnish membership
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into nato, what is their response and why are they perhaps not as willing to concede on some of the requests turkey is making? tina: sure, many things for having me. so basically i will just resonate the speaking point of the previous speaker and reiterate turkey as being opportunistic here erie however, we can already see that sweden and finland are all negotiation's. we could already observe their statement that they are not friends with terrorism and they do not support this organization that turkey perceives as being a top security treaty for itself. so they see for the negotiation and gain having to take into account turkey is pushing its own agenda. i can see that powers of turkey can be pretty much resolved and this is a matter of
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negotiations. however, what i would probably bring into the discussion is the russian factor. what turkey is doing is trying to play a balancing act between nato, ukraine, and russia at the same time. this is a difficult game because if we look at how turkey was framing its foreign policy, supporting ukraine since the start of the war, it closed trades and limiting russian vessels, it was remediation and during high-level talks between ukraine in march -- ukraine and russia in march. however it was abstaining from the sanctions from russia. these reiterates for turkey opposing the nato extension now and ticks the box of the trial or attempt to normalize the situations. kriti: when we talk about these geopolitics, we have to include china into the conversation. in fact, the issues between the united states and china seem to be this overhang in terms of the
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legacy perhaps of the trade war and previous tensions of the overhang of the sponsor the worn ukraine. how do sweden and finland work with china here? tina: so sweden and finland are democracy states. when we talk about turkey and russia, these are hypocrisies that always -- to each other. the other thing is dependent on china through the economic relations, which is not summing to be ignored, and also russia and turkey, we can see turkey is also dependent on the russians and this is why it was sensitive on making a statement or joining the nato agenda. so this is not to be dismissed from the discussion. however, again, the strong unity in nato and others will make once more the point clear that nato will -- the democratic
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states and it should meet no autocracy states neither russia or china to decide to oppose the sovereign states, to make their own decisions, their own choices. so nato expansion will make this point clear once more. kriti: i want to introduce comments here that we had earlier from the chief u.s. policy strategist addressing the china issue. listen to what he had to say. >> i do think china has to worry. if they tried to pull what russia did, they would face enormous world sanctions, they would not succeed militarily, so i think that would be a signal that has already been well received by beijing. kriti: so we will turn to you, bobby. you heard the china issue and now let's come full-circle and where the china story with the turkey story because it kind of seems like the united states has a lot of falls in the air right now. bobby: it does.
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the u.s. and biden administration for months have been saying it wants to pay more and more attention to asia and we have been hearing about this pivot to asia for three different presidents now but europe still keeps getting in the way. russia gets in the way, the middle east gets in the way. it is the ability to keep all of these balls in the air that defines a superpower. there is an old cliche about whether a country can walk and chew gum at the same time. i was argued a superpower should walk, chew gum, and hum a tune at the same time. that is the situation ayden faces now. he has to deal china, deal with russia, and he has to deal with a smaller power of turkey that has the ability in this peculiar structure of nato where all 30 members each has a veto power. a country like turkey can punch way above its weight. it is a challenge for american diplomacy but it is a challenge the united states is facing for 70 some years and should be able
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to preserve it. kriti: 30 seconds, let me give you the last word, what we watch for in these next engines? -- tensions? tina: even if this resistance from the turkey sustains which i don't think will happen, we can see the security guarantees from other member states for finland and sweden. so even if the formal exception keeps failing, they still enjoy the benefits and this would only cause turkey being held into the political isolation from the alliance. kriti: tina akhvlediani and bobby ghosh a bloomberg opinion, thank you so much. the u.s. senate clearing $40 billion of ukraine aid package now headed for biden's signature. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kriti: this is "bloomberg markets" and i am kriti gupta. after finding it difficult to keep up with inflation, what happened to the inflation hedge trade? it used to be so simple, you sell bonds and by bitcoin, how does it work? or buy tech, for insulated and enable -- and able to weather some supply-chain challenges. when we look at performance, it is not quite work that way. this is a chart of the major financial indexes, s&p 500, treasuries, commodities, and bitcoin in red. you can see as an inflation hedge, the only thing that outperformed here was commodities. this purple line appear and it moved pretty well. here is a problem, what happens when you have scarcity in those commodities? food inflation, and those become so volatile you see open interest collapse? that will be the major issue, especially when it comes to whether or not it going, the s&p
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500 treasuries or commodities are the correct inflation hedge. we are going to break all of this down for you in the next couple hours and next couple months. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.
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a german official says he's confident that the group of seven finance chiefs will be able to reach an agreement on additional financial aid for ukraine. >> we feel responsible for the capability of the ukrainians state and its people to defend themselves. we see a number of euros that are needed for the foreseeable future in the next months. mark: agencies have unveiled a plan to tackle a global food crisis. there was a felony hearing this morning for an 18-year-old accused of killing 10 people and killing -- injuring three others in buffalo. he has been charged with first-degree murder and pleaded not guilty. 11 victims are black and the
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alleged shooter is white. supreme court justices will receive round-the-clock security at home. u.s. marshals have been order to step up their protection after following delete draft opinion advocating that abortion rights be overturned. the league lead to nationwide protests including some outside the homes of supreme court justices. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: let's dive in on the price action. it has been a volatile session and week, month, year.
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we can start with the terminal chart. it is a risk off tone. we were down as much as 1.5% in futures trading. this is something to watch. you are looking at a vix with a 30 handle. is this the kind of volatility we should expect from the remainder of the year? stick with me on the bond story. if you are playing out of stocks, are you going into bonds? with the yield down, the dollar weaker as well, now following the interest-rate story as opposed to the haven story. >> we continue to track the technology stocks. the nasdaq had moved into bear territory earlier this year. we saw investors willing to buy certain technology names, but
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then you have the drag in the forms of cisco. it is taking network equipment along for the ride. down for the day. we are reminded constantly about the challenges for companies as they continue to share their out -- outlooks. kriti: the ceo of -- >> it is the single most efficient competitive market in the world hands down. we should think about how we have far more companies the public companies where their success is enjoyed by american investors saving for retirement or otherwise. what we keep piling onto the list of obligations and responsibilities for a public company discourages that from happening. we have seen thousands of fewer companies in the public markets today than 25 years ago.
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i hate to say it, but shame on washington for forcing so many opportunities outside of the line of sight of the american investing public. >> that was the citadel ceo earlier today. he said recession was inevitable, but not in the next few months. our next guest is with vanguard. that is what investors are trying to figure out. interesting hearing him talk about the value of being public. but many stocks are challenged right now. >> thank you for having me. we are seeing market volatility that is clearly unfortunate and unpleasant. we entered the year with lofty
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valuations in the technology space. unsustainable zero interest rates. our view is that at some point, we would see this sort of correction. certainly, that is upon us. kriti: i have to ask about the volatility and the economic cycle. historically, a recession is supposed to come every three to five months. do we return to the old regime of a recession every three to five years? >> i think it's possible, although still less likely. decades ago, we had greater incidence of recessions. more manufacturing-based economy, high inventory swings. now, recession is clearly likely and possible and we will have them in the future. i don't think three to five years should be a golden rule. >> just to broaden things out, i want to go back to something she
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said a few moments ago that the stock bond correlation which is flipped back to negative, it was positive for much of this year. when you see something like that, does it send a message to you about how the bond market is interpreting how aggressive the fed is or is it a garden-variety risk off mentality? >> ultimately, stock bond correlations turn positive when inflation is rising faster than expected. that was the first part of this year. i think the crest will come, but it will remain elevated. if we start to see a cresting in inflation, the fed is poised for action after an extended time of easy policy. i think we will continue to see -- we will start to see a zero correlation between stocks and
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bonds. kriti: let's talk about currency. the strengthen the dollar is extreme. if -- you have to go back 20 years to see that kind of dollar strength. is that what we're in for? >> we will be hard-pressed to see continued gains. right now, at least by my best judgment, most of the bond market repricing is complete. we had a view that the fed was going to take rates to roughly 3% at the high point in this cycle. that looks to be the general consensus now. to see further dollar strength, and further action in the bond market, you would need to see additional repricing and more of -- more aggressive fed policy. we would need to see wage growth continue to accelerate. jon: back to equities, we were
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wondering this week would you see the official bear correction for the s&p 500. the essence -- the nasdaq had already gotten there. what is your assessment of growth stocks after the selling pressure we have already seen at this point? >> we're trying to look out over the next three to five years. women do that, the valuation normalization -- when we do that, the valuation normalization is extended. most of that has unraveled. it has not been fully completed. there could be additional volatility in the months and one or two years. the gap that we thought would close between more value-based crop -- companies and growth based companies has clearly narrowed. both have been negative this
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year, but it has been more significant for the growth oriented stocks. kriti: what's interesting to me whether it's tech or other retailers, it's a level of punishment investors seem to be giving them. take target for example, but does it justify a 25% decline in a single day? you think the reaction to these developments are too extreme? >> i think we are starting to approach it. it is an inverse to where we were a year ago when it was almost bad news is good news. we are unraveling some of that. part of it is unraveling of financial conditions. if we have consumer price inflation, we had asset price inflation a year ago. the healthy mix is somewhere in between, but markets show we can swing the pendulum. we are swinging toward a more aggressive stance financial
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markets. toward the end of the year, we should see more normal activity if our forecast is correct. jon: i would imagine if you are expecting the recessionary risk, we would be watching for more companies talking about possible changes to their earnings outlook. it is been such a busy week on that front. i was just alluding to what cisco had to tell us about given these backer implications. >> i am looking at two things. in terms of earnings, we have to count for the fact that we are always going to see a rotation from the goods side spending to more service-based spending. we saw that in target yesterday. the other thing is to lines. wage growth is high.
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if inflation can come down slightly yet wage growth remain robust, we will see continued recovery. the recession odds will go back down to zero. that's a big if and if those two lines cross will be the key for the next six months. kriti: i want to mention one stock moving which is after executives say the deal to sell the company to elon musk is moving forward as planned. that it will not renegotiate the price. the top lawyer said at a meeting that there is no such thing as a deal being on hold. pushing back on claims from elon musk that he is pausing the deal while he is learning about the number of bought into spam accounts. we will bring that story to you as we learn more. coming up, what this means for
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business seems to be good for canada goose. >> we have seen a deluge of stories of retailers with come to margins. retailers posting warnings for the upcoming year. canada goose is a different tale altogether. we are seeing demand for their high end. affluent consumers are still willing to spend on luxury goods despite the inflationary pressures they are experiencing at the pump or the grocery store. it wasn't just a forecast of increased sales and profit for the upcoming year which beat wall street expectations. their margins are also a big part of the story. they are expecting margins in the high 60's. they recently saw their margins grow. they said this is partly because of increased pricing, but they also noted on the conference call that they have a unique
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manufacturing network. 84% of their product are produced in canada. 14% in europe. they said that his insulated the company from the supply chain problems and production problems that have plagued their peers. kriti: for years, canada goose has been trying to grow outside of the cold weather season. >> they don't just want to be a cold season company. they want to be relevant during the shoulder season and maybe even the summer season. they have been making a push into the light down products. canada goose's non-park a sales group. they say this is robust compared to what they have seen previously. they also recently launched shoes. whether or not we will see a
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canada goose bikini line, never say never. that is perhaps a bridge too far for a company like this. >> thank you as always for joining us. let's pivot with the war in ukraine and lockdowns in china, the global economy is taking a hit and it may only get worse. joining us now is our guest from panama city who cowrote a story. what does a world without globalization of the last 20 years actually look like? >> china lockdowns, ukraine war, these are taken a big toll on growth in 2022. we just cut our global growth forecast from 4.8% down to 3.1%. the global economy is going to be $1.6 trillion poorer than if
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russia had stayed between its own borders and china had stayed covid free. inflation will move higher as well. the forward moving question is what is a world that is fractured along geopolitical lines look like? we run some models and it's not pretty. less trade, less productivity growth. as a consequence, the world is poorer than it would have been if mobilization stayed on track and potentially with persistently higher prices. >> it is pretty remarkable to think about the economic consequences of a reversal of globalization. we were just having a conversation about a company like canada goose that is having big inroads in china. i wonder what this would mean for these companies that have bet on global growth? >> that's right.
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of course, there are powerful arguments against deglobalization. canada goose and its china sales are one example. another example is a company like apple with its production and meshed in the asian supply chain. corporate interests are clearly lobbying against deglobalization. if the interest don't went out, if the geopolitical fault lines china and the u.s., democratic and nondemocratic countries do continue to split apart, for countries like kennedy's -- canada goose, companies and electronic sector, this is a more challenging environment. it potentially breaks up supply chains and it means they find it harder to tap global markets for their sales. jon: helpful context and a fascinating read. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what we are seeing in the markets is a rotation from growth stocks far in the future toward stocks that are more value stocks. this reflects the fact that real rates for the first time in a long time are likely to go positive in 2023. kriti: he also said he is reaching a tipping point as the city rustles with -- wrestles with rising crime. walk us through what led to this tipping point? >> he has been very vocal about his frustrations with chicago and the rising rate of crime. over the weekend, he was showing
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me a video of some teenagers throwing things at cars. this is right outside of the offices of citadel. this is not necessarily a new phenomenon that he is frustrated with where things have headed and they are continuing to go, but it does seem this is the breaking point for them. real decisions will be made. there was some clarification that a formal decision has not announced, but this is a significant point in history for the firms and for griffin who is a big figure in the city of chicago. jon: obviously, citadel is up firm that has brought a lot of financial muscle to chicago. in terms of where they are looking, there's already operations in new york and growth in florida as well.
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>> correct. there are hundreds of employees in chicago. there are also hundreds in new york. they have a very large presence. specifically, there is an office on park avenue. they have taken some space down in florida. a move is not impossible. firms do this all the time and it would just mean there would be a vacancy left for the city of chicago. the big question here is what does that look like? will the impact be as big as some are estimating? kriti: thank you for bringing us the bloomberg scoop. the s&p 500 is down to 10th of 1%. you're looking at some green on the screen. the nasdaq is up. in this volatility picture, to see that kind of momentum in the
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largest and smallest parts of the market, it's interesting. the toronto exchange is also up. it makes you wonder what kind of market play is driving the markets as opposed to a reaction from yesterday's price action. this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.
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