>> we are thinking the fed is going to be too gentle with the economy. >> what is a slowdown versus a soft or hard landing? >> a lot of room for steam to come out of the economy before you get cutbacks. >> inflation is high, but this is the first time in a long time where there are no restrictions. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene,

jonathan ferro and lisa abramowitz. >> we welcome you want a perfect day in london after the horrific weather in switzerland. we end the headline for this week without question, is finally a bid to equities. lisa: we had a moment with equities going back 10 weeks, we see possibly the first weekly gain and equities, going back eight weeks. tom: we are going to get to this at a moment. we need to talk about what we have seen the davos, what we bring to london in the international since of the city, the international sense of finance. what we heard in davos, we need international solutions to these crises we have. lisa: some cohesion to remedy the issues with high food

prices, high gas and tax prices. this is a global feel we saw in davos, the focus is on europe and what is going on with ukraine. tom: larry will join celebrating howard davies new book out, francine lacqua speaking with sir howard in the last hour. we will touch on that, as well. let's get to it. the important conversations we have, lisa is briefing us. >> this is an important day. we get personal income and personal spending, everybody has been talking about whether the u.s. consumer, how much can that end up driving further growth? we are expecting it to decelerate. i am curious to see where we go there. 10:00 a.m., u.s. university of michigan sentiment survey for the month of may, expected to say about the -- stay the weakest going back to 2011.

how much does this change, we are not expecting much. a precursor for what is to come. we will have a full english breakfast with stephen major, mohamed el-erian, jordan rochester, some of the many guests that will be joining us in london. tom: a lot to talk about. i make a joke about the flight attendant on switch -- swiss air, she said, ask lisa how the seven year option went. lisa: it went well. tom: it went wicked well. so what? lisa: people are starting to buy again. this is one of the key conundrums, you have easing in financial conditions because the fed is saying they are possibly going to pause because of growth concerns, which sets them back to where we were before. how much does this become a problem? it is a self-fulfilling

prophecy. the equity conversation of the day. tom: amazing courage at the end of 2018 in the phase i, phase ii of this bull market, the sustained equity bowl, we get an update from the global market strategist at torah. this is your first time back to qps. does part of the gloom out there now, covid gloom still? >> we have forgotten about covid, to be honest one of the things we -- that worries me, we have completely forgotten about it. there are silver linings per week got a big reopening rebound in some markets and sectors, which we have forgotten about amongst the doom and gloom we have seen. lisa: covid does not exist here. nobody here wears a mask. it is kind of amazing.

are both concerns overdone here? close i think so. i say that humbly and we are in uncharted territory. you look at the pmi's, they are slowing. the q2 in the u.s. is best than the first quarter. the yield curve, nothing to worry about. i do think we are beginning to build a basis out of the vice the fed has had a sin, pushing down evaluations and pushing up a recession concern. i think it puts us in a place where we can stop building a base and look forward to better times. lisa: basically, the more that people take a sigh of relief and go back into risk assets, the more the fed is going to say, we are seeing and easing in financial conditions. we cannot have that because of inflation. at what point does this create

this feeling for risk assets for the foreseeable future? >> i agree, the fed is not going to let markets turn on a dime. the fed is not going to turn to a rescue. i think we can build a base and later in the year, when those inflation concerns, when growth has eased, the fed has less to worry about with inflation, we can begin to see that writing. write up, we want to build that base, it will come earlier -- later in the year. tom: take the optimism, bring it to the revenue line of different sectors of the entire market, against nominal gdp, which is a huge mystery. the combination of gdp and inflation, we do not know that down. put that into the revenue guess when you are two years forward. >> i call it the $25 trillion question. does the u.s. go into a

recession or not, and what happens to corporate? this has been a valuation driven correction, all been about valuations. earnings have been rock solid. if companies can keep delivering here, we will build up and start having a rally. if we go into a recession and companies crack, and they stop investing, we stopped seeing the margins come down, the things that have held solid so far, we are in trouble. i think we are still looking at a scenario where, a modest slow down, companies can look after themselves. you have seen that so far. they haven't gotten the crisis memo. you are seeing the m&a, double-digit growth. i can go on and on. they are telling you a different message from the capital markets. tom: you run into a mere mortal who is scared stiff, they have got cash, they are 25% in cash. they have losses.

what do you tell them to do with that cash? >> dollar cost average it in into value. i think the value has a long way to go. tom: we are allowed to name names. >> all of the above. i think banks will do well once these recession fears go down. lisa: this doesn't exist.

it is not going to happen. right now, we are telling a lie that it doesn't had a president before. what do you say about the pushback against them? >> the consumer is in good shape. corporate's are in very good shape. you are seeing inflation expectations rollover, bond yields rolling over, the has been successful on front loading this tightening of financial expectations, you are seeing it work. it is early day, the fed is not going to take its foot off the accelerator anytime soon. we are beginning to build that base for a rally later in the year. tom: let's go off hindsight you have been the number one person i know of theorized bull market tone since november and december of 2018. how did you know along all christmas of 2018?

>> that was a different world. we had a fed put their, which we do not have now. i am bullets with humility in this environment, we have not seen this double-barreled fed tightening. triple whinnies around the world. it is not just inflation in the u.s., it is lockdowns in china. my narrative, things get less worse with price dollar then, we take pressure off, markets will move higher. it is not, we wake up tomorrow, it will be again. tom: then ladle is giving us the spirit over the last couple of years, through covid, this financial system that will work. we got a massive debate this morning, is the subway stop out here, is it bank or bunk? lisa: bank. >> bank. tom: bank. ok.

close to be a bull, you have to say things get worse. tom: the pendulum of less worse. we are going to frame out in the friday, an important week reading. over the weekend, in the united states, memorial day. which will be a different memorial day with the tragedies we have seen in texas, the nra meeting really front and center within the dialogue this morning. in the united kingdom, i believe we have captured the prime minister on a train. lisa: he was talking about what is going on with ukraine and russia, also talking about the windfall tax, which we heard about yesterday, what that means for the oil companies. a key point for him. tom: it is targeted in transitory, which means, it never will be. they've got a name for the windfall tax. lisa: we will get into trying to explain the name. tom: data check, help your

futures up 11, dow futures up 30, the 10 year yield, i have got to be looking at, .11. that is up down. can you imagine the -10 year yield? lisa: we have gotten more accommodative. at a time when inflation has not materially come down. is that a good thing? tom: we are spreading out on a foot beal -- football field, coming up. mohamed el-erian, the stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: british prime minister boris johnson once more military support for ukraine. he urged that more sophisticated rocket systems be sent so ukrainian forces can hit russian targets further away, negotiating, how can you deal

with a crocodile when it is in the middle of eating your left leg? the latest u.s. challenge to china, the biden administration and taiwan are planning to announce negotiations to increase economic ties, the top would focus on enhancing -- dealing with the trade agreement in washington about its relationship with taiwan. the white house is scrambling to do something about record high gasoline prices in an election year. bloomberg has learned the biden administration has reached out to the oil industry about restarting refinery sprayed the average price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline is $4.60 on wednesday. senate democrats said they were optimistic about a compromise for gun control legislation in the wake of the texas school massacre. democrats appear to be willing to accept incremental steps and will meet with voters that may pressure them to take action. in shanghai, a sign of the extreme steps being taken to keep money, work down -- workers

started to revolt against overseers after being locked down in their factories for almost two months. they say they rushed past guards and isolation barriers, expecting workers to sleep on factory banks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we cannot be ideological about this. we should be pragmatic. it is possible to tax extra nori -- extraordinary profit earnings and investment. previous government, we will introduce a temporary targeted profit levy. tom: secretary ellen on the

floor of congress with democrats and republicans, they almost agree on something. can you see them going, ah. it is extraordinary how they do that. we are having a lot of fun, the biggest fun we are having. the levy. a temporary targeted energy profit levy. queen victoria street today, waiting for sir howard davies to come. i told him i wouldn't go into the building until he showed up with sterling under 120. the elevators here, the building, he was trying to explain to me temporary target is great, but the question is the investment side of this windfall. lisa: what is going to be ok for them to deal with? not only that, what is normalized profits? that is when they are going to roll it off. is that an excuse to keep going? tom: normalized profits.

for our american audience, the basic idea is, you move from london, north, north, north, you go where your ancestors were bakers. the prime minister has family from darlington, this side of scott lind -- scotland. lisa: doing great. tom: i am trying. kitty johnson on the train with him, you have got to believe with the news flow we look at, you go, really? this is the guy that needed a quiet train ride? lisa: he did. he didn't get one. he was trying to give a feeling of confidence amid a difficult leadership right now. tom: a challenge to say the least with kitty on the train, the prime minister of the united kingdom. >> it is important we do not get lulled because of the incredible errors of the ukrainians in pushing the russians back from

the gates of kyiv. because of their amazing valor of president zelenskyy, we should not believe this problem has gone away. on the contrary, i am afraid that putin, at great cost to himself and his russian military, is continuing to chew through ground in donbass. he is continuing to make gradual, slow, palpable progress. in that thought, it is vital that we continue to support the ukrainians militarily. indeed, what they need now is the type of rocketry, a rocket system, mli's, where they are able to defend themselves against these very brutal russian artillery. that is where the world needs to go now. >> final question. this is about president zelenskyy. you have been -- stood shoulder to shoulder with him.

certain calls from europe, from germany, would settle with putin, trying to -- >> i would say to any such proponent of a deal with putin, how can you deal? how can you deal with a crocodile when it is in the middle of eating your left leg? what is the negotiation? that is what putin is doing. he will try to freeze the conflict. he will try to call for a cease-fire well he remains in possession of substantial parts of ukraine. i make that point to all my friends and colleagues in the g7 and nato. by the way, everybody gets that. once you go through the logic, you can see it is very difficult to be a negotiated solution paired we desperately need it to end. the world needs it to end. the one-way way it can end is for putin to accept, let him

say, the denazification of ukraine has taken place. he is able to withdraw dignity and honor. that would be -- that is what needs to happen. i am not saying there were any nazis in ukraine, but one of the interesting things about the situation is the strong support that putin commands in russia for anything he says or does. i think he has the political marginal maneuver to make it -- an end to this. tom: the prime minister of the united kingdom in conversation with our kitty donaldson. on the railway above the darlington, as an american, you wonder the support that these politicians all have in the west if this war drags on. months, or even years. lisa: that is the reason why the

temporary windfall taxes important, it caters to that popular feeling. if prices go up, if it is connected to what they are seeing in the war in ukraine, how much does that have to be offset in other ways? that is what they are trying to do with this $6 million income tax. tom: we didn't talk that much about the war, which is clearly front and center in the world economic forum. my conversation with sir lawrence freedman, who was shocking in 2018, who predicted so much of what we see now. he, like admiral servetus in america, is focused on the black sea, -- writing this morning about how odessa is the pivot point for trying to get food out to some of these nations. lisa: it is not just western nations people are saying davos is the center of police it is -- elitism. frankly, a lot of the developing

world relies on ukrainian wheat. ukrainian rice, not rice is much as ukrainian wheat and ukrainian corn. how much do they try to -- i said, not rice. tom: i asked the finance minister from malaysia, how is that wheat crop going? he crossed his eyes, such an ugly american. lisa: talk about being an ugly american. tom: speaking of breakfast, lisa is all yogurt and berries. she breaks the rules paired we are here for one day, we hope to be back soon with jon ferro. we had to test out the pharaoh breakfast -- ferro breakfast. do they eat this every day? lisa: my observation, the exile a different color. the toast comes on shelves.

a little rack. tom: on radio, this is a full english breakfast, 42 pounds or whatever. igo counterclockwise, we do not have the hour. the most important thing, everything has to be mushy go she. the mushrooms are moshe go she, the tomatoes are mushy gushy. lisa: a piece of toast on a shelf. really delicious. tom: the typical surveillance breakfast is tang and a pop tart. some of our contestants stay at the med hotel, in london. markets, a good week for equities. the vix, under 28, 27.17. oil, brent moving up 117. stay with us, stephen major next

on yields. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance" from queen victoria street in london.

help me with the data check. futures up 12. dow futures up 35. vix, the 30 level drifting away. lisa: it will be the first weekly gain if it holds going back eight weeks. the stabilit in yields is not a coincidence. lower than where it has been. 2.73%. this underpins a lot of the quiescence we have seen this week. tom: part of that is the real yield, the nominal yield. you have a residual. all of a sudden, maybe not today as we go to the real yield this afternoon, the 10-year real yield .10%. lisa: five-year real yields are negative and only heading were negative. at what point do we see accommodation reconfirmed in markets that the fed would like

to see. tom: we welcome all of you on radio and television worldwide as we shake at our time for one day in london. i think it is the julie. -- jubilee. lisa: are we going to have another breakfast like that? tom: one of our most important guests because he is theoretical and foundational he based. steven major joins us. i got to cut to the chase. steven: so far so good. i cannot think for what they speak of me but i'm quite happy. tom: restricted in hong kong. we get all the news and wonderful briefs. stephen engle reporting. do you feel restricted day-to-day in the new hong kong? steven: it is possible to move around quite freely. you have to wear a mask that we can do what we need to do.

i think some of the view from outside may not be consistent with what we see inside hong kong. tom: for those that are learning fixed income, many guests look at the inflation adjustment yield. should i be looking at the real yield or study the nominal yield? steven: both. the one piece missing is the forward real yield. i heard you talking about it now. the five-year forward real yield. let's take the one-you're right. it has moved from -150 to +100 and the last six months. you can take that from tips. forward will estimate where we are going to be in five years time. there's been a big tightening that you cannot see on the spot. the spot moves by less than that. from the fed's point of view, they look at the forward

breakevens, the forward real, it's a bit of a worry. strangely enough the market has tightened a lot already. they have only done one small 25 basis point rate hike and a 50. that's all they've done. they are nowhere near neutral on that basis. the forward is already saying they have tightened. lisa: are you saying the fed will not be concerned by a loosening and financial conditions this week? it'll just be a positive and the incredible tightening they were getting concerned about? steven: i'm a bit concerned. they are forecasting lower yields by year-end. i'm a bit worried it's happening too soon. to answer your question, that's consistent with the financial conditions not tightening further. they have already tightened quite a lot. the fed is not well served by the market softening up the

financial conditions. they want you all to think they are hawkish and will hike like crazy so you will behave and the consumer will calm down and inflation will fall back to target. the trouble is we want everything now. lisa: if you go now, it changes behavior later in the year. if we see a return to frothy your conditions, buying the dip mentality, where would you take the 10-year projection for the end of the year? it is currently two .5%. steven: i -- 2.5%. steven: it's important to understand if they hike with their eyes closed and they carry on doing it in the next year, the 10-year treasury should be 4%. if they take into account we could have a recession by 2024, they will be back at zero within the next year or so.

the yield should be below 1%. the 2.5% since between those two yields. the human brain is not clever enough to cope with that unfortunately. we want it in simple terms, a simple base case, a path. lisa: what do you do that? steven: that is how markets work. markets are trying to incorporate available information. they will jump from being hawkish to dovish and there is a transition that is gradual. the growth risks are growing. the inflation risk are maybe peaking. stom: the last time we had a bond bear market is bad, blessed ham was looking at relegation -- west ham was looking at relegation. have you seen a bond bear market

priced down like we see right now? steven: this year's decline on prices, the total return, the losses have been the biggest on record for 40 years. we have had two consecutive years like this. the first time since 1994 when both bonds and stocks have gone down. it's important. it is not just the bond bear market. we are talking about the stock bear market and rolling -- and questioning the role of 60-40. we study things like these drawdowns and the move in the forwards, i think bonds are offering more value to diversified in an equity bond portfolio than before. tom: speak to people who could care less about the forward market, page 14 of your 28 page outlook. there is some form of fixed income.

they are down three years coupon and saying how do i regroup. what is the thought process to try to catch up? steven: you will not get it back this year. that is how you have to think in bonds. bonds are not about all the rock 'n' roll you get inequities and tech stocks and big -- they are not the same. bonds are there to be ballast in the portfolio. that is something you have to accept in this down year. the winter now with fresh cash, -- you enter now with fresh cash, you get 3% on the longer end. lisa: how many buyers were from japan and china? on a currency hedged to basis you can get less in the united states right now than in japan. steven: they will not be coming

from japan because the japanese curve is steep. it means there market works better. it means that hedge does not work. that is true. money might be coming from other parts of the world. you mentioned china. china seems to be slowing down. is there a capital flow from that part of the world into the u.s.? something seems to be happening. if china is slowing down, that's important to the fed as well. tom: we don't care what you think about fixed income. excuse me. i don't give a damn. lisa: we have one of the preeminent mines in fixed income. tom: do people really eat this in england? steven: if you want to live a long time. tom: what was the tradition? steven: we did not eat that

stuff. my father may have but is not good for you. you need to stick to they healthy -- tom: churchill? it's like a movie out of 1946 with winston with a cigar in his mouth. steven: i like your comment about the eggs. they are yellow because they are proper eggs. lisa: they are orange. steven: they are organic. tom: proper eggs. i miss jon so much. lisa: he abandoned us. tom: the vitality of the food here, and europe in general, the best was in istanbul in my travels. steven major, thank you so much. i'm not having a full english tomorrow. we will do a full english data

check. we can do that. the headline number for me with richard mailer coming up his brent crude. $116.85. lisa: what does this mean for refined products? i'm curious how the windfall tax plays into this, whether it is the beginning of a host of taxes around the world. exactly. what is going to be the consequence? do you see more investment in oil and gas production, or loopholes any retracement -- and a retracement because they raise -- because there is a resentment? tom: i tried to pay in crypto. what a grim week for crypto. i have less than scott minerd. he says up to $400,000.

then $8,000 on crypto. lisa: it has not been the safe asset a lot of people expected. i think you should start the triple leveraged all crypto fund. tom: we tried that. coming up, alina polyakova, president of the center for european policy on ukraine. from a beautiful london, stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, boris johnson pulled no punches when bloomberg asked about the prospect of negotiating with vladimir putin. "how can you deal with a crocodile when it's eating your left leg?" he says the russian president is not to be trusted. russian oil is on tankers and heading to india and china. asia overtook europe has the

largest buyer last month as the nations have restricted russian oil and gas imports. chinese industrial firms declined last month. they felt a .5% in -- 8.5% in april. factory, production, logistics. a heartening development for the federal reserve but not for american workers. companies are becoming more cautious after handing out hefty salary increases over the last year. economists expect annual wage growth had 5.2%, down from 5.5% in april. wage growth is a big source of inflation. texas governor greg abbott is dropping plans to meet with the nra meeting in houston days after the school massacre. according to the dallas morning news, abbott will be in uvalde

and will send it takes message to the nra instead. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ready could go to -- ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ a cio in 2022. so what's on the agenda? morning security briefing—make that two. share that link. send that contract. see what's trending. check the traffic on your network, in real time, with the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. lunch? -sure. you've got time. onboard 37 new people, with 74 new devices. does anybody have any questions? and just as many questions.

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need to care about the plaza accord. he pushes against the zeitgeist and says forget about the early 1980's. it is not a proper analog. he says no. we welcome you to london on our way back to switzerland. we will be in new york on monday. we are not working monday. lisa: i have been trying to tell you that. you say you will get into the office anyway. tom: we will be looking for that on monday. tuesday we start out. i believe there has been a ferro siding. -- siting. alina polyakova joins us now, president of the center for european policy analysis. you and i have the honor of speaking after a treatment by sir lawrence friedman of king's college on war and the

uniqueness of ukraine. friedman's focus on the black sea. are you? alina: absolutely. for years we have raised the alarm bells about how critical the black sea is for national security. the russian blockade of the black sea is raising food prices across the world. it is contributing to huge food insecurity. that is why it should have been an area of focus for a long time. tom: does the russian navy have enough control to control the black sea, to control food? if they do, how does nato and turkey respond? alina: they have enough control to block ukraine from sending any grain, corn, exports of any kind. they are holding ukraine hostage and holding the world's food supply hostage. the russians said, look, if you

remove sanctions, we might let some ships go through. that is a terrorist tactic. in the black sea turkey is the other main actor, a nato member state. unfortunately without a direct confrontation with the russian navy it is hard to see how we get the blockade off. russia does have essentially dominance over the black sea to control the passage of ships, to control basically global trade. lisa: what is the redline here? how does this look by year-end if there is a problem with the lack of food in certain places? alina: i think at some point nato is going to have to act. ukraine has a low capacity navy. low capacity in the air as well. we have numbness. at the end of the day we have the right to enforce freedom of navigation. the monroe convention, which

covers international navy movements in the black sea does specify there should be freedom of navigation in international waters. russia is violating those rules right now but threats are not going to work. we need to see some real action. we need to see some ships, nato ships, u.k. ships going through those waters and say we are going to enforce navigation because that is the law. if you want to have a confrontation over that, we will have to talk about it. right now it does not seem to have an end in sight. lisa: this is tiptoeing into a hot war between western nations and russia. at what point do we cross that line if there are shifts from nato sent to the black sea -- ships from nato sent to the black sea? alina: this is the fog of war we are in. there is a risk of confrontation in the black sea. the battle over small,

uninhabited snake island has become a critical issue for their broader battling ukraine. -- battle in ukraine. russia has the advantage after controlling crimea for eight years. crimea's strategic position is allowed it project power across the waterway. we have to think about what this means, because we are not just talking about ukraine or the black sea. we are talking about global food supply and food chains that will be affecting europe, united states, all of us. we have to start thinking about what is the balance to be struck. my preference is the russians come to the table and we can engage in diplomacy over this issue. they have shown very little interest in that. tom: i asked sir lawrence friedman a question. did so much thinking about this across the ark of post-world war ii europe.

i asked, how do war's end? with all your knowledge of how wars end, what do you guess to be the outcome of this war in ukraine? alina: wars in europe and the 20th century have ended in a negotiated settlement after at the feet, a big military defeat. world war i, world war ii. it is hard to say it only ends in negotiated agreement. that happens after capitulation. one side will have to lose. the ukrainians say they will fight to the last man standing. the russians are making progress but this looks like it will be a very long grind that could last many years without either side admitting or seeing themselves as the victor or loser. it is still in our interest to ensure the russians lose.

that is the only way they will come to the negotiating table. that is what european history has shown us over and over again. lisa: quickly here, what role does oil play? the idea of europe limiting their imports of gas from russia going to have on the duration of the conflict? alina: all these kinds of sanctions, particularly on oil. gas is achilles' heel of the russian war machine. the russian government maintaining its war effort through energy payments is receiving. it's about to default in the next several months on those debt payments because of the u.s. actions on sanctions. on oil, this is going to be a hit if europe moves forward with this. it is not going to buckle the russian economy. at the end of the day what will happen is pressures will go up

and in the grand scheme of things that will benefit russia as one of the largest oil energy exporters in the world. it's a mixed bag has to whether the oil embargo will affect russia in the short term. in the long-term it may benefit it slightly from rising prices on oil. tom: alina polyakova, thank you so much. a wonderful briefing on a friday. alina polyakova from the center for european policy analysis. i want to hear the dynamic of the week. dow futures of 56. vix, big deal. we go the other way. 20 92 at 26 v -- 29 to 26 vix today would be a good day day in the week. euro, 106.99. from london, this is bloomberg.

♪

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>> clear thinking the fed will be too gentle with the economy. >> basically a soft landing. >> there's a lot of room fo