>> we think just we need to get at least or percent and it's difficult to do that with precipitating a recession. i think inflation has become give the fed the ability to not propel the u.s. into a recession. >> as far as energy, food,

inflation effects all that stuff >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on the good morning am a this is berg surveillance on tv and -- this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. there is a storm coming. tom: jamie dimon lightened it up and some of that was in our interview in london. jp morgan does a lot of fancy work, a lot of math and a lot of algebra and they are looking for higher oil prices. jonathan: their chief equity strategists is still very polish -- bullish. that's a heavy lift on the back half of 2022. tom: it's wonderful to see that division at any major bank in its always part of the debate and its healthy.

it's been said the recession going was wrong. they are adamant off of that economic data, the ism data. it's not that bad stuff jonathan: job openings came in pretty high let's talk about crude oil, down more than 6%. we might get more output from riyadh and the president might make a trip to saudi arabia shortly. lisa: he will be going on a nato tour later this month and it might include a stop in saudi arabia to increase production. they are talking about how saudi arabia may consider increasing production in response to a decline in out from russia. how much does this matter? i think this is one of the key issues. how do you translate that into lower prices at the pump ahead

of the return? jonathan: how do you reconcile your foreign policy goals with your domestic troubles? the foreign policy objective, they never talked about it openly but it's almost two isolated around prince saudi. they talked about in the early days of this administration and secretary lincoln would be speaking to his counterpart. fast forward into 2022 and crude is high and gas rises are up so a bit of a change. lisa: have we gone from the buying pan into the fire? trying to buddy up with another regime that has washable tactics and human rights violations. there is an issue of what you do in the near term to stave off pain and that seems to be the calculus in washington, d.c. and also in berlin. jonathan: we've got a lot to get

this morning. let's start with the price action. where is the nasdaq? that was just for you. wti is over $112. lisa: 8:30 a.m., we get more of a read on the route market. opec-plus is whining to me via videoconference. will it last more than 30 minutes and how does it lead into the price of gas? the average price in the united states has climbed to new record highs day after day, near -- nearly $4.70 so how quickly can reduction route prices translate to reduction in the cost of refined goods and getting that crew translated into just

getting that crude translated into gas. the job openings, i more interested in the follow on to the job openings data we got yesterday. it came in a little bit nearly two job openings for each unemployed american. we are not seeing the volume of people getting hired increase all that much. hard to translate this data but it indicates this is an incredibly tight labor market and it's not loosening materially. the president met with his advisers ahead of that nato meeting. i want to hear what they say about saudi arabia because that will be the most interesting part of this trip considering the fact that it's an about-face from washington, d.c. in their attitude toward riyadh. jonathan: i will give you 30 seconds.

tom: it's not just the cambridge way step explain this to our audience. jonathan: i'm not playing rural correspondent for the next few days. you explain. you know what tom said? that's where they get the beach volleyball? tom: for those of you on radio, there is all that pomp and circumstance for the queen's jubilee. jonathan: is that the extent of your insights? tom: let me have a tang. jonathan: i'm sure you had more than one tang this morning. let's get to the head of technical and macro strategy.

a german 10-year is making a new high for the year. for the people making the conclusion that we've seen the height of inflation and a pecan yields, can we see that when the -- when we see this develop in europe now? >> when we travel around and talk with clients, the most consensus view on the street is that we've reached the moment of peak inflation or peak yields. the only problem with that is the market is not just the german 10 year yield, look at the aussie and u.k. and french and italian. across the board, the global bond market has not bought into this idea of peak inflation or peak yields. peak inflation is amount problem. that will sort itself over time but the reaction of the market is what we care about, the reaction is the story. tom: what is the reaction to the

opening of china? >> i think you will get another bid in the commodity complex. i'm not sure that's great for europe. it's a catch-22. we want inflation to come down but we have china with a pmi reading in china which will indicate more easing. we have seen the chinese yuan start to weaken so i wonder if it reignite some of the inflation fears. you have cpi running in the low 80's and i can't think of anyone thinks it's going to be higher a year from now. everyone thinks it will be lower. i don't think the bond market is find that story. lisa: what is that mean in terms of the aleutian or errors side? -- in terms of the bullish or bearish side. >> we've seen the growth part of the market underperformed going

into this draw down. i suspect what it means is it will continue to underperform on the others. there are rallies and growth starts -- and tech. they get smaller and that part of the market. the market has said this is not your leadership anymore and that's the message we want to reach. jonathan: we all hear the same voices in energy. we have had a massive move this year and a big move last year, how are we still talking about a segment that has ripple lord over the last two years -- that has rip-roared over the last new year's? >> energy is overbought but not overgrown. 40% above the 200 day moving averages the most extreme reading we have seen 40 years and it could consolidate or

correct from that stuff it's 5% of the s&p 500 so to say it's over what is a bridge too far. we think about the culture of the market over the last decade with the corporation of esg, we have pushed investors away from energy. i don't know how it can be over own. we look at the largest esg fund in the world and its correlation with s&p 500 is .99 stuck when you think about index returns, that's for something like energy is 5% of the s&p, i still make it's under own. jonathan: great to hear from you. tom: i think it will be a play and no one's talking about rotation stuff as you mentioned with jp morgan, this is the

raging reset in the midyear. i'm suggesting midyear starting 30 days in advance, june 1 and here we are. jonathan: lisa: lisa: how much is this becoming the base case as the economy is not forcing the fed to be more aggressive? what happened off the back of that data yesterday?

tom: 306 on the 30 year bond. 2.92%. 500 people used to park their cars on the yield. it was a great perkins in 1997 so we need great perks on bloomberg surveillance. i will wave us out. this is emotional. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world. the price of oil fell after a report that saudi arabia will pump more crude step they have indicated to western allies that they should russian output declines financially. opec coalition is meeting today day. president bynum is likely to visit saudi arabia this month as

soaring gasoline rises are affecting him politically. he would meet with the countries affected ruler. -- effective ruler. president biden has blamed him for the murder of the washington post journalist. facebook is enjoying multibillion-dollar advertising. the chief operating officer is stepping down from advertising. she was supposed to rein in large-scale misinformation. russia says it's ready to settle claims on bonds after missing a $1.9 million interest name and -- $1.9 million interest payment. a failure to pay you point appeared on credit default

swaps. in tulsa, oklahoma, a gunman killed four people at a medical old income of the latest in a series of mass shootings in the u.s. the gunman apparently killed himself but it's unclear what led to the attack and police said they were on the scene three minutes after getting the report. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> gets hurricane. it's kind of sunny and things are doing fine and everyone thinks we can handle this and that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way, we just don't know if it's superstorm sandy. jonathan: jamie dimon making some headlines. what did you make of that yesterday? tom: magnitude is the issue and economics is a great divide when they start talking magnitude stop he gives you the magnitude of the hurt and but one of the issues for chairman powell is you don't have a hurricane and what you get is a longer-term inflation stop if you don't get the cathartic recession, we get inflation which crushes the middle class. jonathan: why don't we say there are storm clouds brewing? tom: i give great credit to lisa

for interviewing brian moynihan to talk about the banking business. the ceos want to go macro. jonathan: i think that was a subtle dig. jamie dimon concluded about what he's doing at the bank and the challenges they face and maybe lining up risk with the balance sheet. lisa: let's be honest, jamie dimon usually comes up as a statesman or trying to be a figurehead rather than a leader of a bank. it doesn't indicate where his role should evolve. people would like to see some predecessors,. tom: lisa talks about a

figurehead so let's go to the jubilee in london. in the front row, separate from the royals is the prime minister. is he on the edge of teresa mae and threatens? jonathan: you will be the most to make me the royal correspondent. tom: is his job really threatens? jonathan: it's up to him whether he wants to resign or not. some people would like to see him step down and others still support him. lisa: tom is trying to get you to cover the jubilee? jonathan: where do you want to take this? tom: the president is riveted to the jubilee as well but there is no jubilee at the white house. what we need to talk about thursday? does he need to shakeup the white house on the sunday talk

shows? >> there has been murmurs about when there might be a white house staff shakeup for a while now step you see the white house is responding frantically to a series of crises. the pressure he has faced lack of answers from the white house on why, the president didn't know more when the fda should have told more about the baby formula shortage and all of that seems to lead to those questions. i'm not entirely sure at what point the pressure builds enough so that somebody's got to go. at this point in the presidency, it's been dominated by responses rather than fulfilling his vision and responding to crises. he has not expressed frustration with anybody out right in

particular. lisa: how unusual is the feeling that this president, this administration is constantly behind the eight ball whether it's infant formula or gas prices or inflation and whether it's how things are developing on the labor front? how much do you get the sense that this -- that this is a uniquely behind white house? >> i think it's not that unusual for the news cycle surrounding the president to be responding to crises. that's especially in the environment in washington right now. even a fairly minor crisis could be right -- jacked up into something bigger into the midterms. the set of circumstances right now are pretty extreme. obviously, there's not a lot of history to go by with how you respond to the opening up during

a pandemic step it's a difficult set of certain dances it's not unheard of for the presidential news cycle in recent history to be dominated by pretty negative news and struggling to respond to crises. lisa: there is the issue of whether the president will head to saudi arabia to have communication and a better relationship to induce more oil -- more oil production from the region. how is that laying in washington? >> i'm not sure how much pushback there is going to be from democrats if there is an easing of the relations been been just between the president and saudi arabia. there is some leftover angst over the killing of jamal khashoggi in a number of people who supported the president's initial view that he would only directly communicate with the

crown prince. it's not an issue that lawmakers are ringing up over and over and. it's a bit sad to say but for years having passed, it's not something where the political pressure has continued so much that you expect a massive amount of pushback toward that. there may be skepticism but we are not your bunch of preemptive pushback from allies of the president right now. jonathan: great to catch up step crude is lower this morning by 2.5%. tom: brent crude is 100 $13 and we will see where that goes. we have not talked enough about the resilient dollars so let's bring it to fx. it's been eight the rater but i'm watching deepest market to see some of the tone as we look at the jobs report. jonathan: looking ahead to next

week, looking at yields in germany, new highs for the year this morning? lisa: we take a look at what people are getting out of the are seeing the likelihood of if the basis point rate hike as soon as september in europe step this is an unheard-of reality. even members of the ecb are considering this on the heels of what we saw from canada yesterday stop how can you not like the canadians? they set the tone. tom: they need defense and the power play which is just not there. jonathan: what are you talking about? tom: here we go. the balcony seats are coming up here. the duchess of cambridge is sort of this kind of thing. how my doing?

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day

has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo.

jonathan: no real drama this morning with you choose just about positive on the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. jp morgan things we can recover the year to date losses on the

s&p 500 which is 17% so you can expect quite a rally if you believe that by the end of the year. one ingredient for that rally's stimulus out of china. tom: we mentioned that earlier, i 100% agree. i think that is the plan on china reopening. it's not that gloomy out there with the dow down 10%. look at the damage and the nasdaq. jonathan: a big move on the nasdaq last week. they think that's is -- that's a template for the rest of the year step i've got a lot of messages yesterday. tom: it's healthy.

i got questions about the jubilee. jonathan: we will talk about the bond market in germany with yields making new highs for the year. 10 years back to $2.90 and all of a sudden we are talking about 3% again. a lot of it is coming back off of the idea that this federal reserve has more work to do. tom: with the jubilee, where having a royal take this morning. jonathan: enjoy yourself, i will get to crude oil. the financial time for 40 that saudi arabia could getting -- could be getting ready to pump more crude oil. maybe this president is thinking

about a visit to riyadh later this month. it's perhaps a loosening of the commodity market. tom: one analyst is looking for a great bargain between mr. biden and the royal family in saudi arabia step senior economist at wells fargo. let me talk about fully employed america. which america is fully employed? >> when you look at what part of america's fully employed, the job demand we are seeing is brought based. we see it across various sectors whether is the professional services and in terms of some of the lower paying service sectors where we have seen the hours got an overall, we look at the unemployment rate which is

broader and includes those part-time time for economic reasons. that is near record lows as well so by and large, i think you are seeing a tight labor market right now. tom: i'm getting told by people that the chairman of the reserve once the unemployment rate to go up. who in america should lose their job so the unemployment rate goes up? >> that's why it's politically sensitive and wife fed officials will never out and say it. they do need the labor market to cool and that will probably cool the unemployment rate and cool some of the inflation pressures. we will get an update on labor service trends. it will eat -- either bestie compressions and margins and the net inflation is affected by the labor market stuff they can

impact the labor portion of inflation. lisa: which aspect of the labor report will be most important tomorrow? >> i think a lot of it will be focused on participation. the headline matters in terms of how many jobs we are adding in with the cases relative to areas like but so much of the job outlook and how tight this labor market is and how much tighter it could get comes down to what we see on the supply front stop we saw a step back and participation last month. we expect participation to trend higher as some groups have been holding back workers. as things continue to ease and some of the financials grow, i think we feel the prime participation rate has recovered

white a bit but there is question how much further that could go and how much slack there is left on the fed to alleviate some of the current tightness. lisa: last, people were talking -- about a potential cause in fed right since it -- but -- fed rates in september. inflation is continuing to be sustained but increasing particularly in the service sector. how do you view the fed action in response to this on the likelihood of a fed pause later this year? >> i think the likelihood of the bed pause is very low. look at what we are seeing out of the inflation in the labor market stuff those are still red hot and i think we've seen officials agree on the fact that they won't be able to ease off the brakes until they seek inflation reduce in a definitive manner and i don't think we will see that until late this year.

i think we will see headline cpa's talk around 8% through october which means the fed won't do that till november. talk of the fed pausing i think is premature. jonathan: the idea of seeing inflation come down in a definitive manner, what is the number behind that? do we understand the threshold? >> they haven't told us and it's going to be driven in part by composition but it will matter what's happening with the core. if it's elevated to the point of energy and food, then i think if they are seeing the court decelerate, they might feel better about a slow down. i don't think it's any one particular number they have to see. i think it's going more on a trend and near the 8% rate we are stuck at. jonathan: this is pretty vague in the calls about fed pause,

what is behind them? i think it was raphael bostic last week that made the point that maybe they will have a pause. he had limited interest in that. tom: it's all data dependent. you do the calendar on inflation were words and that's the major thing here stop the jobs report as part of the dual mandate of the fed and they are massively data dependent. we were talking about jackson hole yesterday thinking that somewhere we need to be so could that be a big moment for this fed? >> jackson hole always has a lot of attention given how quickly things are moving with the market and the economy and fed policy. he could be a forum for another big indication of where the fed goes.

when we look at where we will be in august, i we will still be dealing with what we have today step we are seeing an elegant a degree oven nation and an overly tight labor markets are not sure how much of it shift in fed tone there will be. a lot could change in there is likely to be a lot of focus in at least some guidance on where the fed could go but i don't think the circumstances will be all that different step jonathan: thank you. lisa: a lot of people agree with her but you are not necessarily seeing this in the market and there is a pause that people have asked arians. how much can we get to the aggression where the fed is saying they will have this and what does the data confirm? jonathan: the former new york

president said i would not put too much stock on it. he said the fed will have to push beyond the federal funds rate. tom: some serious clout there. one of the big differences with bill dudley is he has gone through the pressure of forecasting. there is a certain humility to what he does rather than tossing out media friendly statements. we go to jackson hole and we are working on it now and we will see what happens. you are going for tammy lama boots but you should go for the leviathan -- tony lama. jonathan: do you want to explain

why i need these shoes? lisa: he's criticizing your wardrobe. tom: you can do a full english in london stuck jonathan: ok, i'm never going to forget lisa saying mush. do you want to take it back on this jubilee celebration? lisa: i don't want to take that back, it was really good. people talk about avocado toast in the united states. tom: acv milan taken out by redbird and this company doesn't by a majority, they are good at going in and buying a hunk. they've got the fed weight linkages well but i wonder if this is the future of's warts.

jonathan: a shout out to elliott management, would thought that there hedge fund would end up owning a football club and it helped turn the team. here is a tweet for you. we do it just for you. a little more for you in the next segment. and the segment after that and the one after that. where is the love? tom: you have to do is show and in any given show, 42% of the people have to hate you. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, the price of oil is falling today following every or that saudi arabia has indicated they will pump more crude oil should russian output decline step is

due to an increase in sanctions and president biden is likely to visit saudi arabia this month. sarin gas prices are hurting the president politically. china is facing growing pressure to help cash-strapped property owners. they have not been living to -- lead lending to the industry. in virginia, a jury sided with actor johnny depp in his lawsuit against his ex-wife. they afforded him $10 million amid allegations about him abusing her. the jury found that amber heard was de famed by one of johnny depp's lawyer and awarded her $2 million. gemini trust is cutting 10% of its staff .global news, 24 hours

blame the job cuts and what they call crypto. it raised $400 million in value the company is 7.1 global news, billion dollars. 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as we get tangible evidence that inflation is retreating, we can look at reducing in the future years, maybe late 2023 or 2024. jonathan: the st. louis fed president, the idea that we could reducing the lessee rate in 2023, that's next year. tom: deutsche bank comes out with a recession call and i will give them some slack on that.

we've got the fed president doing the parlor game out a year and a half. at least i can say that's original. jonathan: it's original to talk about bringing down inflation. and perhaps do that by the end of this year and talk about interest rates next year. should that be part of the conversation? tom: we had to move beyond smoke rings and the narrow munication strategy of alan greenspan step to me, it's out of control. let's go to london and professor norman will join us but on radio, you need some pageantry stop they are trooping back and forth on the beach volleyball court of 2012. 240 horses are involved. they absolutely nailed that shot

step 14 of the lads are from coventry, growing up with jonathan ferro. julie norman joins us now and we will do an explanation step how does a jubilee fit into the total political chaos i read every day of the united kingdom? >> i would say there is a sense of respite this weekend from the political talk that's been plaguing the major parties. we have heard a lot about u.s. inflation but u.k. inflation is up about 9% but is not coupled by growth. people around london have been feeling the political strife and its two years of lockdown and covid so i think this weekend, people are ready to celebrate. tom: let me segue to what you

just said which is the city focus of our modern times. everything is about london prosperity and everyone else is flat on their back and everything is about paris prosperity and everyone is flat on their back stop that's modern political economics, the strength of the city, isn't it? >> it is to a certain extent and i have seen that in the u.k. step six out of the eight areas have negative growth. in most of the country, reality is different than in the capital. i think that is underappreciated by a lot of little parties as well as us in academia. we see it in the u.s. and here and many other parts of the world. jonathan: what are the political lessons in the u.k. as far as policy? the lines have blurred between left and right step the

opposition is accusing the conservatives of borrowing their own policies, what do you make of that? >> is interesting because there is a bit more cost spillover than even in the u.s.. many americans would look more progressive at times. it's a situation where i think you have a weak opposition and labor has not been able to reorient themselves around any kind of strong leadership. it's created a system where to relatively moderate parties are in power and not a lot of progress. there is more calls for boris johnson to step aside from his own party more than anywhere else. in the united states, there's more of the two-party back and forth but not as much within. lisa: how much has the u.k. set

the tone so when will we see something similar in the u.s.? >> there has been efforts that have been put in place in the u.k. even under the conservative government since the start of covid that we would not have seen this decoupling in the united states because of the expectations here. even if the policies here were, i think it would be risky and create pressure. tom: now jonathan ferro, with great respect, should the queen pay a windfall tax? jonathan: what are you suggesting that should look like? tom: i think it's been underplayed for decades and decades, the accumulation of wealth over the years, not overtly but just the fact that they own half of the ground. what portion of heathrow do they own? should they be paying a windfall

tax in trying times for the united kingdom? please. >> i'm not sure about that one. i think the queen will enjoy her weekend. in terms of the tax system, there are thanks they can push here and that people in the u.k. expect and it's something that in the u.s. would probably not fly at the same level. jonathan: very diplomatic, thank you. i went through the polls this morning, should we continue to have a monarchy and 61% said yes but if you go by age group, 65 plus, 81%. if you go to 18-24 years old, it's as low as 31% and that's with the future looks like. tom: i am fascinated by it but part of the matter is, we are

the colonies. lisa: yes, correct. where am i supposed to go with that? i don't know anything about the jubilee. tom: can we get more beef eaters in the tang? lisa: i did not put it in my brief. i thought about it. jonathan: it's a distraction in futures look like this on the s&p 500. tom: jonathan: crude is up into reports out today and one suggesting that the president could visit riyadh later this month step it suggests we could

get higher oil output out of saudi arabia. that's playing on the crude market this morning. tom: in 17 minutes, christian malik will join us to frame out how commodities and hydrocarbons play into the stress. jonathan: you have to ask him if the hurricane is coming step tom: yes, i would also want to know if he will celebrate the jubilee. jonathan: futures up 6/10 of 1%. a nice morning again. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the fed is very optimistic they will see lower levels of inflation, but they will not see 2% anytime soon. >> i think we need to at least get to 4%, and that is the problem. it is difficult to do that without precipitating a recession. >> i do think inflation has peaked.