>> i think the fed is very optimistic they will see lower levels of inflation, but they will not see 2% anytime soon. >> i think we need to at least get to 4%, and that is the problem. it is difficult to do that without precipitating a recession. >> i do think inflation has peaked.

that will give the fed the ability to not tighten into a recession. >> inflation has not peaked, even the core level. inflation has not peaked. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 0.5% on the s&p. more data still to come stateside, and the data so far, so good. tom: it is going to be interesting on claims and on jobs data tomorrow, and maybe you get a reaffirmation of recession. maybe not. the gloom crew is flat out wrong. the fed is fighting the last war. jonathan: you saw the reaction in the market. yields higher, treasuries lower. the conclusion, the fed has more work to do. tom: dollar resilient as well.

have we broken through? no. is there any drama and the data check this morning? no. but we have a real reversal in the gloom. jonathan: in wti and brent, we came so close to one junta $20 in wti -- to $120 on wti. lisa: a decline in output from russia. how do you gauge the time -- gauge the decline given the fact that a lot of their oil is floating on ships to china right now? at what point is this willingness a tit-for-tat with the u.s. government? how much does this depend on president biden heading to riyadh to make peace with the leader of saudi arabia? jonathan: how much do some of these oil calls depend on china by more crude from russia? jp morgan came out with this line. "china needs to increase purchases of russian crude by

one million barrels a day. if that does not happen, brent crude could average $122 in the second quarter, peaking at $136 in june." that is painful. lisa: we talk about these corporate executives coming up with this question of we have no idea what is going on. how much availability -- how much visibility do we have with tankers trying to move under the radar? just to give you a sense of the uncertainty in the direction of oil price. jonathan: jamie dimon yesterday making this point. i think it is where the emphasis lies. what do you do if you think storm clouds are on the horizon? you brace. that was his point. tom: the corporations are going to adapt. i would really make a point here of the commodity move you mentioned, bloomberg commodity index, frankly better mass did not go out to a new high

yesterday, but doug kass in florida notes crv, which is old-school, that does breakout to a new high. jonathan: equities breaking out little bit, up 0.5% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.6%. lisa keeps calling these nice moves. just nice moves. lisa: no, you were the one who called it that. jonathan: very frustrated, lisa. just let me get to the bond market. it is a day of celebration for the queen. [laughter] lisa: i am going to quote you on that. jonathan: yields unchanged at 2.91%. lisa: a day of celebration. 8:30 am, opec+ meeting via videoconference. how long do they actually meet for? is there more of an indication from saudi arabia that they are planning to increase production to offset a decline from russia? how does this trickle out into gas prices? there has been this disconnect between crude and the refined

good. in the u.s. we are seeing gas prices continue to climb to record highs. how much further doesn't have to go and how much can lower crude prices in the near term really change that dynamic all that much? eight: 30 a.m., u.s. initial jobless claims. how much does this follow want to this feeling of tightness we got yesterday with the jolts data, with the job openings data? two job openings nearly four every unemployed american. where are the workers? when are they going to come back? we are starting to see businesses say we don't even need the workers, we are just going to cut those positions and perhaps, even some of the people we have hired, we are overstaffed for the moment we are in. you start to see that tick up in the jobless claims we get? president biden meeting with nato secretary general jens stoltenberg. also joining the meeting is jake sullivan, national security advisor. talking about the nato summit. i want to hear about resident

biden heading to riyadh. how problematic is this given the fact that there's been a huge rift between these nations and there has been a feeling that the u.s. should not get too cozy with the crown prince mohammad bin salman? how much does that end up being a sticking point, or is there something more globally from nato? jonathan: you have to believe that he is just drowning overwhelmingly in domestic issues, and that gas price every morning, we talk about it with emory every single -- with annmarie every single morning, it is a problem with him. lisa: so do they try to band together to try to bring saudi arabia back into the fold because of that necessity? jonathan: thank you. big week ahead. kathy jones joins us now, chief fixed income strategist at charles schwab. for all this talk of peak inflation, peak yields stateside, on the other side of

the atlantic, can you make that call yet? kathy: i don't think we are quite there just because europe has been lagging the u.s. in terms of the cycle, but i don't think they are far behind either. the expectation for tighter policy in europe. i think they are lagging us, but i don't think we are quite there yet. tom: the yields that we see are a complete mystery out to third quarter. what does your top end look like? how far up to you frame yields could go to? kathy: when we are looking at the short end, we are still looking at the fed tightening 50 basis points in the next two meetings and probably then switching to about quarter-point increases in the fall. we see them topping out probably in that two and three quarters area. when we look to the 10 year, our

expectation is the upper end is that 3% to 3.25% area. yields converge across the curve. we are seeing a little but of inversion from five to tends. lisa: we are talking this moaning about the two-sided argument within each of these houses of x and beyond's, of whether we are to clue me or too optimistic asked -- too gloomy or too optimistic. you can take at 3% 10 year yield, but the past to get there is one paved by a fed that essentially has to end this cycle, has to create a downturn. kathy: it certainly is the way that they are talking right now and have to take them seriously. it is pretty much across the board you are hearing the need for tighter policy. i think that the cycle reminds me of the early ag's -- the early 1980's.

tom might remember this. you had high inflation, relatively healthy economy, and the idea was to really get that inflation down. voelker at the time came in and jacked up rates until we had recession. so that is kind of the risk i think if the fed goes really hard to hear, but that is certainly not the intention they have. jonathan: how achievable are these forecasts over at the federal reserve, unemployment at 3.5% this year? how achievable is that? kathy: i would say that is aspirational. [laughter] it would be surprising to me if you could have the kind of monetary policy we are getting with higher rates and qt along with a global tightening cycle and still keep unemployment near 3.5%. jonathan: do you think they should rename the summary of economic projections federal reserve aspirations? kathy: i think so.

they are never going to forecast failure, right? jonathan: so true. tom: shocked. kathy: they have to forecast what they hope happens. jonathan: thank you, kathy jones of the schwab center for financial research. the aspirations of the federal reserve. tom: there's not much to talk about here. their aspiration is to wait and wait. every central bank does this. it is allan meltzer 101. what is interesting, as we heard from vicki leavy yesterday, and this goes to james bullard, even if there is a whisper of targeting, that forces them to move higher. jonathan: do you like that line, they will never forecast failure? plenty of people doing that for them. lisa: i would say they have a credibility issue if they don't acknowledge that and indicate that that is a high likelihood. that is what we are hearing a little bit more from picture jay powell, but that is a conundrum. they can forecast failure, but it failure is a slowdown in the economy, isn't that kind of the goal right now?

what is failure right now? jonathan: the policy objective was to tighten financial conditions in a way were we don't have higher unemployment, we don't get a recession. that is really tricky. lisa: especially because right now that inflation is not coming down on its own. the labor market is not slumming on its own materially in a way that they can get the fed any comfort. what do they have to do to get to that end? jonathan: looking forward to the coverage through this morning. we will have a conversation on crude more specifically with jp morgan any moment. wti backing away from $120 earlier in the week. equities doing ok, up 0.5%. it is the oval -- it is the oil market once again the could hear attention. at ft indicating the saudi's could be getting ready to boost output. we heard from dow jones earlier this week, and hear from bloomberg, a meeting potentially between the president and the crown prince in riyadh.

tom: the meeting is important as a symbol. you wonder the calculus, the royal calculus the saudis will have. jonathan: anymore to say on the royals? tom: no, we are going down the street. i think they are on their way. jonathan: that is the coverage of the jubilee. they are going down the street. tom: you, me, and lisa. jonathan: stick around for more of this. [laughter] is that the promo? that is the promo for our jubilee coverage. they are going down the street. a familiar one was a big house at the bottom. then the family comes out on the balcony and waves at a flyby. tom: thank you. jon, such a republican. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. the price of oil is falling following a pair of reports that saudi arabia has indicated

it is ready to pump more crude due to increasing sanctions. president biden is likely to visit saudi arabia this month. that could lead to an increase in saudi oil production. soaring gas prices are hurting the president politically. sheryl sandberg helped turn facebook from a startup into a multibillion-dollar advertising powerhouse. sandberg is stepping down as chief operating officer of meta platforms after 14 years. she served as the highest profile face of the company next to ceo mark zuckerberg, but was criticized for the company's failure to rein in large-scale misinformation and privacy breaches. russia says it is ready to settle claims on bonds that were judged to have breached their terms after reaching an interest rate payment. in is an attempt to ensure a payout worth potential he billions of dollars. failure to pay occurred on credit default russia blames foreign counterparties for that delay. in tulsa, oklahoma, police say

amen killed four people at a medical building. the gunmen apparently killed himself. it is unclear what led to the attack. police say they were on the scene about three minutes after getting a report. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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>> the labor market is the tightest basically at has ever been. you can see that in the ratio of jobs to people unemployed. wage pressures will accumulate and that will keep the inflation above the 2% objective. jonathan: that was bill dudley, former new york fed president. on those job openings, 1.9 for every unemployed individual in this country right now based on the data out yesterday. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures positive 0.5% on the

s&p. our attention much of this morning so far all over the place, but in the market it is on crude. $112 wti. keep going back to those reports from bloomberg and the team in washington pointing out we could have a meeting between the president of the united states and the crown prince later this month in riyadh, saudi arabia. the other report out of open with the ft -- out of "the ft," the idea that the saudis are prepared to do more if we need them to. tom: you wonder how opec+ is in three months or six months. we all wonder about a gallon of gas as well. we are pleased to bring you christyan malek, global energy strategist at j.p. morgan securities. i want to go to jamie dimon's annual report of april of this year, his letter to shareholders where he talked about the precarious nature of the global energy supply. that supply is easy to disrupt. we should also keep in mind that as a percentage of global gdp,

oil is only about 40% of what it was in 1973, but it is still essential and critical. mr. dimon has stated there is some level of hurricane out there. in your 100 page treatise, you don't use the word hurricane, do you? christyan: we don't use the term hurricane, a fantastic analogy by mr. dimon. the key here as we look into the future, we see a world that is short oil well before we no longer needed. when we think about the deficits , it is all pointing towards a situation where basically, there will be no solution around mitigating higher prices, and particularly high inflation across energy. we are basically short all fuels, and the only one that is available even in limited context is oil.

tom: at what price brent crude per barrel does the investment incentive click in with a vengeance? christyan: i think the oil price has to be over $100 for a sustainable period. i think credibility of this asset class, covid concerns, recessionary concerns means you see a bit of paralysis in the c-suite. management doesn't want to take on a 10 to 15 your project with the risk of oil collapsing, and that paralysis means while the fair value could be closer to $80, management teams, investors are looking for a pretty big premium in order to qualify. of course, you've also got the pressure from yesterday, which also doesn't help in the context

of investing in long-term projects because if you do that, you never know if you will be in the penalty box in a few years. lisa: given this lack of investment more broadly, is the market overplaying the impact of saudi arabia increasing production? christyan: absolutely. we are running to stand still on their capacity. asher on spare capacity. -- standstill on spare capacity. you mentioned the 1970's crisis. one of the things we should attempt to get is that when we are at record low barrels of capacity as we are now, adding barrels doesn't really help mitigate or help the situation. all you are doing is effectively losing the last line of defense. it makes very little difference

whether you add barrels were not a mind that is why i think it is probably likely to keep your powder dry as probably the most appropriate strategy at this point. jonathan: one factor that some colleagues of yours have pointed out is chinese demand for russian crude, and that if they don't fill the void and by that russian crude, we could have even higher crude prices. can you walk me through the influence of that? christyan: absolutely. between production and exports, production hasn't moved lower over the past few months. however, exports are very logistically challenged. in terms of the reaction function, i look at it this way. if we move into a higher price scenario as we are calling for an we are short even more barrels, and countries need energy they can't get their hands on because they have

effectively run out of other fuels, that would change the reaction function towards getting hold of oil, and they may not have any other choice but to secure those barrels, in the event that the alternative could mean activity winding down, potential social unrest. so in other words, we should expect elasticity furthers barrels in the event of the alternative is much worse. jonathan: walk me through how to play this for the equity market. what is the best way of playing this? christyan: the best way to stay this -- to play this is stay in bullish energy equities. as opec adds barrels, say they do, we could seat we will prices at the front end move lower, but historically adding barrels and reducing spare capacity is conducive to the back end of the curve.

that is where energy equities live, at the back of the curve. if they can have more confidence the back end of the curve is going to pause above $80, by virtue of the fact that if you look into the future there are so few barrels out there, that means that should give confidence for investors to buy the equities because equities trade off the back of the curve, and that is where the lease confidence is. so we stay bullish equities and bullish companies who are most geared to wear oil and gas prices could benefit and return that cash back to shareholders. we have seen 30% in three years. jonathan: a monster rally in this equity market in that particular part of this equity market. great work, as always. love catching up with you. from j.p. morgan securities there on the path forward, the road ahead for this oil market. tom: can't say enough of the report. get the report. we protect the copyright of all of our guests. get it from j.p. morgan. whether you agree or disagree,

it is the thought-provoking report. it created a hurricane. jonathan: we turn now to our royal correspondent tom keene for the latest on the parade. tom: it is really interesting, the imagery we've got of the parade, but the queen has been alone on the balcony. we will try to get that shot for you here. all by herself. it really speaks volumes about the generational shift here that you and your family have lived. jonathan: lisa, what are you laughing at? it is an important moment. lisa: is it? the queen's alone on the back any. they are wearing hats on horses. tom: she will be joined by the minions in a moment. jonathan: the minions? it's a celebration, guys. lisa: she's not alone. she's actually with someone on that balcony, just letting you know. jonathan: this is where it's at for this coverage, isn't it? the duke of kent with the queen. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. here's the thursday morning price action, about an hour away from the economic data and america. futures positive by 0.6% on the s&p 500 get in the nasdaq 100,

up 0.7%. yields, all of this chatter about peak yields, peak inflation, the german tenure yield pushing 1.23% earlier this moring. we have not seen the high of the year. maybe we are getting closer to it. your u.s. 10 year, 2.91%. 3.20% back on may 9, and elevate sudden have another look at 3% on the tenure yield. tom: we are not there yet, but to be honest, it has been a leap up. the drama is not there. you wonder where the drama will be monday morning after the jobs report. jonathan: friday morning, jobs dropped. a little bit later, more economic data. the reaction so far has been pretty clear. the data and america pretty decent. the ism manufacturing, a nice upside surprise. job openings come down. still elevated. the quits rate speaks to that story.

1.9 jobs available for every unemployed person in this country right now, according to the data in the u.s. the story in the bond market looks like that. in the commodity market, crude lower. we back away from $120 again. $119 98 since the highs of this week, and then we pull back. several reports that maybe opec+ could push away russia and come to their own agreement on boosting output. that got a boost on a story from "the ft" suggesting that might be what we get from saudi arabia. then i think the politics important here, just the idea from the team here at bloomberg that we could get a meeting between the president of the united states and the crown prince mohamed bin salman of saudi arabia. tom: it would be a big change. i think it has been widely anticipated. we will see what happens. i'm just getting used to $100 oil. i watch my must, california -- watch mammoth, california.

it has exploded from $6.90 a gallon up to roughly $7.30 a gallon. we have never framed that in america. jonathan: we just spoke to christian melick of jp morgan, very bullish the energy story, very bullish the names that produce those goods. citi take the other side of this. you know this well. that if we face a real downdraft of economic growth, we have no business in triple digits. tom: francisco blanch scheduled to be with us later today. jonathan: wti, 112 dollars. that is across asset price action. here's a gloomy look at some single names. lisa: let's talk about supply-chain disruptions. that is what we are seeing in hewlett-packard enterprises. it is a hardware and software company, and it came out with earnings yesterday after the bell, talking about supply chain disruptions really impeding their full-year forecast. those shares down nearly 5% ahead of the opening bell. pfizer is dealing with that shot

for kids under the age of five for covid. still you are seeing a bit of softness there, and you have all year, which is interesting considering the fact that we so have covid around here. chewy, 18% gain because they are selling lots of stuff to people who still have pets and have to feed them. tom: chewy is the official feeder for the royal corgis. lisa: i highly doubt that. i'm going to go ahead and doubt that is true. we are also looking at oil stocks right now, not to discount that in any way, shape or form. i wanted to look at some of the big oil companies and how they were doing in light of the fact that you are seeing a dip in crude, about a 2.5% to 2.6% loss if you take a look at wti or brent. shares of the big oil producers in general are not down as much. occidental is down more than 2%, but chevron and exxon down

between 1% and 1.7%. how much does this really indicate the christyan malek view of things, that this is still the haven even if you think the citi ed morse view has some credence. this is the best hedge against inflation at a time when it seems like commodity prices are going to go up over the long-term, despite some barrels coming back online perhaps from saudi arabia? jonathan: what did chris verrone say this morning? overbought, not over owned. lisa: i would agree with that. a lot of people waiting for capitulation from the esg crowd to say may we have to buy these. at what point do you see that to have this particular component become a bigger one in the s&p then it has been over the past decade? jonathan: that wasn't that gloomy, tom. that was not that gloomy at all. lisa: are you disappointed? jonathan: not at all. tom: she's fired up about the jubilee. jonathan: to be honest, i don't think she is. tom: team coverage here will continue to look to london. jonathan: they can't wait.

tom: joining us now, megan greene, senior fellow, harvard kennedy school. importantly is the idea here of using the queens english. you do that with the utah desk with the word awkward -- with the word awkward. you say our awkward response to inflation on a global basis is interesting. how awkward is the federal reserve and jerome powell right now? megan: the fed is in a tough spot. we are facing indicators saying that growth is really slowing at the same time inflation is way too high by the feds standards, by everyone's standards, so the fed is stuck knowing that a lot of the drivers of inflation are supply-side and that the fed can't really do much about it, so the fed is having to hike rates and will hike rates to neutral very quickly, which is around 2.5%. there's a ways to go before the end of the year, and then i think the fed is really stuck.

they're going to pause, recognize that another 200 basis points in hikes is a lot for the economy to absorb in a short period of time and see where the data is. i think it is absolute consensus at the fed they will just go straight to neutral, and then i think they will wait and see as the rest of us will have to do as well. in all of my conversations with investors, there's been a real shift in focus away from just talking about inflation to just talking about growth over the past two weeks. the concerns about a recession are really intense among investors, and actually i think premature. i don't we are going into recession in the next 12 months. it is the 12 months after that i am worried about. jonathan: overwhelmingly the focus is on some of the output data. what did human of the ism for manufacturing yesterday? not exactly in line with what we have seen from some of the regional fed indicators. megan: i had an investor rant at me yesterday that all of the data is contradictory and they don't know what signal to read out of the noise. i think we are all feeling that

way. but i thing the ism that was fairly positive. it surprised me on the upside and suggests we are not careening towards a recession. the consumer accounts for 70% of our growth in the u.s., and consumer balance sheets are looking pretty healthy in aggregate. of course, the bottom quartile by income does not look that great. they burn through their cash buffer. but the rest of americans have a big cash cushion. companies also have a huge cash position built up, so even as rates go up and risk is all on the downside, it is going to take a while to burn through all of that cash before we really start to see individuals and companies retrench, and that is what drives us into recession. it is also worth pointing out with the jobs data coming out on friday that we have 11.5 million unfilled jobs. a to cap cachet -- a tick up in unemployment is the best indicator of recession. i just don't see that. lisa: why will they potentially

be more patient and hike rates enough and then pause? megan: i think the fed knows that their history in terms of engineering a soft landing is pretty poor, and in the past, every time they have engineered a soft landing, unemployment was actually much higher when they started, so it is much more likely that unemployment will pick up this time around is given that it is around 3.5%, near historic lows, as opposed to any past, run up limit was already higher. they don't want to cause a recession, and that is why they are fine going to neutral. that is just taking their foot off the gas pedal a bit. but once they get to neutral and they have to get into actual, significant tightening, i think they are going to be a lot more cautious. jonathan: megan greene, thank you. looking ahead to payrolls tomorrow, 3.6% on unemployment, looking for a move down to 3.5%. that is your median estimate so far. lisa: from an economic perspective it is moving in the

right direction. from the fed's perspective is moving in the wrong direction. this is the post-poll, -- the push-pull, megan saying you just have to wait, others seen more urgency to get ahead of this before becomes more entrenched. that is the polarity for the u.s. central bank that i think is import to discuss. jonathan: we can discuss the projections, or as kathy schwab called them, the fed's aspirations. they are at 3.5% year-end. 3.5% on the limit year-end again next year, and 3.5% the year after that. what did our guest say on the show several months ago when we came out with those projections? i believe diane swonk called it "fanciful." tom: i just to get is a parlor game, and with the uncertainty we have right now, i just don't even want to go there. i would state, as we have heard from a number of guests this morning, not a small matter is the opening of china. i think that has been underplayed.

i know "the economist" has a feature on the ramifications of post lockdown china. jonathan: outside of the commodity market, where do you think is underappreciated at the moment? tom: the uncertainty that is out there, people put their pants on one leg at a time. there is way too much certitude right now. i think the level of uncertainties plural is huge now. jonathan: might be backing away from the shutdown. they are not backing way from the approach, though, are they? lisa: the news out of hong kong that they are starting to quarantine again in the same kind of way. how much does this indicate basically no shift in the zero covid policy that perhaps this is a pause in some of those lockdowns, but not taking it off the table entirely? jonathan: front page of the editorial over in china today, "great achievements have been made in the defense of shanghai," in the people's daily newspaper. tom: "piggy blinders -- "peaky

blinders," they had the derby in there. is that on saturday? jonathan: have you been watching "peaky blinders?" tom: no, i know you are a fan. is the epson derby as big as they conduct eatery -- the kentucky derby? jonathan: no, we have the grand finals. can you do a "peaky blinders" accent? euro-dollar, a break of 1.07 earlier. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. the price of oil is lower today. a report from "the financial times" that saudi arabia is ready to increase production if

russia has to cut back substantially due to sanctions. resident biden is likely to visit saudi arabia this month. he will almost inevitably meet with the defect a ruler, crown prince mohammad bin salman on, who he has shunned so far. that may pave the way for an oil production boost. in ukraine, the central bank has more than doubled its benchmark interest rate in an attempt to stem inflation in the wake of the russian invasion. our in costs will raise from 10% to 25%, the highest and on the seven years. it was the first rate hike in four months. inflation in ukraine soared to 17% in may. more than 2/3 of the population probably have covid antibodies, according to the world health organization. that means they have either been infected or vaccinated. studies say that people who have both been infected and vaccinated have the best protection against severe outcomes. chase coleman's time at global management has lost now than 50%. tiger globals main hedge fund

plunged in the first quarter. they cut some of the biggest tech losers, but added others. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the business continues to be the business it has been for the last decade. sherl -- sheryl ran that very well, except for the governance part have to qualify that. you can't say anything over womanly positive or negative about sheryl sandberg. she was an astonishingly effective leader who had a major blind spot. jonathan: and she is on the way out. that is the author of "the facebook defect." the over woman conclusion is

that facebook today is what it is largely because of the influence of sheryl sandberg. the problem is, embedded in that conclusion is both an insult and a component. depends on what your -- and a complement. depends on what your perspective is. tom: we are arranging 82 gun salute for the queen coming up in about six minutes at hyde park. you wonder, would there be a gun salute admin low park for an exiting sandberg? jonathan: if you held the stock since it went public, may be. not over the last 12 months. tom: does the stock go up because of her? jonathan: a massive piece of that, an aggressive pursuit of ad revenue is because of that one individual, without a doubt. tom: true perspective from brian wieser, groupm president

of business intelligence. who will replace sheryl sandberg? brian: it is clearly not just one person repricing what sheryl sandberg had as a role. her response abilities were really just are did over the last four or five years in particular. tom: i think it is a mystery of how mr. zuckerberg runs the shop or get it is elon musk, elon musk, 24/7. how does zuckerberg run facebook, and what kind of sheryl sandberg does he need next? brian: it is interesting, five and more years ago, people like me would have been debating just how much in control was mark zuckerberg. because sandberg did have so much power and authority over so much of the business. the reality is this was zuckerberg's business and remains his. at the end of the day, people are going to execute what he want to see happen. lisa: there will be all sorts of speculation as to why she is

leaving now. she says she wants to work more on philanthropy, she once to commit herself to her new step children, etc. is there a more marked shift in meta that perhaps does not jive with the nuts and bolts approach she took? brian: i think they are clearly trying to move in directions different than anything she worked on. that is not a reason to move on, though. i think there has been enough speculation that i can only say is probably as accurate as anyone else can say in terms of whether she would have moved on had clinton won the election in 2016. maybe there would have been reasons to do something sooner because of all of the challenges they had. at the end of the day, i don't know that it is the change of business that is considered a catalyst for the change, but i think it is clear that zuckerberg wants to move the business in a different direction. the advertising is everything from a revenue perspective. it is still a really important

media partner. but at the end of the day, it is not the thing that zuckerberg is focused on. he's focused on connecting people, for good and for bad. lisa: do you think sheryl sandberg holds a lot of the blame for emphasizing ad revenue , and frankly just volume and traffic, over a lot of social concerns with respect to the influence over entire societies, as well as children? brian: there's a saying, success has 1000 fathers or mothers. the opposite is probably true. i think the consequences are widely distributed. the things we have seen out of facebook are not just one person's sponsor bill it. you could say it is mark zuckerberg's. but there are so many factors at play i don't think you could pin it on one person. jonathan: the elephant of the last 12 months is the performance of the name. it has been terrible, brutal. hyper sandler out this morning, cutting the price targets on snap come on pinterest,

downgrading to neutral from overweight off the back of what they see as slowing digital advertising spend given the headwinds of the industry. what do you make of what is going on at the moment for this name and others, exposed to the world that sheryl sandberg helped create? brian: i think the issues are one of expectations. where do you divide and distribute the blame for that one? i think the reality is they had this ridiculously strong pandemic. they did so much better than you could have realistically expected. they did catalyze some growth, but i think they capitalized in circumstances that were way outside of their control. the digitized nation -- the digitalization of the economy during the pandemic was something they benefited from. i think too few people appreciate just how difficult the comparables were for the first quarter of 2021 when they slowed down to a single-digit growth rate when they grew almost 50% at the size they are at. so there are mismatched expectations.

i am sure the company had mismatched expectations too, but the investors certainly did. jonathan: what does alphabet get right in that world? brian: first of all, they are more exposed where the economy is at this moment in time. there's more of a skew towards services rather than products. that helps. they are less dependent on e-commerce based revenue that facebook was dependent on. i think at the end of the day, and this goes to a bigger issue, google has gone through an extra generation of management. it is not an individually controlled company for practical purposes. it is professional management that is an extra generation deeper, if you will. so there is more diversification . they are just better exposed to where the economy is in general. jonathan: wonderful to catch up, as always. ryan -- brian wieser there groupm.

alphabet, they call it the start of the show. tom: this goes with david to patrick joining bloomberg this morning to the day they went public. facebook now is down to a 17% return over life of fund per year, and they are three standard deviations off the trend. i don't care who you are. if you are a ceo, that is acceptable. -- that is on a cup double. jonathan: the last -- that is unacceptable. jonathan: the last 12 months have been brutal for that name. lisa: you have companies not advertising as much because they don't have the goods to actually sell. we heard this as an excuse for snap, that basically supply chain disruptions on the lack of supply has led some companies to pull back with their advertising revenue despite the incredible demand. how much is that going to be a persistent theme? jonathan: futures up 0.5% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.7%. the price action develops as follows going into the opening dell and a little -- the opening

bell and a little but of data this afternoon. the trend yesterday but he clear. upside surprise on ism manufacturing drove yields higher, treasuries lower. every time we get a strong data point, the fed has got more work to do in the minds of this market. tom: absolutely, but we have had some week data points as well. i think it is indeterminate right now. i think we will see the beginning of two days of data that matters. there's no question about it. jonathan: on to payrolls tomorrow morning. big focus for us tomorrow morning -- big focus for us, a report here at bloomberg that we could have a meeting between the president of the united states and the crown prince of saudi arabia, mohammad bin salman. a report out of "the ft" that the saudis are getting ready to push out a little bit more. we will speak to brian nick of nuveen. this is bloomberg. ♪

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